Wake Up and Smell the Relegation

Ozil's game winner vs Newcastle; well struck and could have
been YouTubeableMoment but I don't need to see it anymore.

Despite a reasonably creditable performance against Arsenal (for the second half at least), Newcastle went down 0-1 at the Emirates and fell into the bottom three.  Everything I see says they got there on merit.  The Magpies four wins came against 14, 15, 17, and 20 in the table; the three draws were versus 7, 12 and 19.  I don't think they've been particularly unlucky, or more accurately, their luck has been balanced.  Going through the 538 metrics you can see maybe the Huddersfield, Brighton and Watford losses could have been wins and the Leicester and Everton losses could have been draws.  But at the same time, the Swansea win could have been a loss and the Crystal Palace win a draw; the Liverpool, Southampton and West Brom draws should have been losses.  So the net would be a plus three points, hardly enough to take away the danger.  My model based on goals scored/goals allowed says a team that has scored 16 and yielded 27 should have 15 points so there's nothing to suggest bad luck there either.

No, unfortunately, Newcastle look to be just about where they should be.  The 538 model now has Newcastle with a 45% chance of relegated so the $250 million on the table to buy the club is equal to $372 million in May if the Magpies were to survive.  Maybe I don't understand the timing of TV money or something but I can't see Ashley having any leverage right now.  There are so many reports coming out but always sourced as "someone familiar with the negotiations" so it's hard to put too much stock in them.  But it does sound increasingly unlikely that a deal could be completed before the January transfer window ends.  Limited or no spending means it's going to be close as to whether they can stay up.

Thursday morning update - Newcastle sign Chelsea's Robert Kenedy (not a typo) on loan deal.  Positives?  He can play anywhere on left side and he brings some pace to a team not tremendously blessed with speed.  Negatives?  This year has only featured in League Cup matches and can get himself in hot water.  I rate this as more than just "rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic" but the iceberg still looms ahead.


In Another League?

Let's see, Man City shrugged off one of the purported challengers - Tottenham - with an easy 4-1 win while others in the chase pack mostly did little to distinguish themselves. Man United (2-1 over West Brom), Chelsea (1-0 over Southampton) and Arsenal (1-0 over Newcastle) were hardly overwhelming in their handling of weaker sides.  Liverpool did dispatch Bournemouth rather easily; perhaps recalling how they coughed up a 2-0 lead to lose 3-4 in this fixture last year, the Reds put the hammer down and pulled away.  And the defender Liverpool fans love to hate - Dejan Lovren - got a highlight reel goal with his parallel to the ground diving header; we'll make it this week's
YouTubeableMoment.


Playing With 10 Men Is No Way to Go Through the EPL

Watford now have a three game streak of having a man sent off.  They lost all three.  This weekend, already down 0-2, Deeney got his red card at 33 minutes and the Hornets went on to lose 1-4, this despite the sporting gesture of Huddersfield to get a man of their own sent off at 61 minutes.  Last week the ejection was in the 39th minute of a 0-0 match that they went on to lose 0-1 to Burnley.  But the most spectacular of the series was when Tom Cleverley got himself a red card in the 87th minute with Watford up 1-0 vs Crystal Palace; about six minutes later they had lost 1-2.  Marco Silva is probably really wishing he had gotten the Everton job.


Did He Dive? Ndidi Did

Win or lose, Crystal Palace may be the most watchable side in the EPL.  Always something fun happening.  Though this week's match with Leicester might not have been as competitive as expected, the match was highly entertaining.  Great back and forth action.  And the icing on the cake was perhaps one of the finest dives in recent memory.  Watch here as Wilfred Ndidi goes down without a whisper of contact.  Looks like it may be worth 5 Ronaldos but I'm not a certified diving judge.  Maybe BFS co-founder Dennis will weigh in with his assessment in the Comments section.  With the 3-0 win, the Eagles escaped the relegation zone.


Mid-season Assessment

Looking at the results to date and the 538 projections, we're looking at three distinct groups - the Champions League contenders, the middle of the table and the relegation candidates.  The forecasted EPL table is here.  The CL candidates are the usual suspects - Man City, Man United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham.  The tiny mid table is Burnley, Watford, Leicester and Everton.  The rest are the relegation candidates.  Some look less relegatable than others; I'll put Southampton, Crystal Palace, Huddersfield and maybe West Ham in that category.

For the fun of it, I repeated the Newcastle exercise of looking at results to see how luck has or hasn't been a factor in a team's standing.  See the table below - first column points to date, second is based on 538 analysis of each match and third column is my goals scored/goals allowed model.  The 538 approach is about goals that coulda/shoulda been scored based on chances created so the luck aspect there is about scoring/not giving up goals.  My approach is more about distribution of goals that were scored or not allowed; was a team unlucky in the distribution of goals across the matches they've played?

                                      Actual      538           SF

Man City	52	54	43
Man United	41	32	41
Burnley	32	19	30
Tottenham	31	42	35
Crystal Palace	17	33	13
Newcastle	15	18	15

The 538 analysis says Man City outplayed Everton but only got a draw so only bad luck there.  My goal differential model assumes a certain number of draws; maybe the Citizens have been a little lucky not to see more draws - or they might just be that good.  These were not necessarily random picks of teams to review but it did work out nicely in terms of contrasts.  Man United look to have had good luck, at least based on the 538 model, while Spurs not so much (under either approach).  Similarly, Burnley seem to have been quite fortunate in terms of chances created while Crystal Palace could use a rabbit's foot.   This kind of stuff tends to even out over time so while Burnley are not going to be in a relegation battle, they probably don't have the stuff of Champions League (doesn't mean I want to play them at Turf Moor though).  Probably means Michael B shouldn't despair of Spurs' Champions League hopes.  Newcastle? As I said earlier, WYSIWYG and I'll be settling in for a relegation fight.


Let the Festivities Begin

Technically, last weekend was the start of the Twelve Days of Football but it really gets going this Friday.  And a tasty start it will be, with Arsenal - Liverpool at 2:45 on NBCSN.  Nine more games on Saturday, eight on Tuesday and single games on Wednesday and Thursday.  Take a day to rest, then games everyday from Saturday through Thursday.

Newcastle have a tremendously important match against West Ham on Saturday (10 am CNBC).  Last time we faced them, the Hammers were in their "blue period" and we got an easy 3-0 victory.  Form has completely switched plus the match is at Olympic Stadium.  West Ham are exactly the type of side that will define Newcastle's relegation struggle.  The Boxing Day match is Man City so not seeing any points there.  Then they have Brighton and Stoke - two more relegation competitors - on 12/30 and 1/1.  So three critical matches in short order.  Scary thought.

Not seeing a lot of blockbuster matchups in the holiday period but there are some notables.  Like a good 'ol London derby - Arsenal-Chelsea - on 1/3 at 2:45 on NBCSN.  Will be watching this Saturday as Spurs travel to Turf Moor to face Burnley; last time Tottenham faced a mid-table team known for its defense (Huddersfield) they hammered them 4-0.  The rest of the Spurs holiday calendar isn't real frightening, with Southampton, Swansea and West Ham completing their schedule.

Normally I would be all over Swansea-Crystal Palace (I'm serious - always an interesting fixture) but it might be tough to see given that it's on NBC Gold at the same time as Newcastle.  Oh, who am I kidding?  I'll watch as many of these as I can get to.

No post next week as I'll be watching too much and also have some writing to do at my other gig.  We'll be back the first week in January with the holiday game ratings.  Enjoy the holidays!

The Twelve Days of Football

Actually it's 17 19 20 days. Every club will have five matches between 12/16 and 1/4 and at some point everybody will play two matches in three days.  The period was extended by one day because the New Year's Eve game between Tottenham and West Ham at Wembley got moved to January 4th based on "transport concerns." Expecting resources to be already stretched by the holiday, officials were going to limit attendance to 43,000, about half of the stadium's capacity.  Moving the match to the 4th means they can sell tickets to full capacity.

BFS will once again use its exclusive Santa rating system to assess how the teams fared in the holiday period:

	From Paul McCartney - "Simply having a wonderful Christmastime"
	Santa obviously read your list very carefully
	Nice enough but you didn't get the Red Ryder carbine-action, two hundred shot Range Model air rifle with a compass in the stock and this thing which tells time you really wanted
	Ties are a nice gift but how many do you really need?
	You may have been naughtier than you realized

Walk A Mile in Craig Pawson's Boots

Well the internet has certainly been full of debate about whether Craig Pawson got the PK call right in the Merseyside derby that ended 1-1.  For every pundit that is adamant it was a foul, I'll find another who thinks it was a travesty.  For every ex-player who feels Lovren was hard done, I'll get you one who says it was a stone cold penalty.  And so on.  I will note that even many Liverpool-centric sites have said the call was right.  You can get a good look at the incident here.

Frankly, labeling it nonsense or absolutely obvious overstates how difficult a call this was.  It is true that contact or putting your hands on a player is not by itself a foul.  I'd be rich if I had a nickel for every time I've had to explain to coaches and parents why an incident with significant contact and a player going down wasn't a foul but minor contact without the player falling was. And, you could argue that Calvert-Lewin alters his path to ensure that contact does occur.  Does he go down too easily?  Not really relevant to the discussion but he was coming in at full speed and Lovren's contact was in the same direction so I'm not sure it was easy for the Everton attacker to keep his balance.

IMHO, there was enough here for the call.  I would have signaled for it (or more accurately hope I would have had the guts to call it) had it occurred in a game I was reffing.  Let's take a look at the Laws of the Game.

1. Direct free kick
A direct free kick is awarded if a player commits any of the following offences
against an opponent in a manner considered by the referee to be careless,
reckless or using excessive force:
• charges
• jumps at
• kicks or attempts to kick
• pushes
• strikes or attempts to strike (including head-butt)
• tackles or challenges
• trips or attempts to trip
If an offence involves contact it is penalised by a direct free kick or penalty
kick.
• Careless is when a player shows a lack of attention or consideration when
making a challenge or acts without precaution. No disciplinary sanction is
needed
• Reckless is when a player acts with disregard to the danger to, or
consequences for, an opponent and must be cautioned
• Using excessive force is when a player exceeds the necessary use of force and endangers the safety of an opponent and must be sent off

It's true that Lovren did not extend his arms but charging is also a foul.  Was there contact?  I thought so.  Was it careless?  Again I think so.  I based much of that on the relative positions of the players.  Look at about 2:09 in the video.  That does not look like shoulder to shoulder to me but rather Lovren's chest to the back right side of Calvert-Lewin.  What was Lovren supposed to do you might ask?  He's supposed to know that he's been beaten and if he doesn't change direction or speed he's going to end up charging into Calvert-Lewin.  Btw, Lovren got a yellow in the incident but I think that might have been for kicking the ball away as Rooney was preparing for the PK. 

Three final thoughts on the matter.  First, if this is the "worst call" we see this year then good on the referees.  Second, does anybody think Sam Allardyce doesn't give a similar interview to Jurgen Klopp if the call goes the other way?  And lastly, if the EPL had VAR, do you think the video reveals evidence of a clear and obvious error?   For me, honest answers to all of those questions say this was an extremely close call and ranting about it on one side or the other is just bluster.


Kriticizing Klopp

Not a good week on the internet for Jurgen Klopp.  He's taken a boatload of criticism for two post-match interviews but also for his player selection for the derby.  The two interviews can be seen here and here; surely not his best moments but actually not as bad as I was expecting.  Imagine the "Special One" in the same situation.  Why do we have to hear from them as they walk off the pitch?  Seems like a surefire way to for "uncomfortable" situations to arise.

As for player selection issues, he's taking heat for leaving Coutinho, Firmino, Wijnaldum and Emre Can out of the starting eleven for Everton.  I can see Jurgen's point of view on this one too, but only up to a point.  Looking at EPL, Champions League and FA Cup matches, Liverpool have 14 matches in 49 days between 11/18 and 1/5 so player rotation is critical to keeping fresh legs on the pitch.  And while a manager is hired to win derbies, he's also hired, at least in Liverpool's case, to get a top four finish and do well in the Champions League so I can understand that other priorities could lead him to fielding less than the best possible squad for Everton.  And really, the side dominated Everton so did he really get it wrong?  A few missed chances and it was easily 2-0 or 3-0 before the PK even happens.

But maybe Coutinho doesn't miss those chances or creates more.  My problem is that if you look at the fixtures, the hardest ones in this stretch were Chelsea on 11/25, Everton on 12/10 and Arsenal on 12/22.  I realize that technically they hadn't clinched a spot in the Champions League knockout round prior to the 12/6 7-0 pounding of Spartak Moscow but once the result was clear, why not get Coutinho off the pitch and have him available for Sunday.  My point is that I think Klopp should have been planning to field close to his strongest side against Everton and even with fixture congestion, he could have done so.


Results

Geez, I've probably spilled 1,000 words already without talking about the week's results.  With two sets of EPL matches plus the MLS final, things are starting to run together a bit.  I do remember twice abandoning the TV match for NBC Gold in search of more exciting and meaningful stuff.  For example, the taut Burnley-Watford matchup between EPL upstarts was excellent viewing, as the Hornets, though down a man, played tough until to the end in an 0-1 loss.  Same thing on Tuesday as I switched from Huddersfield-Chelsea to Crystal Palace-Watford and was rewarded with a stirring comeback by the Eagles.  Down 0-1 late, Crystal Palace had taken over the run of the play when Tom Cleverley got his second yellow in the 87th minute.  Down a man for the second match in a row, Watford surrendered goals in the 89th and 92nd minutes and the Selhurst Park crowd went wild.  Despite the implication for Newcastle, I enjoyed the moment.

Christian Benteke reacts to missing the injury-time penalty
 at Selhurst Park. Photograph: Jordan Mansfield/Getty Images

Random recollections from the rest of the fixtures:

- Two soul-sapping losses for Newcastle including 2-3 to Leicester (Perez own goal in the 86th minute) and 0-1 to Everton (massive mistake by keeper Darlow and an absolutely uninspired second half).

- Nobody slipped ahead of the Magpies but everybody below got points (West Ham 4, Crystal Palace 4, Swansea 3 and West Brom 1).

- Crystal Palace could have had six points except that Benteke insisted that he should be the one to take a stoppage time PK instead to the team's usual PK man Luka Milivojevic.  The result was predictable (see picture) and Crystal Palace had to settle for a draw against Bournemouth.

- Is the title race really over after Man City's 2-1 triumph over Man United?  Might be.

- Burnley was briefly in 4th after their win over Watford and even after all the matches concluded, they sit 6th but equal with 4th and 5th place Tottenham and Liverpool on points.  They have allowed just 12 goals all year, with only the Manchester sides doing better at 11.


Recalculating

Last week I suggested that even taking into account the possibility of relegation, Newcastle owner Mike Ashley was probably not totally irrational in turning down the 250 million offer on the table (all figures are in pounds but I'm tired of cutting and pasting the symbol for the British pound).  This was based on two key assumptions - that a relegated Newcastle would only be worth 100m and the chance of relegation was 25%.  Well, after losses to Leicester and Everton, fivethirtyeight has the chance of Newcastle going down at 42% and in fact projects them for 19th.  Plugging that new number into the equation, the analysis suggests that Ashley would have to expect to get 358 million to justify passing on the 250 million sure thing.  But wait, it gets even better.  There are widespread reports that the bid has been raised to 300 million.  Ashley would need to believe he could get 445 million if Newcastle survive relegation to justify passing on that offer.  The man has made many a poor decision as owner of Newcastle but let's hope he gets this one right.

Aside from the higher purchase price, there are discussions about how Benitez would get up to 30 million to spend in the January transfer window even if the sale isn't completed until February or later.  That of course would by no means guarantee that the Magpies would avoid relegation but should improve the odds of staying up.  Also, I would expect that it might be a long road back up if they do go down and Ashley is still the owner, but I'm more optimistic that ownership that just plunked down 300 million would do everything it could to ensure that the club came right back up.


All Hail TFC

Toronto FC completed what should be considered the finest season ever for an MLS club with a 2-0 win over Seattle.  The match was at once closer than the score indicates but also really not that close. Despite dominating in just about every category, the score was 0-0 until Altidore broke through in the

67th minute.  The second goal came in stoppage time.  Seattle did manage two shots on goal this year but were never really in the match, except for the fact they were always one set piece away from the lead or leveling the match.  With the win Toronto completes what they call the domestic triple - winning the Canadian national competition, the Supporters Shield (best record in MLS) and the MLS Cup.  Okay, maybe not the same as winning the EPL, the FA Cup and Champions League but you can only win the competitions you can play in.


U-10 U-7 Stat of the Week

If EPL matches were only 20 minutes long, Newcastle would have 23 points.  Since I'm not going to spend the time to go through everybody's records, I can't tell you how high up the table the Magpies would be.  However, based on this table (page comes up with 15 minute stats so click on the tab for 10 minute intervals).I think they would be in the top six.  Check out the Manchester clubs in the last 10 minutes. 


Goin' Down to Laurel Easton (musical accompaniment courtesy Steve Forbert)

Out of pocket Saturday so will be spending the weekend trying to catch up.  My least favorite fixture of all-time - Arsenal-Newcastle at the Emirates - is Saturday at 10 am.  This never, ever goes well for the Magpies; it's on CNBC if you want to follow the carnage.  The 12:30 NBC featured game might be interesting as Man City host Tottenham.   Otherwise, not seeing stuff that blows me away.  Wait, I take that back.  Leicester - Crystal Palace could be a hoot (Saturday 7:30 NBCSN).  The Foxes have 13 points in the last five games while the Eagles are unbeaten in their last six and always seem to make things interesting.  Might be a goal or four here.

Other TV games include Chelsea-Southampton (Saturday 10 am NBCSN), West Brom - Man United (Sunday 9:15 NBCSN) and Bournemouth-Liverpool (Sunday 11 NBCSN).  There's also a Monday game with Everton hosting Swansea (3 pm NBCSN).

It's possible I could wake up Tuesday morning to see Newcastle at the bottom of the table.  What a comforting thought.  C'mon Ashley, take the deal!

Best Game of the Year?

Lingard's second arrived as Arsenal were beginning
 to build on Lacazette's goal

Sometimes the highly anticipated match ups do pan out.  Man United's 3-1 result over Arsenal was one of those times, at least for the neutrals and United fans; even Gunners fans would have to admit it was pretty good viewing.  Disappointingly (especially for Arsenal), two mistakes gave Man United a 2-0 lead just 11 minutes but fortunately Arsenal gave every indication that they were not out of the match.  Lacazette's early second half goal backed that up. MUN keeper David DeGea was tested regularly but held firm.  Against the run of play, Lingard added to the Manchester lead but the Arsenal pressure left hope for a comeback.  Those hopes were further raised when Pogba got himself sent off in the 74th minute for a ridiculous studs up challenge.  But even with the advantage, Arsenal could get no closer.  Thrilling stuff.

For those who like more x's and o's in their analysis, check out this report from Germantown Friends (I  think) product and former Chestnut Hill Lightning player Henry Bushnell.  Actually, his Monday column for Yahoo Sports should be a regular Monday stop for an incisive look at the EPL weekend. 

Low Bar

Newcastle improved on previous results by losing only 1-3 to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.  Not a huge deal since this was marked down as a loss back in June when the schedule came out.  Did we learn anything new?  Not really.  Matt Richie is probably not suited to play left wingback (and maybe DeAndre Yedlin wasn't solely responsible for some of the defensive breakdowns in early matches).  With another goal, Dwight Gayle now looks, for better or worse, like our best answer up top.  We continue to look like a Championship club and I mean that in the worst way.

The potential sale is looking more like potential and less real every day.  Ashley and Staveley are pretty far apart on price (£300m vs £250m) and the team's recent form isn't helping.  Ashley's valuation is actually more than £300m but we're hearing he would take that price, likely because the team looks more like a relegation candidate than it did a few months ago.  But there is a risk for Staveley as well; if Newcastle stay up, Ashley will be in a better position to get close to, or even better than his valuation.  So we have a £50 million game of chicken.

My first impression was that the potential loss in value to Ashley is greater than the upside of getting his asking price but then I realized we can calculate this.  Fivethirtyeight has Newcastle with a 25% chance of getting relegated.  The top Championship side right now is valued at about 86 m euros.  Let's assume that Newcastle is worth £100m if relegated.  What price does Ashley have to get to make him indifferent between a £250m sure thing now versus taking the risk they get relegated?  Do the algebra and the number is £300m.  So if Ashley thinks he can do better than £300m if they don't get relegated, then £250m isn't enough for him to sell now.  A bunch of critical assumptions there - relegation chance of 25% (actually that feels about right), value of Newcastle as a Championship club (might be more than £100m given Newcastle's stature - which means that £250m won't be enough to entice Ashley) and finally we're assuming Ashley is risk neutral (who knows, but he seems to have taken risks and not spent money in the past and gotten relegated so it's possible he's risk loving, which also means he won't bite at £250m). Still with me?

It's possible that Ashley will allow some spending in January to decrease the likelihood of relegation and to protect the value of his investment.  This really does feel like a critical time for the franchise.  In six months they could be under new ownership with access to funds to improve the roster.  Or they could be back in the Championship division, likely without Benitez, which might mean an extended stay this time. 

Elsewhere

You have to say Tottenham were on the lucky side to come away with a draw at Watford.  At 1-1, Sanchez got himself sent off  (a bit harsh maybe but I think I would have made the same call), leaving Spurs down a man for most of the second half.  The good news is that they were pretty solid even with 10 and held on for the draw.  The lucky news is that Dier could have easily been whistled for handling in the box in stoppage time; I would have called it and you guys know I'm pretty generous about giving the player the benefit of the doubt.  Still, even with the draw, Michael B is out on the ledge with me.

Man City slipped by West Ham 2-1 with another late goal, though not from Raheem Sterling this time.  Instead, David Silva got the honors with a piece of real skill off an equally deft pass from DeBruyne.  We'll make it this week's YouTubeableMoment; looks good from any one of the 53 angles presented, right?

Liverpool got themselves into the top four with a 5-1 pasting of Brighton.  In a relegation worthy contest, West Brom and Crystal Palace struggled to a 0-0 draw.  Everton continues to show signs of life, taking the measure of Huddersfield 2-0.  The Toffees, along with with Leicester (1-0 winners over Burnley), look to be making a case that they should be considered solid mid-table material now.



Derby, MLS Cup, Derby, Derby

Action packed weekend ahead.  Saturday gets going bright and early with a London derby - though it may be derby in name only - as West Ham host Chelsea (7:30 NBCSN).  The MLS Cup final featuring Toronto and Seattle is at 4 pm on ESPN.  Sunday brings two more derbies with Liverpool-Everton at 9:15 and Man United vs Man City at 11:30 (both on NBCSN).

The MLS Cup is a rematch of last year's final.  Here's hoping that they can produce something more interesting this time; recall that Seattle won on kicks from the spot without ever registering a shot on goal in 120 minutes.  Toronto is trying for an unprecedented triple, having won their domestic cup and the Supporters Shield (best record in MLS).  You can find some additional details here.  I continue to remain squarely in the Toronto camp for this one.

What to do about the Manchester derby?  Not really a fan of either side, but a City win would mean at least an 11 point gap at the top.  Even a draw would keep the Citizens up by at least nine.  Bad news for United in that Pogba is suspended and he seems to have keyed an improved offense for the Red Devils.

A few weeks ago I wouldn't have put too much on seeing a good Merseyside derby but Everton may have figured themselves out.  Good thing because Liverpool are pretty hot right now.

Somebody at NBC must have a sense of humor to make Newcastle-Leicester the featured game at 12:30 on Saturday.  I suppose if the good Newcastle team shows up it could be quite an even match up.  But how likely is that?

An interesting match up that will likely be ignored is Burnley-Watford.  These two limited resource sides currently sit 7th and 8th in the table, though they have gotten there by different routes.  Burnley have surrendered just 12 goals, a record only bettered by the two Manchester sides.  Watford have scored 25 but have yielded 26, fourth worst in the EPL.  You'll have to go to NBC Gold for this one but it might be worth it.

Other TV games this weekend include Tottenham-Stoke at 10 am Saturday on NBCSN and Southampton-Arsenal Sunday at 7 am on NBCSN.  Plenty of relegation match ups on NBC Gold at 10 am Saturday - Crystal Palace-Bournemouth, Huddersfield-Brighton and Swansea-West Brom.

Forecast calls for snow most of Saturday.  Sounds like an excuse to watch soccer to me.

Turkeys and Unjust "Desserts"

Yeah I know that's not the saying but deserts doesn't work in the holiday context...

Two themes in the pile of games I saw this week struck me.  First, some teams put up some awful efforts.  Second, some clubs played really well only to see a result taken from them at the very end.

After two deflections, the ball eludes West Brom keeper
Ben Foster and Newcastle are level

Newcastle offered two servings of turkey but managed to steal a point in one of their outings. Saturday they had a few good moments but were never really in the game in an 0-3 loss at home to Watford.  No denying the Hornets are a good side but not that good.  I totally disagree with the announcer who said the Magpies problem was a lack of creativity.  I counted at least five pretty good chances and Jacob Murphy seemed full of ideas.  No, the issue is they can't finish the chances they create.  Joselu missed two more while Gayle, Perez and Mitrovic all failed as well.  Things were going even worse on Tuesday at West Brom.  In a first half that suffered from "a massive lack of quality,"  Newcastle allowed a goal in first half stoppage time for the second match in a row.  Another at 56 minutes had them down 0-2, with absolutely no sign of life.  Ciaran Clark's header from a cross at 59 minutes breathed some life into the squad and they were on the front foot for the rest of the match.  Even so, all the managed was an equalizer that I think deflected off Rondon then Evans.  So we snuck home with a point.

Stat of the Week - With his goal, Ciaran Clark is now tied for the team lead with two.  He's even with Jamal Lascelles and Joselu.  This tells you much about Newcastle's problems.  First, our leading scorers have just two goals and second, two of the leaders are central defenders.  Two goals?  Raheem Sterling gets that many stoppage time goals every week.  We would be up the Tyne without a paddle if not for set piece goals.

Turkey was on the menu for Tottenham too.  Totally lackluster in a 1-1 draw at home to West Brom and then outplayed on the road at Leicester in a 1-2 loss.  Absolutely nothing wrong with the Leicester goals though, especially this one (sorry, couldn't find better video) from Mahrez, which was originally going to be the YouTubeable Moment of the week.

Everton had two absolutely wretched outings but salvaged something by stuffing West Ham on Wednesday.  The Toffees started on Thanksgiving night with a 1-5 loss to Atalanta in Europa League action.  The match was still close after Everton pulled to 1-2 but they then surrendered three goals in the final eight minutes.  They were right back at it Sunday, dropping a 1-4 decision to Southampton.  A 4-0 pasting of West Ham provided some solace and actually moved them to 13th in the table.


Nobody Said This Game Was Fair

Tarkowski pushes Ramsey for PK

 I saw three teams play extremely well and walk away with nothing for their efforts.  On Sunday, Sean Dyche's Burnley squad was tough as nails for 91 minutes and appeared to be ready to take a 0-0 draw with Arsenal.  But then defender James Tarkowski pushed Aaron Ramsey in the box and Alexis Sanchez  dispatched the PK for a cruel 0-1 loss.  Ramsey made a meal of the push but I thought it was the correct call (soft but accurate?); you just shouldn't be using your arms like that.

That match was immediately followed by Huddersfield giving Man City all they could handle.  The Terriers actually took a 1-0 lead into halftime.  A PK early in the second half leveled things but Huddersfield didn't cave under intense pressure and the match remained even.  In the 84th minute, a Jay Zeus shot rebounded off the keeper right into Sterling's path and his momentum basically pushed it into the goal.

Sterling runs into winning goal at Huddersfield

But wait, we're not done.  On Wednesday Southampton came into the Ethiad and made life tough for Man City again.  A really nice goal from Romeu off a Boufal cutback pass had leveled things at 1-1 at 75 minutes.  But at 95:03, or basically the last play of the game, Sterling fired in an incredible shot to steal back the three points.  Nothing fluky about this one, as you can see from the video (this week's YouTubeableMoment).



The Shrinking Middle Class Table

By my count, the middle of the table right now consists of Watford at 21 points.  All 12 teams below them look to be relegation threats.  Tottenham, who are in a mini slump, are above them with 24 points.  Burnley are 6th with 25 points but they might actually be the other mid-table side.  Above Burnley you have the usuals (in reverse order) - Liverpool, Arsenal (winners in five of last six), Chelsea, Man United and Man City.  The Citizens copped four extra points with late strikes in their last two matches and still lead by eight points.

With the huge crowd of relegatables, it becomes difficult to decide who to worry about.  Wednesday's Everton-West Ham fixture was a good example.  I might have preferred a draw but maybe Everton have a better chance of sorting things out so perhaps it's good that West Ham didn't get any points.  Yes, it's an ugly way to view the Premier League.  But I spent a season in the Championship Division following my team via an on-line blog so don't judge me harshly.


Manager Musical Chairs

Alan Pardew and Sam Allardyce are back.  Pardew will be at West Brom while Allardyce will be taking over at Everton.  We're not counting these as sackings because it was clear that Gary Megson at West Brom and David Unsworth at Everton were caretaker managers.  Apparently, the official announcement of Allardyce's appointment came via Twitter which has left some quite miffed.


Altidore Channels Kirk Gibson

Remember the opening game of the 1988 World Series, in which an injured Kirk Gibson hit a game winning home run for the Dodgers and limped around the bases?  Jozy Altidore sort of did that in Toronto's 1-0 win over Columbus in the MLS Eastern Conference final.  He picked up an ankle injury and appeared headed for the bench.  Instead, he got taped up and returned to play.  He then combined with Giovinco and Vasquez for this beauty of a game winner.  You can see him sort of limping as he celebrates.  Because of the away goal rule, the match was tense until the final whistle as a late score by Columbus would have sent them to the final.  But I wouldn't say it was compelling soccer.  And I sure Toronto doesn't give a damn.

As expected, Seattle finished off Houston with the 3-0 result at home to complete the 5-0 aggregate win.  Little drama here although there were some quality finishes by the Sounders.  I'm satisfied that the two best sides in MLS will meet for the MLS Cup on December 9th.  Doesn't always work out that way.


Early Thoughts on the World Cup Draw

We'll circle back to this but I did want to post some initial impressions on the World Cup draw which was held Friday morning.

1) It had all the pompous circumstances of an Academy Awards show with none of the screw-ups
2) Nice work by host Gary Lineker to slip in "Hand of God" reference as Diego Maradona did the draws from Pot 2
3) I'm going with Group F as the Group of Death with Germany, Mexico, Sweden and South Korea
4) Group C is my choice for the Group of Pneumonia (not as fatal as the Group of Death but not good for your health) with France, Denmark, Peru and Australia
5) Not content to have rigged the US election, Russia fixed the World Cup draw as well; how else to explain their grouping with Uruguay, Egypt and Saudi Arabia?
6) The US avoided the Group of Death but since they have avoided the World Cup Finals altogether, this is not a good thing

Plenty of time to discuss in more detail in the coming months.


Schedule

A remarkably competitive set of matches on tap for the weekend, with an occasional mismatch.  Looking right at you Newcastle.  Nothing like starting your Saturday morning off with a trip by the Magpies to Stamford Bridge to face Chelsea.  No expectations of any kind for a result here but if you like car crashes, tune in at 7:30 on NBCSN.

Things get more interesting from there.  Perhaps surprising to say this but Watford - Tottenham at 10 on CNBC could be a great watch - Michael B will groan and say this shouldn't be close but probably will be given Spurs recent form.  All the other 10 am matches look tight as well, possibly save Brighton hosting Liverpool but even there you never know.  I might be tempted to seek out Leicester-Burnley or maybe Everton - Huddersfield live streaming on NBC Gold.  Saturday action concludes with the very tasty fixture at 12:30 on NBC featuring Arsenal hosting Man United. 

Sunday has a south coast match up of Bournemouth - Southampton (8:30 NBCSN) which should be close followed by Man City hosting West Ham (11 NBCSN) which probably won't be close.  With the right (wrong?) set of results, Man City could have a double digit lead by the end of the weekend.  Where's the fun in that?

 

Tis Better to Have Led and Lost...

...then to never have led at all.  Newcastle manager Rafa Benitez made the brave decision not to "park the bus" at Old Trafford last Saturday.   The result was about 30 minutes of the best football of season and a 1-0 lead thanks to some fine play between Yedlin and Gayle.   So rarely do the Magpies put something that nice together that I have to make it this week's YouTubeableMoment (sorry for the ad but it was the only version I could find).  But, since Newcastle are Newcastle and Man United are better, things deteriorated from there.  The Magpies were sliced open multiple times as the Red Devils cruised to a 4-1 win.  Manquillo and LeJeune had terrible games, and Yedlin was outjumped on one of the goals too; DeAndre is listed as 5'8" so maybe we can give him a pass on that.

Would it have been better to play it tight and lose 0-1 or 0-2 as opposed to absorbing the beat down?  I'm going with the latter.  This style of play will suit Newcastle better as they face opponents of lesser quality, hopefully resulting in fewer 0-1 losses and more 2-1 wins.  We also saw a different Jacob Murphy.  Sure, he stills looks raw but at least this was a "making the wrong choices" kind of inexperience as opposed to the "deer in the headlights" we had been seeing.   So, while it was demoralizing to watch them get shredded like this, ultimately there were positives to be had from what was always a loss on the calendar.


Gunners on the Move

Mustafi and Arsenal celebrate opening goal vs Spurs

Arsenal came up with their best effort of the season to make the North London derby a bit of a runaway as the Gunners cruised to a 2-0 win over Spurs.  Sure, the foul on Sanchez that led to the free kick that led to the goal by a potentially (probably) offside Mustafi was, ahem, soft.  Sure, Sanchez might have been offside on the second goal (probably not).  Make no mistake though, Arsenal thoroughly outplayed Tottenham.  Not to take anything away from the win but Spurs did look off, maybe the worst they've played this year.  The win brought Arsenal all the way back into the fight for a top four spot and left Michael B fearing a return to Europa Cup after two straight years in Champions League.

Leicester put up a good fight but goals by Jay Zeus and DeBruyne were enough for Man City to take a 2-0 win.  As I suggested, the Crystal Palace - Everton match looked to be a good watch, at least for the first half; the 2-2 draw doesn't really help either side in the relegation fight.  Bournemouth, obviously buoyed by their win over Newcastle, spanked Huddersfield 4-0, with two of the goals coming even after the Cherries went a man down; after a great start defensively, the Terriers have surrendered 14 goals in the last 6 matches.  Chelsea's 4-0 win over West Brom sent Tony Pulis packing; for those keeping score at home, that's five EPL managers sacked before December 1 (yes, 1/4 gone before 1/3 season completed).  Of course, after suggesting it was an unexciting fixture, the Brighton (and Hove Albion) Stoke match was a rather enjoyable 2-2 draw.

Man City have an eight point lead after 12 matches and a staggering plus 33 goal differential.  Whether Man United's outburst versus Newcastle indicates a surging side or merely a hopeless opponent remains to be seen.  Certainly the return of Pogba is a positive.  Mark Sunday December 10th on your calendar for the next Manchester derby.


MLS Sleep Play Offs

Those who fell asleep during the first leg of the Toronto - Columbus Eastern Conference final can be excused.  Missing Altidore and Giovinco, Toronto played it safe and the 0-0 draw was perhaps inevitable.  All to play for as they head to Toronto for the second leg. 

Houston - Seattle wasn't scintillating but at least there were goals.  Already down 0-1, Houston got  a man send off for DOGSO.  Their keeper saved the PK but the damage was done.  Seattle added another and taking a 2-0 lead back to their friendly home stadium, you have to think the Sounders are in good position to return to the MLS Cup final.  Btw, is the Houston home pitch the best argument for artificial turf you've ever seen? 


Checking in on Chester

Finally got back to my Football Manager Blues and was shocked to see a calendar that included 12 matches in 38 days and six between 12/16 and 1/1.  Our EPL season is mirroring the real life Man City's, with 12 wins and draw and a +34 goal differential.  Champions League group play has been a little tougher with some road draws but we just qualified for the knockout stage.   The weakest part of our game looks to be tackling so we've made some adjustments to the training routine. 


We Give Thanks for a Full Schedule

Add a midweek slate of EPL games plus the second legs of the MLS playoffs means matches just about every day.  This is what we do right - watch football over the Thanksgiving holiday?

You can take a break from shopping on Friday to check in on West Ham - Leicester at 3 pm on NBCSN.  Both sides are under new management so maybe a change in fortune?

Saturday is the typical full slate - minus that annoying 7:30 early game.  I'll be NBC Gold streaming Newcastle - Watford at St.James' Park.  The Hornets are an excellent side while the Magpies are still sorting things out; I'm not saying Newcastle can't win here but I'm fully prepared for a draw or even a loss.  The 10 am TV matches are Man United - Brighton (NBCSN) and Tottenham-West Brom (CNBC); thinking the home sides are big favorites here.  The featured 12:30 match on NBC looks great with Liverpool hosting Chelsea.  Two more to take in on Sunday with Burnley-Arsenal at Turf Moor ( 9 am CNBC) and Huddersfield-Man City (NBCSN at 11).  Arsenal will be up after big win over Spurs but do not underestimate the Burnley side.  If Huddersfield defense doesn't sort things out, they could be shredded for multiple goals by the Citizens, who seem to be operating on one speed - all out - this year.

The Tuesday/Wednesday TV schedule wasn't out as I wrote this.  Matches to check on would be, um, well nothing jumps out at me.  I'll be watching Newcastle take on West Brom at The Hawthorns on Tuesday; the Baggies are reeling and I have some hope for a result here.  Most of the top of the table look to be favorites in their matches - Leicester v Spurs, Arsenal v Huddersfield, Man City v Southampton, Chelsea v Swansea, Stoke v Liverpool and Watford v Man United.  That last one might be the best hope for a truly competitive contest.  If you're looking for something with more of a relegation feel, go for Everton v West Ham.

Wednesday night at 7:30 on FS1 is the second leg of Toronto-Columbus and the week's viewing concludes with Seattle - Houston.  Pretty good leftovers.








 

Winners and Losers

Peruvian players celebrate 2-0 win over New Zealand

The high stakes playoffs for the final spots in the 2018 World Cup Finals did not produce the finest of football.  Four out of the eight European matches were 0-0 draws and two more were 1-0 affairs that featured a dubious handling call and a ricochet goal. The inter-conferederation playoffs were no better. However, judging by the celebrations of the winners, they really could care less how the matches looked; they're going to Russia.  Pictures capture the contrasting emotions of those who made it and those who didn't.

I saw most of the matches and offer the following random recollections.


Switzerland 1 Northern Ireland 0 - In the first leg, Switzerland benefited from the questionable hand ball call and the return leg in Basel was more notable for the rain-soaked pitch than anything else.  I guess there was the moment when the Swiss cleared a ball off the line; with the away goals rule that actually would have sent Northern Ireland into the finals.  Good on the underdog Northern Ireland side for making this such a close contest.

Italian soccer players after their team’s elimination in a
 World Cup playoff match against Sweden in Milan on Monday.
 CreditLuca Bruno/Associated Press

Croatia 4 Greece 1 - If you missed the first 33 minutes, which I did, you missed all the action.  Croatia was up 2-0 in 20 minutes, Greece grabbed one back but things were pretty much settled with a third goal in the 33rd minute.  I cannot remember a thing from the 0-0 second leg.

Sweden 1 Italy 0 - Very mixed feelings about this.  Sweden's goal in the first leg was a lucky deflection off an Italian defender.  Italy did nothing to engender the support of neutrals as the fans booed during the playing of the Swedish national anthem for the return leg in Milan.  Onslaught is probably the best word for the how the match went but Italy could not break through.  Sad that this was Buffon's final performance; at least he was classy until the end, as he tried to stop the booing during the anthem.  Italy misses the WC for the first time in 60 years.

Denmark 5 Ireland 1 - Christian Eriksen turned a tight qualifying series into a laugher with his hat trick.  After an 0-0 first leg in Denmark, Ireland had taken an early 1-0 lead in front of a delirious Dublin crowd.  Unfortunately, you could see the Danes get stronger as the match went on and two goals in the space of four minutes put the Irish in a deep hole by the 33rd minute.  They would not recover.  You can see all three of Eriksen's goals here.

Australia 3 Honduras 1 - Truly all I can remember from this series was how ridiculously high the grass was on the pitch in Honduras for leg one.  Might as well have been playing in snow.  Not surprisingly, it ended 0-0.  Down Under however, Mile Jedinak, not necessarily known as a goal scorer, put up a hat trick and Australia moved on.

Peru 2 New Zealand 0 - The contrast in pitches was staggering and the first leg in New Zealand looked to be played on a pool table.  Alas, the result was 0-0 too.  Back in Lima, Jefferson Farfan sent Peru on their way with this goal. Subsequent replays show it was slightly deflected but the quality of the buildup and the finish make it my choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment.

So the World Cup field is set and the draw will take place on December 1st.  We'll be talking more about this in subsequent posts.


Rumors from the Tyne

Two big stories coming out this week regarding Newcastle's future.

1) Fernando Torres wants to return to the EPL on a short-term loan for the rest of the season.  Newcastle and Southampton are the two clubs mentioned.  At 33, he would not be the force he was at Atletico Madrid (the first time) or Liverpool.  On the other hand, he might be less risky than spending big bucks on somebody who then has trouble adjusting to the EPL.

2) An Indonesian media outlet reported on 11/12 that Amanda Staveley's group has made an actual bid to purchase Newcastle United with the clear intent to close the deal before year-end.   Other sources say that's not correct but suggest that talks are progressing smoothly and a deal is likely.

Pictures of both the key actors below.  I'll let you figure out who is who.

Where Were We?

EPL action returns this weekend and the MLS playoffs resume on Tuesday.  Can't do much better than a North London derby to start the weekend (7:30 NBCSN).  Arsenal is hosting Spurs, which might not be an advantage for the Gunners given that Tottenham have tended to play better away from Wembley.  Arsenal are scoring goals but only five have allowed more than them.  Have to think there's more pressure on Arsenal here as a loss could leave them farther from the top four.  

An MLS season ticket holder derby at 12:30 on NBC with Jeff H's Man United hosting Newcastle.  Low expectations here for me, given that Man United have allowed just five goals in 11 matches this season.  I suppose we could steal a 0-0 draw but I think that's the only way the Magpies get a result.  But 0-1 or 0-2 seems much more likely.  

The rest of the schedule looks like a big meh to me.  You can see Leicester hosting Man City at 10 am Saturday on NBCSN.  Leicester has surrendered 16 goals while Man City have scored 38; might not be pretty.  I'd be more inclined to check out Crystal Palace vs Everton at Selhurst Park (also 10 am but only on NBC Gold); two teams fighting for the their seasons might make for interesting viewing.  Liverpool - Southampton at Anfield might also be a better choice.  Sunday's match is Watford vs West Ham at 11 (NBCSN) and Monday has Brighton (and Hove Albion) taking on Stoke (3 pm NBCSN); neither would be in the "mouth watering" category.

MLS playoffs get back in gear on Tuesday with the first legs of the conference finals.  Toronto travels to Columbus (last game ever in Columbus before move to Austin?) at 8 pm on ESPN.  Later that night Houston host Seattle at 9:30 on FS1.  Someone please tell me why with the whole night to work with they've scheduled the two matches 90 minutes apart?   Return legs are Tuesday/Wednesday of the following week.  Recall that for the first leg Toronto will be without both Giovinco and Altidore due to suspensions; that might be enough to give Columbus some hope. A more detailed preview of the matchups from ESPN can be found here.  My rooting interests will be with Toronto (not that I like them but I would prefer to see the team that was clearly the best in the regular season actually get the MLS Cup too) and Houston (I have no idea why my sympathies lie with them but for whatever reason I don't like Seattle).

Oh, and so I don't get sh grief from Michael B, I must also note that Atletico Madrid host Real Madrid at 2:45 Saturday on beINSports.  If you expect to run into Michael later this weekend, be sure to check the Tottenham and Atletico results before you do; they'll give you some idea of what to expect his mood to be.  

Exposing Relegatability

Not a word I realize but that's what Newcastle's loss to Bournemouth reveals.  And the 0-1 final actually flatters the Magpies.  Could have been 0-2 or 0-3.  True, Newcastle did have a goal ruled out by a debatable offside call, but from about 20 minutes on, they did little and were hanging on by a thread before Cook's stoppage time header settled the matter.  How much worse is a 0-1 loss than a 0-0 draw.  Meh, either is an indication of serious problems.  No doubt they are missing Merino in the midfield.  And still not much quality up top.  I'm with those who are puzzled why Mitrovic isn't getting some minutes as the scoring drought drags on.

Not much on the takeover front.  One would think that Newcastle's recent form is eating into the purchase price.  Why would you pay EPL money for a Championship Division franchise?  If the sale isn't completed by January 1, would tightwad Mike Ashley risk not making funds available to ensure the team doesn't get relegated?  He has taken risks like that before (how'd that work out?) but maybe because we're talking about his exit strategy here, things might play out differently.


Turning the Clocks Back

The end of daylight savings time meant an extra hour of watching soccer on Sunday, which was helpful given how much there was to see.  Some of it, unfortunately was not very pretty.

The day started at 8 7 am with a rather lukewarm effort from Tottenham as Spurs edged Crystal Palace 1-0.  We'll cut them some slack as that could easily have been a residual hangover of the marvelous midweek win over Real Madrid.  In the next match, Arsenal gamely hung with Man City but the 1-3 result suggests they are just not at the same level this year.  The morning portion of the day concluded with Chelsea's 1-0 win over Man United.  The score doesn't fairly reflect how wide open this match was.  A good watch with the players, not the managers, the focus of the contest.  Except until Conte headed onto the pitch to congratulate his players when the match ended, leaving Mourinho waiting at the tunnel for a handshake. 

By and large the second legs of the MLS conference semi-finals, despite being close, weren't all that scintillating.  In fact, Toronto - Red Bulls was compelling for all the wrong reasons.  A scoreless first half was notable only for its chippiness and yellow cards for Altidore (bad acting) and Kljestan (cheesy mustache).  Further silliness in the tunnel on the way to the locker rooms at the end of the half resulted in both getting straight red cards, meaning both sides would play the second half at 10 a side.  The Red Bulls got one in the second half to make things close; Toronto seemed disinterested in attacking much.  So it ended 2-2 on aggregate and Toronto advanced based on the two away goals in Jersey.

At Yankee Stadium NYCFC nearly pulled off a great comeback, scoring two and hitting the post late.  But 2-0 was not enough to make up the 1-4 deficit left from the first leg and Columbus will advance.  The Yankee Stadium pitch looked silly but at least the footing seemed better than usual.  The last match - Portland vs Houston - might have been the most interesting.  The Timbers scored first to take a 1-0 lead on aggregate but four minutes later Houston tallied; this away goal meant the Dynamo had the advantage.  Portland was likely limited by injuries and couldn't respond.  A late goal for Houston sealed the deal for the Dynamo.

Yeah, I watched just about all of this action, though I didn't check out the Portland-Houston match until Monday morning.  Right, I probably need a life.


Adios Slaven

So quick was Liverpool's response to the West Ham goal,
the bubbles were still in the air as Oxlade-Chamberlain
restored the two goal lead.

Saturday's 1-4 loss at home to Liverpool was the last straw for West Ham ownership and Slaven Bilic
was sacked.  There was hope after Lanzini had brought the Hammers back to 1-2 but the trademark West Ham celebratory bubbles hadn't even hit the ground before Oxlade-Chamberlain restored the two goal lead.  A late goal for the Reds was merely the last nail in the coffin.  Bilic asked several West Ham players what he could have done differently and they bluntly told him that he was not "tough enough" on them and the qualify and intensity of the training session was insufficient.  So in the game of Managerial Musical Chairs, David Moyes found a seat and Bilic is out.  I would expect to see him back.  Wasn't really worried about it but glad that Moyes got the job with all the rumors swirling about West Ham being interested in Rafa Benitez.

I would be remiss if I did not point out a possible turnaround for Everton's season.  Down 0-2 at home to Watford and facing another crippling defeat, the Toffees rallied for an improbable 3-2 victory.  Oumar "Pain" Niasse got things started and Leighton Baines' PK in stoppage time lifted Everton out of the relegation zone.  But wait, there's even more to the story.  Because of significan injuries, there was 12 minutes of stoppage time and in the 100th minute, Watford were awarded a PK.  Except that Tom Cleverely failed to put the shot on frame.  We'll make that this week's YouTubeableMoment 1) because we never said it had to be a great play and 2) it will make Dennis's day, him being a big fan of Cleverely from his Aston Villa days.

With the Man United loss, Man City now has an eight point lead over both the Red Devils and Spurs, which seems like a lot this early in the season; on the other hand, it is early in the season so we won't hand them the title just yet.


Final World Cup Spots Up for Grabs

This weekend is the last international break of the season so no EPL and the MLS conference finals start next week.  Plenty of good stuff to check out between Thursday and next Wednesday.

The two-leg European playoff series include:

Northern Ireland - Switzerland
Croatia - Greece
Sweden - Italy
Denmark - Ireland

There's a few more spots to be decided from Africa and we have the intercontinental playoffs between New Zealand - Peru and Honduras - Australia.  Details on exact times and stations are here.

When that's done, buckle your seat belts as the EPL sides will play a ridiculous crowded schedule between Saturday 11/18 and New Year's Day.  By my count, Newcastle has 11 fixtures in that 45 day period, including three between 12/27 and New Year's Day.  I realize all the clubs face a crowded schedule so I'm not complaining for Newcastle per se but just wondering how is that many matches in a compressed time frame good for the players or the quality of play.

Mediocrity Exposed

Well, Newcastle - Burnley went about as expected.  Two sides with extremely well-organized defenses but not much quality up top.  Burnley got the 1-0 win but this could have easily been 0-0, 1-1 or even 1-0 in favor of the Magpies.  Except close only counts in horseshoes and atom bombs; it's another loss.  You cannot win if you do not score.  Newcastle's four wins have come against the 14th, 16th, 17th and 20th place teams.  This is not a top ten team. They are lower table and without improvements could find themselves dragged into a relegation battle (again).

Picture says it all as Hendrick celebrates goal in 74th
minute while Elliot and LeJeune react

Wonder if we'll see something different than Joselu/Perez up top on Saturday.  Benitez just doesn't seem to trust Mitrovic and I trust Benitez so maybe there's something happening on the training ground.  Still, I'd like to see something different.

Surprisingly, Newcastle is generating transfer news and seems to be hunt for Besiktas striker Cenk Tosun, who does have a pretty good track record of scoring goals.  At £20 million pounds it's hard to believe that this could happen with Ashley trying to sell the club but there are some players Benitez could jettison to generate the cash.  Very positive if true.

Not enough news on the sale of the club to justify a picture of Amanda Staveley. Maybe next week.


Tepid Viewing

A somewhat unsatisfying weekend, at least for the neutral.  Man United - Tottenham wasn't all that great. Spurs were on the toothless side without Kane and Man United didn't generate that many chances either.  That was a nice flick-on from Lukaku to Martial for the game winner in the 81st minute though.  Arsenal spotted Swansea a goal but came back to win 2-1. A stoppage time goal made the West Brom - Man City match look a little closer than it actually was but the 3-2 win keeps the Citizens firmly in first.  Can't remember much of Chelsea's 1-0 win over Bournemouth except that Hazard got his first goal of the season.  Liverpool made short enough work of Huddersfield with a 3-0 win.

I switched from the Liverpool-Huddersfield match to see most of Crystal Palace - West Ham.  Slaven Bilic was looking safe with the Hammers up 2-0 but a stupid PK got the Eagles back into the match at 50 minutes and the rest was highly entertaining.  Zaha rescued a draw with a goal in the 97th minute.   There's just something compelling about matches at the lower levels when EPL survival is at stake. I don't mean to suggest it's high quality football but it is quite watchable.  Somehow, Bilic survives for another weekend. The other surprising match for me was Brighton (& Hove Albion) drawing with Southampton.  Great attacking football that ended 1-1.  Great names on the Siegels Seagulls. Dunk. Gross. Propper.  Bong.  If they weren't so competitive with Newcastle, I'd definitely be on board with them.

So the week ends with Man City at the top with 28 points,  five over Man United and eight ahead of  Tottenham. Chelsea and Arsenal have 19 each, with Chelsea ahead on goal differential.  Newcastle sit in 9th.


The Boring Boring West

Were there two more unwatchable matches last week than the 0-0 draws in the first legs of the Western Conference semi-finals?  The key moment of the Houston-Portland match was the video review that overturned the PK that might have given Houston and 1-0 win.  Vancouver-Seattle didn't even generate that level of excitement.  And what is up with the Houston field?  More divots than a public golf course.  The second leg in Seattle started out with more of the same but the Sounders did manage two goals in the second half and advance to the conference finals.  Portland-Houston return leg is Sunday night.

More interesting viewing in the East.  A tight contest in New Jersey as Toronto got a quick 1-0 lead but the Red Bulls leveled things in first half stoppage time.  A Sebastian Giovinco free kick (this week's YouTubeableMoment) gave Toronto a second road goal and a significant 2-1 lead heading into the second leg.  The possible move of Columbus to Austin provided extra drama as the Crew faced NYCFC in the second semi-final.  Columbus also got a early 1-0 lead but things were still pretty tight in the second half - until Callens got a straight red for an elbow to the face.  Columbus took advantage to get to a 3-0 lead but Villa pinched one back.  Not great but 1-3 heading home with a road goal might have been salvagable.  Except a stoppage time tally restored the three goal advantage.  Having fun with names, it was an Afful goal despite Brilliant defending (you can look it up).


Leaving the Union

So the exodus begins.  The Union declined options on nine players and announced that two more are out of contract.  Details in this article.  Among the casualties are Alberg, Edu, Herbers, Ilsinho, Onyewu, Pontius and Wijnaldum (and maybe Fabinho).  A little surprised about Herbers but apparently that was because his salary will now count against the cap; Stewart may try to resign him at a lower salary.  Stewart wouldn't mind keeping Ilsinho but not at $500k.  These moves (plus the retirement of Brian Carroll) could clear almost $3 million off the payroll.  That would certainly provide the funds for some serious shopping this winter.


Chester Blues

Life on the virtual pitch continues to be good.  We did fail to win for the first time this year when Aston Villa scored in the 93rd minute to snatch a 2-2 draw.  But a gamble to rest key players in the League Cup match against very tough Man City paid off when they got a man sent off early and we coasted to a 3-1 win.  With rested first teamers, we handled Arsenal 5-1.  Undisciplined, my ass.


Something Has To Give

For some reason, instead of spreading the second legs of the conference semi-finals over several days, MLS put one on Thursday night and three on Sunday.  This is on top of EPL deciding to schedule four Sunday matches instead of the usual two.  Even moving the clocks back an hour isn't going to help me.  Here's the full list:

7 am           Tottenham-Crystal Palace (NBCSN)
9:15 am      Man City - Arsenal (NBCSN)
11:00 am    Conte - Mourinho Chelsea - Man United (NBCSN)
11:00 am    Everton-Watford (NBC Gold)
3 pm          Toronto FC - Red Bulls (ESPN)
5 pm          NYCFC - Columbus (ESPN)
7:10 pm     Portland - Houston (FS1)

On paper, Spurs should be walking over Crystal Palace but we like watching Tottenham plus it's been fun following the Eagles' car crash of a season.  The Gunners have recovered from some early stumbles to get up to 5th place but mostly at the expense of mediocre sides; Man City will be a much sterner test.   Hopefully the Chelsea-Man United match will end up being about the players, not the managers.  Maybe skip Everton-Watford though it might be interesting to see if the Toffees can make any progress in turning things around.

Toronto got two away goals and has the upper hand but the Red Bulls do have the potential to pull off the upset.  With Columbus up 4-1 on NYCFC, the second leg of that semi-final might be one to pass on; plus it's at Yankee Stadium, the finest U12 pitch in the country.  At 0-0, the Portland-Houston series has everything to play for. Portland's home goal differential was +20 while Houston's away deficit was -14, which does seem to favor the Timbers, although they are banged up a bit and could be missing some key players.  So I'll be clearing space on the DVR.

And this is after the regular Saturday schedule.  Refereeing in the morning so I'll be on DVR delay for Newcastle - Bournemouth at St. James Park at 11 am on NBCSN.  The Cherries are 19th in the table and have scored just six goals in 10 games.  At worst this should be a 0-0 draw, which is really unacceptable; failure to get all three here suggests maybe relegation is back in the conversation.

Other Saturday contests include Stoke - Leicester at 8:30 on NBCSN (meh), and West Ham hosting Liverpool at 1:30 on NBC (probably worth checking out).  If Bilic didn't get fired after the draw at Crystal Palace, it would seem harsh to sack him if West Ham don't get a result here.  But you never know.


Oh yeah, don't want Michael B on my case again.  Tottenham were absolutely awesome midweek as they thoroughly handled Real Madrid 3-1 at Wembley in Champions League action.  Spurs dominated and advance to the knockout stage. Truly a masterful performance.  I'm not kidding.  Kane was back in the lineup; though he did not score his work rate earned a throw-in that resulted in one goal and his pass to Eriksen set up another.