It's Not Pessimism If It's True

With Newcastle surprisingly up 2-1 at half time versus Man City, I confidently predicted to Dennis a 2-4 loss.  Pessmistic perhaps but also grounded in the reality that 1)Newcastle had no bench and 2) City would be bringing in Kevin DeBruyne around the 60th minute.  In fact, KDB entered the match in the 69th minute.  He scored in the 74th minute, then assisted on the winning goal in the 91st minute.  Okay, I was way off, it was only a 2-3 loss.  

Probably a great watch for the neutrals (and City fans obviously), with the comeback and five quality goals.  Silva's cheeky backheel at 26 minutes, after a spell of dominance by the visitors, boded poorly for home side.  That's why the sequence of well-taken shots by Isak at 35 minutes and Gordon at 37 minutes were stunners.  Game on.  Well, sort of.  The second half was like waiting for a bomb to go off.  You could see the Newcastle players getting leggy.  DeBruyne's equalizer was study in finesse over power and Bobb's game winner, while partly the result of a lucky deflection, was some deft footwork.  We reluctantly make it this week's YouTubeableMoment; the finish was sublime but so was DeBruyne's entry pass into the box.  Sometimes you have to give the other guy credit.

Fighting Fire With A Water Pistol

He's got Jack Grealish hair now but still scores like KDB
Getty Images

In no way do I mean to demean Lewis Hall or Eddie Howe (or Guardiola for that matter), but the how telling is it that when Guardiola brought in Kevin DeBruyne, Newcastle's best move was to counter by subbing out Anthony Gordon for the 17-year old Hall?    Doesn't feel like that was one guy outcoaching another but just one guy with a better arsenal.  As Dennis notes, "Pep is brilliant.  He brought on the best player in the world and his team won.  I never would have thought to make that move."

BFS Travel Consultant Jeff K sends along this read from Football365.  It's a long but worthwhile collection of conclusions from the match.  I will disagree on a few points.  On No. 10, the author discusses how the injury to Ederson on one of those delayed offside flags may affect the issue.  Fair point that VAR means there will be a directive to ARs to hold the flag to let the play unfold.  Except, the threshold could be way tighter. For example, the directive could be if you see space between the attacker and the defender, put the flag up right away.  The issue isn't going away but it can be much less problemmatic.

On No. 15 the author suggests that Newcastle's response to the injuries and absences by "bleating about the 'rules' stopping them from buying the league really isn't going to cut it."  Okay, maybe we don't need to "bleat" about, but it is a fact that Newcastle cannot spend their way out of the current situation.  The league is clearly serious about enforcing the Financial Fair Play rules (well, unless you're Man City) so the restrictions are real.

Draws Good and Bad, But Mostly Bad

Moreno's shot found the back of the net but the goal
was chalked off for offside (Getty Images)

Three of the other four matches ended in draws.  Aston Villa can't be too pleased about a 0-0 draw with Everton, even if it was at Goodison Park.  The only silver lining there might be that the old Villa would have contrived to lose that match.  Vincent Kompany's Burnley were minutes away from a big three points against relegation rival Luton Town, only to see Carlton Morris level things in the 92nd minute; sure one point wasn't terrible but all three would have significantly brightened Burnley's chance of staying up.  Finally, in the old days a 2-2 draw at Old Trafford would have been more than satisfactory for Tottenham.  Off of United's recent form, Spurs might have been thinking more.  On the other hand, rallying twice from deficits while playing without Son doesn't sound all that bad.

In the only other weekend match, Chelsea continued to underwhelm, ekeing out a 1-0 win at home against Fulham.  We note that the only goal was a PK, called on the softest of touches against Sterling, who made a five-course meal of the foul.  

If At First You Don't Succeed

You get a mid-week FA Cup replay.  We had eight of them spread out between Tuesday and Wednesday.  For whatever reason, ESPN+ limited our choices Bristol City vs West Ham on Tuesday and Blackpool vs Nottingham Forest on Wednesday.  Happily enough, they both turned out to be entertaining.  West Ham fell behind in the third minute on a clusterfk of a screw-up (seen here) in the back.  Benrahma made things even more difficult for the Hammers, getting sent off for a straight red in the 51st minute.  Made for a close match but Bristol City held on for the 1-0 win.  

Nottingham Forest looked in control, taking a 2-0 lead early in the second half.  Blackpool gamely fought back to send the match into extra time (unlike the first match, the replay has to have a winner).  Chris Wood was the difference maker, slotting the game winner in the 110th minute.  Highly entertaining stuff.  

Note that Wolves - Brentford also went into extra time, with Wolves getting the game winner on a PK.  So here's the final tally for the third round by division

Division                        Wins   Losses

Premier League                15         5

Championship                  14        10

League 1                           0          6

League 2                           2          5

National League                 0          3

National League South       1          0 

Fourth round matches are Thursday - Monday January 25-29

 

Forest Green Sightings

We saw two more Forest Green players in FA Cup action, with Scott McKenna coming on to shore up Nottingham Forest's defense in their 3-2 win over Blackpool and George Tanner doing well as part of a back three in Bristol City's 1-0 upset over West Ham.

The virtual version acquitted itself reasonably well in a five-game gauntlet that featured consecutive matches against Tottenham, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Man United.  We managed to collect seven points in wins over Liverpool and Chelsea plus a draw with Spurs.  Arsenal was only a 0-1 defeat, although stats look really bad.  The Man United game was a 1-4 blowout.  That holiday performance was enough to keep us in third for the time being.  We celebrated with a totally frustrating 0-0 away draw against Championship Division Scunthorpe that earns us a mid-week replay for the right to face Man United in the 4th round.  Woo-hoo.

Second Half of Split Match Week

Frankly, not quite as exciting as last weekend.  For whatever reason, the schedule makers have again eschewed the 10 am time slot favor of one match at 7:30 and a second at 12:30.  Must be people who like to get Saturday errands done.  Anyway, we start with a London derby at 7:30 between Arsenal and Crystal Palace on USA; that's followed by the NBC Feature match at 12:30.  Sunday has Sheffield United hosting West Ham at 9 and Bournemouth versus Liverpool at 11:30; you can catch both of those on USA.  The drawn out match week ends on Monday with Brighton - Wolves at 2:45 also on USA.

Not a lot to work with there.  Brentford will welcome back Ivan Toney from his eight month suspension for gambling, which should do wonders for the Bees attack and might help them break their five game losing streak.  The Monday game might be interesting.

Don't forget the second leg of the Carabao Cup midweek semis.  On Tuesday, Chelsea host Middlesbrough, trailing 0-1.  Liverpool travel to Fulham on Wednesday, bringing a 2-1 lead into Craven Cottage.  

Wish I had some additional bandwidth to cover the Africa Cup of Nations or the Asian Cup.  All I know right now is that it's leaving a number of teams short on personnel.  You can catch a couple of Africa Cup games every day at 12 and 3 pm on BeIN Sports.  

Crisis Averted - For Now

Damn, got a decent case of COVID.  I have a doctor's note excusing me from blogging this week but I can work my way through a few items.

Magpies post-match picture on the pitch in front of
traveling fans did not sit well with some

A fairly decisive 3-0 for Newcastle over Sunderland at the Stadium of  Light likely takes the spotlight, however briefly, off Eddie Howe.  There were many reasons to think the visit wouldn't go well - Newcastle's recent form, away match, a derby, FA Cup, etc.  Kind of amazing to me that Sunderland came out expecting that all those factors would be enough for them to secure the win.  They actually seemed surprised that the Magpies played hard.  The final score is mildly flattering to Newcastle (xG was only 1.36 -.65) , so we shouldn't get too carried away with the result.  However, there was little doubt as the better side when the final whistle blew.  Of course it came with a price - another injury to Joelinton.

Not A Good Weekend For Minnows

Part of the magic of the FA Cup is supposed to be the surprises that the lower division sides (the minnows) occasionally spring on the bigger clubs.  Not so much this time.  Of the 24 matches with a winner, I count only three as upsets and two of them were mild at best.

Sheffield Wednesday are just 13 places below Cardiff City in the Championship Division so that's not much of an upset.  Wrexham are in the league below Shrewsbury but the difference between the two is actually just 12 places (Shrewsbury 15th in League 1 and Wrexham 3rd in League 2) so the Dragons 1-0 win is hardly a shocker.  We make the late game winner in that one this week's YouTubeableMoment.    The third one is legit, a real doozy that probably went under the radar.  National League South (6th tier) Maidstone bested League 1 Stevenage; the difference there is - wait, carry the one - 68 places. Yeah, the 51st ranked team was lucky enough to get the 95th ranked team but couldn't get the job done.  Ouch.  Meanwhile, number 4 Arsenal got stuck with number 1 Liverpool and have gracefully exited the competition.

Here's what we have so far:

Division                        Wins    Draws    Losses

Premier League                11         7            2

Championship                   11         4            9

League 1                            0         3            6

League 2                            1         1            5

National League                  0         1            2

National League South        1         0            0

Some of the draws may turn into Ws for a few lower division sides but we could be looking at a round of 32 with as few as three teams outside the top two divisions.  

Poor As A Two-Syllable Word

ESPN has the FA and Carabao Cup action so we have been spared the "clown show" of CBS/Paramount studio coverage (Micah Richards, you're still not funny).  Mostly enjoying Craig Burnley's observations but especially like hearing him describe a side's performance as "pooh-ah."  Also, I laughed when he pleaded with Middlesbrough to come up with a decent performance in the home leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final against Chelsea; he basically said there would be no point in covering the second leg if they didn't.  Fortunately, Boro came through with a 1-0 result, leaving all to play for in the second leg.

Forest Green Players in Action

Things could have been a lot worse for Middlesbrough
if not for Matt Clarke; he's done well for my Forest Green too
Photo: Clive Brunskill, Getty Images

Based on my review of lineups, three of my FM Forest Green players were in FA Cup action this weekend.  Matt Clarke was a rock on defense for Middlesbrough as they made life difficult for Aston Villa; the Villans ended up squeaking out a 1-0 win on a late deflected shot.  Striker Aaron Collins made a substitute appearance as Bristol Rovers drew with Norwich City. And there was Harvey Elliott playing for Liverpool against Arsenal; not his best day as the Reds looked a bit better after he departed.  Scott McKenna was on the bench but did not play for Nottingham Forest in their draw with Blackpool.

Speaking of Forest Green, I did fall behind a bit the last few months but am almost caught up.   We sit third in the table following a confounding sequence of results.  A frustrating 0-0 draw with last place Burnley on the heels of a tepid 1-0 win at home vs mid-table AstonVilla left me wondering what was up.  But then we got a 1-1 draw with Tottenham and a big 2-0 win at home against Liverpool that moved us from 5th to 3rd.  Our next three matches are Arsenal (1st), Chelsea (4th) and Man United (6th) so maybe some fall off is in the cards.

Split Weekend

The EPL offers the clubs a little break from the congested holiday schedule with their version of the NFL bye week.  Matchweek 21 is spread over the next two weekends so everybody gets a week off.  Of course, the value of the off week is considerably diluted when seven of the clubs have to fit in an FA Cup replay on Tuesday or Wednesday.  Still, I guess it's useful to not have three matches in eight days.

Newcastle are right back in the firing lines, hosting Man City Saturday at 12:30 for the NBC feature match.  Even with homefield "advanatage," Opta has this at 19/26/55 favor City.   Haaland might not play so maybe that will keep the score down.

Friday has a great relegation six-pointer, with 19th place Burnley hosting 18th place Luton Town; that's at 2:45 on USA.  Not sure why, with a wide open day, they put Chelsea - Fulham at 7:30 on Saturday morning but at least it's on USA so you can DVR and watch it when you're awake.  Sunday's two fixtures look good too.  At 9 am on USA we have Everton - Aston Villa; while we expect a W for the visitors, this is tighter than you might think (Opta has is 31/29/40 for Villa).  Also looking forward to Man United - Tottenham at 11:30 on Peacock.  Since it's at Old Trafford, United are favored but this should be a good one.

Don't forget FA Cup replays on Tuesday and Wednesday.   Choices are here.

That's all I got.  Blame any errors on COVID brian.

Looking Like Last Year

Just one match week to report on so that means just one Newcastle loss to discuss.  We're here a day early since FA Cup action starts on Thursday.

Newcastle's one loss was a strange one for sure, notable for perhaps the least positive of reasons.  Since they started keeping track of expected goals in the 2010/11 season, this was the highest xG ever recorded by one team - 7.27.  As noted here, it wasn't by a narrow margin either - the next highest is 5.87.  Newcastle were scrambling from the opening whistle.  One goal was called back for offside, Salah missed a PK so the halftime score was incredibly 0-0.  Salah took care of that early in the second half but surprisingly, the Magpies struck back in less than five minutes.  Two goals in rapid succession by Jones and Gakpo opened up a 3-1 gap but Botman got one of those back.  A dodgy PK call (not clear if Dubravka actually touched Jota but if he did the contact was minimal and Jota didn't go down until about an hour after the contact) gave Salah another chance from the spot and he didn't miss this one.  Liverpool had 34 shots, 15 on target.  It's really hard to complain too much about Taylor's PK calls given that the match should have been a blowout.

To their credit, for all the time that they spent defending, Newcastle didn't really park the bus.  They weren't afraid to press forward in those rare moments when they had the advantage.  It was a car crash that you really should have looked away from but were too fascinated by what was happening.  Newcastle are rapidly spinning towards irrelevance, the place where a side is out of contention for Europe but in no danger of relegation.

It Wasn't Supposed To Be This Hard

Ollie Watkins is puzzled that Villa are level with 
Burnley despite a man advantage

Already up 2-1 against 19th place Burnley, Aston Villa got another boost when Sander Berge was sent off in the 56th minute.  Game over, right?  Um, no.  The Clarets proceeded to level the match in the 71st minute so it dragged toward stoppage time all square.  Fortunately, the Villans got help from a former teammate when Aaron Ramsey kicked Jhun Duran in the box.  Not the most egregious of fouls but not a clear and obvious error.  Douglas Luiz dispatched the PK and Aston Villa came away with a 3-2 win.  Once again we are left with how to spin this.  Is it that Aston Villa are living on borrowed time and aren't quite as good as they seem or are they simply figuring out how to win with less than their best?  I guess both is possible.

Beleaguered Managers

Checking in on the managers under stress, we see that Roy Hodgson's Crystal Palace got a 3-1 win over Brentford so that might take some of the pressure off for him.  On the other hand, Man United 2-1 lost at Nottingham Forest, putting Erik ten Hag back in the driver's seat for the sack race.  Eddie Howe's situation is a bit more nuanced.  No one expected a result at Anfield so the 4-2 loss doesn't really change anything.  But six losses in seven keeps him on the hot seat.  His fate may rest with the FA Cup match against bitter rival Sunderland on Saturday.

BFS Jinx?

After writing glowingly of Everton's results after the points deductions, recent performance hasn't been so good as the Toffees have endured three straight losses.  To be fair, the streak includes a 2-1 loss to Spurs and a 3-1 loss to Man City so we'll try not to overreact in the other direction.  However, we note that they have slipped back to 17th place, just one point out of the relegation zone.  Further, there doesn't appear to be any specific timetable on the appeal of the 10-point deduction.  Stay tuned for a bumpy ride.

Top to Bottom

Arsenal stumbled badly at Fulham, losing 2-1 and managed just three shots on goal.  That meant both Aston Villa and Man City (2-0 winners versus Sheffield United) slipped past the Gunners into second and third respectively.  Spurs, after a tough 3-1 win over Bournemouth, sit just one point out of the top four.  It's a bit of drop to 6th to find West Ham, who have four straight clean sheets. 

 All three clubs in the relegation zone lost so there was no change at the bottom.  

I Miss 538

They had so much good data and much of it was downloadable.  A prime example is looking at the holiday fixture performance for every team.  I could download results (and expected points) to a spreadsheet and have a calculation of who over or under performed during the holidays in a few minutes.  This time I had to do it by hand and the "expected points" are my own guesses.  With that said, here's the table:

Teams are ranked from highest to lowest based on the percentage of expected points they actually got.  Rating the holiday period, adjusting the schedule for degree of difficulty as it were.  It does offer a different perspective.  Sure, Man City grabbed 11 points but they dropped points they should have gotten in a loss to Aston Villa and a draw with Crystal Palace. Nottingham Forest grabbed only seven points but realistically were looking at just two points in a fixture list that included Everton, Fulham, Wolves, Spurs, Bournemouth, Newcastle and Man United.  Luton Town at the top seems a little strange since they only got six but they were looking at a bleak Christmas.  Speaking of Man United, they surprised me in exceeding Newcastle's underwhelming holiday, with losses to Bournemouth, West Ham and Nottingham Forest. Brentford weren't projected for all that much joy and they got even less than expected.  

Managers Who Can

BFS Artistic Director Laura O. sends along this link showing that sometime those who teach can also do. 

FA Cup Weekend

This is the weekend that Premier League sides enter the FA Cup.  Always looking to recycle, you can click on this BFS post from 2014 for a some explanation and history on the competition.

Newcastle have an interesting draw as they will travel to Sunderland for their first match of competition.  This is a long and bitter rivalry which has been dormant due to the two sides not having been in the same division since 2015/16.  The oddsmakers have the Magpies with 56% chance of winning and 22% chance of a draw.  Sounds encouraging but it's away and it's the FA Cup and it's Sunderland.  

The quaint format of no seeds, as described in the old post, gives us with the ridiculous third round match up between Liverpool and Arsenal (1st and 4th respectively). This is like Purdue meeting UConn in the first round of the NCAA basketball tournament.  That fixture is 11:30 on Sunday.  There are three other matches between Premier League sides - Crystal Palace vs Everton (Thursday's match), Tottenham - Burnley (one of the Friday fixtures), and Brentford vs Wolves (also Friday).

The make up of the remaining sides is 20 EPL, 24 Championship Division, nine League 1, seven League 2, three Vanarama National League and one Vanarama National League South.  Spoiler alert for Wrexham fans but they play Shrewsbury Sunday at 9.   The full schedule is here.  Looks like this is an ESPN+ only event.

Though we've been known to rag on the FA Cup, you know we'll be watching.  

The Grinch Stole Christmas (and Boxing Day)

Talk about coal in your Christmas stocking.  Newcastle got no points against two sides in the bottom four.  Aston Villa got one point in their two matches.  Ho ho ho my ass. 

You Can Go Home Again

Chris Wood comes "home" for Christmas
Photo: Lee Smith/Action Images/Reuters

Ex-Magpie Chris Wood returned to Saint James' Park and dropped a hat trick on Newcastle to complete the holiday wipeout.  On Saturday against 18th place Luton Town, Newcastle managed just two shots on goal in a 1-0 loss.  All I remember now is thinking can we just get out of here with a draw?  Boxing Day was even worse.  Newcastle did get an early lead thank's to a Guimaraes PK but they couldn't even take that into the halftime lockerroom because Chris Wood got a stoppage time tap in.  Two more early in the second half from Wood and you knew this match was out of reach.  

Surveying the damage, we see that Newcastle could not manage a goal from the run of play against the 17th and 18th place sides.  With players returning, injuries and fatigue are becoming less an explanation and more of an excuse.  Well, that's not completely fair, as this team defines the "whole is greater than the sum of the parts" concept so missing players like Jacob Murphy, Elliott Anderson, Harvey Barnes, and Matt Targett may be more damaging than we realize.  Also, fitness levels for returning players like Botman could be an issue too.  Whatever, they are not fun to watch right now.

Not Much Better For Villa

Things weren't all that great for Aston Villa either, as they eschewed the chance to go top of the table for Christmas.  On Friday they did look the better side at home versus Sheffield United, having more possession and more shots but it was still 0-0 late.  An 87th minute goal from Cameron Archer made it look like they wouldn't even get one point but Nicolo Zaniolo rescued the draw with a 97th minute equalizer.  Pretty thin gruel for the BFS sides this weekend so this ends up being the YouTubeableMoment.

Though the opponent was much tougher, the 3-2 loss at Old Trafford feels even worse.  Villa were up 2-0 at halftime and seemingly in control.  They even had a goal from Leander Dendoncker.  You know that here at BFS we don't buy that two goal lead is the toughest to defend nonsense.  However, Villa proceeded to prove the exception, ceding two to Garnacho and the game winner to Hojlund.  Villa probably deserved a draw here but the second half was very unVilla-like.  This was first time they dropped points from a winning position.  

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis:  Did you say Klopp substituted Tsimikas?

Steve: No I said he took him out

Tsimikas ended up with a broken collarbone from the incident, though I'm pretty sure it was the initial landing as opposed to the subsequent kollision with Klopp that caused the break.  He'll be out for several months, if not the rest of the season.  Recall that Tsimikas had been deputized to fill in for Andy Robertson, who dislocated his shoulder earlier this season.  He'll be returning shortly so Liverpool is not looking at a long term hole at this position.

The Real Coach "Beard"

The beard is back

Good to see Nuno Espirito Santo back in the EPL, even if his Nottingham Forest side took the measure of Newcastle on Tuesday.  Nuno's first game back wasn't so sweet as he saw Willy Boly get two yellows in the opening 23 minutes against Bournemouth.  Forest still made a match of it, taking a 1-0 lead and rallying from a 1-2 deficit.  Alas, Solanke completed his hat trick with a stoppage time goal to seal the win for the Cherries.  Taking three points from Newcastle probably took some of the sting of that defeat away.  Forest are currently two points clear of the bottom three but are probably in for a  relegation battle

Hard Times At the Top

Liverpool got four points from 1-1 draw with Arsenal and a 2-0 win over Burnley.  That was enough to put them top of the table.  Arsenal only got the one point from that draw, losing 0-2 to West Ham on Thursday; they sit second.  Villa also just got the one point and are third.  Actually, Man City did okay, winning the FIFA Club World Cup (4-0 over Fluminense) on Saturday, then taking the measure of Everton 3-1 to slide past Tottenham into fourth (with a game in hand no less). Spurs got three from 2-1 win over Everton but were fairly well beaten at Brighton and fell to fifth.    

Don't Look Now

Bournemouth have won four in row, haven't lost in seven and have taken 19 of the last 21 points on offer.  Their last defeat was 11/4 against Man City and they've beaten Man United and Newcastle (well maybe that's not a big a deal as we thought) in the streak.  

Will Still Have A Job 1/1/24

Post-Christmas wins for ten Hag and Pochettino mean they will probably be around for the new year.  After ugly pre-Christmas losses, that wasn't a sure thing.  Man United were awful in a 2-0 loss at West Ham and Chelsea no better in a 2-1 loss at Wolves.  The latter included six more yellows for Chelsea players.  United's comeback win over Villa should give ten Hag some breathing room.  Chelsea did not exactly dominate struggling Crystal Palace but late PK gave them a much needed 2-1 win.  

Given expectations, they will probably remain on the hot seat for the time being, joining Roy Hodgson and Eddie Howe.  We will argue that Howe certainly deserves more time to see how he fares with a full squad.  The next two league matches are Liverpool and Man City so that doesn't seem like a fair test either.  However, Newcastle do have Sunderland in the Third Round of the FA Cup sandwiched between those two fixtures;  a loss in that one could be more problemmatic.  Hodgson is in more peril.  Palace are just three points outside the relegation zone.  They haven't won since 11/4 and have taken just three of the last 24 points available.

The Last of the Holiday Fixtures

Everybody gets one more match before heading to the FA Cup weekend.  Another early start with Luton Town - Chelsea at 7:30 on Saturday on USA. Will the real Chelsea please stand up?  Four to choose from at 10 am.  We think the TV guys got it right with Wolves - Everton but loyalties may require us to take in Aston Villa - Burnley.  Your other choices Man City - Sheffield United (right, Opta has the Blades with a 3% chance of winning and 11% chance of getting a draw) or a London Derby between Crystal Palace and Brentford (actually that one will be competitive).  The NBC feature match is Nottingham Forest - Man United; on paper it doesn't sound great but we'll watch to see if either sides builds on their Boxing Day triumphs.

Two at 9 am on Sunday - a London Derby between Fulham and Arsenal (Peacock) or Spurs - Bournemouth on USA; as noted above, Bournemouth have been a tough draw lately but Tottenham will be looking to get back on track after the spanking by Brighton.

We can ring in the Newcastle Year with a very difficult contest - on the road at Liverpool (3pm USA).  The holiday schedule wraps up on Tuesday with West Ham  - Brighton (2:30 on USA), an interesting contest between two top half sides.  

If we have time next week, we'll try to identify the big winners and loser in the 12/2 - 1/2 holiday period, which saw most sides play seven matches.  Spoiler alert: unless they pull off an upset on New Year's Day, Newcastle will be one of the losers.  

Not That Kind of Boxing

Tuesday, Boxing Day, is one of my favorite days of the year, with many of the EPL teams in action.  I always thought it was called Boxing Day because, after 2-3 days together for the holiday, relatives would start to fight.  Turns out it was traditionally a day for giving gifts to the poor.

Despite going to a wedding out in Central PA, I did get to see more games than I expected thanks to fortuitous scheduling, Peacock replays and DVR so I do have some observations from the weekend.  

Life Is Easier A Man Up

Jimenez literally head butts Longstaff

Though it took long enough, Newcastle eventually capitalized on a silly (bizarre?) red card challenge by Raul Jimenez in the 22nd minute to come away with a 3-0 win over Fulham.  The Magpies were doing okay but not great before the sending off, then continued to do okay but not great for another 35 minutes.  Lewis Miley broke the spell with a good finish in the 57th minute, bagging his first career goal.  Given the context, we make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Almiron and Dan Burn added insurance goals and it was all relatively comfortable.  One wonders if it would have gone that well with both teams at full strength.  Oh yeah, and Newcastle saw two more players - Schar and Joelinton - leave with injuries.  Everything comes with a price these days.

Shouldn't That Be "I Got a Red Card?"

Frank incensed - another holiday traditon?

As they have done to other clubs, Brentford gave Aston Villa all they could handle, carrying a 1-0 lead late into the match.  Then Mee got a red card at 71 minutes.  Alex Moreno leveled things a few minutes later with a nifty header at the far post and Watkins supplied the game winner at 85 minutes. As with Newcastle, you wonder if Villa get all three points in an even strength match.

This one got ugly after the red card.  Thomas Frank was not pleased with the sending off decision, nor initially with Watkins' response after the game winner.  They did talk after the full time whistle and seemed okay.  Maupay and Martinez had their own little playground spat that ended up with Kamara getting a red card for hands to the throat of a Brentford player.  All most unsavory.

Meanwhile...

Man City continue to show cracks as they coughed up a 2-0 lead, at home no less, and could only manage a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace.  Liverpool basically ran roughshod over Man United but only managed a 0-0 draw for their efforts.  Arsenal were more clinical, dispatching Brighton 2-0 to move back to the top of the table.  Spurs survived the sending off of Yves Bissouma (who is now out for four matches) in a 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest.

Everton grabbed another three points with 2-0 win over Burnley and keep moving farther away from the relegation zone.  Chelsea were more than happy to add to Sheffield United's woes, beating the Blades 2-0 and finally making it to the top half of the table.  The biggest gap in the table is now the five points between 17th place Forest and the bottom three of Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United.

Christmas Cards

The weekend saw 39 yellow cards and five red cards.  Brentford - Aston Villa were responsible for 10 yellows and two reds as discipline was in short supply for that one.  Yellow cards are up from 3.62 last year to 4.53 this year so the weekend harvest is actually slightly below average.  But the five reds is way above the average of .2 per game.  Stats may be evening out a bit from earlier in the year, as we're seeing more matches where a red card means you lose; still the record so far is 12 wins, 7 draws and 16 losses.  

We're building a data base on this year's red card stats, partly in response to the idea being thrown about to move from red cards to a "sin bin" concept where the offending player is sent off for a period of time rather than whole game.  The concept is discussed in this article, (scroll down to This...Might Work), sent along by BFS Scandanavian Correspondent Jurgen B Sari (aka Philip S). Some random stats from the data so far include:

- 37 red cards have been shown

- 35 games have had at least one red card (we count Brentford - Aston Villa twice because     each team got one)

- 8 of 37 red cards were shown after 90 minutes

- 30 goals have been scored after red cards by the team with the advantage

- in 18 of the 35 games, the team with the advantage has scored at least one goal

- 11 of the 30 goals have been scored within 10 minutes of the sending off but that includes  4 where the red card resulted in a  PK so the sending off wasn't the real reason for the goal

- 10 goals have been scored by the team down a man

- in 9 of the games the shorthanded teams have scored; 

For the 35 games, 15 times the team with the advantage got more goals, 5 times it was the team down a man that got more goals and 15 times it was even.  If I have my math right, 51% (18/35) of the time, the sending off results in at least one goal for the team with the advantage.  If we limit the sending off to 10 minutes, that advantage drops to 31% (11/35); it falls to 20% (7/35) if we exclude the PK situations.  All kinds of trade-offs.  Will refs be more likely to signal for serious offenses?  Will players be more likely to commit them knowing the sending off is temporary?  My first thought is we leave well enough alone. 

Cooper "Beats" ten Hag

With Nottingham Forest winless in their last 13 matches, sitting in 17th place, Steve Cooper was sacked this week.  This is clearly another case of we appreciate your past service to the club but what have you done for us lately.  Cooper took over in September 2021 with Forest sitting dead last in the Championship Division.  He only took them to the promotion playoffs and with a win over Huddersfield got them into the Premier League.  They managed to avoid relegation last year but only by four points; this year certainly looked like it was going to be a struggle too.  Nuno Espirito Santo, late of Tottenham, will take over.

You Think You Had A Bad Month

Mudryk takes advantage of Trippier's misplay

Recall that the normally solid Kevin Trippier had a tough match a few weeks ago against Everton, as his mistakes led directly to two goals in the 3-0 loss to the Toffees.  He had another tough day in the Caraboa Cup quarterfinal vs Chelsea.  With the Magpies clinging desperately to a 1-0 lead in stoppage time, he misplayed a ball in the box that Mudryk was only too happy to bury for the equalizer.  Fast forward to the penalty kick phase (they don't play extra time at this point in the competition) and we see Trippier send his shot wide left.  Chelsea ended up advancing 4-2 on kicks.

To be fair, this was not a great effort from Newcastle anyway.  They were easily dispossessed many times, outphysicalled for most of the match and got their goal on a lucky break for Callum Wilson.  It only feels sucky because they were so close to coming away with the win anyway.  As with the exit from the Champions League, we are not particularly disappointed as this team doesn't need any extra games at this point.

The semis will feature Middlesborough vs Chelsea and Liverpool vs Fulham on Tuesday January 9th.  See what I mean - it would have been another mid-week match for the Magpies to manage.

MLS - One Step Up, Two Steps Back

On the positive side, the MLS just adopted some rule changes relating to substitutions and injuries.  Details can be had here.  My two favorite are the requirement that if you're being substituted you have to be off the field in 10 seconds or your replacement has to wait a minute before coming on.  The second is that if you required more than 15 seconds of treatment on the field for an injury, you have to wait two minutes before you can come back on.  If this works in convincing more players they don't need medical attention, I think we ought to explore how we could adapt the concept to the general population as way to reduce health care costs.

On the other hand, the arrogance of the MLS leadership continues to shock.  Last week, they announced that MLS would no longer participate in the US Open Cup but would instead send their development teams.  Details are here.  This is akin to the Premier League teams saying they would not participate in the FA Cup but would instead send their U-23 squads.  Before proceeding to completely trash the leadership, I will offer a few mitigating points.  In fact, many MLS teams do depend heavily on their reserves for early rounds of the Cup.  Second, it's not just management that isn't enamored of this competition.  In an interview last June, MLS Player Association Executive Director Bob Foose was quoted as saying "I can tell you that the US Open Cup is certainly not something our players look forward to."

One of the main issues cited was schedule congestion and how ditching the Cup competition opens up six match windows.  Well, it wouldn't be so crowded if you hadn't introduced the Leagues Cup that shuts down the regular season for six weeks.  Ah, but the difference is MLS has control over the media rights and money for that competition, unlike the US Open Cup.  This article by James Nalton in The Guardian gets to the heart of the matter.  Here's the money paragraph:

By removing itself from the Open Cup, MLS is attempting to control the story of Messi in US soccer by limiting Messi Mania to its own in-house marketing. In doing so, it denies those outside MLS – from broadcasters to lower league teams to fans – the chance to ride the Messi soccer wave. This is more evidence that the focus of MLS is now on growing itself rather than the sport in the country as a whole.

Reaction has been swift, similar to the outrage that immediately erupted at the announcement the Super League in Europe a few years ago.  USSF has told MLS that it cannot unilaterally withdraw from the competition.  So this may continue to play out over the next couple of months.

Super League Back From the Dead

Thanks to this ruling by the European Court of Justice, efforts to create a Super League are ramping up.  The new proposal talks about a 64-team competition that would replace the Champions League, with two 16-team higher tier leagues and a 32-team lower tier league.  There would be promotion/relegation between the leagues and access to the lower tier would be based on performance in domestic leagues.  I'm not opposed to a restructured European competition as long as participation isn't guaranteed by "birthright" (i.e. market power).  Hard to know yet if this new proposal is really a meritocracy.  It is notable that many of the clubs from the previous attempt are saying they aren't interested and will only go with UEFA sponsored competitions.

Let the Games Begin

So with 18 matches between Friday and next Thursday, there's gotta be some good stuff, right?  Well sort of.  The biggest contest of the period is Liverpool - Arsenal as Saturday's 12:30 NBC feature match; yeah, 1st vs 2nd qualifies as a feature fixture.  Opta has Liverpool as clear favorites at 47/27/26.  The other match we have our eyes on is Aston Villa hosting Man United at 3 pm on Boxing Day on USA.  Here's another test of Villa's bona fides as a title contender.  No data from Opta available for the mid week matches but we like Villa's chances here.

That's pretty much it on the top end.  There is a key relegation match up between Sheffield United and Luton Town on Boxing Day at 10 am on Peacock.  That might be more interesting than the alternative Bournemouth - Fulham on USA.  

We'll also recommend West Ham vs Man United, Saturday morning's 7:30 am match on USA.  This could be close, as both teams have been in the Dr. Jekyl - Mr. Hyde mode all season.

Newcastle have two matches which we might normally consider easy but with injuries and fatigue, might not be so inviting.  Saturday the Magpies take on Luton Town in one of the 10 am matches (the USA one actually - we would have put Spurs - Everton in that role) and Tuesday they open up the Boxing Day festivities at 7:30 hosting Nottingham Forest.  Should be six points but we'll see.

Besides the Man United match, Aston Villa start the holiday weekend off with a Friday 3 pm home match against Sheffield United.  Sounds like three points to me.

There are a couple of London Derbies that could be fun. Chelsea host Crystal Palace on Wednesday at 2:30 (Peacock) and Arsenal and West Ham square off on Thursday at 3 pm (Peacock).  

The full schedule is here if you want to customize your holiday viewing.

Will be interesting to see who sits atop the table this time next week.

Running On Empty

apologies to Jackson Browne

You can only put the same 11 players out there every match so many times before they end up "running on empty."  Newcastle found that out in the 4-1 loss away to Spurs.  The line-up wasn't bad, it was just gassed.  That's all we'll say about Saturday.  Well, except maybe that Spurs played pretty well so it wasn't just we were tired.  But did Richarlison have to get two?

All For the Best

Tired and dejected; I think this is at the end of the 
Milan match but they are starting to look the same

Newcastle's other match for the week was also a loss, 1-2 to AC Milan in the final Champions League group stage match.  This was all four seasons in one match, except there were only three seasons.  Up 1-0, the Magpies were second in the live table and looking at advancement to the knockout phase of Champions League.  At 1-1, they were third in the table and the "soft landing" to the knockout phase of Europa League would be their fate.  At 1-2, they finish bottom of the group and are done with Europe for the year. 

I believe this is for the best.  They were very competitive and arguably deserved a draw.  This was nothing like the moribund squad we saw in losses to Everton and Tottenham, even though there was only one change in the starting XI (Wilson for Isak).  But, even recognizing that the knockout phases of these competitions don't start until January when a few more of the injured players might return, I think we've seen enough to know that this team isn't quite good or deep enough to be able to compete in multple competitions that include mid-week contests.  I will be happy to see them with a few fewer fixtures and the energy to focus on the league.  Thus far the club has been mostly measured in building a better squad and additional pressure of Champions League or Europa League might have caused them to abandon that patience.  Yeah, I can rationalize anything.

Spin Doctor Please

What does it say about Aston Villa that they come up with less than their best effort against second place Arsenal yet still walked away with a 1-0 win? The xG (.67 - 1.47 favor the Gunners) suggests maybe some luck or maybe that Martinez is worth every penny in goal for Villa.  Or what if this team might just be good enough to contend?  As Dennis noted:

If Villa were City, the analysis would be that these are the tough wins you need to win a title

He might be right.

Double Jeopardy?

Dyche has Everton out of the relegation
zone for the moment; also maybe the shiniest
shoes of any manager in the league

Chelsea were the latest to find out how fierce Everton are right now.  They struggled mightily against the Toffees and eventually went down 2-0 at Goodison Park.  That's three straight wins for the Everton and three straight clean sheets.  So they've gotten back nine of the ten points deducted for FFP violations; even with the deduction they are now four points clear of the relegation zone.  They'd be 10th in the table without the penalty.  

That's the good news.  The bad news is that they could be headed for a second docking of nine points.  The problem is they have been depending on loans from a potential purchaser to keep going.  Absent those funds, the club would likely be at risk of administration (bankruptcy on this side of the pond) and would face another nine point deduction.  Delays in approving the sale are putting those funds in jeopardy, though based on this article, it sounds like maybe they'll be okay.

You Can't Play Chelsea Every Week

Erik ten Hag didn't have a good week.  Though the 3-0 final may be a bit misleading, Man United did not distinguish themselves at home against Bournemouth (another side I'd rather not play right now).  They did have much of the possession and got off 20 shots, but only three were on target; xG was 1.26 - 1.57.  Fast forward to Tuesday at home against Bayern for the Champions League group stage match they had to win to have a shot at making the knockout phase.  The Red Devils came up very flat.  Though the final was just 0-1 for Bayern, they were clearly outplayed.  Paraphrasing Paramount commentator Peter Schmeichel here "it looked they had no chance of scoring."  Well, they did manage one shot on target.  So ten Hag finds himself neck-and-neck with Nottingham Forest's Steve Cooper as the manager most likely to be sacked right now.

Better Late Than Never

Liverpool have six second half stoppage time goals in their 15 matches that have netted them an extra seven points.  If we extend it to the 80 minute mark, we add three more goals and another four points.  Looking at it from the other side, they've only dropped one point from the 80th minute on.

What She Said

Welch has done Championship and FA Cup matches
PA Wire/Adam Davy

The EPL will have its first woman in the center for the Burnley Fulham match on Saturday December 23.  Rebecca Welch has been a referee since 2010 and worked her way up the ladder.  Details are here.  Note also in the article that the EPL will have its first black referee since 2008.  Sam Allison will be just the second black to work the center in the EPLs history when he covers the Sheffield United - Luton Town match on Boxing Day.

MLS Cup (ertino)

The MLS season came to an end with an okay if not thrilling 2-1 win for Columbus over LAFC.  Certainly no LAFC - Union match like last year's final.  

This may go down as the year that Apple did massive damage to the MLS brand.  In the admittedly small sphere of fans here in Northwest Philly, that is the consensus.  I recognize that the Union's dropoff in performance from the last few years could be a factor in our assessment.  However, many of us went through the lean years with the Union without our overall interest in the league flagging this much.

Apple took away our excellent home team broadcasting crew, required us to pay extra to see our own team's matches on TV, was likely responsible for the six-week interruption in league play to have the Leagues Cup (more product for the Cupertino Broadcasting Company), and was also likely the reason for an interminable playoff period.  I'm sure I'm forgetting something in that list.  What do we think of a league that could only generate serious interest by importing Lionel Messi?  He had a great run in the Leagues Cup but then got injured and Miami never made it to the playoffs.  How his presence plays out next year remains to be seen.  The league currently has 29 teams, will be adding San Diego in 2025 and may be heading to 32 in the near future.  I don't see how that helps the situation.  I think it just makes the league even harder to follow.

This article in Forbes suggests maybe I am an outlier as the MLS is doing better as business.  Attendance is up, social media traffic is up, and merchandising is up.  Maybe I'm just the wrong demographic.  On the other hand, I haven't seen any data on viewership for MLS Season Pass.  So maybe we really don't know how things are going. Color me skeptical.

On the Road Again

Family trip this weekend means limited viewing.  I will not be the guy who yells "GOOOAAAAALLLL" in the middle of the wedding ceremony.  

The weekend gets an early start with Nottingham Forest hosting Spurs at 3 pm Friday on USA.  That does sound like a match for Spurs to build on their win over Newcastle.  No 7:30 fixtures Saturday morning but four to choose from at 10.  TV has Man City - Crystal Palace, which doesn't look all that competitive even given City's recent un-City form.  Newcastle have Fulham; we would normally be optimistic about this match but the Cottagers come to town off consecutive 5-0 wins over West Ham and Nottingham Forest.  Other choices are hot Bournemouth hosting Luton Town or Chelsea vs Sheffield United at Stamford Bridge.  The NBC "feature" match at 12:30 is Burnley - Everton; Dyche can't match Kompany's sartorial splendor (except for maybe the shoes) but you wonder if Eveton's recent form will be too much for Burnley.  Opta does have this as the closest match of the weekend at 35/30/35.

Four more games on Sunday.  We would go with Brentford - Aston Villa as the 9 am choice but others might be drawn to Arsenal - Brighton (the TV game) or West Ham - Wolves.  The 11:30 match - a good one between Liverpool and Man United - is on NBC for some reason.

The Carabao Cup quarters are this Tuesday and Wednesday.  Since Newcastle are still in it, we still care about it, a little anyway.  Tuesday is Everton - Fulham and Port Vale - Middlesborough.  Wednesday is Chelsea - Newcastle and Liverpool - West Ham.  Hmm, one of these is not like the others.  

Also, there's a random Thursday EPL match at 3 pm between Crystal Palace and Brighton.

Plenty to watch as you wrap presents.

Mans Down

Mostly overwhelmed by the volume of results, which means I resort to my trusty stand-by of random observations from the two matchweeks.

Manchester Parlay

Newcastle and Aston Villa had matching 1-0 wins over the Manchester franchises.  In both cases, the final scores flattered the losers.  In their win over Man United, Newcastle outshot them 22/8, shots on target were 4/1 and xG was 2.90/.42.  United really only threatened in the final 10 minutes.  The replacements - Livramento, Lascelles and Miley - continue to impress.  The downside was that Nick Pope separated his shoulder late in the match and will likely miss about four months after having surgery.

Aston Villa were possibly more dominating.  They outshot City 22/2, with shots on target 7/2 and expected goals 2.19/1.  I do remember a big save Martinez so City did threaten at least once but Villa hit the post once and had several other good chances as well.   They were simply the better side.

We'll gloss over that neither won their other match this week.  A clutch header from Ollie Watkins in the 90th minute allowed Villa to sneak out of Bournemouth with a 2-2 draw.  Newcastle were nowhere near that fortunate in a 3-0 loss to Everton at Goodison Park.  Neither side played very well but the Toffees displayed more passion in their play and the win was totally deserved.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve (after Nick Pope picks up separated shoulder like teammate Jacob Murphy): How many teams have two players out with separated shoulders?

Dennis: How many have one?

McNeil Leads Everton Out of the Drop Zone

Everton are not taking their point deduction lying down, on or off the field.  Their appeal has been filed and they've won two matches in a row.  Dwight McNeil was key in both.  Here is his laser from the left side of the box that was the difference in the 1-0 win over Nottingham Forest.  He followed it up with this rocket to put Everton up 1-0 late against Newcastle.  Yes, they added two more but his blast was the killer that sent them on their way.  

The only other sides to win both games this were were Arsenal and Liverpool, though perhaps not as easily as we predicted.  The Gunners underwhelmed in a 2-1 win over Wolves, then needed a 97th minute header from Declan Rice to snatch a 4-3 win against Luton Town.  Reluctantly, we make Rice's goal this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Similarly, Liverpool needed an 88th minute goal from Trent Alexander-Arnold to complete a last minute comeback against Fulham.  You can see the strike here.  They followed up with a workmanlike 2-0 win over relegation fodder Sheffield United.  As expected, Arsenal and Liverpool stay 1-2 in the table.

Heck of A Game Plan

I wish I could have been in the Burnley dressing room to hear Vincent Kompany lay out the strategy for their relegation contest with Sheffield United.  "Okay guys, here's what we do.  First, score in the opening 13 seconds.  Then get a second one quickly,  Then get one of the Sheffield United defenders sent off just before half time."

Though it ruined what we had expected to be a tight match, it certainly worked out okay for Burnley as they cruised to a 5-0 win and lifted themselves out of the basement.  I don't know if he tried the same speech on Wednesday but they went down 0-1 to Wolves.  

The game winner in that match came from Hwang Hee-chan.  Don't look now but he's tied for fourth on the scoring table: 

1. Erling Haaland, Manchester City — 14
2. Mohamed Salah, Liverpool — 10
3. Heung-min Son, Tottenham — 9
4. Jarrod Bowen, West Ham United — 9
5. Ollie Watkins, Aston Villa — 8
6. Hee-chan Hwang, Wolverhampton Wanderers — 8

Mr. Haaland's O-fer (apologies to Richard Dreyfus)

Haaland erupted but not with goals

After being held scoreless in consecutive matches, Erling Haaland saw his Premier League goals per game sink to 1.00.  He's now at 50 goals in 50 matches.  He did find time to lose his sh get excited near the end of the 3-3 draw with Spurs when Simon Hooper blew the whistle for a foul rather than playing advantage.  Though Grealish was surrounded by three Spurs defenders, it looked like he might have had a breakaway on goal for a potential last minute game winner (which would have been crushing for Spurs, who had just leveled the match with a Kulusevski header).  From Hooper's perspective, he might have thought the pass wasn't going to be anything special so he whistled the play dead to give City the free kick.  Possibly the best play would have been for Hooper to wait a few more seconds; however, if he did so and the pass was the bust, he would not have been able to bring the play back for a free kick.  He probably would have gotten crap if that had happened too.  Also, it's possible that Spurs held up when the whistle blew, making it look more like an advantage than it really was.  Hard to say.

What is not hard to say is that Haaland blew his top.  Aside from getting in Hooper's face on the pitch, he later posted a short and sweet "Wtf" on social media.  So far, it looks like he will not face any sanctions, though the club may for the collective actions of the players swarming Hooper.  Guardiola, while making it clear that he did not agree with the call, was more measured, delivering a new quotable quote we might use going forward:

When asked about the incident, he said: "Next question. I will not do a Mikel Arteta comment."

Did You Know?

A couple of refereeing points from the weekend.  First, the ball is dead not when the referee blows the whistle for a foul but when he makes the decision that it is a foul.  Late in the Chelsea - Brighton match, Anthony Taylor called handling against a Chelsea defender in the box; the ball bounced off the player and rolled over the goal line before Taylor blew his whistle.  The handling call was overturned after the VAR sent Taylor to the monitor.  The restart was a dropped ball for the Chelsea keeper, not a corner for Brighton.  The announcers (and ESPN referee review) mistakenly thought this was a mistake.  But, the ball is dead when Taylor decides it's a hand ball, not when he blows his whistle.  So the restart is a dropped ball.

Which leads to the second point.  When play is stopped with the ball in the penalty area, the restart is a dropped ball for the keeper, regardless of why play was stopped.  That leads to the crummy potential scenario in which the attacker takes a shot, it hits the referee inside the box and goes into the goal.  Not only is it not a goal, it's a dropped ball for the defense.  That would piss me off but it is the law.  Put together with the previous point and you have the reason it was a dropped ball for Chelsea's keeper.

Let My People Watch

By every account, the Cincinnati - Columbus Eastern Conference Final was one for the books.  Too bad it was behind a paywall so none of us saw it.  Cincy held a 2-0 lead through 75 minutes only to see Columbus grab two goals (the second at 86 minutes) to get the match to extra time.  Columbus got the game winner in the 115th minute so it didn't have to go to kicks from the spot.  The other conference final didn't sound quite as exciting though it was close most of the way, with LAFC grabbing a 2-0 over Houston.

The good news if you're interested is that you will be able to watch the Columbus - LAFC final at 4 on Saturday on Fox or "free" Apple.  

Note that once again, the club with the best regular season record will not win the MLS Cup.   It's only happened in 8 of the league's 23 seasons and only twice since 2011.  

Another Solid Week

BFS sides again offer the big matches for the weekend.  Aston Villa host Arsenal at 12:30 on Saturday in NBC's feature match of the week.  On Sunday at 11:30, Newcastle will take on Spurs at St. James' Park on USA.

Saturday early birds can go for Crystal Palace - Liverpool at 7:30 on USA.  Crowded again at 10 am with no obvious choice.  TV went with Brighton - Burnley.  Bournemouth have been pesky lately so we might check them out against Man United.  Or you could go with Wolves - Nottingham Forest or Sheffield United - Brentford.

You also have choices Sunday at 9 am.  Probably skip Luton Town - Man City in favor of a London Derby (Fulham vs West Ham) or Everton hosting Chelsea.  Actually, given how ferocious the Toffees have been lately, that match with struggling Chelsea could be interesting.

Last of the group stage matches in the three European competitions.  Newcastle must beat AC Milan and hope that PSG don't beat Dortmund.  The good news is that a Magpie win and PSG draw is enough to advance given that Newcastle was better head-to-head against the French side.  That match is 3 pm on Wednesday.  Man United's prospects are even more daunting.  They must beat Bayern on Tuesday (3 pm) and hope for a draw between Galatasaray and FC Copenhagen.  Man City and Arsenal have already clinched first in their groups.

In Europa Conference League action on Thursday, Aston Villa can clinch first with a win or draw over Zrinski.  They could also win the group with a loss provided Warsaw does erase the Villans' goal differential advantage.

In Europa League, all the EPL sides will move to the knockout rounds.  West Ham face SC Freiberg needing a win or draw to clinch first.  Brighton play Marseille and must beat them to get first in the group.  Liverpool have already clinched first.

Heads up.  You get Monday off then it's six straight days, another Monday off, then games every day until Christmas.  Almost as good as an Advent Calendar.