Two to Go

 Argentina - Croatia was a snoozer, unless of course, you were rooting for Argentina.  As Dennis said, this was boring, but not for the reason we expected.  We had figured a largely defensive match with little scoring that might have ended in PKs.  Instead we got a quick lead from Argentina that Croatia had no chance of overcoming.

France - Morocco on the other hand was a good watch.  Though the French scored early, the Moroccan response was excellent and they actually were the more attacking side.  The match spent most of its time at 1-0 until a late second goal from France salted it away.  

We Don't Need No Stinkin' Possession

The stats for both semis look turned around, both from what was expected and from what you might expect for the winning side.  Start with possession.  Argentina were outpossessed by Croatia 34/12/54; France against Morocco was 34/11/55.  Same for final third entries, which favored Croatia 43/29 and Morocco 45/26.  France managed just two shots on goal.  It helps that both went in and also that Morocco had just one.  Argentina did a bit better there with seven to Croatia's three.  Expected goals does suggest better quality opportunities for the winners, with Argentina having a 2.57-.54 advantage (though .8 of that was the PK) and France the better side at 1.92-.92

Though Croatia and Morocco might have been considered the better defensive sides, the winners outperformed them on two metrics.  On forced turnovers, Argentina were better at 85/63 while France had the advantage over Morocco 72/47.  For defensive pressures applied the numbers were 321/260 and 328/218.  

Tougher defense, better chances, chances converted.  Makes sense.

Heads Should Roll?

Romain in pain wasn't long for the game;
 Saiss exits at 21 minutes (Photo:Getty)

Dennis offers up Morocco's choice to start the physically compromised center defender Romain Saiss as possibly the worst personnel decision of the tournament.  In their quarterfinal match with Portugal, Saiss was stretchered off the field with a leg injury.  Surprisingly he was deemed fit to play.  Saiss was not culpable on France's first goal.  He was in position and did nothing wrong that we could see.  Watching him move in the early minutes he didn't look to be laboring but he also wasn't really tested.  He did come forward for a set piece and was not exactly quick in getting back on defense.  Then, around 15 minutes he was outplayed on a long ball and the mistake led to a good attempt on goal by Giroud.  Shortly thereafter, Saiss signaled that he needed to come off and he was subbed out in the 21st minute.  So the decision nearly cost them a goal and definitely cost them a sub and a substitution window.  Hindsight offers Lasik quality vision but this looked like an incredibly risky move.

On the other hand, Walid Regragui is on everybody's short list for the manager of the tournament. Maybe Dennis was really questioning the judgment of the physio who cleared Saiss to play.  

Sad But At Least Not Sinister

As discussed here, Grant Wahl died from an aortic aneurysm.  No amount of intervention could have saved him and there was nothing nefarious about his death.  Still sad though.

Reyna's Absence Explained (Sort of)

A few pieces of why Gio Reyna's playing time at the World Cup was so limited.  We had gotten vague explanations about a tight hamstring but that was largely a smokescreen.  Before the World Cup Greg Berhalter told Reyna that he would have a limited role in the tournament.  By his own admission, Reyna let the decision affect his "training and behavior."  According to reports, some US players were so concerned they thought he might need to be sent home.  Yahoo's (and Chestnut Hill's!) Henry Bushnell has a good factual summary of the story here .

Without a doubt, this was an unacceptable response from Reyna.  You can't have this kind of behavior in a squad.  That said, there are two aspects still outstanding.  First, we can debate whether this type of stuff should be aired in public.  Berhalter thought he was making remarks off the record but the story got out anyway.  Second, on the face of it, the decisions seems curious given the US lack of attacking power.  There is an argument that says Reyna's participation in the build-up to the tournament was limited by injuries and he is an injury risk in general so building a plan around him could have backfired.  That is true, but so is the US lack of firepower.  A good exposition of the contrasting positions on this issue come from the views expressed in this article in The Guardian, which argues that Berhalter got it right because Reyna's not a difference maker at this point and this opinion piece in the LA Times, which argues that the US will not go farther in international competitions without Reyna and if Berhalter doesn't see that, he needs to go.

The LA Times piece gets to the larger issue of did Berhalter do  good enough job to be offered a new contract?  Was Berhalter too conservative in his approach?  Or, did he have to be to give the US a chance to get out of a reasonably difficult group?  Which they did.  But as I said last week, there is still a big gap between the US and the teams that make it beyond the round of 16.  Is Berhalter the one to get them to the next level?  Is that a fair question or should it be does the US have the talent to get to the next level, regardless of who's at the helm?  Yeah, I realize these questions are my way of hemming and hawing on the issue.  

Consolation and Final

Parks and Rec's Mona Lisa Saperstein
explains why there is a 3rd place match

The weekend kicks off Saturday at 10 with the match no one wants to play or watch - Croatia vs Morocco for 3rd place.  As Ted Lasso would say, "why y'all even bother?"  The answer is hardly surprising.  It's additional revenues for FIFA and for the Football Associations of the two countries participating.  Frankly, if it wasn't going to be my third straight day without football, I probably wouldn't watch.

Sunday's final, also at 10, shapes up as a classic.  Argentina and France have storied histories in the World Cup and have both played well in this tournament.  We have marquee stars in Messi and Mbappe but a lot of good players behind them.  Predictions are for a tight contest and I don't see a consensus across the pundits.  At 538, they have it 53/47 Argentina.

Oh To Be in England Now That the Carabao Cup Round of 16 Is Here

We ease our way back into English Football with the EFL Cup round of 16 Tuesday - Thursday.  The quaint English tradition of not seeding the teams means we get a Man City - Liverpool fixture on Thursday.  Newcastle, reflecting their improved fortunes, are actually still in it and play Bournemouth on Tuesday.  

In case we don't post next week, don't forget the EPL returns on Boxing Day with seven matches, another two the next day and one more on Wednesday.  Everybody plays again Friday - Sunday (12/30-1/1) and then again Monday - Thursday (1/2 -1/5).  That makes perfect sense.  Take six weeks off then cram in three matches with limited recovery time upon your return.  We can only watch so much.  Probably hard on the players too.