Time to Dust Off the Passports?

Newcastle took a big step towards qualifying for the Champions League with a shocking 6-1 win over Spurs.  The Union looked better but still incomplete in a 4-2 home win over Toronto and a 1-1 draw with LAFC in the Champions League.  Man City look like a lock for their third straight league title.

I Don't Believe What I Just Saw

Did I do that?: Jacob Murphy reacts to his second goal in 9 minutes
Photo:SkySports

What else to say about Newcastle's 6-1 win against Tottenham in which the Magpies were up 3-0 before the 10 minute mark.  Then it was 5-0 by 21 minutes.  How does that happen?  At 538 xG says 3.05 for Newcastle, implying that maybe there was some luck there.  Jacob Murphy's opener was a tough angle and his blast from at least 25 yards out was a stunner.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment as it captures how this expected close match ended up as a rout.  First, you can see how Newcastle were in high octane mode.  Second, you can see how Spurs were surprisingly low energy and disorganized.  Lastly, Murphy's audacious strike was an example of how just about everything Newcastle did came out smelling like roses.  Not to gloat but we do offer full game highlights here for those who want to see how this unfolded or unraveled, depending on your perspective.

The Magpies are not a lock for Champions League at this point but you do have to like their odds -especially after the 4-1 win Thursday at Everton.  The Toffees' urgent pressing gave the Magpies fits and Wilson's goal at 28 minutes was definitely against the run of play.  Things stayed 1-0 for a while until Joe L Linton and Wilson scored in rapid succession at 72 and 75 minutes.  Jacob Murphy continued his scoring outbreak with a late goal to offset an Everton goal.  At 538, Newcastle are now at 94% to make Champions League.

A League of Their Own

Pretty clear how this is going for Arsenal
Photo:Michael Regan/Getty Images

The highly anticipated Arsenal- Man City match up was mostly a bust.  Sure it was only 2-0 City at
halftime but the final seemed a foregone conclusion at that point.  The 4-1 final flatters Arsenal.  They looked miles apart in quality.  Arsenal's title hopes had already taken a hit on Friday when they managed only a 3-3 draw with Southampton.  And they needed goals at 88 and 90 minutes just to get that.  Wednesday's loss can hardly be labeled a surprise.

City still trail by two points but have two games in hand.  The odds at 538 are 90/10 favor Man City.  The Gunners are a corpse that doesn't realize yet that it's dead.  

Random Observations

A crowded schedule leaves me with little time to do more than offer unconnected comments on the week.

Each of the top five relegation candidates picked up points but Leicester's four (beat Wolves, drew Leeds) and Nottingham Forest's three (beat Brighton) were most notable. The race still looks like Southampton, Everton, Leicester, Nottingham Forest and Leeds.

Chelsea had another car crash, losing 0-2 to Brentford at Stamford Bridge; with just 39 points they are not mathematically safe from relegation yet.

The FA Cup final will be a Manchester affair after City bested Sheffield United and Man United advanced on PKs over Brighton

Aston Villa got a draw versus Brentford and a win over Fulham to temporarily rise to 5th in the table; they may need to update their passports as well.

Liverpool had to work hard but did get wins over Nottingham Forest and West Ham for six points to stay just close enough to 4th to make me worried (note, not so much after Newcastle beat Everton)

Stellini did not survive the 6-1 loss to Newcastle so Spurs have their third manager of the year.  All is not lost and they aren't Chelsea but this has been a difficult year.  They did manage to scratch out a point at Old Trafford on Thursday coming back from 0-2.  Champions League is a long shot now but Europa League is still in play.

Since both Manchester sides are set to finish top four and one will be FA Cup winner, Europa League spots are likely to go the 5th and 6th place in the table.  Since Man United won the League Cup, 7th place will likely get the Europa Conference League spot.  

When 1-1 Is Not a Draw

Two trips to cold and rainy Subaru Park with mixed results.  Saturday was a mostly satisfying 4-2 win over Toronto.  This was probably the best 50 minutes we've seen from the Union as they worked the ball effortlessly in the final third while building a 4-0 lead.  Things got sloppy from there but the win was never really in doubt.

Acosta this time; another late goal from LAFC to foil Union hopes

Wednesday was a fierce contest with LAFC in the first leg of their CONCACAF Champions League semi-final.  The good news is that the U played the MLS Champions tough.  Unfortunately, they also made too many errant passes and didn't generate enough shots.  So the match dragged into the closing minutes 0-0.  The U got a big break with an LAFC handling call in the box for a PK that Gazdag converted.  A 1-0 result would have been awesome but LAFC took advantage of a deflected clearance to score a squirrely goal in stoppage time.  Wait, screwed by an LAFC stoppage time goal?  Deja vu all over again.

The problem with a 1-1 draw in this competition is that because of the away goals rule, LAFC essentially lead 2-1 heading into the second leg.  The U must score at least once in the second leg; a 0-0 result out there means they don't advance.  The bright side of Wednesday's result is that the Union came away 1-1 against a very good team and they weren't even at their best.  As in, maybe the result bodes well for improved play in the league.

Action From Here to Thursday

For some reason there's a light schedule on Saturday but a crowded Sunday 9 am slot.  Actually, that works really well for me as I will be working at the Penn Relays on Saturday.

A London derby featuring Crystal Palace and West Ham at Selhurst Park is the Saturday early bird special.  West Ham are not quite safe yet and Palace, though well-positioned, are not mathematically clear either so this should be a good derby.  Two matches at 10 including Brentford - Nottingham Forest and Brighton - Wolves.  The home sides in these two have pretty much fallen into the mid-table with not much to play for while the away clubs, especially Forest, still have relegation fears.

Four matches Sunday at 9, all with relevance at the top or bottom.  We'll be taking in Newcastle hosting Southampton, who are now most likely to be relegated.  We saw from Everton that those sides can be dangerous but the Magpies should have enough quality to prevail.  For the neutral, we're torn between Bournemouth - Leeds or Man United - Aston Villa.  Though the Cherries are seven points clear of the relegation zone, they will be tested by Leeds, who are just one point from safety; expect a fierce contest there.  The second one doesn't look as close on paper but we will be interested to see how Villa fare.  Fourth choice is Fulham - Man City; very hard to see a good contest there.  The 11:30 match is interesting with Spurs going to Anfield to face Liverpool.  This is last gasp for Europe territory for these two sides.  

Two midweek matches to finish the match week.  Monday is must-see if you like relegation battles as 18th place Leicester host 19th place Everton.  The Foxes have rebounded a bit and Everton are struggling. A win for either would be massive.  The week concludes with another London derby on Tuesday as Arsenal host Chelsea; one would think Gunners are the much more interested side for this one.

We add in a few random midweek make-up matches on Wednesday and Thursday.  Man City will attempt to cash in one of their games in hand hosting West Ham on Wednesday.  Liverpool will try to keep Europe hopes alive with a win over visiting Fulham, also on Wednesday.  Thursday sees Brighton hosting Man United.

In MLS action, the Union will not be in action this weekend.  They do have the second leg of their Champions League semi-final against LAFC Tuesday at 10 pm.

Penn Relays beckon...