The Occasion Is Better Than the Game

Jon Champion applied that description to the Championship Division playoff but it applies as well to the Champions League final.  And to the Union match.  Just not very inspiring football.

Doing a special Memorial Day post, then taking a couple of weeks off timed to coincide with the international break.

No Triple for Liverpool

Courtois - Key to RM victory
Photo: IMAGO/Sportimage/David Klein

Though Liverpool had the run of play in the Champions League final, Real Madrid won where it counted.  Shots were 24-9, shots on target were 9-2, possession was 54-46 and expected goals were 2.45 - .6.  The scoreboard said 1-0 Real Madrid.  A good part of this is explained by another otherworldly performance by Thibaut Courtois.  I remember at least three game saving saves.  

So Liverpool, who were looking at a quad as recently as last Sunday, now have to settle for the EFL League Cup and FA Cup.  Dennis noted they did "all this work for two booby prizes."  It's certainly true that they won the two decidedly least important pieces of the quad.  Ultimately how do they view a season that includes those two cups, second in the EPL by a single point after losing just two matches all year and a Champions League final in which they ran into a hot keeper?  Probably depends on whether you're looking at it from the view last August versus last Sunday.  Hard to say it wasn't an amazing season.

See below for additional thoughts on the offside call and the events outside the stadium.

We Will Be Seeing the Forest

Steve Cooper - The most British looking British
football manager will be managing in EPL 
Photo:Mark Cosgrove/News Images

Hard to believe, but somehow the match for $100+ million in new revenues just didn't have the
intensity we would have expected.  Nottingham Forest prevailed over Huddersfield 1-0 in a match with just two shots on target (none for Huddersfield).  Certainly looked like Forest were the better side.  Huddersfield fans will feel hard done by the no-call on a potential PK late in the match that could have tied it up (more on that below).  Still, it's not like the Terriers stepped up in a big game.  You also have to admire the determination of Nottingham Forest. When Steve Cooper took over in September, Forest had one point from seven matches and sat at the bottom of the table.  There's a great article in The Athletic about the turnaround but unfortunately it's behind a paywall.  As Michael B put it, fun to have new blood in the top tier.  It's been 23 years since NF last played there.

Take the Point and Leave Quickly

Completing the weekend of less than intriguing football, the Union pretty much stole a point up in New England with a 1-1 draw against the Revolution.  They were slightly shorthanded in that Carranza was suspended (yellow card accumulation) and Uhre was not ready to start (recovering from injury).  The makeshift line up generated nothing of interest in a totally moribund first half.  Some half time adjustments perked things up a bit but still felt like they could play all night and not score.  An unfortunate handling call on Elliott (more on that below) gave New England a goal they probably didn't deserve.  That forced Jim Curtin, who had been thinking a 0-0 draw was perfectly acceptable, to put Uhre in.  Incredibly, he scored within a minute on his first touch.  Yeah, it was a terrible give away by New England but we'll still make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  

So while the handling call was incredibly unlucky, you still have to say the Union were incredibly lucky to take a point from this game.  The stats say it well: shots were 5-22, shots on target 2-4, possession 40/60 and xG .8-2.65.  The latter number is padded a little by the PK but the difference is still huge. Take the point and get on the plane. 

Bad Days for Officials

Watched three matches this weekend and all had incidents drawing attention to officials.  And by officials, I don't just mean referees.  UEFA and stadium security at Stade de France have some 'splaining to do and so far they are doing a shitty job.  We'll take them in reverse order of egregiousness.  

Benzema Offside

Late in the first half, Benzema had a goal chalked off by the assistant referee for offside. You can see the play here.  No judgment required to determine whether Benzema is in an offside position when the play is played - he clearly is.  But the ball came to him from Fabinho, not a teammate.  Therefore, we have to decide whether Fabinho deliberately played the ball or did it merely deflect off him.  If the latter, then the touch by Valverde governs and Benzema is offside.  Clearly, Fabinho did not deliberately pass the ball to Benzema.  But that doesn't mean it wasn't a deliberate play on the ball.  For me, this was not offside.  I can find plenty of support for that view.  I can also find plenty of others, including a former pro referee, that say it wasn't deliberate.  I found Peter Walton's explanation unconvincing.  One theory I had, and I saw in another article, was that this was a rare offside call in which the term clear and obvious error applied.  Usually, you draw the lines and it is or isn't offside.  This time it's a judgment as to whether it was a deliberate play.  The ruling on the field was that it wasn't deliberate and the video evidence did not reveal that it was a clear and obvious error.  Works for me but now feel like I want more guidance on what constitutes a deliberate play on the ball.  

Elliott Handling

In the Union match, Jack Elliott was called for handling in the box.  That play can be seen here.  Freemon did not whistle for the foul at the time; VAR told him he should go to the monitor, at which point he changed his mind.  I have two problems here.  First, this is re-refereeing; I don't see a clear and obvious error.  Second, I flat out just don't think it's handling.  A player is moving at full speed and has to brake quickly.  What do you think his arms are going to do?  They are going to move...unless you are Raquel Welch.  

Colback Trip

We go to the Championship Division playoff, in which Jon Moss was refereeing his last game. In the 78th minute with Huddersfield trailing Nottingham Forest 0-1, Harry Toffolo and Jack Colback had an incident in the box.  You can see the play here.  The call on the field was a yellow for simulation.  Whoa!  A quick reminder that it is a foul if a player "trips or attempts to trip" another player.  They did have VAR at this contest but the decision was to let the play stand as called on the field.  Moss didn't even go to the monitor.  Brutal.  Huddersfield went on to lose 0-1.  

Stadium Security

Lastly we have the SNAFU at the Champions League final in Paris, in which thousands of Liverpool fans were kept outside the stadium and many were eventually tear gassed by police.  Before venturing too far into this story, I will suggest that Liverpool fans will not react well to attempts by police or soccer administrative bodies to pin the blame on them for the disruptions.  They have been there before.  And it started again right away this time too.  Initially, we were told that the delay was due to "late arriving Liverpool fans."  That was exposed as a lie fairly quickly but not much more information was forthcoming at the time.

Now the story is that many Liverpool fans were attempting to enter the stadium with fake tickets.   That there was a massive number of fake tickets does appear to be true but that lacks context, probably isn't completely accurate and misses other key aspects of the problem.  First, this wasn't a case of Liverpool fans trying to sneak in with fake tickets but rather fans who thought they had legitimate tickets being denied admission at the gate.  And it appears that some with legitimate tickets were also denied admission.  Were Liverpool supporters climbing the gates to gain entry anyway.?  Possibly, but it appears that the majority doing that were French youth gang members.  Lastly, was tear gassing necessary?  As of today, French authorities are doubling down on putting the blame squarely on Liverpool fans.  Maybe a full investigation will reveal that to be the case but the story to date doesn't seem to support that.  No, it looks more like authorities are making shit up as they go along to deflect blame.  Sorry for the mini rant but this doesn't smell right so far.

Manager Changes - How'd That Work Out For You?

Technically there were 13 in-season managerial changes in the EPL.  Three of them involved replacing interim place holders.  For the purposes of what follows, I'm only looking at what happened after the permanent manager was sacked, so we have 10 situations to assess.  The table below summarizes pre and post sacking performance. 

On a very micro level, performance did improve in 8 of the 10 situations, with Watford (twice) being the exception.  The biggest jump by far was Newcastle under Eddie Howe.  We have discussed how he certainly benefitted from an open check book offered by the new owners but also that Howe deserves credit for making other changes as well.  Conte at Spurs and Jackson at Burnley (but that's just 8 games) were also notable.  What if we look at the bigger picture - did the teams achieve their larger goal (making Champions League, avoiding relegation)?  Those results are more mixed, with only half of the teams hitting their targets.  I was critical of the Conte change but they did make Champions League; we can debate how much of that is Conte but the point is they made it.  Everton and Leeds barely escaped relegation but in this case, how close it was doesn't really matter.  Biggest disappointment probably has to be Man United.  They have much work to do in the off season.

Union Product Makes Good

Brendan Aaronson will be gracing our screens on a regular basis next season as he has completed a transfer to Leeds.  Great for him, great for the Union, who get a nice chunk of the transfer fee.  Given our issues with Leeds, we might have preferred a different EPL side but it is what it is.  BFS Travel Consultant Jeff K sends along this great article about the Aaronsons.

Extended International Break

Frankly, most of the stuff is friendly or pseudo-friendly matches.  There are however, two important World Cup qualifying matches.  Scotland - Ukraine will face off on Wednesday, with the winner to take on Wales on Sunday.  US fans will care about this because the winner of this final spot will be the USMNT's first opponent in the World Cup.  

Speaking of the USMNT, they have four matches in the break.  First, they'll have friendlies with Morocco (6/1) and Uruguay (6/5).  Then they have two CONCACAF Nations League contests against Grenada (6/10) and El Salvador (6/14).  The Nations League is mostly a gimmick to make friendlies look more competitive; teams farther down in the rankings would disagree as this is a chance for them to get to bigger competitions.  We'll probably watch even though not much at stake, just to get a sense of which US players may be in the final roster for the World Cup.  Even then, things could change drastically by November, especially with so many of our players in European leagues now.  

Next Union match is 6/17 versus Cincinnati.  We will take advantage of the lull and take an extended break.  See you in a couple weeks.

Were We Not Entertained?

Is this not why you are here? Yes, Maximus, it is.

Championship Sunday delivered a great 2 hours of drama.  A TV, computer and phone were barely enough to keep up with events.  For most of the hour between noon and 1 pm, one goal either way could have changed the title and relegation races.  

A Lot of Celebration for a Booby Prize

We can thank Aston Villa for much of Sunday's drama.  Recall that Man City had to lose or draw to give Liverpool a chance at the title.  And that Arlo White had suggested that Pep and City might view the EPL title as the booby prize after losing out on Champions League.  Villa kept City scoreless and when Matty Cash scored at 37 minutes, the door was indeed wide open.  It was practically off the hinges when Coutinho made it 0-2 at 69 minutes.  Trouble was, Liverpool wouldn't walk through.  They were stuck in a 1-1 draw against Wolves.  And the door was closing quickly.

This time, City's Usain Bolt-like comeback didn't falter.  They blew past Villa in the space of five minutes, scoring three times between 76, 78 and 81 minutes.  By the time Liverpool could finally grab the lead against Wolves (at 84 mintues), the chance was gone.  Here's the game winner from Gundogan, this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Nice assist from DeBruyne.  The reaction of Pep and City bench - seen here - suggests they do not see the EPL title as a booby prize.

Dennis offered his perspective as an Aston Villa fan and someone who would have also preferred Liverpool take the title:

The worst 20 minutes of football I've had to stomach

After the first one went in, it was scripted that the other two would go in

Philip S notes that Liverpool lost twice all season yet can only finish second.  City are good.  And they are adding Erling Haaland?  Oh FFS.  

The Real Booby Prize

The beginning of the end for Burnley;
 Nathan Collins hand ball in the box

Meanwhile, at the other end of the table, things were almost as dramatic.  Burnley shot themselves in the hand again, picking up another PK for handling in the box.  But Leeds were still locked in a draw with Brentford, so a goal in either match would have swung things back in Burnley's favor.  The Clarets' troubles worsened when Leeds did get a breakthrough at 54 minutes, and when they conceded a second Newcastle goal.  All was not lost, at least not yet.   Burnley started playing better and got one back.  Then Brentford (that would be 10 man Brentford, who lost Kristoffer Ajer to injury after they'd used all their subs) leveled things.  So a goal at either venue would again be enough to save the Clarets.  Alas, the equalizer was not coming at Turf Moor.   In the end, it would have just been heartbreaking anyway because Leeds got the game-winner against Brentford (that would be the 9 man Brentford, who lost Sergio Canos to two yellow cards in two minutes - the first one for taking his shirt off while celebrating a goal).  Leeds escape with 38 points while Burnley join Watford and Norwich in a return to the Championship Division.

Spurs in Champions League 

Son's brace at Norwich 1) helped secure Spurs' CL spot
 and 2) got him share of the Golden Boot with Salah

The chase for the fourth Champions League spot was much tamer.  Tottenham's early attention to business meant we didn't have to spend much energy on that story.  Given that a draw was going to be good enough to secure 4th, the 2-0 lead by 32 minutes against Norwich was about as secure as you could get.  The Canaries averaged .61 goals per game for the campaign and scored more than two goals exactly once all season (on an own goal from 10-man Watford at that).  Spurs added a bunch in the second half to make the final 5-0.  That result rendered Arsenal's 5-1 win over Everton irrelevant.  

Optimism Tyneside?

Not to be overlooked in all the other action, the Magpies win over Burnley meant an 11th place finish.  Respectable in any season, incredible in this one.  They didn't get their first win until December 4th.  They had 7 points through 14 matches and 12 points at 20.  They managed 37 points in the final 18.  Over a 38-match season, that would be 78 points and a Champions League spot. 

Having been severely burned with false hope after the 2018-19 season, I try to measure my enthusiasm.  Recall that Benitez was the manager and there was some hope that Ashley was going to give him a reasonable budget to maybe lift the club back to a top 10 side.  That did not end well, as Ashley felt Benitez wanted too much, Rafa departed and we floundered in EPL purgatory for another three seasons.  Of course, the major difference today is that Ashley no longer owns the club and it's not likely that the new owners paid all that money to watch the club wallow in the bottom third of the league.  No, the bigger fear this time is that they'll over spend on the wrong players and end up like, say, Everton.  

U Get Mojo Back

The Union went to Portland and ended a seemingly interminable streak of draws.  There were two solid finishes from Gazdag and Santos.  Check out this bicycle kick from Gazdag that gave them a quick lead.  The header from Santos was sweet too.  VAR again came to the Union rescue when it looked like Portland had pulled one back in the 69th minute.  I will confess my first thought was we're going to cough up another lead.  Never got an explanation as to why the review took so long but the picture that you can see at the end of this video makes it look like they got it right.  With the two goal margin restored, the final 20+ minutes weren't as nuts as they could've been.

At times, this felt like a dominant Union performance.  At others, not so much.  The stats, especially xG, say it was close.  Had that disallowed goal stood, this could easily have seen another draw.  But, it was clearly a step up from the lackluster showing against Miami at home on Wednesday.  Three road points are always a good thing.

We Had A Spy

CHYSC Alum David R at Portland match-
He's a lumberjack but he's okay

Well, not so much a spy - he was sitting out there in the open with other Union fans.  But there was a CHYSC alum in the stands in Portland - David R, son of BFS Keeper Consultant Graham R.  We know this because we have grainy footage (grainy footage of bearded creatures from the Northwest - where have I heard that before?) as the FS1 camera briefly panned across the Union cheering section at the game's end. That's David in the yellow with the full beard, looking very much like he'd be the guy with the chain saw cutting off the slice of wood when Portland score.  Graham says that is a retro Union jersey, a Christmas present from some years ago.

Quieter Weekends

We are looking at decidedly slow weekends ahead, though I won't miss the 7:30 am Saturday matches too much.  This weekend there are two unfinished pieces to the 2021-22 season.  

The first is a cracker of a Champions League final between Liverpool and Real Madrid.  That'll be 3:00 on Saturday on CBS. Pretty good write up about the match here.

Sunday features the Most Lucrative Match of in Football -  the Championship Division playoff final to determine the third team that will be promoted to the Premier League.  We call it the most lucrative match because winning this single match is estimated to be worth £85-95 million in additional revenues each year. This year's contest is between Nottingham Forest and Huddersfield.  You can catch it at 11:30 Sunday on ESPN+

And the Union will be on the road again, this time to one of our least favorite venues, Gillette Stadium in Foxborough MA.  So far, this has not been the New England side that ripped through the Eastern Conference last year.  However, they can be a handful at home.  The Union may benefit from not having a second game this week as they bowed out of the US Open Cup a few weeks ago with a loss to Orlando. 

 

So You're Telling Me There's A Chance

The title race is not done after West Ham barely hold on to draw Man City 2-2 and Liverpool scrape out a win 2-1 win at Southampton.  Meanwhile, the Magpies are a key part of yet another turnaround in the race for the final Champions League spot.  On this side of the pond, the Union cough up another lead and this time it's not as forgivable.  

Ich Bin Ein Magpie

Wilson's goal was later ruled an own goal and
 he lost a tooth to an Arsenal elbow; at least they got the W

I was feeling the love from Tottenham and Chelsea fans as Newcastle took on Arsenal at home.  Historians know that this is an awful fixture for the Magpies so despite all the support, expectations were very low.  All the more pleasant a surprise when Newcastle took hold of this match from the opening whistle and basically never let go.  They were clearly the better side in a 0-0 first half.  The fact that they played well but had nothing to show for it led Dennis to note with concern that it had the feel of a "dominant 1-0 loss."  Newcastle got the breakthrough goal after a cross from Bruno G got put into the net by a sliding Ben White.  Yeah, it was an own goal but it was 1) nothing less than Newcastle deserved and 2) a dangerous cross that Callum Wilson would have likely put in anyway.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Good to see that Newcastle did not let up, though it took until the 85th minute for Bruno G to salt the match away.

What a performance to demonstrate the total turnaround Newcastle experienced this year.  Even if they had lost on Monday, that was still really good football to watch.  Eddie Howe got one of the five nominations for manager of the year (Klopp, Guardiola, Viera [Palace] and Frank [Brentford] are the others).  No doubt he benefitted from some January acquisitions (cough, cough Bruno G), but much of the improvement comes down to getting way more out of players like Joe L. Linton, Ryan Fraser and Almiron,  Even in case of Bruno, Howe deserves credit for patiently working him into the line up rather than immediately throwing him to the Wolves, Foxes, Bees, Hornets and the like. 

As for the implications for Arsenal, see Flipped Again below.

This Ain't Ovah

Thanks to this save from Fabianski, the title race is still alive

Man City could have clinched the title with a win at West Ham on Sunday.  The Hammers got a
different script and went up 2-0 by half time.  Still, you figured this would be like Usain Bolt getting the baton five meters behind in the anchor leg of a 4 x 100.  Sure enough, Grealish got one right away.  By 69 minutes, the match was level.  West Ham were still playing tough but when they were called for PK in the 86th minute, the effort looked like it would be for naught.  Except Fabianski made an excellent save on Mahrez and West Ham walked away with the 2-2 draw.  City didn't exactly "drop the baton" but this was not what we expected.  

Liverpool struggled but eventually took advantage of City's stumble with a hard-fought 2-1 win over Southampton on Tuesday.  They fell behind early and didn't put in the game winner until the 69th minute, a kind of "how did he do that" header from Joel Matip.  

So heading into the final weekend, Man City have a one point lead and a better goal differential by six.  In theory, Liverpool could capture the title with a draw against Wolves and a six goal loss by City to Aston Villa - wait, that would also require that Liverpool score six more goals than City as well.  Right, not going to happen.  No, the more "realistic" scenario is Villa beat City and Liverpool beat Wolves.  So, the door is clearly not wide open but neither did it get slammed shut.  Lloyd Christmas has this about right.  At 538, they think it's a little closer - 82% Man City versus 18% Liverpool.  That sounds optimistic about the Reds' chances to me.

Relegation Battle

All three candidates played exceedingly tough.  Everton played tough and stupid.  Burnley gave Spurs fits but lost 0-1 on a handling call in the box by Harvey Barnes.  Leeds fell behind early on a Danny Welbeck goal but grabbed a precious point on a stoppage time goal by Struijk.  Everton played a wild match at Goodison Park, finishing with just nine players and losing 2-3 to Brentford.  Up 1-0 early, the Toffees had defender Branthewaite sent off at just 18 minutes for DOGSO.  Seamus Coleman gave up an own goal (not his fault) but surprisingly, Everton took a 2-1 lead into the lockerroom on stoppage time PK.  Two goals in quick succession by Brentford put Everton into a hole they couldn't climb out of.  Any hope of late rally was cut short when subsitute Rondon got a straight red in the 88th minute.

After the weekend, new odds were Everton 9%, Burnley 35% and Leeds 56%.  Last week they were 6/29/65.  They didn't change all that much because Burnley weren't expected to get much against Spurs, while Leeds had a good chance of getting a point.  

Then we had two matches on Thursday - Everton v Crystal Palace and Aston Villa v Burnley.  Everton dug themselves a huge 0-2 but came back with three, including the game winner from Dominic Calvert Lewin at 85 minutes.  Everton fans added to their list of shithousery with a premature pitch invasion after that goal - details here, including some videos.  I get it; you looked like you were headed for relegation but at least wait until the end of the match to storm the field, which, of course, they did as well.  Meanwhile, Burnley were fighting hard again and gave Aston Villa a good match.  The 1-1 final is probably a fair result.  This was a wide-open, entertaining match as Villa were clearly not ready to put on the flip-flops and Burnley were fighting for their Premier League lives.

With those results, were down to just Burnley and Leeds.  They are level on points with 35 but the Clarets' goal differential is a massive 20 goals better than Leeds.  Advantage Burnley, who "simply" have to match whatever result Leeds get on Sunday.  Burnley are home against Newcastle while Leeds travel to Brentford.  At 538, they have Burnley at 24% chance of relegation, Leeds at 76%.

Flipped Again

As noted above, Spurs got all three points against Burnley while Arsenal dropped all three points at Newcastle.  The results turned a one point deficit into a two point lead for Tottenham.  So, the Gunners ceded the advantage back to Spurs in a race that was theirs to lose.  Tottenham play on the road at Norwich while Arsenal host Everton.  That latter match may not be as scary since the Toffees are now safe.  But it also probably doesn't matter.  Even a draw will be enough to Spurs to secure the spot given their huge goal differential advantage.  Surely, Tottenham will not lose at Norwich.  Probably not.  And please don't call me Shirley.  Odds at 538 are 96% for Spurs, 4% for Arsenal.

Liverpool Still Believe in Quad

Somewhere back there this weekend, Liverpool and Chelsea played to another 0-0 draw in a cup final, this time the FA Cup.  Just like in the League Cup, the matter was settled by kicks-from-the-spot.  This time it only required six rounds instead of 11.  Actually, it wasn't an awful watch for a 0-0 draw but how many times are Chelsea and Liverpool going to do this dance?  For Liverpool, they are halfway to the Quad.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve:  Well, Aston Villa sure have the run of play so far against Burnley

Dennis: Meh, Villa are middle management in this game - bossing everything but don't actually have any worthwhile ideas

Father's Day Hint for Jim Curtin - Don't Get Him a Tie

With draws on Saturday and Wednesday, they now have five straight ties.  Saturday's was bad as they coughed up a lead for the fourth straight match.  The previous two had been mostly acceptable as they were on the road against solid opponents (Nashville and LAFC).  The Red Bulls are improving but at home, up a man, losing a 1-0 lead is not good.  First half, hopeful direct balls that usually ended up in the keeper's hands.  Quick strike early in second half with a nifty give and go involving Gazdag and Santos.  Then RB red card.  Some early chances not converted.  Then the give away.  They had appeared to retake the lead but Carranza was correctly ruled offside.

Santos looks outmanned here; he is having trouble scoring

On Wednesday against Inter Miami, they didn't cough up the lead because they never had one.  The U pretty clearly had the better chances but simply could not find the back of the net.  A 0-0 draw at home to one of the weaker sides in the East was not good.  We will put an asterisk next to this one.  Both Carranza (loanees can't play against their parent club) and Uhre (still injured) were missing.  The team needs those three to convert the chances they are getting.  

Championship Sunday

As is usual, all matches will start at the same time on Sunday.  As of this writing, I didn't see TV listings.  Six matches matter:

Arsenal - Everton 

Brentford - Leeds

Burnley - Newcastle

Liverpool - Wolves

Man City - Aston Villa

Norwich - Tottenham

We'll focus on the Newcastle match but will probably have additional devices following Brentford Leeds and maybe Norwich-Tottenham.

The Union have a late Sunday night (10pm) at Portland.  Not the best place to break a winless streak.

Fates Were Sealed

Many teams saw their situations resolved - for better or worse.  The Union get another decent road draw.  

Don't Have To Worry About That Anymore

Newcastle are now mathematically safe from relegation.  So are Leicester, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa and Brentford.  Watford, on the other hand, are officially headed back to the Championship Division.

Man United are out of contention for the Champions League after a 0-4 loss to Brighton.  Though you wouldn't think it possible, that final score actually flatters United.  It also brings back my favorite talking point.  Only three teams - Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea - have fewer losses than Brighton.

Arsenal holding midfielder Holding called for holding:
his two yellows opened the door for Spurs romp

One fate that was not sealed was the 4th Champions League spot.  Tottenham got a big 3-0 at home versus Arsenal to keep their hopes for that last spot alive.  Already down 0-1, Rob Holding made Arsenal's task much harder by getting a second yellow.  He was a busy man, getting his first yellow at 26 minutes for persistent infringement, then earning a second at 33 minutes with an elbow to Son that could easily have been a straight red.  Kane made it 2-0 shortly thereafter and Son added a third early in the second half. 

The win means that Tottenham are just one point out of 4th, with a better goal differential.  The odds now have Arsenal at 54% and Spurs at 47%.  The Gunners have to travel to Newcastle then have Everton at home.  Tottenham host Burnley, then travel to Norwich.  On paper that looks like four wins but a draw by Arsenal in either of their contests would open the door for Spurs.

 

A Long Par Four

Newcastle playing Man City is the equivalent of me playing a 420 yard par 4.  I could play the hole reasonably well and still get a 6.  I said this to Dennis with the score 3-0 for City in the 89th minute.  The Magpies then yielded two more before the final whistle.  I texted Dennis that if that hole comes at the end of a round where I'm already not scoring well, it doesn't take much to turn it into an 8. Nothing more need be said of this match.

How Do You Say Fu...dge in Flemish?

On Saturday I started with Aston Villa - Burnley for the 10 am match.  In theory, this was supposed to be close.  Villa had other ideas, coming out on the front foot and never letting up.  Ings got one at 7 minutes, Buendia added another at 30.  When Watkins made it 3-0 at 52 minutes, it was time to switch.

Not a happy man: Lukaku after Wolves level the match 

I tuned into Chelsea - Wolves just as Lukaku was converting a PK to put the Blues up 1-0.  Two minutes later, he doubled the lead.  Good stuff in a rare recent start for the Belgian.  Wolves started to put more pressure on Chelsea and got one back from Trincao at 79 minutes.  But when Lukaku departed for Havertz at 90+1, Chelsea were still up 2-1.  He watched from the sidelines as Conor Coady headed in the equalizer at 90+7.  The camera got his face - we didn't see any expletives but his expression said "all that good work down the drain."  The upshot of the dropped points is that Chelsea still need a point from either the Leicester or Watford matches to seal a Champions League spot.  Doesn't sound difficult but...

Toffees Looking Safer

I had settled on Arsenal - Leeds for the Sunday 9 am choice.  Except the Gunners quickly went up 2-0 so I switched over to Leicester - Everton.  Seeing a red card go up on the screen for Leeds confirmed the wisdom of that move.  Surprisingly, Arsenal did not add to their lead and actually surrendered a goal for a 2-1 final.  I guess Arsenal were trying to walk it in.  

Dennis had been texted me updates on the Leicester - Everton match and it sounded like a good one - three goals in 30 minutes.  Not so much scoring after I tuned in but Pickford was putting on a good show in goal.  Player of the Match worthy in fact.  He kept the score at 2-1 as Everton picked up a big, and somewhat unexpected,  three points.

Midweek, Everton may did not distinguish themselves with a 0-0 draw at Watford but it was another point.  Meanwhile, Leeds were digging another hole, this time at home against Chelsea.  First, they fell behind quickly, then saw Daniel James sent off for one of the nastier challenges you'll see this year.  The Blues took a while to put the advantage to good use but that final ended 3-0. 

Burnley did get a goal back late against Aston Villa but the 3-1 loss was a big setback, dropping their expected points down to 37, making them the favorite for relegation.  That is, until Leeds did the double against Arsenal and Chelsea, putting them back in the driver's seat for the third relegation spot.  Odds after Thursday's matches have Everton at 9%, Burnley at 29% and Leeds at 65%..

Booby Prize?

Dennis asked if Liverpool would trade the league title for the League Cup, FA Cup and Champions League Title.  My first answer was they would take the Champions League title over the EPL title.  But then I thought that might have been a case of where you stand depends on where you sit.  With the league title almost out of reach now, Champions League sounds pretty good.  No, the real question is at the beginning of the season, would you choose the league title or the Champions League title?  Which is harder to win?  Which is more prestigious?  Answering yes to the first question might mean the second is also yes. I probably still choose the Champions League but it's not obvious. 

Coincidentally, as Man City were dismantling Newcastle, Arlo White seemed to suggest that Pep Guardiola will view the league title as the Booby Prize.  As in, he'd make the trade in a heart beat.

Booby prize or no, the title is almost in City's hands.  They followed the 5-0 win over Newcastle with a 5-1 win over Wolves on Wednesday.  Liverpool played Tottenham to a 1-1 draw on Saturday, then bested Villa 2-1 on Tuesday.  Son got the Player of the Match on Saturday but I thought it was the collective defense of Spurs that deserved the award.  They didn't park the bus, just seemed to block the Reds attempts at every turn; the final stat was 13 blocked shots out of 22 taken.  On Tuesday, Villa drew first blood but the advantage was quickly wiped out.  Sadio Mane' got the game winner at 65 minutes.  Dennis put it aptly - "close but inevitable."

The title odds are now Man City 93% to Liverpool 7%.  Might not even come down to the final weekend.

Some Day, Everybody's Gonna Hate My Team

Chelsea look to be on track to get new ownership soon.  A few details here.  What really caught my eye though was the range of net worth from bottom to top in the EPL.

As you can see, I had a scaling problems the spread is so great.  Now, net worth of ownership doesn't guarantee it will be spent on the team and there are financial fair play regulations that limit spending.  But, I can foresee a time down the road when people will be contemptuous of Newcastle's spending habits.  Sigh, I'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

Definitely Lucky This Time

Carranza-Gazdag becoming an efficient scoring duo

The Union got a second straight away draw against a formidable opponent, this time 2-2 with LAFC. However, unlike last week's tie with Nashville, this one felt lucky.  And that's even taking into account that LA came back from one goal deficits.  The Union were clinical in their finishing and they had to be given they only got two shots on target.  Check out the finish from Carranza on the second goal, this weeks  YouTubeableMoment.  The stats suggest LA had the better of it - 67% possession, shots were 22-9, shots on goal were 6-2.  The expected goals based on shots was close but taking into account non-shot based xG, the difference was 2.00-1.25.  All that being said, this was still an excellent result from a tough match.

FA Cup Final Weekend

Looks like maybe they're trying to make a bigger deal out of the FA Cup Final as it is the only match scheduled for Saturday.  On the other hand, the only place you can watch it is ESPN+, so does that really make a difference?  In any case, Chelsea and Liverpool will face off Saturday at 11:45.  

The final also shortens the weekend schedule a bit, though some mid-week contests will fill in the holes.  Surprisingly, even with many things getting sorted out this week, there are still many games with something riding on them.

On the relegation front we have:

Tottenham - Burnley (Sunday at 7 on USA)

Leeds - Brighton (Sunday at 9 am on Peacock)

Everton - Brentford (Sunday at 11:30 am on USA)

Everton - Crystal Palace (Thursday at 2:45 on USA)

Aston Villa - Burnley (Thursday at 3 pm on Peacock)

For the title race there is:

West Ham - Man City (Sunday at 9 on USA)

Southampton - Liverpool (Tuesday at 2:45 on USA)

For the Champions League check out:

Tottenham - Burnley (Sunday at 7 on USA)

Newcastle - Arsenal (Monday at 3 on USA)

Chelsea - Leicester (Thursday at 3 on Peacock)

Technically, Wolves could still be playing for a spot in Europa competition so we'll add their match with Norwich on Sunday at 9 on Peacock.

We'll be at Subaru Park Saturday at 7:30 as the Union take on the Harrison Pink Cows, more formally known as the NY Red Bulls. Recall the last time they were here when Glesnes provided the YouTubeableMoment of the Year.  This will probably not be a pretty match.

Hoo Rah

Union's big off-season acquisition Mikael Uhre gets his first goal at an opportune time.  Newcastle lose but it's not terrible.  Both Champions League semi-final second legs end up being interesting.  Did you catch me on ESPN2 at the Penn Relays? I was the official in the khaki pants, navy blue blazer, white shirt, red tie and red hat.

Ho Hum

Naby Keita's shot at 19 minutes was all Liverpool needed

Not much to say about Newcastle's 0-1 loss to Liverpool.  The Magpies weren't awful but there was no doubt which was the better side.   Was never expecting a result here and I prefer Liverpool win the league title.  Nice to not be sweating about the dropped points.  I know they are not mathematically safe from relegation but I've been told I'm not allowed to talk about that.

New Relegation "Favorite"

Michael B noted that in no other sport would Watford - Burnley have been a compelling match.  The Hornets, sitting in 19th with 22 points, were running out of time while 17th place Burnley were on a roll but still just two above the drop zone.  Watford "scored" early courtesy of an own goal from Tarkowski.  Burnley had the better of things but still trailed late.  In rapid succession, Jack Cork headed one in from close range and minutes later Josh Brownhill put the Clarets up on a shot from the top of the box.  Though not as exciting as if they had done it had home, the reaction was still pretty good as seen here.  Burnley now have 10 points out of last 12 possible while Watford's tragic number is now one - they have to win every match and hope for help elsewhere.

Later in the day, Leeds fell as expected to Man City, 0-4.  Though the loss probably didn't seem too damaging at the time, things got worse as the weekend progressed.  First they found out that fullback-midfielder Stuart Dallas broke his leg in the match and is probably gone for the season.  Then Everton upset Chelsea 1-0, grabbing three unexpected points that leave the Toffees just two points back with a game in hand.  

Aston Villa ended Norwich's one-year run in the Premiership with a 2-0 win at home.  The stats (except xG) say this was close and it looked that way to me.  Villa only added the second goal in second half stoppage time.  A draw wouldn't have helped them much anyway but Ings' goal in the 93rd minute sealed the Canaries fate.

So the new numbers at 538 have Burnley at 21%, Everton at 34% and Leeds at 45%.  But note that they have Burnley and Everton finishing with 38 and Leeds with 37, meaning one upset or stumble will change the order again.  Burnley have Aston Villa (twice), Tottenham and Newcastle left.  Everton have Leicester, Watford, Brentford, Crystal Palace and Arsenal.  Leeds still face Arsenal, Chelsea, Brighton and Brentford.  

Meanwhile, On the Other Side of Town...

Little changed at the top as all top six sides - except Chelsea - won.  That bumped the odds up for those in the preferred slots (Man City and Arsenal), though not by much, mostly because there is now one fewer game to play.  In theory, Chelsea are at risk of losing a Champions League spot to Arsenal and Tottenham.  Then you look at their final matches - Wolves, Leeds, Leicester, and Watford - and realize it's just not going to happen.

This Week in Fan S**thousery

We have two nominees to consider.  First, let's look at the fine work of relegation-stressed Everton fans, who set off a fireworks display outside the hotel where the visiting Chelsea players were staying.  Accounts vary on the starting time (1:30 am? 2:40am?) and length of the display (30 minutes? 90 minutes?).  Just a friendly gesture I'm sure.  Besides, every athlete knows that the critical night for sleep is actually two days before the competition.  Story and video here.

Leeds fans were non-partisan; they pelted their own players too

Though perhaps not as disruptive, the performance of Leeds fans merits discussion just for its sheer stupidity. There was some huge paper mural as part of a pre-game rally and the fans spent the rest of the day tossing wadded up pieces of it onto the pitch.  Sure, it's not in same league as throwing bottles and cans but it was certainly disruptive, as play had to be stopped several times to clear the pitch.  And sure, nobody got hurt.   The best part?  They threw at their own players too.  Call me old school but if you throw shit on the field you deserve to be ejected.  I saw some Leeds fans getting all upset about being criticized for their behavior.  Things like, "they want to punish a five year-old for throwing paper."  If you saw the volume of paper on the field you can only conclude that the entire Leeds fan base is made up of five year-olds.  This is not the BFS has written about the less savory aspects of the Leeds fans.    

I Don't Believe What I Just Saw (apologies to Jack Buck)

Tuesday's Champions League semi-final was crazy enough, with Villareal coming from two goals back to draw level with Liverpool before the Reds woke up in the second half with three of their own to take the tie 5-2 on aggregate.  Wednesday's was simply nuts.  Recall that Man City came to Spain with a 4-3 lead over Real Madrid after the first leg.  The match was tense simply because one goal for Real Madrid would even things up.  But it was Man City who scored first on an awesome shot from the right hand side by Mahrez at 73 minutes.  Surely that would be enough for Man City to advance.  Not so fast.  And please don't call me Shirley.

Rather than relate the events, go to the video first, this week's YouTubeableMoments.  Staggering. Goals at 90 and 91 minutes to send the match into extra time.  I realize Rodygo's goals are not the game winners but Benzema's PK at 95 minutes was practically anticlimactic. It's not totally surprising that Real Madrid came out the winners here.  But not from two goals down in the 90th minute.  Aside from the late goals, check out the performance from Courtois; the two saves on Grealish kept the deficit at two.  I'm told by BFS La Liga Expert Michael B that Real Madrid are famous for this kind of sh... stuff.

Liverpool and Real Madrid will meet at the Stade de France in Paris on Saturday, May 28th.  

Lucky/Not Lucky

We had every reason to expect a tough contest in the first match ever held at Geodis Park, the new home of Nashville SC.  In the first half, the hosts had a couple off rattle off the woodwork and were denied at least four times by Andre Blake, including this incredible stop.  Good to get to half time level.  The first goal in the new stadium would come from the Union's Mikael Uhre, who did some nice individual work in the box after receiving a long ball from Gazdag.  Check out the play here; it would have been the YouTubeableMoment but for Rodrygo's nutsery on Wednesday.

Might not see a better save than this all year

Nashville were lively enough that an equalizer was certainly possible.  Unfortunate that it came on a PK after Martinez was called for handling.  Arm up and away from the body always gives the referee the chance to whistle for the PK; I thought it was a tough call but certainly not outrageous.  The Union would dodge a bullet in stoppage time when ball and Cory Burke's arm came in contact in the penalty area.  This was close enough that the referee went to the monitor; at that point I was sure he signal for another PK.  To our relief, he did not.  Proper use of VAR in my view.  The final was 1-1.

So we have quite a mixed bag. Certainly Nashville were denied their chances in the first half, either by Blake or the woodwork.  The Union did have good attacking presence.  Nashville had more possession and shots but shots on target were basically even.  So was xG, after taking into account the PK, meaning in open play, they matched Nashville nicely.  At 538, non-shot based xG was also even.  The handling call on Martinez was a touch unlucky.  The no-call on Burke could have gone either way.  I'm going with the view that a draw was a fair result here.  

Still Much to Play For

Arguably every one of this week's matches matter for the league title, Champions League, Europa League or relegation.  Let's start with the relegation end.  Leeds clearly have the toughest assignment, taking on Arsenal away (Sunday 9 on Peacock).  Everton and Burnley have similar opponents in Leicester and Aston Villa.  Burnley will be at home (Saturday at 10 on Peacock) while Everton are away (Sunday at 9 on USA).  Who knows what to expect from Leicester and Aston Villa.  My guess is that Aston Villa will not want to wake up Sunday with Burnley just three points in the rear view mirror so they should come out interested.  Leicester are like Newcastle - not mathematically safe yet - so we shouldn't assume they'll be in flip-flops either.  Technically, Crystal Palace - Watford (Saturday at 10 on Peacock) has some importance as the Hornets are not officially dead yet.

In the title race, Man City host Newcastle (Sunday at 11:30 on USA) while Liverpool take on Spurs at Anfield (a special Saturday 2:45 start on USA).  I would argue that one of these is a lot easier than the other but at 538 they have both Liverpool and City as heavy favorites.  I would expect Tottenham to give Liverpool a go.

In the race for the fourth Champions League spot, I'd argue that Arsenal (vs Leeds) have an easier assignment than Spurs (at Liverpool).  But things haven't played out as predicted a lot this year so who knows.

The battle for the Europa stuff is still on.  Man United have a tough match at Brighton (feature match on Saturday at 12:30 on NBC); 538 has the Seagulls as a very slight favorite, with a draw being a real possibility.  Chelsea will host Wolves (Saturday at 10 on USA); 538 has Wolves with only a slight chance at a top seven finish and playing Chelsea won't be any help.  Not helpful either is the club they're chasing, West Ham, playing Norwich (Sunday at 9 on Peacock).

That leaves us with Brentford - Southampton (Saturday at 10 on Peacock).  At 40 points each, both are probably safe but not quite over the finish line.  I'll be going with Burnley - Aston Villa for the Saturday 10 group and probably Arsenal - Leeds for the Sunday at 9 group.

Six midweek contests to take in as well, with five of six quite important.  The title contenders are both in action.  Liverpool go to Aston Villa on Tuesday at 3 while Man City face Wolves on the road Wednesday at 3:15.  These look of similar difficulty.  Definitely favorites but not pushover opponents.

Game of the week is definitely Tottenham - Arsenal on Thursday at 2:45 on USA.  A loss - and probably a draw - pretty much ends Spurs' pursuit of Champions League this year.  They are a slight favorite at 538 but this could easily end in a draw.  

Burnley aren't active but Leeds have another tough one in Chelsea (Wednesday) while Everton may have a good chance against Watford (also Wednesday).  You may be excused if you want to pass on Leicester - Norwich.

Would be cool if Uhre can repeat this in LA

The Union have a very tough match against the league's top team so far - LAFC.  That one is out in California so you have to stay up late to catch it live.  The Union are a big underdog for this one; coming home with a draw would be an excellent result.