So Much For Controlling Your Own Destiny

Newcastle lost the first of a series of Champions League six-pointers.  The Union fared better.

It Was An Illusion

The Fillebrown Derby was a great contest until it wasn't.  The first half ended 1-1 though Aston Villa had been the marginally better side.  As the second half unfolded, momentum seemed to be swinging further away from Newcastle but the score remained even until Ian Maatsen's goal at 64 minutes.  The writing was beginning to show on the wall, though some hope of at least a draw remained.  Not so much after goals at 73 and 75 minutes, as the rout was on.

What an own goal looks like - Burn deflects it past Pope
Photograph: Chris Radburn/Reuters

This was always going to be a difficult fixture so the loss isn't all that much of a surprise.  The 4-1 margin is.  It's tempting to point to some unfortunate deflections on two of the goals and say it was one of those days.  Except Aston Villa hit the woodwork at least three other times and xG (2.51-1.08) says there was nothing lucky about the final score.  In other words, this is not a loss to dismiss too lightly.  

There was some discussion about Newcastle looking like the more tired side, which at first didn't make sense because Villa has played two more games than the Magpies since the international break.  Except, the more congested schedule has meant that Emery has had no choice but to rotate his line-up.  Their superb January transfer window allows them to do this with no loss in quality.  Eddie Howe/Jason Tindall sent out the same 11 for the sixth straight match, likely thinking 1) we have six straight wins with this line up so don't mess with success and 2) there was only one mid-week match in that streak so we can probably get away with it. With the spell broken, we may see some changes on Saturday.

Annoying Victories

Man City and Chelsea both snatched wins from the jaws of dropped points.  Everton looked to be ready to take away a hard-fought 0-0 draw with City but surrendered goals at 84 and 92 minutes for an 0-2 loss.  Likewise, Fulham looked good for a result at Craven Cottage, holding a 1-0 lead late but coughed up goals at 83 and 93 minutes for a 1-2 loss to Chelsea.  Thanks guys.  Though it's hard to root against Nottingham Forest, their 2-1 win over Spurs was not exactly helpful to Newcastle either.

Easily the most annoying however was Man City's late 2-1 win over Aston Villa on Tuesday.  It's like the Villans pissed away the benefits of the big win over Newcastle.  Frankly, they didn't look all that good and as the clock ticked towards 94 minutes it was looking like a good deal to slip out of town with a 1-1 draw.  City then proceeded to score on a great cross from Doku to Nunes.  Damn.

But I Didn't Mean to Do It

In the 15th minute of the City-Villa clash,  Ruben Dias made contact with Jacob Ramsey in the penalty area.  You can see the play here.  Craig Pawson was not impressed and waved play on.  The VAR thought this was enough of a mistake that he didn't even wait for the next stoppage of play to send Pawson to the monitor to review his decision.  Looking at it again, Pawson awarded the PK.  Man City (and the announcers) trotted out the defense that Dias has raised his arms, clearly trying to avoid the contact.  That's all well and good, except that Dias still ran into Ramsey.  He had committed to the tackle and by the time he realized it wasn't going to work, it was too late to avoid the contact.  In other words, it's basically the text definition of a careless foul.  At least the guys in the studio got this one right.

That Settles That

Leicester confirmed their return ticket to the Championship (sounds like a good thing when you say it that way) with an 0-1 loss to Liverpool.  The Foxes fate had been sealed weeks ago, this just made the math final.  Also settled is that Wolves will be sticking around for another year, thanks to their 1-0 win over Man United.  

Ipswich, following an 0-4 loss to Arsenal, are down to their last point to drop.  They must win all of their last five while West Ham must lose all of theirs.  

Severance In Real Life

Michael B told me about a podcast that suggested Spurs were a football version of Severance.  They play solid football in their Europa Cup matches (the innie Spurs) but they seem to forget how to play like that as soon as they cross back over into the EPL (the outie Spurs).  Jeff H wants to laugh at this but realizes that it applies to Man United as well.  

Cheeky Chip

A late goal from Crystal Palace's Jean-Philippe Mateta, this week's YouTubeableMoment, is the reason that Liverpool only need a draw against Spurs to clinch the EPL title on Sunday.  

Big Win for the Union?

If I had to rely only on the stats, I would expect to see a 1-1 final between the Union and Atlanta.  The Union had more shots on target (4/3) while Atlanta had better possession (59/41), shots (13/10) and xG (1.5/1.3); all the margins are small so it reads like a draw.  The scoreboard said 3-0 Union.  The final is all the more remarkable given the U played a man down from 56 minutes on after Lukic got a second yellow.  Atlanta have struggled so far this year but the Union hadn't been tearing it up lately either.  I'm ready to upgrade this team from "will be lucky to make the playoffs" to "in the mix for a playoff spot." 

What'd You Say Sonny?

BFS Artistic Director Laura O sends along this alternative version of age group soccer.  The tournament may be U-90 but the fields look like U-10.  

Mixed Bag

In the next week we have FA Cup semis, EPL and first leg of all three European competition semis.

For the FA Cup, Crystal Palace will face Aston Villa on Saturday at 12:15 while Nottingham Forest will take on Man City at 11:30 on Sunday.  Both matches are at Wembley Stadium and are on ESPN.  Villa and City look like prohibitive favorites but I'm seeing many predictions that suggest both matches will go to extra time.

The truncated EPL schedule is not all that great.  Action starts at 7:30 Saturday morning with Chelsea hosting Everton; hoping for an upset there but unlikely the Toffees will come through.  Four choices at 10 am.  We'd being going with Newcastle vs Ipswich but we'll be at the Penn Relays, likely getting rained on.  The other choices are Wolves-Leicester, Brighton-West Ham, and Southampton Fulham.  I guess Brighton and Fulham have an outside shot at Europe so maybe they'll be motivated.  Sunday has Bournemouth - Man United at 9 and Liverpool - Spurs at 11:30.  In the latter, Liverpool will be looking to clinch the EPL title.  There's an extra weekday game on Thursday with Nottingham hosting Brentford; that looks like the most competitive fixture of the match week.

Four EPL sides will be in the semi-final action in Europe.  In the Champions League, Arsenal will host PSG on Tuesday.  The other semi is Inter - Barcelona on Wednesday.  Three clubs in action at 3 pm on Thursday.  Man United takes on Athletic Club, Spurs will host Bodo/Glimt and Chelsea face Djurgarden.

Note that next week will be more of the same - EPL plus European semi-finals.