So Much For Controlling Your Own Destiny

Newcastle lost the first of a series of Champions League six-pointers.  The Union fared better.

It Was An Illusion

The Fillebrown Derby was a great contest until it wasn't.  The first half ended 1-1 though Aston Villa had been the marginally better side.  As the second half unfolded, momentum seemed to be swinging further away from Newcastle but the score remained even until Ian Maatsen's goal at 64 minutes.  The writing was beginning to show on the wall, though some hope of at least a draw remained.  Not so much after goals at 73 and 75 minutes, as the rout was on.

What an own goal looks like - Burn deflects it past Pope
Photograph: Chris Radburn/Reuters

This was always going to be a difficult fixture so the loss isn't all that much of a surprise.  The 4-1 margin is.  It's tempting to point to some unfortunate deflections on two of the goals and say it was one of those days.  Except Aston Villa hit the woodwork at least three other times and xG (2.51-1.08) says there was nothing lucky about the final score.  In other words, this is not a loss to dismiss too lightly.  

There was some discussion about Newcastle looking like the more tired side, which at first didn't make sense because Villa has played two more games than the Magpies since the international break.  Except, the more congested schedule has meant that Emery has had no choice but to rotate his line-up.  Their superb January transfer window allows them to do this with no loss in quality.  Eddie Howe/Jason Tindall sent out the same 11 for the sixth straight match, likely thinking 1) we have six straight wins with this line up so don't mess with success and 2) there was only one mid-week match in that streak so we can probably get away with it. With the spell broken, we may see some changes on Saturday.

Annoying Victories

Man City and Chelsea both snatched wins from the jaws of dropped points.  Everton looked to be ready to take away a hard-fought 0-0 draw with City but surrendered goals at 84 and 92 minutes for an 0-2 loss.  Likewise, Fulham looked good for a result at Craven Cottage, holding a 1-0 lead late but coughed up goals at 83 and 93 minutes for a 1-2 loss to Chelsea.  Thanks guys.  Though it's hard to root against Nottingham Forest, their 2-1 win over Spurs was not exactly helpful to Newcastle either.

Easily the most annoying however was Man City's late 2-1 win over Aston Villa on Tuesday.  It's like the Villans pissed away the benefits of the big win over Newcastle.  Frankly, they didn't look all that good and as the clock ticked towards 94 minutes it was looking like a good deal to slip out of town with a 1-1 draw.  City then proceeded to score on a great cross from Doku to Nunes.  Damn.

But I Didn't Mean to Do It

In the 15th minute of the City-Villa clash,  Ruben Dias made contact with Jacob Ramsey in the penalty area.  You can see the play here.  Craig Pawson was not impressed and waved play on.  The VAR thought this was enough of a mistake that he didn't even wait for the next stoppage of play to send Pawson to the monitor to review his decision.  Looking at it again, Pawson awarded the PK.  Man City (and the announcers) trotted out the defense that Dias has raised his arms, clearly trying to avoid the contact.  That's all well and good, except that Dias still ran into Ramsey.  He had committed to the tackle and by the time he realized it wasn't going to work, it was too late to avoid the contact.  In other words, it's basically the text definition of a careless foul.  At least the guys in the studio got this one right.

That Settles That

Leicester confirmed their return ticket to the Championship (sounds like a good thing when you say it that way) with an 0-1 loss to Liverpool.  The Foxes fate had been sealed weeks ago, this just made the math final.  Also settled is that Wolves will be sticking around for another year, thanks to their 1-0 win over Man United.  

Ipswich, following an 0-4 loss to Arsenal, are down to their last point to drop.  They must win all of their last five while West Ham must lose all of theirs.  

Severance In Real Life

Michael B told me about a podcast that suggested Spurs were a football version of Severance.  They play solid football in their Europa Cup matches (the innie Spurs) but they seem to forget how to play like that as soon as they cross back over into the EPL (the outie Spurs).  Jeff H wants to laugh at this but realizes that it applies to Man United as well.  

Cheeky Chip

A late goal from Crystal Palace's Jean-Philippe Mateta, this week's YouTubeableMoment, is the reason that Liverpool only need a draw against Spurs to clinch the EPL title on Sunday.  

Big Win for the Union?

If I had to rely only on the stats, I would expect to see a 1-1 final between the Union and Atlanta.  The Union had more shots on target (4/3) while Atlanta had better possession (59/41), shots (13/10) and xG (1.5/1.3); all the margins are small so it reads like a draw.  The scoreboard said 3-0 Union.  The final is all the more remarkable given the U played a man down from 56 minutes on after Lukic got a second yellow.  Atlanta have struggled so far this year but the Union hadn't been tearing it up lately either.  I'm ready to upgrade this team from "will be lucky to make the playoffs" to "in the mix for a playoff spot." 

What'd You Say Sonny?

BFS Artistic Director Laura O sends along this alternative version of age group soccer.  The tournament may be U-90 but the fields look like U-10.  

Mixed Bag

In the next week we have FA Cup semis, EPL and first leg of all three European competition semis.

For the FA Cup, Crystal Palace will face Aston Villa on Saturday at 12:15 while Nottingham Forest will take on Man City at 11:30 on Sunday.  Both matches are at Wembley Stadium and are on ESPN.  Villa and City look like prohibitive favorites but I'm seeing many predictions that suggest both matches will go to extra time.

The truncated EPL schedule is not all that great.  Action starts at 7:30 Saturday morning with Chelsea hosting Everton; hoping for an upset there but unlikely the Toffees will come through.  Four choices at 10 am.  We'd being going with Newcastle vs Ipswich but we'll be at the Penn Relays, likely getting rained on.  The other choices are Wolves-Leicester, Brighton-West Ham, and Southampton Fulham.  I guess Brighton and Fulham have an outside shot at Europe so maybe they'll be motivated.  Sunday has Bournemouth - Man United at 9 and Liverpool - Spurs at 11:30.  In the latter, Liverpool will be looking to clinch the EPL title.  There's an extra weekday game on Thursday with Nottingham hosting Brentford; that looks like the most competitive fixture of the match week.

Four EPL sides will be in the semi-final action in Europe.  In the Champions League, Arsenal will host PSG on Tuesday.  The other semi is Inter - Barcelona on Wednesday.  Three clubs in action at 3 pm on Thursday.  Man United takes on Athletic Club, Spurs will host Bodo/Glimt and Chelsea face Djurgarden.

Note that next week will be more of the same - EPL plus European semi-finals.  

It Must Be An Illusion

Distracted and incomplete viewing in multiple locations is my excuse this week.  Will do what I can.  At least there's a bonus at the end.

It Can't Be This Easy

Harvey Barnes: Four goals in three matches

Newcastle grabbed six points, winning both their matches by a combined score of 9-1 against opponents who could have given the Magpies trouble.  The 4-1 over Man United wasn't quite as effortless as it might sound. Newcastle were the marginally better side in the first half, but the 1-1 halftime score seemed about right.  After the break the Magpies slowly but surely pulled away, starting with a brace from Harvey Barnes, who has made the most of Anthony Gordon's absence.  

The 5-0 win over Crystal Palace was that easy.  The game turned in the space of 97 seconds, between Nick Pope stopping Eze's penalty kick and Marc Guehi's own goal.  Instead of 1-1 it was 2-0 and the rout was on.  Check out this cheeky opening goal from Jacob Murphy, who is having a career season.

The Mapgies are now third, just four points behind Arsenal.  Before we get too excited, note they still have to play Aston Villa, Brighton, Arsenal and Chelsea.  The positive spin there would be that Newcastle control their destiny.  But too many losses to any in that group could dump them out of Champions League contention.

Approaching Midnight?

Nottingham Forest lost their second straight this weekend, a 0-1 defeat to Everton on a stoppage time goal.  It is tempting to think that Cinderella's carriage is finally turning into a pumpkin.  Yes, they've dropped to fourth and yes their Champions League chances have taken a hit.  On the other hand, Opta still has them with a 72.6% chance of finishing in the top five and a 98.7% chance of a top seven placing.  So even some slippage leaves them a long way from the relegation battle that experts predicted they would face. 

Other Champions League hopefuls had a mixed showing this weekend.  Chelsea did themselves no favor with a 2-2 draw against Ipswich.  Their chances for Europe now almost match Aston Villa's exactly.  The Villans took their sweet time against last place Southampton but did come away with a 3-0 win.  Arsenal, despite a draw with Brentford, look solid for Champions League while Man City bolstered their hopes with a 5-2 pasting of Crystal Palace.  Yeah, a tough week for the Eagles who lost two matches by a combined score of 10-2.  Here's the updated Opta table which now includes chances of finishing 5th, 6th or 7th:

As detailed here by ESPN, there are multiple scenarios that could see as many as ten EPL sides making European competitions next year.  I didn't see any scenarios in which fewer than seven get spots.

Too Little Too Late

Jamie Vardy to join ex-teammate Matty James at Wrexham?
Photo:Getty Images/James Baylis - AMA/Copa

Ipswich and Leicester got unexpected draws this weekend.  No where near enough to help them but damaging to the sides they drew (Chelsea and Brighton).  Leicester's tragic number is now two points, meaning they cannot lose another fixture if they hope to stay up.  Ipswich have a little more room as their number is five points but in reality their fate is essentially sealed.

The Opta table for relegation is simple:

Ipswich 100%

Leicester 100%

Southampton 100%

A fun rumor making the rounds is that Wrexham, should they get promoted to the Championship, will try to sign 38 year-old Jamie Vardy. The Red Dragons are currently second in the League One table, which would mean automatic promotion; even if they falter down the stretch, they have clinched a spot in the promotion playoffs.  Given that Leicester are going down, this isn't as crazy as it sounds.

Well, There's Always the Europa Cup

Man United and Spurs are living through their worst EPL seasons in years.  Both lost this weekend.  With little turnaround, they next faced the tough assignment of their second legs of Europa Cup quarter finals.  They had both tied in the first leg and frankly weren't looking all that great to advance. So of course both won and could now very well face each other in the final.

Spurs did not exactly shine against Eintracht Frankfurt but did have a more organized defense than we've been seeing week to week.  They got a 1-0 win on the road for an aggregate 2-1 victory.  Man United - Lyon was simply wild.  United took a 4-2 aggregate lead into halftime but conceded goals at 71 and 77 minutes.  With extra time looming, Lyon had a man sent off.  Despite the man advantage, United proceeded to surrender two goals to trail 4-6 going into the final six minutes.  Fernandes got one back with a PK, Mainoo leveled things at 120 minutes and then Harry Maguire completed the incredible comeback with a header goal in stoppage time.  Context makes that this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Spock offers his opinion on this outcome.

Arsenal completed their win over Real Madrid, getting a 2-1 second leg result to take a 5-1 win on aggregate. Aston Villa failed to advance against PSG, falling 5-4 in a tie that arguably was winnable or could have at least gone to extra time.  Recall they gave up a goal late in stoppage time in the first leg to go down 1-3.  An incredible howler from Emi Martinez early in the second leg put them in a deeper hole.  A second PSG tally left them for dead at 1-5.  A hallmark of this Villa squad is that they don't quit and by the 57th minute, the aggregrate score was back to 4-5, leaving them more than 30 minutes to get the equalizer.  Alas it was not forthcoming.  Still, this was a "what might have been" outcome for Villa.  

In Europa Conference League, Chelsea lost the second leg at home to Legia Warszawa 1-2 but since they carried a 3-0 lead into the match, they still advanced easily.  

So the EPL has four clubs still alive in European competition with a real chance to win all three.

Shutout at Yankee Stadium

I didn't get to see the Union 1-0 loss to NYCFC as I was watching 1500 heats at the Bison Track Classic.  I mean heats of the 1500 meter race, not 1500 actual heats.  Not clear that I missed much.  The stats look basically even except, maybe tellingly, expected goals which was 2-1.3 favor NYCFC.  I have no idea what to think of this team.  Glesnes still looks shaky in the center defense and it's not clear what happens with Gazdag's departure.  Is he replaced by someone on the current roster or do they use that money to get another designated player.  

Fillebrown Derby!

The Aston Villa - Newcastle clash Saturday at 12:30 (the feature NBC match) is easily the most appealing fixture of the weekend.  Both sides have been in impeccable form and the match has real consequences for Champions League qualification.  Opta gives Villa the edge at (41/34/25), likely based on home field advantage.

We don't mean to dismiss Crystal Palace - Bournemouth or Brentford - Brighton (both Saturday at 10 on Peacock).  Opta has both as very tight contests.  Dropped points for any involved likely spells the end of their already slim hopes for a berth in Europa Cup or Europa Conference League.

Surprisingly, Opta is also telling us that the London derby between Fulham and Chelsea (Sunday at 9 on USA) is another tight one. Chelsea can hardly afford dropped points here if they want to make Champions League.  

Don't miss Tuesday's rescheduled Man City - Aston Villa match (3 pm on USA) as that's another one with massive implications for Champions League qualification.  Figure City is favored but Villa somehow make every match competitive.

BFS Bonus

Many of you are likely familiar with Robin Williams' explanation of the invention of golf.  For those who are not, here's the link (definitely NSFW).  A few of us got to wondering what would Williams have done for the invention of soccer.  Courtesy of ChatGPT and BFS Health Care Consultant Jack W., here's what it might have sounded like:

“Right, so here’s the plan, lads—ye take a big open field, right? Massive! Size of a small village. Then ye get 22 people, split ’em into two angry mobs wearin’ different colors, like a turf war at a laundry. And the goal—get this—the goal is to kick a wee ball made of leather, not with yer hands, oh no, that’d be too easy! Gotta use yer feet, unless ye some mad lad who gets to be the ‘goalkeeper’—the one person allowed to use his hands like a normal human being!”

“But it gets better! They can’t just kick it in right away, no—there’s rules. If someone so much as brushes past ye, ye throw yerself on the ground like ye’ve been sniped from a clock tower! Roll around, scream, clutch yer shin like it’s been removed surgically—then 10 seconds later, ye’re up again like Jesus on Easter Sunday. It’s performance art meets war reenactment!”

“And the game lasts 90 minutes—but they add on extra time…but they don’t tell ye how much! It’s just a mystery, like the end of a Christopher Nolan film. You’re sittin’ there goin’, ‘Is it over? Are we still playin’? Are we in a dream? What’s happenin’?’”

“Then, if nobody scores, after all that runnin’ and cryin’ and pretendin’ to die, they end it with a penalty shootout! Like settlin’ a chess match with a coin toss! ‘Sorry, lads, I know ye ran 10 miles today, but now it’s just one bloke vs another, like cowboy duelin’ with footballs.’”

Scary how well ChatGPT nailed it, no?

Hope For Mid-table Sides

Five of the top teams dropped points this weekend, buoying the chances for some of the mid-table clubs to qualify for Europe next season.  Newcastle and Aston Villa were prime beneficiaries.  Busy week but we'll get to what we can.

A Ruud Awakening?

Murphy to Isak: No really, I have 2 goals. Look at the scoreboard

Newcastle took little time in ruining Ruud von Nistolroy's and Leicester's day, scoring in just 1:55.  Livramento to Jacob Murphy, simply too easy.  Then it got worse.  This second goal from Murphy is a good example of how Leicester's season has been going.  They were lucky that Schar's shot from midfield hit the crossbar instead of going in. But the Foxes just can't dodge a bullet; somehow it will ricochet and come back and hit them.  Harvey Barnes added a third before the half time whistle and this one was over.  They played a second half but probably should have just sent everybody home.  Actually, much of the King Power Stadium crowd did leave.  

The weekend ended with Newcastle in fifth, tied with Chelsea on points and with a game in hand.  Champions League is not out of the question.

Dropping Points

It started early Saturday morning with Everton nicking a 1-1 draw with Arsenal, at least partly on the strength of a softish PK.  Darren England whisted Lewis-Skelly (him again?) for a foul on Jack Harrison as his leg in the box.  VAR Stuart Atwell did not send England to the monitor.  Arguably that was the correct use of VAR as it wasn't a clear and obvious error. You can see the play here.  Note that some are complaining that the fouling started outside the box so it shouldn't have been a PK.  But England did not think it was a foul until the contact in the penalty area so PK was the correct call, once you accept it was a foul.  Clumsy challenge by Lewis-Skelly but if it hadn't been called a foul on the field, VAR would not have intervened.

Rogers gets Villa going
Photograph: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images

Aston Villa bested third place Nottingham Forest in Champions League six pointer that had to be appreciated by Chelsea, Man City and Newcastle.  Only problem was that Chelsea and City did not take full advantage.  Chelsea were held to a 0-0 draw by Brentford and Man City could do no better than 0-0 against Man United.  Liverpool didn't even get a draw, losing 3-2 at Fulham.  So the all of the top five  (going into the weekend) dropped points.   

Villa looked ready to bury Forest after taking a 2-0 lead into halftime but the second half was pretty
much even.  Still, the 2-1 final puts the Villans clearly in the Champions League mix.

Crystal Palace dumped slumping Brighton 2-1 in a match that ended with 19 players on the pitch.  Apologies if I directed you to Ipswich - Wolves because this looks like the best choice of the weekend.  

Bend It Like Declan

Real Madrid was giving Arsenal fits in the first leg of their quarterfinal tie.  The Gunners had some good chances stopped by Courtois and were getting a few counterattacks their own.  So it was still 0-0 heading to the 60 minute mark.  Then Declan Rice unloaded this free kick.  That's just nuts; look how it bends around the wall.  How much would you pay for a goal like that? But wait, there's more. Yep, he did it again.  Just stunning.  Merino added another and Arsenal take a 3-0 lead to Madrid.  Of course, RMA have an incredible history in this competition so I'm not ready to say they're toast.

Can't help but be disappointed with Aston Villa's 1-3 result against PSG in Paris.  They did have a brief lead and looked like they might come away with a 1-2 loss that would have left them with a decent chance back home.  The stoppage time goal was a killer and prospects for advancing to the semis are dim.

The Europa Cup stuff wasn't so good either, with Spurs and Man United both getting draws in their first legs.  Chelsea were fine in Europa Conference League with a 3-0 win.

Limping to the Finish Line

Liverpool have not exactly been shining the last few weeks.  They exited both the Champions League and the FA Cup sooner than expected, lost in the final of the Carabao Cup and have dropped some points in league play.  Still, I suggest we shouldn't judge the season too harshly.  They will still likely win the Premier League, probably in relatively easy fashion.  Over 38 matches, in a competition not subject to the vagaries of strength of schedule or the luck of the draw, they will have clearly demonstrated they are the best team.  That is no small thing.

The Saints Go Marching Down

Paired with Wolves win over Ipswich, Southampton's loss to Spurs means they are returning to the Championship Division.  They take with them the dubious distinction of clinching relegation faster than any team in Premier League history - 31 games.  The previous record was 32 games held by three teams.  They were expected to struggle in their return to the Premier League and many saw them as a relegation candidate.  But the ruthless efficiency with which they accomplished the task is somewhat surprising.

 It's almost time to pull the plug on Leicester too.  With the 0-3 defeat to Newcastle they have now lost eight straight and have failed to score in all eight losses.  Their magic number is now seven points with seven matches to go.  Ipswich are not much better off with a magic number of 10 points.

Add A Fifth

Arsenal's win over Real Madrid clinched the fifth Champions League spot for the EPL.  Based on Opta's predictions, here are the percentages:

For those who want to go this extra mile, this article from ESPN goes through all the various European iterations factoring in Europa Cup and Europa Conference League.

Can You Spot the Trend?

Saturday night I was at Subaru Park for the Union's 0-0 draw with Orlando.  Up at 9 am Sunday to watch Brentford and Chelsea run around to a 0-0 result.  Then to the 11:30 Manchester derby which, for all its fury, ended 0-0.  Yikes, that's four and half hours of football with no goals.  This is not my beautiful game.

The U match was another cold night at the park - the kind where you see the steam rising off your chicken cheese steak sandwich.  They were much better than visiting Orlando in the first half but failed to put anything on the board.  Second half was about even and both sides failed to score.  Blake provided a couple key saves to preserve the draw.  We used to lament how Jim Curtin would wait until too late to make substitutions.  Not so with new boss Bradley Carnell.  With momentum swinging away from his side, Carnell made his moves at 68 minutes, switching out Damiani and Gazdag for Uhre and Vassilev.  Though they don't sound earthshattering changes, the tenor of the match did swing back to the U, just not enough for a win.

Just read that Gazdag may be going to Columbus.  First thought is why?  Last year of contract?  But U have an option for 2026.  Doesn't fit in Carnell's system?  That could be.  Gazdag is blocking players who need to play?  Cavan Sullivan for instance.  Is Vassilev an undiscovered talent?

Rinse and Repeat

So we'll do basically the same thing again this week.  EPL matchweek Friday-Monday, then Europe stuff Tuesday-Thursday.

Saturday's 7:30 opener might be good as a surging Crystal Palace travel to face Man City.  Just three 10 am choices to work with - Nottingham Forest v Everton, Brighton v Leicester or Southampton v Aston Villa.  TV sends you to the Forest-Everton clash and that's probably the better choice; Villa really should not have a hard time with the relegated Saints.  Feature 12:30 on USA (not NBC) is Arsenal - Brentford - meh.

Sunday not exactly mouthwatering either.  Three choices at 9 including Chelsea-Ipswich, Liverpool-West Ham or Wolves-Spurs.  I'd go with the latter as it looks like the most competitive match.  At 11:30 Newcastle host Man United, a fixture that seems like a bit of a tester for the Magpies' Champions League hopes.  Add Bournemouth - Fulham on Monday at 3, a contest in which the loser may be done with Europe.

There's also a random Wednesday as Newcastle will attempt to cash in their game in hand against Crystal Palace.

 The U travel to the Big Apple to face NYCFC on Saturday at 7:30.

For Europe stuff, mostly reverse everything from last week. 

At least next week, I won't be traveling and will have more time to write. 

A Little Bit of Everything

I will blame any inaccuracies or incompleteness on a busy schedule and poor memory.

On To Wembley

Reports of my demise were exaggerated

The FA Cup quarterfinals yielded four matches of varying degrees of interest.  Crystal Palace were surprisingly easy 3-0 winners over Fulham.  Nottingham Forest and Brighton did little to separate themselves over 120 minutes so that one went to PKs.  Forest prevailed 4-3 and their magic season continues.  Aston Villa dominated Preston but took their sweet time in getting it to show on the scoreboard; three second half goals - two from reclamation project Marcus Rashford - put that one to bed.  Bournemouth had an early lead versus Man City but there would be no cherry on top of this Sunday as the Citizens grabbed two second half goals for the win.

The semis at Wembley on April 26th will see Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace and Man City vs Nottingham Forest.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve: Check out the picture of the last time Aston Villa won the FA Cup (1957)

Dennis:  Here's one from the last time Newcastle won it

Steve: Hey wait, it's only been two years longer for the Magpies. They won it in 1955

Dennis: When were you born?

Steve: 1956

Dennis: If it was before you were born, by definition, it was back in the Stone Age

No Hangover

Isak gets his 20th league goal

Newcastle faced a tricky fixture against Brentford in their return to EPL action after the Caraboa Cup
win.  The good news it that they came out with plenty of confidence and did most of the attacking in the first half.  Looked like it would be for naught until Murphy put a great cross right onto Isak's foot that the Swede converted into a 1-0 lead right before halftime.  Some sloppy work by Pope led to a second half PK that was smartly converted by Mbuemo.  Brentford looked the better side for a time after that, hitting the post and generally having the better of play.  Tonali rescued the Magpies with this most unlikely of goals.  It was not a deflection but there is ongoing debate as to whether it was a cross or a shot.  I think (and Dennis agrees) it was a shot.  Newcastle survived a possible stoppage time foul in the box by Bruno G to hang on to the 2-1 win.  

Not the best of performances, especially the finishing, but good enough.  

The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight

Man United totally dominated Nottingham Forest and were rewarded with an 0-1 loss.  Possession was 68/32, shots were 23/8 and shots on target were 6/2.  The six shots on target seems low as I remember feeling like United blew chance after chance.  The xG - 1.74 to .57 - matches up with that sense.  The Red Devils simply did not take advantage of their opportunities.  Forest meanwhile benefited from an incredible solo effort by Anthony Elanga, an easy choice for this weeks YouTubeableMoment.  He only ran about 85 yards, eluded three defenders and calmly slotted the ball past Onana at the end of his lung-busting run.  Once again, Nottingham Forest have refused to turn into a pumpkin.  Note that they managed this win without top scorer Chris Wood and attacking midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White.

Back Into the Mix

Not that they were really out of it but Aston Villa definitely established themselves as a contender for Champions League with a 3-0 win over Brighton.  I didn't see the game and Dennis didn't see all of it either.  The scoresheet says 3-0 but the stats make it sound like a draw.  

Leaving aside a trip to Southampton, the Villans now start a run of six-point fixtures against many of the other contestants for European slots, including Nottingham Forest, Newcastle (Fillebrown Derby!), Fulham and Bournemouth.  The tricky part will be managing that around this year's Champions League action (PSG is next) and FA Cup semis.  

Other Random Thoughts

The top six sides all got wins so there was no movement there.  Leicester managed a .08 xG in their 0-2 loss to Man City.  Hardly a statement win for City but they are now missing Haaland for about seven weeks.  Ipswich got a win over Bournemouth and Southampton took a point from Crystal Palace but Wolves got a 1-0 win over West Ham so the relegation situation didn't really change.  

A Cameo From the Special One

Jose Mourinho, now managing in the Turkish league, still finds a way to make news.  As seen here, he grabbed the nose of rival manager Okan Buruk after losing in the Turkish Cup quarter-final.  A cheeky moment no doubt but almost as good is how Buruk goes down writhing in pain.  Buruk claims it did leave a slight scratch.  Probably should get a rabies shot.

Bad News, Good News

Oh crap...
Photo: Rebecca Blackwell - AP

So the Union did not come home from Miami with any points.  That's the bad news.  The good news is that if you watched the game (Dennis did but I didn't as I was at the Wells Fargo Center eating a Federal Donuts chicken sandwich with fries) and look at the stats, you conclude that the Union definitely held their own here, despite the 2-1 scoreline.  Possession was 54/46 favor Miami but shots were 20/6 and shots on target were 6/3, both favor the Union.  Most tellingly, xG was 2.5-1.9 in their favor as well.  The killer was clearly Messi scoring a mere two minutes after entering the match to double the lead.  Gazdag got one back they couldn't find an equalizer.  

Their first serious test and you have to say they passed even if they didn't get any points.  If they can go toe-to-toe with Miami down there, they should be competitive.

Back on DST

England caught up to us so the times are back to normal.  Which means I may not be there for the 7:30 kick-off between Everton and Arsenal.  There's a clear choice in my mind for the 10 am matches and that would be Ipswich hosting Wolves.  This is realistically the last chance for the Tractor Boys to make a move to avoid relegation.  They'll start the day nine points short of the 17th place Wolves; even with a win they will still sit six back.  But a loss or a draw means they are 12 or 9 back with seven to play.  Opta sees that one as dead even (36/36/28).  Crystal Palace - Brighton could be an excellent match too since they don't like each other very much. West Ham versus Bournmouth is your third choice.

The feature 12:30 match (on USA, not NBC as they will be covering the Augusta Women's National Amateur golf tournament) looks good as Aston Villa will host Nottingham Forest.  Actually, Villa are solid favorites here, likely due to the home field advantage and the possibility that Chris Wood and Morgan Gibbs-White will still be out with injuries.  But as we've noted, no one has really woken Forest from their dream yet.  

Three Sunday 9 am fixtures but nothing that really stands out - Brentford v Chelsea, Fulham v Liverpool and Spurs v Southampton.  There is the Manchester Derby at 11:30; given how both teams have largely disappointed this season, it could still be interesting.

Newcastle travel to Leicester for a Monday 3pm clash.  Given the Foxes recent form, anything less than three points here is a massive blow to the Magpies Champions League hopes.

I'll be at Subaru Park for the Union match vs Orlando Saturday night at 7:30.  They've done a bit better since losing to the U 2-4 on opening day.  We'll call this a useful test.

And don't forget the big mid-week of European football.  Arsenal host Real Madrid on Tuesday and Aston Villa travel to Paris to face PSG on Wednesday in the first legs of their Champions League quarter-final ties.  Thursday is crowded with Man United facing Lyon away and Spurs hosting Eintracht Frankfurt in their Europa League quarter-final matches, both at 3pm.  At least the Chelsea - Legia Warsazawa Europa Conference League quarter-final is at 12:45 if you're inclined to double dip.  

Eesh, bad week to be traveling so I envision I'll be taking in some by replay on my phone after hours.