Close to the Edge

Apologies to Yes

ASM levels things at 1-1 but it's downhill from here

That sucking sound you hear is Newcastle being drawn closer and closer to the relegation zone.  With the Magpies at Old Trafford on Sunday, we had no realistic expectations that they'd get any points this weekend. The 3-1 final looks about right.  They were in it for awhile, including 1-1 at half thanks to a nice finish from Saint-Maximim.  A second half goal from James and then a [soft] penalty in the 75th minute brought us to the inevitable and expected conclusion.

No, our attentions were focused on what other teams could do for us.  West Brom helped a little with a 0-0 draw at Burnley and Crystal Palace's last second 2-1 win over Brighton was good too.  But the one we really needed - Fulham v Sheffield United - didn't go as well, with the Cottagers eventually grabbing a 1-0 win that leaves them just three points behind Newcastle.  Buckle up.

Champions League Stock Market Report

Last week featured key match ups between Champions League hopefuls.  Let's take "stock" of where things stand now using 538 percentages

Man City (stable) - Only because you can't be higher than a 100% chance.  Workmanlike 1-0 win over Arsenal does bring them closer to EPL title

Man United (up) - With the aforementioned win over Newcastle, they move from 76 to 82% and separate themselves from the rest

Leicester (up) - Important win 2-1 win over Villa (playing without Grealish and Cash) plus results elsewhere take them from 55 to 63%

Liverpool (down) - Merseyside derby loss to Everton move them from 72 to 55%; dropping like a stone

Chelsea (down) - Not clear where this team is going; 1-1 draw with Southampton takes them down to 52 from 55.  Clearly still in it but need some consistency.

West Ham (up) - Marked improvement (15 to 22) thanks to 2-1 win over Spurs; Jesse Lingard scores once more against a BFS and looks like the Loan of the Season.

Tottenham (down) - Looking totally like the whole is less than the sum of the parts, they had no chemistry in the loss to West Ham, which took them down from 11 to 10.  Mourinho jumps into the lead in the sack race; I wonder what kind of odds I could have gotten that Lampard and Mourinho would be gone before Bruce?

Match stats say Ahmed "Tickle Me" El Mohamady
 wasn't bad but I still prefer Cash

Everton (up) - The Toffees got a nice bump (from 2 to 7) after the win over Liverpool but still look like a long shot

Aston Villa (down) - Their lack of depth showed against Leicester but to the Villans' credit, they did make a decent match of it after going down 0-2; unfortunately for Dennis, Europa League still possible.

Arsenal (down) - And almost out at 2 percent.  The 0-1 loss to Man City wasn't terrible but there's just too much ground to make up at this point.

Yo Momma

A new line of insults, as in "My team is so bad..."  For example, Newcastle are so bad we actually care about the Fulham-Sheffield United and Fulham Crystal Palace matches.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did you say Leeds were facing some personnel issues?

Steve: No, I said they had a Klich in their lineup. 

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis (seconds after Fulham scored against Sheffield United): Live?

Steve: Eff me.

Steve: In other words, yes.

Pundit Jinx?

Dennis spent most of the Brighton - Crystal Palace match trashing Christian Benteke.  Ironic then when he (Benteke, not Dennis)  scored the winning goal on basically the last play of the game.  Never seen such a statistical domination that did not yield even a point.  The Seagulls' edge in every category was astonishing; possession was 75/25, shots 25/3, shots on target 5/2, corners 13/0 and expected goals 2.8/.25.  Dennis, please keep it up this weekend in case this works when Palace take on Fulham

Seeing Europe on Bicycles

Yes, that's going to go in

The Champions League and Europa League fixtures have been fun.  On Tuesday we saw a good match between Atletico Madrid and Chelsea in which the only goal was this week's Co-YouTubeableMoment, an outstanding bicycle kick from Olivier Giroud. Celebration was muted because he was initially ruled offside until VAR revealed he had received the ball from a deliberate play by a defender.  This tie is in no way over as they travel to London for the second leg on March 9.

Not to be outdone, Dele got his own bicycle kick goal the next day against Wolfsburg as Spurs closed out that tie in convincing fashion.  We make it this week's Co-YouTubeableMoment. 

Would be unfair not to mention Arsenal's come-from-behind Europa League win vs Benfica.  That one was 1-1 going into the second leg.  The Gunners took a 2-1 lead but found themselves in jeopardy after conceding two to the "visitors." Under the away goals rule, Arsenal now needed two to advance.  [Side note: how is it that Europa is still using the away goals rule when so many of these matches are being played in neutral venues?]  Kieran Tierney got one back quickly and Aubameyang got the game winner in the 87th minute, sending Arsenal into the round of 16.  Interesting that Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal are underperforming in the EPL but seem to be doing fine in Europe.

Next year will feature a new European League called the Europa Conference League.  Details can be had here.  Still sorting through the info but it looks like it will rank below Europa League, since the winner gets a spot in next year's Europa League.  Wait, is second place a spot in the next two Europa League competitions?  The only good news I see here is that I don't think it increases the number of EPL clubs playing in something other than Champions League; the EPL spot in the new competition goes to the winner of the League Cup.  That winner used to qualify for Europa League so I don't think it's an extra spot.  Pretty sure that if League Cup winner is already qualified for something better else, they go down the standings until they find a victim candidate.  So if you finish 7th or better you could find yourself playing in Donetsk next fall.

Another Two Fer

We'll be burning the mid-week oil again with matches running from Saturday through Thursday, with most teams playing twice.  Given that Callum Wilson is still out, we are grateful that Newcastle only have just one versus Wolves on Saturday at 3 pm (Peacock).  We might be able to nick a draw there but not holding my breath.  Villa have tricky one with Leeds (Saturday at 12:30 on Peacock) but also an easier fixture against Sheffield United (Wednesday at 1 on Peacock).  And scoreboard watching means we'll have a close eye on Fulham, who play Crystal Palace on Sunday (7 on Peacock) and Tottenham on Thursday (1 pm on Peacock).  Wait, too many Peacock matches for my liking here, especially the Sunday 7 am match.  

This week may decide Chelsea's CL hopes.  They have a home match with Man United on Sunday (11:30 on NBCSN), then face Liverpool at Anfield on Thursday (3:15 on Peacock).  The Blues have blown hot and cold under new manager Thomas Tuchel.  On the other hand, Man United seem to specialize in draws against the top sides and  Liverpool are in free fall having lost four straight overall as well as four straight at home.  Arsenal's slim chances may disappear if they can't get a result against Leicester on Sunday (7 am but at least on NBCSN).  Everton are in the same boat with matches against Southampton (Monday at 3 on NBCSN) and Leicester on Wednesday (1 pm on NBCSN). Spurs may have a chance to revive theirs with matches against Burnley (Sunday at 9 on NBCSN) and Fulham (Thursday at 1 on Peacock).

I'd say keep those DVRs running smoothly but NBC using a lot of Peacock so I guess it means stream safely.  

 

Thanks For Nuthin'

With the Magpies facing Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, we turned our eyes to others for help in the relegation fight.  That worked out great.  Man United only managed a draw with West Brom and Aston Villa did the same with Brighton.  Everton were the worst the offenders, with an 0-2 loss to Fulham.  At least West Ham managed to pin back Sheffield United 3-0.   When the final whistle blew on Chelsea's 2-0 win over Newcastle on Monday, Fulham sat just seven behind the Magpies, with a game in hand. The 1-1 midweek draw with Burnley brought them even closer.  At 538, they have Newcastle with a 30% chance of relegation, Fulham 56%.  We have been here before.

None of the weekend's games - or the two midweek contests for that matter - were all that interesting.  So we will turn our attention to things you may have missed.

Keeper Assist - Because Man City Needs More Scoring Punch

Ederson wanted a goal to go with his assist
 but Silva tells him Rodri will be taking the PK

Man City turned to an unlikely source for an assist in their 3-0 win over Tottenham.  The score was already 2-0 when keeper Ederson launched a long pass that found the foot of Ilkay Gundogan, who did some nice work to get his second of the game.  We'll make the pass this week's  should have been YouTubeableMoment.  Ederson was probably still a little miffed that he didn't get to take the PK in the first half.  Earlier in the week Pep had suggested he might make Ederson the PK taker, as that aspect might be the weakest part of City's game right now.  Apparently he hadn't pulled the trigger on that idea and teammates had to gently dissuade Ederson from taking the ball.  

With a midweek win over Everton, City have won 12 straight league matches and are undefeated in 16.  Add eight more wins or draws from League Cup, FA Cup and Champions League and they have 17 straight wins and are undefeated in 24, going 21-3-0.  Ten points up with 12 to play isn't a lock but they look pretty solid.  Good thing they are just getting DeBruyne back from injury.  Look at the bench for Wednesday's match - Steffen, Stones, Zinchenko, Mendy, Garcia, DeBruyne, Fernandinho, Aguero, and Torres.  That's probably a mid-table team or better right there.  Didn't they just dodge a two-year ban for violating Financial Fair Play provisions?

Firmino Assist - Not That It Mattered

Liverpool's fall continued with a 3-1 loss at Leicester.  The Reds did have the lead for a little while courtesy of a Salah goal off an otherworldly assist from Firmino.  The footwork was exquisite, seen here in this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Unfortunately for them, Leicester responded with three of their own in less than 10 minutes.  I guess last week they only fell from the tower; this week they landed hard.  

Well Now We Have A Name For It

Well, at least one thing useful came out of the Brighton - Aston Villa 0-0 draw.  You know when a defender lies down behind the wall on a free kick so that the players in the wall can jump and not worry if the shooter goes low?  Ian Darke has a name for it that is as incomparably British as it is descriptive - the draft excluder.  It's the thing you put at the bottom of a door to keep the cold wind out.   Brilliant.

Top - Draft Excluder $25.99 from Etsy
Bottom - Pablo Fornals £24 m from West Ham

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Fulham just missed a headed goal?

Steve: No, I said Tete almost scored

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Brenna: It's been all Brighton so far

Dennis: Can't be.  He doesn't play for Villa anymore

A Press Conference Can Be Informative

Dennis sends along this video of Sean Dyche offering valuable insights.  For example, we get another Britishism; lookey-likey.  Apparently this is how they say "lookalike" in England.  More importantly, Dyche basically points out that asking whether other EPL managers play the game lookie-likey will be more revelatory than inquiring about tactics:

Be much more fun than asking me about whether we're going to play a 4-4-2 and then go "Yeah he is.  Sean Dyche is going to play a 4-4-2."

This will be Dennis's new retort when someone says something obvious to him.  "Yeah, and Sean Dyche is gonna play a 4-4-2."  No one will know what he means but it will make him feel good.

Not Your Father's Barcelona

BFS Travel Agent Jeff K offers this from NYT Rory Smith on the financial issues at Barcelona that are starting to affect the product on the pitch.  We saw an good example of the problems when a Neymar-less PSG took Barca apart at Camp Nou 1-4 in the first leg of a Champions League Round of 16 match.  Of course it's not over until the second leg, but a three goal lead and four away goals make PSG an odds-on favorite to advance.

Other Random Thoughts

Keeper Mat Ryan went on loan from Brighton to Arsenal but at the time only moved up four places in the table.  The Gunners did look better though in a 4-2 win over Leeds.

Dennis notes that last year's 16th and 17th place teams (West Ham and Aston Villa) are currently sitting 5th and 8th.  If they can do it, why can't Newcastle?

We have previously noted that an unwatched dvr of an EPL game is the lowest ranking you can give of a match's worth.  We may have found the second lowest - not treadmill worthy.  As in, it's not enough to keep your interest while you're on your treadmill or exercise bike.

Forecast Calls for Pain (apologies to Robert Cray)

This week the Magpies travel to Old Trafford to face Man United; 538 has that one at 80/6/14 so anything less than an 0-3 loss is probably a moral victory.  That's Sunday at 2 pm on Peacock.  For some reason, all the Sunday matches are Peacock this week.

Three important matches for Champions League contenders.  Aston Villa have a real test of their new credentials with a home match against Leicester Sunday at 9 am.  We will find out if the Villans have a real shot at qualifying for Champions League.  Dennis doesn't think they do.  He is also suffering from a severe case of Elophobia (fear of qualifying for Europa League) - "we don't say the E word in this house."  Then there's the Merseyside Derby at Enfield Saturday (feature match on NBC at 12:30).  Neither come into the match in good form.  Liverpool have lost three straight (though they did get a midweek 2-0 win over RB Leipzig in CL action) while Everton have dropped two in a row.  And third, we have West Ham - Tottenham at 7 am Sunday; Spurs chances likely depend on getting all three points here but that will not be easy given their recent form.

Man City have what used to be a tough road test against Arsenal (Sunday at 11:30) but off of recent form they are big favorites.  Chelsea are also favorites in their match at Southampton (7:30 Saturday on NBCSN).  

Three notable matches down at the bottom.  Newcastle fans will be all over the Fulham - Sheffield United contest at 3 pm on Saturday (Peacock); boy do we need Sheffield to come up big here.  There's also Burnley - West Brom at 10 am Saturday (NBCSN); the Clarets are close to safety at this point while this is a match that the Baggies need if they are to have any hope of escaping.  Brighton play Crystal Palace on Monday (3 pm on NBCSN); both are almost home and a win for one of them here probably seals the deal.  

One midweek EPL fixture in Leeds vs Southampton (Tuesday at 1 pm on NBCSN).  The Saints have quietly racked up six straight EPL losses but are likely safe anyway while Leeds have been inconsistent but safe as well. 

Also, more Champions League and Europa action midweek so plenty to take in while you multitask.

Almost forgot - you can get an early start to the weekend with Wolves - Leeds on Friday at 3 pm on Peacock.  These are two sides in the EPL nether region between relegation and contending for CL/EL spots but both play some attractive football so worth checking out.  Besides, what else on you going to do on a winter Friday afternoon?  Beats shoveling snow.

Are You Not Entertained?

I hope you took advantage of the sketchy weather and caught some of the action.  A pile of great stuff, including some fun FA Cup matches too.

A Pyrrhic Victory Is Better Than A Pyrrhic Loss

Newcastle back three by the end
 of the Southampton match

Newcastle's unexpected 3-2 win came in an unexpected manner, with numerous twists and turns.  At least we knew they would be attacking, as the line up included all of Allan Saint-Maximin, Miguel Almiron and new loanee Joe Willock.  Sure enough, there was Willock scoring in the 16th minute off a pass from ASM; an easy choice for this week's  YouTubeableMoment. Almiron doubled the lead at 26 minutes, although many argue it was an own goal.  By that point Manquillo had already been subbed out with an ankle injury, a subplot for the match it would turn out.

Not long after I texted Dennis that this line up might not be the strongest defensively, Minamino cut the deficit to one.  Minutes later, Callum Wilson was down with a hamstring injury.  But Southampton proceeded to gift Newcastle a third goal in first half stoppage time.

Early in the second half, a Magpie foul meant that James Ward-Prowse was going to get a free kick.  I had barely finished texting Dennis that this was scary situation, when Ward-Prowse blasted the kick past Darlow.  Barely a minute later, Jeff Hendrick earned himself a second yellow and Newcastle went down a man at 49 minutes.  Let the heroic defending commence.  After almost 30 minutes of that, the situation got even worse, as Fabian Schar went down with a knee injury.  Having used all their subs, two for the injuries already noted, Newcastle would now play the last 15 minutes or so two men down.  Let the even more heroic defending begin.  One Newcastle wag suggested that they were really playing with eight, since Joelinton was on the pitch and he doesn't do defense well.  But somehow they survived.  The full-time whistle was a relief and so were the three points.  

The damage is serious though.  Manquillo is probably out several weeks with ligament issues.  Wilson will miss eight weeks with his hamstring and Schar may be done for the season with damaged knee ligaments.  Krafth will be able to cover for Manquillo, although it would have been nice to still have Yedlin.  Clark will be available again while Lascelles and Fernandez will likely be back, if not this week, then next.  We have bodies to put in Wilson's place but they simply aren't as good.  Personally I'd rather see Dwight Gayle get some extended time but we'll probably see a lot of Joelinton or Andy Carroll.

With the three points, Newcastle's relegation chance is down to 20%.  Way too soon to be declaring them safe, especially with the Wilson injury.  I do need to credit management with the acquisition, if only temporary, of Joe Willock.  We desperately needed more attacking punch in the mid-field and this guy can provide it.  Feel better than a few weeks ago.

Is It Over?

Foden:Alisson, my aim is true
apologies to Elvis Costello

That thud you heard was Liverpool's chances of repeating landing hard.  Like Hans Gruber falling off of Nakatomi Towers hard.  For a while their critical contest with Man City was close, even 1-1 until late.  Then three City goals in 11 minutes, aided in part by some mistakes by Liverpool keeper Alisson, and the game was over.  Foden's laser (see right) was the final blow.  Certainly Liverpool's chances of repeating are over.  And so too may be anyone else's chance of catching Man City. They lead by five and everyone in the chase pack seems to have holes.  

Done and Dusted by Lunchtime

Dennis and I rediscovered the joys of having your side play early on Saturday and win.  Aston Villa took a 1-0 win from Arsenal in the 7:30 match.  Villa are undefeated when they score first and keep a clean sheet.  Great strategy.  And Newcastle Southampton was the 10 am match so by 11:59 we were back in the bunk house with three points each.  Life is good.

Spurs Fight Their Way Out of A Paper Baggies

Hat tip to Michael B for that one.  Took forever for Tottenham to get on the board and put away a sinking West Brom side.  Still, it had a number of positives that include 1) ending a three-match losing streak 2) marking the return of Harry Kane from injury 3) featuring goals from both Kane and Son.  That slump put a big dent in Spurs' Champions League prospects but probably too early to count them out if they are reasonably healthy. Also, after the two Manchester sides, things are pretty tight for third and fourth.

When A Draw Feels Like A Loss

DCL snatches a draw from the jaws of defeat

That would be when you enter the 95th minute with a 3-2 lead and come away with a 3-3 draw, Man United did with Everton.  Man United up 2-0 at half but Everton drew level seven minutes into the second half.  McTominay puts away what felt like a game winner at 70 minutes before Calvert-Lewin steals a point with a toe poke at match end.  A great match, probably more fun for the neutral and Everton fans.

What Is Wrong With People?

I know we sometimes get on Mike Dean's case here at BFS.  But this is beyond the pale.  I did see the Soucek call and texted Dennis "can't wait to see this one overturned on appeal," which it was.  So what?  There is no excuse for on-line abuse in the first place and doing so over something as unimportant as a referee's call is mind-boggling.  This is why we can't have nice things.

A Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Jeff H:  9/12 for BFS this match week [referring to points earned by Newcastle, Aston Villa, Spurs and Man United]

Steve: 10/12? Man United got a point, just doesn't feel like it [Jeff H apparently  subconsciously treating United's thrilling 3-3 draw with Everton a loss rather than a draw]

Jeff H:  Right, 3+3+3+1=10.  Thanks for straightening that out.

Steve:  There are three kinds of people in the world: Those who are good with numbers and those who aren't

Dennis:  There are two kinds of people in the world: Those who can infer from incomplete data

 

Bruce Going To Outlast Lampard and Arteta?

Mildly surprised that Mikel Arteta's odds in the sack race - after Arsenal's consecutive losses to Wolves and Aston Villa - only have him sixth in line right now.  The top eight are listed here.  Relegation Avoidance Specialist Sam Allardyce has jumped to the head of the class and his streak of saving teams may be over.  Even with six points from the last three matches, Steve Bruce remains firmly in the mix.

On the relegation front, Spurs and Chelsea did the job, barely, with wins over West Brom and Sheffield United, respectively.  Fulham and Burnley grabbed a single point each with draws against West Ham and Brighton.  According to 538, the Baggies  (98%) and the Blades (90%) look like sure things at this moment.  Fulham are at 72% chance so time is running out on them too.

Concussion Protocol   

The EPL has implemented, at least temporarily, a new substitution policy where concussions may be involved.  The policy is outlined here.  Basically, teams will be allowed two extra subs in situations where a concussion is even suspected.  To even things out (and reduce chances of "gaming the system?"), when a concussion sub is made, the other team is given an additional sub too.  Concussion subs can be used regardless of whether a team has used up its three "normal" subs.  I suppose this creates the possibility of seven subs for each team in a game; each team has used all three regular subs, then each team gets two concussions.

The new rule went into effect last Saturday.  Schar should have grabbed his head instead of his knee.

FA Cup Was Good Too

Won't get into details here but hope you saw the classic back and forth, extra time 5-4 classic between Everton and Tottenham.  Michael B didn't seem too disappointed, texting, "now we can focus on winning the league."  Man United's extra time 1-0 win over West Ham was pretty good too.  The Hammers could have used Jesse Lingard, who they have on loan from MUN.  To clarify, Lingard was ineligible to play, not because he is prohibited from playing against his parent club but because he had already appeared in FA Cup matches this season for another team (in this case MUN) - "cup tied" in the lingo.  Kind of like handling the ball while scoring a goal while offside - which infraction is enforced?  

Another Sequential Match Week

No overlapping games this weekend so those with nothing better to do can see all matches live.  Feature of the week is Man City vs Tottenham as the NBC match Saturday at 12:30.  Most of the league is hoping for Spurs to slow that City train down; no one is holding their breath. The other key match is 3rd vs 4th when Leicester host Liverpool; that's at 7:30 Saturday morning (NBCSN) but worth getting up early for. 

Newcastle have a fun trip to Stamford Bridge to face Chelsea (Monday 3pm on NBCSN - great, we can wait all weekend for the thrashing).  Though the Blues haven't exactly been killing it lately, they will likely have enough to deal with the Magpies.  Aston Villa travel to Brighton (Saturday 3 pm Peacock) for a match that I would have tipped as a solid win for Villa; not so fast says 538, with Brighton a slight favorite at 37/36/27.

Doesn't look like a promising weekend for the bottom three, with Fulham at Everton (Sunday 2pm on Peacock), West Brom hosting Man United (Sunday at 9 on NBCSN) and Sheffield United traveling to West Ham (Monday at 1 pm on NBCSN).  

We wonder how safe Arteta will be if they don't beat Leeds at home; that's Sunday at 11:30 on NBCSN.  Rounding out the matchweek are Crystal Palace - Burnley (10am Saturday on NBCSN) and Southampton - Wolves at 7 am Sunday morning on Peacock (you may get a note from your doctor to skip that one).  

Throw in a couple of midweek make up matches on Wednesday including Burnley - Fulham at 1 and Everton - Man City at 3:15.  The former offers Burnley the chance to dramatically improve their survival chances.  The latter may be just another nail in the EPL title race.

Not enough mid-week stuff for you?  No worries! Champions League action on Tuesday and Wednesday while Europa League resumes on Thursday.  

10-day forecast is for cold temps, snow or wintry mix and lots of football viewing.

Who's In Charge Here?

Another two match weeks where you really couldn't depend on things going according to plan.  I count six decent upsets (losing team was favored by at least 10% at 538) and another two that qualify as minor upsets.   Biggest among them is Liverpool failing to score at home in a 0-1 defeat to Brighton.  The top ten teams dropped almost as many points as the bottom half (28 vs 34).  The four teams who won both their matches included Man City and Chelsea but also Crystal Palace and Brighton.  Teams dropping five or six points included Burnley, Fulham and West Brom but also Southampton, Arsenal and Tottenham.  Out of respect for Michael B, we will not say any more about Spurs' week.

Man City have won seven straight and are undefeated in their last 13.  They lead by three points with a game in hand.  Man United looked happy enough to stumble through a 0-0 draw with Arsenal then produced a unique result vs Southampton in which their goals scored matched the number of Saints on the field at match end - nine.  They are second in the table.  Leicester and Liverpool round out the top four.  At the bottom,  Fulham, West Brom and Sheffield did much to solidify their relegation chances but Burnley and Newcastle refuse to go away.

Almost forgot about this week's YouTubeableMoment.  As much as I'd like to take something from the Newcastle win, this counterattacking goal from Liverpool is too good to pass up.  So many good pieces and all of them necessary for the goal to happen.  But really, how does Salah get that ball under control so easily?

Newcastle Get Bonus Points But It Doesn't Feel That Way

To be honest, I had the Magpies down for just one point out of the two matches, thinking they'd lose to Everton and draw with Crystal Palace.  But of course, after their solid and deserved 2-0 win over the Toffees, I started thinking about four or even six points.  And after Newcastle took an early lead against Palace, my hopes got way ahead of me.  The 1-2 loss feels like we gave away the bonus points earned at Everton.

Wilson's brace at Goodison Park was the difference

Against Everton, the Magpies seemed in the match pretty much from the start.  This was not the
bunkered in side we've come to expect when they are road underdogs.  The 4-3-1-2 did the job defensively but also provided enough attacking to keep them in the match.  When Callum Wilson's header found the back of the net at 73 minutes, the possibility of taking home some points became very real.  He added a goal in stoppage time to seal the deal.  Though they again lost the possession battle, most of the other stats say this was a deserved win.  

Jonjo Shelvey got Newcastle off to a great start with a finish from the top of the box two minutes in against Crystal Palace.  I jokingly texted to Dennis that we scored too soon.  Hah, joke's on me.  Two goals in the space of five minutes found the Magpies behind by the 25th minute.  And there they would stay.  This one was particularly frustrating as Newcastle dominated in every category, including possession, but would never find the equalizer.  By game's end, I had completely forgotten how the original expectation for the week was a single point.  

Aston Villa Get Bonus Points and It Feels That Way

I predict strikers will soon be going sleeveless

Fairly well dominated by Southampton, Villa managed to steal a 1-0 win from the Saints. The goal was decent enough - a Barkley header off a Grealish cross - but the stats reveal a one-sided affair.  Possession was 60/40, shots 20/8, corners 7/1 and expected goals 2.35-.75.  Keeper Emiliano Martinez was the difference here as he made some incredible stops, including one in stoppage time.  Oh yeah, Southampton had a goal in the closing seconds overruled by VAR for offside.    As you can see from the picture, if Ings wore his sleeves any shorter or Matty Cash had a bigger butt, this match would have been tied.  Speaking of Cash, he dodged a handling call in the first half, likely only because the ball may have bounced off his leg first.  

Comments about Aston Villa's mid-week 1-3 loss to West Ham are better left unsaid.  They looked like a side that isn't very deep that's played a lot of matches recently and we'll leave it at that.  Well, and maybe add that after an awesome year so far, Martinez did let in some softer goals in this one.  And what the hell is Jesse Lingard doing a) in a West Ham kit and b) scoring two goals against Aston Villa?  That loan paid dividends quickly.  Okay, now we can leave it at that.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did you say Villa were in financial difficulty?

Steve: No, I said Cash nearly caused them some problems

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis:  The hashtag label Palace-Wolves is perfect for that whiny Zaha

Steve: How so?

Dennis: #CRYWOL(F)

But She Was Right

Karen Carney makes NBC debut

NBC/Peacock finally put a woman commentator in the booth for the Crystal Palace - Wolves match.  Karen Carney played for the English WNT and has been doing some broadcasting work for BT and Amazon Prime.  Dennis and I give her high marks.  Her points were mostly spot on and I thought her delivery was good too.  

So of course some people have an issue with her.  Prior to the Leeds - West Brom match she made an observation about Leeds (we'll discuss exactly what she said in a minute) that did not sit well with the club and some its players.  So the club and a few players tweeted their displeasure in a somewhat mocking tone.  Well, as we know from things on this side of the pond, once leadership signals it's okay, the criticism turns abusive.  She has the added benefit of being a woman so much of the abuse was sexist.  You can read the details here.

So what did she say about Leeds?  Carney observed: 

“I actually think they got promoted [last season] because of Covid, in terms of it gave them a bit of respite.” 

So does Leeds have a history of collapsing in the second half of the season?  Easy enough to check.  

Holy lactic acid Batman.  They did have big dropoffs in the previous two seasons and the year they get a long layoff due to the pandemic, they don't have a big collapse.  Yes, I know this is only correlation and not causality but the numbers support her point.  And as to causality, Leeds manager Marcello Biesla does employ high-intensity tactics of the kind that in fact could tire a squad out over a long season, especially in the Championship Division which has more games.  

I'm left appalled at the double standard because there's no way a male commentator gets this abuse, even if he's wrong.  And she wasn't even wrong.  The Leeds response that we won the division by 10 points is irrelevant; with the long layoff, their second half dropoff was 11-16 points less than in previous years.  There's your 10 points right there.  We get so much crap from pundits and commentators that simply isn't supported by the facts and she basically gets this right and still gets abuse for it.  At least I didn't hear her with the crap observation about a two goal lead being the hardest to defend.  Next time someone drops that one on you, tell them "I can only explain it to you. I can't understand it for you." If I sound annoyed, I went through this whole data thing with baseball between 1980-1992 listening to people spout old adages that simply weren't true.  I know sportswriters and pundits hate this sh..tuff because it used to be they could say anything and there was no way to check.

An Easy Week?

Just match week 23 spread over Saturday to Monday and some FA Cup fixtures mid-week.  Big clash of the weekend is Liverpool - Man City at 11:30 on Sunday (NBCSN).  This has to be in the at least "must draw" category for the Reds.  A loss here and they will be 10 points behind City with one more game played.  But they look like two teams heading in opposite directions and you fear for Liverpool in this one.

Dennis and I will know our fates soon enough.  Aston Villa start the weekend with the 7:30 match, hosting Arsenal on NBCSN.  Newcastle will be the TV match at 10 on NBCSN, hosting Southampton.  Surprisingly, both our sides are very slight favorites.  Don't know about Dennis but if Newcastle grab a draw here, I'll be pleased.  Remind me of that next week if I complain.  

Top of the table action includes a pretty good looking match between Man United and Everton at 3 pm on Saturday (NBCSN) and Wolves - Leicester on Sunday at 9 am on NBCSN.  United are probably good in their match but who knows what the Wolves will bring against the Foxes.  Probably should mention Fulham - West Ham (NBC feature match at 12:30 on Saturday) and Sheffield United - Chelsea (3:15 Sunday on Peacock) since they are just outside the top four; we'll be looking for the favorites to take care of business in those two as we don't need relegation rivals getting any extra points.  Same for Tottenham - West Brom; maybe a match against the Baggies (7 am Sunday on NBCSN) is the ticket for whatever is ailing Spurs (probably the absence of Harry Kane). 

Burnley - Brighton (Saturday at 10 on Peacock) was supposed to be a big relegation showdown but the Seagulls are close to being safe.  This forces us to root for them over the Clarets.  The week concludes on Monday with Leeds and Crystal Palace (3 pm NBCSN), a match between two sides in the EPL nether region - the space where neither European football next fall nor relegation is a real possibility any more.

FA Cup 5th Round fixtures cover Tuesday-Thursday.  List of matches is here.  Dennis and I are thrilled that both our sides are out and will get some rest this week.  Interesting, Wolves - Southampton face each other in the FA Cup on Thursday, then again on Sunday in EPL action.  Everton - Tottenham on Wednesday might be the best of the viewing for FA Cup action.  

Looks like more snow on Sunday, ending mid-afternoon.  Convenient as you can watch the matches and shovel later and still meet the Philadelphia city regulations of shoveling your sidewalk within six hours of the snow ending.