Somehow, It's Apple's Fault

Though I don't know why yet, I am sure that Apple is responsible for the Union's 1-2 loss at home to Orlando.  Dennis thinks that MLS might have played through the international break because Apple didn't want to lose any games. Could be.  Or maybe it was that both halves didn't start on time, waiting for Apple TV to return from commercial break.  

Except we do know why the Union lost. Defensive breakdowns, failure to capitalize on our chances and our goalie wasn't named Blake.  They were down 0-2 before Jeff H and I had finished our sausage sandwiches (which by the way are still excellent and they've solved their production problems so there's no wait - maybe the rolls could be smaller but we pick nits, and digress as well).  The opener looked to be a positioning error involving Elliott and maybe others.  Was that a result of Flach playing in Martinez's defensive midfielder spot?  The second goal might also be on Elliott though sometimes you have to tip your hat to the other guys.

Andres Perea - Player of the match for the Union?

The xG stats tell us about the missed chances; the Union had the advantage 2.1 to 1.45.  Andres Perea, in his first start for the Union, did convert one of those chances.  Check out how Perea cooly volleyed the rebound off his own header - our choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Frankly, after that goal, we expected more to come.  But they didn't.  Also note that in the second half, Orlando seemed to possess the ball for long stretches; they didn't result in many scoring opportunities but it did keep the ball out of our hands feet.  The Union managed 26 shots but only six on target.

As to the keeper comment, to be clear, we are not criticizing back-up keeper Joe Bendik.  Maybe he could have done better on the second shot but he was left exposed by his defense.  Certainly the impatient/intolerant Subaru Park crowd that was calling for Curtin to take him out in the 10th minute felt he was culpable on both goals.  That seems incredibly harsh.  Neither goal was anything close to a howler.  That is not, however, the same thing as saying having Blake in there wouldn't have made a difference.  Andre often has at least one brilliant save per game and there's a chance that it might have been on one of those two shots.

Really not inclined to be too concerned at this point.  Is it surprising that the offensive wasn't at its best with Gazdag and Carranza missing? Also, Curtin had basically no bench to go to.  BFS Property Manager Bob K notes that it's better to have these stretches in the early season.  Of course, the bad news is that a patch like this is why they didn't win the Supporters Shield last year and could cost us home field advantage for key playoff matches.

Swedes and Norwegians Can't Finnish

Rice and Kane - England's scorers vs Italy
Alessandro Garofalo/Lapresse via AP

There was a full slate of Euro Championship Qualifiers through out the break.  Saw Sweden and
Norway get shut out against Belgium and Spain respectively.  The Spaniards seemed to be more interested in actually attacking the goal instead of simply possessing the ball.  But then I read that they got shut out in Scotland so maybe their makeover is not complete.  England's 2-1 win over host Italy was a good watch.  This was England's first win there since 1961 and Italy's first loss in a Euro Qualifier in 41 matches dating back to September 2006.  England backed it up with a 2-0 home win over Ukraine in the second set matches during the break.  

The bulk of the qualifying process is done through this group stage process with the top two teams in each of eight groups advancing to the Championships. Standings after the first two match days are here. Host Germany gets an automatic spot.  The final three spots come out the UEFA Nations League play.  The whole process is spelled out here.

More Pronunciation Help

I missed this back in June but Stu Holden reminded us that they don't want to be called Turkey anymore.  It's Turkiye, pronounced tur-key-YEY.  Going to take a little work, probably will take longer than getting Kyiv right.  

Missed Sackings

For some reason, we failed to note that Crystal Palace sacked Patrick Vieira a few weeks ago and have brought back Roy Hodgson for their push to avoid relegation.  And after a week of rumors, Tottenham announced that they had come to an agreement with Antonio Conte to part ways.  Was that a sacking?  Tomato tomahto.  Cristian Stellini, assistant manager, will be the caretaker manager through the end of the season.  Rumors on the permanent replacement are all over the place. A crazy idea surfaced late in the week - Vincent Kompany.  I count 10 sackings this year, not including Graham Potter's departure from Brighton for Chelsea.

Where Were We?

Right, let's get back to those interesting races at the top and bottom of the table.  At the top end, we have 3-5 and 2-6 match ups. The former is Newcastle hosting Man United (Sunday 11:30 on USA).  I find it difficult to believe that 538 has that one at 45/30/25 favor the Magpies; a point here would be excellent.  The latter is Man City vs Liverpool (7:30 Saturday on Peacock - yeah, I'll get up early for that one). At 538 they don't give Liverpool much hope(61/19/19); I guess that's fair given the Reds inconsistent form.  However, City are likely going to be missing Haaling and Foden.

There are five 10 am Saturday matches to choose from.  USA grabbed the Arsenal-Leeds contest but there are at least two others that I find more interesting.  One is Crystal Palace vs Leicester; these are two sides in the relegation scramble and a win for either would be a big step away from trouble.  The other is Nottingham Forest hosting Wolves (or Wolverhampton, but not the Wanderers - see this week's Ted Lasso); same deal there, three points would be huge. Your other two choices are Brighton vs Brentford and Bournemouth - Fulham.  Actually, these could be good too.  Brighton and Brentford have been the Cinderella contenders for top six places; they are currently 7th and 8th, tied on points.  A loss here might turn the carriage back into a pumpkin.  Bournemouth, sitting in the relegation zone, might have some hope of taking some points off their guests, who will be missing Mitrovic as he serves the start of his three match ban (which could be extended by the way).

The Saturday 12:30 (on USA not NBC) feature match is 10th place Chelsea vs 11th place Aston Villa at Stamford Bridge.  Probably a tough road match for the Villans but we note that the two sides are tied on points.  Sunday's early fixture (9 am USA) is a relegation special with West Ham hosting Southampton; a win for either wouldn't get them out of the relegation scrap but could get them out of the bottom three.  The match week concludes on Monday with Spurs heading to Goodison Park to take on Everton; that's at 3 pm on USA.

Two days of mid-week fixtures as well.  Tuesday leaves us with some tough choices.  You could do a match between this year's top underperformers, Chelsea hosting Liverpool.  There is a key relegation contest between Leeds and Nottingham Forest (that's the one on USA).  Leicester - Aston Villa might be a good watch given the Foxes need to get points to get out of the relegation scrap.  Sorry Bournemouth - Brighton but you look like the fourth choice.

Just two more on Wednesday with Man United hosting Brentford (Peacock) and West Ham - Newcastle (USA).  This is one of the Magpies games in hand compared to Tottenham and looks like a great chance to pick up three points.  Except the Hammers will be desperate to pick up points at home.

Two fixtures for the Union too.  Saturday night (7:30 on f***ing Apple) they take on Sporting KC at Subaru Park as they try to start a new home unbeaten streak.  Tuesday night at 8 pm is the home leg of their CONCACAF Champions League quarterfinal tie with Atlas, a Mexican club currently 12th in Liga MX. 

Five days with a lot of football.  The three day break was helpful.  

Net One Point in Stoppage Time

Newcastle grabbed an extra two points in stoppage time but the Union dropped one on a goal in the 98th minute. Note that the 90th minute is not stoppage time so we're not counting the equalizer, which would have made it three points dropped in stoppage time for the Union.  Also, an interesting weekend for referees and we mean that in the worst way.

Have We Said How Much We Like Alexander Isak?

Isak volley to level things
Photograph: Carl Recine/Reuters

Pretty sure we have.  He had both goals in Newcastle's gritty 2-1 win over Nottingham Forest.  The first was in first half stoppage time, a nifty shin volley off a well-placed pass from Willock.  You can see the goal here.  Because the clip starts way back in the build-up you get to hear commentator Jim Beglin opine that Newcastle were quite capable of coming back in this match as they have displayed a certain "ruggedness" this season; well that was prescient wasn't it?  Maybe a little bit of luck here but Isak might also just be that good.  His second was a PK in stoppage time.

I thought Forest were bit heavy with the shithousery stuff but hard to blame them I guess given they are now thoroughly engaged in a relegation battle.  Good for Newcastle to, for the most part, stay above the fray and focus on getting all three points in a tough road match.  Especially pleased about this because at times, the Magpies have shown themselves more than willing to get dragged into the mud.  The hope will probably kill me but this result suggested to me that maybe top four is not out of the question.  Biggest issue I have right now is fans showing off their Geordie bellies pride by taking off their shirts.  Well, that and maybe Botman being in a little bit of a slump.

And by the way, it's still pronounced Esock.  

Shrinkage

Losses for Crystal Palace (4-1 at  Arsenal) and Wolves (2-4 at home to Leeds) coupled with Southampton's unlikely 3-3 draw with Spurs means the spread from 12th to 20th is now just four points. Everton snatched an unexpected point from Chelsea with a late goal from Simms, seen here; good result for the BubbleGums Toffees.  Leicester also got a valuable point on the road with a 1-1 draw at Brentford; that wasn't totally out of the blue.  

Early goal from Douglas Luiz helps Villa ease past Bournemouth

Bournemouth weren't likely to get more than a point at Aston Villa, so the 3-0 loss there wasn't a big
surprise but the loss did much to wash away the great feelings after their win over Liverpool.  Villa took way longer than necessary to make Dennis feel comfortable but they were dominant and deserved all three points; they are 11th, level on points with Chelsea, 11 points ahead of 12th place and 14 points clear of relegation zone.  Idle West Ham had the misfortune to drop back into the bottom three as Leeds flew past them with their win.  The good news for the Hammers is that they have two games in hand compared to four of the other eight relegation combatants and one compared to the other four.  Notice that without playing a match, their relegation percentage dropped slightly from 21 to 19.

Makes for compelling viewing.

The Conte Watch

Well, as of publication, he was still the manager of Spurs.  After his outburst, following the 3-3 draw with Southampton, we figured he was toast.  I mean, besides berating the players, he was calling into question the culture of the club under Levy's ownership.  Sounded like he was saying "sack me please." The international break would have been the perfect time to make the move but now we're almost halfway through it and he's still there.

The draw still has them in fourth but they have played two more games than Man United, Newcastle and Liverpool.

Tough Weekend To Be A Referee

Oy, where to begin?  And I only saw a handful of the controversial decisions. See ESPN's full list here. Paul Tierney certainly had a interesting day as he took charge of the Nottingham Forest - Newcastle match.  For my money, he failed to show at least a yellow card on two dangerous challenges from behind; I thought you could  have argued for red as they were scissor tackles.  Tierney got more attention for the offside call that denied a Newcastle a goal. You can see the play here. The issue is not whether Longstaff is in an offside position; he clearly is.  The question is whether he received the ball from a deliberate play by the Forest defender. This takes it out of the usual "black and white" issue on offside (i.e. it's not about the lines); it's now a subjective decision.  Though the language in Law simply says "deliberately played the ball," last July, the IAFB issued clarifying directions (available here) for that phrase.  Note that one of the clarifications is that:

The player had time to coordinate their body movement, i.e. it was not a case of instinctive stretching or jumping, or a movement that achieved limited contact/control

Hmm, the defender did look like he was stretching for the ball.  But that wasn't the call on the field.  Tierney went to the monitor at VAR's direction and overruled himself.  That seems borderline to me; was that a clear and obvious error?

That's definitely a shirt grab but did it have an impact?

In the thriller at Molineux, Wolves manager Julen Lopetegui spent much of the match being furious at Michael Salisbury.  I remember specifically the no-call in the box, probably one of those borderline that whatever the call was on the field would not have been reversed. I recall several other instances where he was less than happy with the call.  The final straw came in stoppage time.  After clawing back from a 0-3 deficit, Wolves were trying to grab the equalizer.  On a play at midfield, A Leeds defender clearly grabbed Traore's shirt.  Nothing was called, play continued and within seconds, Leeds had the insurance goal they were looking for.  The play was sent to VAR but Salisbury decided that the impact of the shirt pull was inconsequential and he let the goal stand.  I have mixed feelings about this.  I don't like shirt pulling at all and wouldn't mind a directive that says "you grab a shirt, it's a foul" regardless of whether it impedes a player; i.e, just call it every time and I'll bet the practice is greatly reduced.  But that's not the rule.  I thought Traore might have been slightly impeded but he also simply stopped, expecting to get the call.  Also,  I am happy to see a high standard for overturning calls.

Meanwhile, down at Saint Mary's, Tottenham were clinging to a 2-3 lead over Southampton when Sarr was whistled for a foul in the box against Matiland-Niles in the 90th minute.  You can see the play here, although admittedly, not a very helpful review of the incident.  It did happen right in front of referee Simon Hooper and it did withstand a VAR review.  Was it a foul?  Not completely clear to me that it was.  Should it have been overturned by VAR?  Probably not as it does look like there was some contact.  

Toughest day of the weekend probably goes to Kris Kavanaugh, although he can argue it's not my fault and we would largely agree with him.  Fulham were up 1-0 on Man United through 70 minutes of their quarterfinal FA Cup match.  A quick counter by Man United led to this play by Willian in the box and the fun began.  The initial signal from Kavanaugh was a corner but VAR was quickly in his ear and it's off to the monitor.  While he was reviewing the play and before he made a decision about Willian, Fulham manager Marco Silva leaves his technical area to approach Kavanaugh.  Silva is quickly shown the red card; since entering the review area is only a yellow, Silva must have said something as well (he later admitted that he did).  Kavanaugh completes his review and strides out on the field pointing to the spot, which means Willian is going to see red as well.  But wait, we're not done.  Mitrovic loses his cool and shoves Kavanaugh.  The trifecta is complete - three red cards on one play.  Full highlights here.  Well played Fulham.  Willian, who you could argue was a touch unlucky here, probably gets a one match ban.  Silva will get a touchline ban but we don't know the length as of yet.  Mitrovic will certainly get more than the normal three match ban and could be looking at up to 10 games.  Fine by me.  United used the two man advantage well and walked away with a 3-1 win.

And one more.  In the Montreal - Union match a late goal was initially pulled back after the referee went to the VAR and determined that the Montreal player was offside.  However, before play was restarted, he got a signal to check the play again.  Turns out he had missed a Union player near the end line so the goal stood.  To be fair, 1) the player was not visible on most of the replays and 2) he got the call right.  However, it was not a good look to see two trips to the monitor for just one play.

A Worthy Game Winner

Turning back to the prettier aspects of the beautiful game, we did watch the second half of the FA Cup quarterfinal between Sheffield United and Blackburn.  Twice Sheffield had rallied from one goal deficits and the match looked headed for extra time.  Then Tommy Doyle delivered an incredible laser of a shot in stoppage time to allow Sheffield to advance to the semi-finals.  For the combination of quality and context, we make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.

As for the other quarterfinals, we already discussed Man United's comeback win over Fulham.  We skipped both Man City's 6-0 thrashing of Burnley and Brighton's 5-0 rout of Grimsby Town.  BFS Scandinavian Correspondent Philip S notes that DeBruyne and Haaland did some cool stuff in the Man City win.

The semi-final match ups on April 22 are Man City vs Sheffield United and Brighton vs Man United.

Taking on the Evil Empire

Our struggles with Apple and their MLS Season Pass subscription service continue.  For the Montreal - Union match, I thought I had foiled their evil intentions only to have my plans foiled in the end.  I knew I was going to be out during the match, meaning that when I sat down to watch the replay later in the evening, I'd see the score.  So I started the stream before I left (it was actually still the pre-game), then hit pause, thinking that when I returned, it would pick up from where I had paused and would not see the score.  Whaddya know, it worked! Well, except for one klitch.  Cruising along through the 87th minute, I was feeling quite triumphant.  Then, all of sudden, I got an error message that the stream could not continue.  I was kicked out and had to find the replay to see the final minutes, at which point, I saw the final score.  F**k me twice.  See details below.

Skip the Ending

Ay Carranza; A second yellow leaves the U down a man

At the time I lost the stream, the Union were up 2-1.  They had fallen behind early on a handling call by Glesnes but had rallied on two fine goals from Mikael Uhre.  You can see the second one here.  Actually, the first one wasn't all that different.  Things were proceeding reasonably well until Carranza picked up a second yellow for a bad foul.  I know there were some complaints about the first one he got but if I read the report correctly, it was for persistent infringement, which means the referee doesn't have to judge it as reckless.  The second one looked reckless to me, the kind of challenge you simply shouldn't be making if you're carrying a yellow card. 

From then on it was mostly frantic defending by the Union.  Through 87 minutes they had been successful.  Then I lost the stream.  When I find the replay I see that the final was 3-2 Montreal.  Excuse me but WTF?  The equalizer came in the 90th minute in the play with the double VAR described above.  The game winner came in the 98th minute on a header in which Mbaizo was either muscled or shoved off the ball; the goal stood so it must have been the former.

This was a tricky fixture but being in position to come home with all three points so ending up with nothing was frustrating.  Lost points like this are why we didn't win the Supporters Shield last year.

International Break

You'll have to get by with MLS scraps and Euro Championship Qualifiers.  Actually, the latter offers some pretty good matches and they count.  Check out FS1 and FS2 for your choices.

We'll be back at Subaru Park Saturday night for the 7:30 match with Orlando City.  For BFS readers this likely means a week off from me complaining about Apple's MLS Season Pass.  Normally, we would be relatively confident of a result here but the squad will be missing many players due to international duty, suspension or injury.  Gazdag, Martinez, Lowe, McGlynn and Sullivan are playing for their respective countries. Carranza has a one-game suspension for that red card and Blake is still recovering from his groin injury.

MLS not exactly helping their brand by playing during the international break.  At least they're raking in the dough from MLS Season Pass.  I'm not bitter or anything.

Reliably Wrong?

 A few weeks ago we were ready to concede the EPL title to Man City.  That hasn't panned out yet.  Last week we told you Liverpool were ready to challenge for a Champions League spot and they promptly lost to Bournemouth.  There were three goals in the Newcastle-Wolves match and the Magpies won what we thought would likely be a scoreless draw.  As much as the fan in me likes these results, I would like to have bit better track record on this kind of stuff.

Goals and Three Points

Alexander Isak (pronounced E-sock) starts and scores
for Newcastle against Wolves (photo: Getty Images)

Two things that have been missing from recent Newcastle matches.  Many positives to take away from 2-1 win over Wolves, the Magpies' first league win since mid-January.  They did look much more dangerous with E-sock and Murphy up top; E-sock's header off a Trippier cross was nice.  Newcastle probably should have had more than a 1-0 lead at halftime.  Also good news that Almiron entered the match late and ended his drought with the game winner in the 80th minute (this week's YouTubeableMoment).  On balance, they looked the better side and the xG seems to back that up.

Except we can't gloss over the poor refereeing decision related to Pope's challenge in the box. You can see the play here (should open at 1:23 of the clip)   Sure looks like a foul, a PK and probably DOGSO, right?  Madley did not call it on the field and did not even make a trip to the monitor.  We believe in a high threshold for overturning a call on the field but that one was one of the more clear and obvious errors we can remember.  Also, there was pretty sloppy defending on the Wolves' equalizer.  We don't want to go all "dark cloud behind the silver lining" here, just don't think we should go overboard.  A good result that maybe they can build on.

Adam Smith and the Invisible Hand[ball] (apologies to, well,  Adam Smith)

Turns out the non-call on Pope wasn't the worst refereeing decision of the weekend.  With Bournemouth working on a 1-0 upset of heavily favored Liverpool there was a Liverpool cross into the box went off defender Adam Smith.  Referee John Brooks signaled for a corner.  You can see the play here (should open at 6:37 of the clip).  VAR told Brooks to go to the monitor and after reviewing the play, he changed his call to handling.  Two problems here.  First, Brooks' initial decision looks correct.  Yes the ball did hit Smith's arm.  Yes his arm was extended from his body.  But here's the rule again in case you forgot.  It is an offense (sorry, offence) if a player:

touches the ball with their hand/arm when it has made their body unnaturally bigger. A player is considered to have made their body unnaturally bigger when the position of their hand/arm is not a consequence of, or justifiable by, the player’s body movement for that specific situation. By having their hand/arm in such a position, the player takes a risk of their hand/arm being hit by the ball and being penalised

Somewhere, Rasheed Wallace is smiling (photo BT Sports

Smith's arm is not in an unnatural position for a player who has made a big leap and is using his arms for balance as he comes down.  Not handling for me.  However, I wouldn't be as bothered if Brooks had signaled for a PK as his original call.  No, what really stinks here is that he went to VAR and overturned what was not a clear and obvious error.  Fortunately, all's well that ends well.  Mo Salah stepped up and send the shot well left.  Ball don't lie indeed.  Bournemouth hung on for the slim victory and a precious three points in their fight against relegation.  Liverpool, on the other hand, looked to have used up all the mojo they had gathered up in the last few weeks.

Relegation Becoming A Black Hole

After the weekend's results, nine sides - nearly half the league - are fully engaged in the relegation struggle.  After losses to Man City and Brighton, Crystal Palace are (somewhat remarkably still) 12th in the table but are just three points out of 18th.  A mere five points separate 12th from 20th place.  Bournemouth based on the upset mentioned above and Everton with a 1-0 win over Brentford  markedly improved their survival odds, though both remain among the top four contenders to go down.  Southampton managed a 0-0 draw against Man United - no doubt aided by MUN playing much of the match down a man - but then lost 0-2 to Brentford mid-week; they are back in the cellar.  Nottingham Forest continue to fall faster than a tech bank's stock; though they still sit outside the bottom three even after the 1-3 loss to Tottenham, they have the second worst odds for going down.

West Ham got a 1-1 draw with Aston Villa, which was just enough to keep them out of the relegation zone, at least for this week.  That match featured what we rank as the third worst call of the week.  With Villa up 1-0, Paqueta cleverly drew a foul on Bailey in the box and Benrahma converted the PK.  Dennis and I, both entirely unbiased here, thought there was reason to overturn the call.  However, unlike the Smith handling call, they did adhere to a higher standard in deciding whether or not to change the call and let the original call stand.  

For those keeping score at home, here are the percentage chances of relegation calculated at 538 for the last two weeks:

In other news, Arsenal and Man City won.

Europe Stuff

Man City made hash of Red Bull Leipzig 7-0 to advance 8-1 on aggregate.  Liverpool could make no headway on Real Madrid, falling 1-0 for an aggregate final loss of 6-2.  So Chelsea and Man City are the only EPL sides remaining.  Quarterfinal draw is Friday.

Take it for Granit - Xhaka has no class (Getty Images)

In Europa League, Man United mostly coasted on their 4-1 cushion over Real Betis from the first leg; they took a 1-0 win in the second leg for a 5-1 win on aggregate.  Arsenal did not fare so well.  First, they came into the second leg level with Sporting 2-2.  After scoring early - a goal from Xhaka after which he showed his class by thumbing his nose (presumably at Sporting fans), Sporting leveled with this incredible score from just under 50 yards out.  The Gunners had some good chances but ended up losing on PKs.

Another Bite at the Apple

More fun watching the Union on MLS Season Pass.  I was streaming on my phone (Android, not Apple, but you knew that) and wanted to cast to the TV.  No can do because it wouldn't cast from my phone to the Chromecast on my TV.  I need to get another phone app, AirDroid Cast Web.  So I ended up watching on my computer.  BFS Music Director Chris Z suggests that there may be a Roku device that could solve the problem plus make my dumb TV smart.  We'll see.

Playing to the Opposition?

Pretty much everything about the Union - Chicago match suggests that a draw would have been a fair result so in some ways the 1-0 win, snatched with a 90th minute goal from Torres was maybe more than we deserved.  Union did have more possession but shots were 14/12, shots on goal were 3/2 and xG was 1.20/1.25.  The Union possession advantage probably has more to do with the fact that Chicago played a man down from 50 minutes on.  This was frustrating to watch.  We have no reason to think Chicago are much improved over last year so this should have been a much easier match, especially at 11 v 10.  Oh, and Andre Blake got hurt and had to leave the game.  Even the late game winner from Torres looks weird; seen here, I think the shot was deflected and the keeper also misplayed it.  Really, the only thing good here is that despite how awful it looked, the win was still worth three points.

Tuesday's second leg of the Concacaf Champions League tie with Alianza went much better.  Didn't get to see it but was following on Gamecast.  Looked like the Union were the better side for the first half but had nothing to show for it until a Damian Lowe header in stoppage time.  Things went better in the second half and they coasted to a 4-0 win.  They move on to the quarterfinals where they will take on Liga MX's Atlas.

Abbreviated Schedule

We still get 10 games this weekend but six are EPL and four are FA Cup quarterfinal matches.  The FA Cup schedule is here.

With nearly half the league facing the threat of relegation, it becomes redundant to point out the relegation relevant contests this weekend.  It's all of them. 

The weekend gets a start with our favorite - Friday afternoon football. Newcastle travel to face Nottingham Forest (4 pm on USA).  This really should be three points for the Magpies, especially given Forest's recent form.  Of course, it doesn't mean it will be.  I would like to see Esock start again.

There are four matches Saturday at 11.  Our recommendation is Wolves - Leeds.  These are two sides in the thick of the relegation battle and 538 has it at 38/35/28, or slightly favoring Wolves but suggesting a tight contest.  Other choices are Southampton - Spurs (that's the one picked for USA), Brentford - Leicester and Aston Villa - Bournemouth.   Despite the FA Cup match, there is still a 1:30 Saturday feature match between Chelsea - Everton.  There's only one match on Sunday - a London derby between Arsenal and Crystal Palace.  Everything there says blow out (Palace awful recent form, Gunners may be loaded for bear after Europa League loss, etc) so it will probably be a close match.

The Union have a tricky match against Montreal Saturday at 7:30 (on you-know-what TV).  I would be very happy if they came home from a draw on this one.

Monday is the beginning of an international break so we won't have any mid-week league or cup matches in England.  Looks like the MLS will still have a full slate of matches next weekend though.

Believe or not, I think I could use the break.  I say that now but by Wednesday I'll be wondering where all the football went.

Cero A Dos Again

A third straight 0-2 defeat for Newcastle. Not a great effort from the Union and they fell to Miami by the same score. Lots of fun watching the relegation race, especially now that Newcastle and Aston Villa aren't involved.

Narrowing the Gulf?

Wilson missed a big chance - Getty Images

Maybe but there is still a significant gap between Newcastle and the elite sides of the EPL.  The Magpies were creditable in their 0-2 loss to Man City.  They did come to play and did not fade meekly into the background.  There were long stretches when they actually had the run of play.  Still, it was another goalless outing.  Wilson had a big whiff on a volley; Almiron couldn't produce a cross or a shot.  Put money that E-sock will replace one of those two in the starting XI against Wolves this weekend.  At least we weren't expecting any points from this one.

Liverpool Learned How to Play - Uh Oh (apologies to Happy Gilmore)

In what is decidedly bad news for Man United, Tottenham, Newcastle and maybe Brighton, Fulham and Brentford, Liverpool looked to have found their mojo in a 7-0 trouncing of Man United.  This was a lively but scoreless match until Robertson and Gakpo hooked up for a goal just before halftime.  The tally, seen here, is a textbook pass into space for a diagonal run that included the finish it deserved.  From there, Liverpool were relentless.  Klopp took off two players on hat tricks (Gakpo and Nunez).  Everything they tried worked.  This was Man United's worse Premier League defeat.  

Don't Listen To Me

Hopefully you made your own viewing choices this weekend, as last week's post would have steered you in the wrong direction.  I believe we said something about all the other 10 am choices being more appealing than Arsenal - Bournemouth.  Of course, that one turned out to be the best of the weekend.  The Gunners were trailing 0-2 though 60+ minutes before they started a comeback.   One by Partey at 62 minutes and a second from White at 70 minutes put them back in the match but a game winner would not come.  Well, not until the last play of game, when Reiss Nelson fired in a rocket from just inside the box.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment, in part for the timing and the quality of the goal but also for how the stadium erupted.  Gave me goose bumps and I don't even like Arsenal.  Might need to remember that goal when May comes around.

And Wolves - Spurs was probably a better choice than either Aston Villa - Crystal Palace or Chelsea - Leeds.  We did note that Spurs are consistently inconsistent and they were again in a 0-1 loss to Wolves.  Chelsea's 1-0 win over Leeds, which I sped through on DVR, looked awfully boring; also, I wouldn't think a narrow win like that did much for Graham Potter's security.  Aston Villa's 1-0 win was the quintessential example of "fugly."  The only scoring was an own goal.  There were 31 fouls and seven yellow cards, including two for Doucoure'.  Villa couldn't score with the man advantage, though neither were they particularly pressed; Palace's xG was .25.  Three more points for the Villans and at 34 points, the rest of the season is about how far up the table they can go.

Heavily, Narrowly, Dramatically

During the Southampton - Leicester match, Peter Drury efficiently updated us on the earlier fates of Southampton's relegation rivals.  The "heavily" was West Ham's 0-4 defeat to Brighton, the "narrowly" was the aforementioned loss by Leeds to Chelsea and the "dramatically" was the previously discussed Bournemouth comeback loss at Arsenal.

Southampton ended up getting a narrow 1-0 win that at least took them out of the basement.  But an indication of how the Saints season has been going is that 1) the incredibly talented free kick specialist James Ward-Prowse somehow failed to convert a PK and 2) the goal scorer Carlos Alcarez  hurt himself on the celebratory slide after the goal.

When the weekend was done, there are nine sides with a measurable percentage chance of relegation.  Bournemouth are the new leader at 64, with Southampton (63) and Everton (58) in hot pursuit.  Nottingham Forest are uncomfortably close at 40.  The five "longshots" at this point are Leeds(28), West Ham (14), Wolves (14), Leicester (11) and Crystal Palace (8).  Palace are a late entry but they have not won a match in 2023 and  have five points and just four goals in those nine matches.  Yeah, that'll put you in the relegation race. 

New Old Issue for Newcastle Ownership

You may recall that during all the gnashing of teeth about the purchase of Newcastle United by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), the issue seemed to come down to one key point - that the EPL received "legally binding assurances that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will not control Newcastle United Football Club." Though many expressed skepticism that PIF and the Saudi government were actually separate, that argument carried the day.

Now comes a court dispute between LIV, which is financed by the PIF, and the PGA regarding professional golf.  In court documents related to the case, the PIF has said that it is part of a foreign government and that PIF is "sovereign instrumentality of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia" and its governor (Yasir Al-Rumayyan) is a "sitting minister of the Saudi government."  Details can be had here.  Dennis is not a lawyer but his take was "seems kinda like an obvious problem."

If You Can't Say Anything Nice...

Get a British football commentator to find a diplomatic way to say it.  They were in good form this weekend, as evidenced by these examples:

"They will have wished the ball had fallen to someone else" rather than "His finishing skills are s**t."

" I think he said keep your thoughts to yourself" rather than "Shut the f**k up."

"He had a fair bit of net to aim at" rather than "He missed a wide open goal."

 "That shot was a bit speculative on his part" rather than "WTF was he thinking?"

If At First You Don't Succeed...

A slew of Dortmund's defenders are closer than 10 yards
before the kick was taken and one got to the rebound first

Hope that a defender encroached on the PK so you get a second try.  Chelsea, coming off the unimpressive win over Leeds on the weekend, had to face Borussia Dortmund in the second leg of their Champions League Round of 16 tie, down 0-1.  Rahim Sterling had a awful miss in the box but somehow recovered the ball and leveled the match late in the first half.  Early in the second half, Chelsea were awarded a PK.   Kai Havertz hit the post and the ball was then cleared by a Dortmund defender.  The good news for Chelsea was that the defender who cleared the ball had entered the penalty area before the kick was taken, which meant a second chance.  Not sure if there was a debate but Havertz took the second try and did not miss.  The Blues held on for a 2-1 win on aggregate and advance to the quarterfinals.

Tottenham were not so lucky.  Lifeless is probably too strong a word but they didn't impress in a 0-0 draw in London.  Romero's second yellow at 77 minutes didn't help either.  With the 0-1 loss on aggregate, they are out.  Notably, so too are PSG, who lost 0-3 to Bayern.

A Rotten Apple

I will admit I went into the Union telecast on Apple's MLS Season Pass with a negative attitude towards this subscription service.  Even so, I think it's earned an F.  And to be clear, it's not about the money.  For one thing, as a Union season ticket holder, we get a free subscription.  But more than that, this is not unlike many other soccer leagues.  And, maybe the new revenue will improve the quality of the league. 

No, my objections are based on other issues.  For one, we no longer have a "home team" broadcasting crew.  This is particularly annoying since, in JP Dellacamera and Danny Higginbotham, I thought we had a superb combination.  But even if the Apple team is decent (Saturday's team were mediocre at best), we still lose out on both the team knowledge and the comforting familiarity of having "our guys" covering the match.

Second, BFS Artistic Director Laura O, who watched the match with me, commented that the Apple graphics were s**t.  She noted how the fonts were weak and thin, color backgrounds didn't make sense and basically everything was hard to read.  BTW, she was also unimpressed with the announcers and asked "where are our guys?"

Um, big spoiler alert

But the most unforgiveable sin, the one which ensures a failing grade, is that if you want to watch a replay as opposed to live, the final score is posted right there on the thumbnail picture that you click on to get to the match.  WTF?  Wait, it gets better.  This is only a problem if you're not using an Apple device.  Confirmation once again that they are indeed evil.  If you ever see me with an Apple phone, call the police because it means I have been kidnapped.  

It Was Apple's Fault

Not really but the Union's performance Saturday night against Miami in the 0-2 loss was as frustrating as the Apple broadcast.  The stats say the U were the better side but the Herons had two great finishes, including this volley from Robert Taylor shortly after he entered the match; sometimes all you can do is tip your cap.  Note that there were 31 fouls (17 by the Union) and four yellows (three for the Union) that undoubtedly accounted for the frustrating viewing.  

Is That on the Bingo Card?

Final stats: three touches and a sending off

Not to take anything away from how the Union played Alianza to a 0-0 draw in El Salvador on Tuesday night in the first leg of their CONCACAF Champions League tie, but my two takeaways were the quality of the pitch (almost as bad as Chestnut Hill's Water Tower Rec Center field) and the dog coming on to said pitch.  Video can be had here.  Stu Holden's commentary is almost as good as the video - was a dog running on the field on your Concacaf Champions League bingo card?

Seriously, this was a decent effort from an almost fully rotated squad.  They were clearly the better side for the first 20 minutes; Donovan missed a great header opportunity, possibly because of the mask he was wearing to protect his broken nose.  The rest of the match felt more 50/50 so the 0-0 result seems about right. They are well-positioned for the return leg back at Subaru Park on Tuesday night.

Empathy for the Devil (apologies to the Rolling Stones)

There's always something unintentionally humorous in the referee recertification materials.  This year's entry:

Showing empathy, and a red card, to Romero

Ironically, we saw this exact situation late in the Tottenham - Milan Champions League match when Romero injured himself committing a reckless challenge.  Referee Clement Turpin waited to make sure that Romero was okay - though not on his feet yet - to show the second yellow and the requisite red card; he looks like he's trying to be empathetic.

BTW, I got 97 out of 100 on the recertification test and my 2023 badge is on its way.

Spring Forward

This match week's fixtures are on the underwhelming side.  Per 538, the most competitive match is - wait, this can't be right - Leicester vs Chelsea.  The Blues are only slight favorites here, which I guess makes sense given their season to date.

You can get an early start Saturday with Bournemouth - Liverpool at 7:30 (USA); no reason to get excited about that one given Liverpool's recent form but I said the same thing last week about Arsenal -Bournemouth so take it with a grain of salt.  For the 10 am choices, I was initially thinking Leicester - Chelsea for the reason noted above.  Except Everton - Brentford could be a close one too and watching Everton's fight against relegation has been interesting to follow.  Leeds - Brighton and Spurs - Nottingham Forest are the other options.  Tottenham are favored but have they fallen into a funk?  Leeds - Brighton could be some good up and down action.  The 12:30 feature match (on USA, not NBC who are covering the Players Championship Golf Tournament) is Crystal Palace - Man City.  Hmm, golf might be the choice there.

Sunday is crowded with three matches at 10 am (we move to DST while Britain holds on for another two weeks).  The most interesting of the lot is West Ham - Aston Villa, which is fortunate because that's the one we'd be watching anyway.  Schedule makers agree as well given that's the one USA will broadcast.  After last week's drubbing by Brighton, Moyes' position quite tenuous.  Your back-up choices are Fulham - Arsenal or Man United - Southampton.  Saving the "best" for last, at 12:30 Newcastle will host Wolves.  Given the Magpies have the fewest goals allowed (17) while Wolves have the fewest scored (19) and that Newcastle can't seem to find the net right now, one might expect a low-scoring affair.  An elite side would be thinking this is three points; somehow a draw feels in the offing due to the lack of goals.

Two mid-week matches on Wednesday with Brighton hosting Crystal Palace and Brentford traveling to Southampton.

The Chicago Fire come to Subaru Park to face the Union on Saturday night at 7:30 pm.  The good news is the rain is supposed to have stopped and the temperature won't have fallen below 40 degrees yet.  Philly haven't lost at home in a long time.

Europe action continues mid-week.  Man City have the home leg of their tie with RB Leipzig on Tuesday; that one is level at 1-1.  On Wednesday Liverpool travel to face Real Madrid, down 2-5 after the first leg; wouldn't have given that one much thought except for the seven goals they got against Man United.  Nah, still probably not going to happen.  On Thursday, both Man United (up 4-1 on Real Betis) and Arsenal (2-2 with Sporting) have the second legs of their Round of 16 ties in Europa League.

And don't forget the second leg of the Union match up with Alianza.  They're at Subaru Park Tuesday at 8 pm.  Probably will see 1) a better pitch and 2) no dogs on the field.  

Geez, there's a lot going on. 

 

No Cup for U

Come back, one year.  Newcastle went quietly in the Carabao Cup final loss.  The Union got a good result in their season opener.

"Did You Guys Forget There Was A Game Today?"

Can't blame Karius for the loss

That was Dennis's question as he watched the replay of Newcastle's uninspiring 0-2 loss to Man United in the Carabao Cup Final.  The answer was apparently no.  The Magpies weren't awful but they weren't good either.  Poor outings from Botman, Wilson and Almiron.  ASM had a few ideas but they never panned out.  Guimaraes looked rusty returning from a three-game suspension.  Ironically, one player who wasn't bad was replacement keeper Loris Karius. Yes, there were two goals but on one he had no chance and the second was a deflection off Botman.  Just a totally forgettable day.

That's two 0-2 losses in a row.  They haven't won since January 15th.  Five draws have kept it from being worse.  Fact is, this team is struggling right now.  Six goals in nine matches.  Yes, we are a long way from the team that spent all their time trying to avoid relegation.  But we are also a team that looks a long way from being top four material. 

Sometime You Just Gotta Have A Feel For This Game

Long-term Phillies announcer Richie Ashburn used to say that after he made a bold prediction that came true.  Dennis was clearly channeling Ashburn as he watched Aston Villa take on Everton.  As the two sides were playing an energetic, up-and-down the field 0-0 first half, he was initially skeptical of Villa's prospects.  Then he observed, "I do think our bench is better if this pace keeps up."  Midway through the second half he said that Bailey needed to come out for Buendia, who could be a better link through the midfield.  Apparently, Emery heard him and did just that.  And voila', Aston Villa scored two minutes later.  Buendia himself later made it 2-0 on a great shot to the lower left hand corner.  That was a good win on the road and really removes the relegation threat for this team.  Dennis's conclusion: I could run this team.  Probably could.

#DIV/0!

Potter: Pining for Brighton?

Excel users will recognize that expression.  It's what is displayed in a cell in which you've tried to divide something by zero.  It could apply to Chelsea's £300 million January transfer spend divided by many things.  Wins in last five matches.  Victories over teams above them in the table.  Wins over Southampton (yes, they lost to last place Southampton home and away).  Percent chance of making Champions League as calculated at 538.  

Tottenham just added to the misery with a 2-0 win on Sunday.  Spurs weren't exactly awesome but they did manage two moments of quality between an Oliver Skipp blast from just outside the box and a Harry Kane shot from close in off an Eric Dier corner.  With the defeat, Chelsea are closer to the relegation zone (10 points) than to the 4th in the table (14 points).  

Arsenal Not Conceding Anything Yet

The Gunners got two more wins this week - a 1-0 result on Saturday over Leicester and a 4-0 hammering of Everton on Wednesday.  That's three wins in a row since the loss to Man City, who took care of Bournemouth 4-1.  The Arsenal lead is five points and the two sides have played the same number of matches.  At 538, Arsenal are favored 57% to 40%. 

Thanks Guys But Did You Have to Wait So Long

David Moyes was likely about 20 minutes from getting his walking papers as his West Ham side were still 0-0 with Nottingham Forest heading into the 70th minute.  Then Danny Ings got two in three minutes and Rice and Antonio each added another and the Hammers were home free with a 4-0 win.  They are by no means out of danger but the two extra points will make a big difference.

Our New Manager Is Newer Than Your New Manager

The Leeds - Southampton contest featured 1) the 19th and 20th place sides in the table and 2) two brand new managers.  Ruben Selles was appointed caretaker manager of Southampton on 2/12; the position was made permanent through the end of season on 2/24.  For their part, Leeds named Javi Gracia as their new manager on 2/21.  That makes it hard to determine which team would benefit more from the new manager bounce.  Our view was advantage Leeds.

That is how it played out on the pitch too.  This was a typical, close relegation scrap but we thought Leeds were the slightly better side and the 1-0 final looked about right.  The three points were enough to get Leeds out of the bottom three - for the moment.

Will the Wolves Survive? (apologies to Los Lobos)

The gravity of the relegation zone can keep pulling you down if you're not careful.  The slightest slump puts you in danger again.  Wolves looked to be breaking free but after the 0-2 loss to Liverpool on Wednesday, they are 15th in the table, a mere three points clear of 18th.  They have 14 points from the last ten, which just shows how awful they were before the World Cup break.  At 538 they're listed at 25% chance of going down, which puts them ahead of Southampton(71), Bournemouth(63), Everton(57) and Nottingham Forest(37).  

Leicester and Nottingham Forest are experiencing the same issue.  Leicester have two losses in a row and suddenly they are only three points above 18th place, albeit with a much better goal differential. Forest have a draw and two losses in their last three and now they are just four points out of 18th; to make matters worse, their goal differential is horrendous.

Some FA Cup Dreams Are Still Alive

Sorry that we did not alert you to the mid-week 5th Round FA Cup matches.  Not everything went according to plan and the quarterfinals will feature a host of non-EPL sides.  Leicester and Spurs fell to Championship Division sides - Blackburn and Sheffield United respectively.  League Two Grimsby downed Southampton.   Burnley (Championship Division) beat League One Fleetwood.  So those four non-EPL sides are onto the quarterfinals along with Man City, Man United, Fulham and Brighton.  Matches are March 18th; match ups are here.  Note that the Sheffield United - Blackburn fixture means there will be at least one non-EPL side in the semi-finals.

Good But Not 4-1 Good

The Union had a successful home opener against the Columbus Crew at a frigid Subaru Park.  However, the 4-1 final is very flattering to the Union.  The first half was mostly Columbus possession as the Crew moved the ball with relative ease.  Their goal at 28 minutes wasn't a total surprise but note that it was an own goal.  The U got one back before halftime on the first of two sketchy handling calls.  Referee Lukasz Szpala called this one nearly immediately but I thought proximity and the defender's arm being relatively close to his side should have been taken into account; probably correct though that VAR did not overrule as it wasn't an obvious error.  Whatever, 1-1 at a halftime was a bit lucky.

Carranza had a brace with some excellent assists
Photo: Elizabeth Robertson, Philadelphia Inquirer

Julian Carranza put Philadelphia up early in the second half with a nifty (lucky?) flick that found its way into the goal.  Kudos to Jose Martinez for excellent tackle at midfield to get the play started.  The lead went to 3-1 with a second handling call.  This one was not called on the field and everybody proceeded to set up for a corner.  Then Szpala is getting info from the VAR and eventually heads to the monitor.  The defender's arm looked barely extended and he was turning away from the ball; VAR should have left this one alone, especially since the review took several minutes, clear evidence that there was not an obvious error.  At least there was nothing cheap about the fourth goal.  Recall last week we mentioned newcomer Joaquin Torres and his 1 v 1 skills as an attacker.  He was on the pitch for mere seconds before he demonstrated those talents.  Watch how he spins away from several would-be tacklers to send  a perfect pass to Carranza who slotted it past the keeper for the 4-1 final.  This is an easy choice for the week's YouTubeableMoment.  Aside from the moves to get free, note that the pass is so perfect that Carranza does not need a touch to get it under control; his only touch is the shot.

Was it 4-1 good?  Probably not.  At least one of the PKs shouldn't have been given.  Columbus was able to move the ball into dangerous positions too easily.  But their goal was deflection off of Glesnes.  The Union had two well-worked goals of their own besides the PKs.  So we're not saying the W wasn't deserved, just that we shouldn't overvalue it.

Another Busy Week

And we get to start it bright and early with Saturday at 7:30 with Newcastle facing Man City.  Yeah, we got a draw with them last time but not holding out hope for anything from this one.

Five choices at 10 am.  The schedulers chose Chelsea - Leeds for the USA game.  I suppose that could be fun as we watch to see whether Graham Potter continues to be the Chelsea manager.  We'll probably go with Aston Villa - Crystal Palace as the most competitive of the choices.  Certainly more appealing than Arsenal hosting Bournemouth.  Wolves - Tottenham really shouldn't be all that close but Spurs can sometimes make things closer than they should be.  Brighton - West Ham is your final choice.

The 12:30 Saturday feature on NBC is all about relegation with Southampton hosting Leicester.  I would have had the Foxes as the clear favorite but 538 has this 37/37/26, or about as clear a potential draw as you can find.  

Sunday's early match is more relegation material, with Nottingham Forest hosting Everton at 9 on USA; 538 says this one should be very close as well at 38/34/28.  That's mostly a sign I think that 538 doesn't think much of Nottingham Forest.  

The other Sunday match should good as Liverpool play Man United at Anfield (11:30 on USA); Liverpool have the advantage of playing at home but Man United are in excellent form.

Add in a Monday match up of the interlopers; Brentford will take on Fulham at 3 pm on USA.  Fulham are ahead in the table but I see Brentford as the more likely underdog challenger for a spot in Champions or Europa League.

Speaking of Champion and Europa Leagues, there are games Tuesday - Thursday.  On Tuesday Chelsea are home against Dortmund, trailing 1-0 after their first leg.  Tottenham face the same situation on Wednesday against Milan.  Down one goal is not insurmountable but it does leave little room for error.  On Thursday Arsenal will face Sporting  and Man United take on Real Betis in Round of 16 action for Europa League.

Wait, not done yet.  Don't forget Union at Miami 7:30 Saturday.  Stay tuned for a possible big rant next week about Apple's MLS Season Pass.  Especially if they continue to show the scores on the links for replays.