Doors Are Closing But Some Windows Are Still Open

The week's results closed many of the season's open doors.  The list includes:

- Man City clinching the title when Arsenal lost to Nottingham Forest

- Newcastle earning a Champions League spot with a 0-0 draw versus Leicester

- Man United wrapping up a berth in the Champions League with a 4-1 win over Chelsea

- Brighton qualifying for Europa League with a win over Southampton and a draw with Man City

- Nottingham Forest dodging the relegation bullet with the aforementioned win over Arsenal

- Chelsea ensuring that they will finish in the bottom half of the table after losing to Man City

At the same time, there are still a few windows left open, even if only a crack.  These include:

- Aston Villa, Tottenham and Brentford fighting to get (not get?) the Europa Conference League spot

- Everton, Leicester and Leeds hoping to avoid the last two relegation slots

A Lopsided Draw

Where I was when Newcastle clinched
the Champions League spot;
 kinda like the road Newcastle have been
on for the last 10 years

I did not get to see Newcastle's strange 0-0 draw with Leicester as I was hiking the Appalachian Trail. No, not that Appalachian Trail.  The real one, as seen in the picture left.  The stats are nuts - possession was 78/22, shots were 23/1, shots on target were 4/1 and xG was 2.20-.15.  Dennis, who did see the match, said it was more lopsided than that and also noted that Leicester still almost stole the win with their only shot in stoppage time.

The nature of the result did little to dampen the enthusiasm as you can see from this video from the field level as the final whistle blew.  This will be the Magpies first appearance in that competition in 20 years.  Though there is some decent money involved, the real advantage is that Newcastle can offer the prospect of Champions League football to transfer targets.  This is a much more attractive pitch than, say, come to the most northern and out-of-the-way franchise in the EPL to fight against relegation.  We're already hearing about this recruiting boost.  Great work from top management through the coaching staff to the players to get to this level faster than most predicted.

One of the Bears Stopped for Honey

A key reason that the draw with Leicester was good enough was that Aston Villa played Liverpool to a 1-1 draw.  The dropped points for Liverpool meant that Newcastle were in fact going to outrun the bear.  The match was another example of how Villa can play tough against any team any where.    Aston Villa's back line was so organized and executed the offside trap multiple times; they are so in sync, they raise their arms in unison to let the ref know it's offside.  Liverpool needed a goal in the 89th minute to even get the draw.  My text string with Dennis is littered with complaints about top six bias - I think we were both less than thrilled with some of John Brooks' calls but also the attitude of the commentators.   

Nothing Less Than They De Zerbi

The 3-1 win over Southampton essentially clinched the Europa League space for Brighton so the interesting 1-1 draw with Man City only made it official.  Roberto De Zerbi certainly showed us who wondered about the fate of Brighton after Graham Potter's departure.  Though he gets testy about it, we probably do need to cite Potter's work in bringing this franchise so far.

Recall that they came back into the Premier League at the same time as Newcastle in 2017-18.  Those early years were a struggle; their first four years went 15th, 17th, 15th and 16th.  Last year, Potter's third in charge, they flew up to 9th place with 51 points.  This year, they will finish 6th with at least 62 points.  And this progress occurred as they were losing players in the transfer market like Marc Cucurella, Yves Bissouma, Leandro Trossard, Ben White and Dan Burn.  For the last two years, they have a net transfer spend of -$85m or so.  We won't know for a few years if this will hurt them but so far, their record looks pretty good.

Ivan Who?

Brentford's Ivan Toney was recently handed an eight month suspension for breaking rules related to betting on football; details can be had here.  At the time of the suspension, Toney had 20 of Brentford's 54 goals.  It is perhaps a measure of Tottenham's difficult season that the Bees still managed three goals in Toney's absence.  The loss ended any discussion of Spurs' participation in next year's Europa League competition.  They still have an outside shot at Europa Conference League. Michael B suggests they would do well to skip Europe all together next year and work on getting things in order.

Kompany's Comin' (apologies to Poco )

Kompany set to return to EPL, this time as a manager

I forget what match it was but in one of them we saw Vincent Kompany in the stands.  The Burnley manager guided the Clarets to a quick return to the Premier League.  Their 101 points easily outdistanced second place Sheffield United by 10 points and they clinched promotion with seven matches to play.  Kompany's success got him quickly linked with a some Premier League clubs (most notably Spurs) but right now it appears he'll be staying with Burnley.

Scenarios

Everton avoid relegation for sure with win or draw; even if they lose, both Leicester and Leeds have to win.  Even if both win, Leeds have to overcome a three goal differential with Everton.  That is not as big a lift as it sounds.  If Everton lose and Leeds win, that's two right there; so if Leeds win by two or Everton lose by two, that's enough to swing the tiebreaker in Leeds' favor.  Leicester's fate is straightforward - they must win and Everton must lose. Leeds have to win and Everton must lose and the net margin has to be at least 3 goals.

For the Europa Conference League spot it's a little more complicated.  One scenario is clear; if Aston Villa win, they get the spot regardless of what Tottenham or Brentford do.  They also make it with a draw, as long as neither Spurs nor Brentford win.  And they can even make it with a loss as long as Spurs lose and Brentford don't win.  Brentford's chances are easily explained - they have to win and both Aston Villa and Tottenham have to draw or lose.  Anything else means Spurs get the berth.  Okay, more specifically, if Spurs win and Villa draw or lose, they get the spot.  Also, if they draw and Villa lose, and Brentford don't win, they have the honor of representing the EPL in the Europa League.

A More Perfect Union

I should know by now to trust 538.  They had the Union as solid favorites over New England but I was skeptical.  Though, the 3-0 final may be a bit flattering, the Union were clearly the better side.  Both teams had some good chances in a 0-0 first half.  Gazdag put the Union up in the 56th minute, taking  a throw-in from Uhre and beating Petrovic on the near post.  He also got the second after Uhre earned a PK at 71 minutes; at the stadium the call looked softish but watching replays it looks like the contact was slightly from behind, not shoulder to shoulder.  Nothing cheap about the third goal, a two on one break from Carranza and Donovan.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Check out Donovan's speed to ensure that it would be two on one and the pass that put the ball on a platter for Carranza.

Shots were 17-8 and shots on target 7-0; xG was 1.95 - 1.35.  That last number is the clue as to why the final might overstate the Union's dominance.  Zero shots on target but xG of 1.35 tells us they put some good chances wide; I can remember at least two. Overall though, this was likely the best Union outing of the year.  They have done well so far with the 5-3-2 or 3-5-2; it takes some of the defensive load off Wagner and Mbaizo freeing them to attack from the wings.  Still nine points behind Cincinnati but just four behind second place Nashville.  Things are moving in the right direction.

What About Jesus' Cat?

BFS Token Arsenal Fan Luke P sent along the picture (above) showing the dangers of phonetically typing in players' names. Close enough for Apple I guess.

  

Matches That Matter

They call it Championship Sunday but there's not so much left now.  All matches are at 11:30 on various stations in the NBC network.  All but one are on Peacock.

The two key fixtures are Aston Villa - Brighton and Everton - Bournemouth - if the two home sides win, all the other results are meaningless.  The other match ups that could matter are Leeds - Tottenham (this one is on CNBC), Brentford - Man City and Leicester - West Ham.  Though we have a rooting interest in Aston Villa, I think we'll be going with a match involving the threat of relegation, probably Everton-Bournemouth.  Hard to know exactly how motivated Villa might be to get to a third-tier European competition whereas we know Everton, under Sean Dyche, will leave nothing on the pitch.

The Richest Match in Football

Also known as the EFL Championship Promotion Playoffs - Final.  This is the match for the last spot for promotion from the Championship Division to the Premier League.  We are guaranteed a fresh face in the EPL next year as the final pits Coventry against Luton Town.  You can see that one on ESPN+ at 11:45 on Saturday.  Usually a good watch.

Another Baseball Field

Saturday also has the Union traveling to face NYCFC.  That one is at 7:30 behind Apple's paywall.  NYCFC still do not have a real home; they've merely switched from one baseball field (Yankee Stadium) to another (Citi Field).

Really?

Also, it must be close to summer because mid-week football is gone. 😔

Outrunning Two Bears

Newcastle are in third and have a better goal differential than 4th place Manchester United and 5th place Liverpool.  So, we really only need to finish ahead of one of those two.  That is, we don't need to outrun the bear, just Man U.  Except, Man United are chasing us too so that makes them a bear as well.  The task of outrunning two bears is a bit more difficult.

The 2-2 draw at Leeds on Saturday did not help matters.  Damn those relegation teams play hard.  Luck kinda evened out in this one.  Bamford had a PK saved by Pope that would have given Leeds a 2-0 leed lead.  But, after we got two PKs of our own (Wilson converted both) , Leeds got a 79th minute equalizer on a deflection.

Kieren Trippier's deliveries into the box led to two goals;
unfortunately he only gets one assist because one was an own goal.
Doesn't mean the cross wasn't good though

Thursday was much better as the Magpies were clearly the better side in a 4-1 win over Brighton at Saint James' Park.  Except, there were about 30 minutes when it didn't feel so obvious and the Seagulls possession advantage (66/34) provides part of the explanation.  Newcastle were up 2-0 at half on an own goal plus Dan Burn's first ever for Newcastle.  We make Burn's goal this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The delivery from Trippier was excellent and so was Burn's header but what we really liked was you could see what it meant to Burn, who grew up a Magpie fan.  In the best Newcastle tradition the Magpies conceded an early second half goal.  For the next 30+ minutes, Newcastle did not see all that much of the ball.  Not that Brighton were all that threatening, it was just that a draw seemed one missed tackle away.   Late goals from Wilson and Bruno salted away the three points.

Not officially over the line yet but the bears are further in the distance than they were.  A win at home versus Leicester on Monday would clinch it.  Two draws (Leicester and Chelsea) might be enough too with our goal differential.  Or, maybe Villa could beat or draw with Liverpool on Saturday?

City Poised for Another Title

With a four point lead and a game in hand, Man City are all but in as Premier League Champions again.  They were clinical enough at Goodison Park, taking the measure of Everton 3-0.  Meanwhile Arsenal were losing at home to Brighton 0-3.  City just need two points from their final three matches against Chelsea, Brighton and Brentford to seal the deal.  

Four Players and Two Chairs

Taiwo-Awoniyi delivers two more for Nottingham Forest

All of the bottom five dropped points this weekend, though some dropped more than others. Southampton lost 0-2 to Fulham and are officially toast now.  Leicester and Everton also lost.  Leeds as mentioned got a point off of Newcastle.  And Nottingham Forest gave themselves just a little more room with a 2-2 away draw at Chelsea.  That featured two more goals from Taiwo-Awoniyi, who may be remembered as the guy who kept Forest in the top tier. They have 34 points, Everton are next with 32, then Leeds with 31 and Leicester with 30.  Remaining fixtures:

Nottingham Forest - Arsenal, at Crystal Palace

Everton -  at Wolves, Bournemouth

Leeds -   at West Ham, Tottenham

Leicester -  at Newcastle, West Ham

West Ham look like the "kingmakers" now.

Three Players and Two Chairs

Five of the European spots are taken by Man City, Arsenal, Newcastle, Man United and Liverpool. That leaves basically Brighton, Tottenham and Aston Villa for one Europa League spot and one Europa Conference League (NIT Lite?) spot.  We can thank Villa's 2-1 win over Spurs for this logjam.  Dennis points out that Brighton and Villa play each other on the final Sunday.  We note that Brighton has a game in hand but it is against Man City; like walking away from the ATM with your pocket full of $20s only to be mugged?

Fourth Manager?

Hello boys, I'm back

Chelsea announced they have hired Mauricio Pochettino as the permanent replacement for Graham Potter.  Permanent doesn't seem like the right word but anyway.  Since Pochettino doesn't take over for interim manager Frank Lampard until after the season, technically Chelsea will have had just three managers this season.  As noted above, their fun season continued with a 2-2 home draw to relegation threatened Nottingham Forest. 

Manager of the Year

I was planning to discuss this anyway but the Premier League just announced the six nominees for Manager of the Year.  And you can vote if you want.  Check the link here for details; fan votes will be combined with sportswriter votes.  Your choices are Guardiola (Man City), Arteta (Arsenal), Howe (Newcastle), De Zerbi (Brighton), Emery (Aston Villa), and Silva (Fulham) 

Guardiola is a hard pass for me.  Man City won the title last year (albeit by only a point over Liverpool) but they were 19 points ahead of third.  In the offseason, they added the Norse God of Goalscoring -  the one who probably does the reverse of Jamie Tartt in Episode 7 of this season's Ted Lasso: Don't pass it threww meh, pass it to meh.  Trying to imagine Jamie Tartt with a Norwegian accent and it's not working.  Anyway, the title was City's to lose and not blowing it doesn't feel like Manager of the Year stuff to me.

The late season slump takes some of the luster of Arteta's case.  But think about where they were a few years ago.  Arteta has been guiding the Gunners slowly up the table after consecutive 8th place finishes in 19-20 (56 points) and 20-21 (61 points); last year they were 5th with 69 points and this year they have 81 points with two matches to play.  Certainly, Arteta was under the gun, so to speak, for those early years.  We had him on the endangered list and poked fun when, in December 2020, Jamie Carragher counseled patience, suggesting all Arteta needed was to pick up six or seven players in the January transfer window.  Their roster does look dramatically differently and finding Jesus didn't hurt.  We do note that Arsenal have consistently been in the top five in net transfer spend so Arteta has had resources.

Howe is like Arteta in some respects, just a shorter timetable.  Certainly, the new owners have taken some of the reins off the transfer spending and we've seen some record signings Tyneside.  But not the crazy, undisciplined spending that many expected with the PIF money.  And Howe has gotten more mileage than his predecessor out of players like Joe L Linton, Schar, Longstaff and Murphy.  

DeZerbi has done a lot with less resources than others.  In fact, over the last two years, they are net seller in the transfer market.  The argument against him is how much is he just benefiting from everything Graham Potter did during his tenure there.

Emery may be the top of my list.  This was a club that looked headed for the relegation scrap heap and is now contending for a spot in Europe.  There was some spending but one of the big ticket items (Diego Carlos) spent most of the year on the DL.  They were also a team that seemed to have no direction and Emery has them playing well enough that Villa are really in every game.

Marco Silva wasn't on my list but I can see the case for him as well.  Silva  got them out of the Championship last year and he's kept them in the top half of the table.  After a good start, I fully expected them to slide steadily down the table in the second half but it didn't happen.  Silva must have done something right, without the same transfer budget as some of the bigger clubs.

Silva and Goals

Well both the second legs of Champions League semis were busts.  I didn't hold out much hope for Inter vs Milan and pretty much nothing happened.  Inter came in with a 2-0 lead, held it for most of the match before adding an insurance goal late.

Silva: I can score too.  It's not just Haaland, DeBruyne, Foden,
Mahrez, Alvarez, Grealish and Gundogan

But Man City - Real Madrid, level at 1-1?  Big expectations that were not met.  City came out flying, with Real Madrid getting only glimpses of the other half of the pitch.  Bernardo Silva cashed in on that dominance with goals at 23 and 37 minutes.  We know RM has a history of pulling a rabbit out of their hat but this one felt over.  And it was as they added two more for a 5-1 aggregate win.

So Inter will face Man City on June 10th in Istanbul (not Constantinople),  Turkiye (not Turkey).

Attacking From Left to Right on Your Radio Dial

Saturday's Union match with Colorado was behind the paywall so I tried something new - listening on 97.5. Dave Leno and Sebastien LeToux had the call. So it's not like baseball, at least not yet.   I found it hard to translate the play-by-play into mental images.  Also, I couldn't use my own eyes to judge good plays vs bad plays, good calls vs bad calls, etc.   Take the PK call against Lowe.  Leno and LeToux thought the Union got a raw deal.  Looking at the video later, I'd say it was a tough call but if the referee called it a foul on the field, the review sure made it look like it occurred right on the line, meaning it was a PK.  There was no doubt about the goal calls.  Leno got excited enough.  Wagner's equalizer in first half stoppage time, seen here, was a bolt and a timely one at that. Leno also got appropriately worked up for Carranza's early second half tally, seen here.  One problem with the radio is that without visuals, my already faulty memory doesn't remember much except key plays.  I do remember the final was 2-1 and it was a sweet road win for the Union.

Wednesday we were freed from the tyranny of soccer behind a paywall as the home contest with DC United was available on FS1.  Though I did have plenty of visuals, all I remember now is Blake saving the Union's bacon multiple times.  The xG stats - 1.00 to 2.15 in favor of DC - provide some back up to that conclusion.  The 0-0 draw felt a touch lucky.

At first blush four out of six points doesn't sound bad. And it really isn't.  Maybe after taking all three in Colorado and coming home to face the not-so-highly-rated DC United, visions of six points danced in our head.  The good news is that we wake up to see the Union not buried too far down in the standings to recover.    

The Penultimate Match Week

The next-to-last one too.  At least as of now, every match has at least one team with something to play for.   

Start with the 7:30 Saturday match on USA with Tottenham hosting Brentford. Spurs are fighting to play Europa League, not Europa Conference League while Brentford are also mathematically not eliminated from European football yet.  Surprisingly, Spurs are only very slight favorites.  Four choices at 10 am.  Frankly, the USA option - Bournemouth vs Man United - is probably the least interesting of the lot.  Both Liverpool and Aston Villa have everything to play for but I fear that Villa might be overmatched here.  Fulham are not eliminated from European football so their match with Crystal Palace could be tight.  My choice however is very likely going to be Wolves - Everton; a win for the Toffees would make things difficult for Leeds and Leicester.  Saturday concludes with a long-lost NBC feature match at 12:30 between Nottingham Forest and Arsenal.  Not expected to be competitive but both have everything to play for.  Anything but an win for Arsenal and the title race is effectively over; Forest need anything they can get to keep Everton, Leeds and Leicester at bay.

Sunday has three more fixtures.  An early (for me anyway) match has West Ham hosting Leeds at 8:30 on USA.  Brighton and Southampton start at 9 on Peacock.  The day concludes with Man City Chelsea at 11 on USA.  I'm sure the schedule makers saw great things for this one but with Chelsea 42 points  behind the league leaders, there's not much here.  City clinch the title with a win; any dropped points for Chelsea means they finish in the bottom half of the table.

The match week finishes with Newcastle - Leicester at St. James' Park.  Hopefully this will end up as a victory lap for the Magpies.  Depending on results elsewhere, it could be the swan song for the Foxes.

Two mid-week clashes with Brighton - Man City on Wednesday at 3 pm on USA and Man United hosting Chelsea at 3 pm on Thursday on Peacock.  By my reckoning, that means EPL football for five of the next seven days.

The Union have a big match of their own Saturday at Subaru Park against second place New England.  I am completely baffled that 538 has this as 59/18/23 favor Philadelphia.  I'm hoping we can get a draw.  I will be at the Subaru so Apple TV can kiss my butt for this one... 

These Are Not the Results You Are Looking For

 apologies to Obi-wan

Except for the Union, not a great weekend.  And even that Union win was ugly.

A Hit-the-Post Kind of Fixture

This is what the aftermath of an own goal looks like
IMAGO / PA Images

I mentioned that Newcastle's history with Arsenal is worse than checkered - it's just awful.  So when Jacob Murphy hit the post in the opening minutes, the feeling of deja vu was inevitable.  It was overwhelming shortly thereafter when a call for handling in the box was overturned (correctly - damn it - as seen here) by VAR and another opportunity was lost.  By the time Odegaard scored in the 14th minute, almost completely against the run of play, the outcome seemed a foregone conclusion.  Schar's own goal at 71 minutes sealed their fate and on the face of it, the 0-2 final could hardly be a surprise.

Except there is more to the story.  Though I can't argue with the result, the match was closer than the final suggests.  Newcastle had several good scoring chances that hit the post or were saved.  So did Arsenal for that matter.  I thought the final should have been 2-3 or 3-4, which made me a bit surprised when I saw that xG was 1.7-1.1 favor the Magpies.  In short, this was not a Newcastle side that went meekly into the night.  Certainly, Newcastle have established their bona fides as a top six club right now.  The bad news is that anything less than a slot in the Champions League will feel like a letdown at this point.

Other Less Than Thrilling Results

Liverpool were the better side but Brentford made them work for the 1-0 win.  Yes, we got a lift when West Ham grabbed all three points from Man United in a 1-0 win.  But, I would rather have seen Liverpool stumble and stay farther away.  Now, 3rd through 5th (Newcastle, Man United, Liverpool) is 65, 63 and 62 points, though Liverpool have played an extra match.  While 538 has Newcastle at 92%, this is way too close.  

Also, though we didn't see it, Aston Villa lost 1-0 to Wolves.  Dennis did watch it and warned me to look elsewhere for entertainment.  This was a blow to their chances for European football, but not a knockout punch.  They are three behind 6th place Tottenham and one behind Brighton (though the Seagulls have two games in hand).  So as Lloyd Christmas would tell us, there's still a chance - no matter how much Dennis would prefer there wasn't.

Another Manic Monday (apologies to The Bangles)

Thank you to Charles III for making last Monday a bank holiday in England, meaning we got a full slate of EPL fixtures, with four of the five relegation-threatened sides in action.  And what a strange, if not always competitive, set of contests they turned out to be.  Leicester were first up against Fulham and came roaring out to a two goal deficit which grew to 4-0 by the 51st minute.  Hardly the effort you would expect against a mid-table side with so much on the line.  The final ended up 5-3 and there was a moment when a Jamie Vardy PK could have made it 4-2.  But he missed, Fulham added a fifth and the two late goals make the final look closer than it really was.

On to the south coast, where Everton did exactly what you'd expect from a bottom three side fighting for its EPL life.  They scored at 35 seconds, then used effective counterattacks to build a 3-0 by 35 minutes.  The final ended up 5-1.  The stats are most interesting; possession was 78/22, shots were 23/10, shots on target 5/5 and xG 3.35/2.1, all favor of Brighton.   It was a wide open match given that the Seagulls fell behind early.  

Deliver us from the relegation zone: Taiwo-Awonyi brace does just that
 (Image: PA)

Saving the best for last, Nottingham Forest hosted Southampton in the late game.  Forest established a 2-0 lead quickly on a brace by Taiwo-Awonyi but the Saints grabbed one back soon after to make it 2-1.  Forest got a PK before half and went to the locker room with a two-goal lead.  That didn't last long as Lyanco reduced the deficit early in the second half.  Danilo restored the cushion at 73 minutes and the match drifted into stoppage time (11 minutes of it) with the score 4-2.  James Ward-Prowse converted a PK to make things interesting but the Saints couldn't level in the remaining minutes and Forest got a 4-3 win and all three points.

Where does this leave us?  Southampton are up the English Channel without a paddle. they're eight points from safety with three to play.  Leicester and Leeds (who lost 2-1 at Man City) - 18th and 19th respectively -  have 30 points but are just two from safety; though Leeds have a worse goal differential than 17th place Everton.  Nottingham Forest have 33 points but the worst goal differential of the four.  The remaining fixtures:

Nottingham Forest - at Chelsea, Arsenal, at Crystal Palace

Everton - Man City, at Wolves, Bournemouth

Leicester -  Liverpool, at Newcastle, West Ham

Leeds -  Newcastle, at West Ham, Tottenham

Southampton - Fulham, at Brighton, Liverpool

Newcastle could play the opposite of kingmaker.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did you say that Crystal Palace missed a tap-in?

Steve: No, I said they failed to score on an Eze shot.

Saved By A Canceled Subscription

Thank you MLS Season Pass for getting me to drop my subscription so I couldn't watch whatever sport they were playing in Harrison NJ on Saturday night.  I followed the match on line and did not need video to understand how bad it was.  Selected halftime stats included one shot on goal each (and the U's was a PK), total shots were 1/9, and the Union's passing accuracy was 43%.  That last one seems impossible - it's U8 level.  So of course the score was 1-0 favor the Union.  And that ended up being the final score as well.  Get a load of these final stats; shots were 3/17, shots on goal were 2/3, possession was 47/53, passing accuracy was 52/62 (meaning the U upped their game in the second half) and fouls were 18/23 (yes 41 total fouls - surprised they even had time to pass or shoot).  According to MLS, xG was 1.1/1.8; taking out Gazdag's PK, it becomes .3/1.8

Not in the Hunt After A Shootout

Tuesday's Lamar Hunt US Open Cup match versus the Minnesota Loons, which I did stream on YouTube, was highly entertaining but ultimately unsatisfying.  The US Open Cup is the American equivalent of the FA Cup, except with way fewer teams.  Curtin went with a heavily rotated line up that worked well for a 0-0 first half.  Eventually though, they fell behind 2-0.  More regulars drifted in and they got one back before Kai Wagner put in the equalizer at 94 minutes.   The U fell behind in extra time but were kept alive again by a late free kick goal from Kai Wagner, this  week's YouTubeableMoment.  On to PKs, but the U were eventually bested 7-6.  Ironically, Wagner's was one of the misses in the shootout.

Though it's embarrassing to go out in the Round of 32, 1) they weren't alone among the better MLS teams exiting and 2) given they need to focus on the regular season, this is probably for the best.

Keep 'em Coming

A full slate for the weekend plus enough mid-week action to keep even the most serious fan happy.

Apparently Charles III only temporarily halted the 7:30 Saturday morning fixtures.  I hope he doesn't get re-elected.  Worse, the match is Leeds - Newcastle so I'll be up.  As Dennis notes, if you don't beat sides like Leeds, you can't expect to be in the Champions League.  

Curiously, we have five matches at 10 but no 12:30 feature match.  Though most involve at least one side with something to play for, some of the match-ups are more meaningful than others.  The USA game is Chelsea - Nottingham Forest but we'll probably go with Aston Villa - Tottenham; Spurs are trying to avoid the Europa Conference League and Villa still have an outside shot at one of the two secondary European competitions.  Mildly surprised to see the Villans favored here (44/32/25).  Your other choices are Crystal Palace - Bournemouth, Man United - Wolves and Southampton-Fulham.  We wouldn't mind seeing Wolves grab a point or three at Old Trafford but probably not happening.  Southampton are down to their last gasp and might see Fulham as a chance for a result, except how'd that work out for Leicester last week?

Three more on Sunday. Brentford host West Ham at 9 on Peacock (not much to play for there).  Everton take on Man City, also at 9 but on USA.  Yes, both are in need of a result but one side is much better than the other.  The 11:30 match, also on USA, is Arsenal - Brighton; the Gunners can't afford to drop points here but we wonder if Brighton might be a bit testy after their performance against Everton.  The match week concludes with Leicester hosting Liverpool Monday at 3 pm.  Like we said earlier, both teams will be desperate for a result but one side is much better.

In mid-week action, Newcastle will cash in their game in hand, playing Brighton Thursday at 2:30.  This will be tougher than Leeds but, at home, this is a match the Magpies should be winning.

Veni, vidi, Vinicius; I came, I saw, I scored
Vini Jr gives Real Madrid the lead
IMAGO/PA Images/Nick Potts

Don't forget the second leg of the two Champions League semi-finals.  Man City - Real Madrid is
perfectly poised for a cracking second leg, level at 1-1 as they head to the Etihad on Wednesday. A wonder strike from Vini was matched by an almost equally awesome take by DeBruyne.  All to play for there. Less optimistic of the chances for a good one in the other semi, Inter carry a 2-0 lead into that one and Milan didn't look all that competitive.

The Union are out in Colorado Saturday night at 9:30, then back to Subaru Park on Wednesday at 7:30 to face D.C. United.  No rest for the weary.  

That goes for us too.

Closer to Europe

Newcastle get another three but the Union fizzle in LA.

Just Give Up Already

Geez, these relegation -threatened teams don't know when to quit.  Like Everton mid-week, Southampton gave the Magpies fits, for a half anyway.  In fact, they were up 1-0 at the break.  From the second half tap though it really did feel like it was just a matter of time before Newcastle took over.  They got an equalizer from Wilson at 54 minutes.  He looked to have another at 74 minutes but it was correctly ruled out for offside.  Theo Walcott helped matters with an own goal at 79 minutes before Wilson salted things away with his second in the 81st minute.  Newcastle had 22 shots to Southampton's 4 but the most telling stat is xG at 3.5 to .6; Newcastle were definitely the better side and deserved all three points, even if it took 81 minutes to prove it.

Thankfully, there was no macarena from Wilson this time

Howe started Anthony Gordon to give him some playing time but the new guy just didn't have it, missing some golden opportunities.  Howe of course looks like a genius after subbing Wilson in at half time and getting two goals from the veteran.  Like much of the last few months, things seem to work out in our favor.  Heading into the weekend, 538 has the Magpies with a 94% chance of making Champions League.

Whither (Wither) Spurs?

Who knows what to think of Tottenham right now.  Last week they were plastered by Newcastle.  Mid-week they staged a late rally to grab a 2-2 draw with Man United.  Sunday they did the early collapse thing again, falling behind 0-3 to Liverpool in 15 minutes.  Kane grabbed one back at 40 minutes but Spurs were in a deep hole.  BFS obtained exclusive footage of Ryan Mason's halftime team talk.  They were in fact a much better side in the second half and got a goal from Son at 77 minutes.  Richarlison then leveled the match in the 93 minute and it appeared that Spurs were coming away with a point.  Before I could even text Michael B to suggest the halftime talk worked, Lucas gave the ball away and Jota had tucked the game winner past Forster in this week's YouTubeableMoment(we will discuss Klopp below).  Champions League was already gone but now a Europa League spot is in jeopardy too.

More Antics from Klopp

When Jota scored the game winner for Liverpool in stoppage time, manager Jurgen Klopp did the following:

1) sprinted through his technical area

2) pulled his hamstring

3) deliberately left his technical area

4) got right in the face of fourth official John Brooks

5) received a yellow card from Paul Tierney

Details can be had here(scroll down a bit to see the video of Klopp after the goal).  I argue that a yellow card and pulled hamstring are insufficient sanctions for what he did.  Managing behavior of players, coaches and team officials was a top theme of this year's refereeing recertification modules.  More than once, we were reminded that for team officials, actions that merit sending off include:

• deliberately leaving the technical area to:

  • - show dissent towards, or remonstrate with, a match official

  • - act in a provocative or inflammatory manner

Klopp did both.  Further, as noted in the article, Klopp insinuated that Tierney used inappropriate language when showing him the yellow card.  PGMOL heard the audio and said Tierney acted in a professional manner throughout.  Now, Klopp is saying that Tierney's words were "for me it's red but because of him [believed to be referring to Brooks] it's yellow." Actually, that's kind of weird too.  We probably won't know the extent of any further sanctions until Friday at the earliest but I hope they throw the book at him.

The Wrong Team Wore Flip-flops

Sure, Wolves are seven points clear of relegation and 538 says their chances of going down are less than 1%.  Still, that seems a touch early to be lounging in beach chairs, getting hammered 6-0 by Brighton.  Maybe the Seagulls took a closer look at the standings and realized that European football wasn't out of reach yet.  Whatever the case, that was a surprising performance from Wolves.

Brighton's hopes for Europe were bolstered (brightened?) somewhat when Aston Villa lost 0-1 to Man United at Old Trafford.  I didn't see the match but am reliably informed by Dennis that this was a classic Villa performance in which they played well enough to win or get a draw yet walked away with a narrow loss.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did you say Newcastle are on fire?

Steve: No, I said Burn has returned for Newcastle

Haaland Makes Things a Little Easier for Record Keepers

Remember the stupid asterisk after Roger Maris's 61 homers, noting that it was in 162 games versus Babe Ruth's 60 in 154 games?  The EPL has had a similar problem in that Alan Shearer and Andy Cole held the Premier League single season scoring record with 34 goals.  Problem was that they did it in 42 game seasons.  Mo Salah had 32 in a 38 game season; smaller absolute number but really superior mark given the number of games.  

Erling Haaland put an end to that dilemma with his 35th of the season against West Ham on Wednesday.  That was nice of him.  With five matches remaining he clearly has a shot at 40.  The record for the top division of English football is 60 by Dixie Dean in 1927-28 (42 game season); in the 20s and 30s, the top scorer was regularly in the mid 40s.  The last player to get over 40 was Jimmy Greaves with 41 in 60-61 (also a 42 game season).  Haaland could get that.  60? He's good, but not that good.

Five Alive to Go Down 

Allardyce: Hasn't lasted more than
 31 games in his last five tours

The point totals for 16th-20th are 30, 30, 30, 29 and 24.  They belong to Leicester, Leeds, Nottingham Forest, Everton and Southampton.  The latter are looking like a solid choice to be relegated.  Everton and Leicester had a classic relegation struggle that ended 2-2; both needed a win but couldn't afford a loss either so their struggles go on.  Leeds were crushed by Bournemouth, ensuring they are still in jeopardy, taking a hit to their goal differential in the process.  Leeds also felt the need to make their second managerial change of the season, sacking Javi Gracia in favor of the much-traveled Sam Allardyce; this will be his 13th gig in English football, 10 of them in the first division if I read his history right.  I don't really have anything against Big Sam, but this ridiculously late sacking is reason enough for me to hope Leeds go down.  

Nottingham Forest had a nightmare ending against Brentford.  Up 1-0, they concede this goal in the 82nd minute; wow, see how the last player in the wall failed to keep contact?  Things got even more cruel, as they surrendered the game winner in stoppage time; note how VAR was spared from having to make a difficult ruling on whether the keeper's vision had been obstructed by a player who looked to be offside when the replay revealed he wasn't offside to begin with.  Just brutal.

The remaining fixtures:

Leicester - at Fulham, Liverpool, at Newcastle, West Ham

Leeds - at Man City, Newcastle, at West Ham, Tottenham

Nottingham Forest - Southampton, at Chelsea, Arsenal, at Crystal Palace

Everton - at Brighton, Man City, at Wolves, Bournemouth

Southampton - at Nottingham Forest, Fulham, at Brighton, Liverpool

Just glad it isn't Newcastle this time.

In other news, Chelsea lost again, 1-3 to Arsenal. Also, Brighton and Man United played a marvelous back and forth 0-0 draw that ended 1-0 favor Brighton when Luke Shaw was called for handling after a VAR review of the last play of the match.  

To Live and Die in LA (apologies to Wang Chung)

Mbaizo's challenge got him a second yellow

Well, for the Union it was mostly the latter.  They headed out to the coast for the second leg of their Concacaf Champions League semi-final, level with LAFC 1-1.  As in the opener, they were mostly able to stay with their hosts.  Sure, LA got a goal in the 13th minute (a rebound after an amazing save by Blake), but that didn't really change the dynamics of the match; the U were going to need a goal anyway to at least force penalty kicks.  The seeds of their ultimate undoing were planted late in the first half when Olivier Mbaizo impetuously shoved an LA player and get himself a yellow; an incredibly rash move as the whistle had already blown and LA were going to get a yellow.  The second part of that act played out when Mbaizo got his second yellow in the 59th minute for a tactical foul that probably wasn't even necessary.  Things didn't deteriorate right away but LA did eventually add two late goals to make it 3-1 on the night and 4-1 on aggregate.

The yellows and late goals partially obscure what really happened here.  The Union did have a few chances and at any point, they could have made it 2-2 on aggregate with all to play for.  LaSalle's John McCarthy had a couple of  key saves, as he did in the first leg.  But before we get carried away, it's also true that the U only managed seven shots with just two on goal.  Once again, too many passes were intercepted or were just plain off-target.  Though it seemed tantalizingly within reach,  it's more likely that the goal was never coming.

We will put the rose colored glasses back on for just a minute and try to frame this as a 2-1 loss to arguably the MLS's best club.  Maybe that can translate to better play in league matches. 

The King's Reach

So the "

Charles III explains why West Ham
 have to play on Sunday instead of Saturday

Coronation of His Majesty The King and Her Majesty The Queen Consort" has forced a number of changes for this weekend's fixtures.  Apparently you can't play games in London during a coronation so some matches got moved to later in the day or to Sunday or Monday.  Who's this guy think he is anyway?  Wait, we get three games on Monday and no 7:30 Saturday fixture?  Maybe I'll vote for him next time.

We have four matches at 10 am on Saturday .  USA took Man City - Leeds but they can have it; hard to see much of a contest there.  Bournemouth - Chelsea might be closer than expected but it's for 12th in the table.  Spurs are probably slight favorites hosting Crystal Palace; Tottenham's hopes for European football hang in the balance.  Wolves  hosting Aston Villa could be a tight one too.  We'll likely make a game-time choice between those last two.

Liverpool - Brentford got moved from 7:30 to 12:30 on Saturday; okay by my to skip a 7:30 am start.  We would love to see the Bees nick a point or three from Liverpool but not holding our breath.

Newcastle - Arsenal has traditionally been an unhappy fixture for the Magpies.  However, after eight straight losses, we are now working on a streak of a win and a draw in the last two.  We would be fine with a draw; that's Sunday at 11:30 on USA.  The other match Sunday is West Ham - Man United.at 2 pm on Peacock.  

Monday is an awesome relegation fest.  Start at 10 am (yes a Monday morning fixture) with Fulham - Leicester. The Foxes might fancy their chances to grab something from this one and 538 has it as basically dead even.  Brighton - Everton follow at 12:30; with Brighton now fully engaged in a charge for a spot in Europe next year, this could be a tough match for Everton.  We close out the day with Nottingham Forest hosting Southampton at 3 pm.  This could be the death knell for the Saints.  All matches are on USA.

No EPL mid-week matches but we do have Champions League semi final first legs.  Tuesday is Real Madrid hosting Man City.  Definitely want to look in on this one.  City are probably slight favorites but it is on the road and Real Madrid have history in this competition.  Wednesday features AC Milan versus Inter Milan; this one should be close.  

The Union return to MLS action on Saturday at 7:30, traveling up the turnpike to face the Red Bulls.  This is not a great match for the Union to step back into league play.  Though the Red Bulls are in last, with just one win, they only trail the Union by two points thanks to six draws.  538 doesn't like our chances either, with NJ favored 45/27/28.  I hate thinking about settling for a draw but that might be the best we can hope for here.  It's on MLS Season Pass, which means I won't see it as I let my subscription lapse.  

Not getting too many days off from football...