Wake Up and Smell the Relegation

Ozil's game winner vs Newcastle; well struck and could have
been YouTubeableMoment but I don't need to see it anymore.

Despite a reasonably creditable performance against Arsenal (for the second half at least), Newcastle went down 0-1 at the Emirates and fell into the bottom three.  Everything I see says they got there on merit.  The Magpies four wins came against 14, 15, 17, and 20 in the table; the three draws were versus 7, 12 and 19.  I don't think they've been particularly unlucky, or more accurately, their luck has been balanced.  Going through the 538 metrics you can see maybe the Huddersfield, Brighton and Watford losses could have been wins and the Leicester and Everton losses could have been draws.  But at the same time, the Swansea win could have been a loss and the Crystal Palace win a draw; the Liverpool, Southampton and West Brom draws should have been losses.  So the net would be a plus three points, hardly enough to take away the danger.  My model based on goals scored/goals allowed says a team that has scored 16 and yielded 27 should have 15 points so there's nothing to suggest bad luck there either.

No, unfortunately, Newcastle look to be just about where they should be.  The 538 model now has Newcastle with a 45% chance of relegated so the $250 million on the table to buy the club is equal to $372 million in May if the Magpies were to survive.  Maybe I don't understand the timing of TV money or something but I can't see Ashley having any leverage right now.  There are so many reports coming out but always sourced as "someone familiar with the negotiations" so it's hard to put too much stock in them.  But it does sound increasingly unlikely that a deal could be completed before the January transfer window ends.  Limited or no spending means it's going to be close as to whether they can stay up.

Thursday morning update - Newcastle sign Chelsea's Robert Kenedy (not a typo) on loan deal.  Positives?  He can play anywhere on left side and he brings some pace to a team not tremendously blessed with speed.  Negatives?  This year has only featured in League Cup matches and can get himself in hot water.  I rate this as more than just "rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic" but the iceberg still looms ahead.


In Another League?

Let's see, Man City shrugged off one of the purported challengers - Tottenham - with an easy 4-1 win while others in the chase pack mostly did little to distinguish themselves. Man United (2-1 over West Brom), Chelsea (1-0 over Southampton) and Arsenal (1-0 over Newcastle) were hardly overwhelming in their handling of weaker sides.  Liverpool did dispatch Bournemouth rather easily; perhaps recalling how they coughed up a 2-0 lead to lose 3-4 in this fixture last year, the Reds put the hammer down and pulled away.  And the defender Liverpool fans love to hate - Dejan Lovren - got a highlight reel goal with his parallel to the ground diving header; we'll make it this week's
YouTubeableMoment.


Playing With 10 Men Is No Way to Go Through the EPL

Watford now have a three game streak of having a man sent off.  They lost all three.  This weekend, already down 0-2, Deeney got his red card at 33 minutes and the Hornets went on to lose 1-4, this despite the sporting gesture of Huddersfield to get a man of their own sent off at 61 minutes.  Last week the ejection was in the 39th minute of a 0-0 match that they went on to lose 0-1 to Burnley.  But the most spectacular of the series was when Tom Cleverley got himself a red card in the 87th minute with Watford up 1-0 vs Crystal Palace; about six minutes later they had lost 1-2.  Marco Silva is probably really wishing he had gotten the Everton job.


Did He Dive? Ndidi Did

Win or lose, Crystal Palace may be the most watchable side in the EPL.  Always something fun happening.  Though this week's match with Leicester might not have been as competitive as expected, the match was highly entertaining.  Great back and forth action.  And the icing on the cake was perhaps one of the finest dives in recent memory.  Watch here as Wilfred Ndidi goes down without a whisper of contact.  Looks like it may be worth 5 Ronaldos but I'm not a certified diving judge.  Maybe BFS co-founder Dennis will weigh in with his assessment in the Comments section.  With the 3-0 win, the Eagles escaped the relegation zone.


Mid-season Assessment

Looking at the results to date and the 538 projections, we're looking at three distinct groups - the Champions League contenders, the middle of the table and the relegation candidates.  The forecasted EPL table is here.  The CL candidates are the usual suspects - Man City, Man United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham.  The tiny mid table is Burnley, Watford, Leicester and Everton.  The rest are the relegation candidates.  Some look less relegatable than others; I'll put Southampton, Crystal Palace, Huddersfield and maybe West Ham in that category.

For the fun of it, I repeated the Newcastle exercise of looking at results to see how luck has or hasn't been a factor in a team's standing.  See the table below - first column points to date, second is based on 538 analysis of each match and third column is my goals scored/goals allowed model.  The 538 approach is about goals that coulda/shoulda been scored based on chances created so the luck aspect there is about scoring/not giving up goals.  My approach is more about distribution of goals that were scored or not allowed; was a team unlucky in the distribution of goals across the matches they've played?

                                      Actual      538           SF

Man City	52	54	43
Man United	41	32	41
Burnley	32	19	30
Tottenham	31	42	35
Crystal Palace	17	33	13
Newcastle	15	18	15

The 538 analysis says Man City outplayed Everton but only got a draw so only bad luck there.  My goal differential model assumes a certain number of draws; maybe the Citizens have been a little lucky not to see more draws - or they might just be that good.  These were not necessarily random picks of teams to review but it did work out nicely in terms of contrasts.  Man United look to have had good luck, at least based on the 538 model, while Spurs not so much (under either approach).  Similarly, Burnley seem to have been quite fortunate in terms of chances created while Crystal Palace could use a rabbit's foot.   This kind of stuff tends to even out over time so while Burnley are not going to be in a relegation battle, they probably don't have the stuff of Champions League (doesn't mean I want to play them at Turf Moor though).  Probably means Michael B shouldn't despair of Spurs' Champions League hopes.  Newcastle? As I said earlier, WYSIWYG and I'll be settling in for a relegation fight.


Let the Festivities Begin

Technically, last weekend was the start of the Twelve Days of Football but it really gets going this Friday.  And a tasty start it will be, with Arsenal - Liverpool at 2:45 on NBCSN.  Nine more games on Saturday, eight on Tuesday and single games on Wednesday and Thursday.  Take a day to rest, then games everyday from Saturday through Thursday.

Newcastle have a tremendously important match against West Ham on Saturday (10 am CNBC).  Last time we faced them, the Hammers were in their "blue period" and we got an easy 3-0 victory.  Form has completely switched plus the match is at Olympic Stadium.  West Ham are exactly the type of side that will define Newcastle's relegation struggle.  The Boxing Day match is Man City so not seeing any points there.  Then they have Brighton and Stoke - two more relegation competitors - on 12/30 and 1/1.  So three critical matches in short order.  Scary thought.

Not seeing a lot of blockbuster matchups in the holiday period but there are some notables.  Like a good 'ol London derby - Arsenal-Chelsea - on 1/3 at 2:45 on NBCSN.  Will be watching this Saturday as Spurs travel to Turf Moor to face Burnley; last time Tottenham faced a mid-table team known for its defense (Huddersfield) they hammered them 4-0.  The rest of the Spurs holiday calendar isn't real frightening, with Southampton, Swansea and West Ham completing their schedule.

Normally I would be all over Swansea-Crystal Palace (I'm serious - always an interesting fixture) but it might be tough to see given that it's on NBC Gold at the same time as Newcastle.  Oh, who am I kidding?  I'll watch as many of these as I can get to.

No post next week as I'll be watching too much and also have some writing to do at my other gig.  We'll be back the first week in January with the holiday game ratings.  Enjoy the holidays!

The Twelve Days of Football

Actually it's 17 19 20 days. Every club will have five matches between 12/16 and 1/4 and at some point everybody will play two matches in three days.  The period was extended by one day because the New Year's Eve game between Tottenham and West Ham at Wembley got moved to January 4th based on "transport concerns." Expecting resources to be already stretched by the holiday, officials were going to limit attendance to 43,000, about half of the stadium's capacity.  Moving the match to the 4th means they can sell tickets to full capacity.

BFS will once again use its exclusive Santa rating system to assess how the teams fared in the holiday period:

	From Paul McCartney - "Simply having a wonderful Christmastime"
	Santa obviously read your list very carefully
	Nice enough but you didn't get the Red Ryder carbine-action, two hundred shot Range Model air rifle with a compass in the stock and this thing which tells time you really wanted
	Ties are a nice gift but how many do you really need?
	You may have been naughtier than you realized

Walk A Mile in Craig Pawson's Boots

Well the internet has certainly been full of debate about whether Craig Pawson got the PK call right in the Merseyside derby that ended 1-1.  For every pundit that is adamant it was a foul, I'll find another who thinks it was a travesty.  For every ex-player who feels Lovren was hard done, I'll get you one who says it was a stone cold penalty.  And so on.  I will note that even many Liverpool-centric sites have said the call was right.  You can get a good look at the incident here.

Frankly, labeling it nonsense or absolutely obvious overstates how difficult a call this was.  It is true that contact or putting your hands on a player is not by itself a foul.  I'd be rich if I had a nickel for every time I've had to explain to coaches and parents why an incident with significant contact and a player going down wasn't a foul but minor contact without the player falling was. And, you could argue that Calvert-Lewin alters his path to ensure that contact does occur.  Does he go down too easily?  Not really relevant to the discussion but he was coming in at full speed and Lovren's contact was in the same direction so I'm not sure it was easy for the Everton attacker to keep his balance.

IMHO, there was enough here for the call.  I would have signaled for it (or more accurately hope I would have had the guts to call it) had it occurred in a game I was reffing.  Let's take a look at the Laws of the Game.

1. Direct free kick
A direct free kick is awarded if a player commits any of the following offences
against an opponent in a manner considered by the referee to be careless,
reckless or using excessive force:
• charges
• jumps at
• kicks or attempts to kick
• pushes
• strikes or attempts to strike (including head-butt)
• tackles or challenges
• trips or attempts to trip
If an offence involves contact it is penalised by a direct free kick or penalty
kick.
• Careless is when a player shows a lack of attention or consideration when
making a challenge or acts without precaution. No disciplinary sanction is
needed
• Reckless is when a player acts with disregard to the danger to, or
consequences for, an opponent and must be cautioned
• Using excessive force is when a player exceeds the necessary use of force and endangers the safety of an opponent and must be sent off

It's true that Lovren did not extend his arms but charging is also a foul.  Was there contact?  I thought so.  Was it careless?  Again I think so.  I based much of that on the relative positions of the players.  Look at about 2:09 in the video.  That does not look like shoulder to shoulder to me but rather Lovren's chest to the back right side of Calvert-Lewin.  What was Lovren supposed to do you might ask?  He's supposed to know that he's been beaten and if he doesn't change direction or speed he's going to end up charging into Calvert-Lewin.  Btw, Lovren got a yellow in the incident but I think that might have been for kicking the ball away as Rooney was preparing for the PK. 

Three final thoughts on the matter.  First, if this is the "worst call" we see this year then good on the referees.  Second, does anybody think Sam Allardyce doesn't give a similar interview to Jurgen Klopp if the call goes the other way?  And lastly, if the EPL had VAR, do you think the video reveals evidence of a clear and obvious error?   For me, honest answers to all of those questions say this was an extremely close call and ranting about it on one side or the other is just bluster.


Kriticizing Klopp

Not a good week on the internet for Jurgen Klopp.  He's taken a boatload of criticism for two post-match interviews but also for his player selection for the derby.  The two interviews can be seen here and here; surely not his best moments but actually not as bad as I was expecting.  Imagine the "Special One" in the same situation.  Why do we have to hear from them as they walk off the pitch?  Seems like a surefire way to for "uncomfortable" situations to arise.

As for player selection issues, he's taking heat for leaving Coutinho, Firmino, Wijnaldum and Emre Can out of the starting eleven for Everton.  I can see Jurgen's point of view on this one too, but only up to a point.  Looking at EPL, Champions League and FA Cup matches, Liverpool have 14 matches in 49 days between 11/18 and 1/5 so player rotation is critical to keeping fresh legs on the pitch.  And while a manager is hired to win derbies, he's also hired, at least in Liverpool's case, to get a top four finish and do well in the Champions League so I can understand that other priorities could lead him to fielding less than the best possible squad for Everton.  And really, the side dominated Everton so did he really get it wrong?  A few missed chances and it was easily 2-0 or 3-0 before the PK even happens.

But maybe Coutinho doesn't miss those chances or creates more.  My problem is that if you look at the fixtures, the hardest ones in this stretch were Chelsea on 11/25, Everton on 12/10 and Arsenal on 12/22.  I realize that technically they hadn't clinched a spot in the Champions League knockout round prior to the 12/6 7-0 pounding of Spartak Moscow but once the result was clear, why not get Coutinho off the pitch and have him available for Sunday.  My point is that I think Klopp should have been planning to field close to his strongest side against Everton and even with fixture congestion, he could have done so.


Results

Geez, I've probably spilled 1,000 words already without talking about the week's results.  With two sets of EPL matches plus the MLS final, things are starting to run together a bit.  I do remember twice abandoning the TV match for NBC Gold in search of more exciting and meaningful stuff.  For example, the taut Burnley-Watford matchup between EPL upstarts was excellent viewing, as the Hornets, though down a man, played tough until to the end in an 0-1 loss.  Same thing on Tuesday as I switched from Huddersfield-Chelsea to Crystal Palace-Watford and was rewarded with a stirring comeback by the Eagles.  Down 0-1 late, Crystal Palace had taken over the run of the play when Tom Cleverley got his second yellow in the 87th minute.  Down a man for the second match in a row, Watford surrendered goals in the 89th and 92nd minutes and the Selhurst Park crowd went wild.  Despite the implication for Newcastle, I enjoyed the moment.

Christian Benteke reacts to missing the injury-time penalty
 at Selhurst Park. Photograph: Jordan Mansfield/Getty Images

Random recollections from the rest of the fixtures:

- Two soul-sapping losses for Newcastle including 2-3 to Leicester (Perez own goal in the 86th minute) and 0-1 to Everton (massive mistake by keeper Darlow and an absolutely uninspired second half).

- Nobody slipped ahead of the Magpies but everybody below got points (West Ham 4, Crystal Palace 4, Swansea 3 and West Brom 1).

- Crystal Palace could have had six points except that Benteke insisted that he should be the one to take a stoppage time PK instead to the team's usual PK man Luka Milivojevic.  The result was predictable (see picture) and Crystal Palace had to settle for a draw against Bournemouth.

- Is the title race really over after Man City's 2-1 triumph over Man United?  Might be.

- Burnley was briefly in 4th after their win over Watford and even after all the matches concluded, they sit 6th but equal with 4th and 5th place Tottenham and Liverpool on points.  They have allowed just 12 goals all year, with only the Manchester sides doing better at 11.


Recalculating

Last week I suggested that even taking into account the possibility of relegation, Newcastle owner Mike Ashley was probably not totally irrational in turning down the 250 million offer on the table (all figures are in pounds but I'm tired of cutting and pasting the symbol for the British pound).  This was based on two key assumptions - that a relegated Newcastle would only be worth 100m and the chance of relegation was 25%.  Well, after losses to Leicester and Everton, fivethirtyeight has the chance of Newcastle going down at 42% and in fact projects them for 19th.  Plugging that new number into the equation, the analysis suggests that Ashley would have to expect to get 358 million to justify passing on the 250 million sure thing.  But wait, it gets even better.  There are widespread reports that the bid has been raised to 300 million.  Ashley would need to believe he could get 445 million if Newcastle survive relegation to justify passing on that offer.  The man has made many a poor decision as owner of Newcastle but let's hope he gets this one right.

Aside from the higher purchase price, there are discussions about how Benitez would get up to 30 million to spend in the January transfer window even if the sale isn't completed until February or later.  That of course would by no means guarantee that the Magpies would avoid relegation but should improve the odds of staying up.  Also, I would expect that it might be a long road back up if they do go down and Ashley is still the owner, but I'm more optimistic that ownership that just plunked down 300 million would do everything it could to ensure that the club came right back up.


All Hail TFC

Toronto FC completed what should be considered the finest season ever for an MLS club with a 2-0 win over Seattle.  The match was at once closer than the score indicates but also really not that close. Despite dominating in just about every category, the score was 0-0 until Altidore broke through in the

67th minute.  The second goal came in stoppage time.  Seattle did manage two shots on goal this year but were never really in the match, except for the fact they were always one set piece away from the lead or leveling the match.  With the win Toronto completes what they call the domestic triple - winning the Canadian national competition, the Supporters Shield (best record in MLS) and the MLS Cup.  Okay, maybe not the same as winning the EPL, the FA Cup and Champions League but you can only win the competitions you can play in.


U-10 U-7 Stat of the Week

If EPL matches were only 20 minutes long, Newcastle would have 23 points.  Since I'm not going to spend the time to go through everybody's records, I can't tell you how high up the table the Magpies would be.  However, based on this table (page comes up with 15 minute stats so click on the tab for 10 minute intervals).I think they would be in the top six.  Check out the Manchester clubs in the last 10 minutes. 


Goin' Down to Laurel Easton (musical accompaniment courtesy Steve Forbert)

Out of pocket Saturday so will be spending the weekend trying to catch up.  My least favorite fixture of all-time - Arsenal-Newcastle at the Emirates - is Saturday at 10 am.  This never, ever goes well for the Magpies; it's on CNBC if you want to follow the carnage.  The 12:30 NBC featured game might be interesting as Man City host Tottenham.   Otherwise, not seeing stuff that blows me away.  Wait, I take that back.  Leicester - Crystal Palace could be a hoot (Saturday 7:30 NBCSN).  The Foxes have 13 points in the last five games while the Eagles are unbeaten in their last six and always seem to make things interesting.  Might be a goal or four here.

Other TV games include Chelsea-Southampton (Saturday 10 am NBCSN), West Brom - Man United (Sunday 9:15 NBCSN) and Bournemouth-Liverpool (Sunday 11 NBCSN).  There's also a Monday game with Everton hosting Swansea (3 pm NBCSN).

It's possible I could wake up Tuesday morning to see Newcastle at the bottom of the table.  What a comforting thought.  C'mon Ashley, take the deal!

Best Game of the Year?

Lingard's second arrived as Arsenal were beginning
 to build on Lacazette's goal

Sometimes the highly anticipated match ups do pan out.  Man United's 3-1 result over Arsenal was one of those times, at least for the neutrals and United fans; even Gunners fans would have to admit it was pretty good viewing.  Disappointingly (especially for Arsenal), two mistakes gave Man United a 2-0 lead just 11 minutes but fortunately Arsenal gave every indication that they were not out of the match.  Lacazette's early second half goal backed that up. MUN keeper David DeGea was tested regularly but held firm.  Against the run of play, Lingard added to the Manchester lead but the Arsenal pressure left hope for a comeback.  Those hopes were further raised when Pogba got himself sent off in the 74th minute for a ridiculous studs up challenge.  But even with the advantage, Arsenal could get no closer.  Thrilling stuff.

For those who like more x's and o's in their analysis, check out this report from Germantown Friends (I  think) product and former Chestnut Hill Lightning player Henry Bushnell.  Actually, his Monday column for Yahoo Sports should be a regular Monday stop for an incisive look at the EPL weekend. 

Low Bar

Newcastle improved on previous results by losing only 1-3 to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.  Not a huge deal since this was marked down as a loss back in June when the schedule came out.  Did we learn anything new?  Not really.  Matt Richie is probably not suited to play left wingback (and maybe DeAndre Yedlin wasn't solely responsible for some of the defensive breakdowns in early matches).  With another goal, Dwight Gayle now looks, for better or worse, like our best answer up top.  We continue to look like a Championship club and I mean that in the worst way.

The potential sale is looking more like potential and less real every day.  Ashley and Staveley are pretty far apart on price (£300m vs £250m) and the team's recent form isn't helping.  Ashley's valuation is actually more than £300m but we're hearing he would take that price, likely because the team looks more like a relegation candidate than it did a few months ago.  But there is a risk for Staveley as well; if Newcastle stay up, Ashley will be in a better position to get close to, or even better than his valuation.  So we have a £50 million game of chicken.

My first impression was that the potential loss in value to Ashley is greater than the upside of getting his asking price but then I realized we can calculate this.  Fivethirtyeight has Newcastle with a 25% chance of getting relegated.  The top Championship side right now is valued at about 86 m euros.  Let's assume that Newcastle is worth £100m if relegated.  What price does Ashley have to get to make him indifferent between a £250m sure thing now versus taking the risk they get relegated?  Do the algebra and the number is £300m.  So if Ashley thinks he can do better than £300m if they don't get relegated, then £250m isn't enough for him to sell now.  A bunch of critical assumptions there - relegation chance of 25% (actually that feels about right), value of Newcastle as a Championship club (might be more than £100m given Newcastle's stature - which means that £250m won't be enough to entice Ashley) and finally we're assuming Ashley is risk neutral (who knows, but he seems to have taken risks and not spent money in the past and gotten relegated so it's possible he's risk loving, which also means he won't bite at £250m). Still with me?

It's possible that Ashley will allow some spending in January to decrease the likelihood of relegation and to protect the value of his investment.  This really does feel like a critical time for the franchise.  In six months they could be under new ownership with access to funds to improve the roster.  Or they could be back in the Championship division, likely without Benitez, which might mean an extended stay this time. 

Elsewhere

You have to say Tottenham were on the lucky side to come away with a draw at Watford.  At 1-1, Sanchez got himself sent off  (a bit harsh maybe but I think I would have made the same call), leaving Spurs down a man for most of the second half.  The good news is that they were pretty solid even with 10 and held on for the draw.  The lucky news is that Dier could have easily been whistled for handling in the box in stoppage time; I would have called it and you guys know I'm pretty generous about giving the player the benefit of the doubt.  Still, even with the draw, Michael B is out on the ledge with me.

Man City slipped by West Ham 2-1 with another late goal, though not from Raheem Sterling this time.  Instead, David Silva got the honors with a piece of real skill off an equally deft pass from DeBruyne.  We'll make it this week's YouTubeableMoment; looks good from any one of the 53 angles presented, right?

Liverpool got themselves into the top four with a 5-1 pasting of Brighton.  In a relegation worthy contest, West Brom and Crystal Palace struggled to a 0-0 draw.  Everton continues to show signs of life, taking the measure of Huddersfield 2-0.  The Toffees, along with with Leicester (1-0 winners over Burnley), look to be making a case that they should be considered solid mid-table material now.



Derby, MLS Cup, Derby, Derby

Action packed weekend ahead.  Saturday gets going bright and early with a London derby - though it may be derby in name only - as West Ham host Chelsea (7:30 NBCSN).  The MLS Cup final featuring Toronto and Seattle is at 4 pm on ESPN.  Sunday brings two more derbies with Liverpool-Everton at 9:15 and Man United vs Man City at 11:30 (both on NBCSN).

The MLS Cup is a rematch of last year's final.  Here's hoping that they can produce something more interesting this time; recall that Seattle won on kicks from the spot without ever registering a shot on goal in 120 minutes.  Toronto is trying for an unprecedented triple, having won their domestic cup and the Supporters Shield (best record in MLS).  You can find some additional details here.  I continue to remain squarely in the Toronto camp for this one.

What to do about the Manchester derby?  Not really a fan of either side, but a City win would mean at least an 11 point gap at the top.  Even a draw would keep the Citizens up by at least nine.  Bad news for United in that Pogba is suspended and he seems to have keyed an improved offense for the Red Devils.

A few weeks ago I wouldn't have put too much on seeing a good Merseyside derby but Everton may have figured themselves out.  Good thing because Liverpool are pretty hot right now.

Somebody at NBC must have a sense of humor to make Newcastle-Leicester the featured game at 12:30 on Saturday.  I suppose if the good Newcastle team shows up it could be quite an even match up.  But how likely is that?

An interesting match up that will likely be ignored is Burnley-Watford.  These two limited resource sides currently sit 7th and 8th in the table, though they have gotten there by different routes.  Burnley have surrendered just 12 goals, a record only bettered by the two Manchester sides.  Watford have scored 25 but have yielded 26, fourth worst in the EPL.  You'll have to go to NBC Gold for this one but it might be worth it.

Other TV games this weekend include Tottenham-Stoke at 10 am Saturday on NBCSN and Southampton-Arsenal Sunday at 7 am on NBCSN.  Plenty of relegation match ups on NBC Gold at 10 am Saturday - Crystal Palace-Bournemouth, Huddersfield-Brighton and Swansea-West Brom.

Forecast calls for snow most of Saturday.  Sounds like an excuse to watch soccer to me.

Turkeys and Unjust "Desserts"

Yeah I know that's not the saying but deserts doesn't work in the holiday context...

Two themes in the pile of games I saw this week struck me.  First, some teams put up some awful efforts.  Second, some clubs played really well only to see a result taken from them at the very end.

After two deflections, the ball eludes West Brom keeper
Ben Foster and Newcastle are level

Newcastle offered two servings of turkey but managed to steal a point in one of their outings. Saturday they had a few good moments but were never really in the game in an 0-3 loss at home to Watford.  No denying the Hornets are a good side but not that good.  I totally disagree with the announcer who said the Magpies problem was a lack of creativity.  I counted at least five pretty good chances and Jacob Murphy seemed full of ideas.  No, the issue is they can't finish the chances they create.  Joselu missed two more while Gayle, Perez and Mitrovic all failed as well.  Things were going even worse on Tuesday at West Brom.  In a first half that suffered from "a massive lack of quality,"  Newcastle allowed a goal in first half stoppage time for the second match in a row.  Another at 56 minutes had them down 0-2, with absolutely no sign of life.  Ciaran Clark's header from a cross at 59 minutes breathed some life into the squad and they were on the front foot for the rest of the match.  Even so, all the managed was an equalizer that I think deflected off Rondon then Evans.  So we snuck home with a point.

Stat of the Week - With his goal, Ciaran Clark is now tied for the team lead with two.  He's even with Jamal Lascelles and Joselu.  This tells you much about Newcastle's problems.  First, our leading scorers have just two goals and second, two of the leaders are central defenders.  Two goals?  Raheem Sterling gets that many stoppage time goals every week.  We would be up the Tyne without a paddle if not for set piece goals.

Turkey was on the menu for Tottenham too.  Totally lackluster in a 1-1 draw at home to West Brom and then outplayed on the road at Leicester in a 1-2 loss.  Absolutely nothing wrong with the Leicester goals though, especially this one (sorry, couldn't find better video) from Mahrez, which was originally going to be the YouTubeable Moment of the week.

Everton had two absolutely wretched outings but salvaged something by stuffing West Ham on Wednesday.  The Toffees started on Thanksgiving night with a 1-5 loss to Atalanta in Europa League action.  The match was still close after Everton pulled to 1-2 but they then surrendered three goals in the final eight minutes.  They were right back at it Sunday, dropping a 1-4 decision to Southampton.  A 4-0 pasting of West Ham provided some solace and actually moved them to 13th in the table.


Nobody Said This Game Was Fair

Tarkowski pushes Ramsey for PK

 I saw three teams play extremely well and walk away with nothing for their efforts.  On Sunday, Sean Dyche's Burnley squad was tough as nails for 91 minutes and appeared to be ready to take a 0-0 draw with Arsenal.  But then defender James Tarkowski pushed Aaron Ramsey in the box and Alexis Sanchez  dispatched the PK for a cruel 0-1 loss.  Ramsey made a meal of the push but I thought it was the correct call (soft but accurate?); you just shouldn't be using your arms like that.

That match was immediately followed by Huddersfield giving Man City all they could handle.  The Terriers actually took a 1-0 lead into halftime.  A PK early in the second half leveled things but Huddersfield didn't cave under intense pressure and the match remained even.  In the 84th minute, a Jay Zeus shot rebounded off the keeper right into Sterling's path and his momentum basically pushed it into the goal.

Sterling runs into winning goal at Huddersfield

But wait, we're not done.  On Wednesday Southampton came into the Ethiad and made life tough for Man City again.  A really nice goal from Romeu off a Boufal cutback pass had leveled things at 1-1 at 75 minutes.  But at 95:03, or basically the last play of the game, Sterling fired in an incredible shot to steal back the three points.  Nothing fluky about this one, as you can see from the video (this week's YouTubeableMoment).



The Shrinking Middle Class Table

By my count, the middle of the table right now consists of Watford at 21 points.  All 12 teams below them look to be relegation threats.  Tottenham, who are in a mini slump, are above them with 24 points.  Burnley are 6th with 25 points but they might actually be the other mid-table side.  Above Burnley you have the usuals (in reverse order) - Liverpool, Arsenal (winners in five of last six), Chelsea, Man United and Man City.  The Citizens copped four extra points with late strikes in their last two matches and still lead by eight points.

With the huge crowd of relegatables, it becomes difficult to decide who to worry about.  Wednesday's Everton-West Ham fixture was a good example.  I might have preferred a draw but maybe Everton have a better chance of sorting things out so perhaps it's good that West Ham didn't get any points.  Yes, it's an ugly way to view the Premier League.  But I spent a season in the Championship Division following my team via an on-line blog so don't judge me harshly.


Manager Musical Chairs

Alan Pardew and Sam Allardyce are back.  Pardew will be at West Brom while Allardyce will be taking over at Everton.  We're not counting these as sackings because it was clear that Gary Megson at West Brom and David Unsworth at Everton were caretaker managers.  Apparently, the official announcement of Allardyce's appointment came via Twitter which has left some quite miffed.


Altidore Channels Kirk Gibson

Remember the opening game of the 1988 World Series, in which an injured Kirk Gibson hit a game winning home run for the Dodgers and limped around the bases?  Jozy Altidore sort of did that in Toronto's 1-0 win over Columbus in the MLS Eastern Conference final.  He picked up an ankle injury and appeared headed for the bench.  Instead, he got taped up and returned to play.  He then combined with Giovinco and Vasquez for this beauty of a game winner.  You can see him sort of limping as he celebrates.  Because of the away goal rule, the match was tense until the final whistle as a late score by Columbus would have sent them to the final.  But I wouldn't say it was compelling soccer.  And I sure Toronto doesn't give a damn.

As expected, Seattle finished off Houston with the 3-0 result at home to complete the 5-0 aggregate win.  Little drama here although there were some quality finishes by the Sounders.  I'm satisfied that the two best sides in MLS will meet for the MLS Cup on December 9th.  Doesn't always work out that way.


Early Thoughts on the World Cup Draw

We'll circle back to this but I did want to post some initial impressions on the World Cup draw which was held Friday morning.

1) It had all the pompous circumstances of an Academy Awards show with none of the screw-ups
2) Nice work by host Gary Lineker to slip in "Hand of God" reference as Diego Maradona did the draws from Pot 2
3) I'm going with Group F as the Group of Death with Germany, Mexico, Sweden and South Korea
4) Group C is my choice for the Group of Pneumonia (not as fatal as the Group of Death but not good for your health) with France, Denmark, Peru and Australia
5) Not content to have rigged the US election, Russia fixed the World Cup draw as well; how else to explain their grouping with Uruguay, Egypt and Saudi Arabia?
6) The US avoided the Group of Death but since they have avoided the World Cup Finals altogether, this is not a good thing

Plenty of time to discuss in more detail in the coming months.


Schedule

A remarkably competitive set of matches on tap for the weekend, with an occasional mismatch.  Looking right at you Newcastle.  Nothing like starting your Saturday morning off with a trip by the Magpies to Stamford Bridge to face Chelsea.  No expectations of any kind for a result here but if you like car crashes, tune in at 7:30 on NBCSN.

Things get more interesting from there.  Perhaps surprising to say this but Watford - Tottenham at 10 on CNBC could be a great watch - Michael B will groan and say this shouldn't be close but probably will be given Spurs recent form.  All the other 10 am matches look tight as well, possibly save Brighton hosting Liverpool but even there you never know.  I might be tempted to seek out Leicester-Burnley or maybe Everton - Huddersfield live streaming on NBC Gold.  Saturday action concludes with the very tasty fixture at 12:30 on NBC featuring Arsenal hosting Man United. 

Sunday has a south coast match up of Bournemouth - Southampton (8:30 NBCSN) which should be close followed by Man City hosting West Ham (11 NBCSN) which probably won't be close.  With the right (wrong?) set of results, Man City could have a double digit lead by the end of the weekend.  Where's the fun in that?