Backing In

Classic Newcastle.  They could have simply beaten Everton to get a Champions League spot but instead lost 0-1 and had to sweat out Aston Villa's 0-2 loss at Man United.  The Union cough up another lead but then steal one back on Wednesday.

Drama to the End

Newcastle and Aston Villa contrived to create drama in the final 45 minutes of the season as they raced their way to the bottom (well, 6th place).  Villa won but barely.

With Man City and Chelsea on their way to wins over Fulham and Nottingham Forest respectively, Newcastle and Aston Villa were locked in 0-0 contests of their own versus Everton and Man United.  That meant they were level on points but Newcastle had a hefty advantage on goal differential so the Magpies still owned the last CL spot.  Villa's position looked the more suspect, as they were playing a man down after Emi Martinez got sent off late in the first half for DOGSO; plus, they had been thoroughly dominated in the first half.  Newcastle, on the other hand, had looked fully capable of scoring against Everton.

How about some love for Eddie Howe as Manager of the Year?

So of course, the Magpies yielded a goal in the 65th minute, not entirely against the run of play, which put Villa into the CL.  That position looked even more solid a few minutes later when Morgan Rogers took the ball from the Man United keeper Altay Bayindir and scored to give Villa a 1-0 lead.  Except that referee Thomas Bramall had called a foul on Rogers, believing the keeper had control of the ball.  More significantly, he had blown the whistle, which meant VAR could not get involved.  More on that (and the DOGSO below).  Things got worse for Villa when United scored a few minutes later.  Now they were back level on points with Newcastle and out of the Champions League.  A late penalty made the margin 2-0.  Meanwhile, Newcastle, probably with a sense of let's not completely back into this, had some more chances but could not break through and lost 0-1.  As noted football pundit Rosie Perez says, sometimes when you lose, you actually win.  Certainly Magpie fans would have preferred making it with a result in this match but it doesn't take away from the great campaign Newcastle put together.  

A $100 Million Call?

DSOGSO - Denial of Sort of Obvious Goal Scoring Opportunity
Hojlund can probably put it in the empty net (Photo:BBC)

So about those calls in the Villa match.  We'll start with the DOGSO on Martinez.  Matty Cash made an ill-advised back pass that was intercepted by Hojlund, who now had a clear path to the goal.  Martinez made the choice to basically block tackle Hojland right out of the play.  The call on the field was red but I wasn't sure about it at first.  The argument was that once Hojlund was past Martinez, the goal was wide open.  I wasn't convinced it was that easy.  The still shot (left) leaves me thinking it was probably the right call.

The one that caused the big stink was when Morgan Rogers nicked the ball away from keeper Altay Bayindir and slipped it into the goal for a Villa 1-0 lead.  Except referee Thomas Bramall had blown the whistle for a supposed foul by Rogers on Bayindir.  You can see the play here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  

The laws of the game are fairly generous about when the keeper is in control of the ball:

A goalkeeper is considered to be in control of the ball with the hand(s) when:

• the ball is between the hands or between the hand and any surface (e.g. ground, own body) or by touching it with any part of the hands or arms except if the ball rebounds from the goalkeeper or the goalkeeper has made a save
• holding the ball in the outstretched open hand
• bouncing it on the ground or throwing it in the air

• A goalkeeper cannot be challenged by an opponent when in control of the ball with the hand (s)

Bayindir is not touching the ball when Rogers kicks it away

Bayindir did have "control" at several points in the play but not at the moment when Rogers kicked it away.  A VAR check would have likely suggested Bramall go to the monitor, at which point, he would have seen his mistake.  But that was not possible because he had blown the whistle, which meant the ball was dead and anything that happened thereafter was irrelevant.  I saw some headlines that this was a VAR failure, which it was not.  The rules are very clear and I would be interested to hear a defense of using VAR after the whistle has blown; yes let's speculate on what might have happened had the whistle not blown.  The other criticism was that Bramall needed to hold off on the whistle to see how the situation played out, knowing he could use VAR to sort it out afterwards.  That would mirror the advice to assistant referees on keeping the flag down on close offside calls and reviewing the play afterwards.  I get it but sounds easier in theory than in practice when it involves a foul.  

As for the claim that the call cost Villa $100 million or more in lost revenue from not making the Champions League, I note that 1) United ran them ragged in the first half, 2) Villa managed just one shot on target and 3) xG was 2.94-.36.  Even if we give Villa a big chunk for the disallowed goal, they were mostly outplayed.  Also, there were plenty of dropped points along the way so enough of that argument.

Participation Trophy?

So Chelsea got their cup.  They came back from 0-1 to defeat Real Betis in the Europa Conference League final.  It is a UEFA trophy but as the third tier of European football, it's not clear if it really qualifies as a major award.  I know you can only win the competition you're in but they were in the lowest level based on merit.   Pretty cheeky stuff from a guy who's team 1) has one "major award" in 50 years (a Carabao Cup League Cup to boot) and 2) finished behind Chelsea in this year's table.  

Not Again

For the second time this month, the Union carried a one goal lead late into stoppage time against a key Eastern Conference opponent only to surrender the tying goal in the dying minutes.  Maybe this is on me for saying before hand that I would gladly take a draw.

I was so thrilled that I had tuned into MLS Season Pass when Quinn Sullivan scored this beauty to give the Union an early lead over Miami.  Even happier when Baribo added a second before half time.  I was apprehensive when Miami got one back but buoyed again when Baribo restored the two-goal lead, though I wonder how he was not called offside on the play.  The sense of impending doom grew again when Glesnes fouled Messi just outside the box.  Yep, he converted the kick and it's squeaky bum time again.  And there it is at 95 minutes, the tying goal.  The match was a great advertisement for the MLS - an exciting, mostly well-played contest, even if the result was disappointing.  And I'm still not buying the "I told you a two-goal lead is the most dangerous" argument.  If it had been a one-goal lead, the Union would have lost both of those matches.  

Much of the sting of that draw was eased when the Union made a comeback of their own on the road in Toronto.  Down 0-1 late, they got a brilliant header from Harriel off a Wagner corner at 87 minutes and then the game winner on a deflected shot by Wagner in stoppage time.  Game highlights are here; scroll forward to about 5:00 to watch the two Union goals.  Stats suggest maybe a draw would have been a fair result, though xG at 1.4-.9 does favor the Union.  So close to six points but also not far from just one point so we should take the four and be happy.  Nearing the halfway point of the season and the U are in first with a three point lead.  Everybody who saw that coming, raise your hand.  Right, that's what I thought.

How You Like Me Now? (apologies to The Heavy)

So what do fans of the various clubs think about their seasons now that all is said and done?  Check out this graph from the NYT:

I think this was before Chelsea's triumph in the Europa Conference League so their numbers might be a bit better.  Nine teams had at least 90% Very Satisfied or Satisfied, including Spurs(!?).  A little surprised that Crystal Palace tops the list but they did come on nicely at the end of the season.  On the other hand, the majority of Man City fans (nearly 75%) are not satisfied with a third place finish and a Champions League berth; success has certainly created expectations.  Note that Arsenal fans aren't exactly overjoyed with their season either, despite a second place finish and a deep run in the Champions League.  

  

New Keeper, No Problem

How many Bucknell grads does it take to win the Friendship Cup?
Two - Darren C and Dennis F 

Recall that Dennis's team, Sportif Allentown, was headed to Canada for the Friendship Cup minus their goalkeeper.  Apparently he thought Canada was already the 51st state and therefore did not need to renew his passport.   They worked out a viable strategy though - just don't allow shots on target.  This worked out well for them as they won all four matches  and came home with the Friendship Cup.  

Now What?

Well, there is the Champions League Final on Saturday between PSG and Inter.  For the third time in five years, I will be a wedding for the final.  Well, not just any wedding but BFS Founder Dennis F and Brenna C.  I've been asked to do a reading, which I believe is going to be a review of highlights of the CL Final for all those who missed it.  

The Union close out a busy but productive May with an away match at Dallas.  I will refrain from commenting on what result will make me happy.

Denouement

Down to the final weekend for the EPL with lots to play for.  All the other relevant sides got three points this weekend so not the best set of results for Newcastle.  Two more wins for the Union.

Still A Loss

There was much to applaud in Newcastle's performance against Arsenal on Sunday.  Unfortunately, the result - an 0-1 loss - was not one of them.  Shots were 14/12, shots on target 5/4 and most notably xG was was 1.89/.84, all in favor of the Magpies.  Certainly a draw would have been a fair result here.  

Silver lining was that with Newcastle facing Arsenal away and Chelsea taking on Man United at home, there was every chance the Magpies +4 goal differential was going to be wiped out and maybe even flipped.  Instead, with both results at 1-0, Newcastle retain a +2 over Chelsea, which could play into the final placings after Sunday's matches.

No Help Elsewhere

Everybody else in the hunt for the Champions League spots got W's.  Aston Villa had a very controlled 2-0 win over Spurs, Man City took care of Bournemouth, Chelsea got their win over Man United, and Nottingham Forest bested West Ham 2-1.  

The Arsenal win over Newcastle clinches second place for them.  Third through seventh remain wide open.  The scenarios are mind-numbingly complex and are explained here.  Some of the clearer points

Man City, Newcastle and Chelsea finish top five with wins

Man City finish top five with a draw

Newcastle finish no worse than 6th even with a loss (assuming it's not a blowout)

Aston Villa need to win and have some others lose or draw

Crystal Palace Hoist FA Cup

And basically destroy the hopes of Brighton and Brentford.  Distracted viewing means I can only recall two key moments - Palace keeper Dean Henderson not getting a red card for DOGSO and then Henderson making a PK on Marmoush to preserve the 1-0 win.  

The Turning Point? Henderson pushes the ball away from Haaland
Jan Kruger - The FA/The FA via Getty Images

First, the possible DOGSO.  Haaland was running onto a long ball over the top as Henderson came out to the edge of the area.  Haaland tried to play the ball but Henderson swatted it away from the Norwegian.  Good idea, except though he was still in the box, the ball was outside the box.   This little detail was missed by the AR so play continued.  VAR cannot intervene on that basis alone but the possibility that this was DOGSO and red card situation did offer the chance for a review.  The decision was that as the ball was going away from Haaland, you could not call this an obvious goal scoring chance.  Of course, the ball was going away from Haaland because Henderson had illegally swatted it.  The second part I guess is that we don't know exactly where Haaland's touch would have left the ball so again, the "obvious" part of the equation is tough to nail down.  The minimum correct call here would have been a free kick just outside the box but that was not an option for VAR.  

That Henderson was still on the pitch for the PK must have been particularly galling to City.  That he then saved Marmoush's attempt made it worse.  You can see the save here.  

In times like these, we do like to point out BFS First Rule of Refereeing, namely that the referee did not cost you the match.  Despite dominating with 23 shots and six on target, City did not score, even given the PK to do so.  Crystal Palace played them tough and earn the Europa Cup place.

It's A Major Award

Before proceeding to trash the accomplishment, let me acknowledge that winning the Europa Cup is a "Major Award."  There are eight group stage matches, three two-leg knockout rounds and then the final.  This is fit in between the regular EPL schedule, the FA Cup and the EFL Cup.  

However, it is still difficult explaining European football to the casual observer.  So you have this competition that pits the best of European club teams from different countries.  Well, it's not actually the best.  The best (top four in the case of the EPL) go to the Champions League.  And they qualify for this year's tournament based on last year's results.  So this year the two finalists - Spurs and Man United - struggled mightily sucked in the EPL.  In any other year, they would be fighting relegation.  But now, by virtue of their 1-0 win, Spurs qualify for next year's Champions League, despite their 17th place in the EPL.  It's actually easier to explain what happens on the dropped third strike in baseball.

Micky van de Van saves Spurs' bacon

Anyway, so they had this final.  The good news for Spurs is they found some defensive resolve when it
mattered.  Ben Johnson's barest of touches was enough for the only goal.  Actually, Dennis and I think it was really an own goal off the shoulder of Luke Shaw.   The biggest play though was probably Micky van de Ven's clearance off the goal line, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment, that preserved the slim lead.  Man United did mount a charge in the closing minutes, providing some of the most interesting moments of the match, but they could not break through.    

Free Parking, Primo Hoagies and a Union Victory

Sure it was about 50 degrees and raining Wedneday night but things couldn't have gone better.  I parked my Forester in the FREE Subaru parking lot which is much closer to the stadium than the lot we used to frequent.  Most of the concession stands were closed (I guess because it was a mid-week US Open Cup match?) so Jeff H and I wandered the concourse and discovered there's a Primo Hoagies stand on the northside.  Then the Union proceeded to defeat the Pittsburgh River Hounds 4-1 with a heavily rotated line up.  

Handling or not?  Tough call

We couldn't really see the handling that gave the Union an early PK.  With no VAR, the call on the field stood.  I found the picture from the match highlights; not sure I would have called that but also not sure that VAR would have enough to overturn.  There were also some times when the U just seemed to be treading water against a weaker opponent.  But they got the goals they needed and the 4-1 final felt about right.

That was their second victory of the week, having stymied Atlanta 1-0 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Saturday.  I only saw the highlights so can't tell you much.  Looks like fill-in keeper Andrew Rick has the same habit as Andre Blake - a key save somewhere in the match to preserve the Union lead.  With Columbus and Cincinnati playing to a 1-1 draw, the win puts the U top of the table.

All-time Keeper Howler

Dennis's team, Sportif Allentown, is off to Canada to defend their Friendship Cup title.  On the eve of their departure, Dennis informs me that their goalkeeper has let his passport expire.  D'oh.  Sounds like something that would happen to the Union.  

Up on the Roof (apologies to Carole King)

BFS Artistic Director Laura O sends along this clip that feels like the British equivalent of the kids from The Sandlot finding the treasure trove of baseballs in Hercules' yard.  

TVs, Computers and Phones

With so many meaningful positions in the table still unsettled, four matches are definitely relevant and two more could be.  All matches are at 11 am Sunday on the various NBC affiliated stations or Peacock.  We may end up with a game on the TV and maybe one or two on the computer and/or phone. We also note the schedulers seem to be more about the status of the teams as opposed to which matches are shunted to Peacock.  

Our choice will of course be Newcastle hosting Everton.  We like our odds here (68/14/18) and if they play like they did last week at Arsenal this should be a win.  Oh if it was only that easy.  Also, this match should be one of the TV games instead of, say, Liverpool - Crystal Palace or Southampton - Arsenal; seriously, neither of those matches has any meaningful relevance to the table.

For the neutral, we are torn between recommending Man United - Aston Villa or Nottingham Forest - Chelsea.  At least the schedulers got these right, as the former is on CNBC and the latter on USA.  Opta likes Villa, even at Old Trafford (52/25/23) and that seems right.  Chelsea are also favored on the road but not as much (43/32/25).  Brighton and Brentford certainly care about both of these matches as Chelsea must lose and Villa win or draw for 8th place to have any shot at next year's Europa Conference League.  In theory Man City - Fulham also matters but does anybody see the Cottagers taking all three points here?

Brighton will secure the sort of coveted 8th place with a win or draw over Spurs, who might still be hung over from their Europa Cup win.  Brentford need Brighton to lose and must beat Wolves at Molineux, which sounds like a tall order.  Of course, we won't know if 8th even matters until the matches are finished.

The Union get a stern test at Subaru Park Saturday night as they face Inter Miami.  The table says we're first and they're seventh, seven points back but I'm not buying it.  A draw would be a solid result here.

Don't forget Conference League final on Wednesday with Chelsea vs Real Betis

Better Odds to Make Champions League?

Everybody in the top 7 dropped points this weekend except Newcastle and Aston Villa.  Union delivered exactly what we hoped against Columbus - dammit - though they did come through mid-week.

Signature Win

Well yeah, if your trademark is to get three points when you don't look like the best team on the pitch.  The scoreboard says the Magpies beat Chelsea 2-0 but it did not feel that way at all.  Things started out well enough and included a great goal from Tonali, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment. They were the better team until they went up a man at 30 minutes.  From then on, they were second best.  The second half was terrible.  You would have thought Newcastle were down a man.  They couldn't string together a series of passes, were easily dispossessed and rarely won the loose ball.  Bruno's goal at 90 minutes meant that stoppage time wasn't scary but that was small consolation after watching nearly an hour of ineffective football.  Fair reporting requires me to note that final score is not terribly out of line with xG, which was 1.62-.67 favor Magpies.  Most of that 1.62 must have occurred before the sending off because this felt pretty one sided.  

Reading this, I realize it sounds pretty sour for a guy who's team just got a big win and now sit in third place.  Sorry about that but Newcastle didn't exactly look like a Champions League quality team despite the securing the important win.  I will try to cheer up.

Keep the Passports Current

As unimpressive as Newcastle were, Aston Villa couldn't even match that.  They walked away with a 1-0 win over Bournemouth in which the equalizing goal never seemed too far away.  Villa's goal, seen here, was the merest of touches by Ollie Watkins, though it may be fair to suggest it wouldn't have gone in without that touch.  The final 15 minutes or so were made even scarier when Ramsey got sent off for a second yellow at 80 minutes.  Like Newcastle though, regardless of the quality, the win moved them up to 6th in the table and guaranteed they'll be back in Europe next fall.  

It's Only A Rabbit

Surely Man City and Nottingham Forest must have been looking forward to notching wins this weekend as they faced the bottom two teams in the league.  Probably right, but please don't call me Shirley.  So how'd that work out?  Well, here's the pregame talk and some highlights from Nottingham Forest - Leicister.

Southampton defended ferociously 
against Man City

I kid, but only a little.  Forest conceded an early goal to 19th place Leicester but did rally on goals by Gibbs-White and this marvelous header from Chris Wood - his 20th of the season.  But three points weren't going to theirs as Buonanotte scored a late goal to get Leicester a 2-2 draw.  Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis was decidedly not pleased with this result and came out on the pitch to express his dismay with Nuno Espirito Santo.  The gist of the his complaint seemed to center around Forest playing the last 10 minutes or so down a man when Elanga had to leave with an injury after they had used all their subs.  Geez, since the draw assured Forest a place in one of next year's European competitions, a simple thank you to Nino might have been enough.  This was a decent watch by the way so kudos to Leicester for showing up ready to play.

Southampton did their best to get City the win, managing just two shots - none on target - and an xG of .11; not surprisingly, they failed to score.  However, even with 26 shots, 72% possession and an xG of 1.66, City didn't manage to score either.  A 0-0 draw with the last place side doesn't exactly scream "we belong in the Champions League."  Glad I didn't tune in for that one.

Arsenal probably don't feel as bad about their 2-2 draw with Liverpool. Maybe they had been hoping that the Reds were ready for the beach but that didn't happen.  The City draw took some of the sting away but the Gunners have not locked up Champions League yet.

Severance: Season 2 Episode 36

Spurs and Man United "innies" racing to get away from their "outies"

Spurs and Man United outies managed duplicate 0-2 losses.  Man United's loss to West Ham was especially damning as it allowed the Hammers to leap over both United and Spurs.  Heading into the last two weeks, Spurs sit in 17th with 38 points, one behind 16th place Man United.  Dennis notes that in a normal year, both might have found themselves in a relegation battle.  

Careful What You Wish For

The Union's two results - a 2-2 draw with Columbus and a 3-2 win over the LA Galaxy - are like a pair of fours on my golf scorecard.  You need to know the details to understand the journey.  For the first one (a difficult par 4), I hit a good drive, then put my second shot about a foot from the pin.  Birdie baby!  But no, I miss the putt and walk away disappointed with what otherwise should be a good four.  That's the Columbus match.  Nice efforts from Baribo and Westfield help the Union carry a 2-1 lead into stoppage time.  But they yielded a goal in stoppage time on a set piece.  I know I said I would be thrilled with a draw against first place Columbus but you didn't tell me that the Union would be seconds away from taking all three.  Trying to remember that this is a good result on a difficult par 4 against a top team.

On the other hole - a relatively easy par 4 - I hit a terrible drive, don't reach the green with my second, and the chip leaves me 25 feet from the hole.  Miraculously, I make the putt for the improbably par.  That would be the LA Galaxy match.  Two goals against the run of play, left the Union down 0-2 to the winless Galaxy side.  Harriel and Baribo at least got them back in the game with goals at 48 and 50.  Then, in the 96th minute Baribo heads in the game winner, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment - This Side of the Pond.  It says W on the scoresheet but it was way harder than that.  

Playing Columbus even and coming back froma an 0-2 deficit suggest that maybe this is a decent team.

Distracted Viewing

Off to New Hampshire to put my dad's ashes in the ground.  Up there, if you pass away after November 1, you have to wait until the following May for the burial.  

Just one match on Saturday - the FA Cup Final between Man City and Crystal Palace.  Good to get this final in the books because of its impact on the European placements.  A Man City win most likely means 8th place gets Europa Conference League; a Crystal Palace win means they play in Europa Cup and 8th place gets you a handshake.

For the league matches, still a surpising number that still have relevance.  Though the top 7 are set, the order from 2nd-7th is still up in the air.  And, by Saturday afternoon, we'll know if 8th place is still a target.

The week gets started early with two matches on Friday afternoon, both with significance.  Aston Villa host Spurs at 2:30 and Chelsea take on Man United at 3:15.  Villa and Chelsea are level on points but the Blues have a big goal differential advantage.  

Sunday will be very busy.  Another Sunday 7 am match but only friends and family will likely be interested in the outcome of Everton - Southampton.  Same with Leicster -Ipswich at 10.  But the other three matter.  West Ham host Nottingham Forest at 9:15, Brentford face Fulham at 10 and Newcastle travel to London to face Arsenal.  Yes, another trip to The Emirates, that "Little Shop of Horrors" for the Magpies.  Since its opening in fall 2006, Newcastle are 2-2-16 and have been outscored 10-48.  They are however on a one game winning streak there, having pulled off a 2-0 win in the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi.  A win would move them into second and guarantee a Champions League spot. 

There is Monday and Tuesday action as well.  On Monday, Brighton host Liverpool with the Seagulls clinging to faint hopes of Europa Conference League.  Crystal Palace take on Wolves with both teams packing for the summer.  Those games are at 3 pm.  Tuesday has Man City hosting Bournemouth with both teams vying for spots in Europe, albeit different levels.

Speaking of Europe, the first of the three finals is Wednesday at 3 pm with Spurs and Man United meeting in the Europa Cup Final.  Presumably, their innies will click in as they land in Spain (the match is at Bilbao) and we'll be treated to a good match.  A spot in next year's Champions League is on the line so they should be competitive.  Hmm, I wonder how "legitimate" their lineups will be on Friday for their league matches.

The Union get in two matches this week.  Saturday they are in Atlanta and Wednesday they are back home to take on the Pittsburgh River Hounds in a round of 16 contest in the US Open Cup.  Hoping to be in the stands for that one.

Working with a sketchy wifi connection up here in NH.  Hope this goes through.

Still In It

Not everything went our way but the week wasn't a disaster.

Unsurprising But Annoying Result

I didn't mention this last week but I was always concerned about the trip to Brighton.  We rarely do well there and Brighton were just as motivated as Newcastle to nail down a place in one of next year's European competition.  Thus, we were not surprised at all that the Magpies struggled to come away with a 1-1 draw.  

Third time's a charm; this PK call sticks (Photo:BBC)

What was annoying is that Newcastle arguably had the much better of play but simply could not put the ball in the net.  Possession was 55/45, shots were 13/5, shots on target 5/2 and xG 1.74/.7. Referee Craig Pawson tried to give Newcastle three PKs but VAR ruled out two of them, correctly in my opinion.  The first was a foul but it turned out to be outside the box and the second turned out to be a dive rather than foul.  At least the third one, for handling in the 89th minute, stood.  Taking into account the PK, the xG difference wasn't all the much.  And Brighton do defend well.  

The result wasn't much help to either team but it probably hurt Brighton more as Bournemouth and Brentford both got wins.

Useful But Boring Result

Yuri Tielemans scored in the 12th minute to earn Aston Villa a 1-0 win over visiting Fulham.  That's all that needs to be said except that I am so glad I got up at 7:30 to watch it.

Outies

Apparently, there is no Overtime Contingency that allows Spurs and Man United to play like their Europa Cup innies in EPL matches.  After big wins by their innies in Europa League last week, Man United and Spurs flipped to their outies right on schedule for their EPL matches.  Spurs scored early against West Ham but conceded the equalizer not long after and a 1-1 draw was the final; they remain a point ahead of the Hammers in 16th place.  Man United also scored first against Brentford, then conceded four unanswered goals before eventually falling 4-3.  They remain a point ahead of Spurs in 15th.  

Interesting But Confounding Results

The races for 2nd through 7th got more complicated after this weekend's fixtures.  Arsenal's 1-2 loss to Brentford combined with Man City's narrow 1-0 win over Wolves means that the Gunners are no longer a lock for second place.  Chelsea's win over over Liverpool combined with Newcastle's draw with Brighton is a lifeline for the Blues chances for a top five finish.  And slumping Nottingham Forest could only manage a draw with Crystal Palace, putting a serious dent in their top five hopes and maybe top six as well, given that Villa are just one point back now.  

Lucky But Welcome Result

I followed the Union's 2-1 win over Montreal on line, then watched the highlights and checked out the stats.  Seems like the U stole at least two and maybe three points.  After a 1-1 first half, on line all I saw was possession and shots for Montreal increasing the second half; I was fully prepared to see them take the lead.  Instead I was pleasantly surprised to see Uhre bag the game winner in the 84 minute.  Possession was 58/42, shots 14/8 and xG 1.8/.7 favor Montreal; the Union did have more shots on target at 4/3.  The good news is that it was the third straight win for Philly.  The bad news is that if you take a hard look at their performance in all three, you realize that they were a bit lucky in that 1) they didn't play all that great and 2) they were playing mediocre opposition.  We're nearly a third of the way through the season and I still don't have a sense of whether this team is good or not.  

The Union had a second match, their US Open Cup contest versus Indy Eleven.  They sent out a heavily rotated starting eleven, jumped to an early lead, then basically went flat.  Indy scored early in the second half and Carnell had to "unrotate" the lineup.  Though the U took control again, they did not score and the match proceeded to extra time, then PKs. The U squeaked by 5-4.  They will face the Pittsburgh River Hounds in the Round of 16 on Wednesday May 21.  

Champions League

Stay with for me a minute here, this is leading to a point.

Fact 1: I hate brussel sprouts

Fact 2: BFS Artistic Director Laura O is a great cook

Premise: If I don't like brussel sprouts even prepared by Laura, there's a good chance that I will never like them

Inter are going to the Champions League final

My point here is that if you watched the Inter-Barcelona Champions League semi-final and were not mesmerized, there's a good chance that you will never like soccer.  The first leg was crazy enough, ending at 3-3.  Inter took a 2-0 lead into the halftime lockerroom but Barcelona came back with goals at 54 and 60 minutes.  They looked like a lock to win it when Raphinha scored in the 87th minute.  Not so fast.  Francesco Acerbi tied it back up on the third minute of stoppage time.  You can see that goal here as this week's YouTubeableMoment Part I; yeah he got a yellow for taking the shirt off.  On to extra time and the 99th minute where Davide Fratessi scored the match winner for Inter.  You can see that here as this week's YouTubeableMoment Part II.  Okay, maybe the best view of the goal but this video does capture the emotion of the moment.  Best Champions League semi of all time?  The debate is underway.

The other semi-final is in no danger of making that list.  A sleepy 1-0 first leg left Arsenal needing a win in Paris.  And they certainly came out firing.  PSG can thank keeper Donnarumma for preserving the fragile lead in those opening 20 minutes.  Perhaps it was inevitable that the one-way attacking would leave the Gunners open to a goal against the run of play and it did indeed happen at 27 minutes.  Another goal at 72 minutes meant that Saka's goal at 72 was mere consolation.  

Outies!

This is getting too predictable.  The Europa Cup whistle blows and Spurs and Man United snap into their outie personalities.  Spurs took care of Bodo/Glimt 2-0 for a 5-1 aggregate win while United buried Athletic Club 4-1 for a 7-1 win on aggregate.

The two outies will meet on Wednesday May 21 for the Europa Cup title, which means that the EPL will have six in next year's Champions League.  Note that this does not change any of the regular qualifying process as neither of these teams will finish high enough to earn a place through the regular season standings.  

Chelsea, which don't seem to have a Severance issue, advanced to the Europa Conference League final with a 1-0 win in the second leg of their semi-final against Djugarden; the aggregate score was 5-1.  They'll face Real Betis on Wednesday May 28.  

The Race For Europe

Here is the updated analysis from ESPN on who can make one of the three European competitions next year.  The biggest news is that with the Spurs - Man United Europa Cup final, the EPL will have nine teams competing next year.  Ten is still a possibility if Crystal Palace were to beat Man City in the FA Cup Final.  However, if I read the article correctly, unless you qualify through some other route, you'll need to finish at least 8th in the EPL table to have a shot at Europe.

Matches That Matter

There are still some of those left.  In fact, 8 of the 10 matches have at least some relevance to spots in next year's European competitions.

The big one is Newcastle - Chelsea at St. James' Park Sunday morning at 7 am (?).  The two are level on points and goal differential, with Newcastle holding the advantage due to four more goals scored.  The winner takes a stranglehold on fourth place while the loser will be left to fight it out for 5th-7th.  

Second most important is Bournemouth - Aston Villa, the 12:30 feature match on Saturday.  Villa clinch at least 7th place with a win and keep themselves alive for a Champions League spot.  Bournemouth are currently 8th, which might be good enough for Europa Conference League, but a loss leaves them vulnerable to Brentford, Brighton and Fulham.  I am surprised to see that Opta has the Cherries as a slight favorite (41/34/25) for this one; I guess that's just the home field advantage.  

The Saturday 10 am slot has four matches that are relevant.  Fulham - Everton, Ipswich - Brentford, and Wolves - Brighton are still clinging to a chance at 8th place.  Man City have a perfect opportunity to bolster their hopes of a third or even second place finish as they travel to Southampton to face a team with two wins and five draws all season.  We'll probably go with Wolves - Brighton as that looks the most competitive.

The Sunday 9:15 slot has three matches but it's an easy choice. Nottingham Forest have a chance to stop the bleeding and maybe slide back into the top five as they host Leicester.  The other two matches have no relevance - Man United vs West Ham and Spurs vs Crystal Palace.

And technically, Liverpool versus Arsenal (Sunday 11:30) could affect the placements as the Gunners have not officially clinched a top five spot yet.  

Saturday is a big test for the Union as they host the first place Columbus Crew at 7:30.  A win would be enough to take over first but I'd be thrilled with a draw.

Matching 3-0 wins for Newcastle and the Union.  Uninspiring FA Cup semis.

Ten or Eleven Doesn't Matter

Newcastle were doing okay against Ipswich everywhere but on the scoreboard.  With the score still 0-0, the Tractor Boys decided to make it a bit easier by getting Ben Johnson sent off for a second yellow at 37 minutes.  The first yellow for a dive was maybe a bit harsh but the second was fair.  The Magpies got another break when Jacob Murphy was grabbed in the box in first half stoppage time and Isak converted the penalty.  Newcastle added two in the second half and the 3-0 final says it all.  Alas, it also means Ipswich are going back down to the Championship.

BTW, VAR official Matthew Wilkes has taken heat for his decision to send Michael Salisbury to the monitor on the Murphy foul.  You can see the play here.  Once again, the focus is misplaced.  Wilkes did not tell Salisbury to overturn his call, just to take another look at the play.  The decision to overturn is completely Salisbury's.  And how can you then take Wilkes to task for recommending the review when Salisbury himself, after the review, decided he got it wrong?

Action Elsewhere

Kind of a sleepy weekend.  Chelsea slipped by Everton 1-0 and Man United rescued a 1-1 draw with Bournemouth on a second half stoppage time goal.  Biggest news is that Liverpool clinched the title with an easy 5-1 win over Spurs. Brighton and Fulham kept their slim hopes for a berth in Europe alive with a 3-2 win over West Ham and a 2-1 win over Southampton respectively.

The other consequential result was Brentford's 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest.  With Newcastle, Man City and Chelsea all getting wins, Forest slipped from third to sixth in the table.  Their chances for a Champions League berth took a serious hit, though they still look good for one of the other two spots.

I Hate This Place These Places

Moyes: Get me the hell out of here
Photo credit:Imago

David Moyes ran his Premier League winless streak at Stamford Bridge to 20 matches with Saturday's 1-0 loss.  He's got seven draws and 13 losses over that span.  Additional research reveals that this is only his third worst venue!  In 20 matches at Anfield and he's got no wins and just six draws.  But his real "Little Shop of Horrors" is Old Trafford, where across 17 matches he has just four draws, or .24 points per game.  See the chart below for some other managers' nightmare locations.

Lowest points per game at away stadiums in Premier League (min 10 games)

Manager	Ground	GW	GD	GL	PPG
Harry Redknapp	Old Trafford	0	0	15	0
Mark Hughes	Emirates	0	0	10	0
Sam Allardyce	Emirates	0	0	10	0
Tony Pulis	Emirates	0	0	10	0
Steve Bruce	Old Trafford	0	1	12	0.08
Mark Hughes	Stamford Bridge	0	2	10	0.17
Roy Hodgson	Goodison Park	0	2	8	0.20
David Moyes	Old Trafford	0	4	13	0.24
Steve Bruce	Etihad	0	3	9	0.25
Roy Hodgson	Stamford Bridge	1	0	9	0.30
David Moyes	Anfield	0	6	13	0.32
Mark Hughes	Anfield	0	4	8	0.33
Harry Redknapp	Goodison Park	1	3	13	0.35

Note that with the loss to Chelsea, Moyes' record at Stamford Bridge ties him for 10th on the list with Harry Redknapp.

Meh

Two less than scintillating FA Cup semis.  Aston Villa never got untracked and fell 3-0 to Crystal Palace.  The match was so bad, Dennis suggested I could skip the replay.  I did go through the replay with generous use of the FF button.  He was right.  Man City - Nottingham Forest was no better.  City scored in the second minute and Forest never really threatened.  They only managed one shot on target.

Don't Break Out the Flippies Yet

The EPL's allocation for European competitions this year is:

Champions League: 1-5

Europa Cup: 6 and FA Cup Winner

Europa Conference League: Caraboa Cup Winner

However, given the high probability that the FA Cup and Caraboa Cup winners will finish in the top six, any team within shouting distance of 8th place should definitely not be breaking out the beach attire at this point.  This mind-numbing article from ESPN provides a more comprehensive explanation but key things to watch are:

1) Does Newcastle finish higher than 7th?

2) Does Arsenal win the Champions League but finish lower than 4th?

3) Does Man City win the FA Cup but finish higher than 6th?

4) Does Chelsea win the Conference League but finish higher than 6th?

I'm going with a definite yes for 2) and 3) but 1) and 4) are by no means sure things at this point.  Neither Chelsea nor Newcastle have an easy path to the finish and they face each other at St. James' Park on 5/11.  Let's say for the moment that Newcastle make the top five and Chelsea finish 6th.  So the top five would go to the Champions League.  Chelsea would go to Europa Cup (regardless of whether they win this year's conference league and so would 7th place (in Man City's place).  And, 8th place would go to Conference League in Newcastle's place. 

Note that up to 10 teams could make Europe this year.  Half the league makes it to "playoffs?"  What is this, the NBA?

Another Misleading Result

The scoreboard says 3-0 for the Union over DC United but that seriously overstates the U's performance.  They got opened up several times in the first half and were lucky to be up 1-0 at half time.  BFS Goalkeeping Expert Graham R, who attended the match, said they were better in the second half but still thinks the final score is quite misleading.  Expected goals, at 1.9-1.1 favor the U, backs his opinion.  The good news is they are getting results against bad teams.  The bad news is that the U probably aren't as good as their record.  May is a crowded month and includes matches against Columbus and Miami so stay tuned.

Just Keep Going

Full EPL calendar plus all the second legs of the European semis.  The chase for spots in next year's European competitions makes some of the EPL matches relevant.

We have a Friday 3 pm fixture between Man City and Wolves; who doesn't like Friday afternoon football regardless of who's playing?  The early 7:30 match is important, with Aston Villa hosting Fulham; this is probably win or give up on Champions League hopes for the Villans.  The two 10 matches might be contested in flippies;  we have Leicester - Southampton and Everton - Ipswich.  The "feature" 12:30 match doesn't excite either, with Arsenal hosting Bournemouth.

Sunday is more interesting.  Well, not the London Derby between West Ham and Spurs but the other two 9 am matches are relevant.  Brentford are still clinging to a shot at 8th place so they'll need to beat Man United.  The best choice is clearly Brighton hosting Newcastle.  That's probably the tightest match of the weekend, Newcastle need the points to solidify their Champions League aspirations and Brighton still have an outside chance for a spot in Europe too.  The 11:30 match - Chelsea vs Liverpool - is critical for the Blues, not so much for the newly crowned league champions.

Add in a Monday match with meaning as Nottingham Forest continue their fight for a Champions League spot with a trip to Selhurst Park to face Crystal Palace.  

For the European stuff, just reverse everything they did last week.  In Champions League semis, Arsenal are in Paris, down 0-1 to PSG on Wednesday.  Inter and Barcelona continue their epic struggle, level at 3-3; the replay of that first leg is worth checking out even if you know the result.  Here's a spoiler, Thuram's goal 30 seconds into the match, this week's YouTubeableMoment.

In Europa Cup semis, Spurs and Man United switched back to their "innie" versions and will take decent leads into the second legs.  Spurs handled Bodo/Glimt 3-1 and United went 3-0 on Athletic Club.  Chelsea also take a lead into the second leg, up on Djurgarden 4-1.  Those three second leg matches are on Thursday. 

The U are in Canada to take on Montreal Saturday at 7:30.

So football every day this week.  Woo-woo.