Back to Business

As Garrison Keillor used to say, it's been a quiet week in Lake Wobegon. Other than a few European Championship qualifiers and refereeing some CHYSC games, we didn't do much soccer related stuff.  A good break but time to get back to the serious business at hand.  Between Saturday 11/25 and Tuesday 1/2, there will be just seven days without English football. 

What Happened To My Points?  They Were Right Here A Minute Ago?

We have chronicled Everton's struggle to break free of the gravititational pull of the relegation zone.  At last look they had done a good job to put nine points between them and 18th place.  Last Friday they were hit with the largest penalty in EPL history - a 10 point deduction - for violating profit and sustainability rules.  The details are here.  The deduction dropped them from 14th down to 19th place, level on points with last place Burnley.  Note that Everton have appealed so it's not clear that this is over.

There doesn't seem to be much dispute over whether there was a violation but there is disagreement over how big the overspending was and what the appropriate sanction is.  That discussion gets interesting real fast when you compare Everton's treatment to that of Man City.  I'll admit my first reaction was Man City gets away with it while Everton are hammered.  As the article points out, there really are some important differences between the two cases.  However, my guess is that after reading about the differences you'll still conclude that the big guys got away with it and the little guys got nailed.  Everton admitted their mistake, though they disagree as to the severity of the violation.  City didn't admit to anything, lied about what they did and escaped punishment because an appeals body felt that the EPL didn't prove their case or that some of the violations were time limited by UEFA rules.  That does not bode well for Everton's appeal as some level of violation has already been admitted to and the UEFA time limitations do not apply here.

I heartily recommend a full read of the article as it goes into some thorny sub-issues, like what about the teams that Everton beat out for relegation the last two years?  Don't they have a case for damages now?

'Tis the Season

Baby face Lewis Hall could be a
big factor in how Newcastle survive injuries

Thanksgiving to New Years Day is a congested time for English football.  The Premier League likes to cram in extra games around Christmas so Newcastle have eight EPL contests between now and January 1.  They also have the last two group stage matches for Champions League.  Throw in the Carabao Cup quarter final and you get 11 matches in 38 days.  The EPL schedule includes fixtures against Chelsea, Man United, Tottenham and Liverpool.  The best part is that this comes at a time when Newcastle have a league high 15 players out.  Almiron and Isak might make it back by Saturday.  Botman might be back by 12/12 while Wilson and Anderson could return as soon as 12/26.  Lewis Hall, the 1219 year -old who has done an admirable job filling in at left back we got on loan from Chelsea, is ineligible to play this Saturday against his parent club.  At least Guimaraes will be back from suspension.   

This could some tough viewing for a while.

MLS (Mighty Lame Scheduling)

So the MLS (remember them, 18 teams make the playoffs, best of three first round playoffs with shootouts?) will return for the conference semi-finals on Saturday and Sunday.  The average break for the teams between their last first round match and this weekend's fixtures is 16.6 days.  Really helpful for building interest in the games.  Plus they are all on MLS Season Pass ( well, one, Houston - Sporting KC, is also on FS1.

So maybe the next three weekends will be action packed and they'll get away with this.  But was this really necessary?  I know the international break was a given.  Except it was known a long time ago; my 2020 edition of Football Manager had it.  They could have done one of two things.  Probably very difficult to do but they could have worked the schedule out to be done on 11/12 before the break.  Or, more reasonably, they could have gotten through the conference finals by 11/12, then had a two-week break like they do for the Super Bowl, then played the final.  

I will be interested to hear how they do on the ratings given that all but one match will be behind a pay wall.  Briefly considered a short-term subscription but decided against it.  I will listen to the U on 97.5 this weekend and then see what pickins we get for the conference final and MLS Cup Final.  Would they really have the final behind a paywall?

Oh yeah, the Union play Cincinnati away at 8 pm on Saturday night.  They are clearly underdogs here, their odds further reduced by the absences of Glesnes and Wagner.  Carranza might actually be available (as The Inquirer's Tannenwald pointed out, possibly the only good thing about the long layoff).  FCC will be missing key defender Miazga due to suspension for yellow card accumulation in the playoffs so there is that.  A Union win would look something like we're under the gun the whole night, Blake makes some spectacular saves and we get a set piece goal or win on PKs.  Stranger things have happened.

Turkey to Peacock

Three top ten clashes in the EPL this weekend but the most interesting match might be a 16 vs 18 matchup.  NBC/USA looks to be fine-tuning their strategy to put the better matches on Peacock.

We start early (7:30) on Saturday with what on paper should be the top match of the weekend -  1st place Man City vs 2nd place Liverpool.  Except the analysts don't see this as a close match.  Opta has it 52/26/22 favor City; this is by far the widest spread (30 points) for any match this weekend.  Betting odds also heavily favor Man City.  Is the gap between first and second really this big?  Home field advantage is clearly playing into this but the spread still seems wide.  This one is on Peacock, which means early to rise as you can't DVR it.

The 10 am slot is crowded with five contests.  The TV match is arguably the least interesting of the bunch - Nottingham Forest hosting Brighton.  Our choice is easy as we will be going with Newcastle - Chelsea (arguably best game on Peacock, not USA).  I am astonished at the Opta numbers which slightly favor the Magpies 37/29/34; with Newcastle's injury list I expected Chelsea to be a solid favorite here.  They're banged up a bit too but won't be missing as many key players.  I'll take a draw in a heartbeat.  

Two other choices better than the TV game are Sheffield United - Bournemouth or Luton Town - Crystal Palace.  Both look real close on paper.  Bournemouth, coming off the win over Newcastle, could make a further jump away from the relegation zone.  Last choice would be Burnley - West Ham.

The feature TV game at 12:30 (USA not NBC) doesn't look all that great though it is a London Derby between Brentford and Arsenal.  Maybe in their friendly environs, the Bees will make a contest of it.

I'm looking forward to Sunday's 9 am match between Spurs and Aston Villa (USA).  I had fancied the Villans as a serious challenger here but Opta, at 48/27/25, doesn't think so.  Maybe that's just home field advantage again but I would have expected this to be closer.  At 11 am, also on USA, we have Everton - Man United.  Sure United have been piling up the points but they've been doing so with slim victories over mediocre opposition; still, this is a tough fixture for the Toffees to start digging out from the point deduction.  Monday's 3 pm match on USA - Fulham vs Wolves - is probably worth a look; what else you going to do late on a Monday afternoon.

Don't forget the European competitions have fixtures Tuesday - Thursday.  Newcastle are at PSG Tuesday at 3 pm; a loss there will mean they can't advance to the knockout round and even a draw leaves them in a desperate spot.  Arsenal and Man City are looking pretty good for advancement while Man United are fourth in their group but still in the hunt.  Their match versus Galatasaray (12:30 Wednesday) is pretty much a must win as they have to face Bayern in their last group stage fixture.

In Europa Conference League, Aston Villa can clinch advancement to the knockout stage with a win or draw versus Legia Warszawa (3 pm on Thursday).  In Europa League, Liverpool and West Ham have already locked up spots in the knockout rounds; Brighton could grab a spot as well with a win on Thursday versus AEK Athens.

Not going to be a lot of days off between now and January 2.  Best bet is to schedule meetings for Mondays and Fridays as there are no open Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays until 2024.