Make It Up With Volume

Okay, so maybe it wasn't the best football we've seen, but at least there was plenty of it.

"Worst Boxing Day Ever"

I cannot dispute Dennis's characterization of 12/26/25.  Only one match on Boxing Day.  It was a disappointing match.  And, it was a disappointing match because Newcastle sucked.  Their attack was MIA in the first half.  In the second half they did find their footing except they couldn't put the ball into the net.  Man United didn't exactly overwhelm either but Dorgu's volley (seen here) was an exception.  It would be the only score of the game.  The lackluster performance left the Magpies 14th in the table.

Waiting for the Other Shoe To Drop

Joelinton celebrated his return to the starting line upwith a goal
 in the second minute (Getty Images: Chris Brunskill, Fantasista)

Tuesday's 3-1 win over Burnley was almost as frustrating.  Newcastle jumped out to a 2-0 lead in just seven minutes.  Then they lost the plot - as they are wont to do - and Burnley took over, cutting the deficit to one in the 23rd minute.  For the next 70 minutes, an equalizer from the Clarets seemed just around the corner.  They missed some pretty open opportunities.  Bruno finally put away the third goal at 90+3 on an incredible howler from Burnley's defense (seen here).  Minimal relief since the match was practically over at the point anyway.

The chances that Burnley missed seemed like high percentage shots to me so I was surprised to see that xG was 2.33-1.03 favor the Magpies.  There were some sweet saves by Pope, at least one shot off the bar and a missed wide open header; they must have been tougher chances than I thought.

Of course, three points are three points but to struggle this much against the 19th place side suggests that mid-table is the correct location for the Magpies.

Not Quite Almost

Uh oh, Ollie learned how to score again

Aston Villa had an interesting few days, looking for a time like they were going to get the official Red Ryder Carbine Action 200-shot Range Model air rifle with a compass in the stock and this thing which tells the time for Christmas.  Step one was an amazing but not totally unpredictable 2-1 comeback win at Stamford Bridge.  Pedro put Chelsea up in the 37th minute but Villa looked totally capable of recovering.  It did take a while but once Ollie Watkins entered the fray at 58 minutes, the stage was set.  A mere five minutes later, Watkins leveled the match.  The two sides traded chances but it was Watkins who came through for Villa with a tasty header in the 84th minute; it's an easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  This stood as the game winner and left Aston Villa three points shy of first place Arsenal in advance of their Tuesday fixture.  Though the win seemed deserved, xG of 2.08-1.35 in favor the Blues suggests Villa might have had some luck again.

On to London (back to London, wait they probably just stayed in London) for Tuesday's show down with Arsenal.  I didn't get to see the first half but Dennis's early report was that "both sides are going for it."  They went into the locker room 0-0 but I was a little worried that the stats showed Villa had no shots on goal and no shots of any kind after about 15 minutes.  Because Newcastle couldn't put away Burnley, I was late for the second half and by then Arsenal were up 2-0.  Villa looked like a team running on fumes so when Trossard made it 3-0, I declared the patient dead and moved onto Man United - Wolves.  Jesus added a 4th and Watkins got one in stoppage time for a 4-1 final.  Being realistic, it was cool for Villa to be so close to the top but it's hard to be too dismayed by this result. They had a streak of 11 straight wins, eight in EPL action, so they were due for a clunker.  Results elsewhere also meant the loss didn't really damage their top four hopes.  

Bad Christmas Ties

A Yuletide staple under the tree, ties were also prevalent (9 of the 20 matches) in the holiday fixtures.  Draws aren't always a negative but many of these have to be considered as dropped points for some of the top teams.  Prime examples include (ranked by predicted win percentage differential, as in Liverpool was 70.0% to win versus Leeds at 13.1% for a differential of 56.9):

Liverpool 0 Leeds 0 (56.9)

Man United 1 Wolves 1 (56.6)

Sunderland 0 Man City 0 (45.4)

Chelsea 2 Bournemouth 2 (38.0)

Crystal Palace 1 Fulham 1 (26.1)

Sunderland 1 Leeds 1 (20.1)

The Palace Fulham differential seems high to me given how close they are in the table but that's what Opta had.  In the second tier we have:

Brentford 0 Spurs 0 (18.7)

West Ham 2 Brighton  2 (16.7)

Burnley 0 Everton 0 (14.7)

For the record, Brentford was the solid favorite so Spurs are actually the side that stole a point there.  All four New Year's Day matches were draws, three of them 0-0.  Too much figgy pudding?

All of this served Arsenal well as they got wins over Brighton and Aston Villa while everyone in the chase pack was dropping points.  Actually, everyone in the league was dropping points.  They now lead by four points over Man City, six over Aston Villa and twelve over Liverpool.  

West Ham, Burnley and Wolves did pick up a point but they are still firmly ensconced in the bottom three spots, though Nottingham Forest is sinking fast.

Twenty More To Go

Two more sets of holiday fixtures to go with Match week 20 on Saturday and Sunday, then Match week 21 spread out from Tuesday to Thursday.

Newcastle have Crystal Palace at 10 on Sunday and Leeds on Wednesday at 3:15.  Aston Villa have Nottingham Forest at 7:30 on Saturday and Crystal Palace on Wednesday at 2:30.  Marquee matchups are Man City - Chelsea at 12:30 on Sunday and Arsenal - Liverpool at 3 pm on Thursday.  For those following the relegation battle, may we recommend Wolves - West Ham at 10 am on Saturday and West Ham - Nottingham Forest at 3 pm on Tuesday (the day's only fixture)?  

We'll be back next week with a tally of how each side did with their four Festive Fixtures.  With Opta's help, we'll even adjust for the degree of difficulty.