Let the Games Begin

After a few months of "subsisting on scraps" like the Euro Champions, Gold Cup, Tokyo Olympics and the MLS,  we have the EPL back.  The bad news is that they appear to have largely abandoned the mid-week fixtures that we came to rely on in the last year or so.  Meanwhile, the Union had two tough away matches

A Good Loss?

Listening to and reading the pundits, one might conclude that the Union's 1-2 loss to the Revolution was an awesome achievement.  I kid to some extent but there was a lot of gushing about how well things worked out up there.  There was a long list of reasons that this was a tough fixture.  Second match of the week, on the road, on turf, against the first place team, etc.  In addition, Jim Curtin was adamant about rotating the squad in advance of Thursday's CONCACAF Champions League semi-final against Club America.  Thus, we saw a lot of the kids, most of the first teamers played less than 60 minutes.  Oh, and Curtin put them out in an unfamiliar 3-4-2-1.  

High School Yearbook photo for Paxten Aaronson

And in fact, it was a solid performance.  The kids played well and Paxten Aaronson got his first professional goal.  Actually, we can't leave it at that because this was no simple goal.  Check out the settle, the touch to get clear and the scorching finish in this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Nice work; they should show it at his high school graduation next year.  O'Sullivan and McGlynn weren't bad either and Stuart Findlay was okay at the back; all had better ratings than most of the regulars.  New England keeper and USMNT star Matt Turner was put to work several times, enough that he took home Player of the Match.  This was a close contest and a draw would have been a fair reflection of the match.  So, yes, they played the kids, rested the regulars and still nearly came away with a draw.  Yes, it could have been a blow out.  Yes, they did get several good things out of the game.  But one of them wasn't a point.  

A Good Halftime Deficit?

Of course, the whole point of the exercise in New England was to have our best out there for the CONCACAF Champions League match to ensure that the tie wouldn't be out of reach when they play the second leg back in Philly in September.  And it worked, sort of.  The first half was pretty much all Club America and they did get a goal on a deflection off Gazdag.  Second half was much tighter and there were signs that the Union might get an away goal or at least come away with just an 0-1 loss. That hope was ruined by some - IMHO - re-refereeing by Walter Ramirez.  Jose Martinez coughed the ball up deep in Union territory, then compounded his error with a questionable challenge in the box.  Ramirez was right there and emphatically signaled no foul.  Did I mention he emphatically spread his arms like an MLB umpire making the safe sign?  VAR Drew Fisher suggested he look at it again.  Not clear and obvious to me and that it took Ramirez and good minute or two to change his mind suggests it was not clear and obvious to him either.  Except he changed the call.  Spot kick converted and now the deficit is 0-2 heading back to Philly.

At 0-1, I was feeling like the strategy of going with the kids in New England at the risk of getting no points was probably worth it.  Less happy that it's a two goal deficit but with less than our best out there, maybe it would have been 0-3 or worse.   This was a good showing on the national stage and the match is by no means over.  The problem is that a 3-1 win at Subaru Park won't be enough now given the away goal rule.  

A New Hope

Well, for some clubs anyway.  The 2021-22 EPL season kicks off, auspiciously on Friday the 13th.  As things stand, this could be the first "normal" season season since 2018-2019.  The schedule isn't compressed, there'll be fans in the stands, and Jose Mourinho is coaching somewhere other than the EPL.  

We'll review the league more broadly in a minute but first a word about Newcastle.  I see two possibilities this year.  One, they get off to a decent start and stay a step ahead of the relegation battle but don't threaten seriously for a top ten finish.  This is the good scenario.  In the other, they get off to poor start, spend way too much of the season in or close to the relegation zone before making a narrow escape with a decent finish.  So going in, the best thing I can say is that I'm cautiously optimistic they won't get relegated.  What a fricking low bar.  

This outpouring of optimism is only possible because today Newcastle finally got the Joe Willock deal over the line.  Mind you, this does not improve the team over last year, merely keeps them where they were - a solid 12-16th place team.

Elsewhere, the sun is shining.  I need only look at developments in Birmingham, where Aston Villa, despite losing their talisman Jack Grealish, have every reason to think they can improve on last year's 11th place finish.  How is this possible?  Well, basically they replaced Grealish - who you'll recall was out for a chunk of last season anyway - with three players, including Emi Buendia, Leon Bailey and Danny Ings who provide creativity, skills and goal scoring potential.  They added Axel Tuanzebe to shore up the defense as well.  They are the anti-Newcastle, all the ambition that my club fails to show.

I did a survey of table predictions that included The Guardian, CBS, NBC, The Bleacher Report, GiveMeSport, 442, Pundit Arena, The Bank, the Supercomputer, Paddy Power and 538.  The table below summarizes the 11 predictions

Man City haven't landed Harry Kane yet but even without him, people are pretty much handing the Citizens the title.  Not hard to understand that.  Most pundits see Chelsea, Liverpool and Man United fighting for the other top four slots. In fact, in the 11 projections, none had any other sides in the top four.  Leicester, Arsenal and Tottenham get most of the picks for 5th to 7th.

The mid-table could be Everton, Leeds, West Ham and Aston Villa.  The pundits seem quite confused about Brighton, picking them as high as 9th but as low as 19th and relegation; that's the biggest spread by far.  Crystal Palace could be an enigma too, as many see them as a serious relegation candidate while others have them pegged as the Newcastle of London.  Newcastle average out at 14th with a high and low of 12th and 16th.  Didn't need to do the math to see that one coming.

Of the newcomers, Watford look DOA, while Brentford and Norwich have some backers.  Still, they seem likely to struggle to stay up.  I was mildly surprised with Southampton at 15th.  Ings and Bertrand are gone and Vestergaard may be on his way to Leicester.  The Saints were 14th last year and don't seem to have gotten better.

There are of course plenty of articles out there previewing the season.  My favorite series continues to come from The Guardian.  You can see Watford's writeup here; the tab on the left allows you to scroll through all the teams.  The Trending Topics section at the bottom of each article is at once enlightening and hilarious.  A couple of examples:

“If we don’t get another striker in and Wilson gets injured we’ll be relegated.” (Newcastle)

“Can we stop the incessant 9-0 chat?” (Southampton)

 

Who's In Charge Here?

Can you match the manager with the club?  

Answers next week.

Religion Is Dead?

Check out the final line in this article from The Guardian:

There are not currently any suitors for Jesus.

Your DVR Can't Save You Now

As we hinted at the top, the EPL is moving back to concurrent versus sequential scheduling, which means it's much harder to see most/all of the games without spoilers.  Even judicious use of the DVR will require tricks like towels over the corner of the screen if you don't want you to see other scores.  You may have to make choices.  We'll offer what help we can.

Friday is easy.  Stop working - or continue not working - at 3 pm and watch the season opener between Brentford and Arsenal on NBCSN.  Might not be a great match but on a Friday afternoon with temps in the high 90's, what else you gonna too?

Those 7:30 Saturday morning fixtures are back.  This week it's Man United vs Leeds on NBCSN.  At 538, they suggest that Man United is a heavy favorite but last year Leeds generally put up a good effort.  At 10 am, you have five to choose from.  Three are on Peacock - Burnley v Brighton, Chelsea v Crystal Palace and Watford v Aston Villa.  Everton-Southampton is on NBCSN while Leicester - Wolves is on USA.  We'll probably go with check out the Grealishless Aston Villa to see how things go with the new recruits.  If you're looking for a tight contest, Burnley-Brighton might be your best choice.

The NBC feature match at 12:30 is Norwich versus Liverpool.  That doesn't look to be a close one.

Sunday has two of interest to us.  At 9 Newcastle host West Ham on NBCSN and at 11:30 Man City travel to London to face Spurs.  We're expecting a close one at St. James' Park and certainly have some hopes of at least a point.  Tottenham will have their hands full.

The Union have the weekend off but have a tough midweek contest at home vs NYCFC.  Need the points but a draw is probably more realistic.

Good news is you don't have to worry about the weekends anymore.  They are booked solid for the near future.