Two more wins from Newcastle drop their relegation odds at 538 to under 1%.  The Union take their first loss. 

Is it sacrilegious to say that Newcastle completed their rise from the dead on Easter Sunday? Probably but that's what happened.  They had played Leicester basically even and were hanging on to a 1-1 draw.  Late in stoppage time, Matt Targett bodied away the Leicester attacker deep in the Newcastle end and sent a great outlet pass to Joe Willock.  Willock made a nice move to ghost past the Leicester defender into open space down the left wing.  All I was thinking was this is great as we can run the clock out and take our one point.  But Willock kept going to the byline before sending a cross into the box.  The pass was deflected slightly, enough for Guimaraes to make a beautiful diving header to steal all three points.  Pandamonium!  An easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Actually it's only Part I; for Part II, we need to see how it looked to the Toon Army in the stands.  You can see that here,

As with Wolves last week, the three points were awesome, but there were other takeaways even without the win.  Biggest for me is that surrendering the first goal no longer means the match is over.  In the "old" days, once the seal was broken, there was no hope of recovery.  There was no let down after Lookman's goal at 19 minutes and Newcastle had the equalizer within 11 minutes.  I thought the game seemed pretty even from there, though 538 says Newcastle had the better chances.  I was also heartened by Krafth's performance at right back as he has stepped up in Trippier's absence.  The whole back line had another solid day.  Would have been happy with a draw, loved the win.

Miggie's Rehab Continues

Good to have Miggie back on the scoresheet

Ryan Fraser's re-emergence was a key part of the Magpie renaissance.  His hamstring injury has proven to be a chance for another player's redemption.  Miguel Almiron was the forgotten man until Fraser went down.  There was much talk that he would be one of the first departures in the summer.  His first games back were not perfect but his work rate was unquestioned and he was contributing.  Wednesday he took it step further with the game winning (and only) goal in Newcastle's 1-0 triumph over Crystal Palace.  In a match lacking in quality finishing, his strike was truly the difference between a draw and a win.  So, we add a YouTubeableMoment Part III.  Fights off the defender, settles the ball, places the shot perfectly with his left foot.  Note that Guimaraes made the outlet pass.  

Six points where two was the more likely outcome.  Newcastle are not mathematically safe yet but at 40 points, things look good.  Only three times in EPL history has 40 not been enough.

PTSD - Punchless Tottenham Spurs Disorder

Once again I suggested the CL chase pack looked set for a relatively easy weekend.  Once again I was wrong.  Spurs and Arsenal lost.  West Ham drew at home with Burnley.  Man United did manage to beat Norwich but only after coughing up a two goal lead. 

One stat stands out in Tottenham's 0-1 loss to Brighton - zero (0) shots on goal.  They only had five shots total.  You may have read that Spur's have 10 own goals this year, making OG their third leading scorer.  So maybe it's not completely accurate to say you can't score without a shot on goal.  But sometimes you gotta help out a little bit.  The blow was softened a bit when Arsenal also fell, losing 0-1 to Southampton.

Any momentum from Man United's narrow win on Saturday was lost by Tuesday as they were crushed 4-0 by Liverpool. The Red Devils had two shots, just one on goal and an xG of .3 xG.   They lost their two contests with Liverpool this season by a combined 0-9.  

Arsenal did come back with solid 4-2 win over Chelsea on Wednesday.  

So Tottenham and Arsenal now have identical 18-3-11 records but Spurs goal differential is +18 while the Gunners are at +10.  Despite that differential, 538 has Arsenal with a 50% chance at the fourth spot and Spurs at 48%. 

Burnley Roll the Dyche

We hope to see Sean Dyche get another gig soon

With eight matches left in the season,  Burnley sacked long-time manager Sean Dyche.  Put us in the camp of "how does that make sense?"  Especially as it appears no successor was lined up.  Mike Jackson, their U23 manager currently has the reins.  There is much discussion about the "new manager bounce" and some data shows that there can be an uptick in performance.  But how often is that attributable to the manager or how long is it sustained?  In the case of Burnley, they probably don't care as long they get better for eight games and avoid relegation.  Ownership will happily point to three points in two games so far since the sacking.

We confess to admiring his work.  He had less money to spend than just about anybody but kept Burnley in the top division, even qualifying for Europe one year.  Besides, how can they sack the guy who did the best manager interview evah?  Tell it like it is, Sean.

Quad Is Not Dead

Liverpool and Chelsea advanced to the FA Cup finals with wins over the weekend.  For Liverpool, this means they are still in the hunt for the "quad."  They've already won the League Cup, have advanced to the semis in Champions League and trail Man City by just point for the EPL title.

The 3-2 final between Liverpool and Man City doesn't really tell the story.  Liverpool jumped on City early, who frankly looked like they still had a hangover from their Champions League tussle with Atletico.  Up 3-0 at half, it seemed like even more of rout than that.  Grealish got one back for City early n the second half and it was a closer contest.  But City's second came in stoppage so it wasn't as tight as the final suggests.  I'd say Chelsea were in control but did not blow Crystal Palace away in their 2-0 win.  

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did you say Guardiola is an atheist?

Steve: No, I said his interest in Erling Haaland shows that he doesn't really believe in Jesus.

Some Days the VAR Eats You

The Union have benefitted from some VAR decisions this year but Saturday was not one of them.  One we can have no complaint about.  With the score tied 1-1 late in the first half, the U looked to have regained the lead.  I admit the goal looked suspect live.  Carranza (I think) was in an offside position and did not affect the play per se.  However, it was hard to argue that he didn't obstruct keeper Bono's vision.  The second decision, or non-decision really, was not to upgrade Jayden Nelson's challenge on Kai Wagner from yellow to red.  You can see the play here.  Certainly checks off a number of boxes for a red card but the referee did not go to the monitor to review.  That the league handed Nelson a one-game suspension after the match suggests that the refereeing crew did not get this right.  

Carranza heads in a nice cross from Uhre for Union's only goal

However, as is our practice, we will not pin the 2-1 loss on the referee's.  No, we will look to the reluctance of Union defenders to shut down Toronto as the root cause here.  On the game winner, I counted four players that might have been able to close down Pozuelo.  Two different sources (MLS and 538) show a massive advantage to the Union on xG; MLS has it 2 - .4 and 538 says 1.8 - .6.  That suggests 1) that the U are still not taking advantage of their scoring opportunities 2) that the Toronto goals came from unlikely situations.  There is, I suppose, the possibility that they were outstanding shots but still feel like the issue was the Union not closing down quickly enough.

Even with the loss, the U still lead by two with a game in hand over Orlando. 

Another Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis:  Did you say Toronto have The Edge over the Union in goal?

Steve: No, I said Bono is the Toronto keeper

Eight Days A Week (apologies to The Beatles)

Football every day this week.  And, given the title race, the chase for Champions League and the relegation battle, just about every fixture has significance.

And we get right into it Saturday with a 7:30 clash between Arsenal and Man United on USA.  This is likely the last gasp for the Red Devils; a loss, or probably even a draw, is going to leave them with too much to make up.  The Gunners found their mojo against Chelsea and are clearly in the running for the fourth Champions League spot.

My 10 am choice is settled with Newcastle traveling to Norwich. Not that long ago, this loomed as a must win fixture for the Magpies; now it's more about the numbers - working towards making it mathematically impossible for Newcastle to go down.  Probably only friends and family of those two sides will choose this one.  You could watch Man City on USA look to hold onto first as they take on Watford, whose relegation fate is just about sealed at this point.  The third option, which might be the most fun for the neutrals is Leicester - Aston Villa on CNBC, the exception to my opening statement. Nothing on the line here and both teams are probably more interested in just playing some good football.

We have a NBC feature match at 12:30 between Brentford and Tottenham.  The Bees have done well in their first season back in the EPL and Spurs will need to do better than they did against Brighton or face more dropped points.

Three 9 am matches Sunday morning.  Those with focus on the relegation battle should go with Burnley - Wolves (Peacock); the Clarets are actually slight favorites and have a chance to escape the bottom three with a win or draw combined with an Everton loss.  Chelsea - West Ham (USA) isn't a bad choice either; West Ham are likely out of Champions League contention but still have a chance for Europe.  Your third choice is the other match with little at stake - Brighton - Southampton on Peacock.  Speaking of Everton, there is a Merseyside derby at 11:30 (USA) which looks like a derby in name only; Liverpool are big favorites and will likely need a win to stay a point behind Man City.  On the other hand, Everton could easily find themselves in the relegation zone by day's end.

The match week concludes with an interesting clash with Leeds traveling to Selhurst park to take on  Crystal Palace.  Leeds are probably safe but shouldn't be putting on the flip-flops just yet so look for them to put on a good show.  

Only one midweek EPL contest but it's a good one - Man United hosting Chelsea on Thursday at 2:45 on USA.

Don't despair about what to watch during the week though as we have the first legs of the Champions League semi-finals.  Tuesday is Man City hosting Real Madrid and Wednesday is Liverpool - Villareal.  At 538, the EPL sides are serious favorites but these first legs aren't just about winning - the margin is also critical.  As in 1-0 home wins leave you in a dangerous position for the second leg.

Saturday we'll be back at Subaru Park for the first time since the opener as the Union take on Montreal.  We'll be looking for some better D and maybe some finishing.

Yikes, all this plus Penn Relays next week.