The Grinch Stole Christmas (and Boxing Day)

Talk about coal in your Christmas stocking.  Newcastle got no points against two sides in the bottom four.  Aston Villa got one point in their two matches.  Ho ho ho my ass. 

You Can Go Home Again

Chris Wood comes "home" for Christmas
Photo: Lee Smith/Action Images/Reuters

Ex-Magpie Chris Wood returned to Saint James' Park and dropped a hat trick on Newcastle to complete the holiday wipeout.  On Saturday against 18th place Luton Town, Newcastle managed just two shots on goal in a 1-0 loss.  All I remember now is thinking can we just get out of here with a draw?  Boxing Day was even worse.  Newcastle did get an early lead thank's to a Guimaraes PK but they couldn't even take that into the halftime lockerroom because Chris Wood got a stoppage time tap in.  Two more early in the second half from Wood and you knew this match was out of reach.  

Surveying the damage, we see that Newcastle could not manage a goal from the run of play against the 17th and 18th place sides.  With players returning, injuries and fatigue are becoming less an explanation and more of an excuse.  Well, that's not completely fair, as this team defines the "whole is greater than the sum of the parts" concept so missing players like Jacob Murphy, Elliott Anderson, Harvey Barnes, and Matt Targett may be more damaging than we realize.  Also, fitness levels for returning players like Botman could be an issue too.  Whatever, they are not fun to watch right now.

Not Much Better For Villa

Things weren't all that great for Aston Villa either, as they eschewed the chance to go top of the table for Christmas.  On Friday they did look the better side at home versus Sheffield United, having more possession and more shots but it was still 0-0 late.  An 87th minute goal from Cameron Archer made it look like they wouldn't even get one point but Nicolo Zaniolo rescued the draw with a 97th minute equalizer.  Pretty thin gruel for the BFS sides this weekend so this ends up being the YouTubeableMoment.

Though the opponent was much tougher, the 3-2 loss at Old Trafford feels even worse.  Villa were up 2-0 at halftime and seemingly in control.  They even had a goal from Leander Dendoncker.  You know that here at BFS we don't buy that two goal lead is the toughest to defend nonsense.  However, Villa proceeded to prove the exception, ceding two to Garnacho and the game winner to Hojlund.  Villa probably deserved a draw here but the second half was very unVilla-like.  This was first time they dropped points from a winning position.  

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis:  Did you say Klopp substituted Tsimikas?

Steve: No I said he took him out

Tsimikas ended up with a broken collarbone from the incident, though I'm pretty sure it was the initial landing as opposed to the subsequent kollision with Klopp that caused the break.  He'll be out for several months, if not the rest of the season.  Recall that Tsimikas had been deputized to fill in for Andy Robertson, who dislocated his shoulder earlier this season.  He'll be returning shortly so Liverpool is not looking at a long term hole at this position.

The Real Coach "Beard"

The beard is back

Good to see Nuno Espirito Santo back in the EPL, even if his Nottingham Forest side took the measure of Newcastle on Tuesday.  Nuno's first game back wasn't so sweet as he saw Willy Boly get two yellows in the opening 23 minutes against Bournemouth.  Forest still made a match of it, taking a 1-0 lead and rallying from a 1-2 deficit.  Alas, Solanke completed his hat trick with a stoppage time goal to seal the win for the Cherries.  Taking three points from Newcastle probably took some of the sting of that defeat away.  Forest are currently two points clear of the bottom three but are probably in for a  relegation battle

Hard Times At the Top

Liverpool got four points from 1-1 draw with Arsenal and a 2-0 win over Burnley.  That was enough to put them top of the table.  Arsenal only got the one point from that draw, losing 0-2 to West Ham on Thursday; they sit second.  Villa also just got the one point and are third.  Actually, Man City did okay, winning the FIFA Club World Cup (4-0 over Fluminense) on Saturday, then taking the measure of Everton 3-1 to slide past Tottenham into fourth (with a game in hand no less). Spurs got three from 2-1 win over Everton but were fairly well beaten at Brighton and fell to fifth.    

Don't Look Now

Bournemouth have won four in row, haven't lost in seven and have taken 19 of the last 21 points on offer.  Their last defeat was 11/4 against Man City and they've beaten Man United and Newcastle (well maybe that's not a big a deal as we thought) in the streak.  

Will Still Have A Job 1/1/24

Post-Christmas wins for ten Hag and Pochettino mean they will probably be around for the new year.  After ugly pre-Christmas losses, that wasn't a sure thing.  Man United were awful in a 2-0 loss at West Ham and Chelsea no better in a 2-1 loss at Wolves.  The latter included six more yellows for Chelsea players.  United's comeback win over Villa should give ten Hag some breathing room.  Chelsea did not exactly dominate struggling Crystal Palace but late PK gave them a much needed 2-1 win.  

Given expectations, they will probably remain on the hot seat for the time being, joining Roy Hodgson and Eddie Howe.  We will argue that Howe certainly deserves more time to see how he fares with a full squad.  The next two league matches are Liverpool and Man City so that doesn't seem like a fair test either.  However, Newcastle do have Sunderland in the Third Round of the FA Cup sandwiched between those two fixtures;  a loss in that one could be more problemmatic.  Hodgson is in more peril.  Palace are just three points outside the relegation zone.  They haven't won since 11/4 and have taken just three of the last 24 points available.

The Last of the Holiday Fixtures

Everybody gets one more match before heading to the FA Cup weekend.  Another early start with Luton Town - Chelsea at 7:30 on Saturday on USA. Will the real Chelsea please stand up?  Four to choose from at 10 am.  We think the TV guys got it right with Wolves - Everton but loyalties may require us to take in Aston Villa - Burnley.  Your other choices Man City - Sheffield United (right, Opta has the Blades with a 3% chance of winning and 11% chance of getting a draw) or a London Derby between Crystal Palace and Brentford (actually that one will be competitive).  The NBC feature match is Nottingham Forest - Man United; on paper it doesn't sound great but we'll watch to see if either sides builds on their Boxing Day triumphs.

Two at 9 am on Sunday - a London Derby between Fulham and Arsenal (Peacock) or Spurs - Bournemouth on USA; as noted above, Bournemouth have been a tough draw lately but Tottenham will be looking to get back on track after the spanking by Brighton.

We can ring in the Newcastle Year with a very difficult contest - on the road at Liverpool (3pm USA).  The holiday schedule wraps up on Tuesday with West Ham  - Brighton (2:30 on USA), an interesting contest between two top half sides.  

If we have time next week, we'll try to identify the big winners and loser in the 12/2 - 1/2 holiday period, which saw most sides play seven matches.  Spoiler alert: unless they pull off an upset on New Year's Day, Newcastle will be one of the losers.  

Not That Kind of Boxing

Tuesday, Boxing Day, is one of my favorite days of the year, with many of the EPL teams in action.  I always thought it was called Boxing Day because, after 2-3 days together for the holiday, relatives would start to fight.  Turns out it was traditionally a day for giving gifts to the poor.

Despite going to a wedding out in Central PA, I did get to see more games than I expected thanks to fortuitous scheduling, Peacock replays and DVR so I do have some observations from the weekend.  

Life Is Easier A Man Up

Jimenez literally head butts Longstaff

Though it took long enough, Newcastle eventually capitalized on a silly (bizarre?) red card challenge by Raul Jimenez in the 22nd minute to come away with a 3-0 win over Fulham.  The Magpies were doing okay but not great before the sending off, then continued to do okay but not great for another 35 minutes.  Lewis Miley broke the spell with a good finish in the 57th minute, bagging his first career goal.  Given the context, we make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Almiron and Dan Burn added insurance goals and it was all relatively comfortable.  One wonders if it would have gone that well with both teams at full strength.  Oh yeah, and Newcastle saw two more players - Schar and Joelinton - leave with injuries.  Everything comes with a price these days.

Shouldn't That Be "I Got a Red Card?"

Frank incensed - another holiday traditon?

As they have done to other clubs, Brentford gave Aston Villa all they could handle, carrying a 1-0 lead late into the match.  Then Mee got a red card at 71 minutes.  Alex Moreno leveled things a few minutes later with a nifty header at the far post and Watkins supplied the game winner at 85 minutes. As with Newcastle, you wonder if Villa get all three points in an even strength match.

This one got ugly after the red card.  Thomas Frank was not pleased with the sending off decision, nor initially with Watkins' response after the game winner.  They did talk after the full time whistle and seemed okay.  Maupay and Martinez had their own little playground spat that ended up with Kamara getting a red card for hands to the throat of a Brentford player.  All most unsavory.

Meanwhile...

Man City continue to show cracks as they coughed up a 2-0 lead, at home no less, and could only manage a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace.  Liverpool basically ran roughshod over Man United but only managed a 0-0 draw for their efforts.  Arsenal were more clinical, dispatching Brighton 2-0 to move back to the top of the table.  Spurs survived the sending off of Yves Bissouma (who is now out for four matches) in a 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest.

Everton grabbed another three points with 2-0 win over Burnley and keep moving farther away from the relegation zone.  Chelsea were more than happy to add to Sheffield United's woes, beating the Blades 2-0 and finally making it to the top half of the table.  The biggest gap in the table is now the five points between 17th place Forest and the bottom three of Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United.

Christmas Cards

The weekend saw 39 yellow cards and five red cards.  Brentford - Aston Villa were responsible for 10 yellows and two reds as discipline was in short supply for that one.  Yellow cards are up from 3.62 last year to 4.53 this year so the weekend harvest is actually slightly below average.  But the five reds is way above the average of .2 per game.  Stats may be evening out a bit from earlier in the year, as we're seeing more matches where a red card means you lose; still the record so far is 12 wins, 7 draws and 16 losses.  

We're building a data base on this year's red card stats, partly in response to the idea being thrown about to move from red cards to a "sin bin" concept where the offending player is sent off for a period of time rather than whole game.  The concept is discussed in this article, (scroll down to This...Might Work), sent along by BFS Scandanavian Correspondent Jurgen B Sari (aka Philip S). Some random stats from the data so far include:

- 37 red cards have been shown

- 35 games have had at least one red card (we count Brentford - Aston Villa twice because     each team got one)

- 8 of 37 red cards were shown after 90 minutes

- 30 goals have been scored after red cards by the team with the advantage

- in 18 of the 35 games, the team with the advantage has scored at least one goal

- 11 of the 30 goals have been scored within 10 minutes of the sending off but that includes  4 where the red card resulted in a  PK so the sending off wasn't the real reason for the goal

- 10 goals have been scored by the team down a man

- in 9 of the games the shorthanded teams have scored; 

For the 35 games, 15 times the team with the advantage got more goals, 5 times it was the team down a man that got more goals and 15 times it was even.  If I have my math right, 51% (18/35) of the time, the sending off results in at least one goal for the team with the advantage.  If we limit the sending off to 10 minutes, that advantage drops to 31% (11/35); it falls to 20% (7/35) if we exclude the PK situations.  All kinds of trade-offs.  Will refs be more likely to signal for serious offenses?  Will players be more likely to commit them knowing the sending off is temporary?  My first thought is we leave well enough alone. 

Cooper "Beats" ten Hag

With Nottingham Forest winless in their last 13 matches, sitting in 17th place, Steve Cooper was sacked this week.  This is clearly another case of we appreciate your past service to the club but what have you done for us lately.  Cooper took over in September 2021 with Forest sitting dead last in the Championship Division.  He only took them to the promotion playoffs and with a win over Huddersfield got them into the Premier League.  They managed to avoid relegation last year but only by four points; this year certainly looked like it was going to be a struggle too.  Nuno Espirito Santo, late of Tottenham, will take over.

You Think You Had A Bad Month

Mudryk takes advantage of Trippier's misplay

Recall that the normally solid Kevin Trippier had a tough match a few weeks ago against Everton, as his mistakes led directly to two goals in the 3-0 loss to the Toffees.  He had another tough day in the Caraboa Cup quarterfinal vs Chelsea.  With the Magpies clinging desperately to a 1-0 lead in stoppage time, he misplayed a ball in the box that Mudryk was only too happy to bury for the equalizer.  Fast forward to the penalty kick phase (they don't play extra time at this point in the competition) and we see Trippier send his shot wide left.  Chelsea ended up advancing 4-2 on kicks.

To be fair, this was not a great effort from Newcastle anyway.  They were easily dispossessed many times, outphysicalled for most of the match and got their goal on a lucky break for Callum Wilson.  It only feels sucky because they were so close to coming away with the win anyway.  As with the exit from the Champions League, we are not particularly disappointed as this team doesn't need any extra games at this point.

The semis will feature Middlesborough vs Chelsea and Liverpool vs Fulham on Tuesday January 9th.  See what I mean - it would have been another mid-week match for the Magpies to manage.

MLS - One Step Up, Two Steps Back

On the positive side, the MLS just adopted some rule changes relating to substitutions and injuries.  Details can be had here.  My two favorite are the requirement that if you're being substituted you have to be off the field in 10 seconds or your replacement has to wait a minute before coming on.  The second is that if you required more than 15 seconds of treatment on the field for an injury, you have to wait two minutes before you can come back on.  If this works in convincing more players they don't need medical attention, I think we ought to explore how we could adapt the concept to the general population as way to reduce health care costs.

On the other hand, the arrogance of the MLS leadership continues to shock.  Last week, they announced that MLS would no longer participate in the US Open Cup but would instead send their development teams.  Details are here.  This is akin to the Premier League teams saying they would not participate in the FA Cup but would instead send their U-23 squads.  Before proceeding to completely trash the leadership, I will offer a few mitigating points.  In fact, many MLS teams do depend heavily on their reserves for early rounds of the Cup.  Second, it's not just management that isn't enamored of this competition.  In an interview last June, MLS Player Association Executive Director Bob Foose was quoted as saying "I can tell you that the US Open Cup is certainly not something our players look forward to."

One of the main issues cited was schedule congestion and how ditching the Cup competition opens up six match windows.  Well, it wouldn't be so crowded if you hadn't introduced the Leagues Cup that shuts down the regular season for six weeks.  Ah, but the difference is MLS has control over the media rights and money for that competition, unlike the US Open Cup.  This article by James Nalton in The Guardian gets to the heart of the matter.  Here's the money paragraph:

By removing itself from the Open Cup, MLS is attempting to control the story of Messi in US soccer by limiting Messi Mania to its own in-house marketing. In doing so, it denies those outside MLS – from broadcasters to lower league teams to fans – the chance to ride the Messi soccer wave. This is more evidence that the focus of MLS is now on growing itself rather than the sport in the country as a whole.

Reaction has been swift, similar to the outrage that immediately erupted at the announcement the Super League in Europe a few years ago.  USSF has told MLS that it cannot unilaterally withdraw from the competition.  So this may continue to play out over the next couple of months.

Super League Back From the Dead

Thanks to this ruling by the European Court of Justice, efforts to create a Super League are ramping up.  The new proposal talks about a 64-team competition that would replace the Champions League, with two 16-team higher tier leagues and a 32-team lower tier league.  There would be promotion/relegation between the leagues and access to the lower tier would be based on performance in domestic leagues.  I'm not opposed to a restructured European competition as long as participation isn't guaranteed by "birthright" (i.e. market power).  Hard to know yet if this new proposal is really a meritocracy.  It is notable that many of the clubs from the previous attempt are saying they aren't interested and will only go with UEFA sponsored competitions.

Let the Games Begin

So with 18 matches between Friday and next Thursday, there's gotta be some good stuff, right?  Well sort of.  The biggest contest of the period is Liverpool - Arsenal as Saturday's 12:30 NBC feature match; yeah, 1st vs 2nd qualifies as a feature fixture.  Opta has Liverpool as clear favorites at 47/27/26.  The other match we have our eyes on is Aston Villa hosting Man United at 3 pm on Boxing Day on USA.  Here's another test of Villa's bona fides as a title contender.  No data from Opta available for the mid week matches but we like Villa's chances here.

That's pretty much it on the top end.  There is a key relegation match up between Sheffield United and Luton Town on Boxing Day at 10 am on Peacock.  That might be more interesting than the alternative Bournemouth - Fulham on USA.  

We'll also recommend West Ham vs Man United, Saturday morning's 7:30 am match on USA.  This could be close, as both teams have been in the Dr. Jekyl - Mr. Hyde mode all season.

Newcastle have two matches which we might normally consider easy but with injuries and fatigue, might not be so inviting.  Saturday the Magpies take on Luton Town in one of the 10 am matches (the USA one actually - we would have put Spurs - Everton in that role) and Tuesday they open up the Boxing Day festivities at 7:30 hosting Nottingham Forest.  Should be six points but we'll see.

Besides the Man United match, Aston Villa start the holiday weekend off with a Friday 3 pm home match against Sheffield United.  Sounds like three points to me.

There are a couple of London Derbies that could be fun. Chelsea host Crystal Palace on Wednesday at 2:30 (Peacock) and Arsenal and West Ham square off on Thursday at 3 pm (Peacock).  

The full schedule is here if you want to customize your holiday viewing.

Will be interesting to see who sits atop the table this time next week.

Running On Empty

apologies to Jackson Browne

You can only put the same 11 players out there every match so many times before they end up "running on empty."  Newcastle found that out in the 4-1 loss away to Spurs.  The line-up wasn't bad, it was just gassed.  That's all we'll say about Saturday.  Well, except maybe that Spurs played pretty well so it wasn't just we were tired.  But did Richarlison have to get two?

All For the Best

Tired and dejected; I think this is at the end of the 
Milan match but they are starting to look the same

Newcastle's other match for the week was also a loss, 1-2 to AC Milan in the final Champions League group stage match.  This was all four seasons in one match, except there were only three seasons.  Up 1-0, the Magpies were second in the live table and looking at advancement to the knockout phase of Champions League.  At 1-1, they were third in the table and the "soft landing" to the knockout phase of Europa League would be their fate.  At 1-2, they finish bottom of the group and are done with Europe for the year. 

I believe this is for the best.  They were very competitive and arguably deserved a draw.  This was nothing like the moribund squad we saw in losses to Everton and Tottenham, even though there was only one change in the starting XI (Wilson for Isak).  But, even recognizing that the knockout phases of these competitions don't start until January when a few more of the injured players might return, I think we've seen enough to know that this team isn't quite good or deep enough to be able to compete in multple competitions that include mid-week contests.  I will be happy to see them with a few fewer fixtures and the energy to focus on the league.  Thus far the club has been mostly measured in building a better squad and additional pressure of Champions League or Europa League might have caused them to abandon that patience.  Yeah, I can rationalize anything.

Spin Doctor Please

What does it say about Aston Villa that they come up with less than their best effort against second place Arsenal yet still walked away with a 1-0 win? The xG (.67 - 1.47 favor the Gunners) suggests maybe some luck or maybe that Martinez is worth every penny in goal for Villa.  Or what if this team might just be good enough to contend?  As Dennis noted:

If Villa were City, the analysis would be that these are the tough wins you need to win a title

He might be right.

Double Jeopardy?

Dyche has Everton out of the relegation
zone for the moment; also maybe the shiniest
shoes of any manager in the league

Chelsea were the latest to find out how fierce Everton are right now.  They struggled mightily against the Toffees and eventually went down 2-0 at Goodison Park.  That's three straight wins for the Everton and three straight clean sheets.  So they've gotten back nine of the ten points deducted for FFP violations; even with the deduction they are now four points clear of the relegation zone.  They'd be 10th in the table without the penalty.  

That's the good news.  The bad news is that they could be headed for a second docking of nine points.  The problem is they have been depending on loans from a potential purchaser to keep going.  Absent those funds, the club would likely be at risk of administration (bankruptcy on this side of the pond) and would face another nine point deduction.  Delays in approving the sale are putting those funds in jeopardy, though based on this article, it sounds like maybe they'll be okay.

You Can't Play Chelsea Every Week

Erik ten Hag didn't have a good week.  Though the 3-0 final may be a bit misleading, Man United did not distinguish themselves at home against Bournemouth (another side I'd rather not play right now).  They did have much of the possession and got off 20 shots, but only three were on target; xG was 1.26 - 1.57.  Fast forward to Tuesday at home against Bayern for the Champions League group stage match they had to win to have a shot at making the knockout phase.  The Red Devils came up very flat.  Though the final was just 0-1 for Bayern, they were clearly outplayed.  Paraphrasing Paramount commentator Peter Schmeichel here "it looked they had no chance of scoring."  Well, they did manage one shot on target.  So ten Hag finds himself neck-and-neck with Nottingham Forest's Steve Cooper as the manager most likely to be sacked right now.

Better Late Than Never

Liverpool have six second half stoppage time goals in their 15 matches that have netted them an extra seven points.  If we extend it to the 80 minute mark, we add three more goals and another four points.  Looking at it from the other side, they've only dropped one point from the 80th minute on.

What She Said

Welch has done Championship and FA Cup matches
PA Wire/Adam Davy

The EPL will have its first woman in the center for the Burnley Fulham match on Saturday December 23.  Rebecca Welch has been a referee since 2010 and worked her way up the ladder.  Details are here.  Note also in the article that the EPL will have its first black referee since 2008.  Sam Allison will be just the second black to work the center in the EPLs history when he covers the Sheffield United - Luton Town match on Boxing Day.

MLS Cup (ertino)

The MLS season came to an end with an okay if not thrilling 2-1 win for Columbus over LAFC.  Certainly no LAFC - Union match like last year's final.  

This may go down as the year that Apple did massive damage to the MLS brand.  In the admittedly small sphere of fans here in Northwest Philly, that is the consensus.  I recognize that the Union's dropoff in performance from the last few years could be a factor in our assessment.  However, many of us went through the lean years with the Union without our overall interest in the league flagging this much.

Apple took away our excellent home team broadcasting crew, required us to pay extra to see our own team's matches on TV, was likely responsible for the six-week interruption in league play to have the Leagues Cup (more product for the Cupertino Broadcasting Company), and was also likely the reason for an interminable playoff period.  I'm sure I'm forgetting something in that list.  What do we think of a league that could only generate serious interest by importing Lionel Messi?  He had a great run in the Leagues Cup but then got injured and Miami never made it to the playoffs.  How his presence plays out next year remains to be seen.  The league currently has 29 teams, will be adding San Diego in 2025 and may be heading to 32 in the near future.  I don't see how that helps the situation.  I think it just makes the league even harder to follow.

This article in Forbes suggests maybe I am an outlier as the MLS is doing better as business.  Attendance is up, social media traffic is up, and merchandising is up.  Maybe I'm just the wrong demographic.  On the other hand, I haven't seen any data on viewership for MLS Season Pass.  So maybe we really don't know how things are going. Color me skeptical.

On the Road Again

Family trip this weekend means limited viewing.  I will not be the guy who yells "GOOOAAAAALLLL" in the middle of the wedding ceremony.  

The weekend gets an early start with Nottingham Forest hosting Spurs at 3 pm Friday on USA.  That does sound like a match for Spurs to build on their win over Newcastle.  No 7:30 fixtures Saturday morning but four to choose from at 10.  TV has Man City - Crystal Palace, which doesn't look all that competitive even given City's recent un-City form.  Newcastle have Fulham; we would normally be optimistic about this match but the Cottagers come to town off consecutive 5-0 wins over West Ham and Nottingham Forest.  Other choices are hot Bournemouth hosting Luton Town or Chelsea vs Sheffield United at Stamford Bridge.  The NBC "feature" match at 12:30 is Burnley - Everton; Dyche can't match Kompany's sartorial splendor (except for maybe the shoes) but you wonder if Eveton's recent form will be too much for Burnley.  Opta does have this as the closest match of the weekend at 35/30/35.

Four more games on Sunday.  We would go with Brentford - Aston Villa as the 9 am choice but others might be drawn to Arsenal - Brighton (the TV game) or West Ham - Wolves.  The 11:30 match - a good one between Liverpool and Man United - is on NBC for some reason.

The Carabao Cup quarters are this Tuesday and Wednesday.  Since Newcastle are still in it, we still care about it, a little anyway.  Tuesday is Everton - Fulham and Port Vale - Middlesborough.  Wednesday is Chelsea - Newcastle and Liverpool - West Ham.  Hmm, one of these is not like the others.  

Also, there's a random Thursday EPL match at 3 pm between Crystal Palace and Brighton.

Plenty to watch as you wrap presents.

Mans Down

Mostly overwhelmed by the volume of results, which means I resort to my trusty stand-by of random observations from the two matchweeks.

Manchester Parlay

Newcastle and Aston Villa had matching 1-0 wins over the Manchester franchises.  In both cases, the final scores flattered the losers.  In their win over Man United, Newcastle outshot them 22/8, shots on target were 4/1 and xG was 2.90/.42.  United really only threatened in the final 10 minutes.  The replacements - Livramento, Lascelles and Miley - continue to impress.  The downside was that Nick Pope separated his shoulder late in the match and will likely miss about four months after having surgery.

Aston Villa were possibly more dominating.  They outshot City 22/2, with shots on target 7/2 and expected goals 2.19/1.  I do remember a big save Martinez so City did threaten at least once but Villa hit the post once and had several other good chances as well.   They were simply the better side.

We'll gloss over that neither won their other match this week.  A clutch header from Ollie Watkins in the 90th minute allowed Villa to sneak out of Bournemouth with a 2-2 draw.  Newcastle were nowhere near that fortunate in a 3-0 loss to Everton at Goodison Park.  Neither side played very well but the Toffees displayed more passion in their play and the win was totally deserved.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve (after Nick Pope picks up separated shoulder like teammate Jacob Murphy): How many teams have two players out with separated shoulders?

Dennis: How many have one?

McNeil Leads Everton Out of the Drop Zone

Everton are not taking their point deduction lying down, on or off the field.  Their appeal has been filed and they've won two matches in a row.  Dwight McNeil was key in both.  Here is his laser from the left side of the box that was the difference in the 1-0 win over Nottingham Forest.  He followed it up with this rocket to put Everton up 1-0 late against Newcastle.  Yes, they added two more but his blast was the killer that sent them on their way.  

The only other sides to win both games this were were Arsenal and Liverpool, though perhaps not as easily as we predicted.  The Gunners underwhelmed in a 2-1 win over Wolves, then needed a 97th minute header from Declan Rice to snatch a 4-3 win against Luton Town.  Reluctantly, we make Rice's goal this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Similarly, Liverpool needed an 88th minute goal from Trent Alexander-Arnold to complete a last minute comeback against Fulham.  You can see the strike here.  They followed up with a workmanlike 2-0 win over relegation fodder Sheffield United.  As expected, Arsenal and Liverpool stay 1-2 in the table.

Heck of A Game Plan

I wish I could have been in the Burnley dressing room to hear Vincent Kompany lay out the strategy for their relegation contest with Sheffield United.  "Okay guys, here's what we do.  First, score in the opening 13 seconds.  Then get a second one quickly,  Then get one of the Sheffield United defenders sent off just before half time."

Though it ruined what we had expected to be a tight match, it certainly worked out okay for Burnley as they cruised to a 5-0 win and lifted themselves out of the basement.  I don't know if he tried the same speech on Wednesday but they went down 0-1 to Wolves.  

The game winner in that match came from Hwang Hee-chan.  Don't look now but he's tied for fourth on the scoring table: 

1. Erling Haaland, Manchester City — 14
2. Mohamed Salah, Liverpool — 10
3. Heung-min Son, Tottenham — 9
4. Jarrod Bowen, West Ham United — 9
5. Ollie Watkins, Aston Villa — 8
6. Hee-chan Hwang, Wolverhampton Wanderers — 8

Mr. Haaland's O-fer (apologies to Richard Dreyfus)

Haaland erupted but not with goals

After being held scoreless in consecutive matches, Erling Haaland saw his Premier League goals per game sink to 1.00.  He's now at 50 goals in 50 matches.  He did find time to lose his sh get excited near the end of the 3-3 draw with Spurs when Simon Hooper blew the whistle for a foul rather than playing advantage.  Though Grealish was surrounded by three Spurs defenders, it looked like he might have had a breakaway on goal for a potential last minute game winner (which would have been crushing for Spurs, who had just leveled the match with a Kulusevski header).  From Hooper's perspective, he might have thought the pass wasn't going to be anything special so he whistled the play dead to give City the free kick.  Possibly the best play would have been for Hooper to wait a few more seconds; however, if he did so and the pass was the bust, he would not have been able to bring the play back for a free kick.  He probably would have gotten crap if that had happened too.  Also, it's possible that Spurs held up when the whistle blew, making it look more like an advantage than it really was.  Hard to say.

What is not hard to say is that Haaland blew his top.  Aside from getting in Hooper's face on the pitch, he later posted a short and sweet "Wtf" on social media.  So far, it looks like he will not face any sanctions, though the club may for the collective actions of the players swarming Hooper.  Guardiola, while making it clear that he did not agree with the call, was more measured, delivering a new quotable quote we might use going forward:

When asked about the incident, he said: "Next question. I will not do a Mikel Arteta comment."

Did You Know?

A couple of refereeing points from the weekend.  First, the ball is dead not when the referee blows the whistle for a foul but when he makes the decision that it is a foul.  Late in the Chelsea - Brighton match, Anthony Taylor called handling against a Chelsea defender in the box; the ball bounced off the player and rolled over the goal line before Taylor blew his whistle.  The handling call was overturned after the VAR sent Taylor to the monitor.  The restart was a dropped ball for the Chelsea keeper, not a corner for Brighton.  The announcers (and ESPN referee review) mistakenly thought this was a mistake.  But, the ball is dead when Taylor decides it's a hand ball, not when he blows his whistle.  So the restart is a dropped ball.

Which leads to the second point.  When play is stopped with the ball in the penalty area, the restart is a dropped ball for the keeper, regardless of why play was stopped.  That leads to the crummy potential scenario in which the attacker takes a shot, it hits the referee inside the box and goes into the goal.  Not only is it not a goal, it's a dropped ball for the defense.  That would piss me off but it is the law.  Put together with the previous point and you have the reason it was a dropped ball for Chelsea's keeper.

Let My People Watch

By every account, the Cincinnati - Columbus Eastern Conference Final was one for the books.  Too bad it was behind a paywall so none of us saw it.  Cincy held a 2-0 lead through 75 minutes only to see Columbus grab two goals (the second at 86 minutes) to get the match to extra time.  Columbus got the game winner in the 115th minute so it didn't have to go to kicks from the spot.  The other conference final didn't sound quite as exciting though it was close most of the way, with LAFC grabbing a 2-0 over Houston.

The good news if you're interested is that you will be able to watch the Columbus - LAFC final at 4 on Saturday on Fox or "free" Apple.  

Note that once again, the club with the best regular season record will not win the MLS Cup.   It's only happened in 8 of the league's 23 seasons and only twice since 2011.  

Another Solid Week

BFS sides again offer the big matches for the weekend.  Aston Villa host Arsenal at 12:30 on Saturday in NBC's feature match of the week.  On Sunday at 11:30, Newcastle will take on Spurs at St. James' Park on USA.

Saturday early birds can go for Crystal Palace - Liverpool at 7:30 on USA.  Crowded again at 10 am with no obvious choice.  TV went with Brighton - Burnley.  Bournemouth have been pesky lately so we might check them out against Man United.  Or you could go with Wolves - Nottingham Forest or Sheffield United - Brentford.

You also have choices Sunday at 9 am.  Probably skip Luton Town - Man City in favor of a London Derby (Fulham vs West Ham) or Everton hosting Chelsea.  Actually, given how ferocious the Toffees have been lately, that match with struggling Chelsea could be interesting.

Last of the group stage matches in the three European competitions.  Newcastle must beat AC Milan and hope that PSG don't beat Dortmund.  The good news is that a Magpie win and PSG draw is enough to advance given that Newcastle was better head-to-head against the French side.  That match is 3 pm on Wednesday.  Man United's prospects are even more daunting.  They must beat Bayern on Tuesday (3 pm) and hope for a draw between Galatasaray and FC Copenhagen.  Man City and Arsenal have already clinched first in their groups.

In Europa Conference League action on Thursday, Aston Villa can clinch first with a win or draw over Zrinski.  They could also win the group with a loss provided Warsaw does erase the Villans' goal differential advantage.

In Europa League, all the EPL sides will move to the knockout rounds.  West Ham face SC Freiberg needing a win or draw to clinch first.  Brighton play Marseille and must beat them to get first in the group.  Liverpool have already clinched first.

Heads up.  You get Monday off then it's six straight days, another Monday off, then games every day until Christmas.  Almost as good as an Advent Calendar.

Getting A Handle On Handling

Some excellent viewing.  Some sketchy refereeing.  Expect some revised language on what constitutes handling.

Woke Up, It Was Not A Chelsea Morning (apologies to Joni Mitchell)

Lewis Miley is about to deliver a precise pass in the box to
Alexander Isak (yeah, the guy surrounded by 5 Chelsea defenders)

I was not looking forward to the Newcastle match with Chelsea given our depleted squad but Dennis counseled optimism - "they're not very good."  Sure enough, he was right.  An early goal from Isak on a pass by a different teenager named Lewis (17-year-old Miley as opposed to 19-year-old Hall) got things moving in the right direction.  Though Chelsea levelled fairly quickly, the Magpies looked solid through  a 1-1 first half.  Then it got better.  They were on the front foot from the second half whistle and got goals in quick succession from Lascelles and Joelinton.  A second yellow for Reece James at 73 minutes meant this one was over.  The stats say the 4-1 final overstates the margin but it sure looked like the right score watching.

Even with the injuries, Newcastle still put out a decent line up.  The replacements have come up big too.  Lascelles has been solid for Botman.  Hall and Livramento have contributed defensively and now Miley looks like he can help in the middle.  Still going to be short probably through January so we hope these guys keep it up.

It's Not A Bug, It's A Feature

The announcers for the Aston Villa - Tottenham match were seemingly shocked that several Spurs' goals were called back for offside, as if this was a random coincidence.  Uh, no.  Villa employ a well-executed offside trap. Next time you watch Villa, check out how well-drilled that back line is.  

I'm pleased to say this turned out to be an excellent contest and even more pleased for the confirmation that my suspicions that Villa were in no way overmatched, contrary to what Opta had us thinking.  Spurs did have a slight statistical edge and a draw probably would have been a fair result here.

Pantomime Villan: This challenge by Cash had Spurs
fans seeing red and booing him for the whole match

A talking point was the challenge Matty Cash made on Bentancur in the first half (see left).  Unfortunately, Bentancur had to leave the pitch a few minutes after the tackle; the worse news was that Bentancur, who was just coming back from knee injury, sustained an ankle injury and will be out for over two months.  It was a reckless challenge and Cash was shown a yellow.  Every time he touched the ball after that, Spurs fans booed him.  Postgame social media was full of calls for Cash to be retroactively suspended.  I understand the sentiment but fouls, cards and suspensions aren't based on injuries, they're based on severity of the infraction.

Other Pleasant Surprises

The Man City - Liverpool contest turned out to be a good watch rather than a blowout for the home team.  City were the better side but Liverpool hung tough all game and were rewarded with a late goal from Alexander-Arnold to grab a 1-1 draw. 

As we hoped, Brentford were solid at home and made their contest with Arsenal a contest.   Only an 89th minute goal from Kai Havertz kept the Bees from walking away with a draw.  With the City - Liverpool draw, the Gunners' win moves them to the top of the table.

Okay, Everton - Man United wasn't close but it did have this week's YouTubeableMoment, a stunning bicycle kick by Alejandro Garnacho.  Hmm, that may partly explain why the final was 3-0 favor Man United but the xG was 2.38 - 1.92 for the Toffees.  The xG for Garnacho's shot? 0.03!

The matchweek concluded with a fun 3-2 win for Fulham over Wolves.  Well, fun if you're a Cottager fan.  Wolves came back twice but were undone by a penalty in stoppage time.  It was the correct call (at least IMHO) but Wolves manager Gary O'Neil must feel snakebit by now as this was the third late PK to cost them a draw.

We'll Always Have Paris

Newcastle and their fans were in Paris for a key Champions League clash against PSG.  On Monday night, fans were attacked by PSG Ultras.  Details are here; looks like there were no serious injuries.  As for the match, Newcastle got a first half goal from Isak, then spent most of the rest of the match pakring the bus.  They were minutes away from pulling off an amazing upset until a questionable handling call gave PSG a PK which they converted for a 1-1 draw.

Before launching into a rant about how the handling call against Livramento was one of the worst VAR decisions this year, I will note that call was not why Newcastle could only manage a 1-1 draw.  No, the issue was that the ball spent about 90% of its time in the second half in Newcastle's final third, much of it in the penalty area.  The stats were incredibly lopsided; possession was 73/27, shots 31/5, shots on target 7/2 and xG 4.47/1.48.  With no bench, they had exhausted defenders on the pitch who could only hack the ball away for the last 20 minutes or so of the match.  Something bad was bound to happen. Only PSG's terrible shooting kept the score at 1-0 going into stoppage time.

As for the play, you can see it here.  Referee Szymon Marciniak did not signal for a handball.  The VAR directed him to the monitor, at which point he changed his mind.  What I thought was the relevant section of the law says it is handling if:

• touches the ball with their hand/arm when it has made their body unnaturally bigger. A player is considered to have made their body unnaturally bigger when the position of their hand/arm is not a consequence of, or justifiable by, the player’s body movement for that specific situation. By having their hand/arm in such a position, the player takes a risk of their hand/arm being hit by the ball and being penalised

Does anybody disagree that Livramento's arm is exactly where you would expect it to be for a player who is running?  Livramento's elbow isn't even that far away from this body, though his forearm is.  A ridiculous call for me, especially given the on-field ruling was no penalty.  We'll add inconsistency to the list of charges as well.  A mere 20 minutes earlier in the match, the ball hit Lewis Miley in the arm in the box; Marciniak did not call that one either and the VAR was satisified that this was not handling and did not direct Marciniak to the monitor.  I didn't think that was a foul either but his arm was arguably in a more unnatural position that Livramento's was.  

That the VAR official was dropped from his next game suggests that UEFA officials agree that this was a bad call.   He was also criticized for not offering enough different replay angles to the referee.  As far as I can tell, Marciniak was not also "stood down" because he did not have another Champions League match this week. Check out the contrasting responses to the UEFA "apology" from Dennis and Steve.  I would note that Paramount might want to consider dropping their supposed referee expert Christina Unkel for a game or two as well.  Here was her explanation as to why it was a penalty:

“What’s getting everyone lost because it’s in the law is the word ‘natural,’" Unkel explains. "This is a natural running motion, however the interpretation and application is trying to get less subjective and more objective, which is coming out with these harsh decisions that people in the football community do not like. It’s not on the referees, they are required to apply it like this at this point.”

Excuse me but WTF is she saying?  Have referees been instructed to ignore the "natural position" exemption written in the law?  UEFA's action suggests no.  

The draw does keep open a change for Newcastle to advance; the Magpies must be AC Milan while PSG has to lose to Dortmund.  Neither result is impossible but they are long odds.

Deja Vu All Over Again

Well, actually reverse deja vu.  Bayern and Copenagen were level at 0-0 in second half stoppage time in their Champions League match. A ball bounced up and hit a Copenhagen defender's arm and the referee signalled for a penalty.  You can see the play here.  As you'll note, the VAR sent the referee to the monitor, where she reversed herself and signalled no penalty.  I think they got this one right, even if it was closer to a penalty than the Newcastle play.  Copenhagen definitely benefited from the shit storm generated by the Livramento handball.  They hung on for the 0-0 away draw and slip into second place in the group.  This was not good news for Man United, who played Galatasaray to an exciting and bizarre 3-3 draw.  They now have to win against Bayern while hoping that Copenhagen and Galatasaray play to a draw in the final group stage matches in two weeks.

Man City and Arsenal are through to the knock out phase of the Champions League.  Brighton and Liverpool will advance out of the group stage of Europa League, and Aston Villa will move onto the knock out phase of Europa Conference League.

There Are No Replays in Jet Landings

Speaking of VAR, did you see that Howard Webb has sought the help of British Airways pilots to improve the communication process between the VARs and the center referees.  Details are here.  Actually, I've heard of worse ideas.  When was the last time you had a landing called back for offside?

Ending With A Whimper

How much parallax error?

The Union's conference semi-final with Cincinnati Saturday night played out largely as we expected it would.  Chippy but maybe not as bad as we feared; 31 fouls and four yellow cards.  Maybe a missed red card late?  There were some shots on goal.  Not surprisingly the match dragged into second half stoppage time 0-0.  On a free kick in the 94th minute, the U's marking went to the sleep and Mosquera put away the game winner.  Except wait, there may have been offside on the header to Mosquera.  The still picture sure makes it look like it is offside.  But, the camera angle is biased towards an offside call and we all know about parallax error at this point.  MLS doesn't use lines like EPL and Apple doesn't deploy as many cameras for their broadcasts as they do for EPL matches so there was no clear and obvious picture to overturn the call.  I have no issue with the call but that the MLS hasn't put the resources into a better process.  

Definitely an up-and-down season for the Union.  There were moments that felt like last year but they were never sustained.  Clearly there will be some changes next year.  Wagner is almost certainly gone.  Carranza may not be back.  Same with Mbaizo.  What is Bedoya's future?  Plenty to ponder this winter.

Two Matchweeks In One

EPL fits two match weeks in six days and there are even some interesting fixtures.  Among our recommendations:

Burnley vs Sheffield United - Saturday 10 am on USA - 20th place takes on 18th in an early relegation contest

Newcastle vs Man United - Saturday 3 pm on USA (a special late Saturday match!) - two teams close in the standings (7th and 6th); Newcastle won with their second team in Carabao Cup a few weeks ago and that might have Man United primed for this one.  This is Opta's closest match of the weekend with the Magpies the slightest of favorites at 37/29/34.

Man City vs Spurs - Sunday at 11:30 on Peacock (yep, they are figuring out which fixtures to put behind the paywall) - Yeah, Spurs have lost three in a row and Opta doesn't think much of their chances here.  But, City are coming off two draws so we keep our hopes up

Aston Villa vs Man City - Wednesday at 3:15, TV not known yet - Villa (4th heading into the weekend) are playing attractive football so we have modest hopes for a good one

Man United vs Chelsea - Wednesday at 3:15, TV not known yet - Chelsea's recent form almost made me not list this one but you never know

Happy to see that there is no Saturday match at 7:30.  The NBC feature match at 12:30 on Saturday between Nottingham Forest and Everton may not jump out you but it does figure to be quite competitive.  You have four choices at 9 am on Sunday.  For the neutral we recommend the TV choice, Chelsea - Brighton.  Here we will be watching Bournemouth - Aston Villa.  

Only two choices on Tuesday - Wolves vs Burnley or Luton Town vs Arsenal.  Oh well.  For Thursday we will go with Newcastles at Everton but neutrals could easily be persuaded to take in the London derby between Spurs and West Ham.  

With matches against Wolves and Luton Town, Arsenal have every prospect of staying a top the table through the week.  Liverpool's week doesn't look all that tough either with away matches at Fulham and Sheffield United.  

If They Have MLS Conference Finals and Nobody Watches Does It Make A Sound?

I don't mean that because the Union are out.  I would gladly watch both Cincinnati - Columbus and LAFC - Houston.  There's every reason to believe they could be interesting matches.  However, they are both behind the MLS Season (Thou Shalt Not) Pass paywall so we won't get to see them.  

I have no idea of the bigger picture but certainly for me the MLS has done serious damage to its brand between the TV deal, the mid-season league play interruption and the playoff format and scheduling.  It's late so I'll skip the rant for another day.

Plenty of EPL to keep us occupied.

Back to Business

As Garrison Keillor used to say, it's been a quiet week in Lake Wobegon. Other than a few European Championship qualifiers and refereeing some CHYSC games, we didn't do much soccer related stuff.  A good break but time to get back to the serious business at hand.  Between Saturday 11/25 and Tuesday 1/2, there will be just seven days without English football. 

What Happened To My Points?  They Were Right Here A Minute Ago?

We have chronicled Everton's struggle to break free of the gravititational pull of the relegation zone.  At last look they had done a good job to put nine points between them and 18th place.  Last Friday they were hit with the largest penalty in EPL history - a 10 point deduction - for violating profit and sustainability rules.  The details are here.  The deduction dropped them from 14th down to 19th place, level on points with last place Burnley.  Note that Everton have appealed so it's not clear that this is over.

There doesn't seem to be much dispute over whether there was a violation but there is disagreement over how big the overspending was and what the appropriate sanction is.  That discussion gets interesting real fast when you compare Everton's treatment to that of Man City.  I'll admit my first reaction was Man City gets away with it while Everton are hammered.  As the article points out, there really are some important differences between the two cases.  However, my guess is that after reading about the differences you'll still conclude that the big guys got away with it and the little guys got nailed.  Everton admitted their mistake, though they disagree as to the severity of the violation.  City didn't admit to anything, lied about what they did and escaped punishment because an appeals body felt that the EPL didn't prove their case or that some of the violations were time limited by UEFA rules.  That does not bode well for Everton's appeal as some level of violation has already been admitted to and the UEFA time limitations do not apply here.

I heartily recommend a full read of the article as it goes into some thorny sub-issues, like what about the teams that Everton beat out for relegation the last two years?  Don't they have a case for damages now?

'Tis the Season

Baby face Lewis Hall could be a
big factor in how Newcastle survive injuries

Thanksgiving to New Years Day is a congested time for English football.  The Premier League likes to cram in extra games around Christmas so Newcastle have eight EPL contests between now and January 1.  They also have the last two group stage matches for Champions League.  Throw in the Carabao Cup quarter final and you get 11 matches in 38 days.  The EPL schedule includes fixtures against Chelsea, Man United, Tottenham and Liverpool.  The best part is that this comes at a time when Newcastle have a league high 15 players out.  Almiron and Isak might make it back by Saturday.  Botman might be back by 12/12 while Wilson and Anderson could return as soon as 12/26.  Lewis Hall, the 1219 year -old who has done an admirable job filling in at left back we got on loan from Chelsea, is ineligible to play this Saturday against his parent club.  At least Guimaraes will be back from suspension.   

This could some tough viewing for a while.

MLS (Mighty Lame Scheduling)

So the MLS (remember them, 18 teams make the playoffs, best of three first round playoffs with shootouts?) will return for the conference semi-finals on Saturday and Sunday.  The average break for the teams between their last first round match and this weekend's fixtures is 16.6 days.  Really helpful for building interest in the games.  Plus they are all on MLS Season Pass ( well, one, Houston - Sporting KC, is also on FS1.

So maybe the next three weekends will be action packed and they'll get away with this.  But was this really necessary?  I know the international break was a given.  Except it was known a long time ago; my 2020 edition of Football Manager had it.  They could have done one of two things.  Probably very difficult to do but they could have worked the schedule out to be done on 11/12 before the break.  Or, more reasonably, they could have gotten through the conference finals by 11/12, then had a two-week break like they do for the Super Bowl, then played the final.  

I will be interested to hear how they do on the ratings given that all but one match will be behind a pay wall.  Briefly considered a short-term subscription but decided against it.  I will listen to the U on 97.5 this weekend and then see what pickins we get for the conference final and MLS Cup Final.  Would they really have the final behind a paywall?

Oh yeah, the Union play Cincinnati away at 8 pm on Saturday night.  They are clearly underdogs here, their odds further reduced by the absences of Glesnes and Wagner.  Carranza might actually be available (as The Inquirer's Tannenwald pointed out, possibly the only good thing about the long layoff).  FCC will be missing key defender Miazga due to suspension for yellow card accumulation in the playoffs so there is that.  A Union win would look something like we're under the gun the whole night, Blake makes some spectacular saves and we get a set piece goal or win on PKs.  Stranger things have happened.

Turkey to Peacock

Three top ten clashes in the EPL this weekend but the most interesting match might be a 16 vs 18 matchup.  NBC/USA looks to be fine-tuning their strategy to put the better matches on Peacock.

We start early (7:30) on Saturday with what on paper should be the top match of the weekend -  1st place Man City vs 2nd place Liverpool.  Except the analysts don't see this as a close match.  Opta has it 52/26/22 favor City; this is by far the widest spread (30 points) for any match this weekend.  Betting odds also heavily favor Man City.  Is the gap between first and second really this big?  Home field advantage is clearly playing into this but the spread still seems wide.  This one is on Peacock, which means early to rise as you can't DVR it.

The 10 am slot is crowded with five contests.  The TV match is arguably the least interesting of the bunch - Nottingham Forest hosting Brighton.  Our choice is easy as we will be going with Newcastle - Chelsea (arguably best game on Peacock, not USA).  I am astonished at the Opta numbers which slightly favor the Magpies 37/29/34; with Newcastle's injury list I expected Chelsea to be a solid favorite here.  They're banged up a bit too but won't be missing as many key players.  I'll take a draw in a heartbeat.  

Two other choices better than the TV game are Sheffield United - Bournemouth or Luton Town - Crystal Palace.  Both look real close on paper.  Bournemouth, coming off the win over Newcastle, could make a further jump away from the relegation zone.  Last choice would be Burnley - West Ham.

The feature TV game at 12:30 (USA not NBC) doesn't look all that great though it is a London Derby between Brentford and Arsenal.  Maybe in their friendly environs, the Bees will make a contest of it.

I'm looking forward to Sunday's 9 am match between Spurs and Aston Villa (USA).  I had fancied the Villans as a serious challenger here but Opta, at 48/27/25, doesn't think so.  Maybe that's just home field advantage again but I would have expected this to be closer.  At 11 am, also on USA, we have Everton - Man United.  Sure United have been piling up the points but they've been doing so with slim victories over mediocre opposition; still, this is a tough fixture for the Toffees to start digging out from the point deduction.  Monday's 3 pm match on USA - Fulham vs Wolves - is probably worth a look; what else you going to do late on a Monday afternoon.

Don't forget the European competitions have fixtures Tuesday - Thursday.  Newcastle are at PSG Tuesday at 3 pm; a loss there will mean they can't advance to the knockout round and even a draw leaves them in a desperate spot.  Arsenal and Man City are looking pretty good for advancement while Man United are fourth in their group but still in the hunt.  Their match versus Galatasaray (12:30 Wednesday) is pretty much a must win as they have to face Bayern in their last group stage fixture.

In Europa Conference League, Aston Villa can clinch advancement to the knockout stage with a win or draw versus Legia Warszawa (3 pm on Thursday).  In Europa League, Liverpool and West Ham have already locked up spots in the knockout rounds; Brighton could grab a spot as well with a win on Thursday versus AEK Athens.

Not going to be a lot of days off between now and January 2.  Best bet is to schedule meetings for Mondays and Fridays as there are no open Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays until 2024.

Is There A Doctor In The House?

A special Tuesday edition of BFS given the international break and we'll be back on Black Friday.

Dominic Solanke beats Pope for a second time. 
Photograph: Graham Hunt/ProSports/Shutterstock

Newcastle are certainly not the only team dealing with injuries and absences.  However, according
to this table, they do have the most of any EPL side, by some margin.  They looked tired and overmatched in a 2-0 loss to 17th place Bournemouth.  The stats match what I saw - shots were 19/8, shots on target 10/5 and xG 2.53/.66.  And, they added Almiron to the injury list; I didn't see a timeframe for his return.  Looking at the expected return dates provided in that table, we could be looking at a thin squad through the end of the year.

Better Weather Elsewhere

The skies were clearer, at least metaphorically, in Birmingham as Aston Villa did a thorough job on Fulham.  The first half was about as close to a perfect half for the Villans as they built a 2-0 lead.  Sure, the first was an OG by Robinson but deserved based on the pressure.  The second was a laser from McGinn, who displayed his characteristic high energy football despite by persistent fouling by different Fulham players.  The third goal was a three-man effort started by a defensive header from Watkins followed by some back and forth work from Bailey and McGinn ending with a pass from Bailey to Watkins for the finish.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment; check out the ground covered by Watkins between the header inside the Villa six to the finish inside the Fulham six.  Apparently the Nottingham Forest result was a hiccup.

A Decent Game of Football

We hope John Champion was pleased that he got to cover the 4-4 draw between Chelsea and Man City.  Certainly not perfection but most entertaining.  Each side rallied from deficits - City once and Chelsea three times, the last coming in stoppage.  The best part was how we had such low expectations for what used to be a feature match and got this see-saw affair instead.  Watching the match I would say Chelsea was the side that was always battling to keep up but the stats say it was basically even.  

The Ghost of Conte?

Until Saturday, we would have said that even though Tottenham weren't always dominant, they never looked timid.  Even down two players to Chelsea, they attacked.  Not this time.  Wolves at Molineux is no picnic but Spurs just looked tepid in a 2-1 loss.   A goal just three minutes in augured well except that was it.  They kept Wolves at bay so to speak but never really had control of the match.  They paid dearly when Wolves scored not once, but twice in stoppage time.  Like Newcastle, Spurs have a long list of injuries - notably van de Ven and Maddison (both until January) - so that certainly didn't help.  Spurs fans will hope this was just a glitch.  

Doing Better at Identifying the Best Option

Happy to say that for the second straight week, we recommended the best of the bunch for the 10 am slot.  And again, we didn't get to watch it because of refereeing.  Those who went with Crystal Palace - Everton were rewarded with an excellent back and forth contest that wasn't decided until late.  Palace rallied from one-goal deficits twice only to be sunk by a goal from Idrissa Gueye in the 86th minute.  The Toffees have seven points in the last three games and after a poor start are eight points clear of the drop zone.

Two more red cards and two more results for the red carded sides.  Arsenal were already up 3-1 on Burnley when Vieira saw straight red in the 83rd minute and the score didn't change.  Brighton were up 1-0 when Dahoud also got a straight red in teh 69th minute.  The Seagulls were not so fortunate, although they did hang on for a 1-1 draw.  Totals for the year are 8-5-11.

Erik ten Hang In There saw his Man United team squeak by another less than difficult opponent, shading 18th place Luton Town 1-0.  They are getting results, at least in the EPL, but they are certainly not impressing anybody right now.  

The score line shows 3-0 Liverpool over Brentford but xG was just 1.61-1.50.  Since I didn't see it, I don't know who was lucky or unlucky or who had great shooting/great goalkeeping.  Any which way it's three for Liverpool and they are second in the table.  With a 3-2 final and a late deciding goal, West Ham - Nottingham Forest was probably a fun watch.  Refereeing is done for the year so maybe I'll see some of these games going forward.

We Saw What You Did There, Raheem

I can't find video but in the dying moments of Chelsea - Man City, Sterling felt that he was fouled in getting dispossessed.  He thrashed a bit.  Then he realized that a) Man City were on the counter for perhaps a winning goal in the final seconds and b) Anthony Taylor had no intention of calling a foul or stopping play.  So naturally he started writhing histronically.  I mean even Neymar would have been embarrassed.  

Dodging the Bullet

The first round of the MLS playoffs are done and seven of eight top seeds are through, with only St. Louis failing to make it through.  That's an 88% success rate.  BFS Ultra Guy Jeff H sent us this article from Forbes that said the first round average for 2019-2022 was 77%.  The problem is that this is not an apples to apples comparison.  In those years the top seed got a bye so there were only three match ups in each conference - 2-7, 3-6 and 4-5.  With this new format they added a 1-8 game to the mix so you would expect the percentage to be higher. 

However, there are still some comparisons that can be made, recognizing that we're dealing with small numbers here.  In 2023, the 2-7, 3-6 and 4-5 seeds were 6-0.  Between 2019-2022, they were 19-5.  For this limited data set, the three-game format got more of the top seeds through.  The cost was a number one seed.  

I'm sticking with the opinion that the format so cheapens the regular season as to render it close to meaningless.  Undoubtedly, its supporters will point out there were fewer upsets and lots of exciting football.  Somebody made money too I'm sure.

Cup action will resume after Thanksgiving.

$peaking of Bad Ideas

Fake money litters the pitch 

During their Champions League match with Newcastle, Dortmund fans were throwing fake money and gold coins on the pitch. One might have assumed this was directed at the PIF, money bag owners of Newcastle but one would be wrong.  They are protesting upcoming changes to the Champions League format.  The new format, explained in this article, looks worse than the MLS playoffs.  Instead of eight groups of four, there will be one table of 36 teams.  But, there will still be four groups of nine inside that huge table and each team would play two teams from each of the four pots.  First through eight go to the knockout round while teams 9-24 do a one-game playoff  (9-24, 10-23, etc.) to determine the other eight teams.

So eight instead of six group stage games to fit into the schedule, an extra playoff game for teams that finish 9-24.  Presumably the pots will have some basis in strength but it still seems like there could be massive differences in difficulty of schedule.  Just can't help themselves.  

"A scorpion asks a frog to carry him over a river. The frog is afraid of being stung, but the scorpion argues that if it did so, both would sink and the scorpion would drown. The frog then agrees, but midway across the river the scorpion does indeed sting the frog, dooming them both. When asked why, the scorpion points out that this is its nature."

Spot On

BFS Artistic Director Laura O sends us this compilation of spot-on imitations.  It's a tie (draw?) for me between the first Haaland impression or the Maguire folly.  

Enjoy your Thanksgiving 

Get Off the Fainting Couch

Players whining.  Managers ranting.  Announcers complaining.  So much nonsense about refereeing for one weekend.  VAR did this.  VAR didn't do that.  What's a blogger to do?  By Monday evening, the announcer and pundits were claiming that COVID started in the VAR facilities at Stockley Park.  I kid but barely.  We'll try to unpack it with a minimum of ranting from me but no guarantees.

Magpies Undo Arsenal

The goal that launched a thousand rants
IMAGO/Sportimage/Nigel Roddis

The final was 1-0 Newcastle but you may have missed that in all the commotion.  This was by no means a pretty game to watch.  No flow, lots of hard challenges, three total shots on goal.  Havertz made an "orange" card challenge on Longstaff and three Newcastle players got yellows for dissent on the play.  Guimaraes probably should have been sent off for an arm to the head of Jorginho.  Chippy all day.

And then there was the goal.  You can see it here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  It's a long one because the VAR review took four minutes.  During that review they checked whether the ball had crossed the end line, whether Joelinton had fouled Gabriel and whether Gordon was offside.  The answers were eventually no, maybe but it's not an obvious error and there's no way we can know. So under the rules of the game, the goal stood and the final was 1-0.

The win was an unexpected three points but it came with some negatives.  Dan Burn and Jacob Murphy picked up injuries to add to the long list already out.  And there is Guimaraes's increasingly concerning behavior.  He did pick up his 5th yellow (ironically on a play where he arguably did little or nothing wrong) and will serve a one-game suspension.  But the bigger issue is stuff like the arm to the head of Jorginho.  He puts the team in jeopardy with actions like that and Newcastle were lucky not to have spent a big part of that game a man down.  

Afterwards, Mikel Arteta was surprisingly gracious in his comments about the referees:

At some point as well we need to give support and understand that mistakes happen. We’ve made mistakes as well and if the pressure is so much then it’s very difficult to manage."

Oh wait, that was Arteta after VAR mix-up in the Liverpool - Tottenham match a few weeks ago.  Arteta's comments after Saturday's match were:

Praising my players for the way we played, we didn't deserve to lose the match playing in their ground and we lose because of clear and obvious decisions. It is embarrassing, it is a disgrace, that's what it is, a disgrace.

Conclusive proof that ball was out? Only if you don't
know the rule about the ball being completely over the line...
and parallax error (see photo below right)

Of course, in his rant he did not specifically point out what was wrong with the decisions.  Was the ball out?  The picture we saw on TV did show green space between the ball and the line but as we all know, the ball has to be completely over line to be out so that tells us nothing.  Also, the angle of the picture was not straight down the line.  A picture found later showed that the ball was in fact in the whole time.  

Close, but not out.  In other words, they got it right.

As for the offside, there was no video  - none - to show conclusively whether Gordon was off.  Maybe he was, maybe he wasn't.  But declaring it was obvious that he was offside is putting you in close company with 2020 election deniers.  As to the foul, that's highly subjective.  The fact that many pundits argued that it wasn't sugguests there was no clear and obvious error.

Also try this thought experiment.  Imagine that this was Arsenal's goal to level the match at 1-1 and it was ruled out by VAR for any of the reasons Arteta claimed were obvious. Cue the exploding head.

Nice to see many publications call Arteta out on his rant.  I liked this one from ESPN: 

It was a remarkable reaction and completely removed from the reality of the situation. You could understand Liverpool's anger when Luiz Diaz's goal wasn't allowed against Tottenham, but this isn't remotely close to that. It's a series of situations that are fully explainable. There's no smoking gun over a VAR error. Arsenal's reaction was over the top and unnecessary, creating added pressure when unwarranted.

The five-person panel that reviews these things voted 4-1 in favor of Atwell's decision not to change his on field calls on the goal.  Note however that the panel voted unaminously that Havertz should have been shown red for his challenge on Longstaff and 3-2 that Guimaraes should have gotten a red card for his elbow on Jorginho.  Details can be had here.  For the record, I was okay with Havertz getting yellow and the Newcastle players getting yellows too.  Didn't see much physical gesturing but if Atwell told them enough and they kept yapping, the yellows are justified.  I was leaning towards a red for Guimaraes.  I feel like VAR can be a big help on these off the ball, behind the play incidents and I'd be fine if referees were really tough on those calls.  Players do respond to how the games are officiated (how often have you seen a player wave the imaginary yellow card lately?) so if they get the message that there's a crackdown on this type of shithousery, we might see less of it.

Not Always Good To Be King

Four of the five top sides dropped points over the weekend, with only Man City getting a win (6-1 over Bournemouth - yawn).  We already discussed Arsenal.  On Sunday Aston Villa put up a real clunker against Nottingham Forest, falling 2-0 on the road.  I remember not being too worried when the Villans gave up a goal at five minutes but becoming increasingly concerned as the match dragged on.  A second goal to start the second half didn't help.  Reviewing my conversation with Dennis during the match, the single word text "Embarrassing" from him likely says it best.  

Then we had Liverpool at Kenilworth Road, the home of Luton Town.  The announcer said it had "the feel of a 3rd Round FA Cup in January."  Translating that, he's saying we've got a lower tier team facing one of the top teams and the underdog home fans are cheering wildly like they have a chance.  In other words, he was basically insulting Luton Town.  They almost had the last laugh and definitely got the next-to-last chuckle.  After holding Liverpool scoreless for most of the match, Luton Town grabbed a 1-0 lead in the 80th minute.  They were denied the win by a Luis Diaz goal in the 5th of eight stoppage time minutes.  Still the point against Liverpool had to be satisfying

Tottenham's run as the last undefeated side ended on Monday.  Kulusevski got Spurs up quickly but things went south pretty much after that.  This was curious stuff no doubt.  Udogie got a yellow for an "orange" card challenge on Sterling.  Chelsea had a goal ruled out only to have it replaced with a penalty kick for a straight red on Romero in the box.  That could have been his second red as earlier he had petulantly kicked out at Colwill but somehow escaped sanction.  That made it hard to have much sympathy as to whether this challenge was red or not.  

So Chelsea level the match with the PK and now have a man advantage.  Which they proceeded to do not much with.  Spurs tried to make it even easier as Udogie (whoa doggie?) got his second yellow at 55 minutes.  Still no response from Chelsea.  Finally in the 75th minute, Nicholas Jackson at last got one of his shots on target and put the Blues up.  Amazingly the Spurs responded and looked to have leveled it with Dier's goal a few minutes later but that was ruled offside.  Chelsea added two in stoppage time to post a 4-1 final that is completely flattering to them.  Other fun items for Spurs were that Van de Ver and Maddison both had to leave with injuries.

Oh, and we had John Champion whining for most of the game about VAR, noting at one point "all we've come for is a decent game of football."  His concluding remarks referenced something like "a VAR-scarred match."  I've always liked Champion but not if he's going to whine like this.  You know that without VAR, Champion would be the first to highlight the controversial nature of a play if there was a hint of uncertainty.  You're talking out of both sides of your mouth John.  As Dennis put it "they act like they want to go back to the days when you could get away with anything."  

That said, I wouldn't mind if the ARs were told that they can raise the flag right away if there's space between the attacker and the last defender.  Dennis is willing to go with half a yard as being far enough offside.  The point is, these guys are pretty good - how often do you see false positives? - so the definition of what's close can probably be narrowed.

The Manager Who Cried Wolves

If there's anybody who maybe has some legitimate bones to pick with the refereeing this year, it's Wolves manager Gary O' Neil.  Thus far, three referees who made controversial decisions in Wolves' matches have been "dropped" from Premier League assignments the following week.  In week 1 Simon Hooper didn't call a PK against Man United and refereed a Championship Division game the following week.  In week 6 Josh Smith made a questionable handling call in favor of Luton Town and found himself doing lower level games since.  Two weeks ago we noted that Anthony Taylor's call in the box on Hwang might have been soft.  Howard Webb thought so and gave Taylor a week in the Championship Division.

It was deja vu all over again on Saturday as Robert Jones (with no apparent dissent from VAR Chris Kavanagh) decided to award Sheffield United a PK for this play in the 10th minute of stoppage time.  That looks softer than the foul called on Hwang last week.  The PK was converted and Sheffield United got all three points with a 2-1 win.  As of publication, Jones is set to be the 4th official for West Ham - Nottingham Forest while Kavanagh will be in the center for Bournemouth - Newcastle.  

Around the League

Man United's last second 1-0 win over Fulham probably didn't do a whole lot for ten Hag's long term prospects.  On the other hand, a 0-0 draw would have been worse.  Everton got another point with a 1-1 draw at home to Brighton.  Burnley's struggles continue as they dropped another one, 0-2 this time to Crystal Palace.  The match to watch was probably Brentford's see-saw 3-2 win over West Ham.  

After 11 weeks, Man City has worked their way back to the top, with Tottenham, Liverpool and Arsenal close behind.  The biggest gap right now is the five point spread between 16th and 17th.  Everton have slowly forged this gap, leaving Luton Town, Bournemouth, Burnley and Sheffield United all tightly packed in the bottom four spots.

Europe Stuff

Newcastle weren't awful in a 2-0 loss to Dortmund away.  Well, not in the second half anyway.  After a moribund first half, they did manage a few scoring chances after the break.  The starting XI included Livramento, a fullback, as right forward, such is the depth of injuries right now.  AC Milan's win over PSG does mean the group is still up for grabs but with a depleted squad, I"m not seeing Newcastle take advantage of that.  

Yeah I know it's a freeze frame but that's not a good look

Oh look, there's another manager saying the officiating cost his team the match.  Erik ten Hag felt that it wasn't a red card on Rashford, there was offside on one of the Copenhagen goals and the handling call on Maguire was incorrect.  Not going to get much sympathy from me on the red card.  The offside question was not about whether the player was in an offside position but whether he was screening Onana; I thought it was a possibility but apparently VAR did not.  On the handling call, it was consistent with what we've seen all year - get your arms up and extended at shoulder level or higher and there's a good chance they'll call it.  

More Ugly

The pitch at our "favorite" venue - Gillette Stadium - was not looking as white as the last time the Union played there and you had to look real hard to see the NFL lines.  You also had to look hard for some attractive football.  The U were clearly caught on the back foot for the opening 20 minutes or so but then managed to make things a bit more even.  They got a big break when Kaye stomped on Gazdag's chest to earn himself a red card just before half time.  Didn't seem to give the U much of an advantage and it felt like New England were as, or even more, likely to score.  A set piece late from McGlynn to Donovan in the 79th minute broke the deadlock.  You can see that goal here.  That would be it for the scoring.

McGlynn: Creating chances

Not the greatest of games but when you break some things down there were some positives.  They were without Glesnes (injury), Carranza (injury) and Wagner (three game suspension for racial slur at Bobby Wood in the first game) but got solid performances from Lowe, Sullivan and Harriel to cover.  And Jack McGlynn played one of his best matches this season.  

And so it's on to the conference semi-final against Cincinnati sometime after Thanksgiving?  WTF?  MLS goofball playoffs are only part of the problem; there's an international break that takes the weekend of 11/18-19 off the table.

A Break?

Well, sort of.  There's a full slate of EPL matches crammed into Saturday and Sunday.  On paper, not looking like a set of highly competitive fixtures.  Hmm, no derbies for the first time in awhile as well.

Back to the old 7:30 start with Wolves hosting Spurs on USA.  Figure Tottenham bounces back here.  Three choices at 10.  I'm going with what should be a highly competitive contest between Crystal Palace and Everton.  TV chose Man United vs Luton Town; figure ten Hag still on the hot seat so they must win.  Or you can go with Arsenal - Burnley, which also doesn't look too close.  We finish Saturday with Newcastle remaining in the limelight, getting the 12:30 NBC feature match as they travel to Bournemouth.  They'll be depleted - even more so without Guimaraes - but they are still solid favorites.

We have that Sunday 9 am logjam again, with four to choose from.  No choice for us as Aston Villa is hosting Fulham; we actually recommend that one to the neutral as well because it looks like the most competitive.  TV went with West Ham - Nottingham Forest.  Brighton - Sheffield United or Liverpool - Brentford are the other two choices.  The matchweek concludes at 11:30 with what we would usually expect to be a decent match up between Chelsea and Man City.   Maybe not so much any more.  Even at Stamford Bridge, Opta has City at 50% to win and 27% to draw.  

Three MLS matches to wrap up the first round, one each day, all on MLS Season Pass.  Friday is Seattle - Dallas, Saturday has Houston - Real Salt Lake and Sunday is Columbus - Atlanta.  So far just one favorite (St. Louis) has gone down but these last matches offer three more chances for upsets.

Euro qualifiers starting Wednesday and running through Monday.  A quick check on FS1 and FS2 shows some interesting matches will be available on TV.

Yeah, I know I missed a lot of stuff.  Ranting takes up a lot of space.