Rinse and Repeat

The weekend seemed almost a carbon copy of last.  Frustrating draw for Newcastle, Union eek out a win, Aston Villa roll.  The problem is that cycle only works for two of the three teams.  

Luckiest Unlucky Draw Ever

Or maybe the unluckiest lucky draw.  Whichever, it was frustrating and nerve-wracking.  The Magpies were out early against Watford and Sean Longstaff's goal at 23 minutes was no less than they deserved, even if it really should have been stopped by Watford keeper Ben Foster.  There would be more first-half opportunities, including a wide open chance for Longstaff, that were not converted, leading to the inevitable question as to whether Newcastle would later rue these missed chances.  

If Murphy shots low,
does Foster have a chance?

Of course the answer was yes.  Sarr leveled things at 72 minutes.  Wait, it gets worse.  Josh King looked to have given Watford the game winner at 87 minutes.  Fortunately, VAR intervened to point out, correctly, that King was offside.  Breathing again I reminded myself that going in I fully accepted that a draw would be a good result.  Except, in stoppage time, there goes Jacob Murphy in on goal all alone and three points look possible.  But for some reason Murphy lifts it instead of keeping it on the deck and this time Foster makes the save.  The final is 1-1.

Championship division quality finishing on display here, highlighting how much Newcastle miss Callum Wilson.  Stats are mostly even, except for expected goals.  Certainly feels like a lost two points.  So they are starting to play better even though it's not translating into wins.  They do climb out of the bottom three.    Gonna be another long slog.

Not In My Hause

It wasn't in their house but Aston Villa went to Old Trafford and gave Man United fits.  Both had some legitimate chances but the match went to the 88th minute level at 0-0.  Just when we started thinking that this would be a great draw for Villa, Kortney Hause drilled a header past deGea; we make it this week's YouTubeableMoment; though not a big fan in general, we do like the Andres Cantor call here.  Do we dare think about taking all three points?

We shouldn't, as goalscorer Hause gets whistled for handling in the box in the 92nd minute.  On the soft side for us, even looks like it might have come off his chest first.  However, his arm was well-extended from his body.  Bad thing to do given that Mike Dean never shies away from a chance to make a dramatic call.  I think I saw Ronaldo a bit upset that Fernandes stepped up to take the kick.  Might have been the better choice given that Fernandes skied the shot over the cross bar.  As Ted Lasso says, "ya gotta git it in to get three points" or in this case one point.  

Maybe a draw was the right score.  Sure, United outshot them 28-7, possession was 60/40 and xG favored the Red Devils.  However, the xG advantage is mostly due to the PK and shots on target were only 4-3 favor United.   So Villa clearly played well here and any points were deserved.  

Jesus Saves Scores

I didn't watch Chelsea v Man City - arguably the marquee match of the weekend - because I saw the score while watching Man United - Aston Villa.  Everything I read suggests that the 1-0 final in favor of City actually flatters Chelsea.  City had the possession advantage 60/40, shots were 15-5 and shots on target were 4-0; hard to score without a shot on target.  

The Wrong Kind of  Hat Trick

Jamie Vardy got three goals in Leicester's 2-2 draw with Burnley.  Astute mathematicians may spot a problem there and you would be correct.  The first of the three was an own goal, a misdirected attempt at a clearing header that beat Schmeichel.  Fortunately for Vardy, the next two went in the correct net, both times bringing the Foxes back from one goal deficits.  Even that almost wasn't enough, as Burnley appeared to have snatched a game winner in stoppage time only to see it called back by the VAR, correctly, for offside.  That this is not your father's Leicester is plainly on display now as they struggle to get a draw with Burnley and sit 13th in the table with a goal differential of -3.  Plenty of time to turn things around but there are many sides vying for those spots from 5th to 8th.

Derby in Name Only

If Arsenal v Tottenham was a big test for both sides, our read is that somebody gave the Gunners the answers before the test and/or Tottenham did not bother to study.  The advantage doesn't really show in the final statistics (except of course the 3-1 final in favor of Arsenal) but anybody who watched could tell you this one was over in about 30 minutes.  Most distressing from Spurs' perspective was that aside from being 0-3 down by the 34th minute, they looked lifeless.  The second half was somewhat more even but how much of that was Arsenal playing safe with the big lead?  

Other Things

Raul back on the scoresheet where he belongs

With Chelsea and Man United, going down, only Liverpool remain unbeaten. Of course, the Reds didn't win either but at least they got a 3-3 draw with Brentford, who continue to punch above their weight.  Conversely,  none of the unvictorious five were able to break through.  As we noted, Newcastle and Burnley got draws.  Southampton (0-1 to Wolves on the first goal for Raul Jiminez since his return from a fractured skull), Norwich (0-2 to Everton) and Leeds (1-2 to West Ham) got nothing.  These five, not surprisingly, inhabit the bottom five spots in the table.

After the results of Saturday-Sunday, Brighton entered Monday's clash with Crystal Palace with a chance to go top of the table.  Mostly what happened was they had a chance to drop all three points at Selhurst Park.  Only a cheeky chip from Maupay in the 95th minute allowed them to escape with a 1-1 draw.  Still, they sit 6th in the table with four wins, a draw and a loss; pretty good for a side that usually finds itself in the relegation mess.

I Lost to Sheriff (apologies to Bob Marley)

The Thill is not gone: Sebastien Thill gets
 the game winner in Madrid

Our favorite Moldavan club was at it again, but this one was really audacious, as they took the measure of Real Madrid, at the Bernabeu no less.  Didn't see it while wasting my time watching PSG handle Man City.  The Wasps actually led for much of the match, until RM got a soft PK at 65 minutes.  Not to worry as Sheriff did not lay down and there was Sebastien Thill getting a game winner in the 89th minute.  The stats are ridiculous in favor of RM: possession was 76-24, shots 31-4, shots on target 11-3, corners 13-0 and xG 3.35 - .4.  Must have been the intangibles.  In any case, Sheriff are top of Group C through two matches.  Probably shouldn't "book" them just yet for the knockout stage but they do have a five point lead over third place Inter Milan. Maybe should clear your schedule for that matchup (10/19 at 3 pm).

Barely Enough

The Union slipped past Atlanta 1-0 at home and settled for a 1-1 road draw with the Harrison Pink Cows New York Red Bulls. Despite these results, their playoff berth is hardly secure.

Against Atlanta, the U took the wrong page out of the Newcastle playbook, missing way too many good opportunities; maybe Guzan deserves a little credit there.  Anyway, they had the upper hand all day but had nothing to show for it.  Finally, Jose Martinez did some great work on the endline to get a pass to shuhBILLkoh in the box and he slipped the shot past heretofore unbeatable Guzan.  You can see Martinez handiwork and shuhBILLkoh's shot here.  Atlanta really didn't threaten much all day so it didn't feel all that shaky from there on in.  Yeah, it helped that again that their opponent was missing a key player (Josef Martinez) but everybody has to deal with that.  The win looked right on paper and on the field.  

Santos goal was enough to get a draw
Photo:Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Move to Wednesday night in Harrison NJ.  Santos got them an early lead with a volley off his thigh from a Glesnes flick on.  Unfortunately, Hernandez got it back in the 37th minute.  The Union did have a defensive focus for this one and it showed; neither team really offered much of a threat in the second half.  This one looked like a draw on paper and on the field.

Seven points from three games sounds great, right?  Except they still sit 5th in the table, a mere two points ahead of 8th place Montreal.  Lose at home to Columbus this weekend and the Crew will only be two points back as well.  With eight games remaining, almost everything in the Eastern Conference, except first place, is up for grabs.  Imagine where they'd be without those seven points.  

Cramming Them In

EPL will feature 10 games over Saturday and Sunday so you'll probably have to pick your spots.

The big one is first place Liverpool vs second place Man City on Sunday at 11:30 (NBCSN).  Both teams are in great form (excluding perhaps City's 0-2 midweek Champions League loss to PSG) so this one should be close.

We will definitely tune in for Saturday morning's 7:30 contest (NBCSN) between Man United and Everton.  Both are 4-1-1.  I guess there's a chance United will dominate but I have some hope that Benitez will come up with a good game plan.

With Newcastle at Molyneaux to face Wolves (Saturday 10 am Peacock), I'm not thinking this is the weekend that the Magpies get their first win.  A draw would be a fabulous result here.  Aston Villa have a tall task too, taking on Spurs in London (Sunday 9 am Peacock); I rate their chances only slightly better than Newcastle's.  Still, I would have put this one on NBCSN over the Crystal Palace - Leicester contest at the same time but that's just me.  Actually, it would be my third choice for Sunday at 9, as West Ham v Brentford might be more interesting too.  I guess if you're looking for a competitive match, maybe Palace - Leicester is a good choice, but only because the Foxes have underperformed this year.

The NBC feature match at 12:30 on Saturday is Brighton vs Arsenal.  Strange choice for feature match but what's really weird is that 583 has this one at 37/35 in favor of the Seagulls with a 28% chance of draw.  Sure it's at Amex Stadium but really?    Leeds - Watford on NBCSN Saturday at 10 doesn't really put a tingle down my spine.  Somebody's going to get points at Turf Moor when Burnley host Norwich.  Odds are that the Clarets get their first win and Norwich remain pointless.  Chelsea - Southampton also square off at 10; you can see that one on USA.

I'll be at Subaru Park Sunday afternoon for another critical Union contest as they take on the Columbus Crew.  A win is important, not losing is essential.   Looks like 538 has the U has serious favorites. 

The Octagon Returns

We're heading into another international break and the USMNT will do that three games in seven days thing again.  First up is Jamaica in Austin on Thursday at 7:45.  Sunday they travel to face Panama at 6 pm.  They close out the break hosting Costa Rica on Wednesday (10/13) in Columbus.  In case you forgot, the standings through the first three matches are here.  A good look at some of the relevant topics for these matches is here.  This section of the US fan base agrees that seven points is the right number out of these three fixtures.  Gotta beat Jamaica at home.  Draw with Panama wouldn't be terrible.  Should beat Costa Rica at home.  I suppose five points wouldn't be disaster but dropped points here and there just reduce the room for error near the end.

The break also means European WC qualifiers so if I don't see you next week, don't forget those matches run from Friday 10/8 to Tuesday 10/12. 

Move over 6911, there's a new venue in town

We leave you with a picture of Michael B's new man cave, possibly the besting soccer viewing venue in Northwest Philly.  If only Michael still followed the EPL.  
 

One or Two Steps Up, No Steps Back

 Mostly better results for the BFS sides this weekend plus some thoroughly entertaining stuff.

If It Quacks Like a Duck

Classic early deficit for Newcastle

On paper, the Newcastle - Leeds match looked to be a draw, the match I saw on TV looked like a draw and the stats suggest it was a draw.  This one had a very unsatisfying start, as Raphinha sent a long cross into the box that ended up untouched in the goal.  Darlow was held in place by the run of a Leeds attacker and Lascelles didn't play the ball either.  The cross was superb so Leeds probably deserved a goal out of it but still frustrating to watch.  Fortunately Newcastle did have a viable counterattack going (actually whole first half was frantic back-and-forth attacking) and Saint-Maximin did level things with a fine goal of his own just before half.  We make it this week's runner up YouTubeableMoment.  The second half wasn't as action-packed; there were some chances for both, but neither side could break the deadlock.  On balance, while it was pins and needles for Magpie fans, this one was entertaining for the neutral.

A Noble Gesture?

Speaking of entertaining, the best viewing of the weekend was West Ham versus Man United with something for everyone.  Ronaldo fans got treated to another goal.  Ronaldo haters got treated to seeing him denied at least three penalty shouts, though in truth one of them might actually have been a penalty.  West Ham did have an early lead that was erased with the Ronaldo goal.  Great stuff to watch even though the match entered the late stages still at 1-1. Last week's goat for Man United (but last year's hero for West Ham) broke that deadlock with a sweet strike in the 89th minute.

That looked like the game winner until Luke Shaw was whistled for handling in the box.  Providing fodder for pundits and armchair managers everywhere, David Moyes chose to bring on Mark Noble to take the PK.  No doubt that Noble is good at this.  Stepping onto the pitch, his conversion rate in EPL matches was 90.5% (38 for 42).  Now he is down to 88.4%, as his attempt was mediocre at best and was easily saved by deGea, who had been 0 for his last 21 in stopping PKs dating back to October 2014.  I suppose if I searched harder I might find some support for Moyes here but the criticism looks to be universal - from the BFS text stream to the newspapers to the pundit shows.  You can see the play from the WHU fans' perspective in this video we will label the agony of de feet.

Who Are Those Guys?

Another fun match was Aston Villa - Everton.  This one was close, until it wasn't.  For 60+ minutes the sides traded chances.  Then, in a matter of 10 minutes, it was over.  First there was a great run and even better strike from Matty Cash.  Then an own goal from Luca Digne.  The final nail was this goal from summer acquisition Leon Bailey.  And suddenly, as Arlo White put it, Villa had taken Everton to the cleaners.  Nice to know some expressions work on both sides of the pond.

Another Gentleman's C?

For the second week in a row, Arsenal barely passed what should have been a relatively easy test, shading Burnley 1-0.  Sure, it's hard to play at Turf Moor.  Still, that looked like a draw to me.  The stats suggest a draw; actually xG says Burnley 1.55-1.20.  Claret fans will feel hard done that a foul in the box by Ramsdale (wait, he started over Leno? what's up with that?) was questioned by the VAR and overturned by Anthony Taylor after he went to the monitor - and watched the whole play this time!  For me, this was correct given the EPL's directive that about fouls in the box.

Consecutive 1-0 wins over 19th and 20th in the table is no way to go through life in the EPL - unless you're Newcastle.  This must be unacceptable for Gunners fans.  Big test on Sunday as they face Spurs.

Speaking of Spurs, they did no better with 11 on the field for the whole match, falling to Chelsea 0-3.  First half was actually pretty even, ending at 0-0.  Things, uh, unraveled in the second half.  I'm tempted to say the final score is unfair to Spurs, given that the second goal was a wicked deflection off Dier and the third goal came in stoppage time.  On the other hand, xG says this was Chelsea 2.45-.9, not exactly close.  

In Other Action

I did see Brentford take Wolves 2-0; the Bees are certainly defying the early season predictions of a tough year in the top tier.  Long way to go though.  

Liverpool took their sweet time dispatching Crystal Palace but the 3-0 final looks about right so the Red Devils kept pace with Chelsea and Man United.  Not so for Man City, who apparently huffed and puffed but could not break through against Southampton.  Part of the explanation might be that despite 16 shots, they managed just one on target.  The Saints now have four consecutive draws including ties with Man United, Man City, West Ham and Newcastle.  One of these is not like the others.

Man City's struggle allowed for the winner of the Brighton - Leicester match to slip into 4th place.  That would be Brighton.  The Seagulls have four wins against just one loss.  Most of the wins are not exactly top of the table types but you can only beat who you play.  Must be nice to put up 12 points quickly to keep the early relegation noise to a minimum.  Rounding out the week, Watford kept Norwich pointless with a 3-1 win on the road.

After five matches, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man United have no losses while Southampton, Newcastle, Leeds, Burnley and Norwich still have yet to win.

Which Cazoo are you?

Who Are Cazoo?

Did you notice that Aston Villa - Everton match was the Claret Cazoos versus the White Cazoos?  So what exactly is a Cazoo?  It is a British on-line car retailer based in London apparently making enough money to sponsor two EPL teams and host of lower division sides as well.  More details here.

The U Move in the Right Direction

A mixture of satisfaction and relief at Subaru Park as the Union got a key 3-1 win over Orlando City.  With the early run of play, the Kai Wagner's late first half goal seemed like a just reward.  As I was commenting to Jeff K about the Union going flat in the second half, Ruan's header off a great cross leveled things at 57 minutes.  Maybe the most important moment of the season was the Union response to that goal.  They got right back on attack and shuhBILLkoh put them back on top after some lovely work along the byline by Monteiro and Bedoya.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  They added a third with a PK after Santos was brought down in the box.

They say speed kills - Santos in full stride

Yes, it was a shorthanded Orlando, playing without Nani and Andres Perea.  The Union have played without key players at times.  Yes, shuhBILLkoh may have indeed fouled Schlegel prior to the Union's first goal.  Though there was confusion, as the AR did raise his flag; the official explanation looks to be that referee Alan Kelly played advantage but Orlando lost the ball (helpful explanation here).  Okay, maybe shuhBILLkoh could have been red carded there but VAR is supposed to look at that.  We heard that the Disciplinary Board might have a second look at it but as of this writing, no word.

Many fine performances here.  Bedoya's work on the left wing in the first half was excellent.  Flach ran his usual 20 miles or so.  Santos was a big help as a sub when speed was needed. Also, very happy to see that Curtin doesn't wait anymore to sub out Bedoya before he runs out of gas.  

Still a ton of work to do but this would be one of those signature wins that define a season.  

If You Still Carabao It Cup

Round of 32 matches were this week.  If you care, results and fixtures are available here.

No World Cup for You?

Selection for the 2026 World Cup venues was a topic this week.  As noted in this article, the committee was in Philly checking out the Linc.  The odds seem stack against the city, an unlucky combination of geography and politics.  Still, I will find it particularly galling if Gillette Stadium is selected over Lincoln Financial Field.  Inconvenient location outside of Boston and they'll have to lay natural grass on top of the artificial turf.  But as Tannenwald notes, FIFA will do whatever it wants.

Momentum?

Important weekend as Newcastle and the Union have chances to build on last week's results.  Plus several big EPL match ups.  

But first a rant.  Are you effing kidding me?  The powers-that-be have scheduled both Chelsea - Man City and Man United - Aston Villa for 7:30 Saturday morning.  And the latter is only available on Peacock.  What are they thinking?  Obviously Chelsea - MCI is the match of the weekend (sorry North London derby fans).  Chelsea have been hot, City less so but this figures to be a good one.  The Man United - Villa match doesn't look as tight on paper but I think it could still be a good watch; remember that the Villans gave Chelsea a hard time a few weeks ago.  Might have something to do with the Ryder Cup, although that only affects NBC, not NBCSN so not clear what's up.  No consideration for the fans here.  I kid, mostly, but this does seem to be poor choice, especially when you look at the 10 am fixtures.

One of those 10 am matches is Watford - Newcastle (on Peacock) that surely can be of interest only to the die-hard fans of those two sides.  Of course, it is a big one for both teams, as both are likely to find themselves in, say, the bottom five or six come later this season.  At 538 they have Watford as a slight favorite (38% to 35% with 26% chance of a draw).  Ideally, we'd like a win here but on the road I will say now I'd be happy with a draw.

The 10 am match that gets TV is the less-than-stellar Leicester hosting winless Burnley.  The other 10 am matches on Peacock are Everton - Norwich (anything less than Toffee win here will be unacceptable) and Leeds - West Ham (probably would be fun to watch if none of the others catch your fancy).

Feature match at 12:30 on NBCSN (not NBC because of Ryder Cup) is Brentford - Liverpool.  The Bees fans are probably thrilled with their start and may feel there's nothing to lose here.  But they will be up against it.

Big London derby on Sunday at 11:30 between Arsenal and Tottenham.  Neither have been impressive lately but there has to be a result here.  I wonder if this is the last test for Arteta; a draw or better and he sticks around but a loss would be the end of the road?  You can warm up for the derby with what looks like a competitive match with Southampton hosting Wolves at 9 am on NBCSN.  Only one point separates them but my sense is that Southampton have had some good luck while the Wolves have not.

On Monday, fourth place Brighton travels to Selhurst Park to face Crystal Palace at 3 pm on NBCSN.  The Eagles can be tough there so the Seagles Seagulls will have work to do; I smell an entertaining draw.

The Union take on Atlanta at friendly Subaru Park looking to build on the win over Orlando.  This one is at 3:30 but coverage is limited to Univision and TUDN; I wonder if this another English broadcast on the Spanish station.  If it's not in English, a good chance to learn some more Spanish.

Well That Went Well...Not

Eesh, not much good to report for Newcastle, the Union or even Football Manager for that matter.  

Three Goal Losses 

Saturday was particularly galling as I watched three clubs of interest - on delay no less - lose by three goals.  Start off with Tottenham's wretched effort at Selhurst Park.  The Eagles were already outplaying Spurs when Tanganga got himself sent off for two yellows in the space of five minutes.  Took a little while for Crystal Palace to take advantage but take advantage they did and the 3-0 final looks totally representative of what we saw on the pitch.  

Proceed to Old Trafford for the EPL re-debut of Christian Ronaldo.  As expected, the Magpies were set up in their defensive 5-3-2 shape.  They absorbed the pressure well and managed some counter attacks so we were prepared to go in at half happy at 0-0.  Except Ronaldo scored in stoppage time.  We argue this was bad luck as opposed to anything special from CR7.  The ball was deflected off a Newcastle defender, which meant that Woodman didn't handle it as cleanly as he should have and of course the rebound fell at Ronaldo's feet.  Newcastle did level things with a rare goal from Manquillo (ironically in the line up over Jacob Murphy for defensive purposes).  But Ronaldo got a second, more deserved this time, shortly thereafter, STAYING ON HIS FEET for a change and getting off a nice shot that beat Woodman in the five hole.  I was preparing to feel pretty good about a 1-2 loss except MUN added two late goals to make the final 4-1.  This one felt like 2-1 and xG mostly backs me up.  Sure, a loss but not awful.

We closed the day out with Chelsea - Aston Villa.  The final says 3-0 but our eyes tell us that Villa were the better side.  The stats, especially xG, suggest our eyes did not deceive us.  This was at worst a draw.

So we had a big goose egg for Saturday, though we suspect Jeff H was okay with proceedings.

A Little Help Here?

Though my initial reaction to results elsewhere was "thanks a lot guys," closer inspection says overall, Newcastle may have gotten some help.  The Palace win wasn't helpful, nor was Southampton's 0-0 draw with West Ham.  But Arsenal did their job - barely - with a 1-0 win over Norwich; didn't see the match but it reads like the Gunners pushed the Canaries all over the place yet only managed the one goal.  Though the Wolves 2-0 win over Watford pushed them past Newcastle in the table, we are more realistically worried about Watford in the relegation battle so this was fine.  Thoroughly enjoyable match on Monday as Everton rallied from 0-1 to handle Burnley 3-1.  A 90th minute goal got Brighton a 1-0 win over previously unbeaten Brentford; we might have preferred a draw there.

And how sad is it that I'm already closely following results at the bottom of the table?

Meanwhile, In Another Part of Town

Liverpool took care of shorthanded Leeds (more on that below) 3-0. Earlier this year we noted that Leeds can be like a chicken with its head cut off - running around not knowing it's already dead.  A man down, we will suggest they run around like a chicken with its head and one leg cut off; they just don't know any other way.  It does make for entertaining football though.  Man City look to have run Leicester City all over the map but only have a 1-0 win to show for it.

So we have four teams (Man United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Everton) at 3-1-0; the first three also have a goal differential of +8 but United are top based on goals scored.  

Elliott Down

One of the few pleasures so far this year has been watching my Forest Green Football Manager star, Harvey Elliott, perform live for Liverpool.  Even that has been taken away, as he suffered a dislocated ankle after a tackle in the match with Leeds.  The good news is that he had successful surgery and is expected back this season.  No timeframe was given for his comeback.  I am not a doctor, nor do I play one on TV; however, checking the web suggests likely a 12-week recovery before sport-specific training can begin.  That would put him back in the line up maybe by the beginning of the year.

Struijk beats Elliott to the ball and does not come
 thru him after the challenge

The Leeds player who made the tackle, Pascal Struijk, received a red card for the challenge.  I argue this was a case of sanctioning to the injury, not the challenge - reminiscent of Son's tackle on Gomez last year.  Craig Pawson was in excellent position to see the play and made no call at the time. Very confusing as to whether or how much  the fourth official or VAR were involved but Pawson ended up showing Struijk a red card, without going to check out the play himself on the monitor.  I have watched the video and while it's not pretty, it's not as gruesome as you might think.  I include a still picture (sorry for the quality) of the first part of the challenge.  As you can clearly see, this was NOT a tackle from behind.  I remind people all the time, getting the ball does not mean there might not be a foul.  But the direction of the tackle is not into Elliott; the collision after the tackle is as much Elliott's momentum as Struijk's.  There is quite a bit of support that this was not a red card.  However, as with the handling case a few week's ago, the authorities do not agree with me; the league rejected an appeal of the red card.  

Fortunately for me, Elliott's injury in real life has no impact on his play for me in Football Manager, as the game separates from reality the moment you start.  Think about that statement for a minute.

A quick note on Forest Green.  After blowing through League One last year, we are finding life in the Championship Division a bit more rigorous.  Through five matches we have two wins, two draws and a loss.  Plus we are already out of the League Cup.  My initial thought is that while we are good enough to stay up promotion at the first time of asking may be beyond our reach.

Mortuary Ball of the Week

We all know about a hospital ball, a pass so weak that it subjects the recipient to heavy contact, possibly requiring hospitalization.  I add a new term this week - a mortuary ball - a pass so bad it leaves your teammate for dead.  We have two excellent examples this week.

First Tyrone Mings ruined 49 minutes of superb play by Aston Villa with this back pass.  Instead of 0-1, Villa were now down 0-2 on the road to Chelsea.  As bad as that was, we're going with this one from Man United's Jesse (oh to be back at West Ham) Lingard.  Maybe only marginally more egregious than Mings', the context elevates it to our winner.  The play cost United a point in Champions League group stage play, with the late goal giving Young Boys all three points.  An ugly day for the Red Devils as a Ronaldo goal had given them a lead but Wan-Bissaka's red card at 35 minutes allowed the Young Boys back into the match.

No CONCACAF Champions League Final for U

We know it was a long shot, coming home 0-2 to Club America.  There was always a chance though if they could get the first goal.  Club America did well to confound, confuse and otherwise annoy the Union for the first 30 minutes.  Then, our guys started to grow into the game and arguably had the run of play the rest of the night.  That advantage on the field was about to show up on the scoreboard when shuhBILLkoh was fouled in the box.  Unfortunately, Ochoa saved Monteiro's take, then saved Burke's rebound attempt.  Monteiro's take was actually pretty good; maybe you fault him for telegraphing the attempt too much but Ochoa was fully extended and the ball was at a difficult height.  This was likely the turning point of the match so we make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Club America got a deflected goal (second one of the tie) and a late one in stoppage to make this a 0-2 final (0-4 on aggregate).

A spirited two-leg effort from the Union.  Failure to convert the chances they had and maybe a little bad luck - CA had two deflected goals and a softish PK.  We won't blame referee Said Martinez for the loss but we will fault him on two fronts.  First, have some balls and show yellow cards for persistent delay of game on free kicks.  After one or maybe two warnings to move back, show the damn yellow card.  Finger wagging and arm gestures don't stop that behavior.  Second, the foul on shuhBILLkoh should have been red for DOGSO.  The double jeopardy clause only applies if there was a legitimate attempt to tackle the ball.  In this case, the defender grabbed CatsPurr's shoulder.  

Sucks To Be Right Sometimes

Last week I warned that it was possible that by the time the Union kicked off against Orlando on Sunday afternoon, they could find themselves in 9th place.  The dreaded "results elsewhere" have conspired to make it happen.  Actually, it could get even worse, as Columbus play Saturday and could climb past the Union with a win against New England.

The good news is that the Union have a game or two in hand on several of the teams above them.  The bad news is that only matters if you get results in those matches.  So upcoming home matches with Orlando and Atlanta take on critical importance.

The participation in Champions League was both valuable and cool.  But failure to make the playoffs will take most (all) of the sheen off that accomplishment.

There's A New Sheriff in Town (hat tip Bob K)

Sheriff's name comes from a
company in the region
 but the badge is a more fun image

Making their Champions League group stage debut this week was Fotbal Club Sheriff, often referred to as Sheriff Tiraspol, or even more simply, Sheriff.  Where to begin?  Well, of course their emblem is a badge, though the name derives from a company in the region.  What region is that you might ask?  They are a Moldovan club based in Tiraspol.  Except Tiraspol is a city located in the unrecognized Pridnestovian Moldavian Republic, otherwise known as Transnistria.  For those wishing to continue the geo-political lesson, click here.  The narrow strip of land that constitutes Transnistria looks like a gerrymandered Republican Congressional district.

But we digress.  The club has had some success, qualifying for Europa four times and Champions League twice.  Their group stage debut went swimmingly as they bested Shakhtar Donetsk 2-0 and sit atop Group D. Ya done good, guys.  

Try Again

On paper, two best matches of the weekend involve the BFS sides.  Newcastle host Leeds Friday afternoon at 3 pm (NBCSN).  Two sides with more differing philosophies I don't think you'll find.  Leeds are a car with no reverse or even neutral gear while Newcastle are a bus that is frequently parked.  The Magpies figure to be under pressure the whole time.  Some optimism here because they did manage decent counters against Man United and should have more luck with those counters against a weaker side, particularly one missing some key defenders.  

For the second straight week, Aston Villa are the 12:30 Saturday feature match on NBC, this time against Everton.  This should be fun, two evenly matched sides that offer attractive football.  Highly recommended.  

Best action at the top of the table is a London Derby featuring Tottenham - Chelsea at 11:30 on Sunday (curiously only on Peacock).  Both are coming off unimpressive performances.  Chelsea have only allowed one goal so far while Spurs are averaging less than one per game; they'll have to change that trend to get a result. The other topside match of interest is West Ham hosting Man United (Sunday at 9 am on NBCSN).  Though both are undefeated, the Red Devils are in much better form.

Liverpool and Man City have every chance to stay close to the top with home matches against Crystal Palace and Southampton respectively.  Both of those are at 10 am on Saturday.  However, my choice for that time slot is Burnley - Arsenal, which is conveniently available on NBCSN.  Having barely passed one test against Norwich last week, Mikel Arteta and the Gunners face a tougher side, on the road.  

Saturday morning early risers can take in Wolves - Brentford at 7:30 Saturday on NBCSN.  Relegation candidates Norwich and Watford square off at 10 am Saturday on Peacock.  Rounding out the schedule is Brighton - Leicester Sunday at 9 on Peacock.  They are 6th and 9th respectively, though the order is reversed from what you might expect.  This could be a pretty good watch if Brighton continue their early season form.

We'll be at Subaru Park Sunday afternoon at 4 to see the Union take on Orlando City.  Trite to say but this is a critical contest.  ESPN seems to agree, as they will be televising the game.  Three points is practically a must.  

I hear that doing the same thing over and over again but expecting different results is the definition of insanity.  But I'll be watching again this weekend.

On the Road Again

(apologies to Willie Nelson)

The good news is that despite travel to the Delaware and Maryland coasts, I was able to catch all the key games.  The bad news is that they included some pretty crappy results.  We'll go in sort of reverse chronological order, with my memory getting worse the farther back we go.

We Knew Him When

The USMNT was about 45 minutes away from a disastrous opening to the Octogan, CONCACAF's final step in World Cup qualifying.  With a sort of acceptable 0-0 draw on the road to El Salvador and an unacceptable home 1-1 draw to Canada already in the books, the US were down 0-1 on the road in Honduras.  Worse than the score itself was the fact that it was totally merited, with the US looking like a team only in that they were wearing the same uniforms.

Berhalter changed the formation back to a more familiar 4-3-3 and put in Antonee Robinson, Lletget and former Union star Brenden Aaronson.  That worked out swimmingly.  Robinson scored in the 48th minute, Aaronson in the 86th minute and Lletget in the 93rd minute.  Throw in a 75th minute tally from Pepi and there's your 4-1 final.  Instead of finishing the first round of matches in 5th or 6th, the goals were enough to move the US past Panama into third.   

Brenden Aaronson (c): We'd buy him a beer but he's not old enough
 Photo:Brad Smith/ISI Photos/Getty Images

After a lackluster performance against El Salvador, Brendon Aaronson has stepped up to be a key part of the team.  He got the only US goal in the draw with Canada; he actually started the play with a nifty steal of the ball, then continued his run into the box and put away the cross from Antonee Robinson.  Against Honduras, he was a key factor in changing the tone of the match, he was involved in the second goal and scored the third one on a nice break with Pepi (who had a great game too!).   

Great that Berhalter was able to turn things around with halftime adjustments.  But this first round of qualifiers should be a warning that nothing is easy these days in WC qualifying.  Mexico is finding this out too; sure, they have two wins and a draw but needed a late goal to beat Jamaica, only managed a PK in a 1-0 win over Costa Rica and drew 1-1 Panama with another latish goal.  Maybe the US needed a reminder that this ain't the Gold Cup.

The State of the Union

In two words - not good.  Since we last spoke, there were losses to DC United (3-1) and New England (0-1).  Against DC, we had an early lead but saw that disappear by early in the second half.  In contrast to earlier matches when the Union were down a goal, we can't say that Curtin threw caution to the wind; his substitutions looked like for like to me.  Didn't help as they conceded a third goal in stoppage time.  I don't see anything in the statistics to say this was not an accurate result.

The New England game was more frustrating.  I don't remember the Union being seriously outplayed but they were down 0-1 after a 33rd minute goal from Polster.  Prospects were looking up though when Traustason got a second yellow at 59 minutes.  The Union were on the front foot from there on out but could not find a goal.  All the stats says this was at worst a draw suggesting that finishing is becoming a problem again. 

After this rough patch, the Union sit 5th, though they are 6th in points per game.  The Union's CONCACAF Champions League semi-final second leg against Club America means almost every team plays two games before the Union's next MLS match on Sunday 9/19.   By kick-off of that game, they could conceivably be sitting as low as 9th in the table.  Nothing like a little pressure for the home matches versus Orlando City and Atlanta.

The Luck (or Unluck) of the Draw

Going back to EPL action two weekends ago...wait, you can't expect me to remember much about them.  I do recall a lot of draws, some deserved, others not so much.  

For example, Newcastle were wretched in the first half at home versus Southampton and should have been down at least 0-2; they were lucky to escape 0-0.  They were better in the second half and even had a 1-0 lead for a time.  They were heading towards a 1-1 draw when out of nothing, ASM got what could have been the game winner in the 91st minute.  Ah, but this is Newcastle, and the Magpies coughed up a PK in the last minute of stoppage time and had to settle for a 2-2 final.  Really hard to say they were unlucky given how bad they were at times and the stats back up that contention.  In fact, though they gave up the tying goal in stoppage time, they were lucky to escape with a draw.

Aston Villa could do no better than 1-1 versus newbies (new Bees?) Brentford.  Didn't see the match but stats suggest this was a fair result, even mildly flattering to Aston Villa.  Other draws included West Ham - Crystal Palace (2-2), Burnley - Leeds (1-1) and Liverpool - Chelsea (1-1 - more on that one below).

We also have the curious case of dopplegangers Tottenham and Wolves.  Through three matches, Spurs are unbeaten and untied, winning each match 1-0.  And yet, the stats say they may have been a bit lucky.  The recent 1-0 win over Watford looks okay if not overwhelming.  But the wins over Wolves and Man City look like they were stolen, with Spurs outplayed.  On the other side, Wolves have lost all three of their matches 0-1.  And yet the stats say they could be undefeated.  Having seen most of each teams games, some of this does come down to luck.  But maybe, it's also a function of clinical finishing.  Just putting that out there.

Dead Man Coaching?

Arsenal's home match with Man City was always going to be a tester.  When Granit Xhaka got sent off for a rash challenge with City already up 2-0, it turned into a turkey shoot.  The final was 5-0.  The Gunners have lost all three matches so far, failed to score a goal, and sit last in the table with a -9 goal differential.  Okay, losses to Chelsea and Man City might have been anticipated.  And their next two matches are Norwich and Burnley.  Failure to win either of those might be enough to get Arteta sacked.  Even if they get two wins, after that comes Spurs at home.  Maybe that's the decision point.

Handling (Again)

A big play in the Liverpool - Chelsea match was the sending off of Reece James for DOGSO just before halftime.  Mo Salah converted the PK to level things at 1-1 but Chelsea would do a superb job of defending the entire second half despite being a man down.

The play itself generated some controversy.  You can see a good summary of the incident here.  Anthony Taylor made no call at the time but got word from his VAR that there might have been handling.  After a little back and forth on the ear piece, Taylor went to the monitor, looked only at a still photograph of the play and decided it was DOGSO.

What I saw was the ball coming off James' leg and striking his arm, which I argue was in a natural position at the time (see the still photograph).  For me, he has not "handled" the ball at that point.  However, after the contact, James then moves his arm forward, propelling the ball away from the goal. That is handling for me and I would have awarded the PK.  Maybe I am splitting hairs but the denying the goal part of this play was not handling; when he propelled the ball away it wasn't going in because it had already hit James.  I am in a distinct minority on this one.  BFS Keeper Consultant Graham R says I'm being too nuanced.  He saw an instinctual movement to keep the ball out of the goal and that is was DOGSO.  The unbiased part of the internet (i.e. not Chelsea fans) generally agrees with Graham's interpretation, even after discounting the pundits who said that handling in the box is an automatic red card (it's not).

A picture is worth 1,000 words but the whole video
 would have been worth a lot more

I am still left with the question of how does Taylor decide it's a red card based only on the still photo. 
Hell, he doesn't even get all the way to the monitor.  Without the video, he misses an exculpatory aspect for the defendant (the ball coming off his thigh) but also Exhibit B for the prosecution (the forward movement of the arm).   I found a little more support for that view - how does Taylor not take the time to more carefully review the play given the impact of his decision.  Also, is he saying that James' arm is in an unnatural position when the ball hits it?  His arm is barely away from his body.  

The call certainly changed the tenor of the game.  Maybe Chelsea were only going to get a point out of trip to Anfield anyway, but it was a different second half than we were looking forward to.

Worst Dive of the Week

Okay, it wasn't on the pitch but it's worth seeing again.  Story and video are here.  He was charged with "false swearing with the intent to cause an emergency response."  In other words, he was "booked" for simulation.

Euro WC Qualifiers

Yeah, I know there were a bunch.  Even saw a couple.  Don't feel prepared enough to comment.

Did You Know?

For more than 40 years, 

no game of any kind, be that Premier League, Championship, or even Bundesliga or LaLiga, can be broadcast live on British television on a Saturday between 2.45 p.m. and 5.15 p.m..

Explanation is here.  Basically, the thinking is that it will discourage attendance.

Schedule

A new wrinkle this weekend - a return to refereeing.  Covid-19 wiped out last year's club schedule but we're set to try again.  I like being out there even though it does cramp the viewing a little.

Competitive fixtures are in short supply so the marquee match of the week might be Man United hosting Newcastle (Saturday 10 am USA), which will feature the return of Christian Ronaldo to the Red Devils.  BFS Diving Expert and Co-founder Dennis F can barely contain himself, thinking about the uptick in possible yellow cards for simulation.  Whether this was a good move for the player or the club is the subject of much debate; you can get some of the flavor of that debate here.  All I know is that this fixture still looks like a mountain for the Magpies to climb; at 538 they give Newcastle an 11% chance of winning and 17% chance of getting a draw.

Aston Villa will have their hands full taking on Chelsea at Stamford Bridge; their odds are not much better than Newcastle's.  This is the feature match at 12:30 on NBC.

Most competitive match of the weekend looks to be Brentford - Brighton.  Make that, still undefeated Brentford (win and two draws).  This one could be tight - Saturday at 10 am on Peacock.  Watford -Wolves (Saturday 10 am on Peacock) might be close, with Wolves a slight favorite to get their first points.  Surprising that 538 has Southampton - West Ham as reasonably close; probably because the Hammers are on the road.

The only top table type of clash this week might not be all that close, with Leicester hosting Man City (10 am Saturday on Peacock).  The Foxes haven't been all that bad but City seems to be figuring things out.  League leading Spurs (TOT stands for Top of the Table) have a London derby with Crystal Palace at the TV home of Ted Lasso's AFC Richmond (aka Selhurst Park).   No reason to think Spurs don't come away with all three points here.  Liverpool will look to keep pace as they travel to Leeds (Sunday 11:30 on NBCSN).  And, unbeaten Everton also will try to stay that way, hosting Burnley (Monday at 3 pm on NBCSN).

Last place Arsenal host 19th place Norwich as the Gunners try to get on the board; that's at 10 Saturday on Peacock.  Solid favorites here so anything less than a win puts Arteta at greater risk.  

As I mentioned, no MLS action for the Union this week.  However, they do have the second leg of the CONCACAF Champions League semi-final at 9 pm on Wednesday night at Subaru Park.  Don't know yet if I'll be at this match.  Recall that the Union are down 0-2 after the first leg.  Keeping a clean sheet  will be critical since the U didn't get a goal in the first leg in Mexico.  That is, a 2-0 win on Wednesday would force extra time but a 3-1 win would send Club America to the final on the away goal rule.  Given their recent form, this feels like a long shot.