It Was Not A False Alarm

Fears about the ability of the USWNT to go deep in this World Cup proved to be well-founded.  Though they put up a better performance, they failed to advance against Sweden on penalty kicks.  The Union did better on the PK thing and are onto the Leagues Cup quarters.  The Premier League starts Friday.  Overwhelmed by the material, we will do the best we can.

Better But Not Enough

Musovic was player of the match vs US.
Stats say she only had 3 saves but seemed like more
Creator: Robin Alam/USSF | Credit: Getty Images for USSF

The US basically pushed Sweden all over the place but could not score in 120 minutes of open play.  To wit, possession was 58/42, shots 22/9, shots on target 11/1 and xG 2.64 - .67.  So how much of the expected goal versus actual goal differential was bad finishing versus excellent keeping by Zecira Musovic?  Some of both I think.  But whatever, the failure to put the ball into the net meant it came down to penalty kicks.  And both Rapinoe and O'Hara missed.  

Not a shock that they didn't advance, though it is jolting that a team that you could historically pencil in for at least the semis in every international tournament.  The inquest is in full swing.  I must admit to surprise that as of this writing, Andonovski is still the manager.  ESPN has thoughts here and clearly put a big chunk of the blame on him.  But what about more systemic issues with US women's soccer?  A long read from Henry Bushnell here - written before the WWC started by the way- looks at why the USWNT might not be getting the best players.

Is Japan Having Fun Because They Are Winning?

Or winning because they are having fun?  Whichever, they are an enjoyable watch and my new preference to win the whole thing.  Well, them or maybe Australia.

No One Expects the Spanish Demolition (apologies to Monty Python)

Compare and contrast Spanish and US manager.  After the 0-4 pasting by Japan, he made five personnel changes and only three players were in the same position.   Fewer passes, more shots.  26 with 10 on goal.  They even shot - successfully- on their own goal, giving the Swiss their only tally of the night.

Definition of a Rout

After the 23rd minute of France's 4-0 defeat over Morocco, I went to 2x fast forward on the DVR.  After halftime I went to 4x.  And there was no reason to stop using fast forward.

  

A Half-hearted Defense of Kicks From the Spot

Two of the Round of 16 matches played extra time and went to PKs.  As noted above, Sweden advanced over the US 5-4.  England dispatched Nigeria 4-2.  

Before the England - Nigeria shootout, Aly Wagner registered her preference that they play until the there's a winner on the field.  Before the US -Sweden festivities, Alexi Lalas said essentially "it's not a coin flip, penalty kicks are a skill, some are good at it, others aren't."  Well, the same could be said of axe throwing but we don't use that to decide soccer matches that are level after extra time.  I guess at least PKs are a soccer skill.

I've come to accept that kicks from the spot are probably the best way to decide knockout matches, with the critical exception of the final in a competition.  Teams that are forced to play more than 30 minutes of extra time to get a winner are at a distinct disadvantage in subsequent rounds of the competition, which usually only have four days between matches.  Also, the extra extra time creates the likelihood of more yellow cards, which can mean that key players may be suspended for subsequent games.  I realize the argument against this is, well, just play harder and win quickly; if it took you 150 minutes to defeat somebody, you deserve to be tired for the next match.  They do it in hockey.  Yeah, except your next match is usually against the team you just played overtime against so there's no disadvantage; if it was the final match of a series, you probably have a few days before the next series starts.  I guess I feel like a long overtime match is an unlucky break and I'd rather see it not affect subsequent games.

But, all bets are off for the final.  My points don't hold up for the final match of a competition and I'd be happy to see them play as many minutes as it takes to get a winner.  

Women Behaving Badly

As we have noted, the level of s**thousery at this tournament is well below what we see in the men's game.  There are, however, exceptions.

I began the Colombia - Jamaica match as a neutral but by 20 minutes in, the Neymarish antics of the Colombians had me rooting for the ReggaeGirlz.  Every touch foul turned into minutes of writhing on the ground and requisite calls for yellow cards.  Not saying Jamaica wasn't fouling a lot, just that Colombia were looking for assault and battery charges every time.

We also had the heroine of England's big win over China, Lauren James, get a straight red for stomping on the back of a prone Nigerian player.  She was having a frustrating day no doubt but this was not a good look.  She spent a year's worth of good will in one rash moment.  The red card carries with it an automatic one-match ban but one could easily see it being increased to two or three matches.  

The good news is still that in large part this tournament has been refreshingly short on this kind of stuff.

Thank the Lord Jesus

Muy Bueno; Jesus got the winning PK

In their Round of 16 match, the Union spotted the Red Bulls an early goal (in the 4th minute) and gave up another excellent chance shortly thereafter.  I couldn't tell in the stadium but BFS Project Director Bob K reports that "it was bad enough that the crowd started yelling "hey Union, wake up, with an expletive in the middle."  Fortunately, they did and the U pretty much dominated the rest of the way.  Unfortunately, that didn't translate into shots on target right away or a goal until the 68th minute (a nice header from Harriel).  Changes to bring in Uhre and Buena energized the team and we saw a lot of McGlynn long passes to Uhre creating some great scoring chances.  We thought maybe it would translate into a game winner in regulation but they kind of lost the plot after the goal so regulation ended 1-1.

So we're on to another shoot out.  Blake had a good save on the first shot.  Tied at 3-3, it came down to Jesus Bueno to move the Union to the quarterfinals.  He buried it.  And there was much rejoicing.  This is becoming like the Carabao Cup.  I make fun of it until my team goes deep, then I start to care about it.

Stop Me If You've Heard Seen This One

So Messi was at it again, this time down in Dallas.  Scored the opener.  Helped set up another.  Then, with time running out, scored another postage stamp free kick goal - seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment - to send the match to PKs.  Miami, of course, won the shoot out and advance to the quarters.   For those keeping score at home, Messi has seven goals in his first four games for Miami.  

The Cupertino Overlords

I wish I had seen this marvelously cynical article about the Leagues Cup from Matthew DeGeorge at The Delco Times earlier.  Shockingly, it appears it's all about the money.  My favorite paragraph:

So the big question – Who cares? Well, anyone with a financial stake in MLS or Liga MX. Mexican clubs want to connect with their fans in the diaspora, hence the regular border crossings for friendlies. MLS would like to convert those fans, who love soccer but may not be attached to MLS, into supporters of their local outfits. The tournament gives Apple TV, in its first season as MLS’s broadcast partner, more games to stock its app, solidifying MLS’s role as content creator for its Cupertino overlords. And in an orgiastic instance of corporate synergy, Lionel Messi will make his debut in Leagues Cup when last-placed Inter Miami get trampled by Cruz Azul Saturday, further conning the world into paying attention. (In less cynical terms, it tightens the working bond between the three countries who will co-host the 2026 World Cup, an important accelerant for soccer in this hemisphere.)

Okay, he gets Messi and Inter Miami wrong but calling Apple the MLS's Cupertino overlords is brilliant.  

WARNING: RANT AHEAD

DeGeorge reminds us of another way the evil Apple empire has insidiously worked its way into the MLS - the three game first round playoff format coming to MLS stadiums in October.  Surely this is simply about having more product to peddle on MLS Season Pass.  Right but please don't call me Shirley.  I almost convinced myself that the three game format might not be awful because in theory it could reduce the number of upsets in the first round.  The weaker teams have to beat the better teams twice to advance, so one lucky performance will not be enough anymore.  But then I realized that in a best-of-three format you can't have draws and they won't play extra time but will go straight to penalty kicks.  So we're right back to luck, not quality, being a key factor in who advances.  Just another example of the American sports marketing philosophy:  It might be a pile of fresh cow manure but if we call it THE PLAYOFFS,  it becomes must-see sports TV.

RIP 538 Sports Forecasting

I thought they were just taking a summer break.  Nope, in June, Disney announced that they were shutting down 538 sports forecasting activities as part of the larger downsizing at the network.  This is incredibly disappointing.  They were my reliable go-to for nuanced expected goals numbers, match outcome probabilities and the projected league table.  At this point I don't see an obvious replacement.

Prognostidictions

I searched for anyone willing to project the EPL table from top to bottom.  Many give you their top four and bottom three but not too many do the whole table.  I've compiled the ones I could find to see if there's any consensus about the coming season.  Here's the spreadsheet:

Well, there certainly is consensus about the title.  And the top four too, apart from some minor shuffling of the order.  Also, not much variation through the ninth spot.  When we get below that, we start to see some wide swings.  Everton and Nottingham Forest look to be the hardest to pin down.  The seers don't show much love for newly-promoted Sheffield United and Luton Town but are optimistic that Vincent Kompany will keep Burnley in the  top flight.  

Prophylactic Sacking

On Tuesday, Wolves announced that Julen Lopetegui had been sacked left the club by mutual consent parted ways with the club reached an agreement with the club to end his nine-month tenure.  Whatever.  He is an ex-manager.  Lopetegui was clearly frustrated by the financial constraints, watching the club lose key personnel.  Guess this was a way of beating the Christmas rush.  Gary O'Neil, who was sacked at Bournemouth in June, is the new guy.  

Frankly, this is helpful to me because I always had to look up the spelling of his name.  Now, if Spurs can get a new guy, life will be much easier.

Schedulers Show No Quarter

Fox and Apple TV do.  Here's the line up for the WWC quarterfinals:

Thursday 9 pm - Spain v Netherlands

Friday 3:30 am - Japan v Sweden

Saturday 3 am - Australia v France

Saturday 6:30 am - England v Colombia

The Leagues Cup quarterfinals will also run on Friday; you'll have to make some choices there:

Friday 8 pm - Union v Queretaro

Friday 8:30 pm - Inter Miami v Charlotte

Friday 8:30 pm - Nashville v Minnesota

Friday 10:30 - LAFC v Monterey

Originally they were supposed to have some on Saturday but I think with the semis scheduled for Tuesday, they realized that a three-day turnaround was too tight.  Viewing for me will depend on which are not behind the paywall.

And of course, we have the kick off of the EPL.  Right now it looks like heavy use of Peacock.  Two best matches for my money are the BFS Derby between Newcastle and Aston Villa on Saturday at 12:30 on NBC and Chelsea - Liverpool at 11:30 Sunday on Peacock.

Things start Friday afternoon with Burnley - Man City at 3 pm on USA.  You can get up early Saturday morning to see Arsenal - Nottingham Forest on Peacock.  Four choices at 10, all on Peacock, none that tantalizing.  Everton - Fulham is probably the most competitive of the lot; Bournemouth - West Ham, Brighton - Luton Town and Sheffield United - Crystal Palace are the other options.

Add an early game Sunday at 9 on Peacock between Brentford and Tottenham, plus a Monday afternoon match at 3 on USA featuring Man United and Wolves and there's your Week 1 viewing. 

So, if you were so inclined, on Saturday you could do WWC matches at  3 am and 6:30 am, join the 7:30 am EPL match in progress, pick one of the four choices at 10 am and finish with Newcastle - Aston Villa at 12:30.  Even I'm not feeling inclined to do that.  Well, I say that now...