On the 18th Day, They Rested

So 56 matches in 17 days and then nothing?  Cold turkey is rough.  Have to say that the Round of 16 wasn't quite as gripping as the Group Stage.  It did have it's moments though.  

Holland Daze Loss

Pulisic looks says it all
Photo by James Williamson - AMA/Getty Images

We knew a defeat to the Netherlands was always a real possibility but I didn't it see it going down quite like this - the US undone by three defensive lapses of varying degrees in a 1-3 loss.  As The Athletic put it:

In the end, they didn’t make just one mistake — they fell asleep on three different occasions. 

The first by Tyler Adams might have been the most shocking.  He simply failed to track back on the Dutch attacker.  For the second, Sergino Dest got pulled too far into the center and was caught ball watching.  The third was quite similar except this time it was Antonee Robinson who got burned.  Unfortunate to see this because all three had mostly good tournaments.  

I had thought Dutch technical superiority would be the US undoing, not lapses of this nature.  In some sense, maybe it did come to that difference.  Pulisic had a great scoring opportunity early but couldn't convert.  Netherlands on the other hand, did not miss when presented the scoring chances.

We did have moments of hope.  Like not collapsing but still playing reasonably even after the first goal.  The second goal just before the first half whistle was a killer.  Then Wright's unlikely score at 76 minutes to narrow the margin to 1-2 put some excitement back into the match.  That was shortlived though when Netherlands scored again at 81 minutes.

Ultimately this WC should be viewed as a step forward for the US.  They made it out of a difficult group.  At the same time, the gap between the US and top ten in the world still seems huge.

Another Team Finds They Do Better By Benching Ronaldo

Goncalo Ramos makes his manager
 look like a genius with his hat trick
Getty Images

Earlier this fall, Man United manager Erik ten Hag knew he had to make changes to get his struggling club back on track.  One of the adjustments was benching Ronaldo.  I know the arguments about confusing correlation with causality but Man United got better right away.  You couldn't really say Portugal struggled through the group stage, winning two and losing late to South Korea.  Ronaldo had just one goal (a PK in the opener).  He had tried to claim that he had redirected Fernandes' free kick  for a second goal but the 3,000 cameras and sensors around the stadium showed he didn't.  Portugal manager Fernando Santos also appeared to be annoyed by Ronaldo's reaction to being subbed in the South Korea match.  Whatever the reason, Santos started Goncalo Ramos instead of Ronaldo for what was expected to be a close match with Switzerland.  Ramos only managed a hat trick and Portugal easily dispatched the Swiss 6-1.  Causality or correlation?

Death By A Thousand Passes Indeed

Morocco manager Walid Regragui
wasn't the only one surprised by the
upset win over Spain

Spain certainly have a preferred style - control possession with lots of short passes.  The problem is unless you translate that possession into scoring chances, you can do that all day and look like you are dominating without ever threatening.  This was never more evident in their shoot out loss to Morocco.  Spain made over 1,000 passes with 90% accuracy and had 77% of possession yet managed just one shot on target.  Maybe slightly unfair because they did take 13 shots in total.  In the three matches against teams not named Costa Rica, they managed 9 shots on target in total.  This is the second straight exit from the World Cup on PKs for the Spaniards.  Sure the skills are impressive but are they enough to win; see this example here.  Dennis found some game highlights here.

Morocco have knocked off two European giants - Belgium and now Spain.  

That'll Leave a Mark

So exactly who commercialized football?

Apparently the English don't think much of Fox Sports' presentation of the World Cup.  Several readers
forwarded this review from The Guardian.  You can't argue with some of the points.  Sort of like pointing all the bad things about Qatar hosting the tournament.  On the other hand, they do miss some strong points.  And frankly, hearing complaints about the commercialism of the coverage from someone from a country where the professional football teams wear their sponsorship on their sleeves chest is rich.  Also, I have to discount anything said by a guy who thinks CBS's coverage of the Champions Leagues is enjoyable; the studio crew is absolutely wretched (sorry Micah and Jamie, we're not laughing with you, we're laughing at you).  

No mention of the solid pairing of Jacqui Oatley and Warren Barton.  He pounces on JP Dellacamera for his comment that maybe people didn't know Mbappe was really good.  Well, casual American fans might not.  And his partner, Cobi Jones is doing just fine.  Not thrilled with Landon Donovan in the studio but his work with Ian Darke isn't that bad.  John Strong and Stuart Holden are okay too.  They could ditch the on field reporting - that's adding little or nothing to the telecasts.  Not a big fan of Machnik on the rules analysis but Mark Clattenburg (not mentioned in the article!) is doing an excellent job in that regard.

In the end, I guess the article can't be that far off given that I am looking forward to getting back to the Peacock/USA team.  

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve (before Morocco-Spain shootout): Fair to say that Bono has The Edge over Unai Simon?

Dennis (after the shootout): Well Spain still haven't found what they're looking for

The Rest

There were five other matches of varying watchability.  Brazil pasted South Korea 4-1.  Senegal started well against England but were eventually outplayed 3-0.  The Argentina - Australia match got exciting only because of an own goal at 77 minutes; Argentina were simply better.  The Aussies (not going to use the stupid official nickname Socceroos) managed just one shot on target.  France took awhile to get going but Olivier Giroud gave them a lead late in the first half they would not relinquish; since we feel Giroud never gets enough credit, we make his goal this week's YouTubeableMoment.  In theory the Japan - Croatia that went to PKs should have been exciting but all I can remember is how shockingly bad the Japanese were in the shootout.

World Cup Is Just Euros With Guests?

Well, with regular guests from South America.  We are in the 10th World Cup since 1986.  That means there have been 80 quarterfinalists.  Of those 80, 52 (65%) have been from Europe, as in, on average, the quarters include at least five teams from Europe.  Another 20 came from South America.  That means just 8 teams from the rest of the world have ever seen the quarters.  Those select 8 include Mexico (86), Cameroon (90), Senegal (02), US (02), South Korea (02), Ghana (10), Costa Rica (14) and Morocco (22).  Brazil are the most frequent participant, making the quarters 9 out of 10 times.  Next are Germany with 8; note that they made it in every WC from '86 to '14 but now have missed two in a row.  Argentina have 7 appearances while England and France have 6 each.  Full list of multiple participants below:

Brazil - 9

Germany (including West Germany)- 8

Argentina - 7

England - 6

France - 6

Netherlands - 5

Italy - 4

Spain - 4

Belgium - 3

Croatia - 3

Sweden - 2

Portugal - 2

Uruguay - 2

Looking at the tournament since 1986, 19 European, 5 South American, 4 African, 3 North American, and 1 Asian countries have ever made it to the quarters.  A very exclusive club.  I chose 1986 because in 1982 there were no quarterfinals but rather a second group stage that consisted of four groups of three teams.  In 1978 and earlier, the tournament only had 16 teams.

Again looking back only through 1986, the list of teams that have made the semi-finals is short - just 16.  Of the 36 prior slots, 27 went to European sides, 8 to South American sides and 1 from Asia.  In this year's crop of quarterfinalists, all but Morocco have been to the semis at least once.  Brazil and France lead with four appearances, Argentina and Netherlands have three each, and England and Croatia have made it twice.  

 

Quarterfinals

The matchup to watch is England - France (2 pm Saturday)  At 538 they have it at 52-48 for England.    Croatia surely look the underdog against Brazil (10 am Friday), who will see Neymar return from injury; that's 77/23 at 538.  Morocco's task against Portugal (10 am Saturday) is daunting. No African team has every reached the semi-finals of the World Cup and Portugal are 68/32 favorites at 538.  Netherlands - Argentina is a tasty match up between two countries that have been here before; 538 has it 58/42 favor Argentina.  I'm holding out hope for an exciting contest here (2 pm on Friday).

Work and other things considered, hope to post Tuesday morning to go over the semi-finals.