Denouement

denouement

noun [ C ]

US 

 /deɪˈnuː.mɑ̃ː/ UK 

 /deɪˈnuː.mɒ̃/

Add to word list 

the end of a story, in which everything is explained, or the end result of a situation

Also, a wingback for the French national team...

We approach the final weekend of EPL action with the title and some European berths still up for grabs.  Not a particularly satisfying set of results for Newcastle or the Union.

Whither Europe?

Looks like Amrabat got Gordon's achilles heel; he had a torn sock as
 proof.  Not called on field and VAR didn't intervene.  Looks
 questionable but ESPN didn't even include it their list of this week's
 controversial VAR decisions

I guess Brighton felt they still had something to play for and gave Newcastle all they could handle at home.  Damn them.  That one was a 1-1 draw, or two dropped points the Magpies really couldn't afford.  They followed that with a 3-2 loss at Old Trafford, with Man United looking a little more lively with Bruno Fernandes back in the lineup.  Newcastle had the better xG in both matches, which is another way of saying their finishing let them down a little.  

They go into the final weekend down three points to Chelsea but with a better goal differential and level with Man United but with a much better goal differential.  To get 6th, Chelsea would have to lose at home to Bournemouth while Newcastle would need to win at Brentford.  In other words, Europa League is a real long shot now.  For 7th, the Magpies need only match Man United's result on the road against Brighton.   But wait, 7th doesn't guarantee a spot in the Europa Conference League because Man United could still win the FA Cup.  That would mean 7th isn't enough for Europe this year.

Dennis asks if I even want them to qualify for Europa Conference League.  I think I do as long as Newcastle use it to mix in the younger guys.

Closure on Some Fronts

A brace for Haaland vs Spurs sews up scoring title
for Haaland (photo AP)

Man City's win over Fulham ended Liverpool's slim shot at the EPL title.  Aston Villa's stirring
comeback draw against Liverpool (see below) paired with Spurs' loss to Man City means the Villans will be in the Champions League for the first time.   The title chase is not settled as Arsenal beat Man United 1-0 and Man City racked up two wins - 4-0 over Fulham and 2-0 over Spurs.  A curious aspect of the Spurs-City contest was the apparent reluctance of Tottenham fans to support their side out of fear that a win would improve Arsenal's chances of winning the title.  Really?  

At the other end of the table, Burnley's loss to Spurs sealed the Clarets' fate; they are returning to the Championship division.  Luton Town lost to West Ham, which in all likelihood means they are going down as well.

Chelsea won twice, one of those wins a come-from-behind 3-2 victory over Nottingham Forest.  Jackson's late goal meant Forest didn't clinch safety from relegation and Newcastle dropped to seventh. Thanks.  It did boost Chelsea's chances for Europa League.

Duran Duran or There Is No Crying In Football

Though there would be other ways to clinch the Champions League berth, a result for Aston Villa at home to Liverpool was the quickest and safest.  The day did not start well as Martinez gave up an own goal in the second minute.  Tielemans leveled it quickly but Liverpool got two more and took a 3-1 lead into the late stages.  Enter Jhon Duran in the 79th minute.  He scores in the 83rd minute and again in the 85th minute.  The video is here as this week's YouTubeableMoments.  Note the celebration by Tom Hanks, Villa's most famous fan second most famous fan (after Dennis) third most famous fan (after Dennis and Prince William).  Certainly there is no crying after a comeback like that, which puts Aston Villa into the Champions League for the first time (they did play in some of the predecessor competitions).  

VAR Under Review

Certainly VAR has gotten its share of attention this year.  Now, Wolves have introduced a motion to scrap it in the EPL.  The story is here.  Probably won't pass as it will need 14 votes to be adopted.

I"ve been looking at some of the data and I'm not sure exactly what the definitions are about benefiting or being victimized by VAR.  For example, is the data based only on situations where VAR overruled the onfield official?  Or does it also include mistakes where VAR should have overruled the onfield referee but didn't.  There could be big differences in who gained or lost from VAR based on those distinctions.  Until I get those kinds of questions straightened out, I'm going to hold off posting a table I've been working on.  Stay tuned.  

Union Drop Six at Home and Suffer Pitch Invasion

MoM - Mammal of the Match
Topps wasted no time in pouncing on this

No good news from Subaru Park as the Union lost 2-3 on Saturday to Orlando and NYCFC 1-2 on Wednesday.  They are now a shocking 1-1-4 at home and have lost four consecutive at the once friendly confines along the Delaware.  I didn't see or follow Saturday night's match and Wednesday I listened on WPEN so I don't have a lot to work with.  I will say it sounded like the Union just didn't convert their chances on Tuesday.  

Perhaps it's a touch indicative of the situation but the biggest news from Subaru Park was the pitch invasion by a wayward raccoon.  The uncut version is here.  Dave Leno on the radio described it with the same energy as he calls a game - that is full tilt (that audio is (here).  Everyone looked to be having a good time with it, except Jim Curtin and the Union players.  Down 0-1 at the time, that's understandable.

They are now 9th in the table.  

What's Left?

Well the title is still on the line, though there are only two scenarios in which Arsenal win.  The Gunners have to beat Everton at home while City must lose or draw at home against West Ham.  Man City have not been a juggernaut lately so maybe a draw in David Moyes' final match with West Ham is not impossible.  

Fifth through seventh are still unsettled.  A Spurs' win or draw at Sheffield United is enough for them to take 5th and sure spot in the Europe League.  A Spurs' loss coupled with a Chelsea win would give the spot to the Blues.  Sixth isn't out of the question for Newcastle but it requires a Chelsea loss and a Magpie win.  Practically speaking, Man United have no shot at 6th because their goal differential sucks but they could grab 7th from Newcastle with a better result against Brighton than Newcastle get at Brentford.

For the last relegation spot, Luton Town 1) need to beat Fulham 2) need Nottingham Forest to lose at Burnley 3) need to erase a 12 goal deficit in their goal differential compared to Nottingham Forest.  The first two aren't out of the question but the last one looks insurmountable.  

As a reminder, all the matches are Sunday at 11 am.  NBC will have City v West Ham, USA got Arsenal v Everton.  CNBC got Brighton - Man United while the Golf Channel will air Chelsea - Bournemouth.  The rest are on Peacock.

The Union are in New England Saturday night at 7:30 on "free" Apple.  Actually we'll probably miss that one too as Dennis and his Sportif Allentown will be defending their title in the Canadian American Friendship tournament.  

Distracted Viewing

Caught a surprising number of matches despite a busy weekend.  In truth, much of it was distracted viewing.  For example, I watched the end of Liverpool-Spurs while doing initial set up for the concert.

Routs

Distracted viewing works better when the match is a blowout and you'd have to say that seven of the ten matches were not close.  Happily, one of those was Newcastle's 4-1 win over Burnley.  It all seemed pretty easy.  Heck, even Sean Longstaff scored.  The window is slowing closing on Burnley's time in the top tier.

Actually it was four; Haaland had a good day
Photo: Richard Sellers/PA via AP

Chelsea flattened West Ham 5-0, ending the latter's hopes for Europe next year and probably ensuring that David Moyes will not be managing the Hammers next year.  In fact, later in the week, West Ham announced that Moyes will "leaving next year."  I guess technically that's not an in-season sack but it's sure close.    Crystal Palace put a dent in Man United's plans for Europe with a 4-0 win at Selhurst Park.  At this point you have to wonder if even winning the FA Cup will save ten Hag.  Liverpool made hash of Tottenham in a 4-2 win that was nowhere near as tight as that scoreline suggests.  Not a surprise but Man City blew past Wolves in a 5-1 final.  Haaland had four in that one, likely sealing another scoring title for him.   At a measly 3-0, we can't call Arsenal's win over Bournemouth a blow out.  It was more of slow and steady outing in which the Gunners did just what they needed to.

Relegation Watch

Down at the bottom, Nottingham Forest had their turn with Sheffield United and got a 3-1 win.  Luton Town managed just one point against Everton and as we noted above, Burnley took it on the chin.  Forest are now up three on Luton Town and five on Burnley.  Big advantage with just two to play.

What If They Had A Match and No One Played?

As we mentioned last week, nothing was at stake in the Brentford - Fulham match and both sides played like it.  This was a 0-0 draw with a total of six shots on goal.  

Tired Legs?

Injuries and a deep run into the Europa Conference League looked to have finally taken a toll on Aston Villa.  They fell at home last week to Olympiacos, then struggled at Brighton on Sunday, losing 1-0.  They managed just two shots and just one on goal.  The sting of that one was probably lessened a touch when Tottenham lost later in the day, meaning they maintained their seven point lead over Spurs.  The Villans looked a bit more lively against Olympiacos in the second leg of that semi-final on Thursday but fell 2-0 in that one too, losing the tie 6-2 in aggregate.  Though they haven't clinched it yet, they do still look like a good bet for fourth and the Champions League spot for next year.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Steve: Is one of the Olympiacos defenders named Marinara?

Dennis: No, it's Retsos.

Now You Raise the Flag?

We have written in the past about the directive to assistant referees to keep the flag down for offside if they feel it is a close call.  Let the play continue and if a goal results, the VAR can always review.  We are generally okay with this policy but feel that there are times when the ARs are too cautious.

Given the directive, we were stunned by two aspects of the offside call against Bayern Munich in stoppage time of their semi-final against Real Madrid.  Bayern had appeared to score the equalizing goal but the play was called offside.  You can see the play here.  First, have you seen a play that better fits the situation where the AR should keep the flag down and let the play run?  Textbook tight call in a crucial situation.  But second, and more importantly, referee Marciniak blew the whistle when he saw the AR's flag go up.  That meant that VAR could not intervene.  ESPN provides a good break down of the issues here.  As noted in the article, we will never know whether he was offside.  Several sources are trotting out pictures that claim one or the other but those are not reliable compared to the semi-automated process used in CL matches.

So Real Madrid advance after scoring two late goals to come from behind.  They will face Dortmund, who moved past PSG 2-0 on aggregate, in the final.

A Closet Full of Ties

Missed another Union match, this one a 2-2 draw away to DC United.  On the one hand, it's another two points dropped.  On the other, they rallied once again from a 0-2 deficit with goals from Bedoya and McGlynn.  The latter's laser strike in the 79th minutes is this week's YouTubeableMoment.

While we were keeping DC United at bay, Charlotte were slipping past us with a 2-0 win over Portland.  The bigger issues may be social media posts by Blake and Martinez.  Blake's comment was "When you are no longer happy it's time."  Kind of vague but when coupled with earlier comments about ownership's lack of ambition, somewhat unsettling.  Martinez made a post that suggested he was less than pleased about being subbed off in the Seattle match.  He took down the post but not before people noticed it.  

Football Manager/Peacock Crossover Event?

Forest Green defender Football Manager
Charlton defender in real life

While rewatching Parks and Rec on Peacock we caught the trailer for a new show Love Undercover.  The show's premise:

In the hot new Peacock Original dating show Love Undercover, five international soccer superstars come to L.A. on a secret quest for the one. The men take on fake, everyday identities and try to win over a group of unsuspecting women who have no knowledge of their outrageous fame and wealth, with finding true love as their #1 goal. So who are these men, really? Take a look!

Sounds like a can't miss hit.  Sure.  We mention it only because one of the five players is Lloyd Jones, who has been an incredibly reliable center back for my Football Manager Forest Green side.  He's in his fifth season with Forest Green, one of the few who's been on the roster all through our journey from League Two to the Premier League.  His ratings are consistently over 7.0.  His career in reality hasn't been quite as successful and I'm not sure I would call him an "international superstar."  He currently plays in League One.  

 

Not Much Time Left

More matches with no implications this weekend and not all the ones that matter are intriguing.  Choose wisely.

Arsenal will be hoping the same Man United that showed up for the 0-4 pasting against Crystal Palace is on the pitch at Old Trafford on Sunday at 11:30.  Man City have a much easier task, taking on Fulham at Craven Cottage.  Note that although Arsenal still lead by a point, Man City have a game in hand.  City have Spurs on Tuesday and West Ham on the final Sunday.  Arsenal will face Everton on the final Sunday.

We are interested in the Aston Villa Liverpool contest on Monday at 3 pm.  A Villa win would clinch 4th place and the CL berth while simultaneously ending Liverpool's title chances.  Newcastle cannot clinch a spot in Europe this weekend but a win at home versus Brighton would be a big help.

The right (or wrong depending on your perspective) set of results could end the relegation battle.  Should Nottingham Forest beat Chelsea they will essentially be safe from relegation given their massive goal differential advantage over Luton Town.  The same holds true for Luton Town - a loss against West Ham will all but confirm their ticket back to the Championship.  As for Burnley, even an unlikely win at Spurs is probably not going to be enough to save them either.

You can skip Bournemouth - Brentford and Wolves - Crystal Palace and Everton - Sheffield United.

Besides the City-Spurs contest, there are two other midweek fixtures involving teams still in the hunt for Europe.  On Wednesday, Newcastle will face Man United at Old Trafford and Chelsea travel to Brighton to face the Seagulls. 

We will miss yet another Union match as they will take on Orlando at 7:30 at Subaru Park.  It's on MLS Season Pass.

Better Than Last Week

Except for the Union, a pretty good set of results for the weekend.

The Magic Elixir

There truly is no better medicine for what ails an EPL team than playing Sheffield United.  Poor sequence of results?  Front line in a scoring drought?  Get yourself a fixture with the Blades and soon you'll be feeling like a million bucks or pounds or euros or whatever currency they use in England.

Isak got two more at home and is just two behind Haaland
in the race for the Golden Boot (Photo:Getty Images)

Newcastle were the latest to benefit from that gift of the schedule makers.  Yeah, they gave up the first goal, still looked a bit listless and the score was 1-1 at halftime.  For some unknown reason, I remained optimistic, thinkin they were going to be just fine.  And indeed they were, scoring four second half goals for an easy 5-1 win.  That gives them 13-1 aggregate score over the two contests with Sheffield United this year.  

Results elsewhere were uniformly helpful.  Man United could only draw 1-1 with Burnley, at home no less, so we gained two points on them.  West Ham surprising grabbed a point against Liverpool but it still means they dropped two on Newcastle.  Chelsea also drew so we put another two points between the Blues and us.  Brighton lost and are now nine points back.  The flip side of that is Bournemouth are now just five points back.  Still, after the loss to Palace, this week put Europe back on the agenda.

Fates Were Sealed

The weekend's results also settled some things, mostly in the relegation battle.  Sheffield United's loss to Newcastle means they are going back down to the Championship Division.  Everyone above Nottingman Forest are now guaranteed to stay up (looking mostly at you Everton).  So the relegation fight is now between Nottingham Forest, Luton Town and Burnley.  

Aston Villa cannot win the title but can also finish no worse than fifth.  Sunday was St. Totteringham's Day, as for the second straight year, Tottenham will finish behind Arsenal.  In other news, Michael B announced he no longer follows the EPL.  Man United will finish no higher than 5th.  Everyone from 13th on down is out of Europe, as we now know that Italy and Germany will get the additional Champions League berths for next year.

[Post publication I watched Chelsea's 2-0 win over Tottenham.  That helped Villa's chances for fourth but did put the Blues just two points behind Newcastle.]

VAR Fainting Couch Is Getting Crowded Again

Oh FFS. In the 95th minute against Aston Villa, Chelsea had looked to score the game winner, completing an improbable comeback from 0-2 down.   You can see the play here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The announcers knew it was a foul.  I think everybody not connected with Chelsea knew it was a foul.  Apparently referee Craig Pawson did not.  VAR Chris Cavanaugh sent Pawson to the monitor, who needed little time to see his error.  No goal and the match ends in a draw.

Cue the outrage.  Check out this from Pochettino:

"Me and you and everyone in the stadium watching the game, they didn't see a foul on the pitch and then VAR changed the decision of the referee. For me that was a normal challenge. The decision was there and that's it," Pochettino told broadcaster TNT following the 2-2 draw.

"For me, it damaged a little bit the Premier League and English [football]. If we want to be the best league in the world it should be protecting the spectacle and the decision ... [it] damaged myself, damaged my team, my players, the fans," he added.

Uh, Poch, your argument is damaged somewhat by the fact that both announcers called it a foul the moment it happened.  In their weekly review of VAR decisions (available here), ESPN sees it as pretty cut and dried too; 

Yet it's hard to see how the VAR could ignore this level of contact, and it should have been given on field by referee Craig Pawson. Even though he had a clear view of the incident, his judgement was still incorrect -- so this isn't re-refereeing the game.

Chelsea would not have been in that situation in the first place had they taken advantage of their scoring opportunities (looking at you Nicholas Jackson).  For the year, Chelsea have the 5th highest negative differential between actual goals and xG.  Work on finishing not whining.

Nottingham Forest Complain Again

After their 0-2 loss at home to Man City, Forest management noted that they had warned PGMOL, that the fourth official assigned to the match - Tom Bramall - had once visited Manchester and said "he had a real good time."  In comments after the match on X, Forest officials said "we warned you this was a problem", noting the Bramall had caused Forest striker Chris Wood to miss two clear cut scoring chances. 

Some or all of the above may not be true.

Union No Longer Unbeaten

So apparently my not watching the Union has nothing to do with their performance.  I missed both Saturday and Tuesday and they lost both.  Saturday was a 1-2 loss to Real Salt Lake in which the U surrendered the winning goal in the 89th minute.  On Tuesday, they fell behind Seattle 0-3 in the first half.  They rallied with two in the second half but could not get the equalizer.  

 So now the U sit seventh, although they do have a game in hand.  

Limited Viewing

Going to be a tough weekend as I will be in Lewisburg for a track team reunion Thursday through Saturday, then recording a concert in Aston on Sunday. Hoping I can get to see one or two matches on replay after everybody's gone to bed.

Not that the fixtures are all that enticing but there is some good stuff.  Liverpool vs Tottenham at 11:30 on Sunday looks to be the best.  Nottingham Forest get to play Sheffield United, a great chance for three points; that's Saturday at 10 am on USA.  Chelsea -West Ham at 9 on Sunday has implications for the European spots.

The title contenders have what look like winnable matches - Arsenal host Bournemouth (7:30 Saturday on USA) and Man City have Wolves at home (the NBC feature match at 12:30 on Saturday).

Newcastle have a great chance to solidify their hopes for Europe as they play Burnley (10 am Saturday on Peacock).  Similarly, Aston Villa can tighten their hold on 4th as they travel to face Brighton on Sunday at 9.

The weekend is bookended with a Friday match between Luton and Everton and a Monday contest between Crystal Palace and Man United.  In the one match with no implications, Brentford play Fulham at 10 am Saturday.

Champions League semi-final second legs are mid-week with all to play for.  PSG host Dortmund on Tuesday, trailing 0-1.  Bayern are at Real Madrid on Wednesday with the score all even at 2-2.  Aston Villa, after a poor effort on Thursday against Olympiacos, are looking at 4-2 deficit for the second leg of that Europa Conference League semi. 

The Union have an early six-pointer against 8th place DC United.  That's at 7:30 Saturday on "free" Apple.

Sigh, all this soccer but limited opportunities to watch.

Never Mind About Those Passports

Newcastle pissed away weeks of good work with an awful 90 minutes at Selhurst Park.   Coventry nearly made FA Cup history.  Nottingham Forest set a new sour record for sour grapes.

Europe? Europe? (apologies to Jim Mora)

After a run of strong performances, Newcastle laid an egg in an 2-0 loss to Crystal Palace.  The Magpies were outplayed in every phase of the game.  Notably, they managed just two tepid shots on goal, both very late in the contest.  Palace were physically all over Newcastle, playing like a side that wanted to put a few miles between themselves and relegation.  I can't remember so many passes being smothered at the source.  What is difficult to understand is that this was the same lineup and formation that dismantled Tottenham 4-0 just 10 days ago.  

Europe may not be totally gone but another performance like that one and it is.

Ya Done Good, Bruno

We do pick on Bruno Guimaraes a lot here but we did fail to note that after picking up his 9th yellow card on January 13th, he went 11 matches without picking up a 10th.  The importance of that, of course, is that another yellow in any of those contests would have meant a two game suspension.  Apparently he can exercise self-control

No Quad Triple Double For You

What looked like a possible big haul of trophies for Liverpool has evaporated in a spring of disappointment.  The FA Cup hopes were dashed by Man United.  A possible Europa League championship went bye-bye after a terrible home performance against Atalanta.  And now the EPL title seems to be a long shot after losses to Crystal Palace and more recently to Everton.  Three points down with four games to play doesn't sound outrageous except for the way they have been playing in the last few weeks.

The Sourest of Sour Grapes

Everybody complains about refereeing but Nottingham Forest took it to a new low this week.  To set the scene, Forest were playing Everton on Saturday.  Prior to the match the standings had Everton 16th with 27 points, Forest 17th with 26 and Luton Town 18th with 25.

The fun actually started mid-week, as Nottingham warning the PGMOL that the VAR for the match - Stuart Attwell - was a supporter of relegation rival Luton and that he shouldn't be assigned to the game.  Fuel was added to the fire when there were three incidents in the match where no penalty was called on the pitch and VAR declined to send match referee Anthony Taylor to the monitor.  This of course amplified the outrage, with Nottingham officials now yelling "we told you so and look what happened."  Details can be had here from ESPN in their weekly review of VAR.

Much to unpack here.  First, I haven't seen anybody point out that Everton, at least at the time, was also a relegation rival with Luton.  What was Stuart Attwell's play here?  Manipulate the calls to ensure a draw so neither team got three points?  I guess with Everton two points ahead and Forest only one point ahead, maybe it was to ensure a Everton win.  Of course, I kid on all points.  

As to the three calls themselves, only one complaint holds any water.  It's not clear that Reyna was even fouled so the "clear and obvious error" threshold wasn't met.  On the Young handling, I thought proximity, the fact that Young had just arrived to that position (as in his arms would still be moving) and that his arm was barely at 45 degrees and somewhat behind his body ruled out VAR intervention as well.  The possible foul on Hudson-Odoi?  Taylor signalled that he thought Young had gotten the ball.  The replay suggested he did not.  In that situation, I would think Attwell should ask Taylor what he saw and if he says Young got the ball, then Attwell needs to send him to the monitor.  Okay, bad call there.

Boo effing hoo.  Wasn't the first time and it won't be the last time. The ESPN article points out that Forest are a net beneficiary this year of bad calls.  Fortunately, Forest's handling of this has drawn near universal condemnation and most are expected fines to be levied.   Also, note in the ESPN article that there is occasionally attention to the issue of referees having a link to certain clubs.  Dennis points out that it is virtually impossible that an English referee didn't grow up supporting a team.  But this much focus seems to be a rare circumstance.

The One That Got Away

The Saturday FA Cup semifinal - a 1-0 win for Man City over Chelsea - did little to add to the legacy of the magic of the competition.  On the other hand, Sunday's semi between Coventry and Man United did. Reporting the result, a 3-3 draw in which Man United advanced on PKs, hardly does the the match justice.  

Coventry were this close to an FA Cup Final

Coventry, who sit 8th in the Championship (i.e. nominally 28th ranked in English football) were serious underdogs to Man United, who at the time were 7th in the first tier.  And the match proceeded much as you would expect, with United slowly building a 3-0 lead.  Then, somehow, it wasn't a done deal.  Coventry scored in the 71st minute, then again in the the 79th minute.  They completed the improbable comeback with a PK in the 95th minute.  Okay, on to extra time, where United would surely get their act together and dispatch this pesky second tier side.  Except that didn't happen.  And please don't call me Shirley.  In the 121st minute, Coventry scored on great counter attack.  The whole English football world, excepting Man United fans, went nuts.  Except the goal did not withstand VAR review, as Wright was adjudged to be marginally offside.  We make the play this week's YouTubeableMoment.

So it was on to PKs.  Rasmus Hojlund with kick to make the final 4-2 on PKs.  As soon as struck it, Hojlund raced to the stands, celebrating and no doubt expecting he would soon be mobbed by his teammates.  He might still be waiting.  Likely embarrassed that the match had even gotten to that point, the Man United players were slinking towards the sideline.  

Coventry - Man City would probably have been a terrible final but I doubt their fans would care.  Another Manchester derby may not be that much better, unless maybe United feel like they're trying to save ten Hag's job.  

Yes, That Was Vaseline

Watching a match a few weeks, Dennis and I both saw Man United keeper Andre Onana smear what looked like Vaseline on his goalie gloves.  Made no sense to either of us.  It's a lubricant.  Wouldn't it make the ball harder to hold on to?

BFS Artistic Director Laura O saw an article in The Athletic confirming that is was indeed Vaseline. The key paragraph:

 In the months since, I’ve done some research and learned the intricacies of why it’s effective. My understanding is that latex is a porous material, so over time, when the palm of the glove breaks down, it allows dirt and water to flood the latex and you end up losing grip. What Vaseline does is moisturise the latex of the gloves while also acting as a repellent to water and grime from covering the glove, allowing the latex to do the job it’s designed to do: grip the ball.

Better living through science.

And More Games

We have a full slate for the weekend, a random midweek London derby and European semi finals. At this point, it's difficult to have an EPL game that doesn't have implications for the league title, spots in next year's European competitions or relegation.  Wait, looks like Fulham - Crystal Palace might qualify; they both look safe from relegation and Europe.  Too bad because that might be the most competitive match of the weekend.  See, just because the game has "implications" doesn't mean it's going to be a good one.  

Clerking the Penn Relays on Saturday so might not get to much of the action.  A 7:30 match wtih West Ham vs Liverpool (USA).  Four at 10.  We'd be taking in Newcastle Sheffield United if we were home.  Hark to pick a great choice for the neutral.  Wolves - Luton Town? Man United - Burnley.  Feature 12:30 match is 15th place Brentford vs 16th place Everton.  There's a Saturday afternoon special with Aston Villa hosting Chelsea.  Actually that might be the best of the day.

North London derby with Tottenham hosting Arsenal 9 am Sunday. That one should be good as both sides have a lot to play for.  There's also Bournemouth Brighton.  At 11:30 Nottingham Forest might really have something to complain about as they host Man City.  Thern there's another random Thursday London derby between Chelsea - Spurs.

Champions League and all the other Europe stuff is back.  Tuesday is Bayern Real Madrid and Wednesday is Dortmund PSG.  On Thursday Aston Villa are hosts for the first leg of their ECL semi with Olympiacos.

And there's a Union match at Subaru Park vs Real Salt Lake at 7:30 Saturday.  It's behind the double pay wall of Apple TV plus MLS Season Pass.  Maybe radio again for me.

Again, I know I missed stuff but finals must be graded.

Don't Let the Passports Expire

Good results for the BFS home sides paired with helpful outcomes in other matches made for a good weekend.

Europe is Not Out of the Question

Isak makes it 3-0

Newcastle asserted themselves early and often against Spurs and were rewarded with a 4-0 win that can basically be taken at face value.  You know it's going well when they're still showing the replay of the first goal while your team is scoring again.  As seen in this week's YouTubeableMoment, they cut away from the replay barely in time to get back to live action to see Gordon bearing down on Vicario for the second goal.

I will confess that I was skeptical about Howe's decision to go with a back five, especially as it meant Dan Burn would be covering Brandon Johnson, which is about like matching me up with Usain Bolt.  To be fair, the wingbacks in the formation were Jacob Murphy and Elliot Anderson, both of whom can spark the offense.  In fact, the stats reveal how much a counterattacking master class this was; with only 27% of possession, the Magpies still outshot Spurs 18-11 and shots on target were 5-2.

Matched up with Man United's 2-2 draw with Bournemouth and West Ham's 0-2 loss to Fulham, Newcastle finished the weekend in 6th, which would mean a Europa League berth.  Obviously a long way to go but a spot in Europe is definitely in play.  

In other news, Michael B announced he no longer follows the EPL.

City Again?

Sigh.  While Man City were taking care of business with a 5-1 win over Luton Town, Liverpool and Arsenal were dropping points.  Liverpool looked lost falling 0-1 at home to Crystal Palace. Their xG was 2.74; I vaguely remember some good saves from Dean Henderson but I think a big part of this was poor finishing.  As for Arsenal, who fell to Aston Villa, astute readers might recall that I said the Villa side is rarely overmatched against any team and that the match could be fun.  Indeed it was - at least for Villa fans.  I didn't see the match and xG suggests Arsenal might have merited a draw.  Regardless, the score still reads 2-0 favor Villa.

So, City now have a two point lead and with both Arsenal and Liverpool looking shaky, this thing might be over.

You Know It's Not Your Night Year When...

You give up an own goal like this.  Burnley were about 15 minutes from grabbing all three points in a home match.  Instead, they only get one and are still six points from safety.

Or maybe when a fight breaks out over who's going to take the PK as happened during Chelsea's mauling of Everton.  Seen here, the incident maybe offers some explanation for Chelsea's disappointing season.

Mass Exit?

The EPL entered the quarterfinals of the three European competitions with five sides still alive.  When the dust settled, all but one were gone.  Man City gave up an early goal to Real Madrid, spent the rest of the match dominating play, got a late goal to send it to extra time but eventually lost on PKs.  City owned the stat sheet with shots 33-8,  shots on target 9-3 and corners 18-1; xG was closer, at 2.74-1.37.  No matter, they are done.  Arsenal were surprisingly tepid despite entering the second leg even with Bayern at 2-2.  The Gunners offered little in the way of offense and fell 1-0.  

Europa League was more of the same.  Liverpool only managed one goal against Atalanta and departed 1-3 on aggregate.  West Ham were briefly within a goal of Leverkusen but eventually went down 1-3 on aggregate.

Now the lone EPL representative is Aston Villa.  Frankly, they did not distinguish themselves against LOSC, giving up their first leg one goal lead and falling behind 3-2 on aggregate.  Only an 87th minute goal from Matty Cash got them to extra time and a PK shootout.  Emi Martinez was there to deny the French again as he saved two PKs and Villa advanced 4-3.

Did You Know?

Martinez in trouble with the ref - who would have guessed?

During the penalty shoot-out between Aston Villa and LOSC, Emi Martinez got a yellow because the referee felt he was taunting the home fans (you're shocked right?).  Martinez had been booked earlier for time wasting.  But he was not sent off because of the little-known clause in Law 10 which states:

warnings and cautions issued to players and team officials during the match are not carried forward into penalties (penalty shoot-out).

Very pleased that I knew that rule. 

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Steve (upon switching over to Man City match for extra time): Where's Haaland?

Dennis: Northeast of Belgium

Better If I Don't Follow?

Harriel launches the throw that will turn into the equalizer
This is NOT a foul throw-in as his lead foot is still touching the line
Note that the AR is watching

For the second straight week, I was unable to take in the Union match and for the second straight week, they brought home an unexpected result.  Down 2-0 to Atlanta at their Little Shop of Horrors called Mercedes-Benz Stadium, they got goals in rapid succession from Uhre and Wagner.  Check out the equalizer here, a set-piece from a throw-in.  They even put another in the net only to see it ruled out for offside.  The stats say maybe a little lucky here but not by much; xG was 2.0-1.4 favor Atlanta. Still undefeated, the Union are in 3rd with a game in hand on second place Red Bulls and two games in hand on first place Miami.  Gee, maybe I should be watching them?

It's Apple's Fault

Late in the match with Atlanta, Uhre put a shot past Guzan for what would have been a 3-2 lead. On the field, Kathryn Nesbitt signaled offside. You can see the play here, though you have to fast forward to 5:23.  Since there was a goal it did go to VAR.  Except they have no tools to seriously review the call.  All they had was a camera angle that wasn't lined up with the last defender; in other words it was inconclusive so the call stood.  If you do go to the video, you'll see Nesbitt sprinting down the touchline, tracking with the next-to-last defender.  In other words, she was in position to make the call.  Nesbitt is also highly experienced, including covering some World Cup matches.  Thus, as the MLS handles offside and VAR, hard to argue with the call.

But that does beg the question as to whether MLS can do better on this issue.  Their practice stands in stark contrast to the fully automated systems in the major competitions or the semi-automated system used by the EPL (you know the blue, green and red lines?).  These systems assess the play down to the defender's toe nails, although some of the accuracy is phony because it depends on a somewhat subjective decision as to the exact moment the ball was struck.  Even with that weakness, I prefer the automated systems but understand that some feel it's overkill.

But wait, there is another option.  Jonathan Tannenwald notes:

If you really want to complain about something, take note that MLS runs into this problem too often. Curtin spent a heap of time talking about it on Sunday, but he was right on one point: Apple has the money to pay for extra cameras closer to the end line to fix the problem. 

It wouldn’t be “a 10-dollar camera” as Curtin jokingly claimed — but it can be done. And if it also takes a little construction work at some stadiums to install more camera decks, so be it.

I knew that somehow Apple was part of the problem.  We've said it more than once on this blog; when you watch an Apple/MLS broadcast you can't help but notice that the camera coverage simply isn't as good as EPL or other leagues.  

FA Cup Weekend

The weekend schedule is a little abbreviated but they make up for it with some weekday matches.  As for the FA Cup, Man City will play Chelsea at 12:30 on Saturday while Man United will play Coventry at 10:30 on Sunday.  Hmm, one of these is not like the others.  Those matches are on ESPN+.

Saturday is light on EPL action but does have a relegation special - Sheffield United hosting Burnley at 10 am on Peacock.  The TV game at 10 am on USA is Luton Town versus Brentford, which is sort of relegation related, though Brentford gave themselves some breathing room with a win last weekend over Sheffield United.  After the FA Cup match, you can watch Wolves-Arsenal at 2:30 on USA.

Sunday has a decent card, starting off with Everton-Nottingham Forest at 8:30 on USA.  They are 16th and 17th in the table, still way too close to the drop zone.  There are also games at 10 and 11:30, which sharp-eyed readers will note conflict with the FA Cup semi at 10:30.  Seems like an MLS move to me.

Six mid-week matches spread out over Tuesday - Thursday.  The Arsenal-Chelsea London derby on Tuesday (on USA) isn't as compelling as usual but does offer the Blues a chance to play spoiler in the title race.  Four more on Wednesday.  Since you never know with a derby, neutrals might do best with Everton - Liverpool.  We'll be taking in Crystal Palace - Newcastle; surprisingly that's the USA choice over the Merseyside Derby.  Aston Villa also face Bournemouth at the same time, as will Man United and Sheffield United.  Thursday has Brighton - Man City.  I didn't say they were all exciting matchups.

The Union are off this week so I won't have a chance to miss them.  

Is This Not Why You Are Here?

apologies to Maximus

Improbably road wins for Newcastle and the Union.  Entertaining Champions League matches.  Fun week.

Phire the Phucking Physio

Newcastle's season in one picture

We had low expectations for the trip to Fulham so the 1-0 win was a pleasant surprise.  In truth, a draw probably would have been the fairest result here.  Shots, shots on goal and xG were basically equal.  The difference was this shot from Bruno Guimaraes.  Nice behind the back pass by Barnes (?) but we also wonder if the keeper could have done better.

Of course, these three points did not come without a cost.  Joe Willock went down late in the first half and had to be replaced.  He's suffering from a continuing achilles heel problem and no return date was provided.  Teenager Lewis Hall also left late in the second half but that appeared to be a due to leg cramps.  Except aren't leg cramps somewhat preventable with proper training and nutrition?  Just sayin'.

Not Even A Partial Eclipse

This week's referee call under the microscope comes to us from the Wolves - West Ham contest.  With Wolves down 1-2 late, Max Kilman had appeared to level the match with a brilliant header.  Ruled a goal on the field, VAR told Tony Harrington to go to the monitor, at which point he changed his call to offside. You can see the play here.  No doubt that Chirewa is in an offside position.  He doesn't touch the ball but is he doing one of the following:

• - preventing an opponent from playing or being able to play the ball by clearly obstructing the opponent’s line of vision or

  - challenging an opponent for the ball or

  - clearly attempting to play a ball which is close when this action impacts on an opponent or

  - making an obvious action which clearly impacts on the ability of an opponent to play the ball

The only option here is the first one and that was the official explanation.  The ESPN weekly review was satisfied, citing previous, "similar," incidences that were called offside.  And a number of "experts" lined up behind that opinion.

There's no eclipse of the ball here

I am not one of them.  Neither is former referee Mark Clattenberg.  And I will argue that the "similiar" incidences chosen by the pro-offside aren't really similar.  They involve the player physically preventing the keeper from playing the ball or actually blocking his vision.  Neither happened in this case.  Check out the picture to the left.  Fabianski certainly seems to have his focus clearly on the ball.  Chirewa is not obstructing his line of vision.  That may be because Fabianski is 6'3" while Chirewa is 5'11".   The requirement for interfering with an opponent was not met.  I'm not willing to call it the worst decision of the year but I don't think the supposed clear and obvious error threshold for VAR was met here.  

Et Two Bruno

99.99% chance he's not hurt (Photo: AFP)

More than once in this space I have lamented the antics of Newcastle's Bruno Guimaraes - the
overacting on fouls, the whining, the quick temper.  While watching the enormously entertaining 2-2 Man United -Liverpool draw, the performance of Bruno Fernandes reminded me that Guimaraes isn't the only annoying Bruno out there.  All the same annoying traits.  They're both excellent players who don't need that act. I asked Dennis who was worse and he said "Fernandes but only because Guimaraes hasn't been in the league long enough. Another year and it will be a tie."

When Harry Met Salah

Not Meg Ryan and Billy Crystal (photo: Reuters)

Bonus points to Graeme Le Saux for his description of the collision between Harry Maguire and Mo Salah.  Jon Champion could only groan in response.

Meanwhile...

Arsenal win over Brighton combined with Liverpool draw puts the Gunners back on top on goal differential.  Spurs win over Nottingham Forest combined with Aston Villa draw with Brentford means Tottenham are now fourth, also on goal differential though they also have a game in hand.  

At the other end of the table, just five points separate Luton Town, Nottingham Forest, Everton, Brentford and Crystal Palace in the struggle to avoid the last relegation spot.

Like Shooting Fish in a Barrel?

Dennis sends along this article on the conversion rate of PKs in the EPL. This year the success rate is 88.5%, the highest in EPL history.  Looking at the trend line, the rate has gone from about 74% in 93-94 to just over 80% today.  The graph below shows the change.

Source: Jonathan Manual/Data Analyst/Opta

Three theories advanced for the increase are the rule change requiring keeper to have at least one foot on the line when the kick is taken, use of VAR to identify keeper infractions, and an increase in the number of left-footed kickers taking the PKs.  

The View from Europe

Excellent Champions League action in all four of the first leg of the quarterfinal series.  Arsenal-Bayern drew 2-2 and Real Madrid - Man City were 3-3.  Atletico have a 2-1 lead on Dortmund while Barcelona bring a 3-2 lead over PSG to the second leg.  In other words, all to play for.

The EPL sides fared much less well in Europa League with Liverpool going down - at home - to Atalanta 0-3, while West Ham lost 2-0 on the road at Leverkusen.  Aston Villa did a bit better, taking a 2-1 win over LOSC in their Europa Conference League match.  

If The Union Win and I Don't Watch, Do They Get Three Points?

Most definitely.  I could only take in the highlights of the Union's unlikely 2-1 win over Nashville.  This would have been fine to enjoy live, as the Union got the game winner in the 90th minute on a header from Gazdag off a McGlynn corner.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The delivery from McGlynn was superb.  How was Gazdag so wide open?  He barely moved on the play.  Having only seen the highlights, I can only go by the stats - which look basically even; the U did have a better xG at 1.8 versus 1.3.  I also saw some continued fine goalkeeping from backup Oliver Semmle.  

Hmm, the U are the only undefeated team left in MLS.  They sit second in the East, two points behind the New Jersey Red Cows with a game in hand.  Carranza and Gazdag are scoring.  Quinn Sullivan is wreaking havoc, by which I mean creating chances.  Blake has missed several matches but Semmle has done well as his replacement.  Wait, it's the hope that kills you.

Keep Plugging Away

Antoher full slate of EPL plus second legs of all the Europe competition quarter finals.  

I won't suggest this is the greatest set of fixtures for the EPL.  Newcastle host Spurs at 7:30 on Saturday on USA and that is one of the top choices for the weekend.  Opta has that as really close at 36/27/37; that feels a little light on the Spurs' chances to me.  Four matches at 10 am, none will get the blood going.  We'll likely go with Brentford - Sheffield United on Peacock given the relegation implications. The 12:30 "feature" match is Bournemouth - Man United, which could mean an early switch over to the Masters. 

Though Opta sees Arsenal as solid favorites, we're interested to see how Aston Villa do in this match (11:30 Sunday); they are rarely overmatched against any team so this could be fun.  

Definitely mark your calendars for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons for the second legs of the Champions League quarterfinals.  Barcelona - PSG (Tuesday) and Man City - Real Madrid (Wednesday) are on CBS so you can watch live or DVR.  The other matches are on Paramount Plus.

The Union will head to Atlanta for a Sunday 2:30 match.  This one is on Fox. Suck it Apple!