What Were We Worried About Again?

Ho hum.  Another win for Newcastle.  Not great stuff from the Union but a draw anyway.

And You May Find Yourself in 9th Place

Joe L puts in his second against Norwich

And you may ask yourself "Well, how did I get here?"  So Eddie Howe decides to give Joe L Linton a break from defensive midfield duties and lets him run loose up front.  And Joe responds with a brace!  You know you have a hot hand as a manager when that happens.  Yes, it was Norwich.  And yes, the first 30 minutes looked distressingly like Championship Division football.  From there though, Newcastle was in command and the 3-0 final looks about right.  Can't help but think about how a few months ago this looked like a crucial six-pointer and it turned into a rout. Mathematically not done but no team with 43 has ever been relegated since the top division went to 20 teams.  

Bad Time For A Drought

Tottenham struggled through another match without a shot on target and could only manage a 0-0 draw with Brentford.  With no shots on goal, this is also a bad time for their third leading scorer - own goals - to have a slump.  Coupled with Arsenal's solid 3-1 beating of Man United, you have to say the advantage in the chase for the fourth Champions League spot has swung back to the Gunners.  The Man United loss and West Ham's 0-1 loss to Chelsea on a late goal by Pulisic mean those two sides are effectively no longer in the hunt.  United did grab a point against Chelsea on Thursday but that can't be enough.  They trail Arsenal by five points and have played two more matches.  And it won't help if Arsenal lose to, say, Tottenham because Spurs are three up.  

Can You Have A 12 Pointer?

If you play a side close to you in the standings twice in less than two weeks you can.  We really don't think Aston Villa are relegation threatened at this point but they do play Burnley on 5/7 and 5/19.  Losses in both those fixtures would wipe out the current six point difference in the table between the two, although Villa would like still have a better goal differential.  In any case, Villa will play a big role in whether it's Burnley or Everton who eventually go down.  Hopefully it will be most interesting soccer than the snoozefest we saw in the Aston Villa - Leicester 0-0 draw on Saturday.  That game was awful, even at 8x fast forward on dvr.

King Makers?

And Aston Villa have a role to play at the top end of the table too.  They face Liverpool on 5/10 and take on Man City on the final day of the season - 5/22.  For that matter, Newcastle have dates with both the title contenders as well - Liverpool on 4/20 and City on 5/8.  Who would have thought the road to the EPL title has to go through both Newcastle and Birmingham?

No change at the top this week as Man City cruised 5-1 over Watford while Liverpool put up with some serious "shithousery" from Everton but prevailed 2-0.  Pickford was doing the keeper flop and taking extra time on each goal kick within the opening 10 minutes.  

Marsch vs Viera

Marsch and Viera were much better behaved on Monday

I didn't have time to do the research but I wonder if Monday's contest between Patrick Viera's Crystal Palace and Jesse Marsch's Leeds was the first time former MLS managers had faced each other in the EPL.  Recall that Viera led NYCFC and Marsch was at the helm of the Harrison Red Cows New York Red Bulls.  And apparently they had some history.  Good match on Monday.  The 0-0 final doesn't reveal how good the action was, including a bit of snarl between the two sides.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did you say Burnley kidnapped a Star Trek - Voyager character

Steve: No, I said Burnley have taken seven of nine

Good Thing We Don't Run the Team

Recall that both Dennis and I (and to be fair, a lot of pundits) thought sacking Sean Dyche with eight games to go was a bad idea.  The Clarets have responded with two wins and a draw.  Okay, maybe we overreacted.  The seven points have pulled Burnley out of the bottom three and made Everton the prohibitive "favorite" at 538 to go down.  Looking at xG suggests that Burnley might have been expected to get just four points instead of seven.  But they have been doing that all season, grabbing more points than that metric would suggest.  In other words, it would be hard to say their luck has changed because it wasn't all that bad to start with.  Maybe it helps that in the two wins they were playing sides (Southampton and Wolves) that might already be planning their summer vacations.  Whatever, Burnley ownership got exactly the response they wanted.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis: There are protests again outside Old Trafford before their match with Chelsea

Steve: Are you saying the Man United fans are revolting?

Not Firing On All Cylinders

Yes, that's former Spur Victor Wanyama chasing Gazdag

The Union looked like world-beaters for the first 20-25 minutes of their home match with Montreal.  Their only goal was a PK but it was fully deserved given the pressure they were putting on the visitors and the foul itself.  Then, nothing.  Tannenwald at the Inquirer suggests that Montreal essentially parked the bus after struggling in the opening minutes.  They did have some huge defensive midfielders.  The other problem is that the Union haven't managed to sync the passes with the runs.  Countless times we saw Uhre make a run and Gazdag make a pass behind him.  The Brotherly Game reports that the Union pass completion rate is 66%,  "the worst rate in the league in the last ten years." In some ways, how could we not expect this, given that Uhre didn't even get here until the week of the first game.  We're going with the glass is half full here - they got a 1-1 draw against a defensive-minded opponent on a day when we weren't at our best to begin with.

Champions League Semis

Wish I had more time to comment but the 4-3 first leg between Man City and Real Madrid was a corker.  It was good enough that we'll make the extended highlights this week's YouTubeableMoment. The other tie, Liverpool - Villareal wasn't quite as compelling with the Reds taking a 2-0 win over the Yellow Submarine.  Both matches head to Spain next week.

When Pastimes Collide

Penn Relays are going to severely cut into Saturday's viewing.  I'll probably get to see Newcastle host Liverpool at 7:30 on USA and that'll be it.  Have no expectations of a result here but I am very curious to see what type of the game this is.  In the "old" days, Newcastle would come out in a 5-4-1 (10-0-0) and hang on for dear life.  On the other hand, they did get too aggressive against Tottenham and got opened up.  Let's see if they can strike a better balance.

The four 10 am games are an interesting mix, with three looking like close contests.  However, as close as Southampton vs Crystal Palace (Peacock) and Wolves - Brighton (Peacock) might be, we gotta go with relegation six-pointer between Watford and Burnley.  Watford are probably toast anyway but this looks like a last chance for them.  BTW, I'd say the TV schedulers agree with us as that it is the USA choice. The other 10 am option is to see if Aston Villa drive another nail in the Norwich coffin (CNBC).

The NBC feature match at 12:30 is Leeds - Man City.  There might be some goals there.

All three Sunday matches have implications at one end of the table or the other.  At 9, Everton host Chelsea (USA); the Toffees could find themselves five points adrift of safety by kickoff.  Also at 9, Tottenham hope to 1)break out of their funk and 2) keep their Champions League hopes alive as they take on Leicester; that one's on Peacock.  At 11:30, there's a London derby featuring West Ham vs Arsenal on USA.  The Hammers are already a real long shot but lose this one and they are 11 points out of fourth.    

The matchweek concludes with a Monday match ( 3 pm on USA) between Man United and Brentford.  United are basically in the same straits as West Ham.  

Don't miss the second legs of the Champions League semi-finals.  Villareal - Liverpool is Tuesday, Real Madrid - Man City Wednesday.  Both are at 3 pm and if I read my guide right, both are on CBS.  Don't forget to add 90 minutes in case they go to extra time.

The U are headed to Tennessee for a tough away match versus Nashville SC.  That's Sunday at 4 pm.  I'll be on delay for that one as I'll be recording a concert of the Delaware County Symphony.  I gotta get my interests to coordinate their schedules better.  

Two more wins from Newcastle drop their relegation odds at 538 to under 1%.  The Union take their first loss. 

Is it sacrilegious to say that Newcastle completed their rise from the dead on Easter Sunday? Probably but that's what happened.  They had played Leicester basically even and were hanging on to a 1-1 draw.  Late in stoppage time, Matt Targett bodied away the Leicester attacker deep in the Newcastle end and sent a great outlet pass to Joe Willock.  Willock made a nice move to ghost past the Leicester defender into open space down the left wing.  All I was thinking was this is great as we can run the clock out and take our one point.  But Willock kept going to the byline before sending a cross into the box.  The pass was deflected slightly, enough for Guimaraes to make a beautiful diving header to steal all three points.  Pandamonium!  An easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Actually it's only Part I; for Part II, we need to see how it looked to the Toon Army in the stands.  You can see that here,

As with Wolves last week, the three points were awesome, but there were other takeaways even without the win.  Biggest for me is that surrendering the first goal no longer means the match is over.  In the "old" days, once the seal was broken, there was no hope of recovery.  There was no let down after Lookman's goal at 19 minutes and Newcastle had the equalizer within 11 minutes.  I thought the game seemed pretty even from there, though 538 says Newcastle had the better chances.  I was also heartened by Krafth's performance at right back as he has stepped up in Trippier's absence.  The whole back line had another solid day.  Would have been happy with a draw, loved the win.

Miggie's Rehab Continues

Good to have Miggie back on the scoresheet

Ryan Fraser's re-emergence was a key part of the Magpie renaissance.  His hamstring injury has proven to be a chance for another player's redemption.  Miguel Almiron was the forgotten man until Fraser went down.  There was much talk that he would be one of the first departures in the summer.  His first games back were not perfect but his work rate was unquestioned and he was contributing.  Wednesday he took it step further with the game winning (and only) goal in Newcastle's 1-0 triumph over Crystal Palace.  In a match lacking in quality finishing, his strike was truly the difference between a draw and a win.  So, we add a YouTubeableMoment Part III.  Fights off the defender, settles the ball, places the shot perfectly with his left foot.  Note that Guimaraes made the outlet pass.  

Six points where two was the more likely outcome.  Newcastle are not mathematically safe yet but at 40 points, things look good.  Only three times in EPL history has 40 not been enough.

PTSD - Punchless Tottenham Spurs Disorder

Once again I suggested the CL chase pack looked set for a relatively easy weekend.  Once again I was wrong.  Spurs and Arsenal lost.  West Ham drew at home with Burnley.  Man United did manage to beat Norwich but only after coughing up a two goal lead. 

One stat stands out in Tottenham's 0-1 loss to Brighton - zero (0) shots on goal.  They only had five shots total.  You may have read that Spur's have 10 own goals this year, making OG their third leading scorer.  So maybe it's not completely accurate to say you can't score without a shot on goal.  But sometimes you gotta help out a little bit.  The blow was softened a bit when Arsenal also fell, losing 0-1 to Southampton.

Any momentum from Man United's narrow win on Saturday was lost by Tuesday as they were crushed 4-0 by Liverpool. The Red Devils had two shots, just one on goal and an xG of .3 xG.   They lost their two contests with Liverpool this season by a combined 0-9.  

Arsenal did come back with solid 4-2 win over Chelsea on Wednesday.  

So Tottenham and Arsenal now have identical 18-3-11 records but Spurs goal differential is +18 while the Gunners are at +10.  Despite that differential, 538 has Arsenal with a 50% chance at the fourth spot and Spurs at 48%. 

Burnley Roll the Dyche

We hope to see Sean Dyche get another gig soon

With eight matches left in the season,  Burnley sacked long-time manager Sean Dyche.  Put us in the camp of "how does that make sense?"  Especially as it appears no successor was lined up.  Mike Jackson, their U23 manager currently has the reins.  There is much discussion about the "new manager bounce" and some data shows that there can be an uptick in performance.  But how often is that attributable to the manager or how long is it sustained?  In the case of Burnley, they probably don't care as long they get better for eight games and avoid relegation.  Ownership will happily point to three points in two games so far since the sacking.

We confess to admiring his work.  He had less money to spend than just about anybody but kept Burnley in the top division, even qualifying for Europe one year.  Besides, how can they sack the guy who did the best manager interview evah?  Tell it like it is, Sean.

Quad Is Not Dead

Liverpool and Chelsea advanced to the FA Cup finals with wins over the weekend.  For Liverpool, this means they are still in the hunt for the "quad."  They've already won the League Cup, have advanced to the semis in Champions League and trail Man City by just point for the EPL title.

The 3-2 final between Liverpool and Man City doesn't really tell the story.  Liverpool jumped on City early, who frankly looked like they still had a hangover from their Champions League tussle with Atletico.  Up 3-0 at half, it seemed like even more of rout than that.  Grealish got one back for City early n the second half and it was a closer contest.  But City's second came in stoppage so it wasn't as tight as the final suggests.  I'd say Chelsea were in control but did not blow Crystal Palace away in their 2-0 win.  

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did you say Guardiola is an atheist?

Steve: No, I said his interest in Erling Haaland shows that he doesn't really believe in Jesus.

Some Days the VAR Eats You

The Union have benefitted from some VAR decisions this year but Saturday was not one of them.  One we can have no complaint about.  With the score tied 1-1 late in the first half, the U looked to have regained the lead.  I admit the goal looked suspect live.  Carranza (I think) was in an offside position and did not affect the play per se.  However, it was hard to argue that he didn't obstruct keeper Bono's vision.  The second decision, or non-decision really, was not to upgrade Jayden Nelson's challenge on Kai Wagner from yellow to red.  You can see the play here.  Certainly checks off a number of boxes for a red card but the referee did not go to the monitor to review.  That the league handed Nelson a one-game suspension after the match suggests that the refereeing crew did not get this right.  

Carranza heads in a nice cross from Uhre for Union's only goal

However, as is our practice, we will not pin the 2-1 loss on the referee's.  No, we will look to the reluctance of Union defenders to shut down Toronto as the root cause here.  On the game winner, I counted four players that might have been able to close down Pozuelo.  Two different sources (MLS and 538) show a massive advantage to the Union on xG; MLS has it 2 - .4 and 538 says 1.8 - .6.  That suggests 1) that the U are still not taking advantage of their scoring opportunities 2) that the Toronto goals came from unlikely situations.  There is, I suppose, the possibility that they were outstanding shots but still feel like the issue was the Union not closing down quickly enough.

Even with the loss, the U still lead by two with a game in hand over Orlando. 

Another Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis:  Did you say Toronto have The Edge over the Union in goal?

Steve: No, I said Bono is the Toronto keeper

Eight Days A Week (apologies to The Beatles)

Football every day this week.  And, given the title race, the chase for Champions League and the relegation battle, just about every fixture has significance.

And we get right into it Saturday with a 7:30 clash between Arsenal and Man United on USA.  This is likely the last gasp for the Red Devils; a loss, or probably even a draw, is going to leave them with too much to make up.  The Gunners found their mojo against Chelsea and are clearly in the running for the fourth Champions League spot.

My 10 am choice is settled with Newcastle traveling to Norwich. Not that long ago, this loomed as a must win fixture for the Magpies; now it's more about the numbers - working towards making it mathematically impossible for Newcastle to go down.  Probably only friends and family of those two sides will choose this one.  You could watch Man City on USA look to hold onto first as they take on Watford, whose relegation fate is just about sealed at this point.  The third option, which might be the most fun for the neutrals is Leicester - Aston Villa on CNBC, the exception to my opening statement. Nothing on the line here and both teams are probably more interested in just playing some good football.

We have a NBC feature match at 12:30 between Brentford and Tottenham.  The Bees have done well in their first season back in the EPL and Spurs will need to do better than they did against Brighton or face more dropped points.

Three 9 am matches Sunday morning.  Those with focus on the relegation battle should go with Burnley - Wolves (Peacock); the Clarets are actually slight favorites and have a chance to escape the bottom three with a win or draw combined with an Everton loss.  Chelsea - West Ham (USA) isn't a bad choice either; West Ham are likely out of Champions League contention but still have a chance for Europe.  Your third choice is the other match with little at stake - Brighton - Southampton on Peacock.  Speaking of Everton, there is a Merseyside derby at 11:30 (USA) which looks like a derby in name only; Liverpool are big favorites and will likely need a win to stay a point behind Man City.  On the other hand, Everton could easily find themselves in the relegation zone by day's end.

The match week concludes with an interesting clash with Leeds traveling to Selhurst park to take on  Crystal Palace.  Leeds are probably safe but shouldn't be putting on the flip-flops just yet so look for them to put on a good show.  

Only one midweek EPL contest but it's a good one - Man United hosting Chelsea on Thursday at 2:45 on USA.

Don't despair about what to watch during the week though as we have the first legs of the Champions League semi-finals.  Tuesday is Man City hosting Real Madrid and Wednesday is Liverpool - Villareal.  At 538, the EPL sides are serious favorites but these first legs aren't just about winning - the margin is also critical.  As in 1-0 home wins leave you in a dangerous position for the second leg.

Saturday we'll be back at Subaru Park for the first time since the opener as the Union take on Montreal.  We'll be looking for some better D and maybe some finishing.

Yikes, all this plus Penn Relays next week.  

Almost There

A pair of home 1-0 wins for Newcastle and the Union that probably should have been draws.  We are not complaining.  The Magpie win means they are almost out of danger.

Wolves Huff and Puff But Don't Score 

Maybe not the most egregious foul but Sa did trip Wood

While the 1-0 final over Wolves might flatter Newcastle a bit, there were many things to be please about, other than just the three points.  After the collapse at Tottenham, they got the defensive balance right; they held Wolves to five shots, just two on target.  Second was the possible re-emergence of Miguel Almiron.  He's not been a part of the resurgence as Ryan Fraser has been in form.  But Fraser got hurt early and Almiron, not Jacob Murphy, was the sub.  He did not disappoint, working well with Bruno and generally using his pace to create offensive chances.  He's a favorite here so we hope it continues.  Lastly, there was a full 90 minute performance from Bruno.  He was seemingly everywhere, making plays and creating chances.  Piano carrier indeed.  The Chronicle gave him a perfect rating of 10 for the match.

As usual, Newcastle were outpossessed but they did outshoot Wolves.  Chris Wood put the ball in the net twice, but one was chalked off correctly for a narrow offside call.  He did convert the PK he earned after getting tripped by Sa in the box.  Hopefully there are more to come from him.  

They are not quite over the line but 538 has them with just 2% chance of going down.  Obviously the win over Wolves was a big lift but so was Burnley's 0-2 loss to Norwich.  

I Thought His First Name Was Danny

How many times in the Villa - Spurs game did we hear the phrase "Shirley Ings must score there?"  Aston Villa had plenty of chances in the first half but failed to convert any.  Son got player of the match for his hat trick but I thought it should have been Lloris for keeping the match scoreless in the first half.  Without his saves, the second half is probably a lot different.  Just like last week, in the second half, Tottenham seem to be able to score at will.  Check out this flick from Harry Kane that sent Son on his merry way to make the score 3-0 on their way to the 4-0 win.  An odd statistical artifact from this match is that xG favors Villa 2.2 - .85.  That's further evidence for me that Lloris was the POM.  

Reversal of Fortune

Good weekend for Spurs fans.  Barely two weeks ago their CL chances were slim.  After the win at Aston Villa combined with losses by Arsenal (to Brighton), Man United (to Everton), West Ham (to Brentford), and Wolves, the fourth spot is theirs to lose.  But, recall we wrote that about Arsenal recently and they proceeded to do just that with consecutive defeats to Crystal Palace and Brighton. 

A Game of the Year That Lived Up to Its Billing

Great viewing, especially for the neutral.  The Reds were awful in the first half, giving away possession frequently, often in dangerous locations.  Somehow they came away down just 2-1.  Klopp must have said something good in the locker room as they came out much improved and leveled things almost immediately.  Good intensity the rest of the way, with both sides not exactly ready to settle for a draw.  That is where they ended though and the 2-2 final looks about right to me.  I thought it would have been a bigger boost to City's chances but the numbers barely moved with the result.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did you say Pep has found religion?

Steve: No, I said he's turned to Jesus for the big match against Liverpool.

Champions League Viewing Dilemma

At first it seemed like Tuesday's choice was easy.  Chelsea down 3-1 to Real Madrid heading for the Bernabeu while Bayern down just a goal to Villareal and playing at home.  As Bayern were pummeling Villarreal's goal without success, Chelsea started a comeback.  When Chelsea scored a second to level the match on aggregate, it was time to revise viewing strategy - stream Bayern-Villareal on computer, turn Real-Madrid on TV.

The stuff of Chelsea nightmares: Benzema had 4 goals in the two legs

Just a wild ride in from there.  Chelsea score to take the lead.  Nope, the ball touched Alonso's hand (btw, there was no need to go to the monitor on that call - once VAR confirms that the ball made contact with the hand, there is no need for further review based on the current rule).  Bayern finally break through and level things.  Surely they will cruise in from there.  Not so fast, and please don't call me Shirley. In the 88th minute, Samuel Chukwueze scored to give Villareal the victory, 2-1 on aggregate. we'll make that goal this week's YouTubeableMoment. Meanwhile, back in Madrid they "headed" for extra time.  Six minutes in, there was first leg hero Karim Benzema putting a no-doubt-about-header passed Mendy for what would give Real Madrid the win, 5-4 on aggregate.

How To Make Me A Man City Fan

Readers know that it's a rare day when Man City is my preferred side in an EPL contest.  Even in the European club competitions, where I'll almost always choose the EPL side over any other league, my support for City would be described as tepid at best.  Not so Wednesday in the second leg of their tie with Atletico Madrid.  By the end of this one I was in full throated voice hoping City would hang on to their 1-0 lead, which they did.  Fed up barely captures my feeling about the whole Atletico Madrid culture at this point.   Actually, the descent into the abyss started last week in the first leg when two Atleti players (Savic and Vrsaljko) told Grealish "we're going to get you next week."  Things did not start well on Wednesday, with the fans booing the players who took a knee.  They ended as badly, with Guardiola being pelted with bottles and helmeted police rushing down the tunnel to break up renewed altercations between the players, including an incredibly awkward attempt at a head butt by Vrsaljko.  The 90+ minutes in between were not pretty either.  Check out this write up from The Guardian's Barney Ronay.  So many money quotes; I'll pick two:

a match that had passed through, the gullet like a gnarly, gristly piece of mutton

And above all the spectacle of Atlético’s players shaking their heads in utter confusion, lost in red mist that felt like someone else’s red mist, self‑Atléticoed, playing that horrible game from the other side.

I saw another article noting that Savic got a yellow for his involvement in the stoppage time fracas but it was not clear whether the card was for the hair pulling against Grealish or the head butt against Sterling.  I won't give City a free pass here as they definitely knew how to milk the clock after robust challenges; did you see Foden's Neymar roll after the Felipe tackle in stoppage time?  However, that wasn't fake blood Foden was spilling after Felipe's challenge in the first half.  We can argue about what the Felipe's sanction should have been but that's not my point here; Foden wasn't milking anything on that one.  

I'm not saying that AM are the only club that practice that dark arts.  However, Stuart James points out in The Athletic (behind paywall) :

... it is hard to escape the feeling that Atletico are the market leaders when it comes to what has commonly become known as shithousery. In other words, play-acting, time-wasting, haranguing referees and generally trying to get opponents booked or sent off.

I'm always astonished at how tolerant referees are when multiple players surround them.  How is that not an attempt to physically intimidate the referee?  If it was me, I hope I'd have the balls to give one warning, then start handing out yellow cards like Pez to anyone who didn't back off.

Last week, I defended Simeone's defensive approach to the first leg at The Etihad.  But after watching Wednesday's match and reading about other incidents, I am forced to conclude that the pre-whistle through post-whistle ugliness is an inevitable - and calculated - result of Simeone's philosophy.  It's not a bug in the software, it is a design feature.  Of course, Simeone is free to choose whatever approach he thinks he needs to win.  And just as clearly, the rest of us are free to hope that he fails.

A final note on this.  I fully acknowledge that I got a lot of my information from the English press, which is possibly not unbiased here.  But, I also got stuff from US sources.  I doubt the Spanish coverage was unbiased.  In fact, Marca, a Spanish daily newspaper suggested:

"the world needs a leader like Savic."

Hmm, I understand that Putin may be new man in Ukraine. Maybe Savic should apply.

Oh, in Wednesday's other quarterfinal, Klopp got away with a gamble, sitting out some key players, but getting a 3-3 draw for a 6-4 win on aggregate over Benfica.  Actually it's not as close as it sounds.  The aggregate score was 4-1 at one point and 6-2 until two late goals made it a little tighter.

The CL semis will be Man City - Real Madrid and Liverpool - Villareal, a totally English - Spanish affair.

Ownest Goal Evah or Room For Improvement

We expected a tight contest with the Columbus Crew.  We did not expect an outright gift in the second minute.  Check out this "howler" from Crew keeper Eloy Room.  Turned out to be the only goal of the night.  Not that there weren't several good chances from both sides.  The Union did a better job of putting them on frame but neither side broke through.  So, finishing remains the primary area for the U to work on.  Certainly, the defense continues to shine, with the scoreless streak now extending to 418 minutes. BFS Keeper Consultant Graham R notes while Blake has made his share of good saves, the scoreless streak is more a reflection of the team's commitment to defending.  Elliott and Glesnes have been stellar in the center, Wagner and Harriel steady at fullback and the midfielders like Martinez and Flach (and even Bedoya) have pitched in. 

Five points clear at the top in April?  Not a typo.

FA Cup Semis

The weekend is fragmented because of the FA Cup semi-finals.  Man City and Liverpool will do it all over again Saturday at 10:30, this time at Wembley and there must be a winner.  The other semi is Chelsea - Crystal Palace at 11:30 on Sunday.  Looks like your only viewing option is streaming on ESPN+

Just six EPL games on Saturday-Sunday but there are another six on Tuesday-Thursday.  The four contestants for the final CL spot have winnable fixtures.  Spurs host Brighton (Sat 7:30 USA), Man United play Norwich (Sat 10 on USA), Arsenal travel to Southampton (Sat 10 am Peacock) and West Ham host Burnley (Sun 9:15 Peacock).  Yeah, some of those look more winnable than others but the odds suggest no change in that race.

A good chance we'll see Almiron
in the starting XI vs Leicester

Surprisingly, again, the best looking match of the weekend is Newcastle's fixture, a home match with Leicester (Sunday at 9:15 on USA).  This should be about the same as Newcastle - Wolves.  I expect Howe will set up with the 4-3-3 and let his guys go at it.  Leicester, in no danger of Europe or relegation, will probably do the same. 

The only other weekend match is Watford - Brentford (Saturday at 10 on CNBC); not sure why they felt this was worthy of TV.  Brentford are safe and Watford are pretty much toast.

Some very tasty midweek action.  Tuesday is Liverpool - Man United at 3 pm on USA.  Wednesday has Chelsea - Arsenal at 2:45, also on USA.  And once again, Newcastle offer maybe the most competitive contest, as they host Crystal Palace, Wednesday at 2:45 on Peacock.  Other offerings include Everton - Leicester (Wed at 2:45 on Peacock), Man City hosting Brighton (Wed 3 on Peacock) and Burnley - Southampton (Thursday at 2:45 on USA).

The Union match at Toronto Saturday night at 7:30 (PHL-17) will tell us two things.  First, we'll be watching to see how the Union fare on the road against a decent, if not great, side; this is not a gimme.  Second, the trip will reveal the vaccination status of the roster.  As of 1/15/22, Canada ended the exemption for unvaccinated pro athletes to enter the country.  So, if there are notable exclusions in Saturday night's roster, that might identify any unvaccinated Union players.  We have been told on several occasions that all Union players are vaccinated so hopefully it won't be an issue for this Philadelphia franchise.

What, another Monday with no football?

Maybe They Should Have Taken the Bus

Eddie Howe eschewed Newcastle's usual 5-4-1 against stronger opposition, opting for a 4-3-3; the 5-1 beating by Tottenham suggests maybe parking the bus would have been the better choice.  If not for "results elsewhere" this could have been a really bad weekend.  The Union continue to win.  The World Cup draw wasn't all that favorable for the USMNT.

"Abyssmal, Muddled, Horrible"

Expensive messenger: Bruno delivers instructions
 for Shelvey to move to center back but the score
 shows the horse has already left the barn

Actually, The Athletic was being kind in their headline for the Newcastle's 5-1 defeat at Spurs.  After an amazingly even first half that ended 1-1, the second half onslaught started in the 48th minute and pretty much continued until the final whistle.  I haven't heard that it was driven by what Conte said or did in his halftime talk.  I did see that Eddie Howe felt his side were taking too many risks and "chasing the game."  He did move Jonjo Shelvey to center back but 1) the move might have been too late and 2) not clear that Shelvey operates effectively in that role. Also, sometimes you just have to tip your hat to the other guys as evidenced by this goal with Harry Kane sending a perfect cross to Matt Doherty.

Also troubling aside from the defensive lapses was the continued ineffectiveness of Saint-Maximin.  Maybe there's still not enough support to take advantage of his skills but I'm also concerned that maybe defenses are figuring out his game and he'll need to develop some new moves.  This was however, a team suck.  Fraser, Joelinton, Shelvey, Wood, and most of the crew just looked off.  It was just one really bad half so we shouldn't be too quick to push the panic button.  It does however show that while the Magpies have improved, they still have a ways to go.

Help Elsewhere

Fortunately, while Newcastle were getting thumped, other results were generally favorable to their survival chances.  Other than Brentford, the five sides below them dropped points.  Watford and Burnley had matching 0-2 losses to Liverpool and Man City.  In the latter, Burnley managed just .1 xG.  Everton also fell to West Ham.  Leeds drew 1-1 with Southampton but that was a match that you could have seen them winning.  Norwich did get a 0-0 draw with Brighton but one point for them at this point looks like the proverbial rearrangement of deck chairs on the Titanic.

Unlikely Doesn't Mean Impossible or Even Improbable

So last week I wrote about how the top seven sides were looking at an easier weekend.  Turned out to be a very mixed set of results for that group.  Spurs got the easy win noted above.  Man City (2-0 over Burnley), Liverpool (2-0 versus Watford) and West Ham (2-1 against Everton) prevailed; as the scores suggest, none of the matches were walkovers.  At least they won.  Chelsea and Arsenal were soundly beaten by Brentford and Crystal Palace respectively while Man United could only manage a draw with Leicester.  In each of these fixtures, the top seven side was a clear favorite at 538; the least favored was Arsenal with a 49% chance of a win and 27% chance of a draw (as in Crystal Palace was given only a 24% chance of winning).  The others win probabilities ranged from the 50s to the 80s.

This was a good reminder about statistics.  A 60% chance of winning sounds like a huge advantage but it's not as big as it sounds.  Over 100 contests, you'd win 60 and lose 40.  As a manager, I'd love to have those odds but I would also need to understand that model is telling me there's a 40% chance we won't win.

Champions League Battle On

Tottenham's win combined with Arsenal's loss has significantly tightened the race for the 4th Champions League spot.  Before the weekend, 538 had Arsenal with a 67% chance and Spurs just  25%.   Now the numbers are 52% and 44%.  Note that they play on Thursday May 12.  

Another Game Where It's Good We Don't Need Points

That was the reaction from Dennis as the Villans dropped their third straight, this time a 2-1 defeat on the road to Wolves.  We thought about pinning the loss on the equipment manager.  The first goal came as two defenders slipped.  The second was an OG from Ashley Young as he slipped trying to defend in the box.  Down 0-2 Villa did make a game of it the rest of the way though they wouldn't get on the board until the 89th minute.  For a few minutes a draw looked possible but it was not to be.  I was a bit disappointed with the whole thing having anticipated a more exciting contest.  Sure it ended up being close but this was still not the best we should be seeing from Villa.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did you say Aston Villa was hit with stomach virus?

Steve: No, I said they can't keep anything down

A Proper Six-pointer

I realize many were probably lured away by the Chelsea - Real Madrid Champions League fixture so they didn't see the marvelous relegation-relevant contest between Burnley and Everton.  Sometimes these are big on snarl and lacking in quality.  This one had both.  Plus a PK call that still bugs me.  Burnley went up on a great volley from a corner.  Everton roared back thanks to two PKs.  The first was probably correct and certainly not worthy of overturning.  The second, well, we'll discuss that below.  Burnley rallied with two in the second half, the game winner coming in the 85th minute.  Both goals were excellent examples of the "Bangu play" that Leading BFS Commentator Jurgen B. Sari identified two weeks ago.  Quality stuff.

It was a long time ago I realize but does anybody remember this directive to EPL referees at the beginning of the year?  I direct your attention to the following paragraphs:

This season, referees should not only establish whether there is clear contact but whether it had enough of a consequence in order to award a penalty and whether the player used the contact to try to win a foul or a penalty.

"It's not sufficient to just say there was contact," Riley added. "Contact on its own is only one element the referee should look for.

"If you have clear contact that has a consequence, it's a foul - but if you have any doubts in these elements, they are unlikely to be penalised.

"You also want it to be a proper foul and not the slightest contact that someone has used to go over to get a penalty."

Now watch this incident between Aaron Lennon and Vitalii Mykolenko.  The call on the field by Mike Dean was no foul.  He was persuaded to go to the monitor by the VAR and changed his call.  I have two problems with this.  First, is the play not exactly what is described in the directive?  Mykolenko did not go down as a result of any contact with Lennon, he threw his legs behind himself to make sure he went down.  Dean's call on the field was correct based on that directive.  But second, was that a clear and obvious error?  Hardly.  If  Dean's original thought was that there was no contact, maybe the replay put some doubt in his mind.  But was the contact of any consequence?  Still plenty of doubt on that score.  Re-refereeing for my taste.  

Though Everton are still ahead of  Burnley in the table, 538 now has Everton as more likely to go down, 48% versus 38%.

New Assistant Referee

Sharp-eyed Dennis noticed that the EPL has added Captain America Chris Evans as an Assistant Referee.  Guess he needs some spending money.  Either that or Constantine Hatzidakis has a stage name that we didn't know about.  

A Nicer Bus

Watching Newcastle play their 5-4-1 all these years, we have become somewhat of an expert on parking the bus.  I have to say that Atletico Madrid's 5-5-0 against Man City in their Champions League quarterfinal is perhaps the nicest bus I ever seen parked in a soccer match.  Certainly bigger and better and less likely to break down on the road than anything Newcastle have put out there.  Some pundits are giving Simeone crap for his tactics.  I admit that I'm not a fan of how frequently he employs that strategy but on the road in the two-legged tie with Man City, wtf do you expect him to do?  Only a brilliant pass from Foden and finish by DeBruyne kept AM from going home with a 0-0 draw.  As it is, starting 0-1 down at home is hardly an unsalvageable position.  The point is to advance, not satisfy purists.

Chelsea might have wished that Real Madrid's Karim Benzema didn't get off the bus.  His hat trick in the 3-1 win at Stamford Bridge leaves the Blues in a world of hurt.  The only good thing about this for Chelsea was at least they don't use the away goals rule anymore.  Liverpool were pretty solid away at Benfica and are sitting pretty with a 3-1 lead coming back to Anfield for the second leg.  In the fourth quarterfinal, Villareal took a 1-0 lead at home against Bayern but have their work cut out for them next week.

The Apple Doesn't Fall Far From the Tree

Dennis texted me during the West Ham - Lyon Europa League match:

You cannot Denayer that Lyon play with Gusto.

The condition, alas, is untreatable.

You Can Only Beat Who You Play

Nothing easy about the finish for Carranza's first for the Union

The Union continued to roll with a relatively easy win over expansion Charlotte.  They took just four
minutes to get on the scoreboard with a Wagner long ball that Santos crossed into the box for Carranza to volley into the goal.  We'll make his first Union goal this week's YouTubeableMoment,  Gazdag doubled the lead just after half time after Charlotte's keeper basically passed him the ball.  Meanwhile the defense continues to be sound, extending their scoreless record to 328 minutes.  Sure it was expected and true that Charlotte maybe aren't the strongest side in the East.  Still a very workmanlike effort.

Can We Try That Again?

Not much good news here for the USMNT

FIFA put us through an Oscars-like pomp and circumstance prior to the draw.  After 45 minutes they finally got down to the job at hand.   You can see the eight groups on the left.  There are still some places to be decided.  Scotland have to play Ukraine with the winner taking on Wales for a spot in Group B.  Costa Rica will face New Zealand for a spot in Group E.  And UAE will play Australia, with the winner taking on Peru for a spot in Group D.  

The consensus seems to be that there is no traditional "Group of Death,"  though we will discuss below how this draw did the USMNT no favors.  We see two candidates for the "Group of Mittens" (long story but in our family "mittens" is how we describe an incredibly easy task) - Group A or Group H.  

Just for fun we looked at the relative strength of each group using the FIFA rankings and assuming that the highest ranked teams win the remaining playoffs.  Given that the USA are a laughable high 15th by FIFA, those rankings might be considered, ahem, suspicious.  Still, the table is presented below.

Based on the total column, one could conclude that Group B (England, USA, Wales and Iran) is the toughest of the lot.  Looking at the overall spreads, we again observe that B is the most competitive.  A third test, strength of schedule, also points to B as the toughest.  England has the most difficult schedule of any of the teams that came from Pot A.  Same for the USA - that's the hardest set of fixtures for any of the teams from Pot B.  It's also true for the other two teams in the group. 

Moving away from the numbers, this just plain looks like sledding for the US.  A loss in their first match - likely Wales - would mean they have to beat Iran and at least draw England to have any chance of advancing to the knockout stage.  

Game of the Year?

Full schedule this weekend topped by the Man City - Liverpool clash at 11:30 on Sunday (USA).  Liverpool come in with somewhat better form, having won 10 straight while City have lost once and drawn twice in their last ten.  A win is probably more critical to Liverpool though both may be more intent on avoiding a loss.  Ironically, that will be preceded at 9 am on USA by a relegation special featuring Norwich and Burnley.

But well before that we have some Friday afternoon football, involving Newcastle no less.  We will watch at 3 pm on USA to see if the Magpies can put up a better effort against Wolves.  This should be a close match, and, assuming that Eddie Howe wasn't totally scared off the 4-3-3, some free flowing football.  I'm holding out some hope for a draw here.

Saturday's early game is Everton - Man United.  Since I'm not completely sold on Newcastle's safety, I'll be hoping for a draw or maybe a United win.  The relegation-relevant clash between Watford and Leeds is my choice of the 10 am matches but normal people should probably check in on Arsenal - Brighton.  Your third choice is Southampton - Chelsea..  NBC is back with feature game at 12:30 between Aston Villa and Tottenham.  Not saying they will win but Villa have shown they can play anybody close.  Besides the Norwich - Burnley Sunday match mentioned above, you could try Brentford - West Ham or Leicester - Crystal Palace but there's not a whole lot riding on either match, unless you think West Ham is still alive for the Champions League.

No midweek EPL action but don't forget the second legs of the Champions League quarter finals.  If you dvr, don't forget to add 90 minutes in case they require extra time.

The Union face a sterner test this week in the shape of the Columbus Crew.  The Crew are currently 5th in the East with 2 wins, 2 draws and a loss.  The U will need to be sharp to take all three here.  That's at 6 pm at Subaru Park or on PHL-17.

In

WC qualifying wraps up, FA Cup Quarters and random league matches.

The CONCACAF WC qualifying process concluded this week with the last three matches of the Octagonal.  For the US, it was a play in three acts that ended with them punching a ticket to Qatar. 

Act I - Should Have Been Dos A Cero

Estadio Azteca has never been a friendly place for the USMNT; usually they leave with their tails between their legs or wondering how the heck they came away with a draw.  This time, the US were arguably the better side.  Pulisic missed a good chance and Pefok missed an even better one late in the match.  This is also not your father's scary Mexico team. Though the play didn't even generate a shot on goal, my favorite clip from the match, this week's YouTubeableMoment, was Gio Reyna's solo run. Stuff like this is what we've been hoping to see from the US team.

The implications of the 0-0 were clear; because of a better goal differential, a win over Panama would mean the US could go into the final match with Costa Rica knowing all they had to do was avoid a blow-out loss.

Act II - Mission Not Quite Accomplished

Pulisic's hat trick vs Panama all but clinched a WC spot
AP Photo/Julio Cortez

This went about as well as it could.  A 2-0 lead within 23 minutes. 3-0 at halftime.  A 5-1 final.  Check out this Pulisic goal here as Exhibit B of the type of soccer that might allow the US to have an impact on the international stage.  Additional good news included Costa Rica only beating El Salvador 2-1, meaning the goal differential had increased to 10 and it would take a six goal loss on Wednesday for the US to fall to fourth. The final score doesn't show that there were some scary moments in the first half.  Some sloppy play could have kept the first half margin tight and who knows if the rout continues at that point.  And rolling out a banner that said "Qualified" was a touch premature.  But it was a good night.

Act III - We Know the Way to Lose in San Jose

This place has actually been a tougher venue than Azteca for the USMNT.   They didn't play all that badly.  On the other hand, they still lost 0-2.  This felt like backing into WC qualification.  Of course, that's a little unfair given that the US earned the third WC spot based on their performance over the 14 match octagonal process.   But the margin was incredibly slim.  Turn one of the four draws into a loss and they don't make it.  Turn some of the routs into closer wins and they don't make it.  It's better than not qualifying obviously but unless we see more of that Reyna and Pulisic stuff, this does not feel like a team ready to make a deep run at the World Cup.  

No World Cup For You! Come Back, Four Years

Italy will miss the World Cup again (Photo AP)

Some countries were not as lucky as the US. They include top 20 teams like:

Italy (6th) - beaten by North Macedonia in playoff

Sweden (17th) - beaten by Poland in playoff

Colombia (19th)- 6th in CONMEBOL qualifying

Other notable absences will be Chile, Egypt and Algeria.  Given that the final is going to be expanded to 48 teams for 2026, this is probably the last time a top 20 team fails to make it to the final. 

Groups of Death, Pestilence and Plague

The WC draw is Friday at noon (EDT).  The process is explained here.  Next week we'll take a look at who got lucky and who got screwed.

Turning from WC stuff, we review other action from two weekends ago.  Except I can hardly remember the matches at this point.

We Love VAR Chapter 53

The Flyers beat the Rangers, er, I mean Union beat NYCFC 2-0 at Yankee Stadium.  Bedoya put the Union up early but NYCFC looked to be ready to 1) level things with a PK and 2) play the rest of the match a man up after Elliott was called for DOGSO. Real time I thought the call was flat out wrong and was likely to be overturned; the replay only reinforced that view.  But it also brought in a second possibility - that Rodriguez had handled the ball first, making Elliott's actions irrelevant.  And that is exactly how the referee saw it.  You can see the play here.  And just like at Montreal, they scored within minutes of the action restarting after the VAR took away an opposition goal, with Gazdag netting a perfect pass from Harriel.  I have a vague recollection of Harriel also clearing a shot off the line with his head.  Easily the best 90 minutes the Union have put together this year, with even the NY commentators conceding the Union defense is difficult to break down.

Overall a very nasty feel to the match.  A hockey game nearly broke out in the 72nd minute.  A bit surprising that only Wagner and Castellanos got yellows but maybe good refereeing to not make more out of it than necessary.  I guess it's a good thing that this rivalry is developing.  The win moved the Union to the top spot in the East.

What If They Had FA Cup Quarterfinals and I Didn't Watch?

The results still count.  Also, I did see most of Crystal Palace's 4-0 rout of Everton.  Chelsea jumped on Middlesbrough quickly and cruised to a 2-0 win.  Man City took their time but eventually pounded Southampton 4-1.  Against Nottingham Forest, Liverpool trotted out a line up without Salah and Mane and didn't score until the 78th minute, walking away with a quiet 1-0 win.  

So, after roughly 732 matches that began back in August, we have whittled the competition down to the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 12th place teams in the Premiership.  The quarters were six EPL and two Championship Divisions.  I know we hear about those magic moments in the FA Cup and minnows making deep runs but in the end, it usually winds up looking something like this.   

Remember the EPL?

They had a limited schedule two weeks ago because of the FA Cup quarterfinals.  Wolves did Newcastle and other relegation rivals no favor by coughing up a two goal lead to fall to Leeds 2-3.  Aston Villa did their usual thing, proving they can stay on the pitch with pretty much any team in the league without getting a result.  This time it was 0-1 to Arsenal.  Leicester slipped past Brentford 2-1.  The most important match of that weekend was Tottenham's 3-1 win over West Ham.  Spurs were up 2-0 early but the Hammers got one back late in thr first half.  The match stayed close until the end when Son got his second of the day to salt it away.  The loss leaves West Ham essentially out of the Champions League chase.  Tottenham are still a long shot but the win measurably improved their odds.

Resetting everybody for the run-in, here's the table.  Man City and Liverpool will battle it out for the title.  Chelsea look secure for the third CL spot while Arsenal have a leg up on Spurs and Man United for the final CL spot but have work to do to protect that berth.  At the other end, the Canaries in a coal mine is an apt description of Norwich - hard to see them making it out.  Watford are not far behind (ahead?).  Burnley, Everton and Leeds - in that order - are the leading candidates for the third spot.  Brentford and Newcastle are very likely safe but do need to be careful during the run-in.  Newcastle, for example, have four matches against top six sides but also have Norwich and Burnley.     

Back to Business

A lot of dark orange on the 538 match predictions, which means maybe not the tightest of match-ups.  Liverpool hosting Watford (Saturday 7:30 USA), Man City at Burnley (Sat 10 Peacock) and Chelsea hosting Brentford (Sat 10 on USA) are prime examples.  Arsenal at Crystal Palace (Monday at 3 on USA)and Tottenham hosting Newcastle (Sunday 11:30 USA)  round out the fixtures for the current top five.  Wait, add in Man United hosting Leicester (Sat 12:30 USA) and West Ham - Everton (Sunday 9 USA) and none of the top seven sides are looking at projected win percentages worse than 50%.  

Newcastle will be looking for a full shift
from ASM - but it probably won't be enough

We will of course be taking in Spurs - Newcastle at 11:30 on Sunday on USA; hard to see anything good coming out of that one.  Of the five Saturday 10 am matches, we recommend Wolves - Aston Villa (Saturday at 10 on CNBC).  The only bad thing here is that nothing is on the line; well maybe Wolves still have chance for one of the less European competitions.  Still, I'd look for a fun game; 538 has it as a dead heat.  The other 10 am match that could be wild is Leeds - Southampton on Peacock; that should be freewheeling as well.  Much better than say, Brighton - Norwich.

Wednesday we have Burnley - Everton which is great because one or both of these teams behind Newcastle are going to drop points.

Intriguing Champions League action midweek.  Tuesday is Benfica - Liverpool and Man City - Atletico Madrid while Wednesday is Villareal - Bayern and Chelsea - Real Madrid.  We'll probably go with the City - AM and Chelsea - RM matches.  A little surprised that 538 has City and Chelsea as such big favorites..

The Union are also back at home against the expansion team Charlotte.  We shouldn't get ahead of ourselves but 538 has the Union with 64% chance of win and 24% chance of draw.  Gotta like those odds.  

So, basically back to full-time football viewing after a slow couple of weeks.