Hope For Mid-table Sides

Five of the top teams dropped points this weekend, buoying the chances for some of the mid-table clubs to qualify for Europe next season.  Newcastle and Aston Villa were prime beneficiaries.  Busy week but we'll get to what we can.

A Ruud Awakening?

Murphy to Isak: No really, I have 2 goals. Look at the scoreboard

Newcastle took little time in ruining Ruud von Nistolroy's and Leicester's day, scoring in just 1:55.  Livramento to Jacob Murphy, simply too easy.  Then it got worse.  This second goal from Murphy is a good example of how Leicester's season has been going.  They were lucky that Schar's shot from midfield hit the crossbar instead of going in. But the Foxes just can't dodge a bullet; somehow it will ricochet and come back and hit them.  Harvey Barnes added a third before the half time whistle and this one was over.  They played a second half but probably should have just sent everybody home.  Actually, much of the King Power Stadium crowd did leave.  

The weekend ended with Newcastle in fifth, tied with Chelsea on points and with a game in hand.  Champions League is not out of the question.

Dropping Points

It started early Saturday morning with Everton nicking a 1-1 draw with Arsenal, at least partly on the strength of a softish PK.  Darren England whisted Lewis-Skelly (him again?) for a foul on Jack Harrison as his leg in the box.  VAR Stuart Atwell did not send England to the monitor.  Arguably that was the correct use of VAR as it wasn't a clear and obvious error. You can see the play here.  Note that some are complaining that the fouling started outside the box so it shouldn't have been a PK.  But England did not think it was a foul until the contact in the penalty area so PK was the correct call, once you accept it was a foul.  Clumsy challenge by Lewis-Skelly but if it hadn't been called a foul on the field, VAR would not have intervened.

Rogers gets Villa going
Photograph: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images

Aston Villa bested third place Nottingham Forest in Champions League six pointer that had to be appreciated by Chelsea, Man City and Newcastle.  Only problem was that Chelsea and City did not take full advantage.  Chelsea were held to a 0-0 draw by Brentford and Man City could do no better than 0-0 against Man United.  Liverpool didn't even get a draw, losing 3-2 at Fulham.  So the all of the top five  (going into the weekend) dropped points.   

Villa looked ready to bury Forest after taking a 2-0 lead into halftime but the second half was pretty
much even.  Still, the 2-1 final puts the Villans clearly in the Champions League mix.

Crystal Palace dumped slumping Brighton 2-1 in a match that ended with 19 players on the pitch.  Apologies if I directed you to Ipswich - Wolves because this looks like the best choice of the weekend.  

Bend It Like Declan

Real Madrid was giving Arsenal fits in the first leg of their quarterfinal tie.  The Gunners had some good chances stopped by Courtois and were getting a few counterattacks their own.  So it was still 0-0 heading to the 60 minute mark.  Then Declan Rice unloaded this free kick.  That's just nuts; look how it bends around the wall.  How much would you pay for a goal like that? But wait, there's more. Yep, he did it again.  Just stunning.  Merino added another and Arsenal take a 3-0 lead to Madrid.  Of course, RMA have an incredible history in this competition so I'm not ready to say they're toast.

Can't help but be disappointed with Aston Villa's 1-3 result against PSG in Paris.  They did have a brief lead and looked like they might come away with a 1-2 loss that would have left them with a decent chance back home.  The stoppage time goal was a killer and prospects for advancing to the semis are dim.

The Europa Cup stuff wasn't so good either, with Spurs and Man United both getting draws in their first legs.  Chelsea were fine in Europa Conference League with a 3-0 win.

Limping to the Finish Line

Liverpool have not exactly been shining the last few weeks.  They exited both the Champions League and the FA Cup sooner than expected, lost in the final of the Carabao Cup and have dropped some points in league play.  Still, I suggest we shouldn't judge the season too harshly.  They will still likely win the Premier League, probably in relatively easy fashion.  Over 38 matches, in a competition not subject to the vagaries of strength of schedule or the luck of the draw, they will have clearly demonstrated they are the best team.  That is no small thing.

The Saints Go Marching Down

Paired with Wolves win over Ipswich, Southampton's loss to Spurs means they are returning to the Championship Division.  They take with them the dubious distinction of clinching relegation faster than any team in Premier League history - 31 games.  The previous record was 32 games held by three teams.  They were expected to struggle in their return to the Premier League and many saw them as a relegation candidate.  But the ruthless efficiency with which they accomplished the task is somewhat surprising.

 It's almost time to pull the plug on Leicester too.  With the 0-3 defeat to Newcastle they have now lost eight straight and have failed to score in all eight losses.  Their magic number is now seven points with seven matches to go.  Ipswich are not much better off with a magic number of 10 points.

Add A Fifth

Arsenal's win over Real Madrid clinched the fifth Champions League spot for the EPL.  Based on Opta's predictions, here are the percentages:

For those who want to go this extra mile, this article from ESPN goes through all the various European iterations factoring in Europa Cup and Europa Conference League.

Can You Spot the Trend?

Saturday night I was at Subaru Park for the Union's 0-0 draw with Orlando.  Up at 9 am Sunday to watch Brentford and Chelsea run around to a 0-0 result.  Then to the 11:30 Manchester derby which, for all its fury, ended 0-0.  Yikes, that's four and half hours of football with no goals.  This is not my beautiful game.

The U match was another cold night at the park - the kind where you see the steam rising off your chicken cheese steak sandwich.  They were much better than visiting Orlando in the first half but failed to put anything on the board.  Second half was about even and both sides failed to score.  Blake provided a couple key saves to preserve the draw.  We used to lament how Jim Curtin would wait until too late to make substitutions.  Not so with new boss Bradley Carnell.  With momentum swinging away from his side, Carnell made his moves at 68 minutes, switching out Damiani and Gazdag for Uhre and Vassilev.  Though they don't sound earthshattering changes, the tenor of the match did swing back to the U, just not enough for a win.

Just read that Gazdag may be going to Columbus.  First thought is why?  Last year of contract?  But U have an option for 2026.  Doesn't fit in Carnell's system?  That could be.  Gazdag is blocking players who need to play?  Cavan Sullivan for instance.  Is Vassilev an undiscovered talent?

Rinse and Repeat

So we'll do basically the same thing again this week.  EPL matchweek Friday-Monday, then Europe stuff Tuesday-Thursday.

Saturday's 7:30 opener might be good as a surging Crystal Palace travel to face Man City.  Just three 10 am choices to work with - Nottingham Forest v Everton, Brighton v Leicester or Southampton v Aston Villa.  TV sends you to the Forest-Everton clash and that's probably the better choice; Villa really should not have a hard time with the relegated Saints.  Feature 12:30 on USA (not NBC) is Arsenal - Brentford - meh.

Sunday not exactly mouthwatering either.  Three choices at 9 including Chelsea-Ipswich, Liverpool-West Ham or Wolves-Spurs.  I'd go with the latter as it looks like the most competitive match.  At 11:30 Newcastle host Man United, a fixture that seems like a bit of a tester for the Magpies' Champions League hopes.  Add Bournemouth - Fulham on Monday at 3, a contest in which the loser may be done with Europe.

There's also a random Wednesday as Newcastle will attempt to cash in their game in hand against Crystal Palace.

 The U travel to the Big Apple to face NYCFC on Saturday at 7:30.

For Europe stuff, mostly reverse everything from last week. 

At least next week, I won't be traveling and will have more time to write.