Down Is Up and Up Is Down

Can I get a collective WTF from the group?  And I don't necessarily mean because so many results went "the wrong way" this week, though that was definitely the case.  No, I'm just saying that form took a beating. Top 10 sides dropped 10 points to bottom half teams, Liverpool lost twice, Norwich won twice.  You get the picture.


Stalemate

Emphasis on stale.  I have no idea why the announcers thought this particular version of Newcastle - Burnley was likely to feature a lot of scoring.  The Magpies had scored 12 and allowed just 12 at home going into the match.  Burnley had just 14 road goals.  None of those numbers changed as the two sides played to an utterly predictable 0-0 draw.  538 says Newcastle had the better chances but the result looked fair to me.  And not awful either.  Burnley are good side.  The lack of scoring is troubling though, as Newcastle completed their sixth hour of EPL competition without a goal.  And with results elsewhere, their odds of relegation actually increased despite getting the point.


Little Help Elsewhere

Grainy picture but while it clearly touched the Hand (arm) of
Godfrey, hardly convincing evidence it touched Iheanacho's hand 

Dennis and I could only view the out-of-town scoreboard with dismay.  His Villa side were in the Carabao Cup final on Sunday so could do nothing themselves about their EPL position.  By the end of the weekend results elsewhere had left them worse off.  Their relegation odds went from 54% to 62%.  Newcastle's rose from 13% to 16%.

Things went downhill early, starting with Leicester's 0-1 loss to Norwich on Friday.  That one featured a questionable VAR decision to take away Iheanacho's goal for handling in the build-up.  On replay I didn't see clear evidence that the ball had touched Iheanhacho's arm; in fact it looked like it was the Hand of Godfrey, not Iheanacho.  Though Leicester maybe had the better of play, it wasn't by much and the result didn't seem undeserved.  The Foxes clearly felt the absence of Jamie Vardy, something they have to get used to given his "advanced" age (33).

Saturday was just as unhelpful.  Other than Crystal Palace's narrow 1-0 defeat of Brighton, nothing seemed to go our way.  West Ham's 3-1 thumping of Southampton was the least surprising.  Chelsea needed an 85th minute goal from Marcos Alonso (his second of the match) to slink away from Bournemouth with a 2-2 draw.  Then we watched Liverpool lose 0-3 to Watford, thus ending their 44-game unbeaten streak and 18-game winning streak.  But Watford lose Deulofeu for the rest of the season so that may be the definition of a pyrrhic victory.

Sunday's matches were also crazy and confounding.  We went with Spurs-Wolves and were treated to one of the better matches of the year, though not so much if you're a Tottenham fan.  Twice, Spurs failed to hold the lead and eventually were done in by Raul Jiminez.  The 3-2 win was a big boost for Wolves' Champions League hopes.  For Spurs, will they rue weekends like this when most of the key competitors were dropping points and they failed to take advantage?

I did get to fast forward through the Everton - Man United match to catch the flavor of that one.  Check out this howler from David De Gea in the third minute.  Might have been the week's YouTubeableMoment but for events later in the match.  United leveled things on a less than stellar attempted save from Jordan Pickford.  The match was full of the snarl you might expect from two sides believing that a Champions League spot is up for grabs and it went into stoppage time 1-1.  Calvert-Lewin appeared to have won the match for Everton with a deflected shot but the goal was eventually ruled out for offside.  You can see the play here, in this week's YouTubeableMoment (hopefully opens to the correct time but it's at 10:14 if it doesn't).  Clearly, Sigurdsson is half-prone on the pitch between De Gea and the ball when the shot is taken.  However, is he obstructing De Gea's vision?  The United keeper seems to have no trouble reacting, in the correct direction, to the shot.  The deflection off Maguire changes the path but there is no way De Gea is going to get there.  If you magically take Sigurdsson out of the play, does anything transpire differently?  If you answer no, Sigurdsson is not affecting the play and shouldn't be ruled offside.  Graham and I concluded this was a "safe but ultimately incorrect" call.  The official explanation from the EPL:

"The on-field decision was to award the goal, but the VAR advised the referee that Sigurdsson was in an offside position directly in the line of vision of David de Gea and made an obvious action that impacted de Gea’s ability to make a save."

I'm okay with the first part of that but not convinced about the impact on the ability to make the save. And check out why Sigurdsson was on the deck in the first place; was he fouled coming through the box?  Just askin'. We're told VAR checked that too and it wasn't a clear and obvious error.

When the dust settled, Aston Villa were back in the relegation zone along with Norwich and Bournemouth.  Man United had the 4th CL spot but only on goal differential over Wolves.  I guess (hope?) we can expect the intensity we saw in most matches this weekend to continue with so much to play for.


Carabao Cup

Entertaining stuff for the least important cup of the season.  Man City got on Aston Villa early with goals from Aguero and Rodri.  Villa narrowed things just before half with a tally from Mbwana "What's" Samatta.    They actually came close to leveling the match a few times in the second half.  Yes, they made a good impression.  But as Dennis noted 1) they still lost and 2) this was absolutely no help in the relegation fight.

We make fun of the Carabao Cup plenty but you can see here that UEFA would also like England to scrap the competition.  It's certainly a nuisance for the Premier League clubs and the financial rewards don't seem big enough to make it a winner for the other three divisions involved (Championship, League One and League Two).


FA Cup

[Ed note: BFS sincerely apologizes to readers for not alerting them to last week's FA Cup matches.  Heads will roll, unless we determine it was Obama's fault.]

 Almirón scores his second goal at The Hawthorns
 Photograph: Serena Taylor/Newcastle United via Getty Images

Clearly, in his pep talks, Steve Bruce needs to convince the Newcastle players that the pending fixture is an FA Cup match.  Can't score in EPL but the offense blossoms in FA Cup action.  Last time out they got three against Oxford.  Tuesday they had three on West Brom by 47 minutes.  Just as clearly however, he needs to remind them that matches are 90 minutes plus stoppage time.  Against Oxford they allowed goals in the 84th and 94th minute.  This time they surrendered goals in the 74th and 93rd minute.  In the end though, a second straight 3-2 FA Cup win.  The offense looked superb, with Almiron (2 goals) and Saint Maximin consistently dangerous.

Other sides were not so fortunate.  Take Tottenham for example.  They were unable to build on a 1-0 lead against Norwich, gave up the equalizer late and eventually lost on PKs.  Liverpool experienced their second loss in four days, falling to Chelsea 0-2.  Not necessarily a shocker but the Liverpool train has at least been temporarily derailed.  Other top sides are advancing as Arsenal survived Portsmouth 2-0, Sheffield United bested Reading 2-1, Leicester got past Birmingham 1-0, Man City beat Sheffield Wednesday Wednesday 1-0 and Man United handled a determined Leeds Thursday 3-0.

The quarterfinal draw was not kind to Newcastle but realistically, there was little chance it would be given the field.  Six of the finalists are ahead of them in the table and they couldn't beat the one side who isn't - Norwich - in two attempts this year.  So while Man City will be tough, none of the others would be a picnic either.  Here are the match ups:

Sheffield United - Arsenal
Norwich - Man United
Leicester - Chelsea
Newcastle - Man City

They don't go to Wembley until the semis, so this will be a home match for Newcastle, not that it will matter all that much.  Matches are March 21, all at 11 am (why all the same time?).


Union in Last

I was disappointed to see the starting XI for the U vs Dallas.  No Wagner (injured), no Oravec (not ready yet) and no Elliott (visa problems - Excuse me but who is responsible for this aspect of player management? The same thing happened last year with Burke).  Their replacements (Real, Creavalle and Glesnes) were not awful but it wasn't the side we were expecting.

Not a scintillating contest.  Even Jeff H and I - two of the MLS's staunchest defenders (pundits, not players) - agreed that this was pretty tepid stuff compared to, say, Everton - Man United or Spurs - Wolves.  "Chippy and goalless" was how the MLS website described the first half.  Dallas did break through in the 61st minute and added a second in stoppage time.  Didn't feel like an 0-2 loss.  Both 538 and Opta say expected goals were basically even, supporting my contention that the final scored flattered Dallas.  Some good work from Blake though maybe a little soft on the first goal?  Some scoring chances from shuhBILLkoh and Aaronson that weren't converted.  Without Picault, we did look slow out there.  Looks like another "period of adjustment."


Can I Open My Eyes Now?

I dunno, things still look pretty scary.  Newcastle heading to St. Mary's to take on Southampton?  That doesn't sound promising even though the Saints are the worst home team in the league.  Aston Villa on the road to Leicester a week after the Foxes were embarrassed by Norwich?  538 has that one at 65% win for Leicester, 20% chance of a draw.  Newcastle are Saturday at 10 am on NBC Gold while Villa are Monday at 4 pm on NBCSN.  That strange sounding start time for Villa is a reminder that we "spring forward" on Sunday morning while the English wait until later in the month.

Tottenham with a road match at Turf Moor vs Burnley?  Doesn't sound like a fixture designed to cure whatever ails Spurs right now.  That's the Saturday 12:30 feature match, which once again is bumped from NBC to NBCSN.  What is it this time?  Gymnastics, then golf?  Walking a fine line there guys.

For us scoreboard watchers (relegation division),  all four of the critical matches are set for 10 am Saturday.  TV has Wolves - Brighton (CNBC) or Arsenal - West Ham (NBCSN).  Streamers on NBCGold can see Crystal Palace - Watford and Sheffield United - Norwich.  We'll be looking for the favored teams to take care of business

Ironically (coincidentally?) the fixture list is the same for scoreboard watchers (champions league contenders division).  Don't laugh that Arsenal are in that group.  They are five points out of the running with a game in hand; that the game in hand is against Man City only slightly weakens my point.  I'll be occupied with Newcastle but if I wasn't, I'd go with Palace - Watford. 

Two solid contests Sunday (note the later starting times).  At 10 Chelsea host Everton.  The Blues have by no means locked up a Champions League spot and Everton are like Arsenal (except no game in hand).  538 doesn't see this as all that close but the Toffees have experienced an "Italian renaissance" (forgot which announcer said that) under Carlo Ancelotti.  He will be on the bench for that one, having avoided a suspension despite being red carded for post-game protestation of that offside call in the Man United match.  The afternoon match (12:30) is a Manchester Derby at Old Trafford; again, 538 sees City has the big favorite but this one could still be fun.

If you're still good to go later on Sunday, you can see the Union take on LAFC (10:30 pm on PHL17).  Seriously low expectations for this one.  Like just keep the goal differential down.

Plenty of weekday stuff to take in.  Besides Leicester - Aston Villa on Monday, there's Man City - Arsenal on Wednesday at 3:30 (NBCSN); matches like this might put a crimp in the Gunners' push for the Champions League.

Speaking of Champions League, there are four second leg matches on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Tuesday has RB Leipzig against Spurs (4 pm TNT).  The German side go in with a 1-0 lead and are clear favorites to advance playing at home.  However, 1-0 is hardly an airtight lead.  Wednesday looks even better with Liverpool hosting Atletico Madrid (also 4 pm TNT).  Though down 0-1 after the first leg, Liverpool are favored at home.  Still, they will need more than one goal to advance and can't afford to surrender an away goal to AM.  If you dvr, don't forget to extend recording by 60-90 minutes as they will go to extra time and PKs if necessary.  Wednesday has another cracker - PSG hosting Dortmund but I think you have to stream that one.  Pretty much the same situation as Liverpool - AM; the home team (PSG) comes in down a goal but are favored to win the second leg; they do have the advantage of an away goal so a 1-0 win would be enough.  The fourth match in this set is Valencia - Atalanta with the latter up 4-1 after the first leg. Even on the road, they are favored to win and advance.

So with without much work, you should be able to catch nine matches this week.  Unless of course you have a life outside of watching soccer.