Despite going to a wedding out in Central PA, I did get to see more games than I expected thanks to fortuitous scheduling, Peacock replays and DVR so I do have some observations from the weekend.
Life Is Easier A Man Up
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| Jimenez literally head butts Longstaff |
Shouldn't That Be "I Got a Red Card?"
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| Frank incensed - another holiday traditon? |
This one got ugly after the red card. Thomas Frank was not pleased with the sending off decision, nor initially with Watkins' response after the game winner. They did talk after the full time whistle and seemed okay. Maupay and Martinez had their own little playground spat that ended up with Kamara getting a red card for hands to the throat of a Brentford player. All most unsavory.
Man City continue to show cracks as they coughed up a 2-0 lead, at home no less, and could only manage a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace. Liverpool basically ran roughshod over Man United but only managed a 0-0 draw for their efforts. Arsenal were more clinical, dispatching Brighton 2-0 to move back to the top of the table. Spurs survived the sending off of Yves Bissouma (who is now out for four matches) in a 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest.
Everton grabbed another three points with 2-0 win over Burnley and keep moving farther away from the relegation zone. Chelsea were more than happy to add to Sheffield United's woes, beating the Blades 2-0 and finally making it to the top half of the table. The biggest gap in the table is now the five points between 17th place Forest and the bottom three of Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United.
Christmas Cards
The weekend saw 39 yellow cards and five red cards. Brentford - Aston Villa were responsible for 10 yellows and two reds as discipline was in short supply for that one. Yellow cards are up from 3.62 last year to 4.53 this year so the weekend harvest is actually slightly below average. But the five reds is way above the average of .2 per game. Stats may be evening out a bit from earlier in the year, as we're seeing more matches where a red card means you lose; still the record so far is 12 wins, 7 draws and 16 losses.
We're building a data base on this year's red card stats, partly in response to the idea being thrown about to move from red cards to a "sin bin" concept where the offending player is sent off for a period of time rather than whole game. The concept is discussed in this article, (scroll down to This...Might Work), sent along by BFS Scandanavian Correspondent Jurgen B Sari (aka Philip S). Some random stats from the data so far include:
- 37 red cards have been shown- 35 games have had at least one red card (we count Brentford - Aston Villa twice because each team got one)- 8 of 37 red cards were shown after 90 minutes- 30 goals have been scored after red cards by the team with the advantage- in 18 of the 35 games, the team with the advantage has scored at least one goal- 11 of the 30 goals have been scored within 10 minutes of the sending off but that includes 4 where the red card resulted in a PK so the sending off wasn't the real reason for the goal- 10 goals have been scored by the team down a man- in 9 of the games the shorthanded teams have scored;
For the 35 games, 15 times the team with the advantage got more goals, 5 times it was the team down a man that got more goals and 15 times it was even. If I have my math right, 51% (18/35) of the time, the sending off results in at least one goal for the team with the advantage. If we limit the sending off to 10 minutes, that advantage drops to 31% (11/35); it falls to 20% (7/35) if we exclude the PK situations. All kinds of trade-offs. Will refs be more likely to signal for serious offenses? Will players be more likely to commit them knowing the sending off is temporary? My first thought is we leave well enough alone.
Cooper "Beats" ten Hag
With Nottingham Forest winless in their last 13 matches, sitting in 17th place, Steve Cooper was sacked this week. This is clearly another case of we appreciate your past service to the club but what have you done for us lately. Cooper took over in September 2021 with Forest sitting dead last in the Championship Division. He only took them to the promotion playoffs and with a win over Huddersfield got them into the Premier League. They managed to avoid relegation last year but only by four points; this year certainly looked like it was going to be a struggle too. Nuno Espirito Santo, late of Tottenham, will take over.
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| Mudryk takes advantage of Trippier's misplay |
To be fair, this was not a great effort from Newcastle anyway. They were easily dispossessed many times, outphysicalled for most of the match and got their goal on a lucky break for Callum Wilson. It only feels sucky because they were so close to coming away with the win anyway. As with the exit from the Champions League, we are not particularly disappointed as this team doesn't need any extra games at this point.
The semis will feature Middlesborough vs Chelsea and Liverpool vs Fulham on Tuesday January 9th. See what I mean - it would have been another mid-week match for the Magpies to manage.
MLS - One Step Up, Two Steps Back
On the positive side, the MLS just adopted some rule changes relating to substitutions and injuries. Details can be had here. My two favorite are the requirement that if you're being substituted you have to be off the field in 10 seconds or your replacement has to wait a minute before coming on. The second is that if you required more than 15 seconds of treatment on the field for an injury, you have to wait two minutes before you can come back on. If this works in convincing more players they don't need medical attention, I think we ought to explore how we could adapt the concept to the general population as way to reduce health care costs.
On the other hand, the arrogance of the MLS leadership continues to shock. Last week, they announced that MLS would no longer participate in the US Open Cup but would instead send their development teams. Details are here. This is akin to the Premier League teams saying they would not participate in the FA Cup but would instead send their U-23 squads. Before proceeding to completely trash the leadership, I will offer a few mitigating points. In fact, many MLS teams do depend heavily on their reserves for early rounds of the Cup. Second, it's not just management that isn't enamored of this competition. In an interview last June, MLS Player Association Executive Director Bob Foose was quoted as saying "I can tell you that the US Open Cup is certainly not something our players look forward to."
One of the main issues cited was schedule congestion and how ditching the Cup competition opens up six match windows. Well, it wouldn't be so crowded if you hadn't introduced the Leagues Cup that shuts down the regular season for six weeks. Ah, but the difference is MLS has control over the media rights and money for that competition, unlike the US Open Cup. This article by James Nalton in The Guardian gets to the heart of the matter. Here's the money paragraph:
By removing itself from the Open Cup, MLS is attempting to control the story of Messi in US soccer by limiting Messi Mania to its own in-house marketing. In doing so, it denies those outside MLS – from broadcasters to lower league teams to fans – the chance to ride the Messi soccer wave. This is more evidence that the focus of MLS is now on growing itself rather than the sport in the country as a whole.
Reaction has been swift, similar to the outrage that immediately erupted at the announcement the Super League in Europe a few years ago. USSF has told MLS that it cannot unilaterally withdraw from the competition. So this may continue to play out over the next couple of months.
Super League Back From the Dead
Thanks to this ruling by the European Court of Justice, efforts to create a Super League are ramping up. The new proposal talks about a 64-team competition that would replace the Champions League, with two 16-team higher tier leagues and a 32-team lower tier league. There would be promotion/relegation between the leagues and access to the lower tier would be based on performance in domestic leagues. I'm not opposed to a restructured European competition as long as participation isn't guaranteed by "birthright" (i.e. market power). Hard to know yet if this new proposal is really a meritocracy. It is notable that many of the clubs from the previous attempt are saying they aren't interested and will only go with UEFA sponsored competitions.
Let the Games Begin
So with 18 matches between Friday and next Thursday, there's gotta be some good stuff, right? Well sort of. The biggest contest of the period is Liverpool - Arsenal as Saturday's 12:30 NBC feature match; yeah, 1st vs 2nd qualifies as a feature fixture. Opta has Liverpool as clear favorites at 47/27/26. The other match we have our eyes on is Aston Villa hosting Man United at 3 pm on Boxing Day on USA. Here's another test of Villa's bona fides as a title contender. No data from Opta available for the mid week matches but we like Villa's chances here.
That's pretty much it on the top end. There is a key relegation match up between Sheffield United and Luton Town on Boxing Day at 10 am on Peacock. That might be more interesting than the alternative Bournemouth - Fulham on USA.
We'll also recommend West Ham vs Man United, Saturday morning's 7:30 am match on USA. This could be close, as both teams have been in the Dr. Jekyl - Mr. Hyde mode all season.
Newcastle have two matches which we might normally consider easy but with injuries and fatigue, might not be so inviting. Saturday the Magpies take on Luton Town in one of the 10 am matches (the USA one actually - we would have put Spurs - Everton in that role) and Tuesday they open up the Boxing Day festivities at 7:30 hosting Nottingham Forest. Should be six points but we'll see.
Besides the Man United match, Aston Villa start the holiday weekend off with a Friday 3 pm home match against Sheffield United. Sounds like three points to me.
There are a couple of London Derbies that could be fun. Chelsea host Crystal Palace on Wednesday at 2:30 (Peacock) and Arsenal and West Ham square off on Thursday at 3 pm (Peacock).
The full schedule is here if you want to customize your holiday viewing.
Will be interesting to see who sits atop the table this time next week.
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