It Must Be An Illusion

Distracted and incomplete viewing in multiple locations is my excuse this week.  Will do what I can.  At least there's a bonus at the end.

It Can't Be This Easy

Harvey Barnes: Four goals in three matches

Newcastle grabbed six points, winning both their matches by a combined score of 9-1 against opponents who could have given the Magpies trouble.  The 4-1 over Man United wasn't quite as effortless as it might sound. Newcastle were the marginally better side in the first half, but the 1-1 halftime score seemed about right.  After the break the Magpies slowly but surely pulled away, starting with a brace from Harvey Barnes, who has made the most of Anthony Gordon's absence.  

The 5-0 win over Crystal Palace was that easy.  The game turned in the space of 97 seconds, between Nick Pope stopping Eze's penalty kick and Marc Guehi's own goal.  Instead of 1-1 it was 2-0 and the rout was on.  Check out this cheeky opening goal from Jacob Murphy, who is having a career season.

The Mapgies are now third, just four points behind Arsenal.  Before we get too excited, note they still have to play Aston Villa, Brighton, Arsenal and Chelsea.  The positive spin there would be that Newcastle control their destiny.  But too many losses to any in that group could dump them out of Champions League contention.

Approaching Midnight?

Nottingham Forest lost their second straight this weekend, a 0-1 defeat to Everton on a stoppage time goal.  It is tempting to think that Cinderella's carriage is finally turning into a pumpkin.  Yes, they've dropped to fourth and yes their Champions League chances have taken a hit.  On the other hand, Opta still has them with a 72.6% chance of finishing in the top five and a 98.7% chance of a top seven placing.  So even some slippage leaves them a long way from the relegation battle that experts predicted they would face. 

Other Champions League hopefuls had a mixed showing this weekend.  Chelsea did themselves no favor with a 2-2 draw against Ipswich.  Their chances for Europe now almost match Aston Villa's exactly.  The Villans took their sweet time against last place Southampton but did come away with a 3-0 win.  Arsenal, despite a draw with Brentford, look solid for Champions League while Man City bolstered their hopes with a 5-2 pasting of Crystal Palace.  Yeah, a tough week for the Eagles who lost two matches by a combined score of 10-2.  Here's the updated Opta table which now includes chances of finishing 5th, 6th or 7th:

As detailed here by ESPN, there are multiple scenarios that could see as many as ten EPL sides making European competitions next year.  I didn't see any scenarios in which fewer than seven get spots.

Too Little Too Late

Jamie Vardy to join ex-teammate Matty James at Wrexham?
Photo:Getty Images/James Baylis - AMA/Copa

Ipswich and Leicester got unexpected draws this weekend.  No where near enough to help them but damaging to the sides they drew (Chelsea and Brighton).  Leicester's tragic number is now two points, meaning they cannot lose another fixture if they hope to stay up.  Ipswich have a little more room as their number is five points but in reality their fate is essentially sealed.

The Opta table for relegation is simple:

Ipswich 100%

Leicester 100%

Southampton 100%

A fun rumor making the rounds is that Wrexham, should they get promoted to the Championship, will try to sign 38 year-old Jamie Vardy. The Red Dragons are currently second in the League One table, which would mean automatic promotion; even if they falter down the stretch, they have clinched a spot in the promotion playoffs.  Given that Leicester are going down, this isn't as crazy as it sounds.

Well, There's Always the Europa Cup

Man United and Spurs are living through their worst EPL seasons in years.  Both lost this weekend.  With little turnaround, they next faced the tough assignment of their second legs of Europa Cup quarter finals.  They had both tied in the first leg and frankly weren't looking all that great to advance. So of course both won and could now very well face each other in the final.

Spurs did not exactly shine against Eintracht Frankfurt but did have a more organized defense than we've been seeing week to week.  They got a 1-0 win on the road for an aggregate 2-1 victory.  Man United - Lyon was simply wild.  United took a 4-2 aggregate lead into halftime but conceded goals at 71 and 77 minutes.  With extra time looming, Lyon had a man sent off.  Despite the man advantage, United proceeded to surrender two goals to trail 4-6 going into the final six minutes.  Fernandes got one back with a PK, Mainoo leveled things at 120 minutes and then Harry Maguire completed the incredible comeback with a header goal in stoppage time.  Context makes that this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Spock offers his opinion on this outcome.

Arsenal completed their win over Real Madrid, getting a 2-1 second leg result to take a 5-1 win on aggregate. Aston Villa failed to advance against PSG, falling 5-4 in a tie that arguably was winnable or could have at least gone to extra time.  Recall they gave up a goal late in stoppage time in the first leg to go down 1-3.  An incredible howler from Emi Martinez early in the second leg put them in a deeper hole.  A second PSG tally left them for dead at 1-5.  A hallmark of this Villa squad is that they don't quit and by the 57th minute, the aggregrate score was back to 4-5, leaving them more than 30 minutes to get the equalizer.  Alas it was not forthcoming.  Still, this was a "what might have been" outcome for Villa.  

In Europa Conference League, Chelsea lost the second leg at home to Legia Warszawa 1-2 but since they carried a 3-0 lead into the match, they still advanced easily.  

So the EPL has four clubs still alive in European competition with a real chance to win all three.

Shutout at Yankee Stadium

I didn't get to see the Union 1-0 loss to NYCFC as I was watching 1500 heats at the Bison Track Classic.  I mean heats of the 1500 meter race, not 1500 actual heats.  Not clear that I missed much.  The stats look basically even except, maybe tellingly, expected goals which was 2-1.3 favor NYCFC.  I have no idea what to think of this team.  Glesnes still looks shaky in the center defense and it's not clear what happens with Gazdag's departure.  Is he replaced by someone on the current roster or do they use that money to get another designated player.  

Fillebrown Derby!

The Aston Villa - Newcastle clash Saturday at 12:30 (the feature NBC match) is easily the most appealing fixture of the weekend.  Both sides have been in impeccable form and the match has real consequences for Champions League qualification.  Opta gives Villa the edge at (41/34/25), likely based on home field advantage.

We don't mean to dismiss Crystal Palace - Bournemouth or Brentford - Brighton (both Saturday at 10 on Peacock).  Opta has both as very tight contests.  Dropped points for any involved likely spells the end of their already slim hopes for a berth in Europa Cup or Europa Conference League.

Surprisingly, Opta is also telling us that the London derby between Fulham and Chelsea (Sunday at 9 on USA) is another tight one. Chelsea can hardly afford dropped points here if they want to make Champions League.  

Don't miss Tuesday's rescheduled Man City - Aston Villa match (3 pm on USA) as that's another one with massive implications for Champions League qualification.  Figure City is favored but Villa somehow make every match competitive.

BFS Bonus

Many of you are likely familiar with Robin Williams' explanation of the invention of golf.  For those who are not, here's the link (definitely NSFW).  A few of us got to wondering what would Williams have done for the invention of soccer.  Courtesy of ChatGPT and BFS Health Care Consultant Jack W., here's what it might have sounded like:

“Right, so here’s the plan, lads—ye take a big open field, right? Massive! Size of a small village. Then ye get 22 people, split ’em into two angry mobs wearin’ different colors, like a turf war at a laundry. And the goal—get this—the goal is to kick a wee ball made of leather, not with yer hands, oh no, that’d be too easy! Gotta use yer feet, unless ye some mad lad who gets to be the ‘goalkeeper’—the one person allowed to use his hands like a normal human being!”

“But it gets better! They can’t just kick it in right away, no—there’s rules. If someone so much as brushes past ye, ye throw yerself on the ground like ye’ve been sniped from a clock tower! Roll around, scream, clutch yer shin like it’s been removed surgically—then 10 seconds later, ye’re up again like Jesus on Easter Sunday. It’s performance art meets war reenactment!”

“And the game lasts 90 minutes—but they add on extra time…but they don’t tell ye how much! It’s just a mystery, like the end of a Christopher Nolan film. You’re sittin’ there goin’, ‘Is it over? Are we still playin’? Are we in a dream? What’s happenin’?’”

“Then, if nobody scores, after all that runnin’ and cryin’ and pretendin’ to die, they end it with a penalty shootout! Like settlin’ a chess match with a coin toss! ‘Sorry, lads, I know ye ran 10 miles today, but now it’s just one bloke vs another, like cowboy duelin’ with footballs.’”

Scary how well ChatGPT nailed it, no?