Time to Dust Off the Passports?

Newcastle took a big step towards qualifying for the Champions League with a shocking 6-1 win over Spurs.  The Union looked better but still incomplete in a 4-2 home win over Toronto and a 1-1 draw with LAFC in the Champions League.  Man City look like a lock for their third straight league title.

I Don't Believe What I Just Saw

Did I do that?: Jacob Murphy reacts to his second goal in 9 minutes
Photo:SkySports

What else to say about Newcastle's 6-1 win against Tottenham in which the Magpies were up 3-0 before the 10 minute mark.  Then it was 5-0 by 21 minutes.  How does that happen?  At 538 xG says 3.05 for Newcastle, implying that maybe there was some luck there.  Jacob Murphy's opener was a tough angle and his blast from at least 25 yards out was a stunner.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment as it captures how this expected close match ended up as a rout.  First, you can see how Newcastle were in high octane mode.  Second, you can see how Spurs were surprisingly low energy and disorganized.  Lastly, Murphy's audacious strike was an example of how just about everything Newcastle did came out smelling like roses.  Not to gloat but we do offer full game highlights here for those who want to see how this unfolded or unraveled, depending on your perspective.

The Magpies are not a lock for Champions League at this point but you do have to like their odds -especially after the 4-1 win Thursday at Everton.  The Toffees' urgent pressing gave the Magpies fits and Wilson's goal at 28 minutes was definitely against the run of play.  Things stayed 1-0 for a while until Joe L Linton and Wilson scored in rapid succession at 72 and 75 minutes.  Jacob Murphy continued his scoring outbreak with a late goal to offset an Everton goal.  At 538, Newcastle are now at 94% to make Champions League.

A League of Their Own

Pretty clear how this is going for Arsenal
Photo:Michael Regan/Getty Images

The highly anticipated Arsenal- Man City match up was mostly a bust.  Sure it was only 2-0 City at
halftime but the final seemed a foregone conclusion at that point.  The 4-1 final flatters Arsenal.  They looked miles apart in quality.  Arsenal's title hopes had already taken a hit on Friday when they managed only a 3-3 draw with Southampton.  And they needed goals at 88 and 90 minutes just to get that.  Wednesday's loss can hardly be labeled a surprise.

City still trail by two points but have two games in hand.  The odds at 538 are 90/10 favor Man City.  The Gunners are a corpse that doesn't realize yet that it's dead.  

Random Observations

A crowded schedule leaves me with little time to do more than offer unconnected comments on the week.

Each of the top five relegation candidates picked up points but Leicester's four (beat Wolves, drew Leeds) and Nottingham Forest's three (beat Brighton) were most notable. The race still looks like Southampton, Everton, Leicester, Nottingham Forest and Leeds.

Chelsea had another car crash, losing 0-2 to Brentford at Stamford Bridge; with just 39 points they are not mathematically safe from relegation yet.

The FA Cup final will be a Manchester affair after City bested Sheffield United and Man United advanced on PKs over Brighton

Aston Villa got a draw versus Brentford and a win over Fulham to temporarily rise to 5th in the table; they may need to update their passports as well.

Liverpool had to work hard but did get wins over Nottingham Forest and West Ham for six points to stay just close enough to 4th to make me worried (note, not so much after Newcastle beat Everton)

Stellini did not survive the 6-1 loss to Newcastle so Spurs have their third manager of the year.  All is not lost and they aren't Chelsea but this has been a difficult year.  They did manage to scratch out a point at Old Trafford on Thursday coming back from 0-2.  Champions League is a long shot now but Europa League is still in play.

Since both Manchester sides are set to finish top four and one will be FA Cup winner, Europa League spots are likely to go the 5th and 6th place in the table.  Since Man United won the League Cup, 7th place will likely get the Europa Conference League spot.  

When 1-1 Is Not a Draw

Two trips to cold and rainy Subaru Park with mixed results.  Saturday was a mostly satisfying 4-2 win over Toronto.  This was probably the best 50 minutes we've seen from the Union as they worked the ball effortlessly in the final third while building a 4-0 lead.  Things got sloppy from there but the win was never really in doubt.

Acosta this time; another late goal from LAFC to foil Union hopes

Wednesday was a fierce contest with LAFC in the first leg of their CONCACAF Champions League semi-final.  The good news is that the U played the MLS Champions tough.  Unfortunately, they also made too many errant passes and didn't generate enough shots.  So the match dragged into the closing minutes 0-0.  The U got a big break with an LAFC handling call in the box for a PK that Gazdag converted.  A 1-0 result would have been awesome but LAFC took advantage of a deflected clearance to score a squirrely goal in stoppage time.  Wait, screwed by an LAFC stoppage time goal?  Deja vu all over again.

The problem with a 1-1 draw in this competition is that because of the away goals rule, LAFC essentially lead 2-1 heading into the second leg.  The U must score at least once in the second leg; a 0-0 result out there means they don't advance.  The bright side of Wednesday's result is that the Union came away 1-1 against a very good team and they weren't even at their best.  As in, maybe the result bodes well for improved play in the league.

Action From Here to Thursday

For some reason there's a light schedule on Saturday but a crowded Sunday 9 am slot.  Actually, that works really well for me as I will be working at the Penn Relays on Saturday.

A London derby featuring Crystal Palace and West Ham at Selhurst Park is the Saturday early bird special.  West Ham are not quite safe yet and Palace, though well-positioned, are not mathematically clear either so this should be a good derby.  Two matches at 10 including Brentford - Nottingham Forest and Brighton - Wolves.  The home sides in these two have pretty much fallen into the mid-table with not much to play for while the away clubs, especially Forest, still have relegation fears.

Four matches Sunday at 9, all with relevance at the top or bottom.  We'll be taking in Newcastle hosting Southampton, who are now most likely to be relegated.  We saw from Everton that those sides can be dangerous but the Magpies should have enough quality to prevail.  For the neutral, we're torn between Bournemouth - Leeds or Man United - Aston Villa.  Though the Cherries are seven points clear of the relegation zone, they will be tested by Leeds, who are just one point from safety; expect a fierce contest there.  The second one doesn't look as close on paper but we will be interested to see how Villa fare.  Fourth choice is Fulham - Man City; very hard to see a good contest there.  The 11:30 match is interesting with Spurs going to Anfield to face Liverpool.  This is last gasp for Europe territory for these two sides.  

Two midweek matches to finish the match week.  Monday is must-see if you like relegation battles as 18th place Leicester host 19th place Everton.  The Foxes have rebounded a bit and Everton are struggling. A win for either would be massive.  The week concludes with another London derby on Tuesday as Arsenal host Chelsea; one would think Gunners are the much more interested side for this one.

We add in a few random midweek make-up matches on Wednesday and Thursday.  Man City will attempt to cash in one of their games in hand hosting West Ham on Wednesday.  Liverpool will try to keep Europe hopes alive with a win over visiting Fulham, also on Wednesday.  Thursday sees Brighton hosting Man United.

In MLS action, the Union will not be in action this weekend.  They do have the second leg of their Champions League semi-final against LAFC Tuesday at 10 pm.

Penn Relays beckon...

There Are Two G's in Nutmegged

Newcastle were figuratively nutmegged by Aston Villa.  The Union rallied for a draw in Chicago.  I didn't see much so relying on highlight videos.

Outplayed, Outcoached and Outeverythinged

Unfortunately, Aston Villa's 3-0 pasting of Newcastle was one of the matches I saw in its entirety.  Don't think there was one area in which Newcastle were the better side.  The stats match what I saw.  Notably, shots on target were 2-6 and xG was .8 - 1.75.  There's still a chance that Villa will catch Newcastle in the table.

There's lots of talk about Arteta or Howe for manager of the year but how about some love for Emery?

Put A Hold on That Manager of the Year Award

Speaking of Arteta, how many points will Arsenal cough up in this stretch run?  The Gunners ran out to another fast 2-0 lead against West Ham only to see the lead wiped out by the 54th minute.  There would be no game winner so they dropped another two points while Man City were crushing Leeds.  The lead is down to four points and City have a game in hand; 538 has the odds at 65/35 favor Man City.  See Arteta's nightmare below:

via GIPHY

  

The Car Crash That Is Chelsea

The Blues were involved in two more "accidents" this week.  First, they lost to Brighton 1-2 at Stamford Bridge, solidifying their position at 11th in the table.  I didn't see the match but the stats suggest there was nothing fluky about the defeat; possession was 42/58, shots were 8/26, shots on targer were 2/10 and xG was .8 - 2.35.

Then, on Tuesday, they were unceremoniously dumped out the Champions League with an 0-2 loss to Real Madrid, also at Stamford Bridge, for an aggregate loss of 0-4.  No doubt Real Madrid are a quality side and by itself, the loss might not be so bad.  But coupled with their dismal EPL campaign, the performance had to hurt.  Barring a late miracle, Chelsea will not be playing in Europe next year.

Here, You Have It

As noted, Newcastle did nothing to solidify their chances for Champions League next year.  Though a loss is a loss, Tottenham's 2-3 defeat at home to Bournemouth was probably worse.  First, the Cherries aren't exactly top tier stuff.  Then there was the manner of the loss.  Up 1-0, then down 1-2, then a late goal from Danjuma to seemingly rescue a point only to see it slip away with a Bournemouth goal in the 95th minute.  Ouch.

Meanwhile, Man United were probably thrilled to see their key rivals thrashing around on Saturday, knowing they faced Nottingham Forest on Sunday.  Though it wasn't as ugly as it could have been, the 2-0 for the Red Devils gives them the upper hand in the race for the two open Champions League spaces.    

The Plot Thins

No one said this would be Eze; Southampton fall on
two goals from Eberechi. Photo:James Marsh/Shutterstock

Relegation is down to five serious contenders.  Crystal Palace are probably out the relegation zone's gravitational orbit after beating Southampton 2-0.  In 12th, nine points clear, Palace chances of relegation have fallen to less than 1%.  Wolves might have been a little lucky to get all three points against Brentford but they now have 34 points and 538 lists their chances of relegation at just 2%; almost done.

Bournemouth's case is a bit more curious.  Their odds were 63% as of 2/22.  Since then, they have won four and lost four yet somehow their chances are down to a mere 4%.  That's not terrible form but doesn't exactly scream pulling away from the pack.  West Ham, despite hanging in the bottom third of the table for much of the year are also down to 4% after a comeback draw against Arsenal.  Their form has been about the same as Bournemouth's - acceptable though not stellar; they do have a game in hand.

So what exactly have the bottom five been doing?  It's not pretty.

Leeds - WLDWLWLL - 10 points

Everton - LLDWDDLL - 6 points

Southampton - LWDLDLLL - 5 points

Nottingham Forest - LDLLDLLL - 2 points

Leicester - LLLDLLLL - 1 point

Sure looks like you don't have to be gangbusters to avoid the bottom.  Something like, you don't have to outrun the bear, just Southampton.

Less Than Zero Tolerance

Football authorities continue to be paper tigers when it comes to "zero tolerance" with respect to racist and anti-gay behavior.  First we had the incident where Red Bulls striker Dante Vanzeir used a racial slur in a match.  We know that he did because he admitted to it.  MLS really cracked down on him with a six-game suspension.  His coach Gerhard Struber wasn't exactly helpful in addressing the situation.  Details on that incident are here.  Credit to Red Bull fan groups for their walkout to protest the handling of the incident.

Roll ahead to the US - Mexico.  The anti-gay chant of Mexican fans is well known. In advance of Wednesday's match, US Soccer made it clear they intended to enforce the three-step in-game remedies (discussed here) and made tough talk about a ban on fan attendance in future matches.   Well, they chanted but the policy was not enforced; further, it's not clear there will be any repercussions.

Yeah, that level of commitment to these policies suggests we won't see improvement anytime soon.

 

Progress?

Youth must be served; Sullivan gets the Union going

Well, the Union did get a point this time out.  I didn't see the match but was following on my phone and did see the highlights later.  Rallying from an 0-2 deficit on the road showed some fight.  Of course, we would prefer that they stop falling behind in the first place.  Sure, one of the goals was an unlucky deflection off Glesnes but it was already 0-1 at that point.  From the highlights, it did look like an entertaining match, although at this point I think I'd gladly take an ugly or boring win.  From the reports, it sounds like we have Quinn Sullivan to thank for Carranza's equalizer and some near misses in the remainder of the second half. Check out the cross from Sullivan to Gazdag in this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Gazdag's header to Carranza was pretty good too.

They sit 10th in the table after eight matches; thinking it's still too early to hit the panic button.

Somebody Else Can Do the Apple/MLS Season Pass This Week

Well, well, well.  Turns out I'm not the only disgruntled viewer.  Check out this analysis from The Philly Soccer Page by Peter Andrews.  Okay, so it's not a rant and he's actually got some positive things to say along the way.  But he notes that it's not going all that well.  I wonder if he's an Apple user so some of the functionality things aren't as much of a problem for him.  

A Little Bit of Everything (apologies to Dawes)

We have EPL six-pointers, FA Cup semi-finals, MLS regular season, a complete slate of mid-week EPL fixtures (including 1st vs 2nd) and CONCACAF Champions League semi-final first legs.

Wilson and Almiron celebrate goal vs Spurs - hopefully
we'll see images like this on Sunday

Newcastle have played enough six-pointers the last several years but they were always about avoiding relegation.  This time it will be to bolster their chances for a Champions League spot when they host Tottenham Sunday at 9 am on USA.  Anything but a win for Spurs might leave them too much to make up.  Keeping my expectations low, going with the "we're just happy to be here" approach.  That one is easily the best of the weekend fixtures.  

Friday we can watch Arsenal - Southampton to see if the Gunners put another nail in their coffin or in Southampton's coffin.  Saturday's early bird special is Fulham hosting Leeds on USA; Leeds must be looking at this as one of their chances for three points so it could be an intense match.  Of the four 10 am games, we'll be going with Brentford - Aston Villa (Peacock) to see if the Villans are serious contenders for Europe or about catching Newcastle.  The TV game is Liverpool - Nottingham Forest which has all the makings of a blow out.  Crystal Palace - Everton isn't a bad choice as the Toffees should be up for this one.  Last option is Leicester versus Wolves; with the Foxes desperate for points and Wolves almost over the line, this one could be interesting too.  Sunday has Bournemouth - West Ham going at the same time as Newcastle - Spurs;  these are two teams almost over the line so it could be close too.

The FA Cup semis - at Wembley - have a decided Manchester feel to them.  Saturday at 11:45 City take on Sheffield United. Sunday at 11:30 Man United face off against Brighton.  A City v United final is a distinct possibility.  

Tuesday - Thursday is a complete slate of EPL matches.  Easily the biggest is Man City vs Arsenal on Wednesday at 3 pm on Peacock (? - none of Wednesday's games are on USA).  City would probably have been favored anyway but with the match at The Etihad, they are solid overdogs.   Another key match up is Tottenham - Man United on Thursday; that's a six-pointer in the race for Champions League.  Remaining contestants in that race have easier matches - at least in theory.  Newcastle travel to Everton (Thursday), Brighton are on the road to Nottingham Forest (Wednesday), Liverpool go to West Ham (Wednesday) and Aston Villa host Fulham (Tuesday).  Relegation fanatics might prefer Leeds vs Leicester on Tuesday.  Other matches include Wolves - Crystal Palace (a win for either surely puts them out of danger), Southampton - Bournemouth (chance for Saints to get some points?) and Chelsea - Brentford (a contest among mid-table teams to finish in the top half).

The Union come home to face Toronto and I have tickets which means another week where I don't have to use MLS Season Pass.  We are favored but that hasn't seemed to matter recently.  Hoping to be right back at Subaru Park on Wednesday night for the first leg of the CONCACAF Champions League semi against LAFC.  Obviously they will need a strong performance here; a clean sheet would be important since this competition still uses the away goal tiebreaker.  Geez. a 9 pm start on a school night. 

I know I left a lot out (Man City advance to CL semis, Man United dumped out of Europa League) but it's late.

Best to Be Lucky and Good

 Another fascinating week top to bottom in the EPL.  For the Union, yes on Champions League, no on MLS.  

No Killer Bees

Joe L didn't get credit for it but he created the first goal

Brentford made it very difficult but Newcastle did manage to get all three points with a 2-1 win on the road. The Magpies should have fallen behind at 29 minutes but Ivan Toney missed a PK for the first time in 33 tries. He got a second chance in first half stoppage time and did not miss this one.  Newcastle's equalizer at 54 minutes is listed as an own goal because it deflected off the defender's leg.  To be fair though,  Joe L Linton made a nice move to get free and nutmegged the defender; in other words the ball was in a dangerous spot and a goal, however credited, was deserved.  So was Esock's game winner, seen here; nice work from Wilson to set it up and a great finish from Alexander.  

Statistically the match looks pretty even; Brentford has a big advantage on xG but that's largely based on the two PKs.  Maybe a bit lucky to get all three here.  On the other hand, the second PK was the result of VAR overturning a call on the field after a lengthy review, suggesting spotty evidence for intervention.  Nothing cheap about the second goal.  Whatever.  The win keeps Newcastle third and in strong position to get a Champions League spot.   

Enough with the Apologies Already

DeZerbi to Stellini: Don't you ever...again

I hope many followed our suggestion to go with Spurs - Brighton as your 10 am viewing Saturday.  You certainly saw an exciting match with multiple talking points, even if all of those points are less than positive. 

The match hadn't even started before Brighton gaffer Roberto De Zerbi was in the face of Spurs' interim manager Cristian Stellini.  Apparently De Zerbi felt Stellini had slighted him by giving Graham Potter much of the credit for Brighton's current success.  

Son got the onfield action off to a good start with a goal at 10 minutes.  Then the issues started to pile up.  Mitoma had a goal chalked off based on the AR's call that the ball had hit his arm before he scored.  For me, the replay was inconclusive so I don't have a big problem with VAR not overturning the call.  Dunk got the equalizer that did count at 34 minutes with an excellent header from March.  Apparently, De Zerbi then added to his status as an instigator by running past Spurs' technical area during his celebration.  

In the 55th minute, Brighton had another goal overturned because it might have come off Danny Welbeck's arm.  This one feels inconsistent with the earlier handling call.  The referee had awarded the goal and the video evidence was no clearer than in Mitoma's case; VAR should have left it alone.  

More off field action at 58 minutes.  I think a foul by Romero caused tensions in the technical area finally boil over.  De Zerbi was definitely involved while Stellini stood stoically away from the fray.  Didn't help him avoid a red card though, as he was ejected for "failing to control his bench;" De Zerbi was shown red as well.  His reaction was classic - I'm just standing here minding my own business but I get the red card? 

Not done yet as in the 70th minute, Hojbjerg sure looked to have tripped Mitoma (him again) in the box.  Stuart Atwell said no; VAR Michael Salisbury declined to intervene. You can see the play here. This no-call prompted an apology from chief refereeing officer Howard Webb.  No doubt it was pretty clearly the kind of mistake that VAR is supposed to catch.  But it's still a matter of judgment as opposed to a procedural error.  And what does the apology accomplish?  Not a big fan of that type of post-match activity.

Of course the no-call gained significance when Kane deposited the game winner at 79 minutes.  Ooh, that one might have taken a slight deflection. Like Newcastle, were Tottenham lucky to get all three?  Probably.  But it happens.

Champions League Pool Dwindling

The two matches just discussed were probably less than-obvious six-pointers in the chase for the last two Champions League spot (we are conceding first two to Arsenal and Man City).  Other results also served to spread out the field.  Man United, Newcastle and Spurs all got their three points.  Brentford and Brighton lost and Liverpool drew with Arsenal.  Aston Villa, now in 6th, are getting way more than "a sniff of Europe."  Sixth would get them Europa League.  With a 29% chance of finishing 7th or better, Thursdays in Donetsk are a real possibility for them next fall.  

Low Hanging Fruit

With Gabriel Jesus playing on Easter Sunday, everybody had to get in on the act.  The announcers were tripping over themselves with comments like "Jesus has risen to the occasion" after he scored to put Arsenal up on Liverpool.  Amateurs.  We will go with our time-tested observation - Martinelli nailed the cross to Jesus for Arsenal's first goal.  Or about how - what's the difference between the disciple Peter and Liverpool keeper Alisson?  Alisson only denied Jesus once.

Arsenal seemed much too satisfied with the 2-0 lead and paid for it when Firmino tied things up late.  One point at Anfield doesn't sound awful until you think about how they dominated the first half and could only come away with a draw.  The dropped points look costly.  Man City are now favored 59/41 to win the title.

Meanwhile, on the Other Side of Town...

We're starting to see some separation at the bottom though things are still incredibly tight.  Crystal Palace and Bournemouth scored big wins over relegation rivals Leeds and Leicester.  Palace chances  of relegation dropped to less than 1% at 538, though they are still only six clear of 18th; just so many teams behind them they are probably safe.  Bournemouth got out of the bottom three but are still only three points clear.  Wolves got a big three points with the win over Chelsea while West Ham also got three with a win over Fulham.  Those two sides are now under 10% at 538.  

So that leaves the five sides who came away with nothing this weekend.  Aston Villa took their sweet time but eventually disposed of Nottingham Forest 2-0.  Everton fell to Man United and Man City had little trouble besting Southampton 4-1.  Leeds and Leicester lost to relegation rivals.  The relegation slots will likely come down to those five, plus maybe Bournemouth.  That is, we still have six serious candidates and maybe two or three more possibilities.

New Manager Thud

Frank Lampard took charge for Chelsea this weekend.  How'd that go?  Well the 1-0 loss at Wolves can't be considered a good thing.  The midweek 2-0 loss away at Real Madrid isn't that much of a surprise but neither can it be considered a change in fortune.  

Referee Protocol Violation

Haaland does not need your sympathy

Earlier this spring we discussed how proper etiquette is for the referee to wait until a player on the ground has gotten up before showing him the yellow card.  Apparently Robert Jones wasn't paying attention during that part of his training.  BFS Referee Consultant Graham R alerted us to Jones' indiscretion in showing Erling Haaland a yellow while still on his butt.  He appeared to show no sympathy either.  Graham notes that none was required because Haaland wasn't hurt plus there's no need for sympathy for a guy who's scored 43 goals in all competitions this year.  Point taken.

Reasons to Hate Apple MLS Season Pass - No.732 - Crappy Stream Quality

Saturday night we cast the stream of the Union - Cincinnati match from my computer to the TV.  The picture frequently went grainy and at times froze for a second or two.  Very low quality.  I suppose it's possible that it's my computer or sketchy Wifi in the house.  Except, all weekend we streamed the Masters the same way without any trouble.  I regularly stream Peacock, Paramount and ESPN+ and the picture is fine.  Not sure I'm gonna renew my subscription - but it's the only way to see the matches I don't attend.

The Rodney Dangerfield of Soccer Leagues

MLS Commissioner Don Garber

Does this say MLS or what?  This week the Premier League announced its Summer Series, with six EPL teams playing in the US in July at various US venues, including Lincoln Financial Field in Philly.  But check out the schedule.  Chelsea and Brighton will play at the Linc on Saturday July 22 at 7 pm.  On the same day, at a time yet to be determined, just a few miles south on I-95, the Union will host Tijuana at Subaru Park in a Leagues Cup match.  The Leagues Cup is a competition between clubs in MLS and Liga MX (Mexico's top division).  Okay, so the Summer Series match isn't scheduled directly against an MLS league match. On the other hand, all parties (including Apple) are promoting the Leagues Cup as a big deal, so this looks like a pretty good slap in the face. Why the eff would they schedule it on the same night?  Maybe I'll be proven wrong (it does happen) but I'm guessing the Summer Series will draw a bigger crowd at the Linc than a League Cup fixture at Subaru Park.  

A second, perhaps little noticed, slight occurred on Wednesday when The Inquirer printed the MLS standings and schedule from last week.  I almost didn't notice it myself until I saw that it showed we were playing Cincinnati, not Chicago on Saturday.  Whaddya expect from a league that sold its TV rights to an untested provider?

Wrexham United - Major Spoiler Alert - Do Not Read If You Want to Be Kept in Suspense When You Watch Season Two

So you'll remember that Wrexham United is the Vanarama National League (5th tier) club that Ryan Reynolds and Rob McIlhenny purchased last year.  Though the side were much improved, they still missed the goal of promotion to League Two, losing in the promotion playoffs.

They have continued to improved and have been 1st or 2nd for most of the season.  The bad news is that for the National League, only first place gets an automatic promotion; lower than that you go into the crapshoot playoff.  Heading into Monday's showdown with Notts County, those two sides were level on 100 points, miles ahead of 3rd place.  The match was straight from a Hollywood script.  Treat yo self and check out the highlight reel featuring the Wrexham home announcers; totally worth the 20+ minutes of viewing.  

Both feet over the line but why ruin a perfect Hollywood ending

Fortunately for Wrexham, the Hollywood version does not use VAR.  As you can see from the picture, Foster was clearly off the goal line before the kick was taken.  Did it help him?  Who knows?  But in any league with VAR, that kick gets retaken.  

The wins puts Wrexham clear at the top by three points, with a game in hand and six to play.  They are assured of a spot in the playoff semi-finals if they finish second and would be massive favorites to win the promotion playoff to gain the second promotion spot.  But, that does involve winning two pressure matches so much better to just finish first.   

Gracias To VAR

After an utterly forgettable 1-0 loss to Cincinnati on Saturday, the Union did bounce back with a 2-2 draw in the second leg with Atlas.  That secured a 3-2 win on aggregate and a spot in CONCACAF Champions League semi-finals.

Saturday's match was dismal.  Dennis reports that at halftime xG was .14 to .15.  In some ways the low number for Cincinnati indicated Curtin's strategy was working.  Huh?  Mindful of Wednesday's CL match, Curtin rested some starters and went with a defensive 5-3-2 (i.e. they parked the bus).  At about 60 minutes with the score still 0-0, Curtin changed the strategy, putting in Gazdag, Bedoya and Uhre.  That worked out well, with Cincinnati getting a goal at 69 minutes.  The goal was shrouded in confusion.  There was mayhem in the box, Blake clearly fouled an attacker, everybody played on, a shot was saved off the line but the rebound was put in the net.  Except Ted Unkel said he had blown his whistle and had not played advantage.  Therefore, the goal didn't count but Cincinnati would get a PK, which Acosta buried.  A couple of meager attempts but no real threats and another loss is in the books.  Full time xG for the Union was .65.

Two from Carranza get the U to the semis

On Wednesday, Curtin put out a full strength line up, although Wagner's fitness became an issue.  Unfortunately, they got off to a bad start, surrendering a goal at 11 minutes. But things started to look up after McGlynn connected with Carranza to level things at 1-1 in the 28th minute.  Check out the pass from McGlynn and the settle and shot from Carranza in this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Note that the play was ruled offside by the AR but VAR correctly overturned the call.  Because CONCACAF still uses the away goal rule, that tally was essentially worth two as a draw on aggregate would favor the Union.  

The bad news is that we gave away some of that cushion right before halftime.  Fortunately, Carranza restored the two goal cushion with his second in the 78th minute.  That one was also initially ruled offside before VAR overturned the call; much tighter than the first but also correct.  From there Atlas (and their fans) mostly descended into chaos and the Union held on for the 2-2 draw and 3-2 win on aggregate.  They'll face LAFC in the semis in two weeks.

And, Again

Fixtures are quite as enticing as last week but still some good stuff.  I'll be in Lewisburg for a Bucknell reunion so viewing may be limited.  I should however be able to catch the BFS Derby between Aston Villa and Newcastle at 7:30 Saturday morning on USA.  Everyone who had this down as a critical clash in the race for spots in European competitions next year, raise your hand.  Right, sure you did.  538 has this 44/30/26 favor the Magpies but I think it's closer than that.  

Five contests to choose from at 10 am Saturday.  Not clear what to recommend here, except the TV game - Spurs vs Bournemouth - looks the least competitive.  Chelsea - Brighton looks tight but not much on the line there.  Hmm, Southampton hosting Crystal Palace, that might be the one.  The Saints are running out of opportunities and this might be one of the last best ones.  Palace will be interested in cutting the cord with the relegation battle.  Everton - Fulham might be in the same vein; it looks like a good chance for the Toffees to get three points.  The fifth game is Wolves - Brentford which figures to be pretty close too.  

The Saturday "feature" match at 12:30 on NBC looks like another sacrificial lamb for Man City.  They get to host Leicester; numbers at 538 for that one are 85/4/11.  Ouch.

The 9 am Sunday match on USA is meaningful to both sides.  Host West Ham will be desperate for anything they can get while Arsenal will definitely be looking to get all three to keep their lead over City.  Side note:  I would love to be in the locker room when Arteta tells his defender that he wants him to on West Ham's midfielder like White on Rice. The 11:30 match is less attractive as Man United are on the road to Nottingham Forest, though both sides have all to play for.  Monday's fixture with Leeds taking on Liverpool doesn't sound all that exciting either, though like Leeds-Liverpool, it's important for both.

Don't forget second legs of Champions League quarterfinals.  On Tuesday, Chelsea are home versus Real Madrid but down 0-2.  Seems like a long road back.  Wednesday is Man City at Bayern; City hold a 3-0 lead and look good for the semis.  Also, second leg of a Europa League quarter final is on Thursday as Man United travel to Sevilla, level at 2-2 after Harry Maguire's own goal in stoppage time.

The Union will try to find some MLS form against Chicago Saturday night at 8:30.  They are scoreless in the last 253 minutes of MLS action.  I just hope they don't wake up from the Champions League competition to find they've thrown away any chance at the conference title.

These Are Days

 (apologies to 10,000 Maniacs - and is there a more hopeful, upbeat positive song than this?)

Newcastle and Aston Villa beat Man United and Chelsea on the same weekend.  A slew of exciting fixtures - not counting the dreadfully drab Chelsea-Liverpool contest.  The Union? Well, they didn't lose.

Pot Meet Kettle

Pre-match, Man United manager Erik ten Hag suggested Newcastle were a most "annoying" side with the worst delaying tactics in the league.  He warned his players and said the referees would need to take action "to let the game go on."  Hmm, it wasn't our keeper who was dallying over goal kicks 25 minutes into the match on Sunday.  Also, if you tuned in late without knowing who was winning, Man United's total lack of urgency compared to Newcastle's continued press would have you think it was Man United, not Newcastle, who were up 1-0.  

Trash talking aside, this was a complete performance from the Magpies.  They were the better side in the first half that ended 0-0.  With Man United's counterattacking ability, that dominance counted for nothing.  Second half was more of the same. leaving us with the feeling this could easily end 0-1 for the visitors.  Fortunately, Joe Willock made up for a couple of misses with this lovely goal, an easy choice for YouTubeableMoment.  Bruno overcooked the cross but ASM put it right back in front of the goal for Willock to finish.  Newcastle did not let up and got a late second goal from Wilson. The stat sheet confirms what we saw on the screen.  Possession was just 46/54 but shots were 22/6 and shots on target were 6/1.  Expected goals were 3.0 - .7.  In other words, they earned the three points.

Wilson makes good on a pre-match bet with West Hams'
Michail Antonio and does the Macarena after scoring

Wednesday's away fixture with West Ham had all the makings of a trap match.  Coming off a big win,
on the road, facing a side entrenched in a relegation battle.  After the 5-1 final, Dennis gave some stick for that comment.  However, if you watched, you'll know there were several moments when the match could have easily slipped away until West Ham insisted on losing.  Early on, only the post denied Bruno an own goal that would have given the Hammers a 1-0 lead.  Newcastle's second goal was initially ruled out due to offside but VAR correctly restored it.   A less than stellar effort in the box by Pope let West Ham draw closer near the end of the first half.  And the home side had more energy.  Fortunately two howlers - the first just 30 seconds into the second half - allowed Newcastle enough of a cushion to protect against their own mistakes.  The Magpies were the better side, though not by a 5-1 margin.  Trap avoided.  

Parallax Error

Now you know what parallax error is

When was the last time you heard a sports announcer refer to parallax error?  Never, right?  What the heck is parallax error anyway?  See the picture and explanation.  On Wednesday, the term came up in the course of a VAR check on an offside call.  As in, Joe L. Linton appeared to have been offside until correcting for the parallax error. I am not making this up.  

I would really like to see the IFAB add language to the Laws of the Game to say that for assistant referees to avoid parallax error it is critical that they remain in line with the next to the last defender or the ball, whichever is closest to the goal line.

"Getting A Sniff of Europe"

Aston Villa grabbed another two wins and climbed past Chelsea, Fulham, Brentford and Liverpool to go from 11th to 7th in the table.  The 2-0 win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge didn't feel all that fluky to me watching but the stats say other wise - possession was 31/69, shots 5/27, shots on target 2/8, corners 2/13 and xG .55/2.40.  Right, they scored on both their shots. Facing Leicester on Tuesday was Villa's trap match.  Leicester were indeed fierce.  The Foxes were undone when a second yellow for Tewsbury-Hall at 70 minutes gave the Villans the man advantage; Bertrand Traore got the game winner in the 87th minute.  

As a reminder, 5th place and the FA Cup winner get spots in the Europa League; the EFL Cup winner gets the Europa Conference League spot.  If the FA Cup winner and EFL Cup winner have qualified for Champions League, it's possible that 6th or 7th can get you to Europe. 

Jesus Rises Again

The man they call Jesus had two tallies against Leeds

That was the actual headline in The Independent - the newspaper that Trent Crimm used to work for on Ted Lasso.  Well, it was a little longer, something like "Gabriel Jesus rises again to bring Arsenal closer to the title but you get the point.  Certainly, Arsenal will be happy that they have a healthy Jesus for the run-in.  He scored twice in the 4-1 win over Leeds.  The victory keeps the Gunners eight up on Man City, who fell behind early to Liverpool before steadily pulling away to a 4-1 win of their own.  City do have a game in hand so the lead might be a touch exaggerated.  The two sides meet on Wednesday April 26.

Hopes Rising and Falling

The relegation battle continues to be a fascinating story.  Big winners this week were Crystal Palace. Their contest with Leicester was a classic relegation duel.  The Foxes were seconds away from grabbing a precious point on the road when Mateta did this.  Daggers.  Leicester's fortunes fell further with the 1-2 defeat to Aston Villa discussed above.  Other big losers for the weekend include Southampton (0-1 defeat to West Ham) and Nottingham Forest (1-1 draw with Wolves, 1-2 loss to Leeds).  I guess it's fair to say there was some treading water too.  West Ham, Bournemouth and Leeds all got a win and a loss.  Wolves and Everton got draws.  The spread from 12th to 20th is still tight (7 points) and Crystal Palace (in 12th) are still just three points above the relegation zone.  And 15th through 18th all have 27 points.

Flip-flops in April?

In August, the 4/4 Chelsea - Liverpool fixture had to look mouthwatering.  No one would have expected it to be a mid-table snoozer.  Which it was.  Klopp tried to send a message by keeping some key players out of the starting XI (e.g. Salah); mostly what it did was make them toothless in the attack.  Chelsea on the other hand generated buckets of chances but couldn't put the ball in the net.  Well, they did one time. Havertz didn't strike the ball well, it hit Alisson, ricocheted back to Havertz and into the goal; but it didn't count as hit struck Havertz's arm.  The season in a nutshell for them.  Anyway, it ended 0-0 and Chelsea are 11th and Liverpool 8th.  

An Interesting Triple

Dennis notes that Everton's Michael Keane had an interesting day at the office on Monday.  In the first half, he cleared a certain goal off the line to keep the score 0-0.  Then, after Doucoure's incredibly stupid indiscretion (shoving Kane in the face), Keane fouled Romero in the box; Kane converted the PK.  To complete his "triple," Keane delivered this incredible strike in 90th minute to rescue a 1-1 draw.

The Year of the Sack (apologies to Al Stewart - whoa, check out the bell bottoms and 70s hair)

Two more managers have exited.  Whether they were technically sacked we can debate but they clearly were under pressure to leave.  Brendan Rodgers departed shortly after the last minute loss to Crystal Palace; there was no new manager bounce for the Foxes as they fell to Aston Villa.  Similarly, after losing to Aston Villa, Graham Potter exited Stamford Bridge.  Questionable as to whether there was a new manager bounce there as well; sure they got a draw with Liverpool but they looked in total disarray, almost comical in how they didn't capitalize on scoring chances.  For those keeping score at home, Rodgers and Potter are the 11th and 12th managers to be sacked.  Already working on the spreadsheet for "before and after" analysis of each change.

And just as I'm wrapping up here, I read that Frank Lampard has been hired as Chelsea's caretaker manager through the end of the season.  WTAF?  Is he going to be Chelsea's Billy Martin?

Union Struggle But Don't Lose

Without this foul from the Atlas keeper, 
the match would have ended 0-0

If that sounds less than awesome, that's because it is.  A 0-0 draw at home to Sporting KC is nothing to cheer about.  They came into the match with just two points in five matches and a goal differential of -5.  A clean sheet but xG was just .85 and they did not look like a team that knows how to score.

Tuesday's first leg of the CONCACAF quarterfinal vs Atlas was a touch better but not all that much.  Atlas handed the Union a gift with a first half stoppage time DOGSO.  But, despite being up a man for the second half, they couldn't score until Gazdag slipped a PK (barely as you can here) in at the 90th minute.  Taking a 1-0 lead to Mexico doesn't sound all that safe.  

And Again

Another action packed week.

Normally, we would be pointing you to the Liverpool-Arsenal match Sunday at 11:30 (Peacock).  It's still worth watching but we don't have it as the most interesting match of the weekend.  We're going with Tottenham - Brighton (Saturday 10 am Peacock).  They are 5th and 6th in the table and chasing spots for Europe; I'm not buying this but 538 has Brighton as slight favorites (41/36/23).  Plenty to look at in the relegation struggle.  Leicester - Bournemouth (Saturday 10 am Peacock) and Leeds Crystal Palace (Sunday at 9 am on USA) come to mind.  

Early birds can rise at 7:30 Saturday (USA) to see Man United -Everton.   With six matches at 10 on Saturday, we're going to miss something.  We are required to take in Brentford - Newcastle; this is no slam dunk for the Magpies.  We already mentioned Spurs - Brighton and Leicester -Bournemouth.  The TV choice is Wolves - Chelsea.  Plus there's West Ham - Fulham; that could be quite close (side note, Mitrovic got an eight game suspension for his actions in the FA Cup match vs Man United).  Wait, almost forgot Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest; we'd love to watch to see if Aston Villa continue their drive for Europe or Nottingham Forest continue their descent into the relegation zone but doesn't look like there's room.

The "feature" NBC Saturday 12:30 is Southampton - Man City.  Even at St. Mary's, this match is likely to simply increase Southampton's likelihood of being relegated.

Champions League and Europa League action returns mid-week.  On Tuesday favored Man City has the home leg of their quarter final tie with Bayern (arguably the second favorite in the competition).  Wednesday, Chelsea face Real Madrid on the road; that doesn't sound like the antidote for a struggling side.  Thursday sees Man United hosting Sevilla in the first leg of their Europa League quarterfinal.

Two matches for the Union as well.  Saturday night at 7:30 they are in Cincinnati.  The U are looking like serious underdogs for that one.  Then on Wednesday night at 10 pm they have the second leg with Atlas.

Whew...