Stanger Things

Apologies to, well, Stranger Things

Even the scorelines that look normal have a weird story behind them.

The More Things Change...

Really hard to argue that wasn't deliberate

It wasn't supposed to be like this.  Sure Newcastle hadn't beaten Liverpool since December of 2015.  But, Newcastle were the in-form side, actually ahead of Liverpool in the table.   And, in fact, Newcastle had the run of play early.  To no avail though, as they conceded at 10 and again at 17 minutes.  [Editor's note:  You realize how ridiculous it is say they had the run of play while falling behind 0-2.]  Things couldn't get much worse, except they did.  Nick Pope came out to handle a long forward pass before Salah could get to it.  When I say "handle," I mean in the Law 12 sense.  This was a clear DOGSO and Pope was sent off.  Perfect.  The sending off has implications beyond just this contest and we'll discuss that later in the post.

Newcastle had arguably been the better side to this point and what's weird is that after the sending off, they were clearly the better side.  Final stats include 14/13 for shots, 4/7 for shots on target and 1.7/1.8 for xG.  Some excellent opportunities were not converted.  Certainly, Liverpool were on cruise control after the red card.  Still, it has to mean something that they didn't melt away.  Not for the standings but maybe for the rest of the season.

Not So Fast

After we essentially handed the title to Man City in last week's post, of course they stumbled big time with a 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest.  Meanwhile, Arsenal posted what looks like a routine 4-2 win at Aston Villa.  Except there was nothing routine about it.  Aston Villa had 1-0 and 2-1 leads.  The match went deep into stoppage time still 2-2 until a freakish Emiliano Martinez own goal at 93 minutes broke the tie.  When I say "freakish, well, see for yourself.  Arsenal added an "empty net" goal in the closing seconds after Villa had sent Martinez up for a set piece opportunity.  Neither Dennis nor I were buying  the announcers' spin that Arsenal "wanted it more" and all that "character and quality" nonsense.  The ball hit the post, ricocheted back, hit Martinez in the back of the head and went into the goal.  The Gunners were effing lucky.  

Tottenham (2-0 over West Ham) and Man United (3-0 against Leicester) were among the few score lines that a) look right and b) don't require much explanation.  The bad news is Spurs move ahead of Newcastle into the 4th spot in the table.  Fulham just don't seem to realize they are playing way above their heads and beat Brighton on the road 1-0.  I didn't see the match but everything points to a blow-out in favor of the Seagulls; possession was 65/35, shots 21/5, shots on target 7/2 and xG 2.35/.25.  But it was Fulham that got the late goal to take all three points and move into sixth.  Brentford were solid favorites home to Crystal Palace but needed a late stoppage time goal to grab a 1-1 draw; that's not exactly according to form either.  

Reshuffling

More goofy stuff at the other end of the table too.  All three sides in the relegation zone posted wins.  Southampton stunned Chelsea 1-0 at Stamford Bridge; lemme guess, a James Ward Prowse free kick.  Potter is almost level now with David Moyes in the sack race.  Bournemouth upset Wolves 1-0 also on the road; on paper it looks like Wolves dominated but the Cherries scored with their only shot on target.  I guess Everton's 1-0 win over Leeds at Goodison Park really can't be considered an upset. 

Perhaps highlighting the precariousness of their situation, even with the surprise win, Southampton are still bottom of the table.  Bournemouth and Everton do escape for the moment, replaced by West Ham and Leeds.

You'll Never F$&k Up Alone

In Tuesday's CL match an Anfield, Thibaut Courtois had an awesome mess-up that led to Liverpool's second goal.  Not to worry, Alisson Becker, probably not wanting his keeper colleague to feel bad, responded not long after with a howler of his own.  Details and video can be had here.  That's some crazy sh...stuff.  Liverpool had a bad day overall as they failed to hold a 2-0 lead, losing the home leg of this tie 2-5.  

All four EPL sides find themselves in varying degrees of jeopardy after the first legs of the Round of 16 ties.  Liverpool are clearly in trouble.  Tottenham (vs Milan) and Chelsea (vs Dortmund) are similarly situated in that they both lost the away leg 1-0.  Not insurmountable but definitely have work to do.  Man City probably not in real trouble but they only managed a 1-1 draw against RB Leipzig in their away leg and will have to do better back at home.

There's No Crying In Soccer

When you discover your side is not in a league of their own

Even if your side blows two leads and eventually loses 2-4.  Long-time Aston Villa fan Tom Hanks made his first visit to Villa Park on Saturday.  A fan since at least 2008, he's no stranger to the ups and downs of being a Villa supporter.  He was warmly welcomed and did see a great match.  Hanks' interest in Aston Villa is discussed in more detail here.

She's Still Right

Remember a few years ago when Karen Carney suggested that Leeds benefited from the Covid break in 2020 because Marcelo Biesla's tactics and training tend to wear players out.  Also recall the shitstorm that ensued.  As I pointed out in this BFS post (scroll down to She Was Right), the data completely supported her position.  

I bring this up again because I finally worked my way through Inverting the Pyramid, Jonathan Wilson's meticulous historical treatise on soccer tactics.  [Side note: I found the Audible version easier than trying to read the print version.]  Biesla gets about eight pages in Chapter 18.  After pointing out what the innovations he brought to the table, Wilson then gets to the downside.  Notable passages from page 332 include:

- Fatigue has always been the curse of the Bielsa side.  The intensity he demands seems unsustainable over any protracted period...

- By May, though, weariness had set in...

- When the center-forward Fernando Llorente arrived to train with Spain before the European Championship, he was so exhausted that the national coach, Vicente Del Bosque, said he knew immediately would play no part in the tournament .

 In other words, Carney wasn't the first to point out this trend.  Probably just the first woman to do so.

Playing for Hardware

The keeper who will Carry Us to the Carabao Cup title

For us, the big game this weekend is the Carabao Cup Final between Newcastle and Man United, Sunday at 11:30.  As we mentioned earlier, Magpie keeper Nick Pope picked up a red card and a three-game suspension for his DOGSO against Liverpool.  Since the Carabao Cup is an EFL competition, the suspension applies to the final.  No worries, Dubravka is an excellent replacement.  Except his is cup-tied, having already appeared in the competition - for Man United no less. Okay, we'll go with Karl Darlow.  Sorry he's on loan at Hull City and cannot be recalled.  So we turn to Loris Karius.  He does come with some baggage; he made two mistakes in Liverpool's 1-3 Champions League Final loss to Real Madrid in 2018, seen here.  Note that he likely suffered a concussion prior to the mistakes and probably wouldn't have even been on the pitch under today's protocols.  And further, this is frankly not a disaster.  Part of the reason Newcastle have allowed the fewest goals this season is a back line that has allowed the 5th fewest shots/90 minutes and the 5th fewest shots on target per 90 as well.  My argument is slightly damaged by the fact that they have the lowest goals per shots on target in the league, suggesting Pope is a also a key factor in the low goals against number.  

Still, we really shouldn't be making excuses before the match begins.  They are looking reasonably healthy going in.  Bruno is back from suspension.  Sure, Man United is the favorite favourite, but at 4/6 vs 11/10, the spread is not huge.  We're hopeful of an interesting match.

The Cup final shortens the EPL schedule by a couple of matches.  Three things to note.  First, no early Saturday match - sweet. Second, there's a decent Friday match between Fulham and Wolves at 3 pm on USA.  And third, there's an extra Saturday match at 2:45 between Crystal Palace and Liverpool.  There are four Saturday 10 am matches.  We are torn between Everton - Aston Villa and Leeds -  Southampton.  The latter is a key relegation matchup between 19th and 20th; Leeds however are serious favorites.  As to the former, besides our loyalty to Aston Villa, this could be just plain competitive football, though Dennis would argue (hope?) that Villa are actually the much better side.  USA thinks the relegation angle trumps other factors and that's the game they chose.  You could also go with Leicester - Arsenal or West Ham - Nottingham Forest; I'm getting a whiff of relegation flop sweat in that latter fixture.  

The Saturday feature 12:30 match is on USA, not NBC, and doesn't look all that appetizing with Bournemouth hosting Man City.  We do like the prospect of warming up the for Cup final with Tottenham - Chelsea at 8:30 Sunday on USA.  With the Blues 10th in the table, already 10 points behind Spurs, hard to think that's not a must-win for Chelsea.  

Two mid-week EPL contests on Wednesday: Arsenal - Everton at 2:45 on USA and Wolves - Liverpool at 3 on Peacock.  No Champions League or Europa League so that will have to be your midweek serving.

MLS Sneaks Up On Us

It's the end of February, a time in the US when pretty much no one is thinking about domestic soccer.  So of course, we look up to find that Saturday is Opening Day.  BFS Ultra-marathoner Jeff H and I will be at Subaru Park, freezing our butts off as the Union take on Columbus Saturday night at 7:30.  Those who want to watch from the comfort of their warm houses, well, that'll cost you because you'll need a subscription to Apple TV to do so.  A couple of reads into articles about how people with Android phones can access this service, I'm pretty much ready to tell MLS what they can do with this.  Harder to work with and costs more money but trust us, it's better. Maybe save that rant for another week after we see how it really works, or doesn't work.

Moving on to more pleasant things, the predictions for the Union are looking pretty good.  We did lose Cory Burke (to the Red Bulls, ouch), Paxten Aaronson to the Bundesliga and Matt Freese (to NYCFC, ouch again).  The good news is we didn't lose Wagner or Mbaizo so our back four is unchanged.  Actually, the starting XI is basically unchanged.  Joaquin Torres could add some attacking depth and maybe some of the 1 v 1 dribbling skills missing since Ilsinho departed.  

Early signs suggest this is a possibility again

As far as predictions go, you check out 538's opening forecast here; second ranked, 15% to win
Supporters' Shield and 13% to win MLS Cup.  The team preview at mls.com, available here, reads pretty well too.  Note at the end all the writers pick the U for first or second in the conference.  That's encouraging.

Best early sign is that, as far as I know, no Union players are dealing with visa problems.  This is progress.  

The Goals Not Scored

Newcastle get another draw against a side they should be beating.  Looking at other results though and thinking maybe that's not too bad.

Missing the Engine?

Miggie ended his drought

Newcastle continued to have trouble putting the ball into the goal, limping to a 1-1 against 19th place Bournemouth.  This was a draw on merit, no mistake here.  At least Almiron found his scoring touch.  Another tough day for ASM.  I know this team is not an offensive dynamo even with Bruno in the line up but they look lost without him right now.  The goals not scored and the points not collected are starting to add up.  The good news is that a draw like this used to mean that we were guaranteed to be stuck in the relegation battle.  Now it means that maybe Champions League isn't in the cards.  

And It's Pronounced E-sock

Alexander Isak got the start against Bournemouth as Callum Wilson had a - all together now - tight hamstring.  And the announcers spend the afternoon mispronouncing his name.  It's E-sock, not E-sack.  Don't believe me? Listen to this.

Gunners Lose To Higher Caliber Team

Guess where this is going to end up

The showdown between Arsenal and Man City actually panned out as good entertainment.  A cheeky chip by De Bruyne off an ill-advised Tomiyasu back pass was matched with a Saka PK for 1-1 halftime score.  Arsenal were definitely keeping up.  Man City was more dangerous in the second half and took the lead with a well-placed deflected shot by Jack Grealish.  Dennis and I were both annoyed at how effusive the praise was for WonderCalves; if the shot doesn't nick off the Arsenal defender it goes right into the waiting arms of the keeper.  There was nothing cheap about the third goal - a fine finish by Haaland from a great pass by De Bruyne.  An easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment.

While it felt like Arsenal played well, the final also seems right.  City were (and probably are) just a better team.  Hate to be conceding the title on February 15th but...before the match 538 had it 58%-39%  Arsenal.  Now it's 62-34 favor of City.  On the heels of a 1-1 draw with Brentford (more on that below), not a good week for the Gunners.

 

What Is He Thinking?

Aaron Ramsdale is 1) a goal keeper and 2) English.  Same for Nick Pope.  How in the world is Jordan Pickford England's No. 1 keeper?

EPL Has Eight Sacks This Year

Southampton's Nathan Jones became the 8th victim this year following a 1-2 loss to Wolves.  It wasn't a a run-of-the-mill loss.  The Saints were up 1-0 when Wolves Lemina got a second yellow in the 27th minute (for dissent no less - wait, he got a yellow in the 9th minute for a bad foul, and followed it up 18 minutes later with a second for dissent!).  So you're up 1-0 at home, also up a man.  For Southampton this year, that simply isn't enough.  Bednarek surrendered an own goal in the 72nd minute and Gomes got the game winner at 87 minutes.  Already on the hot seat, that was the nail in the coffin.  Jesse Marsch has been mentioned as a possible replacement but not clear if that will actually happen and Ruben Selles will be the caretaker manager for this weekend.

£300 Million per Goal

Okay, that's not really fair but since the massive January spend, Chelsea have a 0-0 draw with Fulham, a 1-1 draw with West Ham and an 1-0 loss in the Champions League at Dortmund.  And yet somehow, Spurs had a worse week.  They were pasted 4-2 by a revived Leicester squad, then lost 1-0 at Milan in the Champions League.   

If You Can't Say Anything Nice...

I suppose we should say something about Aston Villa.  They "won" the second half 1-0 against Man City.  So they lost 3-1 on aggregate.

So Much For New Manager Bounce

Sean Dyche and Everton fell 0-2 to Liverpool; not a terrible performance but the Reds were clearly the better side.   Leeds, under caretaker manager Michael Skubala, could not beat Man United twice in four days.  The 0-2 final looks really harsh though, with both goals coming after 80 minutes and Leeds matching up well on most of the statistics.

Heading into the weekend, the bottom three are Everton, Bournemouth and Southampton.  West Ham and Leeds remain one bad weekend out of the relegation zone.  Wolves and Leicester have made noticeable moves away from the bottom but are by no means safe.  And for all their recent good form, Nottingham Forest are still uncomfortably close to relegation.  

Bad Weekend for VAR?

Three incidents are making the rounds on the internet.  One I saw live, the other two only on replays.  ESPN covers all three, plus some other interesting calls here.  Starting with the one I saw, my initial thought was that West Ham's Soucek had not handled the ball in the box.  Though less sure after looking at replays, I'm not too bothered by Craig Pawson not calling it live and John Brooks not recommending he go to the monitor.  I am in the distinct minority on that. Chelsea obviously feel they were robbed as the match ended 1-1.  For the offside that chalked off what should have been a legitimate goal for Brighton against Crystal Palace, feeling less sympathetic.  Neil Swarbrick and the VAR crew flat out drew the line on the wrong defender.  That one ended 1-1 as well.  Lee Mason probably made the biggest error, allowing Brentford's equalizer against Arsenal, spending several minutes concluding that one player was not offside but failing to follow the rest of the play to notice that there was another offside later in the sequence.  Reconstructing after the fact, it sure seems that Mason spent far too much time (over three minutes) to conclude that one player was not offside and then felt pressure to end the review.  If he had followed the BFS VAR rule (if it takes more than 30 seconds to decide, there is no way it is a clear and obvious error), Mason might have had time to review the rest of the play.  Completing a trifecta, the final there was also 1-1. Brooks, Swarbrick and Mason all got pulled from subsequent VAR assignments. 

On the Road Again?

Trip to New Hampshire could put a severe crimp in this week's viewing.  Not an overwhelmingly impressive list of  fixtures but enough there to keep it interesting.

This is taking some getting used to but it appears that Newcastle are again part of the marquee match up of the weekend, this time hosting Liverpool.  NBC thinks so as for the fourth straight week, the Magpies are in the featured Saturday 12:30 fixture.  The last three ended in minimally satisfying draws with Bournemouth, West Ham and Crystal Palace.  A draw here would be just fine.  Wow, 538 has Newcastle as slight favorites (41/35/24).  Liverpool are the only team to defeat Newcastle in league play this year and they did that with a stoppage time goal at Anfield.  This sets up as a great test of how good Newcastle are.

The other fixture of high interest is Everton - Leeds, a contest featuring new managers and two sides squarely entrenched in a relegation fight.  Looks like a close one with 538 showing 36/38/26; a little surprised Everton under Dyche isn't a favorite.  While that one is our pick (and USA's) for the best of the six Saturday 10 am contests, there are a couple of other decent choices if you're not into the relegation thing.  Brighton - Fulham features two of the long-shot contenders for a Champions League spot. Brentford - Crystal Palace could be interesting too.  Wolves have a chance to put the relegation fears farther back in the rearview mirror when they host 19th place Bournemouth. Thinking that Chelsea might make hash of Southampton, even under a new manager.  Same for Man City at Nottingham Forest.  

Aston Villa get another tough assignment facing Arsenal at 7:30 Saturday morning; actually that would tough regardless of the start time.  Two Sunday matches as well with Man United hosting Leicester at 9 and a London derby featuring Spurs and West Ham at 11:30.

Don't forget more midweek Champions League action.  EPL teams in action include Liverpool (vs Real Madrid at Anfield on Tuesday) and Man City (at RB Leipzig on Wednesday).

Also, this doesn't seem possible but the Union kick of the 2023 season next Saturday.  Long-term forecast says cloudy and 41 degrees.  Could be worse I guess.

Not Exactly According to Form

 Sean Dyche doesn't use a 4-4-2 but wins anyway.  Yeah, kind of a strange weekend overall.

Scored Too Soon?

Gordon did liven up the moribund Newcastle
offense in his debut (Getty Images)

Both Newcastle and Aston Villa had 1-0 leads before the 10 minute mark but neither came away with the desired result.  Newcastle never found the net again and was stuck with a disappointing 1-1 home draw with West Ham.  Hard to say it was an unfair result.  West Ham had only one shot on goal but Newcastle only managed two.  Not good games for Saint-Maximim or Almiron.  They clearly missed Bruno and Isak too.  This was another match where it seemed Newcastle were doing an excellent job getting the ball into dangerous positions but not generating shots and goals.  We have a way of checking on that.  At 538 they track non-shot expected goals defined as:

an estimate of how many goals a team “should” have scored based on non-shooting actions they took around the opposing team’s goal: passes, interceptions, take-ons and tackles.

I expected Newcastle to be near the top in this category and indeed they are.  With 36.32, they are fourth highest, behind Man City (45.1), Liverpool(40.2) and Arsenal (38); the league average is 27.55.    

Of course, the good news is that it wasn't a loss.  Also, striving to prove me wrong, Anthony Gordon came on in the 69th minute and brought life to the attack; they were so much better with him on the pitch, one wonders if he had come on earlier whether the Magpies could have grabbed all three points.  

As for Aston Villa, the good news was that, as predicted this was exciting match - for the neutrals.  The bad news is that it was a 2-4 loss to Leicester.  We think three of Leicester's goals resulted from charitable acts by the Aston Villa defense and the final score looks a bit harsh.  This was one of the few black marks against Emery so far.  At least it's clear where he needs to focus his attentions.

Meet the New Odds - Same as the Old Odds (apologies to The Who)

Two weeks we might have gotten ahead of ourselves, suggesting that EPL title chase was now a two-horse race between Arsenal and Man City.  Of course, both lost this weekend.  Except, it really didn't change things much.  Before the weekend, 538 had Arsenal with a 63% chance and City with a 34% chance to win the title.  After their losses, Arsenal's number dropped to 58% but City's actually went up to 38%.  Man United's draw on Wednesday added another point to City's chances.  In other words, on January 23, the chance that the winner would be Arsenal or Man City was 97%.  Going into this weekend, it's still 97%.

Choking Hazard

Casemiro: It's a misunderstanding. I said eff me not eff Mee

In the second half of the Man United - Crystal Palace match, there was a bit of dust up after Palace's Jeff Schlupp fouled Antony.  In the melee, United's Casemiro was seen with his hands around Ben Mee's neck.  After Andre Marriner went to the video, he showed Casemiro the red card.  You can see the incident here.  While appearing to choke another player is never a good look, this may have been more in the professional wrestling category of theatrics than violent conduct.  In some angles it's hard to be sure there's really any force or attempt to choke.  Also, the two hugged as the larger scuffle broke up.  Still, United decided against appealing the decision and Casemiro will serve a three-match ban.  Oh, the final was 2-1 Man United, which was good for them with Arsenal and Man City dropping points.

Nice of You to Show Up on Time

Tottenham have been plagued all year with poor first half performances.  Not so against Man City.  This 1-0 win might have been their best of the year, limiting City to just five shots on target.  Harry Kane had the game's only goal in the 15th minute.  We'll make it this week's YouTubeableMoment, in part because it was the game winner but also recognizing that it made Kane Tottenham's all-time leading scorer.  BFS Construction Manager Charlie O noted that while it feels like they've struggled all year, Spurs sit in 5th place, one point out of 4th.  After the win over City, Spurs' chances of making Champions League shot up from 22% to 39%.

New Manager Bounce

Arsenal and Man United found themselves on the wrong side of the New Manager Bounce this weekend.  At Goodison Park, Sean Dyche made his Everton debut with a big 1-0 win over the Gunners.  Not a fluke, the Toffees earned all three points.  Wait, they played a 4-5-1?  Sean, I don't even know who you are anymore.  Meanwhile, at Old Trafford, caretaker manager Michael Skubala led Leeds into action against Man United in the wake of the sacking of Jesse Marsch.  Man United had to work their butts off to come back from an 0-2 deficit against Leeds just to grab a draw.  

Turns Out He Wasn't Wrong

Jesse Marsch had recently been quoted as basically saying he wasn't particularly worried about relegation.  We were somewhat incredulous as Leeds had been stuck in the lower part of the table, never more than a few points away from the bottom three.  But when he got sacked on Monday, maybe he had the last laugh.  As Dennis noted, "he was next levelling all of us."

  

£100 Million Per Shot

The weekend brought no change in Chelsea's or Liverpool's situation.  Fresh off a huge January transfer spend, Chelsea had to settle for a 0-0 draw with Fulham.  The Blues managed just three shots on target.  They remain two points behind Fulham in the table.  The good news is that with the point, they did slide ahead of Liverpool, who were awful against Wolves, falling 0-3.  The stats suggest the final score might have been a little harsh.  It did include an own goal from Matip.  Hard to rule either out from making the Champions League, especially given revelations of Man City misdeeds (see below) but neither look particularly dangerous right now.

Recidivism Or Double Indemnity?

re·cid·i·vism

/rəˈsidəˌviz(ə)m/

Learn to pronounce

noun

1. the tendency of a convicted criminal to reoffend.

   "the prison has succeeded in reducing recidivism"

The EPL announced a list of over 100 violations by Man City of the league's Financial Fair Play rules.  The basic story is here.  As noted in the article, not that long ago, UEFA had imposed a two-year ban on Man City participation in the Champions League that was overturned.  I'm not totally clear on whether these are new violations (recividism) or a different body pursing the same violations (double indemnity).  Actually, it looks like it could be both.  And the thing that saved City last time - essentially statute of limitations - doesn't apply to the EPL charges.  Sanctions range from fines to point deductions to relegation.  Stay tuned, though it's unlikely things will play out quickly.

Sheffield United Wrecks 'Em

Mullin lies prone on the turf after being held in the box: the question
isn't whether it was a foul but what is he wearing under his shorts

Wrexham United kept up the FA Cup magic for just a little while longer before eventually falling 3-1 to Sheffield United.  There were exciting moments though.  After a scoreless first half in which they were thoroughly outplayed, Wrexham fell behind early in the second half.  Sheffield United offered a lifeline when a defender grabbed Paul Mullin's shirt in the box and the Wrexham striker was more than happy to convert the PK.  All square with 30 minutes to go.  Amazingly, Sheffield United committed another foul in the box at 71 minutes.  Mullin was the taker again but this time he was denied.  Even after missing that opportunity, Wrexham kept the score level into stoppage time, with the prospect of an extra 30 minutes or PKs looming.  Sheffield had other ideas and poured in two goals after 90 minutes.  They were clearly the better side and deserved the win but one can't help wonder what happens if Mullin buries the second PK.  Good on Wrexham for such a great example of why the we still like the FA Cup.

We head to Round 5, with most of the dreamers gone now.  Fourth tier Grimsby Town is still there and so is third tier Fleetwood.   The rest of the field is nine EPL sides and five from the Championship Division.  Matches are 2/28 and 3/1.  The full field is here.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did you say you got a lot of laundry done this weekend?

Steve: No, I said there were a lot of clean sheets this weekend.

Eight to be exact.  It seemed like a lot but I checked just to make sure.  It was but not by as much expected.  Looking at all games through 2/8/23, there were 124 clean sheets in 217 matches, which means it happens 28.57% of the time.  So we'd expect to see about 5.7 clean sheets in any given weekend.  

Champions League Is Back

The EPL offers a mixed bag this weekend.  There are three derbies, a non-derby derby, a good relegation-relevant contest and a homecoming for Eddie Howe.  Really though, the key match this week is Wednesday's 1-2 match-up between Arsenal and Man City.

Derbies?  The weekend kicks off at 7:30 Saturday with West Ham hosting Chelsea.  Surprisingly, this is forecast as a tight match despite the big difference in the table.  There's also Arsenal - Brentford at 10 am Saturday and a Merseyside Derby Monday at 2:30.  That last one doesn't have quite the same cachet as it used to, with Liverpool sitting 10th and Everton 18th.  We hear that fans do not consider Crystal Palace - Brighton a derby but the two sides have a longstanding feud, explained here; they play Saturday at 10 am..

Besides the two already mentioned, other choices for 10 am Saturday are Fulham - Nottingham Forest, Leicester - Tottenham and Southampton - Wolves.  We'll probably go with that last one as both teams are fighting relegation.  

Eddie Howe returns to Vitality Stadium as Newcastle travel to take on Bournemouth.  For the third week running, the Magpies have been given the feature 12:30 Saturday slot.  We really should be taking all three points here; though Bruno will still be missing, we read that Isak trained this week and will be available.

Two Sunday matches include quick rematch of Leeds - Man United at 9 am (the EPL version of home and home series) and Man City hosting Aston Villa at 11:30.  Can't say we're counting on any points for Villa in that one.

Both Champions League and Europa League return for their Rounds of 16, which means football Tuesday-Thursday the next two weeks.  EPL contestants this week include Tottenham at Milan and Chelsea at Dortmund.  Europa League action includes the rare sight of Barcelona playing Man United and it's not a Champions League contest.  Schedules for both competitions are here and here. 

Also, there's some big NFL contest on Sunday.  Check your local listings for details.

Going to Wembley!

Despite a sloppy second half, Newcastle beat Southampton 3-1 on aggregate and are headed to the Carabao Cup final at Wembley.  An interesting weekend of FA Cup action as well.  We do make fun of both competitions but they can entertain at times.

Taking Care of Business Early

Longstaff: I don't often score goals
but when I do, they get us to a cup final

Carrying a 1-0 lead from the first leg and playing at Saint James' Park, the Carabao Cup semi with Southampton was Newcastle's to lose.  The good news was that the Magpies were very efficient in the first 30 minutes of the second leg of their Carabao Cup semi, scoring two early goals and in theory ending most of the drama.  The bad news was they spent the next 60+ minutes scaring us.  Recently we have been wondering why so many chances seem to be falling to Sean Longstaff and noting that he regularly failed to put them away.  On Tuesday, all of a sudden he became the epitome of clinical finishing.  He took much of the pressure off with a well-placed shot in the fifth minute.  His shot from just inside the 18 in the 21st minute was also solid.  At 3-0, this match was essentially over.  Except from there on out, the Magpies did just about everything they could to keep Southampton alive.  

A poor back pass from Willock gave Che Adams a chance to grab one for Southampton before the first half was over.  Newcastle came out for the second half playing like the match over, unable to generate much offense or even maintain possession.  Fortunately Southampton didn't take advantage.  Things got even hairier when Bruno G made an ill-advised challenge and got himself red carded at 82 minutes.  While the Saints did have a few chances, Newcastle did enough to finish out the 3-1 win on aggregate.  As Jon Champion put it, this was "not a glorious march to Wembley."  Collateral damage along the way includes a likely three match ban for Bruno and Isak may be out for a little while with a concussion.  Geez, even when really good stuff happens, there's always a catch where Newcastle is involved.  

The crummy feeling about the less-than-ideal final 60 minutes didn't last long as the reality that Newcastle were going to a cup final sunk in.  It's their first final since the 1999 FA Cup and a chance to win their first trophy since the 1955 FA Cup.  Bruno and Isak will likely be available for that final on February 26 at Wembley.  Their opponent will be Man United, who on Wednesday completed a 5-0 aggregate win over Nottingham Forest.  

The Peculiar Appeal of the FA Cup

We saw plenty this weekend of what Danny Higginbotham called  "the peculiar appeal of the FA Cup."  Despite its quirks and flaws, we can still have fun watching.

1. A Second Bite at the Cherry

Six of the 16 matches ended in a draw.  Those will go to replays this coming week; if the replay ends in a draw, then they do go extra time and PKs, if necessary.  This is really a no-win situation for just about everybody.   For the underdog who might have held the favorite to a draw at home, they get to go on the road for the replay.  Even for the favorites, the replay means an extra match crammed in mid-week between the regular league games.  Jon Champion characterized this replay process as "a second bite at the cherry."  He made it sound like a good thing.  My first thought was who doesn't eat a cherry in one bite?

2. Luck or Unluck of the Draw

Right now all of the 11 teams already into the next round are from the top two tiers.  We do know that at least one third tier side will make it as either Sheffield Wednesday or Fleetwood will win Tuesday's replay.  Fourth tier Grimsby Town have a replay against Luton Town and fifth tier Wrexham have a replay against Sheffield United (more on that below).  Two teams not advancing include Arsenal and Liverpool, as both were handed difficult opponents in this round.  Arsenal's 1-0 loss at the feet of Man City was disappointing - an uninspiring match in which the highlight appears to be that I got a decent nap in.  Liverpool's 1-2 loss at Brighton was much better, with the match decided on a stoppage time goal by Kaoru Mitoma.  We make Mitoma's play this week's YouTubeableMoment - a good cross, good first touch by Mitoma, then a truly inspired second touch and volley into the goal.  Mitoma's time with Brighton started out slowly but since he became regular in late October, he has six goals and two assists in 11 matches.  Also note that this was the second time in 15 days that Brighton beat Liverpool.  And we thought they'd miss Graham Potter. 

3.Hallowed and Hollowed Grounds

Wrexham's Racecourse Grounds: Bring a cushion

I got up in time to see the second half of fourth tier Walsall's match with Leicester.  At one point the
camera (or maybe it was a drone?) pulled way back and the scene was perfect, a small stadium with rowhouses and other neighborhood buildings close by and Midlands' hills in the distance.  I couldn't find a picture that did the full scene justice. The crowd was great and the Saddlers (!) gave the Foxes a good run but a 68th minute goal from Eatanacho was their undoing.

More of work in progress, we saw the ongoing renovation of the Kop Stand at Wrexham's Racecourse Grounds.  Condemned as unsafe a while ago, they got approval to demolish and rebuild the stand.  Rubble aside, the atmosphere was great.

4.Minnows Eating Sharks

Well, not quite.  However, the Wrexham - Sheffield United match was the most captivating of the weekend.  Recall that Wrexham are in the National League - the fifth tier of English football - while Sheffield United are in the Championship division so the two sides are three leagues apart.  Things started out poorly for the Red Dragons as they fell behind in the second minute.   The good news was that Wrexham - and the fans - did not seem rattled.  Their resolve paid off, first with the equalizer at 50 minutes and then a go-ahead goal in the 61st.  Unfortunately the lead was short-lived and within four minutes things were level again.  An incident off the ball that I never saw a clear view of resulted in Sheffield having a man sent off at 71 minutes.  Wrexham had some good chances with the man advantage and Paul Mullin eventually converted one to give them the lead at 86 minutes.  If this was Hollywood, that would be the end of the story.  But this is Wales and Sheffield, even a man down, managed to tie things up again in the 95th minute.  For all that work, Wrexham's reward is a match at Sheffield United's home field on Tuesday.  ESPN has great highlights reel here.  This was the FA Cup at its best.

The January Transfer Window

One of these is not like the others

So Newcastle splashed the cash to sign Everton's Anthony Gordon, a defensive midfielder who's reputation appears to outstrip his on-field accomplishments.   My impression before the signing was that 1) he wasn't all that good, certainly not £40 m good and 2) he is a bit of a jerk.  I'm already worried about this Newcastle team becoming overloaded with jerks.  More troubling is Gordon's player ratings over the last two years.  In 21 EPL appearances last year he averaged a 6.70 rating - not awful but not great either.  This year his number is down to 6.61 in 12 appearances.  Not an encouraging trend.

Chelsea were big spenders, plunking down £106.8m on Fernandez and another £88.5m on Mudryk.  On the one hand, they are certainly underachieving to this point and are looking to rally.  On the other, wasn't this the club that wasn't sure they could meet payroll last year?

4-4-2 in Everton's Future?

Sean Dyche has been hired as the new manager at Everton.  We always liked him and are happy to see him back in the EPL  We freely admit that part of that admiration stems from press conferences like this, but we also think he's a good manager.  He certainly has his work cut out for him, trying to rescue Everton from relegation.  We'd be tuning in anyway but we'll be interested to see their formation Saturday versus Arsenal.

 

 

Now That You Mention It, He Has Been Hitting the Bar A Lot Lately

I don't want to make too much light of this because it is a serious issue.  But, when I read that Joelinton pleaded guilty to DUI, that was the first second third line I thought of.

Back to League Play

Not a lot to get your blood racing.  We get an always appreciated Friday afternoon match when Chelsea host Fulham in a London Derby; it's February and the Blues need a win to pass Fulham in the table.  You read that right.  Most interesting is Tottenham hosting Man City Sunday at 11:30. Though this is 2nd vs 5th, City are solid favorites. We can hope that Spurs do not wait until the second half to start playing.

Leicester, Leeds, West Ham and Wolves all have matches to try to stay out of the bottom three.  Best of that lot is probably Nottingham Forest - Leeds at 9 am Sunday; that should be close and entertaining.  The others maybe not so much.  Dennis will be hoping that Aston Villa continue Leicester's poor run of form (Sat at 10), while I'll be looking for Newcastle to do the same for West Ham (NBC feature match 12:30 Saturday); wow, another NBC game for the Magpies.  And Liverpool probably won't help Wolves situation (10 am Saturday).

The bottom three don't have much to look forward to either.  Everton get Arsenal in the early Saturday match; at 538 they have that 69/12/19 so the Toffees' situation is not expected to improve.  Bournemouth have a tough away match at Brighton (Saturday at 10) that 538 has at 71//11/17, meaning the Cherries are less likely than Everton to get points.  Southampton have the best shot with a trip to Brentford (also Saturday at 10) but even that is 50/25/24; at least that one could be a point for the Saints.

Who am I missing?  Ah, Man United host Crystal Palace Saturday at 10.  Hmm, of the five Saturday 10 am matches, I'll be going with Aston Villa - Leicester and that might also be the best choice for the neutrals looking for a decent game.

A lighter midweek schedule but there is action on Tuesday and Wednesday in the form of FA Cup replays.  Also, somehow there's a random EPL match with Man United hosting Leeds.  Starting to see some mid week gaps here but I think Champions League will plug that soon enough.