Bad Losses and Worse Losses

This was a week in which we discovered that Newcastle are probably not top six material and Aston Villa are probably not legitimate title contenders.  Also, Newcastle's already infinitesimally small chances for a quad dropped to zero with a Carabao Cup semi-final loss to Man City.

Liverpool Are Doing Fine, Thank You Very Much

With Ekitike, why the heck did Liverpool need to take Isak?
Photo: Getty Images

Turns out the concern we expressed for Liverpool in last week's post was very much misplaced, as witnessed by their 4-1 dismantling of Newcastle on Saturday.  The first 30 minutes or so were pretty good, with Newcastle having the run of play and eventually taking the lead with Gordon's goal.  It was pretty much downhill from there.  Ekitike levelled things at 41 minutes, then gave Liverpool the lead with another just two minutes later.  The rest of the match felt like "we're Liverpool and you're not."  Newcastle managed just two shots on goal and recorded an xG of .38.  So this wasn't even a matter of poor finishing, they just didn't generate the chances.  So we're down to 11th in the table.

You Think That's Bad?

Losing to Liverpool at Anfield wasn't fun but Aston Villa had an even worse weekend.  They were facing Brentford at home and got the added advantage of going a man up at 42 minutes thanks to Kevin Schade kicking Cash in the groin (remember that just because you got the ball doesn't mean it's not a foul).  So, of course, Brentford snuck one past Martinez late in the first half stoppage time and that  meant they were set up to park the bus.  Villa had 25 shots and an xG of 1.90 (maybe reflecting that they had just four shots on target?) but never broke through.  Well, that's not completely true, as they had a goal pulled back after VAR suggested the ball had gone out during the build up (more on that below).  It's easy to pin the loss on the injuries or the bad call but Dennis points out that 1) Villa have historically not done well up a man and 2) they don't do well against a parked bus.  Back-to-back home losses to Everton and Brentford diminish their title hopes.

Proper Use of VAR?

The ball looks out on this view

So the equalizing goal by Tammy Abraham was ruled out because VAR said the ball had gone out in the "buildup" to the goal.  You can see a longish view of the play here.  Looking on-line I see a lot of complaints about the call being unfair but haven't found any debate about the bigger issues the play raised.

Let's get one point out of the way.  A video available the next day shows that it's about 99.99999% likely the ball was out.  The picture left is a still from that video. Unfortunately, that's not really the point.

The videos we saw live, which we believe were the same available to the VAR crew didn't show anything anywhere near as clear as this.  How could you possibly view anything we saw as "conclusive" (looking at you Jamie Carragher)?  Second point is that the goal came 19 seconds after this incident; is that a reasonable time frame for a look back?  The review took almost four minutes, again suggesting that this was not a clear and obvious error.  And, regardless of what the video released on Monday shows, if this was not available to the VAR crew, it is irrelevant.  

One point that I will concede is that there is no way the AR had any idea of whether that ball was in or out.  You can clearly see that Leon Bailey is completely obstructing the AR's line of vision.  So, the AR and Tim Robinson were guessing when they made the on-field decision.  I suppose a second point in favor of the VAR is that even though this preceded the goal by 19 seconds, it was the play that gave Villa possession and the chance to go down the field and score.  

For me, I think it was a misuse of VAR.  But what do I know, I only got a 96 on my referee recertification test.  Dennis notes that this is down from last year's 98 and could be a sign of aging.  At this rate of decline, I will fail to get the required 80% when I'm 79.

Leads Are Like Rental Car Reservations

There are two parts - taking them and holding them.  As Jerry Seinfeld notes holding them is the more important part.  I was reminded of that difference this weekend as six sides took leads that they were unable to hold.  Some of the comebacks were more spectacular than others.  

West Ham's collapse at Stamford Bridge probably leads the way.  The Hammers were up 2-0 by 36 minutes.  Then it slowly fell apart.  Goals by Pedro and Cucaracha Cucurella leveled things by 70 minutes.  The unkindest cut of all was when Enzo Fernandez "hammered" the game winner past Areola at 90+2.  You can see the play here.

Man United collapsed at home to Fulham but ending up rescuing things with a late goal.  Up 2-0, the Red Devils surrendered goals at 85 and 90+1 and looked to have dropped two sure points. Benjamin Sesko rescued those points with this nifty piece of work in the box at 90+4.  So Carrick continues his perfect record.

Speaking of blowing two-goal leads, Man City coughed up such an advantage at Tottenham.  Check out Solanke's equalizer (his second of the match) at 70 minutes, an easy pick for this week's YouTubeableMoment (it's called a "scorpion" kick).  VAR had another interesting moment in deciding that Solanke did not foul Guehi in the process of scoring the first goal.  I thought maybe yes but maybe on this one they really did observe the "clear and obvious" threshold.

Other blown leads include Newcastle (Liverpool), Nottingham Forest (to Crystal Palace) and Brighton (to Everton at 90+7 - ouch). 

Quad Is Dead

Newcastle came to the Etihad for the second leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final against Man City with an 0-2 deficit.  They promptly turned it into an 0-5 deficit within the first 32 minutes.  Yes, it was a frustrating defensive display.  Equally as frustrating was their utter inability to put away good scoring chances. The xG says it was only 1.34 but it looked way higher than that to me.  Adding injury to insult, Gordon left the match with a possible hamstring injury.  But otherwise it went well.

Until that point, Newcastle were technically in the running for the quad (EPL, FA Cup, Champions League and Caraboa Cup).  The 1-5 loss on aggregate puts that nonsense to bed.

Caraboring Cup

The second leg of the Arsenal - Chelsea semi-final won the award for this week's match to nap to.  They managed two shots on target each while putting up a combined xG of 2.05. Arsenal came in with a 3-2 lead so they had no reason to force the issue.  I would have expected more of an attack from Chelsea though.  Pretty sure I had drifted off by the time Havertz scored for Arsenal at 90+7 to salt away the 4-2 aggregate win.

February Football

Didn't notice this last week but there are just three days in February (5th, 9th and 20th) without EPL, FA Cup, Carabao Cup, Champions League, Europa Cup or Europa Conference League action.

EPL Matchweek 25 gets an early start on Friday with a relegation special featuring Leeds versus Nottingham Forest.  Currently 16th and 17th respectively, both sides will have a keen interest in putting more space between them and 18th place.

There is the annoying 7:30 Saturday morning fixture but at least it's interesting with Spurs heading to Old Trafford to face Man United; hmm, one side enjoying a new manager bounce and another possibly ready to bounce their new manager. The 10 am slot is packed with five fixtures.  We'll go with Bournemouth - Aston Villa to see if the Villans can bounce back from last week's disappointing performance.  Relegation followers might choose Burnley - West Ham.  Masochists might go with Wolves - Chelsea or Arsenal - Sunderland; they reek of a blowout.  Fulham - Everton might not be too bad; they are level on points, sitting 9th and 10th in the table.

The feature 12:30 match is a pretty good one with Newcastle hosting Brentford.  Opta has the Magpies as a solid favorite at home (49/25/26) but that feels high to me, given the injury list.  Guimaraes is a maybe, a troubling development give that Newcastle have not won any of the 12 EPL matches in which he didn't start.  

Sunday's schedule is very light but interesting.  At 9 am we have Brighton versus Crystal Palace, two sides separated by just two points.  Even better is the 11:30 fixture of Liverpool - Man City.  The Reds are favored at home but not by much.

In place of European competitions, we have EPL Matchweek 26 played out over Tuesday to Thursday.  Tuesday we're locked into Spurs - Newcastle and that's probably the best choice for neutrals too.  Wednesday's choice is not obvious.  We'll probably go with Aston Villa - Brighton but the relegation-relevant contest of Nottingham Forest - Wolves has some attraction.  Thursday there's only Brentford - Arsenal.

Coming Attractions

I mentioned February is jam packed.  Wait, I think I'm required to say the matches are coming thick and fast.  We have:

- Champions League Playoffs are 2/17-18 and 2/24-25

- Europa Cup Playoffs are 2/19 and 2/26

- Conference League Playoff are 2/19 and 2/26

- FA Cup 4th Round 2/13-16

Also putting a reminder here that the Union start CONCACAF Champions League play on 2/18 with a first round match vs Defence Force (a Trinidadian and Toboggan club); the second leg is at Subaru Park on 2/26.  I loves me soccer in Philly in February.  Presumably the pitch will be snow and ice free by then.