Maybe They Should Have Taken the Bus

Eddie Howe eschewed Newcastle's usual 5-4-1 against stronger opposition, opting for a 4-3-3; the 5-1 beating by Tottenham suggests maybe parking the bus would have been the better choice.  If not for "results elsewhere" this could have been a really bad weekend.  The Union continue to win.  The World Cup draw wasn't all that favorable for the USMNT.

"Abyssmal, Muddled, Horrible"

Expensive messenger: Bruno delivers instructions
 for Shelvey to move to center back but the score
 shows the horse has already left the barn

Actually, The Athletic was being kind in their headline for the Newcastle's 5-1 defeat at Spurs.  After an amazingly even first half that ended 1-1, the second half onslaught started in the 48th minute and pretty much continued until the final whistle.  I haven't heard that it was driven by what Conte said or did in his halftime talk.  I did see that Eddie Howe felt his side were taking too many risks and "chasing the game."  He did move Jonjo Shelvey to center back but 1) the move might have been too late and 2) not clear that Shelvey operates effectively in that role. Also, sometimes you just have to tip your hat to the other guys as evidenced by this goal with Harry Kane sending a perfect cross to Matt Doherty.

Also troubling aside from the defensive lapses was the continued ineffectiveness of Saint-Maximin.  Maybe there's still not enough support to take advantage of his skills but I'm also concerned that maybe defenses are figuring out his game and he'll need to develop some new moves.  This was however, a team suck.  Fraser, Joelinton, Shelvey, Wood, and most of the crew just looked off.  It was just one really bad half so we shouldn't be too quick to push the panic button.  It does however show that while the Magpies have improved, they still have a ways to go.

Help Elsewhere

Fortunately, while Newcastle were getting thumped, other results were generally favorable to their survival chances.  Other than Brentford, the five sides below them dropped points.  Watford and Burnley had matching 0-2 losses to Liverpool and Man City.  In the latter, Burnley managed just .1 xG.  Everton also fell to West Ham.  Leeds drew 1-1 with Southampton but that was a match that you could have seen them winning.  Norwich did get a 0-0 draw with Brighton but one point for them at this point looks like the proverbial rearrangement of deck chairs on the Titanic.

Unlikely Doesn't Mean Impossible or Even Improbable

So last week I wrote about how the top seven sides were looking at an easier weekend.  Turned out to be a very mixed set of results for that group.  Spurs got the easy win noted above.  Man City (2-0 over Burnley), Liverpool (2-0 versus Watford) and West Ham (2-1 against Everton) prevailed; as the scores suggest, none of the matches were walkovers.  At least they won.  Chelsea and Arsenal were soundly beaten by Brentford and Crystal Palace respectively while Man United could only manage a draw with Leicester.  In each of these fixtures, the top seven side was a clear favorite at 538; the least favored was Arsenal with a 49% chance of a win and 27% chance of a draw (as in Crystal Palace was given only a 24% chance of winning).  The others win probabilities ranged from the 50s to the 80s.

This was a good reminder about statistics.  A 60% chance of winning sounds like a huge advantage but it's not as big as it sounds.  Over 100 contests, you'd win 60 and lose 40.  As a manager, I'd love to have those odds but I would also need to understand that model is telling me there's a 40% chance we won't win.

Champions League Battle On

Tottenham's win combined with Arsenal's loss has significantly tightened the race for the 4th Champions League spot.  Before the weekend, 538 had Arsenal with a 67% chance and Spurs just  25%.   Now the numbers are 52% and 44%.  Note that they play on Thursday May 12.  

Another Game Where It's Good We Don't Need Points

That was the reaction from Dennis as the Villans dropped their third straight, this time a 2-1 defeat on the road to Wolves.  We thought about pinning the loss on the equipment manager.  The first goal came as two defenders slipped.  The second was an OG from Ashley Young as he slipped trying to defend in the box.  Down 0-2 Villa did make a game of it the rest of the way though they wouldn't get on the board until the 89th minute.  For a few minutes a draw looked possible but it was not to be.  I was a bit disappointed with the whole thing having anticipated a more exciting contest.  Sure it ended up being close but this was still not the best we should be seeing from Villa.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did you say Aston Villa was hit with stomach virus?

Steve: No, I said they can't keep anything down

A Proper Six-pointer

I realize many were probably lured away by the Chelsea - Real Madrid Champions League fixture so they didn't see the marvelous relegation-relevant contest between Burnley and Everton.  Sometimes these are big on snarl and lacking in quality.  This one had both.  Plus a PK call that still bugs me.  Burnley went up on a great volley from a corner.  Everton roared back thanks to two PKs.  The first was probably correct and certainly not worthy of overturning.  The second, well, we'll discuss that below.  Burnley rallied with two in the second half, the game winner coming in the 85th minute.  Both goals were excellent examples of the "Bangu play" that Leading BFS Commentator Jurgen B. Sari identified two weeks ago.  Quality stuff.

It was a long time ago I realize but does anybody remember this directive to EPL referees at the beginning of the year?  I direct your attention to the following paragraphs:

This season, referees should not only establish whether there is clear contact but whether it had enough of a consequence in order to award a penalty and whether the player used the contact to try to win a foul or a penalty.

"It's not sufficient to just say there was contact," Riley added. "Contact on its own is only one element the referee should look for.

"If you have clear contact that has a consequence, it's a foul - but if you have any doubts in these elements, they are unlikely to be penalised.

"You also want it to be a proper foul and not the slightest contact that someone has used to go over to get a penalty."

Now watch this incident between Aaron Lennon and Vitalii Mykolenko.  The call on the field by Mike Dean was no foul.  He was persuaded to go to the monitor by the VAR and changed his call.  I have two problems with this.  First, is the play not exactly what is described in the directive?  Mykolenko did not go down as a result of any contact with Lennon, he threw his legs behind himself to make sure he went down.  Dean's call on the field was correct based on that directive.  But second, was that a clear and obvious error?  Hardly.  If  Dean's original thought was that there was no contact, maybe the replay put some doubt in his mind.  But was the contact of any consequence?  Still plenty of doubt on that score.  Re-refereeing for my taste.  

Though Everton are still ahead of  Burnley in the table, 538 now has Everton as more likely to go down, 48% versus 38%.

New Assistant Referee

Sharp-eyed Dennis noticed that the EPL has added Captain America Chris Evans as an Assistant Referee.  Guess he needs some spending money.  Either that or Constantine Hatzidakis has a stage name that we didn't know about.  

A Nicer Bus

Watching Newcastle play their 5-4-1 all these years, we have become somewhat of an expert on parking the bus.  I have to say that Atletico Madrid's 5-5-0 against Man City in their Champions League quarterfinal is perhaps the nicest bus I ever seen parked in a soccer match.  Certainly bigger and better and less likely to break down on the road than anything Newcastle have put out there.  Some pundits are giving Simeone crap for his tactics.  I admit that I'm not a fan of how frequently he employs that strategy but on the road in the two-legged tie with Man City, wtf do you expect him to do?  Only a brilliant pass from Foden and finish by DeBruyne kept AM from going home with a 0-0 draw.  As it is, starting 0-1 down at home is hardly an unsalvageable position.  The point is to advance, not satisfy purists.

Chelsea might have wished that Real Madrid's Karim Benzema didn't get off the bus.  His hat trick in the 3-1 win at Stamford Bridge leaves the Blues in a world of hurt.  The only good thing about this for Chelsea was at least they don't use the away goals rule anymore.  Liverpool were pretty solid away at Benfica and are sitting pretty with a 3-1 lead coming back to Anfield for the second leg.  In the fourth quarterfinal, Villareal took a 1-0 lead at home against Bayern but have their work cut out for them next week.

The Apple Doesn't Fall Far From the Tree

Dennis texted me during the West Ham - Lyon Europa League match:

You cannot Denayer that Lyon play with Gusto.

The condition, alas, is untreatable.

You Can Only Beat Who You Play

Nothing easy about the finish for Carranza's first for the Union

The Union continued to roll with a relatively easy win over expansion Charlotte.  They took just four
minutes to get on the scoreboard with a Wagner long ball that Santos crossed into the box for Carranza to volley into the goal.  We'll make his first Union goal this week's YouTubeableMoment,  Gazdag doubled the lead just after half time after Charlotte's keeper basically passed him the ball.  Meanwhile the defense continues to be sound, extending their scoreless record to 328 minutes.  Sure it was expected and true that Charlotte maybe aren't the strongest side in the East.  Still a very workmanlike effort.

Can We Try That Again?

Not much good news here for the USMNT

FIFA put us through an Oscars-like pomp and circumstance prior to the draw.  After 45 minutes they finally got down to the job at hand.   You can see the eight groups on the left.  There are still some places to be decided.  Scotland have to play Ukraine with the winner taking on Wales for a spot in Group B.  Costa Rica will face New Zealand for a spot in Group E.  And UAE will play Australia, with the winner taking on Peru for a spot in Group D.  

The consensus seems to be that there is no traditional "Group of Death,"  though we will discuss below how this draw did the USMNT no favors.  We see two candidates for the "Group of Mittens" (long story but in our family "mittens" is how we describe an incredibly easy task) - Group A or Group H.  

Just for fun we looked at the relative strength of each group using the FIFA rankings and assuming that the highest ranked teams win the remaining playoffs.  Given that the USA are a laughable high 15th by FIFA, those rankings might be considered, ahem, suspicious.  Still, the table is presented below.

Based on the total column, one could conclude that Group B (England, USA, Wales and Iran) is the toughest of the lot.  Looking at the overall spreads, we again observe that B is the most competitive.  A third test, strength of schedule, also points to B as the toughest.  England has the most difficult schedule of any of the teams that came from Pot A.  Same for the USA - that's the hardest set of fixtures for any of the teams from Pot B.  It's also true for the other two teams in the group. 

Moving away from the numbers, this just plain looks like sledding for the US.  A loss in their first match - likely Wales - would mean they have to beat Iran and at least draw England to have any chance of advancing to the knockout stage.  

Game of the Year?

Full schedule this weekend topped by the Man City - Liverpool clash at 11:30 on Sunday (USA).  Liverpool come in with somewhat better form, having won 10 straight while City have lost once and drawn twice in their last ten.  A win is probably more critical to Liverpool though both may be more intent on avoiding a loss.  Ironically, that will be preceded at 9 am on USA by a relegation special featuring Norwich and Burnley.

But well before that we have some Friday afternoon football, involving Newcastle no less.  We will watch at 3 pm on USA to see if the Magpies can put up a better effort against Wolves.  This should be a close match, and, assuming that Eddie Howe wasn't totally scared off the 4-3-3, some free flowing football.  I'm holding out some hope for a draw here.

Saturday's early game is Everton - Man United.  Since I'm not completely sold on Newcastle's safety, I'll be hoping for a draw or maybe a United win.  The relegation-relevant clash between Watford and Leeds is my choice of the 10 am matches but normal people should probably check in on Arsenal - Brighton.  Your third choice is Southampton - Chelsea..  NBC is back with feature game at 12:30 between Aston Villa and Tottenham.  Not saying they will win but Villa have shown they can play anybody close.  Besides the Norwich - Burnley Sunday match mentioned above, you could try Brentford - West Ham or Leicester - Crystal Palace but there's not a whole lot riding on either match, unless you think West Ham is still alive for the Champions League.

No midweek EPL action but don't forget the second legs of the Champions League quarter finals.  If you dvr, don't forget to add 90 minutes in case they require extra time.

The Union face a sterner test this week in the shape of the Columbus Crew.  The Crew are currently 5th in the East with 2 wins, 2 draws and a loss.  The U will need to be sharp to take all three here.  That's at 6 pm at Subaru Park or on PHL-17.