Is There A Doctor In The House?

A special Tuesday edition of BFS given the international break and we'll be back on Black Friday.

Dominic Solanke beats Pope for a second time. 
Photograph: Graham Hunt/ProSports/Shutterstock

Newcastle are certainly not the only team dealing with injuries and absences.  However, according
to this table, they do have the most of any EPL side, by some margin.  They looked tired and overmatched in a 2-0 loss to 17th place Bournemouth.  The stats match what I saw - shots were 19/8, shots on target 10/5 and xG 2.53/.66.  And, they added Almiron to the injury list; I didn't see a timeframe for his return.  Looking at the expected return dates provided in that table, we could be looking at a thin squad through the end of the year.

Better Weather Elsewhere

The skies were clearer, at least metaphorically, in Birmingham as Aston Villa did a thorough job on Fulham.  The first half was about as close to a perfect half for the Villans as they built a 2-0 lead.  Sure, the first was an OG by Robinson but deserved based on the pressure.  The second was a laser from McGinn, who displayed his characteristic high energy football despite by persistent fouling by different Fulham players.  The third goal was a three-man effort started by a defensive header from Watkins followed by some back and forth work from Bailey and McGinn ending with a pass from Bailey to Watkins for the finish.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment; check out the ground covered by Watkins between the header inside the Villa six to the finish inside the Fulham six.  Apparently the Nottingham Forest result was a hiccup.

A Decent Game of Football

We hope John Champion was pleased that he got to cover the 4-4 draw between Chelsea and Man City.  Certainly not perfection but most entertaining.  Each side rallied from deficits - City once and Chelsea three times, the last coming in stoppage.  The best part was how we had such low expectations for what used to be a feature match and got this see-saw affair instead.  Watching the match I would say Chelsea was the side that was always battling to keep up but the stats say it was basically even.  

The Ghost of Conte?

Until Saturday, we would have said that even though Tottenham weren't always dominant, they never looked timid.  Even down two players to Chelsea, they attacked.  Not this time.  Wolves at Molineux is no picnic but Spurs just looked tepid in a 2-1 loss.   A goal just three minutes in augured well except that was it.  They kept Wolves at bay so to speak but never really had control of the match.  They paid dearly when Wolves scored not once, but twice in stoppage time.  Like Newcastle, Spurs have a long list of injuries - notably van de Ven and Maddison (both until January) - so that certainly didn't help.  Spurs fans will hope this was just a glitch.  

Doing Better at Identifying the Best Option

Happy to say that for the second straight week, we recommended the best of the bunch for the 10 am slot.  And again, we didn't get to watch it because of refereeing.  Those who went with Crystal Palace - Everton were rewarded with an excellent back and forth contest that wasn't decided until late.  Palace rallied from one-goal deficits twice only to be sunk by a goal from Idrissa Gueye in the 86th minute.  The Toffees have seven points in the last three games and after a poor start are eight points clear of the drop zone.

Two more red cards and two more results for the red carded sides.  Arsenal were already up 3-1 on Burnley when Vieira saw straight red in the 83rd minute and the score didn't change.  Brighton were up 1-0 when Dahoud also got a straight red in teh 69th minute.  The Seagulls were not so fortunate, although they did hang on for a 1-1 draw.  Totals for the year are 8-5-11.

Erik ten Hang In There saw his Man United team squeak by another less than difficult opponent, shading 18th place Luton Town 1-0.  They are getting results, at least in the EPL, but they are certainly not impressing anybody right now.  

The score line shows 3-0 Liverpool over Brentford but xG was just 1.61-1.50.  Since I didn't see it, I don't know who was lucky or unlucky or who had great shooting/great goalkeeping.  Any which way it's three for Liverpool and they are second in the table.  With a 3-2 final and a late deciding goal, West Ham - Nottingham Forest was probably a fun watch.  Refereeing is done for the year so maybe I'll see some of these games going forward.

We Saw What You Did There, Raheem

I can't find video but in the dying moments of Chelsea - Man City, Sterling felt that he was fouled in getting dispossessed.  He thrashed a bit.  Then he realized that a) Man City were on the counter for perhaps a winning goal in the final seconds and b) Anthony Taylor had no intention of calling a foul or stopping play.  So naturally he started writhing histronically.  I mean even Neymar would have been embarrassed.  

Dodging the Bullet

The first round of the MLS playoffs are done and seven of eight top seeds are through, with only St. Louis failing to make it through.  That's an 88% success rate.  BFS Ultra Guy Jeff H sent us this article from Forbes that said the first round average for 2019-2022 was 77%.  The problem is that this is not an apples to apples comparison.  In those years the top seed got a bye so there were only three match ups in each conference - 2-7, 3-6 and 4-5.  With this new format they added a 1-8 game to the mix so you would expect the percentage to be higher. 

However, there are still some comparisons that can be made, recognizing that we're dealing with small numbers here.  In 2023, the 2-7, 3-6 and 4-5 seeds were 6-0.  Between 2019-2022, they were 19-5.  For this limited data set, the three-game format got more of the top seeds through.  The cost was a number one seed.  

I'm sticking with the opinion that the format so cheapens the regular season as to render it close to meaningless.  Undoubtedly, its supporters will point out there were fewer upsets and lots of exciting football.  Somebody made money too I'm sure.

Cup action will resume after Thanksgiving.

$peaking of Bad Ideas

Fake money litters the pitch 

During their Champions League match with Newcastle, Dortmund fans were throwing fake money and gold coins on the pitch. One might have assumed this was directed at the PIF, money bag owners of Newcastle but one would be wrong.  They are protesting upcoming changes to the Champions League format.  The new format, explained in this article, looks worse than the MLS playoffs.  Instead of eight groups of four, there will be one table of 36 teams.  But, there will still be four groups of nine inside that huge table and each team would play two teams from each of the four pots.  First through eight go to the knockout round while teams 9-24 do a one-game playoff  (9-24, 10-23, etc.) to determine the other eight teams.

So eight instead of six group stage games to fit into the schedule, an extra playoff game for teams that finish 9-24.  Presumably the pots will have some basis in strength but it still seems like there could be massive differences in difficulty of schedule.  Just can't help themselves.  

"A scorpion asks a frog to carry him over a river. The frog is afraid of being stung, but the scorpion argues that if it did so, both would sink and the scorpion would drown. The frog then agrees, but midway across the river the scorpion does indeed sting the frog, dooming them both. When asked why, the scorpion points out that this is its nature."

Spot On

BFS Artistic Director Laura O sends us this compilation of spot-on imitations.  It's a tie (draw?) for me between the first Haaland impression or the Maguire folly.  

Enjoy your Thanksgiving