Blackouts, Drones and Red Carded Managers

But that's not the weird part.  No, the weird part is Newcastle won their match with Leeds.  That was one of several we got wrong last week here at BFS.  This is not necessary a bad thing. We also did get some things spot on.

DW=WD

Shelvey's free kick was the difference at Leeds

So we end up drawing Watford at home but beating Leeds away.  Though not how we planned it, the equation shows that it's four points either way.  While still firmly entrenched in the relegation zone, especially given that most of the others have games in hand, the signs of life are encouraging.

As the 1-0 final indicates, this was not a thumping of Leeds but nor was it a "smash and grab."  The goal (seen here) was on the lucky side.  As expected, Leeds dominated possession but other stats were close; xG was 1.5 - 1.35 favor of the Magpies.  Watching live, this was much more encouraging than the Watford contest, with the defense looking much tighter.  Much work to be done but definitely a happier weekend.

Six Percent More of a Title Race

Southampton fail to "fermez Laporte" and Man City level
 the match at 1-1 (Photo by Glyn KIRK / AFP)

Contrary to our prediction in last week's post, Southampton did put a dent in Man City's title hopes. But how big a dent?  I realize the USA studio crew has to talk up their product but they were awfully quick to say the title race was back on after Man City could only manage a 1-1 draw at Southampton while Liverpool were disposing of Crystal Palace 3-1.  Yes, that was two dropped points. Still means they've taken 37 of the last 39 on offer.  Yes, Liverpool has a game in hand versus Leeds and assuming the Reds win that, the lead would be down to six points.  Let's check in at 538 to see how their prediction of Man City's chances have changed over recent weeks.  Before the weekend, the model had Man City at 88% and Liverpool at 12%.  After the draw, City's chances dropped to 82% with Liverpool moving up to 17%.  Doesn't feel like a major shift in the odds to me.

Power Failure at Watford

Hoo boy, talk about your metaphors.  Norwich were already up a goal in the relegation six-pointer with Watford when the lights went out at Vicarage Road.  Well, not all of them.  Actually, it didn't even look all that dark.  In fact, after a while, everybody agreed to continue.  But things just got worse for Watford.  American Josh Sargent, who scored the first goal on a "bet you can't do that again goal" (seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment), added a second.  Dennis got sent off with his second yellow.  Norwich added a third in stoppage time to complete the 3-0 pasting.  We'll happily admit that we got this one wrong.

The loss also proved to be lights out for Claudio Ranieri, who himself was an in-season replacement all the way back in October.  He'll be replaced by Roy Hodgson, last seen at Selhurst Park managing Crystal Palace.  The major talking point for him is that he has never suffered relegation in the Premier League.  Neither has Pep Guardiola but Hodgson's degree of difficulty is much higher having worked with the likes of Fulham, Crystal Palace and West Brom.  This one looks bleak until you consider that 1) he takes over just two points from safety and 2) he probably only needs to beat Burnley, Norwich, Newcastle to avoid the drop.  Maybe throw Everton in there too.  Not saying it's going to be easy but it definitely could be worse.

If It Quacks Like A Draw

It's a draw.  Last week we suggested that Leicester-Brighton looked like the very definition of a tie.  The final was 1-1.  The stats, other than maybe possession couldn't be closer; possession was 44/56, shots were 15/14, shots on target were 5/5 and corners were 4/5. Expected goals were 1.6-1.4.  Brighton were down 0-1 but a late goal from Danny Welbeck gave us the seemingly inevitable result.  

So Brighton go into the winter break with just the four losses.  The bad news is that they only have six wins.  They aren't losing but they aren't winning either and therefore have a league high 12 draws.  

Aston Villa Continue to Climb

Another one we got "right' was Villa taking all three points at Everton.  This was not a thing of beauty and there's an argument to be made that the Villans were lucky to come away with the 1-0 win.  Stats have a slight Everton edge, including xG at 1.55-.9. They actually looked better against Man United the previous week than they did at Goodison Park as the Toffees suffocated Aston Villa's attack.  Buendia's header goal in first half stoppage time was the difference.  Forgetting how it looked, this is a win that Villa wasn't usually able to pull off until Gerrard got there.

A quick word on Buendia's goal.  You can see it here, but our focus is more on Jon Champion's quick criticism of Buendia's celebration and the behavior of some of the Everton fans. We are big fans of Champion's work in the booth but we think he got this one wrong (Tim Howard back in the studio agreed).  First, it was not all that provocative a celebration.  Second, exactly where is he supposed to go?  Third, nothing - nothing - justifies throwing crap at the players on the field.  Not been a good year at Goodison Park and this was another stain.  

Concussions, Drones and Red Cards

Injuries plus a drone equals 19 minutes of first half stoppage time

Wrapped up as we were with Newcastle, we did not get to see weirdness at Brentford as the Bees took on Wolves.  A nasty collision in the first half required a lengthy stoppage and two concussion subs for Brentford.  The match was then interrupted by the appearance of a drone over the stadium.  Those who took the over on first half stoppage time at 18 minutes were winners (see picture).

There were problems with the referees communication system that delayed the start of the second half.  Then there was the VAR incident in which Peter Bankes stopped play to show the Wolves Toti a red card.  Lee Mason suggest Bankes review and he changed his mind.  But that wasn't what annoyed Brentford; they felt that Bankes should have played advantage there as the Bees were on the attack.  However, the advice to referees is that if it's a red card foul, you only continue if there is a "clear opportunity to score." Sure the Bees were had a promising attack but there were at least four Wolves defenders in the box so this was no obvious goal scoring opportunity.  Then Wolves had a goal in stoppage time ruled out for offside.

The fun did not end with the final whistle.  There were some "discussions" between a few of the Wolves and Brentford players.  Brentford manager Thomas Frank appeared to "insert" himself into those discussions.  I'm not entirely sure but I believe he got a yellow for his behavior there, then got a second yellow for his comments to Bankes after getting the first yellow.  Yeah, not his best day.  And a 2-1 win for Wolves.

No Mo'

Seems that Chelsea have Spurs number this year.  We thought maybe the crazy mid-week comeback against Leicester was going to spark Tottenham but that did not happen and Chelsea clearly deserved the 2-0 win.  Not helpful for Spurs was Marcus Rashford's 93rd minute goal that allowed Man United to steal all three points against West Ham.  A 0-0 draw there would have been perfect.  Their situation however was helped by Arsenal's 0-0 draw with Burnley; I sped through the DVR of that one to see that the Gunners pretty well dominated but could not break through.  

Man United's win gets them fourth place for the moment but only by one over West Ham and two over Arsenal and Tottenham.  Again, games in hand tend to complicate the analysis but basically if you take those into account, you might conclude that Spurs are actually in a pretty good place.  Also note that the two biggest gaps in the table continue to be between 1st and 2nd (nine points) and 3rd and 4th (also nine points).

Like Forecasting Snowstorms in Philly

Following the January transfer window has been like tracking winter storm forecasts - anything information that's more than four hours old is probably useless.  One minute it looks like we'll get Lingard, the next minute we're getting a coating rather than 5 inches of snow.  Now I hear we're getting Thomas Muller and 18 inches of snow.  WTF?  

I did get excited about the prospect of getting Bruno Guimaraes from Lyon based on reports that he was getting a medical.  Then Lyon angrily denied that anything had been agreed to.  Here's an incredibly ridiculous statement from the website Geordie Boot Boys:

It appears that an agreement with Lyon is all that separates Newcastle and Guimaraes. It has previously been reported that he is keen on a move to St James’ Park.

Yes, and all that separates Ukraine and Russia from settling their differences is an agreement to even talk to each other.  Okay, to be fair, the second required part of a transfer - that the player wants to move to the new team -  doesn't appear to be an issue.  Shortly before posting, news came in that the deal for Guimaraes was sealed.  This looks good for the Magpies - a 24 year-old defensive midfielder who's been averaging a 7.15 rating in 20 Ligue 1 matches this year.

The window closes on Monday.  Still holding out hope for a center back (Marcao from Galatasary?) and attacking midfielder would make the window complete.

Fuzzy Math

Looking at the table after the Match Week 23 results were in, I was puzzled that there was Chelsea with 24 matches played.  Huh?  How does that happen?  First, Chelsea have not had any matches postponed due to Covid-19.  Second, because of their scheduled participation in the FIFA World Club Cup (WCC) in February, their match with Brighton was moved up to January 18.  Diving into Chelsea's calendar a little further, they have six fixtures in February and just one league match,  February 5th is FA Cup against Plymouth, the 9th is the WCC semi, the 12th is the WCC final (or 3rd place match), the 19th is EPL vs Crystal Palace, the 22nd is first leg of Champions League Round of 16 vs Lille, and they conclude the month on the 27th with the Carabao Cup Final against Liverpool.  They have been and will be a busy squad.  Wait a minute.  Right now, they are technically in the running for five possible trophies - the EPL (well, at least not mathematically eliminated yet), the WCC, the Champions League, the Carabao Cup and the Champions League.

Union Hot Stove 

Our phonetic phavorite, Catspurr shuhBILLkoh, has left the Union for Chicago. Mixed feelings but on balance this is probably the right thing for both sides.  He was somewhat annoyed at not getting guaranteed contracts like some of the others.  On the other hand, we can recall that along with the goals came extended scoring droughts.  Just hope he doesn't beat the crap out of us when we face the Fire.

The club wasted no time in bringing in a replacement, as today they announced the signing of Mikael Uhre from Brondby of the Danish top division. Detailed article on Uhre can be had here.  Checking him out at whoscored.com, I see this season he has scored 11 goals in 16 Danish Superliga games.  I do note that he's only played the full 90 minutes three times in those 16 matches.  But in sum, it looks like a great move for the Union.

Here's To You Mr. Robinson (apologies to Simon and Garfunkel and hat tip to John Champion)

Antonee Robinson got the only goal in US v El Salvador

The US Men's National Team did not wow anybody Thursday night but did come away with a 1-0 thanks to a timely goal from Antonee Robinson.  This was a rather ragged affair, with the El Salvardoran press making life difficult for the US.  There were fouls a plenty - 18 for the US, 17 for El Salvador.  The good news is the US allowed only six shots, none on target.  Still, they will have to put up a better performance if they want a result against Canada on Sunday afternoon.

Quiet weekend ahead which will allow us to focus on the Millrose Games.

We're Gonna Need a Bigger Sympathy Card

Newcastle get a draw in a must-win match.  Late game heroics in several of the other matches.  I am forced to conclude that while all draws are worth one point, they are not equal.  Man City continue to play in a League of Their Own.  And, the EPL is set for a two-week break.

Won't Get There at This Rate

Chris Wood sums up his Newcastle debut with one look

Newcastle didn't exactly play with the desperation of a team that has little time left to make a push to get out of the drop zone.  Sure, the first half against Watford was okay, including a shot off the cross bar by Joe L Linton and newcomer Chris Wood had a few chances.  But you wouldn't say it was overwhelming.  Another basically individual effort from Allen Saint-Maximin early in the second half did get the Magpies a slim lead.  From there, things were pretty bad. For the rest of the match, Watford were able to ghost past the Newcastle defense at will.  Dennis, though well past his prime a shadow of his former self having maybe lost a step, thought he might have gotten by them once or twice.  Plus, we were more than happy to make not just errant passes but passes right to Watford players.  The tying goal was inevitable.  That it came in the 87th minutes with three points in sight is frustrating for sure but Newcastle clearly did not do enough to earn the win here.  At home against the 4th worst defense in the league, they could only manage a single goal and just one shot on target.  No, everything says the 1-1 draw was the "right" result.

Looking at the glass as 1/100ths full, at least they did not lose the match so they remain just two points behind Watford.  Kieran Trippier is definitely helping out; Chris Wood, though he didn't have a great game, shows some promise of being able to generate some scoring chances.  Also, we have to believe that the poor defensive showing will lead the new ownership that they really have no choice but to overpay for at least one new center back.  And add another midfielder please - ASM can't do this alone.      

No Help From Others

Norwich broke their scoring drought with two early tallies against Everton.  We note that the first was actually an own goal from Michael Keane.  The Toffees got one back but the final was 2-1.  Thanks guys.  Though I didn't see the match, the stats say maybe Everton were a bit unlucky.  In any case, the result was enough to get Rafa Benitez sacked.  They are just six points above the drop zone and in total disarray.  That's a post mortem I may need to investigate.  What happened to this franchise?  A quick look at game-by-game says it doesn't look like bad luck based on expected goals.  Certainly the defense is suspect.  In their last five matches they've managed to lose to Norwich, Crystal Palace and Brighton but beat Arsenal and draw with Chelsea.  Puzzling indeed.

Meanwhile, a hat trick by Jack Harrison (don't worry if you don't recognize the name) gave Leeds all three points in a 3-2 win over West Ham.  I ended up watching this over the Liverpool - Brentford match and it was highly entertaining for the neutral, with the Hammers rallying to tie the match twice.  Would have been entertaining if not for the fact that the win put Leeds 10 points ahead the Magpies.

I'm sure some expression about helping those who help themselves applies here but I can't remember exactly what it is.

Somewhere the Sun Is Shining

Jacob Ramsey halves the deficit against Man United
Photo by Matthew Ashton - AMA/Getty Images

One of those somewheres would be Birmingham.  We thought Aston Villa could give Man United a tough time and they did, though they waited a while to do it.  They even spotted the Red Devils an early goal, an incredible mistake from the usually reliable Martinez.  They slowly built back into the match and at worst played the visitors even from there.  Except a sloppy giveaway and a Fernandes shot from the top of the box at 67 minutes put the Villa in a big 0-2 hole.  With the introduction of Philippe Coutinho right after that, all did not seem hopeless.  Sure enough Coutinho provided the buildup play that led to Jacob Ramsey's first goal of the season.  Now a draw seemed eminently doable and the tying goal indeed followed within four minutes.  Check out the passes from Buendia to Ramsey and Ramsey to Coutinho that led to the equalizer - an easy call for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  They gave Coutinho Player of the Match but for me it was Ramsey.  The whole thing was a great antidote to what had transpired in the 10 am games.  This was at minimum what Villa deserved; in fact they edged United in several key stats - shots on goal, possession, expected goals.

We are Targett fans but Lucas Digne is probably an improvement at left back.  Coutinho looks like he will fit in well, possibly raising Buendia's game to the level we think it could be.  Geez, maybe not this year but with Steven Gerrard, these new additions, and maybe a couple more transfers (holding midfielder maybe?), this team can make some noise.

Bergwijn probably not headed for Ajax now
Photo: Action Images via Reuters

Another of those somewheres would be Leicester, though not for the home side.  After pretty much
outplaying the host Foxes, Tottenham found themselves down late.  A shot off the cross bar, two cleared off the line by defenders, that kind of day.  So the match enters stoppage time with the score 2-1.  From there it becomes the Steven Bergwijn show as he scores twice in the final minutes to allow Tottenham to grab all three points.  This would be the same Bergwijn possibly on his way to Ajax in the January window.  Check out the game highlights here (hat tip Michael B).  The video supports the stats that say this was actually no less than Spurs deserved here; xG was 3.65 - 1.45.  And they now sit fifth in the table, one point behind West Ham with three (!) games in hand.  Getting greedy, Spurs fans might note that they have four games in hand over Chelsea and wins in all would move them ahead of the Blues and into third. 

Reality Did Not Disappoint

I love it when actual results do not spoil a BFS talking point.  I'm sure the TV guys don't read the blog but they pointed out multiple times during the Brighton - Chelsea match that the Seagulls have fewer losses than any but the top three sides.  The good news is that it stayed that way, though late game heroics were required in both of Brighton's fixtures this week.  They pushed Crystal Palace all over the place on Friday but were still down a goal late.  Continued pressure led to an own goal from Palace and though less than maybe they deserved, Brighton at least got a 1-1 draw out of that one.  Back home against Chelsea on Tuesday, they perhaps had the run of play, or at least played the Blues even. Check out the goal from Webster here that tied the match.  Stats again say, at minimum, Brighton earned a draw.  Back when Newcastle had to fight off Brighton for relegation this might have pissed me off but this year the Seagulls are so far ahead I was able to revel in the result.

A League of One

Man City did not exactly take Chelsea apart but the 1-0 win was enough to give them a 13 point cushion over the Blues. Chelsea only managed one shot on target.  Liverpool's win on Sunday reduced the gap between first and second down to a mere 11 points.  Surely, the title race is over?  Maybe, and please don't call me Shirley.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Graham: Newcastle - Watford is a decidedly ugly match so I am choosing to do chores

Steve: Watching Newcastle is a chore

Another Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis: This is weird, Ronaldo is being subbed out for Maguire

Steve: No, it's like for like.  One player I don't like being replaced by another player I don't like

Maybe This Is Why They Spend So Much Time Rolling Around on the Ground in Pain

Unless you were paying close attention to Newcastle - Watford (and seriously, why would you have been?), you might have missed referee Paul Tierney retrieve and hand something back to a Watford player.  About the size of a cell phone, it turned out to be one of the player's shin guards.  Well geez, no wonder it hurts when you get kicked.  Might as well stick an index card in your socks.  To quote Ted Lasso, "why y'all even bother?"

Fun With Statistics

Last week we posted a graph with EPL Covid testing results, showing the late December - January spike.  The graph was based on information from this site.  Some observers might say, wait a minute, of course the number of positives increased because look at the number of tests.  So is the spike just a function of increased testing and not an increased presence of the virus?  For two reasons, I think it's real.  First, look at the positivity rates.  Even accounting for increased testing, the rate of positive tests is still higher in every week in December and January than November.  

Second, though I can't confirm this, I have to believe that the increased number of tests is based on players getting tested more frequently (three times a week instead of once?), not that more people are getting tested.  That would mean that the incidence per player did in fact jump in December.  As in, if the population getting tested is unchanged but the number of positive tests in that population increase,  it's not a function of increased testing.  The good news is the positivity rate is declining again.

Another Six Pointer

Interesting stuff up and down the table, including a second straight "must-win" match for Newcastle against Leeds.  The problem with this one is that realistically, a draw would be about as good as we can expect out of trip to Elland Road, especially since there will likely be no help coming on the defensive front via the transfer window before Saturday's match.  This could be a high scoring affair, at least for one side.

The weekend begins with a Relegation Special on Friday afternoon at 3 on USA featuring Watford  and Norwich.  Unfortunately for Newcastle, while the best result would be a draw, the Hornets are likely to get all three here.  We'll be getting up early Saturday for Saturday, Everton - Aston Villa (7:30 Peacock), which 538 says is close but should it be?  This is another "statement" match for Villa.  Sure it's at Goodison Park but you have to believe that these are two teams heading in opposite directions and a draw would be a disappointing result for Villa

Three 10 am matches and you have to question USA's choice here.  There's an excellent battle for fourth going on and two of the contenders - West Ham and Man United - play at 10.  So why is that match shunted to Peacock to make room for Leeds - Newcastle?  Brentford -Wolves (Peacock) is your third alternative.  The NBC feature at 12:30 is Southampton - MCI; hard to see the Saints putting a dent in Man City's title hopes.

Sunday is a mixed bag.  Three are at 9 am.   Arsenal should be able to handle Burnley, who might be a little rusty.  Ditto for Liverpool and  Crystal Palace, even if it's at Selhurst Park.  Then there's Leicester - Brighton, which at King Power looks like the very definition of an even match up.  That's probably the one we'll watch.  The weekend closes with a London derby between Chelsea and Spurs.  Chelsea have had trouble winning in league play of late but they did beat Tottenham in both legs of the Carabao Cup semi-final.  We'll see if Spurs get momentum from the crazy win at Leicester.

Then we pause, at least for the EPL, for a two-week winter break.  But despair not, for CONCACAF WC qualifying resumes for three matches during the break.  The USMNT have a home match vs El Salvador (1/27 at 7:30), an away fixture with Canada (1/30 at 3:05) and another home game with Honduras (2/2 at 7:30).  Looks like the US better get a minimum of seven points from these three fixtures.    

Okay, it's not what we're used to but it's not like there won't be anything to watch.

PS - Carabao Cup final will be Chelsea - Liverpool after the Reds beat Arsenal 2-0 in the second leg of their semi-final.  Final will be February 27th.

Embarrassing But Irrelevant

Is how Dennis described FA Cup losses by Newcastle - and other Premier League sides - to lower tier teams.  Some transfer news to go with mid-week league and League Cup games so there's much to talk about.

It Pays To Increase Your Word Power

be·reft

/bəˈreft/

Learn to pronounce

adjective

1. 1.

   deprived of or lacking (something).
2. 
   

Newcastle were not beaten by guy in a wheelchair

As in, Newcastle were bereft of quality in the final third against League One Cambridge.  They had plenty of chances in the first half but couldn't convert.  To be fair, some of that was due to good saves by the Cambridge keeper Dimitar Mitov - as in that shot "might of" gone in if not for some solid work by the keeper.  As the match wore on, it seemed like the chances became fewer and fewer.  The stats say Newcastle dominated the match but that's not what it looked like to me.  Eventually Cambridge broke through on a goal by Ironside  (the player, not the 60's TV detective) in the 56th minute; the initial attack was good but the play was not cleaned up well and Newcastle paid for it.  I recall a few good chances in closing minutes but also the feeling that they could have played for three days and still not scored.

Early departures from the FA Cup are not new to the Magpies.  This one is more distressing in that their play against a clearly inferior side revealed continuing weaknesses that, if not addressed, will surely end in relegation.  And please don't call me Shirley.

FA Cup Round Three By the Numbers

Newcastle were not the only top tier side to fall in this round.  Overall, Premier League sides were 14-6 this weekend.  Three of those get a pass of sorts in that they lost to other Premier League teams - Leeds to West Ham, Watford to Leicester and Aston Villa to Man United.  That excuse is not available to Burnley, who fell 1-2 to Huddersfield and Arsenal who lost 0-1 to Nottingham Forest.  At least those are Championship Division clubs, not like Cambridge.

Speaking of the Championship Division, they were 12-12 in this round.  League One went 3-5 while League Two was 1-7.  The four "non-league" sides still in went a respectable 2-2.  This included sixth tier Kidderminster Harriers (and who doesn't like a Harrier?) beating Championship Division Reading. 

By my count there were nine upsets.  Some were more upsetting than others.  We can rank teams by their position in their league (i.e. EPL teams are 1-20, Championship 21-44, League One 45-68, League Two 69-92, National League 93-115, National League - North 116 and higher).  For example, Cambridge is currently in 16th in League One so 20 top tier teams plus 24 second tier teams plus 16 equals 60.  We can then order the upsets by the degree of their upsettingness:

79 - Kidderminster (120) over Reading (41)

52 - Hartlepool (84) over Blackpool (32)

41 - Cambridge (60) over Newcastle (19)

35 - Boreham Wood (98) over AFC Wimbledon (63)

26 - Wigan (48) over Blackburn (22) 

25 - Nottingham Forest (29) over Arsenal (4)

12 - Plymouth (50) over Birmingham (38)

  8 - Huddersfield (26) over Burnley (18)

  6 - Cardiff (40) over Preston (34)

Take Huddersfield over Burnley.  The Clarets are looking at relegation from the top tier while Huddersfield are in the hunt for promotion from the second division so it's not a stunning upset.  Cardiff are just six spots behind Preston in the Championship Division so that barely qualifies as a surprise.  On the other hand, there are three entire divisions between Kidderminster and Reading (League One, League Two, and National League).  Newcastle's loss kinda stands out here too. 

How Did I Get There?

Yours truly in London cheering Morecambe as they
attempted to upset Tottenham

BFS Travel Consultant Jeff K noted that somehow I (well, a much younger version of me) made it to London for Spurs versus Morecambe.  I have no recollection of how I got there, or even being there.  Which is a shame because for the Morecambe fans, this was a pretty good day.  The League One Shrimps (local seafood specialty) carried a 1-0 lead late into the match.  Around 70 minutes, Spurs manager Conte said enough of this sh stuff and put in Kane, Moura and Skipp.  Within minutes they had the equalizer and added two more at 85 and 88 minutes.  So the Shrimps fans left London with a loss but probably great memories of the time they lea Tottenham until very late in an FA Cup match.  

Forest Green Sightings

The Third Round of the FA Cup continues to be fun for me as it a chance to see some of my Football Manager players in action.  This weekend, there were four current members of my Forest Green roster playing for various lower tier sides. 

- Adam May - Center mid - Cambridge
- Perry Ng - Right back - Cardiff

- Leif Davis - Left back - Bournemouth

- Liam Kitching - Left back - Barnsley

Adam May bedeviled Newcastle all day and
helped set up the winning goal

I couldn't find a reliable source for player ratings but I note that all four were on the winning side.  I saw Ng (pronounced EN-ja) and he looked competent if not spectacular.  Obviously I saw May in action against Newcastle; he created problems for Newcastle in the No. 10 role and had an integral part in the goal. Ya done good guys.

Desperately Seeking Striker

Saturday's performance against Cambridge aptly demonstrated that the Magpies won't survive the two months without Callum Wilson.  Credit to the Newcastle management for quick action.  They triggered the release clause for Burnley striker Chris Wood by making a bid somewhere in the £20-25 million range.  By triggering the clause, Burnley have no say in the matter and it was merely a question of whether Newcastle and Wood can work out the terms.  Which they did.

Viewed from a financial perspective, this is a terrible deal, reeking of desperation.  The website TransferMkt has Wood's current value at £6.6 million so Newcastle are paying maybe three times his market value.  But circumstances don't allow Newcastle to wait even a week to fill the vacancy and the sure way to deal with that is to trigger a release clause rather than getting into a back-and-forth negotiation over the transfer fee.  Let's focus on what Wood offers - a serviceable target striker with a history of double figure goals in the Premier League.  Desperate times call for stupid financial decisions.

As if to affirm the move for Wood, progress on a center back and midfielder continues to languish.  Botman is out.  Newcastle have submitted another bid for Sevilla's Diego Carlos; it's still not clear to me that Carlos is even interested in leaving Sevilla, let along go to Newcastle.  [As I was putting this issue to bed, I saw that Man United have offered Donnie van de Beek on loan and Carlos is now saying he'd be interested in a move to Newcastle.  Trippier, Wood, van de Beek and Carlos would be a satisfactory January window.]

Meanwhile Dennis is basking in the news from Birmingham.  Aston Villa have signed Philippe Coutinho on loan with an option to buy and look to have wrapped up a deal for former Magpie transfer target Lucas Digne.  So they added a creative attacker and depth to the back line.  That's a good January right there.  

New Product Line for Hallmark UK

After numerous texts to me throughout this season offering condolences on how bad my Newcastle are, Dennis has come up with an idea that should be a money maker - football sympathy cards.  Here's his first demo (right).   Set up menus to choose themes, team images, scores and messages; sounds like a winner.  Remember your old man when you get rich off this.

COVID and AFCON

We noted the pre-Christmas spike in positive COVID tests.  As the graph below illustrates, it got worse.

Numbers for last week were not available at press time.  Compounding the problem of fielding a team in January is players away on international duty for the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON), which runs from January 9 to February 6. A full list of players called up can be had here. Note that some teams are affected more than others.  For example Liverpool lose Salah, Mane and Keita; Leicester lose Amartey, EatANacho, Mendy and Ndidi; Crystal Palace lose Ayew, Kouyate and Zaha.  Newcastle on the other hand, lose none.  The last match day of group play is Thursday 1/20; depending on whether they played, travel arrangements and COVID protocols, some players could be back for the games of 1/22 but that seems like a long shot.

The Revolution Better Start Now (apologies to Steve Earle)

This could be me watching Newcastle - Watford

Newcastle's first league match of 2022 couldn't be more critical - home to relegation rival Watford Saturday at 10 am (on USA, recognizing that relegation battle soccer can be compelling).  This is the epitome of a six-pointer; win and the Magpies jump ahead of Watford, lose and they fall five points behind the Hornets who have a game in hand.  So freakin' scary I might not be able to watch (see left).

Lots of good stuff this weekend.  Early start to action with a Friday 3 pm match featuring Brighton - Crystal Palace; the Seagulls will be solid favorites at home but this could be a decent match anyway and besides how good does it have to be to get you to watch on a Friday afternoon.  

Big doings early Saturday as first plays second when Man City host Chelsea at 7:30 on Peacock.  City have won eleven straight in the EPL and bring a 10 point lead over the Blues to the match.  Doesn't sound hopeful.  Four choices at 10 but as mentioned above, we'll be cowering behind the covers watch ing Newcastle.  A better choice for neutrals might be Wolves - Southampton.  Your other options are Burnley - Leicester and Norwich - Everton.   After Wednesday's 2-0 loss at West Ham, Norwich have now gone six straight league matches without scoring a goal.  With allowances for stoppage time (plus the last 11 minutes of the Newcastle match), this puts the Canaries well over 9 hours since their last goal.  For perspective, you could watch all three Lord of the Ring movies (theatrical versions, not extended) in that time.

The feature NBC match at 12:30 is of interest to us as Aston Villa host Man United.  Villa are fresh off an annoying 0-1 loss to those same Red Devils in Monday's FA Cup match; they gave up an early goal, then pretty much looked they had a chance to win the rest of the way.  Add Coutinho and maybe Digne and this could be fun.

Sunday includes a North London derby with Tottenham hosting Arsenal at 11:30 on Peacock  Recall the last one didn't go too well for Spurs as they were down 0-3 in about 30 minutes.  Conte has them playing better so we're hoping for a more competitive contest.  Two games at 9 am to warm you up for the derby - Liverpool - Brentford (USA) and West Ham - Leeds (Peacock)

Don't forget the mid-week COVID make up games.  Tuesday has relegation rivals Burnley - Watford (2:30) and Brighton - Chelsea (3 pm); we've been telling you for weeks about how Brighton has fewer losses than all but the top three so here's their chance on the big stage.  Wednesday features Leicester - Tottenham (2:30 on USA) and Brentford - Man United ( 3 pm on Peacock).

And Thursday's not open either.  Arsenal will host Liverpool in the second leg of the Carabao Cup semi.  They'll go into that 0-0, which is a surprise, especially given that Arsenal played about 66 minutes of the first leg down a man after, you guessed it, Granit Xhaka got sent off.  We might give Xhaka a break in that at least this time it wasn't for serious foul play but for DOGSO (though the challenge was probably reckless enough that he would have gotten a yellow.)  Despite the advantage, Liverpool managed just one shot on target.  Might they be missing Salah and Mane'?  For the record, Chelsea managed a second shut out over Spurs in the second leg of the other semi to advance to the final 3-0 on aggregate.

Football every day of the week is fun.

No Newcastle Is Good Newcastle

COVID erased a second consecutive Newcastle match, which means the Magpies did not drop any points this weekend.  Some decent matches for the holiday weekend.

Two high level contests cemented Man City's position as the sole remaining member of A League of Their Own.  City managed a tight 2-1 win over Arsenal while Chelsea and Liverpool battled to a 2-2 draw.   City now has a 10 point lead at the top while Arsenal still trail Liverpool by seven.  These remain the two largest gaps in the EPL table.

Thirty+ minutes of defending a man down is undone
with Rodri's stoppage time goal (Photo: Getty)

Man City did not steam roller Arsenal.  In fact, they trailed the Gunners after Saka's goal at 31 minutes.  City leveled things when a possibly generous VAR awarded a PK on Xhaka at 57 minutes.  Two minutes later Arsenal went down a man after Gabriel got his second yellow.  For all their superior fire power and the man advantage, City didn't do much.  They had no shots on target until the PK.  They didn't put another one on goal until Rodri's game winner in the third minute of stoppage time.  It wasn't all that pretty a goal either.  I'm not saying they didn't deserve all three, but this was an underwhelming performance, especially with the man advantage.  Still, there they are with a 10 point lead.

Sunday's first half between Chelsea - Liverpool might have been the best 45 minutes of action this year.  Mane' got the Reds off to a good start when Chelsea defender Trevoh Chalobah didn't use his head by trying to use his head.  Say what?  You'll have to watch the video at the end of this paragraph to see what I mean.  Salah doubled the lead after taking a pass from Alexander-Arnold, freezing Alonso with a fake, and sneaking the shot past Mendy.  Kovacic got one back with a looping shot that also must be seen to be believed.  And right before half, Pulisic tied things up with a well-placed shot of this own.  The second half couldn't possibly live up to those 45 minutes but there was still some excitement, including a quality save from each keeper.  We'll make this two minute highlight reel this week's YouTubeableMoments.

Villa Fall Flat

And after a great start too.  Aston Villa got an early lead after Buendia made a beautiful spin move to send a through ball to Ings who slotted it past the Bees keeper.  You can see it here.  The Villans played well for a little while longer but then lost the plot, looking "shaky at the back" as Dennis put it.  Soon they paid for it when a nifty shot from Wissa found the back of the net.  The second half was back and forth but that Aston Villa were missing some key offensive players showed.  Mads Roerslev's (former FM Forest Green loanee for me) game winner for Brentford was not a total surprise, though Villa probably deserved a draw.  In a season where relegation is basically off the table and Europe a pipe dream, this was mostly just annoying.  As Dennis noted, this is the type of game they had been winning under Gerrard.  Let's see if it makes them more active in the January transfer window.

Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose

Moutinho's late winner ruined Rangnick's perfect record

The Man United -Wolves match was a great watch for the neutral; actually probably just about everybody but Man United fans likely enjoyed it.  Good action throughout, even without any scoring.  DeGea had some great saves and Phil Jones, returning after an eternity (712 days) away from the game with injuries, cleared a certain goal off the line.  Bruno Fernandes had a shot rattle off the cross-bar.  A late goal from veteran Moutinho allowed Wolves to come away with all three points.

Then things got bad for Man United as "off-field" issues came to the fore, as detailed here. In truth, these aren't new and many have commented on them before.  Rangnick has his work cut out for him.

Help on the Relegation Front?

Norwich had their match postponed too so no movement there.  Burnley fell 1-3 to Leeds; I might have preferred a draw there but at least it wasn't three for the Clarets.  Tottenham took their sweet time in beating Watford.  Spurs did look decent on the pitch and dominated statistically but when 90 minutes rolled around, it was still 0-0.  Fortunately, Sanchez grabbed a game winner in the improbably late 96th minute.  Still goes on the books as three for Spurs and zero for Watford so that's fine.

Should we be including Everton in the relegation discussion?  Getting close.  The Toffees are eight points clear of the drop zone but have struggled after a quick start.  They lost to Brighton 2-3 over the weekend; I didn't see the match but on paper it looks like a draw would have been a fair result. Class, which are the only three teams with fewer losses than Brighton? 

Transfer Window Is Open

By the time you read this, Kieran Trippier will hopefully have been introduced as the newest Magpie.  I like this deal; price seems fair and he can help at the back.   Newcastle may or may not have made an offer for Everton's Lucas Digne.  He clearly wants to leave but it's not as clear that Newcastle is his preferred target.  Beyond that, still lots of names and stories.  When I see a player mentioned, I try to determine three things:

1) Is his current club willing to let him go

2) Has the player indicated he wants to leave his current team

3) Does the player want to come to Newcastle

Of course, we often can't tell the answers from the reports.  But in this media age, if you haven't seen reports that the club is trying to move a player, hard to put much stock in the stories.

FA Cup Weekend

This is the weekend when the Championship Division and Premier League teams enter the FA Cup.  For an explanation of that competition, check out this post from the BFS archives.  The quaint practice of not seeding the teams has once again created a wide range of match-ups such as:

Swindon - Man City

Chelsea - Chesterfield

Liverpool - Shrewsbury

Nottingham Forest - Arsenal

Man United - Aston Villa

One of these things is not like the others.  Newcastle got a favorable draw - Cambridge - but in the past that has not prevented the Magpies from making an early exit.  The action plays out Friday to Monday.  There may be a random match on regular ESPN but mostly you'll need ESPN+ to follow the competition.

For those who still Carabao the League Cup, Spurs are down 0-2 to Chelsea and the Arsenal - Liverpool match was postponed due to COVID.  The second leg of Tottenham - Chelsea is this Wednesday while Arsenal and Liverpool will try to get their first leg completed on Thursday.

Lastly, the matches postponed due to COVID are going to be slipped in as the schedule allows.  You know what this means?!  Mid-week EPL fixtures! Woo-woo. Next Tuesday has Southampton - Brentford and Everton - Leicester and Wednesday features West Ham - Norwich.  Well, I didn't say they'd all be great games.