There Are Two G's in Nutmegged

Newcastle were figuratively nutmegged by Aston Villa.  The Union rallied for a draw in Chicago.  I didn't see much so relying on highlight videos.

Outplayed, Outcoached and Outeverythinged

Unfortunately, Aston Villa's 3-0 pasting of Newcastle was one of the matches I saw in its entirety.  Don't think there was one area in which Newcastle were the better side.  The stats match what I saw.  Notably, shots on target were 2-6 and xG was .8 - 1.75.  There's still a chance that Villa will catch Newcastle in the table.

There's lots of talk about Arteta or Howe for manager of the year but how about some love for Emery?

Put A Hold on That Manager of the Year Award

Speaking of Arteta, how many points will Arsenal cough up in this stretch run?  The Gunners ran out to another fast 2-0 lead against West Ham only to see the lead wiped out by the 54th minute.  There would be no game winner so they dropped another two points while Man City were crushing Leeds.  The lead is down to four points and City have a game in hand; 538 has the odds at 65/35 favor Man City.  See Arteta's nightmare below:

via GIPHY

  

The Car Crash That Is Chelsea

The Blues were involved in two more "accidents" this week.  First, they lost to Brighton 1-2 at Stamford Bridge, solidifying their position at 11th in the table.  I didn't see the match but the stats suggest there was nothing fluky about the defeat; possession was 42/58, shots were 8/26, shots on targer were 2/10 and xG was .8 - 2.35.

Then, on Tuesday, they were unceremoniously dumped out the Champions League with an 0-2 loss to Real Madrid, also at Stamford Bridge, for an aggregate loss of 0-4.  No doubt Real Madrid are a quality side and by itself, the loss might not be so bad.  But coupled with their dismal EPL campaign, the performance had to hurt.  Barring a late miracle, Chelsea will not be playing in Europe next year.

Here, You Have It

As noted, Newcastle did nothing to solidify their chances for Champions League next year.  Though a loss is a loss, Tottenham's 2-3 defeat at home to Bournemouth was probably worse.  First, the Cherries aren't exactly top tier stuff.  Then there was the manner of the loss.  Up 1-0, then down 1-2, then a late goal from Danjuma to seemingly rescue a point only to see it slip away with a Bournemouth goal in the 95th minute.  Ouch.

Meanwhile, Man United were probably thrilled to see their key rivals thrashing around on Saturday, knowing they faced Nottingham Forest on Sunday.  Though it wasn't as ugly as it could have been, the 2-0 for the Red Devils gives them the upper hand in the race for the two open Champions League spaces.    

The Plot Thins

No one said this would be Eze; Southampton fall on
two goals from Eberechi. Photo:James Marsh/Shutterstock

Relegation is down to five serious contenders.  Crystal Palace are probably out the relegation zone's gravitational orbit after beating Southampton 2-0.  In 12th, nine points clear, Palace chances of relegation have fallen to less than 1%.  Wolves might have been a little lucky to get all three points against Brentford but they now have 34 points and 538 lists their chances of relegation at just 2%; almost done.

Bournemouth's case is a bit more curious.  Their odds were 63% as of 2/22.  Since then, they have won four and lost four yet somehow their chances are down to a mere 4%.  That's not terrible form but doesn't exactly scream pulling away from the pack.  West Ham, despite hanging in the bottom third of the table for much of the year are also down to 4% after a comeback draw against Arsenal.  Their form has been about the same as Bournemouth's - acceptable though not stellar; they do have a game in hand.

So what exactly have the bottom five been doing?  It's not pretty.

Leeds - WLDWLWLL - 10 points

Everton - LLDWDDLL - 6 points

Southampton - LWDLDLLL - 5 points

Nottingham Forest - LDLLDLLL - 2 points

Leicester - LLLDLLLL - 1 point

Sure looks like you don't have to be gangbusters to avoid the bottom.  Something like, you don't have to outrun the bear, just Southampton.

Less Than Zero Tolerance

Football authorities continue to be paper tigers when it comes to "zero tolerance" with respect to racist and anti-gay behavior.  First we had the incident where Red Bulls striker Dante Vanzeir used a racial slur in a match.  We know that he did because he admitted to it.  MLS really cracked down on him with a six-game suspension.  His coach Gerhard Struber wasn't exactly helpful in addressing the situation.  Details on that incident are here.  Credit to Red Bull fan groups for their walkout to protest the handling of the incident.

Roll ahead to the US - Mexico.  The anti-gay chant of Mexican fans is well known. In advance of Wednesday's match, US Soccer made it clear they intended to enforce the three-step in-game remedies (discussed here) and made tough talk about a ban on fan attendance in future matches.   Well, they chanted but the policy was not enforced; further, it's not clear there will be any repercussions.

Yeah, that level of commitment to these policies suggests we won't see improvement anytime soon.

 

Progress?

Youth must be served; Sullivan gets the Union going

Well, the Union did get a point this time out.  I didn't see the match but was following on my phone and did see the highlights later.  Rallying from an 0-2 deficit on the road showed some fight.  Of course, we would prefer that they stop falling behind in the first place.  Sure, one of the goals was an unlucky deflection off Glesnes but it was already 0-1 at that point.  From the highlights, it did look like an entertaining match, although at this point I think I'd gladly take an ugly or boring win.  From the reports, it sounds like we have Quinn Sullivan to thank for Carranza's equalizer and some near misses in the remainder of the second half. Check out the cross from Sullivan to Gazdag in this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Gazdag's header to Carranza was pretty good too.

They sit 10th in the table after eight matches; thinking it's still too early to hit the panic button.

Somebody Else Can Do the Apple/MLS Season Pass This Week

Well, well, well.  Turns out I'm not the only disgruntled viewer.  Check out this analysis from The Philly Soccer Page by Peter Andrews.  Okay, so it's not a rant and he's actually got some positive things to say along the way.  But he notes that it's not going all that well.  I wonder if he's an Apple user so some of the functionality things aren't as much of a problem for him.  

A Little Bit of Everything (apologies to Dawes)

We have EPL six-pointers, FA Cup semi-finals, MLS regular season, a complete slate of mid-week EPL fixtures (including 1st vs 2nd) and CONCACAF Champions League semi-final first legs.

Wilson and Almiron celebrate goal vs Spurs - hopefully
we'll see images like this on Sunday

Newcastle have played enough six-pointers the last several years but they were always about avoiding relegation.  This time it will be to bolster their chances for a Champions League spot when they host Tottenham Sunday at 9 am on USA.  Anything but a win for Spurs might leave them too much to make up.  Keeping my expectations low, going with the "we're just happy to be here" approach.  That one is easily the best of the weekend fixtures.  

Friday we can watch Arsenal - Southampton to see if the Gunners put another nail in their coffin or in Southampton's coffin.  Saturday's early bird special is Fulham hosting Leeds on USA; Leeds must be looking at this as one of their chances for three points so it could be an intense match.  Of the four 10 am games, we'll be going with Brentford - Aston Villa (Peacock) to see if the Villans are serious contenders for Europe or about catching Newcastle.  The TV game is Liverpool - Nottingham Forest which has all the makings of a blow out.  Crystal Palace - Everton isn't a bad choice as the Toffees should be up for this one.  Last option is Leicester versus Wolves; with the Foxes desperate for points and Wolves almost over the line, this one could be interesting too.  Sunday has Bournemouth - West Ham going at the same time as Newcastle - Spurs;  these are two teams almost over the line so it could be close too.

The FA Cup semis - at Wembley - have a decided Manchester feel to them.  Saturday at 11:45 City take on Sheffield United. Sunday at 11:30 Man United face off against Brighton.  A City v United final is a distinct possibility.  

Tuesday - Thursday is a complete slate of EPL matches.  Easily the biggest is Man City vs Arsenal on Wednesday at 3 pm on Peacock (? - none of Wednesday's games are on USA).  City would probably have been favored anyway but with the match at The Etihad, they are solid overdogs.   Another key match up is Tottenham - Man United on Thursday; that's a six-pointer in the race for Champions League.  Remaining contestants in that race have easier matches - at least in theory.  Newcastle travel to Everton (Thursday), Brighton are on the road to Nottingham Forest (Wednesday), Liverpool go to West Ham (Wednesday) and Aston Villa host Fulham (Tuesday).  Relegation fanatics might prefer Leeds vs Leicester on Tuesday.  Other matches include Wolves - Crystal Palace (a win for either surely puts them out of danger), Southampton - Bournemouth (chance for Saints to get some points?) and Chelsea - Brentford (a contest among mid-table teams to finish in the top half).

The Union come home to face Toronto and I have tickets which means another week where I don't have to use MLS Season Pass.  We are favored but that hasn't seemed to matter recently.  Hoping to be right back at Subaru Park on Wednesday night for the first leg of the CONCACAF Champions League semi against LAFC.  Obviously they will need a strong performance here; a clean sheet would be important since this competition still uses the away goal tiebreaker.  Geez. a 9 pm start on a school night. 

I know I left a lot out (Man City advance to CL semis, Man United dumped out of Europa League) but it's late.