The Eleven Days of Football

A great ending to the World Cup and now we jump right back into league football.

Meanwhile, Back at the EPL...

Arsenal are top of the table, Newcastle amazingly sit in third while sides with serious pedigree like West Ham, Everton, Southampton and Wolves are in the bottom five.  However, given the World Cup break, there's still more than 60% of the season left as they head into the usual holiday match congestion.

Everybody will get three matches in between Boxing Day and January 5th.  Maybe it's a good thing some of the European sides exited so early from the tournament (looking at you Spain and Belgium).  At least they got a little break.  It is good for the fans though as we will have a game every day in that run except 12/29.

The Emirates, better known to Newcastle fans 
as the Little Shop of Horrors

Scanning the fixtures, I can't say I see a lot of mouth watering match ups.  Everton - Wolves on Boxing Day has important implications for those clubs' struggle to avoid relegation. Leeds - West Ham might fit into that category too.  Based on positions in the table, the highest ranking match of the holiday period is - wait this can't be right - first place Arsenal hosting third place Newcastle on January 3rd?  This fixture is a nightmare of epic proportions for the Magpies.  Take a look at the data.  Since 2010-11 they:

- have lost 10 straight EPL matches on the road to Arsenal, getting outscored 6-29 

- haven't scored at Arsenal since 12/13/14

- are 3-2-17 when we include home matches over those 11 seasons

So forgive me if we're not all ginned up for this one.  A draw would be an amazing result.  The 538 crew has it 52/23/25, which seems about right.  Prior to that clash, Newcastle will travel to Leicester on Boxing Day and face Leeds at home on New Year's Eve.  Those are two winnable matches.

Other matches of note during the holiday period include Chelsea at Man City on 1/5 and Brighton hosting Arsenal on New Year's Eve.  

Dennis's Aston Villa got a tough draw with Liverpool at home on Boxing Day and Spurs in London on New Year's Day.  They will be left to try to salvage something from the holiday period with a home match against Wolves on 1/4.

The full list of fixtures with 538 predictions can be had here.  A lot of dark orange and win probabilities over 50%, indicating a dearth of tight contests.

A Worthy Final

8 goals, including a hat trick in the final, but Mbappe's 
expression seems to say he'd prefer the Championship trophy
 over the Golden Boot [Photo: Carl Recine/Reuters]

Though it took awhile, the WC final evolved into one of the best ever.  Through 80 minutes, there
wasn't much for the French to cheer about.  DiMaria drew a PK at 21 minutes that Messi converted and he then got one for himself at 36 minutes.  Giroud and Dembele were ineffective and gone before the first half ended, Griezmann exited at 71 minutes. Fortunately, Mbappe leveled things in the space of about 90 seconds, first with a PK then a goal from open play.  Onto a marvelous 30 plus minutes of extra time in which both of the stars added one more each - Messi at 108 and Mbappe with another PK at 118.  Both teams managed a few more chances in the remaining minutes of extra time but the whistle blew without another goal.  The bad news is that no one listens to this blog and so they went to PKs rather than playing for a winner from open play for the final.  Argentina prevailed there, 4-2.  The best final I can remember.

"Stunning Football and Endless Controversy"

With those words, Sam Cunningham from i (London-based morning newspaper) summed it up well.  For good or bad, this will go down as one of the best World Cup tournaments ever, at least on the field.  The group stage was full of unexpected twists and turns.  Some of the knockout matches weren't all that great but the final delivered.  Certainly, the dire predictions that the football would suffer in a World Cup hosted by Qatar didn't materialize.  Off the field, well that's another matter of course. Sam Cunningham's full article can be had here.  It's a long read but does feel like a good catalog of the problems. And not all of the fingers should point at Qatar; FIFA may not be as financially corrupt as it used to be but they still specialize in, shall we say, curious decision making.  Some of those are  highlighted here by Rob Dorsett from SkySports.  I can help but be amused by the section that notes how this was the first World Cup during which no UK national was arrested.

I will ask whether you think differently of Qatar as a nation after the tournament.  I certainly don't.  The fact that this was an exciting, competitive World Cup won't cause me to overlook the issues they still have as a country.  The tournament is coming to the US in 2026.  We should expect the same level of scrutiny of how we do as a nation on many of the same issues that were raised in Qatar.

48 Does Not Go Easily Into 32

Speaking of the 2026 World Cup, recall that FIFA approved expanding the field from 32 to 48.  The original proposal was for 16 groups of three teams, with the first and second place teams advancing to a knockout bracket of 32.  It would have taken the tournament from 64 matches to 80 matches but wouldn't require too many extra days and teams that made it to the final four would still only play seven matches in total.  But, anybody who paid attention to the four-day drama of this year's last group stage matches saw what could be lost.  Matt Slater from The Athletic pointed out other problems as well:

There were a few grumbles from European voices about diluting the quality of the tournament, tiring out more players and reducing the value of the various confederations’ regional qualifying competitions, but nobody made much noise about the format’s biggest weakness: the risk of collusion in the final match of the group stage.

For those not seeing the danger — and do not beat yourselves up, the game’s guardians on the FIFA Council apparently missed it, too — if you have groups of three, one team is left watching while the others play. That means the two teams in the group’s third and final fixture will both know what they need to do to proceed, and there is a chance that there could be a mutually beneficial result which sees them both go through, while the watching side goes home.

Smarter heads may eventually prevail.  Two leading options under consideration are 1) 12 groups of four, with the top two in each group plus the eight best third place sides advancing to a 32 team knockout phase or 2) dividing the field in two sections of 24, each with six groups of four, with the top two in each group plus the four best third place teams moving to a 16 team knockout phase, with the winner of each section then meeting in the final.  Either keeps the group stage largely the same as it is now but adds a lot more games to the tournament.  To complete the tournament in a reasonable time frame would probably require 5-6 games a day during the group stage.  

I have a simple alternative that will go nowhere.  Set up eight groups of six teams with the top two advancing to a knockout phase of 16.  This would require five instead of three group stage games and probably adds 7-8 days to the tournament.  But either of the leading options on the table will require over 100 games anyway and probably add 3-4 days to the tournament.

It's FIFA so I have complete confidence they will come up with something that makes sense.

Given how fast the fixtures will come in the next two weeks, we're going to take a break and report back after the holidays.  We'll rank how teams did over the holidays and preview the FA Cup.  Enjoy whatever holiday you observe by watching lots of football.  

Two to Go

 Argentina - Croatia was a snoozer, unless of course, you were rooting for Argentina.  As Dennis said, this was boring, but not for the reason we expected.  We had figured a largely defensive match with little scoring that might have ended in PKs.  Instead we got a quick lead from Argentina that Croatia had no chance of overcoming.

France - Morocco on the other hand was a good watch.  Though the French scored early, the Moroccan response was excellent and they actually were the more attacking side.  The match spent most of its time at 1-0 until a late second goal from France salted it away.  

We Don't Need No Stinkin' Possession

The stats for both semis look turned around, both from what was expected and from what you might expect for the winning side.  Start with possession.  Argentina were outpossessed by Croatia 34/12/54; France against Morocco was 34/11/55.  Same for final third entries, which favored Croatia 43/29 and Morocco 45/26.  France managed just two shots on goal.  It helps that both went in and also that Morocco had just one.  Argentina did a bit better there with seven to Croatia's three.  Expected goals does suggest better quality opportunities for the winners, with Argentina having a 2.57-.54 advantage (though .8 of that was the PK) and France the better side at 1.92-.92

Though Croatia and Morocco might have been considered the better defensive sides, the winners outperformed them on two metrics.  On forced turnovers, Argentina were better at 85/63 while France had the advantage over Morocco 72/47.  For defensive pressures applied the numbers were 321/260 and 328/218.  

Tougher defense, better chances, chances converted.  Makes sense.

Heads Should Roll?

Romain in pain wasn't long for the game;
 Saiss exits at 21 minutes (Photo:Getty)

Dennis offers up Morocco's choice to start the physically compromised center defender Romain Saiss as possibly the worst personnel decision of the tournament.  In their quarterfinal match with Portugal, Saiss was stretchered off the field with a leg injury.  Surprisingly he was deemed fit to play.  Saiss was not culpable on France's first goal.  He was in position and did nothing wrong that we could see.  Watching him move in the early minutes he didn't look to be laboring but he also wasn't really tested.  He did come forward for a set piece and was not exactly quick in getting back on defense.  Then, around 15 minutes he was outplayed on a long ball and the mistake led to a good attempt on goal by Giroud.  Shortly thereafter, Saiss signaled that he needed to come off and he was subbed out in the 21st minute.  So the decision nearly cost them a goal and definitely cost them a sub and a substitution window.  Hindsight offers Lasik quality vision but this looked like an incredibly risky move.

On the other hand, Walid Regragui is on everybody's short list for the manager of the tournament. Maybe Dennis was really questioning the judgment of the physio who cleared Saiss to play.  

Sad But At Least Not Sinister

As discussed here, Grant Wahl died from an aortic aneurysm.  No amount of intervention could have saved him and there was nothing nefarious about his death.  Still sad though.

Reyna's Absence Explained (Sort of)

A few pieces of why Gio Reyna's playing time at the World Cup was so limited.  We had gotten vague explanations about a tight hamstring but that was largely a smokescreen.  Before the World Cup Greg Berhalter told Reyna that he would have a limited role in the tournament.  By his own admission, Reyna let the decision affect his "training and behavior."  According to reports, some US players were so concerned they thought he might need to be sent home.  Yahoo's (and Chestnut Hill's!) Henry Bushnell has a good factual summary of the story here .

Without a doubt, this was an unacceptable response from Reyna.  You can't have this kind of behavior in a squad.  That said, there are two aspects still outstanding.  First, we can debate whether this type of stuff should be aired in public.  Berhalter thought he was making remarks off the record but the story got out anyway.  Second, on the face of it, the decisions seems curious given the US lack of attacking power.  There is an argument that says Reyna's participation in the build-up to the tournament was limited by injuries and he is an injury risk in general so building a plan around him could have backfired.  That is true, but so is the US lack of firepower.  A good exposition of the contrasting positions on this issue come from the views expressed in this article in The Guardian, which argues that Berhalter got it right because Reyna's not a difference maker at this point and this opinion piece in the LA Times, which argues that the US will not go farther in international competitions without Reyna and if Berhalter doesn't see that, he needs to go.

The LA Times piece gets to the larger issue of did Berhalter do  good enough job to be offered a new contract?  Was Berhalter too conservative in his approach?  Or, did he have to be to give the US a chance to get out of a reasonably difficult group?  Which they did.  But as I said last week, there is still a big gap between the US and the teams that make it beyond the round of 16.  Is Berhalter the one to get them to the next level?  Is that a fair question or should it be does the US have the talent to get to the next level, regardless of who's at the helm?  Yeah, I realize these questions are my way of hemming and hawing on the issue.  

Consolation and Final

Parks and Rec's Mona Lisa Saperstein
explains why there is a 3rd place match

The weekend kicks off Saturday at 10 with the match no one wants to play or watch - Croatia vs Morocco for 3rd place.  As Ted Lasso would say, "why y'all even bother?"  The answer is hardly surprising.  It's additional revenues for FIFA and for the Football Associations of the two countries participating.  Frankly, if it wasn't going to be my third straight day without football, I probably wouldn't watch.

Sunday's final, also at 10, shapes up as a classic.  Argentina and France have storied histories in the World Cup and have both played well in this tournament.  We have marquee stars in Messi and Mbappe but a lot of good players behind them.  Predictions are for a tight contest and I don't see a consensus across the pundits.  At 538, they have it 53/47 Argentina.

Oh To Be in England Now That the Carabao Cup Round of 16 Is Here

We ease our way back into English Football with the EFL Cup round of 16 Tuesday - Thursday.  The quaint English tradition of not seeding the teams means we get a Man City - Liverpool fixture on Thursday.  Newcastle, reflecting their improved fortunes, are actually still in it and play Bournemouth on Tuesday.  

In case we don't post next week, don't forget the EPL returns on Boxing Day with seven matches, another two the next day and one more on Wednesday.  Everybody plays again Friday - Sunday (12/30-1/1) and then again Monday - Thursday (1/2 -1/5).  That makes perfect sense.  Take six weeks off then cram in three matches with limited recovery time upon your return.  We can only watch so much.  Probably hard on the players too.

Putting the World in World Cup

Thank you to Morocco for upsetting Portugal to make this year's World Cup semis one of the most international of all time.  Gripping set of quarterfinal matches that should have entertained even the Grinchiest of viewers.  Well, except maybe those that don't like kicks from the spot to decide who advances in case of a draw.

A Lost Voice

Tribute to Grant Wahl at his spot in the press box

Before diving into the quarterfinal results, we need to take a moment to mourn the sudden passing of Grant Wahl, America's premier soccer journalist.  He had been feeling sick, likely with bronchitis, but collapsed during extra time in the Argentina - Netherlands match.  At this point, the cause of death is unknown.

There's a great summary of what Wahl meant to journalism and soccer here.  Money quote for me:

 He was a constant thorn in FIFA’s side, and once in Qatar he seemed to be a magnet for controversy. 

He'd already had two run-ins with authorities at this World Cup - once for refusing to delete picture he had taken of the tournament logo when requested to by a security guard and a second time for wearing a rainbow shirt.  Just because he loved the game didn't mean he would shy away from fighting sportswashing in all its forms.  

Riding on the Marrakesh Express (apologies to Crosby Stills and Nash)

Walid Regragui goes higher than En-Nesyri did on goal

All aboard the train bandwagon.  While you can characterize Morocco's approach in their 1-0 win over Portugal as defensive, you really can't say they parked the bus.  That bus made it's fair share of trips across the center line.  Portugal did have massive edge in possession (65/13/22) but shots were 11/9 and shots on target were even at 3/3.  And Morocco did have a 1.37-.82 xG advantage.  Two metrics available from FIFA do suggest the defensive efforts by Morocco were intense.  They caused 88 forced turnovers compared to Portugal's 44 and had 373 "defensive pressures applied" compared to 165 for Portugal.  I'm new to these measures so I don't know if it was just a consequence of Portugal having so much possession.  Sigh, a study for another day.

Maybe the key metric should be how high En-Nesyri got up to make the header for the game's only goal.  Check out his elevation here.  A fearless challenge in the box for sure.

But let's go back to defense.  Morocco yielded exactly 0 (none, nada, zilch, rien) goals against Croatia, Belgium, Spain and Portugal.  The only goal they've surrendered in the tournament is an own goal to Canada. 

One Aw Sh** Moment Wipes Out 10 Attaboys

I'll eat my shirt if Kane misses a PK
Markus Ulmer/Teamfoto/Imago Images

That philosophical gem was offered up by BFS Contractor Charlie O.  He made the point somewhere in the second half of the France-England match; he was referring to Hugo Lloris's habit of making a series of great saves and then letting an easy one go by.  In the end, it turned out to apply to Harry Kane.  Kane had converted his first PK (against Spurs teammate Hugo Lloris) at 54 minutes to level the match at 1-1.  At 84 minutes, with England now down 1-2, he had another chance.  This time he skied it over the bar.  France held on from there for the victory.  

Fortunately, while there is some fun on the internet at Kane's expense, his reputation doesn't seem to be taking too big a hit over this.  And it shouldn't.   At least he's not in danger of being subject to the racist abuse that teammates Saka, Sancho and Rashford received after high profile PK misses in last Euros.

The worst thing about the miss was that it deprived us of another 30 minutes of the captivating football these two sides offered.  England matched, or maybe surpassed, France's vaunted offense.  Well, except on the scoreboard.  They had the possession edge (54/10/36), took more shots (14/9), had more shots on target (6/5) and better expected goals (2.54-1.21).  Oops, there's a problem with that last one.  A PK is worth about .8 so from the run of play, England's xG is more like .94.  Plus they missed one of the PKs. Final third entries were 39 each.  

The difference came on another goal from Olivier Giroud, seen here in his second consecutive YouTubeableMoment; yeah, the cross from Griezmann was pretty sweet too.  For Giroud this is the most unlikely redemption.  If not for the injury to Benzema, he likely would have spent the tournament as a late match substitute.  As it stands now, with four goals, he's tied for second with teammate Messi, just one behind teammate Mbappe.  We're big fans of his and glad to see him get his due.

No consolation for England but they played really well against a great team.

Nobody Scores in Extra Time

Seems that way but there were Brazil and Croatia each grabbing a goal in the over time periods.  The two sides had battled through a 0-0 90 minutes which was even in possession though Brazil had more scoring chances; Croatia didn't get a shot on target.  Neymar did some nifty work and managed this goal near the end of the first overtime period.  Cynical observers might suggest that the old Neymar would have gone down in attempt to win a PK rather than continue on trying to score. Surely this would be enough to see Brazil through.  Apparently not, and please don't call me Shirley.  Croatia scored in the 117th minute - with its only shot on target - to send the match to a shootout, where they prevailed 4-2. 

What kind of team can't protect a lead with mere minutes left in extra time? Certainly no team I'm aware of.

You Want Drama?

Not sure exactly what to highlight from the Netherlands - Argentina match that ended with Argentina winning 4-3 on PKs after playing to a 2-2 draw.  There was the Dutch comeback.  Down 0-2 after Messi put away a PK in the 73rd minute, they got one back in the 83rd minute, then got the equalizer at 90+11.  Wout Weghorst got both, the second one on a "novel" set piece play seen here.  So much for the wall and the draft excluder.  Argentina definitely were the better side in the overtime and probably deserved the win.

The 90+11 is a clue to other, less savory, aspects of this match.  There were 48 fouls (30 for the Netherlands) and 18 yellow cards.  The yellows were evenly distributed with respect to players - each got shown eight.  Throw in one for the Argentina assistant and one for their manager Scaloni.  For me this was not a strong performance from Spanish referee Antonio Mateu Lahoz.  He did okay calling fouls but his use of the the yellow card left much to be desired.  It's like he was so concerned about not sending anybody off that he forgot that sometimes it's necessary.  It led to uneven decision making, not so much between the teams but between infractions were carded and which ones weren't.

Uh, exactly who got preferential treatment?

Particularly galling is that it's Argentina who feel hard done by his work.  Emilio Martinez is no longer a blog favorite after claiming that Lahoz's objective was to ensure that the Dutch tied the match up.  In fact, Argentina should consider themselves lucky to have finished the match with more than nine players still on the pitch.  Messi should have seen a yellow for breaking up a possible attack with a handball; that meant the yellow he saw late in regulation would have been his second.  Leandro Paredes should have seen two yellows on basically one play - a hard foul followed by blasting the ball in the direction of the Dutch bench.  Not saying Lahoz didn't miss some the other way; Van Dijk needed to see a yellow for his involvement after the Paredes incident. Neither team wrapped itself in glory but only Argentina will be fined.

There aren't that many matches left so it's hard to know how much to read into the fact that Lahoz will not referee any more matches.  I'm fine with that but annoyed with the coverage that reads "Lahoz sent home after Messi complains."  So Messi gets to choose which referees stay?

Did We Miss the Directive From FIFA?

Notice how frequently the referees in the WC are stopping play for non-head injuries?  The rules (Law 5) say the referee can stop play for "serious" injuries but can allow play to continue if the player is only "slightly" injured. It sure feels like they have a much quicker whistle than, say, the EPL, where pretty much unless it's a head injury, the referees let play continue.  There was a directive about adding the appropriate amount of injury time but I haven't found anything about stopping play.   Also, I can't find specific guidance on sorting out the difference between serious and slightly.  I offer a theory that because referees are finally adding back the full amount of time lost to this stuff, maybe they feel it's okay to stop play for things other than head injuries.  Dennis thinks there may have been a few times when it cost a team a promising attack but I feel like it hasn't really affected play except for annoying interruptions to the flow of the game.  

Looks Like There Gonna Be A Shootout

After just 10 games into the knockout stage (Round of 16 and first two quarterfinals) we had four matches that went to kicks from the spot.  That seemed like a lot.  Turns out it is.  In the last nine World Cups dating back to 1986 (again, because the format was different before then), the number of matches that went to a shootout were 4,4,2,4,2,3,3,4,3; that is out of 15 matches (8 in the round of 16, four quarter finals, two semis, and the final).  So at that point, with five more to go, we had already equaled the high from previous World Cups.  Mercifully, we didn't have any in Saturday's two quarterfinals so we're still at four.  

BFS Music Director Chris Z suggested that penalty shootouts are like NASCAR deciding ties with a foot race.  I'd argue it's more like if they used a parallel parking contest.  Just as PKs are a soccer skill, at least parallel parking is a driving skill.  Whether either should be used to resolve ties is arguable.

I've pretty much accepted that PK shootouts are the way to resolve draws in major tournaments, except for the final.  The two things that concern me are recovery and yellow care accumulation.  The tournaments are tightly scheduled, with teams usually playing every fourth day.  As you go deeper into the competition, the fatigue associated with that short turnaround is going to add up.  Sudden death (wait, they call it golden goal) would probably require on average another 30+ minutes of play (WC goals per game is 2.8, which means on average a goal every 32 minutes).  With that expected amount of extra time on top of the tight schedule, a golden goal match would put a team at a significant disadvantage in the next contest.  Since there's nothing after the final, I'd let them play that one until there's a winner from the run of play.  

The second issue is yellow care accumulation.  Most of these tournaments impose a one-match suspension if a player gets two yellows in different matches up to the semi-finals.  If you get stuck in some 140-150 minute match, the chances of picking up that second yellow are increased.  On average, it would probably add at least one more yellow card (225 yellow cards in 60 matches is a yellow card every 24 minutes).

Not ideal but not sure there's a better solution.

More Than Just A Blatter Infection

I just started FIFA Uncovered, the Netflix series on corruption inside football's governing body.  Pretty good so far.  Some stuff I knew but I was missing some of the more historical items, like FIFA's blind eye to the brutal reality on the ground in Argentina, host of the 1978 World Cup - maybe one the biggest sportswashes in history.  Though I was aware there had to be more to the story that just Sepp Blatter, I didn't really know the names and stories behind many other figures in the rampant corruption.  Disheartening and probably an issue in most international sports governing bodies.   

Final Jeopardy Category is World Cup Trivia

Answer: Morocco, South Korea and this country are the only three not from Europe or South America to reach the WC semis.

You have 30 seconds to respond and please be sure it is the form of a question.

Final Four

We have Argentina - Croatia on Tuesday and France - Morocco on Wednesday; both matches are at 2 pm.

Croatia are coming off two straight overtime matches. They have just 11 shots on target in the four matches against teams not named Canada.  I think Argentina's defense may be underrated, although they will be missing fullbacks Acuna and Montiel, who are suspended for yellow card accumulation. Not finding too many picking Croatia to win this one.

Morocco will likely miss Saiss due to a leg injury and possibly Ziyech as well.  Their defensive credentials are solid and they have a quick counter attack.  France have a lot of good players and their defense might be underrated too.  Not finding too many picking Morocco for this one.

For some reason I feel like watching Casablanca

Correct Response for Final Jeopardy

Question:  What is the USA? (in the inaugural edition in 1930)

On the 18th Day, They Rested

So 56 matches in 17 days and then nothing?  Cold turkey is rough.  Have to say that the Round of 16 wasn't quite as gripping as the Group Stage.  It did have it's moments though.  

Holland Daze Loss

Pulisic looks says it all
Photo by James Williamson - AMA/Getty Images

We knew a defeat to the Netherlands was always a real possibility but I didn't it see it going down quite like this - the US undone by three defensive lapses of varying degrees in a 1-3 loss.  As The Athletic put it:

In the end, they didn’t make just one mistake — they fell asleep on three different occasions. 

The first by Tyler Adams might have been the most shocking.  He simply failed to track back on the Dutch attacker.  For the second, Sergino Dest got pulled too far into the center and was caught ball watching.  The third was quite similar except this time it was Antonee Robinson who got burned.  Unfortunate to see this because all three had mostly good tournaments.  

I had thought Dutch technical superiority would be the US undoing, not lapses of this nature.  In some sense, maybe it did come to that difference.  Pulisic had a great scoring opportunity early but couldn't convert.  Netherlands on the other hand, did not miss when presented the scoring chances.

We did have moments of hope.  Like not collapsing but still playing reasonably even after the first goal.  The second goal just before the first half whistle was a killer.  Then Wright's unlikely score at 76 minutes to narrow the margin to 1-2 put some excitement back into the match.  That was shortlived though when Netherlands scored again at 81 minutes.

Ultimately this WC should be viewed as a step forward for the US.  They made it out of a difficult group.  At the same time, the gap between the US and top ten in the world still seems huge.

Another Team Finds They Do Better By Benching Ronaldo

Goncalo Ramos makes his manager
 look like a genius with his hat trick
Getty Images

Earlier this fall, Man United manager Erik ten Hag knew he had to make changes to get his struggling club back on track.  One of the adjustments was benching Ronaldo.  I know the arguments about confusing correlation with causality but Man United got better right away.  You couldn't really say Portugal struggled through the group stage, winning two and losing late to South Korea.  Ronaldo had just one goal (a PK in the opener).  He had tried to claim that he had redirected Fernandes' free kick  for a second goal but the 3,000 cameras and sensors around the stadium showed he didn't.  Portugal manager Fernando Santos also appeared to be annoyed by Ronaldo's reaction to being subbed in the South Korea match.  Whatever the reason, Santos started Goncalo Ramos instead of Ronaldo for what was expected to be a close match with Switzerland.  Ramos only managed a hat trick and Portugal easily dispatched the Swiss 6-1.  Causality or correlation?

Death By A Thousand Passes Indeed

Morocco manager Walid Regragui
wasn't the only one surprised by the
upset win over Spain

Spain certainly have a preferred style - control possession with lots of short passes.  The problem is unless you translate that possession into scoring chances, you can do that all day and look like you are dominating without ever threatening.  This was never more evident in their shoot out loss to Morocco.  Spain made over 1,000 passes with 90% accuracy and had 77% of possession yet managed just one shot on target.  Maybe slightly unfair because they did take 13 shots in total.  In the three matches against teams not named Costa Rica, they managed 9 shots on target in total.  This is the second straight exit from the World Cup on PKs for the Spaniards.  Sure the skills are impressive but are they enough to win; see this example here.  Dennis found some game highlights here.

Morocco have knocked off two European giants - Belgium and now Spain.  

That'll Leave a Mark

So exactly who commercialized football?

Apparently the English don't think much of Fox Sports' presentation of the World Cup.  Several readers
forwarded this review from The Guardian.  You can't argue with some of the points.  Sort of like pointing all the bad things about Qatar hosting the tournament.  On the other hand, they do miss some strong points.  And frankly, hearing complaints about the commercialism of the coverage from someone from a country where the professional football teams wear their sponsorship on their sleeves chest is rich.  Also, I have to discount anything said by a guy who thinks CBS's coverage of the Champions Leagues is enjoyable; the studio crew is absolutely wretched (sorry Micah and Jamie, we're not laughing with you, we're laughing at you).  

No mention of the solid pairing of Jacqui Oatley and Warren Barton.  He pounces on JP Dellacamera for his comment that maybe people didn't know Mbappe was really good.  Well, casual American fans might not.  And his partner, Cobi Jones is doing just fine.  Not thrilled with Landon Donovan in the studio but his work with Ian Darke isn't that bad.  John Strong and Stuart Holden are okay too.  They could ditch the on field reporting - that's adding little or nothing to the telecasts.  Not a big fan of Machnik on the rules analysis but Mark Clattenburg (not mentioned in the article!) is doing an excellent job in that regard.

In the end, I guess the article can't be that far off given that I am looking forward to getting back to the Peacock/USA team.  

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve (before Morocco-Spain shootout): Fair to say that Bono has The Edge over Unai Simon?

Dennis (after the shootout): Well Spain still haven't found what they're looking for

The Rest

There were five other matches of varying watchability.  Brazil pasted South Korea 4-1.  Senegal started well against England but were eventually outplayed 3-0.  The Argentina - Australia match got exciting only because of an own goal at 77 minutes; Argentina were simply better.  The Aussies (not going to use the stupid official nickname Socceroos) managed just one shot on target.  France took awhile to get going but Olivier Giroud gave them a lead late in the first half they would not relinquish; since we feel Giroud never gets enough credit, we make his goal this week's YouTubeableMoment.  In theory the Japan - Croatia that went to PKs should have been exciting but all I can remember is how shockingly bad the Japanese were in the shootout.

World Cup Is Just Euros With Guests?

Well, with regular guests from South America.  We are in the 10th World Cup since 1986.  That means there have been 80 quarterfinalists.  Of those 80, 52 (65%) have been from Europe, as in, on average, the quarters include at least five teams from Europe.  Another 20 came from South America.  That means just 8 teams from the rest of the world have ever seen the quarters.  Those select 8 include Mexico (86), Cameroon (90), Senegal (02), US (02), South Korea (02), Ghana (10), Costa Rica (14) and Morocco (22).  Brazil are the most frequent participant, making the quarters 9 out of 10 times.  Next are Germany with 8; note that they made it in every WC from '86 to '14 but now have missed two in a row.  Argentina have 7 appearances while England and France have 6 each.  Full list of multiple participants below:

Brazil - 9

Germany (including West Germany)- 8

Argentina - 7

England - 6

France - 6

Netherlands - 5

Italy - 4

Spain - 4

Belgium - 3

Croatia - 3

Sweden - 2

Portugal - 2

Uruguay - 2

Looking at the tournament since 1986, 19 European, 5 South American, 4 African, 3 North American, and 1 Asian countries have ever made it to the quarters.  A very exclusive club.  I chose 1986 because in 1982 there were no quarterfinals but rather a second group stage that consisted of four groups of three teams.  In 1978 and earlier, the tournament only had 16 teams.

Again looking back only through 1986, the list of teams that have made the semi-finals is short - just 16.  Of the 36 prior slots, 27 went to European sides, 8 to South American sides and 1 from Asia.  In this year's crop of quarterfinalists, all but Morocco have been to the semis at least once.  Brazil and France lead with four appearances, Argentina and Netherlands have three each, and England and Croatia have made it twice.  

 

Quarterfinals

The matchup to watch is England - France (2 pm Saturday)  At 538 they have it at 52-48 for England.    Croatia surely look the underdog against Brazil (10 am Friday), who will see Neymar return from injury; that's 77/23 at 538.  Morocco's task against Portugal (10 am Saturday) is daunting. No African team has every reached the semi-finals of the World Cup and Portugal are 68/32 favorites at 538.  Netherlands - Argentina is a tasty match up between two countries that have been here before; 538 has it 58/42 favor Argentina.  I'm holding out hope for an exciting contest here (2 pm on Friday).

Work and other things considered, hope to post Tuesday morning to go over the semi-finals.

Good Stuff

An engrossing four days of final group stage games.  I don't remember it ever being this tight but maybe I just didn't have as much information.  So many places in the knockout stage were in doubt until the final whistle.  

Group A  - Let's Go Dutch

Aliou Cisse - Leading Senegal to knockout stage 
and gathering some Best Hair votes at 6911

This group was likely the tamest of the bunch.  Netherlands win over Qatar was a foregone conclusion so Ecuador and Senegal were left to play for the second slot, with Ecuador only needing a draw.  Senegal got an early lead but Ecuador leveled at 67 minutes.  A mere three minutes later, Koulibaly scores on volleys this volley to restore the lead (yes, that's our own JP Dellacamera with the call).  It's too many games ago to remember if there were any scares in final 20 plus minutes, but with the slim lead, there was always a chance that Ecuador could grab the spot back.  

Qatar found out that you can buy the rights to host the World Cup, but not the World Cup itself.  They finished with three losses and a -6 goal differential, the worst performance by a host country in WC history.  Can't say I'm too broken up by that.

Group B - What's a Guy Gotta Do to Get a Goal Around Here?

Apparently sustain a pelvic bruise and spend the night in the hospital.  The USMNT, needing a win over Iran to advance, were doing some, but not enough, of the right things.  According to 538, after 37 minutes, the US had seven shots, five chances and .42 expected goals; Iran's numbers to that point were 0, 0 and 0 respectively.  In the 38th minute they got the breakthrough.  You can see the play here on this week's easy choice for YouTubeableMoment.  A great forward ball from McKennie, then a pinpoint header from Dest right onto the "damn the torpedoes run" from Christian Pulisic.  That is giving it up for your team.  After some treatment, Pulisic did finish out the half but was replaced by Aaronson at the start of the second half.  Technically, I suppose Dest's pass was a "hospital ball" because that's where Pulisic ended up, though the phrase is usually only applied to terrible passes.

Left in the Dest: Iran spend much of the night chasing him
Showkat Shafi/Al Jazeera

That might have been the best Dest has played for the USMNT.  Constant traffic down the right side and a willingness to take on defenders one-on-one.  His counterpart on the left side, Antonee Robinson was almost as good.  They are taking heat for losing the ball too easily but they were the reason Iran was under pressure so much of the night.  Tim Ream was solid again.  

The tally for the group stage was one win and two draws.  Light on goals scored (2), but very stingy on goals allowed (1 - and that was a PK so there were no goals allowed from the run of play).  

Group C - Poland Had A Yellow Card to Give

In some ways, this was the craziest of the eight groups.  At one point, second place in the group belonged to Poland because they had two fewer yellow cards than Mexico.  Stuart Holden reminded us that his mother said "it doesn't cost you anything to be nice" and later that "Poland had a yellow card to give."  For Poland, this slim advantage, meant that even as they were losing to Argentina, they did not need to gamble for a goal.  For Mexico it was the opposite, despite a 2-0 lead, they needed a third goal to advance.  In the end, Saudi Arabia put one away in stoppage time so Poland advanced based on a superior goal differential.  Argentina, despite losing the opener, won the group.

Group D - This Could Have Been A Real Mess

France were already in but Denmark and Australia had all to play for.  The Aussies had a slight advantage in that they could advance with a draw as long as France beat Tunisia.  Oops.  Australia did take a 1-0 lead in the 60th minute. which was fortunate for them because Tunisia were up 1-0 on France, who had kept many first teamers on the bench.  So it was critical for the Aussies to hold that lead until the final whistle, which they did.  

Which also saved officials from what would have been an ugly situation.  In the 98th minute of the France Tunisia match Griezmann scored to level things for France.  Play was restarted and within seconds, referee Matthew Conger blew the whistle for full time.  He then got the message from the VAR that he needed to check Griezmann's goal for offside.  You can see the play here (should open to the correct time).  In Conger's judgment, the Tunisian defender's touch on the ball did not constitute a "deliberate play" and therefore Griezmann was offside on the original cross into the box.  If the referee had determined it was a deliberate play, then it wouldn't be offside.  We can debate that part of the call; for me, that sure looks deliberate but at least we are in the interpretative part of the problem.  The much bigger issue is that you can't go to VAR after play has been restarted (except in very limited circumstances like mistaken identity or violent conduct).  Not a subjective call that one.  The review should not have happened.  Note that it wasn't because the final whistle had blown but because play had been restarted.  Good explanation from ESPN here.

In the end, it made no difference because Australia hung onto their slim lead.  If they had given up the tying goal, then Tunisia would have advanced based on a better goal differential.  Except, of course, France - Tunisia match should have ended in a draw.  Can you imagine the outrage if Australia had been eliminated?  Interestingly, though "it all worked out," France have still appealed to FIFA.  Good luck with that.

Group E - What About the Transitive Property?

You know, if A beats B and B beats C, then A should beat C.   Not in this group.  Costa Rica beat Japan, Spain beat Costa Rica so Spain should beat Japan.  Nope.  Japan beat Germany, Germany beat Costa Rica, Japan should beat Costa Rica.  Again, nope.  And so on.  At halftime on Thursday, Spain and Germany had one goal leads over Japan and Costa Rica respectively and were advancing out of Group E.  Japan scored twice and now it's Spain and Japan advancing.  Costa Rica score twice and for three minutes and it's Japan and Costa Rica.  Germany levelled, then added couple more and it was back to Spain and Japan.  But a goal from Spain in the closing minutes would have turned it back to Spain and Germany.  Just nuts.

Group F - Long in the Tooth

long in the tooth

PHRASE

If you describe someone as long in the tooth, you are saying unkindly or humorously that they are old or getting old.

Belgium's long run may be over without a trophy

As in the Belgium squad is getting long in the tooth and it really showed in this World Cup.  An unimpressive 1-0 win over Canada, a loss to Morocco and a 0-0 draw against Croatia.  That final result isn't all that shocking as Croatia are a good side (they finished second in the group).  What was shocking was that, at least until late, there was no sense of urgency in their play.  Lukaku came on to generate some chances but perhaps symbolic of the Belgium's larger disappointment was that he missed all three.  Raise your hand if you had Morocco winning this group.  Sure you did.

Group G - Keep Your Shirt On

In the end it didn't matter but it could have.  Vincent Aboubakar scored a goal in second half stoppage time, allowing Cameroon to steal a 1-0 win over Brazil, who had already clinched a spot in the knockout stage.  He took off his jersey in celebration.  As you know, that's an automatic yellow card.  Problem was he'd been booked earlier so he was sent off for his second yellow.  Meanwhile, Switzerland held on to for 3-2 win over Serbia in an entertaining, if testy, match, which got them second in the group.  But, a late levelling goal by Serbia would have left Switzerland and Cameroon tied on points, goal differential, goals scored and goals allowed.  The deciding tiebreaker would have been Switzerland's win over Cameroon in match one of the group stage.  But Aboubaker is lucky.  If it had gone to Fair Play Points, his strip tease act would have been the difference and Switzerland would have advanced.  Seeing a yellow for shirt removal is common but not sure I've seen it happen for a second yellow and sending off.

Group H - Another Late Reversal of Fortune

Uruguay held a 2-0 lead over Ghana and looked headed for the second spot behind Portugal, who were locked at 1-1 with South Korea.  Then, Son made a lung-busting run in stoppage time and sent a perfectly timed pass to Hwang, who scored the game winner for South Korea.  You can see the play here; yeah, I know he got a yellow for taking his jersey off but he hadn't already been booked.  You could see the disappointment on the Uruguay bench when they got the word that they needed another goal that wasn't forthcoming.  Cruel reversal of fortune.  Hmmm, the three countries (France, Brazil, Portugal) who came into match three with a spot already clinched all lost.

Christian Dating Services

Doesn't mean what some people think it might mean.

Electric Balls

These balls don't charge themselves

Oh grow up.  The new high technology balls in use at this World Cup are apparently not solar powered and need to be charged after about six hours of use.  As detailed here, the sensors track movement, location and impact of each touch on the ball.  They allow VAR to get those cool pictures to make offside calls.  But their most important achievement to date may have been making sure Ronaldo did not get away with claiming he redirected Fernandes' header for a goal against Uruguay.   Worth every penny.

Knockout Participants by Continent

Europe - 8

South America - 2

Africa - 2

Asia - 2

North America - 1

Australia - 1

Antarctica - 0

Round of 16

No break as we go right into the knockout matches Saturday morning.  At least there will be 1) only two matches a day and 2) no overlaps so you don't have to make choices about what to watch live.

You can see 538's predictions for the eight matches here.  There are some projected blowouts in there - Argentina - Australia (Saturday at 2), Brazil - South Korea (Monday at 2) and even France - Poland (Sunday at 10).

Hopefully we do not see a lot of this from Gakpo

Fortunately, one of those is not Netherlands - US (Saturday at 10).  We are underdogs here but this is winnable.  I'm nowhere near as optimistic as this crew that offered their opinions at MLS.com. As you can see here, nearly every analyst picked the US.  Really guys?  Not saying it can't happened but it feels more like a pep talk than analysis.  Happy to be proven wrong. Apparently the flu is running through the Dutch camp but they are keeping mum on numbers and identities.  Probably don't want to run afoul of HIPAA regulations. The word is that Pulisic will be available.

Looking forward to all the matches but most interested in Japan - Croatia (10 am Monday) and England vs Senegal (Sunday at 2 pm).  Other matches include Morocco - Spain at 10 am on Tuesday and Portugal - Switzerland at 2 pm on Tuesday.  The former sounds a bit like a renewal of some ancient conflict.  

We'll be back after this round to look at the quarterfinals.

Get Your World Cup Match 3 Scenarios Right Here

We continue to watch way too much of this event.  The matches (32 so far) are starting to run together.  

How Many Countries in This Country Are We Going to Get Draws With?

Wales and England done, still need Scotland and Northern Ireland.  Oh well, maybe some other World Cup.

We'd have no points at this point without Matt Turner
Julio Cortez / Associated Press

Never has a team played so well to get a result that was so meaningless.  I know that sounds harsh and I don't mean to diminish the effort.  The 0-0 draw with England was one of the best performances we've seen from the USMNT at this level in a long time (WC quarterfinal vs Germany in 2002?).  The bad news is that with Iran beating Wales earlier in the day, the draw changed nothing; we still need to win on Tuesday or go home.

The match looked like a draw on TV and the stat sheet too.  This was a much better outing than we saw against Wales, although we have to say England didn't look like world beaters.

Head Butt Maneuvers

Frequent 6911 viewing guest Kathy S provided us with simplified language for the beautiful game.  Clarifying the strategic value of a corner kick she said, "so the key is that they get to execute one of those head butt maneuvers."  We all knew exactly what she meant.

Manic Monday (apologies to The Bangles)

Monday's results weren't necessarily according to form and have exponentially complicated the advancement scenarios for Groups E and F.  Japan fell to Costa Rica 0-1, washing out the easy road to the knockout rounds that they had seemingly laid out after the win over Germany.  Likewise, Belgium were upset by Morocco 0-2 (looking old and tired in the process) and instead of relaxing for the third match now see their odds of advancing down to 33%.   A goal by Germany in the 83 minute rescued a 1-1 draw with Spain and boosted their chances from 33% to 67%.  Even Canada got us excited, if only for a little while, with an early goal against Croatia; that didn't last and our northern neighbors got bounced out of the tournament with a 1-4 loss.

It's Over (apologies to Boz Scaggs)

Anthony Taylor is getting reamed on the internet for allegedly cheating South Korea out of a corner at the end of their match with Ghana.  He had called for a minimum of 10 minutes of stoppage time.  At about 10:50, South Korea took a shot that deflected off a Ghanaian and went over the goal line.  Rather than awarding a corner, Taylor blew the whistle for full time.  Cue the outrage.  Even Landon Donovan spoke about the unwritten rule that you allow the team to take that corner.

Except that's not how it works.  It is true that often you'll see the referee allow a corner after the minimum amount of stoppage time has elapsed.  But that's a situation where the referee has added time to the minimum amount to account for additional time wasting that may have occurred in stoppage time.  For example, if a referee says there's a minimum of five minutes stoppage time but has added another 30 seconds, a corner that occurs at 5:15 is before the game is over and will be allowed, even if if that will take the game past 5:30.  A ball that goes across the goal line at 5:31 is after the match is over and the corner shouldn't be given.  This article seemed like one of the more measured assessments of the incident.  The money quote from Dean Ashton:

“Ultimately, you’ve had 12 corners! You’ve had about 55 crosses, if you haven’t scored by that point, I’m sorry the time had elapsed, it was up to the referee and that’s just the way it goes.”

Exactly, the manager goes ballistic and gets himself a suspension for third match over that call?  BFS Officiating Rule #1 - The referee did not cost you the game.

So Many Highlights

Lots of great viewing so far and we could pick any number of goals to highlight.  One is standing out right now, more for its context than anything else, though it was a good strike on its own.  Recall that Argentina lost their opener and faced Mexico in the second game.  That match was scoreless well into the second half and a draw would have left them last in the group and likely needing a win over Poland in the final match to advance.  Enter Lionel Messi.  We make his goal in the 64th minute this week's YouTubeableMoment. It almost looks like he scuffed it just a touch but the placement is perfect.  The tally sent Argentina on their way to a 2-0 win and made their path to the knockout stage less treacherous.

That Is A Violation

You can see the matches from these seats

Speaking of 6911, we continue to flaunt the rules by consuming alcohol - ONSITE - during the contests.  See the photo (right) that somehow eluded the Supreme Committee's censors.  Also note that the viewing audience includes a cat (Ollie) and a dog (Kaya).  No animals were harmed in the viewing of these matches.

Last Day of Group Stage Play

So we are onto the final matches in the group stage. Match 3 scheduling is different in that both matches within a group are at the same time to minimize tomfoolery.  We go back to a 2018 BFS post to explain what happens:

Maybe you can have it all

After 11 days of absolutely no overlap in any of the matches, we now may be faced with some hard choices about what to watch.  That's because the final matches for each group are played simultaneously.  Why?  If matches are not at the same time, teams playing later may know exactly what result would allow both to advance.   But surely pride, etc., etc., would keep teams from doing this.  Except maybe not; I give you Germany and Austria in 1982.

 In some cases the choices won't be too difficult but not always.  And, of course, there's always the Michael B dual screen technology approach, demonstrated in the photo at left.  If that's not an option, we offer our opinion on each group stage finale below.

Okay, so let's dive into the 2022 situation.  The scenarios of who needs what to advance can get quite complicated, sometimes involving goal differentials or even the number of yellow cards a team got in group stage.  ESPN has the very detailed explanation here.  We offer highlights and match recommendations below. 

Group A

Netherlands - in with a win or draw versus Qatar or with a Senegal loss to Ecuador

Ecuador - in with a win or draw over Senegal

Senegal - in with win over Ecuador

Qatar - buh-bye

Recommendation:  Ecuador - Senegal at 10 am on Tuesday

Group B

England - in unless they lose to Wales by more than six goals

Iran - in with win over US; draw is good enough if Wales don't beat England

US - in with win over Iran

Wales - in with miracle six goal win over England AND US-Iran draw

Recommendation: Iran - US at 2 pm on Tuesday

Group C

Not enough space to fully review the scenarios.

Poland - in with win or draw versus Argentina; could advance with a loss but complicated

Argentina - in with win over Poland; could advance with draw if Mexico win or draw but tiebreakers could be involved

Saudi Arabia - in with win over Mexico; could advance with draw but complicated

Mexico - in with four-goal win over Saudi Arabia; anything else is complicated

Recommendation: Set up two TV or computer screens at 2 pm on Wednesday

Group D

France - already in

Australia - in with win over Denmark; also in with draw IF Tunisia don't beat France

Denmark - must beat Australia and hope Tunisia lose or draw with France; could still advance even if Tunisia win but would depend on tiebreakers

Tunisia - must beat France and have Australia/Denmark draw; could advance even if Denmark win but  it's complicated

Note that the sixth tiebreaker - fair play points - could come into play in this group.  

Recommendation: Australia - Denmark Wednesday at 10 am

Group E

Spain - in with win or draw over Japan; could advance with loss but it's complicated

Japan - in with win over Spain; can advance with draw but it's complicated

Costa Rica - in with win over Germany; can advance with draw but it's complicated

Germany - must beat Costa Rica AND have Japan lose to Spain; there are some additional possibilities but they are complicated

Recommendation: Costa Rica - Germany Thursday at 2 pm (warning: could be a blow-out)

Group F

Croatia - in with win or draw over Belgium; can advance with loss with certain tie breakers

Morocco -  in with win or draw over Canada; can even advance with loss but it's complicated

Belgium - in with win over Croatia; can advance with draw if Canada beat Morocco but it's complicated

Canada - heading north for the winter

Recommendation: Croatia - Belgium Thursday at 10 am

Group G

Brazil - in

Switzerland - in with win over Serbia; in with draw and Cameroon loss or draw; still could advance with loss and Cameroon win but it's complicated 

Cameroon - in with win over Brazil AND Switzerland loss and some other stuff too

Serbia - in with win over Switzerland AND Brazil win; could advance with win and Cameroon win but requires other stuff too

Recommendation: Serbia - Switzerland Friday at 2 pm

Group H

Portugal - in 

Ghana - in with win over Uruguay; draw and Portugal win or draw also good enough; draw and South Korea win requires a bunch of other things

Uruguay - in with win over Ghana

South Korea - in with win over Portugal AND Uruguay win/draw AND a bunch of other things

Recommendation:  Ghana - Uruguay Friday at 10 am

At least there are no more 5 am matches.

We Are Entertained

Sixteen matches played.  One quarter of the tournament is in the books.  A little overwhelmed here at BFS so we'll revert to our old standby - lots of random observations.

Gareth Bane Bale Again

Not him again

Twice this month the Welshman has messed with this soccer fan's rooting interest.  Less than three weeks ago he was scoring the tying goal late in stoppage time to foil the Union's hopes of winning the MLS Cup.  On Monday, there he was again, drawing a foul in the box and converting the subsequent PK to help Wales grab a draw with the US.  To be honest, a draw probably was a fair result here.  Don't be fooled by the US possession advantage of 59/41.  Shots were 4/3 and shots on target were 1/3.  Expected goals was 1.05 -1.28; the PK is worth .79 so xG from open play was 1.05 - .49.  

The US did move the ball well in the first half and generated a couple of good scoring chances.  But a lot of the possession was wasted on crosses that were blocked or intercepted; Dennis notes we are not exactly the tallest team up front.  The goal was awesome link up play between Sargent, Pulisic and Weah.  Check out Pulisic's through ball on this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Unfortunately they needed more moments like that; they played okay, but certainly not great.  

The gnashing of teeth that the US didn't get the win is likely because we had the lead.  Looking at 538, the US chances of making it out of the group stage did fall a little, from 53 to 45.  Yes, life would be easier if they had won.  But they were only slight favorites going in.  For me the key here was to not lose this match to keep the other matches meaningful.  Was there a scenario that got them through that didn't involve beating Iran?  I'll admit that the bad news here is that the draw with Wales means they could get tripped up by the various tiebreakers.  That is, we could both lose to England and both beat Iran, which would mean advancement would come down to goal differentials.

Broken Promises

This has been a World Cup of controversy.  Plenty of issues to discuss.  I'm not interested in defending Qatar for a host of bad things they've done.  But there is a bit of throwing stones by people who live in glass houses.  Seems like a significant portion of the US population would be more than happy to impose Qatari-like prohibitions on the LGBTQ population here.  France bans the full Islamic veil in public places.  Not saying we shouldn't press Qatar but maybe save some of the outrage to make things better on the home front.

Supreme Committee Chairman?

That said, FIFA is caving in with regularity to the Qatar Supreme Committee for Legacy and Delivery, the organization responsible for World Cup preparations.  After more than a decade of promises that alcohol would be available in the stadiums, there was a last minute reversal on that.  Infantino (FIFA head) offered a defense along the lines of you can't drink beer at your seat in England (true, but you can drink it in the concourses) and maybe going three hours without beer at your seat isn't awful.  He of course misses the point that it's not either of those things but reneging on agreements that were presumably part of why Qatar was allowed to host the event in the first place.  Same for allowing Jews to pray in public and threatening to issue yellow cards to players wearing rainbow armbands.

For the record, there has been drinking during the matches here at 6911.  I had pictures to post but some guy from FIFA confiscated my phone.

DVR Alert

One of the directives from FIFA to referees for this tournament was for them to be sticklers about stoppage time to make sure we're getting a full 90 minutes of soccer.  This has led to some big numbers, often exceeding five minutes in the second half.  There were a few telecasts that went over two hours.  So, if you are DVRing this stuff, remember to add at least 15 minutes to the ending time for group stage matches.  When we get to the knockout phase, 90 minutes may be the recommended dosage.

I would be thrilled to see the FA include a similar instruction for EPL matches.  I suspect the numbers would be even larger than we're seeing at the World Cup because there's more shithousery.  It would be good for people to see just how much time wasting is really going on.

Data.  We Want More Data

We are seeing a new possession stat that includes "in contest" as a third option.  Courtesy of The Athletic, here's what "in contest" includes:  

Firstly and pretty obviously, when two players are competing for the ball, whether in the air or on the ground, that is considered in-contest.

Secondly, when a defender clears a ball from its intended target. It will not be considered in possession of either team until it has been retrieved by the opposing defence or by an attacker.

Similarly, if a defender makes a block or interception but is not in total control of the ball, it will be considered in-contest.

A goalkeeper parrying the ball away from goal when making a save will also be considered in-contest until it is recovered by either of the teams, at which point a player will have to make a second touch, a pass or any other ‘in-control’ action for the ball to be considered in the possession of their team.

Maybe after the group stage, when we have 48 games to work with, I'll see what the differences are between the two metrics.

Second, the World Cup sees the introduction of the most technologically advanced ball ever.  Details are here.  In short, we could be looking at an explosion in the data available to analyze the game.

Biggest Upset

So you didn't get up at 5 am to see Argentina - Saudi Arabia, thinking you'd see the score when you got up and realize you didn't miss anything.  Wrong offside trap breath.  The Saudis kept an incredibly disciplined back line that led to Argentina being flagged for offsides 10 times, including three that chalked off goals at 22, 28 and 34 minutes.  The Saudis grabbed two early second half goals and held on for an incredible 2-1 upset.  

Martinez offside by inches

Some of the offside calls were incredibly tight.  The semi-automated technology that is now in use provides pretty cool pictures.  Check out the picture (left) on the Martinez call at 34 minutes.  I found the picture for the disallowed goal at 22 minutes and that one was very clear.  I can't find the shot for the call at 28 minutes.  Whoops, and there's some controversy about that one.  There's a story and a picture making the rounds that purport to show that the technology looked at the wrong defender.  This article includes the point I want to make.  You can see the lines drawn on the two different defenders and you can see the VAR picture.  The initial conclusion would be that maybe this wasn't offside.  Here's the problem though.  The VAR picture they show is the play at 34 minutes, not 28 minutes.  Maybe there was a mistake here but until I see the VAR picture from the call at 28 minutes, I'm skeptical that this was a huge error. 

You Can Lead a Ref to VAR But You Can't Make Him Use It

Before delving into the controversial calls in the Belgium Canada match, recall that the BFS's first rule of officiating is that the referee never costs you a match.  If you look carefully, you'll find enough failures of your own that explain the result.  No doubt Canada feel hard done by two calls in the 0-1 loss.  But they missed the PK that was called, took 22 shots but only three were on target and had expected goals of 2.45.  Sounds like somebody needs finishing school.

Of course, that doesn't mean there weren't refereeing mistakes.  We'll take the "easier" one first. At 38 minutes, Laren fell under pressure from Witsel.  I could not find a good video of the incident.  Notably, the Fox highlights package doesn't include either of the calls.  Real time I didn't think it was a foul.  That opinion held through the first look on replay - it didn't look like a push to me.  But then I did notice that Witsel might have actually tripped Laryea.  Hard to say for sure.  Sikazwe didn't call it, and VAR did not instruct him to take another look.  Sounds like proper procedure was followed; that this was not a clear and obvious error does not seem like, well, a clear and obvious error.  Finding some measure of support for that view on the web.

The second incident has more moving parts and some possible procedural issues.  At 13 minutes, Buchanan received the ball in an offside position.  The AR raised the flag but before Sikazwe blew his whistle, Vertonghen nicked the ball away and  caught Buchanan on the foot as he landed.   You can see the play here. That there was at least one error here is clear - Buchanan received the ball on a back pass from Hazard, not from a teammate.  Therefore, there can be no offside infraction.  What transpires from there is not clear.  Did the VAR crew believe that the whistle was blown before the foul?  If yes, then they would think that VAR cannot intervene.  Problem is that video/audio shows the whistle came afterward.  A second possibility is that they reviewed it and concluded the offside call was correct.  That seems impossible.  The third possibility is that they reviewed it and concluded that not calling a foul on Vertonghen was not a clear and obvious error.  Possible but the video leaves little doubt that Vertonghen tripped Buchanan.  I went back to the DVR to see that the restart was a free kick for Belgium.  But Sikawze did not have his arm in the air signifying an indirect free kick, which is the proper restart after an offside call.  Probably just another error in this whole sequence.  I still think option one is what played out.  In short, a clusterf big screw up that hasn't really been cleared up as of Thursday night.

Uh, Maybe Use a Different Metaphor

Nice hair

As Hannibal Mejbri came on for Tunisia, the Fox announcer said he's the kind of player who wears his heart on his sleeve.  Dennis suggested that with the name Hannibal, that was probably an inappropriate metaphor.  Also, Hannibal is an early contender for Best Hair of the Tournament.

Job Security

Ferran Torres of Spain is dating Sira Martinez, daughter of Spanish manager Luis Enrique. 

Other Random Stuff

- Sure Argentina lost and Germany fell 1-2 to Japan.  Many of other favorites cruised, with England besting Iran 6-2, France beating Australia 4-1, Spain pasting Costa Rica 7-0 and Brazil eventually taking care of Serbia 2-0.

- Very happy to see Olivier Giroud score two for France, tying him with Thierry Henry for most goals scored for France; check out this article in The Athletic asking why is he still underappreciated

- Four 0-0 draws so far but they were still entertaining

- Though the BFS Match 1 recommendations were decent matches, you might have done better with other choices.  The US-Wales contest was good and I'll stand by the Uruguay - South Korea choice (fierce like a derby) but Argentina - Saudi Arabia was clearly your best choice for Tuesday and Germany-Japan for Wednesday

Shameless Cross Promotion

In my second job, moonlighting for FanHubTF, I did this piece on the similarities between false starts and offside.

Something to be Thankful For

Newcastle announced that they are not interested in signing Ronaldo, who's contract with Man United was mutually terminated this week.  There had been some articles linking him with Newcastle and I was getting nervous we would do something stupid.  As Dennis put it, "let's take a 3rd place team that has no problem scoring even with two of it's best attackers out injured and has great chemistry, and introduce an aging spectacle who will destroy the locker room."  What he said. 

Group Stage Match 2 Picks

Friday - England US at 2 pm

Saturday - Argentina Mexico at 2 pm

Sunday - Spain Germany at 2 pm

Monday - Portugal Uruguay at 2 pm

It's mere coincidence they are all at 2 pm.  I might have recommended France - Denmark on Friday but Germany's loss to Japan means that the Spain-Germany match isn't merely about who will be 1-2 in group.  Same for Croatia -Canada on Saturday; Argentina's loss makes the match with Mexico more interesting

I was going to do Match 3 recommendations but that's really hard to do without knowing the Match 2 results.  Hoping I can do at least a short post for Tuesday morning to discuss scenarios for advancement to the knockout rounds.