Best to Be Lucky and Good

 Another fascinating week top to bottom in the EPL.  For the Union, yes on Champions League, no on MLS.  

No Killer Bees

Joe L didn't get credit for it but he created the first goal

Brentford made it very difficult but Newcastle did manage to get all three points with a 2-1 win on the road. The Magpies should have fallen behind at 29 minutes but Ivan Toney missed a PK for the first time in 33 tries. He got a second chance in first half stoppage time and did not miss this one.  Newcastle's equalizer at 54 minutes is listed as an own goal because it deflected off the defender's leg.  To be fair though,  Joe L Linton made a nice move to get free and nutmegged the defender; in other words the ball was in a dangerous spot and a goal, however credited, was deserved.  So was Esock's game winner, seen here; nice work from Wilson to set it up and a great finish from Alexander.  

Statistically the match looks pretty even; Brentford has a big advantage on xG but that's largely based on the two PKs.  Maybe a bit lucky to get all three here.  On the other hand, the second PK was the result of VAR overturning a call on the field after a lengthy review, suggesting spotty evidence for intervention.  Nothing cheap about the second goal.  Whatever.  The win keeps Newcastle third and in strong position to get a Champions League spot.   

Enough with the Apologies Already

DeZerbi to Stellini: Don't you ever...again

I hope many followed our suggestion to go with Spurs - Brighton as your 10 am viewing Saturday.  You certainly saw an exciting match with multiple talking points, even if all of those points are less than positive. 

The match hadn't even started before Brighton gaffer Roberto De Zerbi was in the face of Spurs' interim manager Cristian Stellini.  Apparently De Zerbi felt Stellini had slighted him by giving Graham Potter much of the credit for Brighton's current success.  

Son got the onfield action off to a good start with a goal at 10 minutes.  Then the issues started to pile up.  Mitoma had a goal chalked off based on the AR's call that the ball had hit his arm before he scored.  For me, the replay was inconclusive so I don't have a big problem with VAR not overturning the call.  Dunk got the equalizer that did count at 34 minutes with an excellent header from March.  Apparently, De Zerbi then added to his status as an instigator by running past Spurs' technical area during his celebration.  

In the 55th minute, Brighton had another goal overturned because it might have come off Danny Welbeck's arm.  This one feels inconsistent with the earlier handling call.  The referee had awarded the goal and the video evidence was no clearer than in Mitoma's case; VAR should have left it alone.  

More off field action at 58 minutes.  I think a foul by Romero caused tensions in the technical area finally boil over.  De Zerbi was definitely involved while Stellini stood stoically away from the fray.  Didn't help him avoid a red card though, as he was ejected for "failing to control his bench;" De Zerbi was shown red as well.  His reaction was classic - I'm just standing here minding my own business but I get the red card? 

Not done yet as in the 70th minute, Hojbjerg sure looked to have tripped Mitoma (him again) in the box.  Stuart Atwell said no; VAR Michael Salisbury declined to intervene. You can see the play here. This no-call prompted an apology from chief refereeing officer Howard Webb.  No doubt it was pretty clearly the kind of mistake that VAR is supposed to catch.  But it's still a matter of judgment as opposed to a procedural error.  And what does the apology accomplish?  Not a big fan of that type of post-match activity.

Of course the no-call gained significance when Kane deposited the game winner at 79 minutes.  Ooh, that one might have taken a slight deflection. Like Newcastle, were Tottenham lucky to get all three?  Probably.  But it happens.

Champions League Pool Dwindling

The two matches just discussed were probably less than-obvious six-pointers in the chase for the last two Champions League spot (we are conceding first two to Arsenal and Man City).  Other results also served to spread out the field.  Man United, Newcastle and Spurs all got their three points.  Brentford and Brighton lost and Liverpool drew with Arsenal.  Aston Villa, now in 6th, are getting way more than "a sniff of Europe."  Sixth would get them Europa League.  With a 29% chance of finishing 7th or better, Thursdays in Donetsk are a real possibility for them next fall.  

Low Hanging Fruit

With Gabriel Jesus playing on Easter Sunday, everybody had to get in on the act.  The announcers were tripping over themselves with comments like "Jesus has risen to the occasion" after he scored to put Arsenal up on Liverpool.  Amateurs.  We will go with our time-tested observation - Martinelli nailed the cross to Jesus for Arsenal's first goal.  Or about how - what's the difference between the disciple Peter and Liverpool keeper Alisson?  Alisson only denied Jesus once.

Arsenal seemed much too satisfied with the 2-0 lead and paid for it when Firmino tied things up late.  One point at Anfield doesn't sound awful until you think about how they dominated the first half and could only come away with a draw.  The dropped points look costly.  Man City are now favored 59/41 to win the title.

Meanwhile, on the Other Side of Town...

We're starting to see some separation at the bottom though things are still incredibly tight.  Crystal Palace and Bournemouth scored big wins over relegation rivals Leeds and Leicester.  Palace chances  of relegation dropped to less than 1% at 538, though they are still only six clear of 18th; just so many teams behind them they are probably safe.  Bournemouth got out of the bottom three but are still only three points clear.  Wolves got a big three points with the win over Chelsea while West Ham also got three with a win over Fulham.  Those two sides are now under 10% at 538.  

So that leaves the five sides who came away with nothing this weekend.  Aston Villa took their sweet time but eventually disposed of Nottingham Forest 2-0.  Everton fell to Man United and Man City had little trouble besting Southampton 4-1.  Leeds and Leicester lost to relegation rivals.  The relegation slots will likely come down to those five, plus maybe Bournemouth.  That is, we still have six serious candidates and maybe two or three more possibilities.

New Manager Thud

Frank Lampard took charge for Chelsea this weekend.  How'd that go?  Well the 1-0 loss at Wolves can't be considered a good thing.  The midweek 2-0 loss away at Real Madrid isn't that much of a surprise but neither can it be considered a change in fortune.  

Referee Protocol Violation

Haaland does not need your sympathy

Earlier this spring we discussed how proper etiquette is for the referee to wait until a player on the ground has gotten up before showing him the yellow card.  Apparently Robert Jones wasn't paying attention during that part of his training.  BFS Referee Consultant Graham R alerted us to Jones' indiscretion in showing Erling Haaland a yellow while still on his butt.  He appeared to show no sympathy either.  Graham notes that none was required because Haaland wasn't hurt plus there's no need for sympathy for a guy who's scored 43 goals in all competitions this year.  Point taken.

Reasons to Hate Apple MLS Season Pass - No.732 - Crappy Stream Quality

Saturday night we cast the stream of the Union - Cincinnati match from my computer to the TV.  The picture frequently went grainy and at times froze for a second or two.  Very low quality.  I suppose it's possible that it's my computer or sketchy Wifi in the house.  Except, all weekend we streamed the Masters the same way without any trouble.  I regularly stream Peacock, Paramount and ESPN+ and the picture is fine.  Not sure I'm gonna renew my subscription - but it's the only way to see the matches I don't attend.

The Rodney Dangerfield of Soccer Leagues

MLS Commissioner Don Garber

Does this say MLS or what?  This week the Premier League announced its Summer Series, with six EPL teams playing in the US in July at various US venues, including Lincoln Financial Field in Philly.  But check out the schedule.  Chelsea and Brighton will play at the Linc on Saturday July 22 at 7 pm.  On the same day, at a time yet to be determined, just a few miles south on I-95, the Union will host Tijuana at Subaru Park in a Leagues Cup match.  The Leagues Cup is a competition between clubs in MLS and Liga MX (Mexico's top division).  Okay, so the Summer Series match isn't scheduled directly against an MLS league match. On the other hand, all parties (including Apple) are promoting the Leagues Cup as a big deal, so this looks like a pretty good slap in the face. Why the eff would they schedule it on the same night?  Maybe I'll be proven wrong (it does happen) but I'm guessing the Summer Series will draw a bigger crowd at the Linc than a League Cup fixture at Subaru Park.  

A second, perhaps little noticed, slight occurred on Wednesday when The Inquirer printed the MLS standings and schedule from last week.  I almost didn't notice it myself until I saw that it showed we were playing Cincinnati, not Chicago on Saturday.  Whaddya expect from a league that sold its TV rights to an untested provider?

Wrexham United - Major Spoiler Alert - Do Not Read If You Want to Be Kept in Suspense When You Watch Season Two

So you'll remember that Wrexham United is the Vanarama National League (5th tier) club that Ryan Reynolds and Rob McIlhenny purchased last year.  Though the side were much improved, they still missed the goal of promotion to League Two, losing in the promotion playoffs.

They have continued to improved and have been 1st or 2nd for most of the season.  The bad news is that for the National League, only first place gets an automatic promotion; lower than that you go into the crapshoot playoff.  Heading into Monday's showdown with Notts County, those two sides were level on 100 points, miles ahead of 3rd place.  The match was straight from a Hollywood script.  Treat yo self and check out the highlight reel featuring the Wrexham home announcers; totally worth the 20+ minutes of viewing.  

Both feet over the line but why ruin a perfect Hollywood ending

Fortunately for Wrexham, the Hollywood version does not use VAR.  As you can see from the picture, Foster was clearly off the goal line before the kick was taken.  Did it help him?  Who knows?  But in any league with VAR, that kick gets retaken.  

The wins puts Wrexham clear at the top by three points, with a game in hand and six to play.  They are assured of a spot in the playoff semi-finals if they finish second and would be massive favorites to win the promotion playoff to gain the second promotion spot.  But, that does involve winning two pressure matches so much better to just finish first.   

Gracias To VAR

After an utterly forgettable 1-0 loss to Cincinnati on Saturday, the Union did bounce back with a 2-2 draw in the second leg with Atlas.  That secured a 3-2 win on aggregate and a spot in CONCACAF Champions League semi-finals.

Saturday's match was dismal.  Dennis reports that at halftime xG was .14 to .15.  In some ways the low number for Cincinnati indicated Curtin's strategy was working.  Huh?  Mindful of Wednesday's CL match, Curtin rested some starters and went with a defensive 5-3-2 (i.e. they parked the bus).  At about 60 minutes with the score still 0-0, Curtin changed the strategy, putting in Gazdag, Bedoya and Uhre.  That worked out well, with Cincinnati getting a goal at 69 minutes.  The goal was shrouded in confusion.  There was mayhem in the box, Blake clearly fouled an attacker, everybody played on, a shot was saved off the line but the rebound was put in the net.  Except Ted Unkel said he had blown his whistle and had not played advantage.  Therefore, the goal didn't count but Cincinnati would get a PK, which Acosta buried.  A couple of meager attempts but no real threats and another loss is in the books.  Full time xG for the Union was .65.

Two from Carranza get the U to the semis

On Wednesday, Curtin put out a full strength line up, although Wagner's fitness became an issue.  Unfortunately, they got off to a bad start, surrendering a goal at 11 minutes. But things started to look up after McGlynn connected with Carranza to level things at 1-1 in the 28th minute.  Check out the pass from McGlynn and the settle and shot from Carranza in this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Note that the play was ruled offside by the AR but VAR correctly overturned the call.  Because CONCACAF still uses the away goal rule, that tally was essentially worth two as a draw on aggregate would favor the Union.  

The bad news is that we gave away some of that cushion right before halftime.  Fortunately, Carranza restored the two goal cushion with his second in the 78th minute.  That one was also initially ruled offside before VAR overturned the call; much tighter than the first but also correct.  From there Atlas (and their fans) mostly descended into chaos and the Union held on for the 2-2 draw and 3-2 win on aggregate.  They'll face LAFC in the semis in two weeks.

And, Again

Fixtures are quite as enticing as last week but still some good stuff.  I'll be in Lewisburg for a Bucknell reunion so viewing may be limited.  I should however be able to catch the BFS Derby between Aston Villa and Newcastle at 7:30 Saturday morning on USA.  Everyone who had this down as a critical clash in the race for spots in European competitions next year, raise your hand.  Right, sure you did.  538 has this 44/30/26 favor the Magpies but I think it's closer than that.  

Five contests to choose from at 10 am Saturday.  Not clear what to recommend here, except the TV game - Spurs vs Bournemouth - looks the least competitive.  Chelsea - Brighton looks tight but not much on the line there.  Hmm, Southampton hosting Crystal Palace, that might be the one.  The Saints are running out of opportunities and this might be one of the last best ones.  Palace will be interested in cutting the cord with the relegation battle.  Everton - Fulham might be in the same vein; it looks like a good chance for the Toffees to get three points.  The fifth game is Wolves - Brentford which figures to be pretty close too.  

The Saturday "feature" match at 12:30 on NBC looks like another sacrificial lamb for Man City.  They get to host Leicester; numbers at 538 for that one are 85/4/11.  Ouch.

The 9 am Sunday match on USA is meaningful to both sides.  Host West Ham will be desperate for anything they can get while Arsenal will definitely be looking to get all three to keep their lead over City.  Side note:  I would love to be in the locker room when Arteta tells his defender that he wants him to on West Ham's midfielder like White on Rice. The 11:30 match is less attractive as Man United are on the road to Nottingham Forest, though both sides have all to play for.  Monday's fixture with Leeds taking on Liverpool doesn't sound all that exciting either, though like Leeds-Liverpool, it's important for both.

Don't forget second legs of Champions League quarterfinals.  On Tuesday, Chelsea are home versus Real Madrid but down 0-2.  Seems like a long road back.  Wednesday is Man City at Bayern; City hold a 3-0 lead and look good for the semis.  Also, second leg of a Europa League quarter final is on Thursday as Man United travel to Sevilla, level at 2-2 after Harry Maguire's own goal in stoppage time.

The Union will try to find some MLS form against Chicago Saturday night at 8:30.  They are scoreless in the last 253 minutes of MLS action.  I just hope they don't wake up from the Champions League competition to find they've thrown away any chance at the conference title.