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WC qualifying wraps up, FA Cup Quarters and random league matches.

The CONCACAF WC qualifying process concluded this week with the last three matches of the Octagonal.  For the US, it was a play in three acts that ended with them punching a ticket to Qatar. 

Act I - Should Have Been Dos A Cero

Estadio Azteca has never been a friendly place for the USMNT; usually they leave with their tails between their legs or wondering how the heck they came away with a draw.  This time, the US were arguably the better side.  Pulisic missed a good chance and Pefok missed an even better one late in the match.  This is also not your father's scary Mexico team. Though the play didn't even generate a shot on goal, my favorite clip from the match, this week's YouTubeableMoment, was Gio Reyna's solo run. Stuff like this is what we've been hoping to see from the US team.

The implications of the 0-0 were clear; because of a better goal differential, a win over Panama would mean the US could go into the final match with Costa Rica knowing all they had to do was avoid a blow-out loss.

Act II - Mission Not Quite Accomplished

Pulisic's hat trick vs Panama all but clinched a WC spot
AP Photo/Julio Cortez

This went about as well as it could.  A 2-0 lead within 23 minutes. 3-0 at halftime.  A 5-1 final.  Check out this Pulisic goal here as Exhibit B of the type of soccer that might allow the US to have an impact on the international stage.  Additional good news included Costa Rica only beating El Salvador 2-1, meaning the goal differential had increased to 10 and it would take a six goal loss on Wednesday for the US to fall to fourth. The final score doesn't show that there were some scary moments in the first half.  Some sloppy play could have kept the first half margin tight and who knows if the rout continues at that point.  And rolling out a banner that said "Qualified" was a touch premature.  But it was a good night.

Act III - We Know the Way to Lose in San Jose

This place has actually been a tougher venue than Azteca for the USMNT.   They didn't play all that badly.  On the other hand, they still lost 0-2.  This felt like backing into WC qualification.  Of course, that's a little unfair given that the US earned the third WC spot based on their performance over the 14 match octagonal process.   But the margin was incredibly slim.  Turn one of the four draws into a loss and they don't make it.  Turn some of the routs into closer wins and they don't make it.  It's better than not qualifying obviously but unless we see more of that Reyna and Pulisic stuff, this does not feel like a team ready to make a deep run at the World Cup.  

No World Cup For You! Come Back, Four Years

Italy will miss the World Cup again (Photo AP)

Some countries were not as lucky as the US. They include top 20 teams like:

Italy (6th) - beaten by North Macedonia in playoff

Sweden (17th) - beaten by Poland in playoff

Colombia (19th)- 6th in CONMEBOL qualifying

Other notable absences will be Chile, Egypt and Algeria.  Given that the final is going to be expanded to 48 teams for 2026, this is probably the last time a top 20 team fails to make it to the final. 

Groups of Death, Pestilence and Plague

The WC draw is Friday at noon (EDT).  The process is explained here.  Next week we'll take a look at who got lucky and who got screwed.

Turning from WC stuff, we review other action from two weekends ago.  Except I can hardly remember the matches at this point.

We Love VAR Chapter 53

The Flyers beat the Rangers, er, I mean Union beat NYCFC 2-0 at Yankee Stadium.  Bedoya put the Union up early but NYCFC looked to be ready to 1) level things with a PK and 2) play the rest of the match a man up after Elliott was called for DOGSO. Real time I thought the call was flat out wrong and was likely to be overturned; the replay only reinforced that view.  But it also brought in a second possibility - that Rodriguez had handled the ball first, making Elliott's actions irrelevant.  And that is exactly how the referee saw it.  You can see the play here.  And just like at Montreal, they scored within minutes of the action restarting after the VAR took away an opposition goal, with Gazdag netting a perfect pass from Harriel.  I have a vague recollection of Harriel also clearing a shot off the line with his head.  Easily the best 90 minutes the Union have put together this year, with even the NY commentators conceding the Union defense is difficult to break down.

Overall a very nasty feel to the match.  A hockey game nearly broke out in the 72nd minute.  A bit surprising that only Wagner and Castellanos got yellows but maybe good refereeing to not make more out of it than necessary.  I guess it's a good thing that this rivalry is developing.  The win moved the Union to the top spot in the East.

What If They Had FA Cup Quarterfinals and I Didn't Watch?

The results still count.  Also, I did see most of Crystal Palace's 4-0 rout of Everton.  Chelsea jumped on Middlesbrough quickly and cruised to a 2-0 win.  Man City took their time but eventually pounded Southampton 4-1.  Against Nottingham Forest, Liverpool trotted out a line up without Salah and Mane and didn't score until the 78th minute, walking away with a quiet 1-0 win.  

So, after roughly 732 matches that began back in August, we have whittled the competition down to the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 12th place teams in the Premiership.  The quarters were six EPL and two Championship Divisions.  I know we hear about those magic moments in the FA Cup and minnows making deep runs but in the end, it usually winds up looking something like this.   

Remember the EPL?

They had a limited schedule two weeks ago because of the FA Cup quarterfinals.  Wolves did Newcastle and other relegation rivals no favor by coughing up a two goal lead to fall to Leeds 2-3.  Aston Villa did their usual thing, proving they can stay on the pitch with pretty much any team in the league without getting a result.  This time it was 0-1 to Arsenal.  Leicester slipped past Brentford 2-1.  The most important match of that weekend was Tottenham's 3-1 win over West Ham.  Spurs were up 2-0 early but the Hammers got one back late in thr first half.  The match stayed close until the end when Son got his second of the day to salt it away.  The loss leaves West Ham essentially out of the Champions League chase.  Tottenham are still a long shot but the win measurably improved their odds.

Resetting everybody for the run-in, here's the table.  Man City and Liverpool will battle it out for the title.  Chelsea look secure for the third CL spot while Arsenal have a leg up on Spurs and Man United for the final CL spot but have work to do to protect that berth.  At the other end, the Canaries in a coal mine is an apt description of Norwich - hard to see them making it out.  Watford are not far behind (ahead?).  Burnley, Everton and Leeds - in that order - are the leading candidates for the third spot.  Brentford and Newcastle are very likely safe but do need to be careful during the run-in.  Newcastle, for example, have four matches against top six sides but also have Norwich and Burnley.     

Back to Business

A lot of dark orange on the 538 match predictions, which means maybe not the tightest of match-ups.  Liverpool hosting Watford (Saturday 7:30 USA), Man City at Burnley (Sat 10 Peacock) and Chelsea hosting Brentford (Sat 10 on USA) are prime examples.  Arsenal at Crystal Palace (Monday at 3 on USA)and Tottenham hosting Newcastle (Sunday 11:30 USA)  round out the fixtures for the current top five.  Wait, add in Man United hosting Leicester (Sat 12:30 USA) and West Ham - Everton (Sunday 9 USA) and none of the top seven sides are looking at projected win percentages worse than 50%.  

Newcastle will be looking for a full shift
from ASM - but it probably won't be enough

We will of course be taking in Spurs - Newcastle at 11:30 on Sunday on USA; hard to see anything good coming out of that one.  Of the five Saturday 10 am matches, we recommend Wolves - Aston Villa (Saturday at 10 on CNBC).  The only bad thing here is that nothing is on the line; well maybe Wolves still have chance for one of the less European competitions.  Still, I'd look for a fun game; 538 has it as a dead heat.  The other 10 am match that could be wild is Leeds - Southampton on Peacock; that should be freewheeling as well.  Much better than say, Brighton - Norwich.

Wednesday we have Burnley - Everton which is great because one or both of these teams behind Newcastle are going to drop points.

Intriguing Champions League action midweek.  Tuesday is Benfica - Liverpool and Man City - Atletico Madrid while Wednesday is Villareal - Bayern and Chelsea - Real Madrid.  We'll probably go with the City - AM and Chelsea - RM matches.  A little surprised that 538 has City and Chelsea as such big favorites..

The Union are also back at home against the expansion team Charlotte.  We shouldn't get ahead of ourselves but 538 has the Union with 64% chance of win and 24% chance of draw.  Gotta like those odds.  

So, basically back to full-time football viewing after a slow couple of weeks.