Company at the Top

EPL results conspired to make things much tighter at the top of the table.

Making Do

For the "Two Goal Lead Is the Most Dangerous" crowd, I will concede that a two goal lead is only one goal away from squeaky bum time regardless of how late in the game it is.  I will also suggest that squeaky bum time is a phrase that should not come up in a report about Newcastle facing Burnley at St. James' Park.  But there it is.

Things started out poorly, with Burnley having the run of play.  The Magpies found their game and started to take over.  Then, Guimaraes scored directly on a corner; here's the video of Bruno's Olimpico.  Add a Burnley red card for DOGSO and things are looking better.  Gordon slots a PK at 45+8 for a 2-0 halftime lead and this should be over right?  Alas, they never put in the third goal and although Burnley never really threatened the goal, this was not done and dusted.  The only way the Clarets were ever going to score was a foul in the box.  So of course Jacob Ramsey complied, handling the ball in second half stoppage time.  The PK was converted, leaving us with added stoppage time to fret over.  The match ended with an incredibly dangerous cross floating through the Newcastle box.  So much for coasting to victory.

Most of the stats say Newcastle dominated (exception is xG that was 1.82-1.58) but this one was always a dumb play away from being too close.  Fortunately that dumb play came late in stoppage time. Of course, there were positives to take away from this 2-1 win but all I can remember now is that we got the three points.

Conversation That Didn't Take Place and Probably Good That It Never Did

Dennis: Did you say you were disappointed in a cooking show you were watching?

Steve: No, I said the Gordon-Ramsey connection simply did not work for Newcastle.

Non-NBA Game of the Week (and Best of the Season?)

Cash Is Money: Matty gives Villa a 1-0 lead

Aston Villa - Arsenal was worth watching from minute one through second half stoppage time.  As we hoped, the Villans proved once again they can play with anyone and their 2-1 win was a thing of beauty for all except Gunners fans.  Matty Cash's 36th minute goal was matched by Trossard at 52 minutes.  Don't let the lack of scoring fool you, this was good back and forth football.  The game winner came from Buendia after a chaotic scramble inside the Arsenal penalty area.  I would have called it scruffy but Dennis would have responded "Who's scruffy looking?"  Anyway, you can see it here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  While the stats don't say that Aston Villa stole this one, they do reflect that it was a tight match.  The win put Villa into third and by beating Arsenal, made the top of the table more competitive.

NBA Game of the Week

The first half of Brighton -West Ham was awful.  The second half was a little better but even then, you could have waited until about 70 minutes to start watching.  Bowen got the Hammers on the board at the 73rd minute.  Brighton woke up and the final 20+ were exciting.  The Seagulls got the equalizer at 90+1.

Liverpuzzlians

What is up with Liverpool?  The chaos - on and off the pitch - grows.  First, they blew leads of 2-0 and 3-2 on the way to a 3-3 draw with Leeds.  Afterwards, Mo Salah, an unused substitute in that match, gave an interview that every media outlet labeled "explosive." (Think I'm kidding? Google Salah explosive interview.  Wait, the NYT called it "incendiary.")  Details can be had here.  The interview was littered with phrases like "It seems like the club has thrown me under the bus" and "Now we [Slot and Salah] don't have any relationship."  

The draw, along with Everton's win over Nottingham Forest, means that right now, Liverpool are the second best club on Merseyside.  

Travelogue

They let anybody in these days: Michael B and 
 Simon cheer Spurs on to 2-0 win over Brentford

Michael B was off to England to see Spurs in action at home.  Under the brilliant and generous guidance of frequent host Simon, Michael snuck in trips to various pubs and the Royal Albert Hall.  The football was good too.  On Saturday, Spurs were never threatened in a 2-0 win over Brentford; they allowed just one shot on target and an xG of just .38.  Tuesday was just as good with Spurs handling Slavia Praha 3-0 in Champions League league phase.

Elsewhere

Chelsea, still maybe reeling from midweek loss to Leeds, could only manage a 0-0 draw at Bournemouth.  Sunderland had no magic or luck to cope with Man City in a 3-0 loss.  We won't read much into that for the Black Cats since most teams lose to City anyway.  The win put City just two points behind Arsenal.  Crystal Palace climbed into the top four with a 2-1 win over Fulham.  Wolves lost but you knew that; they did score in the 1-4 loss to Man United.  

The View from Europe

Newcastle played well enough and got a 2-2 draw with Bayer Leverkusen.  They were probably lucky that Malick Thiaw didn't get a red card for DOGSO.  But they were unlucky that Leverkusen got an own goal of off Bruno's butt and that both Gordon and Murphy had shots slam off the inside of the post.  Arsenal smashed Club Brugge to stay in first, while Man City got a big 2-1 win over Real Madrid at the Bernabeu.  Liverpool put a temporary hold on their chaos with a 1-0 win at Inter.  Chelsea weren't so fortunate, falling to Atalanta 2-1.  

In Europa Cup action, Unai Emery comes off looking like a genius, trotting out a heavily rotated line up but still leaving with a 2-1 win over Basel.  The Villans are third in the league phase and have enough points to guarantee that they will at least be in the top 24 with a shot at the knockout rounds.

Groups of Death and the Like

At first, the US World Cup draw seemed very favorable.  They are grouped with Australia, Paraguay and the winner of UEFA Playoff C (likely Turkiye?).  Doesn't sound too scary does it? But, on further review, and thinking about what a Group of Death is, I don't like the US chances so much. Spoiler alert: wonkiness ahead.

For me, the issue is how hard is it to advance out of one's group, not how hard it will be to win it.  Also, the average ranking of a group doesn't seem like the best way to assess the competitiveness of a group.  It's more about how close the rankings are inside the group.  Thinking of extremes, a group of 1, 2, 37 and 40 would be easier to advance out of than a group of 23, 24, 25 and 26, even though the average ranking is weaker in the latter group.   So let's look a little more closely.  First, here's the raw data, with each group's composition and their world ranking.  

Note that I have assumed that the highest ranking side will advance out of the various playoffs.  Even before crunching the numbers, there are warning signs.  Group D has the second best ranked "3rd seed" and the highest ranked "4th seed" of any group.  They also have the tightest spread between first and fourth.

In the next table, I've calculated the "strength of schedule" for each team and the spread between those schedules within the group. 

Group D has the tightest spread across all four teams.  Only Group F is close.  I looked at the spread from 1 to 3 as well because the first two in each group automatically advance.  Group D is the second tightest there as well.  The spread from 2 to 3 is there because only the second place team is guaranteed to move on; Group D is tightest there.  Lastly, because in the expanded format, 8 of the 12 third place teams will advance, I looked at the 3 to 4 spread.  Group D is only fourth tightest there.  I'd say it's between Group D and Group F for the rightful label of Group of Death.  

As for the Group of Lollipops and Cotton Candy, I'd give that designation to Group H.  Spain and Uruguay look like locks to advance.  Germany (and probably Ecuador) should come out of Group E pretty easily.  There was initial buzz that England got screwed with its draw but that group looks middle of the road difficulty to me; call it the Group of 24 Hour Stomach Bug.  

In Case I Missed It

Oh darn, I forgot to watch the MLS Cup Final.  Hmm, the match featured 45 fouls and 10 yellow cards.  Was there any time for football?  Miami jumped to a quick lead in the 8th minute on an own goal.  Vancouver leveld in the 66th minute.  Miami retook the lead at 71 minutes and added another late in stoppage.  Stats are pretty close with shots at 8/11, shots on target at 4/4 and xG at 1.6/1.7.  So it was probably a decent match but I'm still not feeling like I missed something important.  I happily support the Union but MLS has done a crappy job of creating a larger product.

League and Cup

Saturday's schedule is very light.  Mixed feelings about the two choices at 10.  Opta says Chelsea should take care of Everton and Liverpool should beat Brighton.  Given the shaky form of both home sides there, I wouldn't write off either match.  Burnley - Fulham doesn't exactly sound like a fixture for the 12:30 feature match on NBC, nor does the semi-regular 3:30 match featuring Arsenal - Wolves.

Sunday at 9 on USA is the renewal of the Tyne-Wear Derby; though Newcastle did face Sunderland in an FA Cup match in 2024, this is the first EPL meeting of the two since March 2016. A little surprised that Opta has the Magpies at 50% to win and 24% to draw, especially away from home.  I'm biased but I still think it's your best choice for the 9 am matches.  However, some may prefer 2nd vs 4th in the form of Crystal Palace - Man City; Opta has that one at 40-36 favor of City with a 24% chance of a draw.  The other choices are Nottingham Forest - Spurs (playing without Michael B there in person), and West Ham - Aston Villa.  Sunday closes out with Brentford - Leeds.

Man United get another Monday assignment, this time taking on Bournemouth at home at 3 pm.

Mid-week we have Carabao Cup quarter finals.  Tuesday sees Cardiff City host Chelsea at 3 pm.  Two matches on Wednesday with Man City taking on Brentford (at 2:30) and Newcastle facing Fulham at St. James' Park (3:15).  Wait, where's the fourth quarter?  It's actually a week later on Tuesday 12/23 when Arsenal take on Crystal Palace.  That one had to be pushed back a week because Palace have Europa Conference League play on Thursday 12/18.  

A quieter week for most, except those in the Carabao Cup.

The Dog Days of December

A pile of results.  You know what that means...mostly random observations.  Get ready for the holiday fixture congestion as the EPL will cram in six more match weeks between this weekend and January 3/4.  If you're in a European competition add one more match and if you're still in the Carabao Cup, add another.  In total, Newcastle will play nine matches between 12/2/25 and 1/4/26.

Not Deja vu All Over Again

Already winning over fans with his defense,
 Thiaw got a brace versus Everton

After watching Malick Thiaw score in the first minute, then seeing Everton slowly take over the game, I was thinking I'd seen this movie before.  Newcastle wouldn't score again and would eventually cough up two goals for another 2-1 loss on the road.  Fortunately, the script had been sent back for a rewrite.

The Magpies survived their 20 minute power outage without surrendering a goal and started to take back the game.  I won't say they dominated but Lewis Miley's goal at 25 minutes was not against the run of play.  Not wanting to be greedy, I just hoped that Newcastle would get to the locker room with that 2-0 lead.  Better than that, Voldemorte's cheeky chip at 45 minutes made it 3-0 at the half.  Thiaw added another at 58 minutes to end any thought of an Everton comeback.  A late consolation goal from Dewsbury-Hall made the final 4-1.

I thought Aaron Ramsdale's appearance in goal was a tactical choice by Eddie Howe based on some sketchy work by Nick Pope recently but turns out Pope sustained a groin injury in practice.  We'll be interested to see what Howe does when Pope is healthy.  We were glad to see Dan Burn return to his day job as center back rather than continue to "moonlight" as a left fullback.  He's not awful out wide but can occasionally find himself outpaced.  Lewis Hall is the better option.

Newcastle did bring back parts of the old script for their Tuesday afternoon contest at home to Spurs.  At least the part about coughing up the lead.  They thoroughly dominated their guests but didn't score until the 71st minute.  Romero answered with an equalizer at 78 minutes and thoughts of a 1-2 loss swirled.  Deviating from the old script, Newcastle retook the lead after a foul in the box by Bentancur that was smartly converted by Gordon.  Opinion varies on whether Bentancur actually fouled Burn; at first glance it looked like it was mutual entanglement but the VAR sent Tom Bramall to the monitor where he decided that Bentancur was the guilty party.  Of course, that 86th minute tally did not seal the victory, as Newcastle conceded another equalizer at 90+5 on the most unlikely of bicycle kicks from of all people Romero.  Grr.  Reluctantly, we make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Spurs managed only two shots on target but managed to score on both.  

Seven points from the last three is an improvement for sure and the Magpies have climbed to 12th in the table.  But the lost points continue to mount up; they have dropped 11 points from winning positions.  This is not the path to the Champions League.

NBA Game of the Week

You know the adage, save yourself the time and just tune into the final minutes of NBA games because the first 40+ minutes don't matter.  Brentford and Burnley did that this week.  You could have skipped the first 80 minutes and still caught the keys plays, uncluding four goals in the last 10+ minutes.  The Newcastle - Spurs fixture got honorable mention in this category.

Playing to the Level of Your Opponent

Three Brighton defender were unable to stop Watkins
Neville Williams/Aston Villa FC via Getty Images

Aston Villla came away with six points over the two matchweeks.  They dominated an outmanned Wolves at home and barely came away with the 1-0 win.  On Wednesday, they quickly fell behind Brighton 2-0 at Amex Stadium, then roared (snuck) back to take a 4-2 lead.  Surrending a late goal meant an exciting finish but they held on for a 4-3 win.  Perhaps the best news there is that Ollie Watkins broke out of his slump for two the goals.  The Villans are now third in the table.  According to xgscore.io, Villa have the biggest positive difference between "expected" and actual points.  Based on expected goals scored and allowed, they figure Aston Villa should have 16.3 points compared to the 27 they do have.  Sunderland at 15.2/23 have the second biggest differential.  Whether this means Villa have been extraordinarily lucky, more clinical in the attack, stronger in defense or all of the above, we don't know but that's a differential that bears watching.

Non-NBA Game of the Week

The aforementioned Brighton - Aston Villa classic was the opposite of an NBA game.  You needed to tune in on time and watch the whole thing.  Fulham - Man City gets honorable mention in this category.  City had leads of 3-0, 4-1 and 5-1 before hanging on for the 5-4 win.

The Report of Sunderland's Death Was An Exaggeration

As Bournemouth jumped out to an 0-2 lead against Sunderland the Stadium of Light, last week's discussion about the how the Black Cats luck might be running out seemed apt.  Wrong.  Helped by a penalty, Sunderland leveled things by the 46th minute, then found the game winner from Brobby (at least the second late game winner for him that I know of).  The xG of 1.26/1.81 compared to the 3-2 final suggests their luck is still going strong.

Sunderland followed that up with a 1-1 draw against Liverpool at Anfield.  I didn't see the match but the stats say this was more luck for the Black Cats.  Possession was 66/34, shots 22/9, shots on target 6/5 and xG 1.39/.55, all in favor of Liverpool.  See the last line of the Villa report.

Sean Dyche Is Livid

Dyche was not happy with the VAR 
Photo by Molly Darlington/Getty Images

I would be too if VAR took over five minutes to rule out a goal for offside.  You can see the play here. Granted, this was a judgment call - not whether Ndoye was in an offside position but whether he interfered with the keeper.  Still, if the threshold is a clear and obvious error, taking five minutes to decide means it wasn't.  In this case though, I would argue that it was clear and obvious that Ndoye blocked the keeper's view so this should have taken about a minute at most.  Part of me wonders whether part of the review was whether to call a foul on the Wolves defender who can been seen wrestling a Forest attacker to the ground.  In the end, Nottingham Forest eventually did get a goal to win 1-0 anyway but not a good look for VAR.

Stuff at the "Top"

Arsenal  could only manage a 1-1 draw with Chelsea despite playing up a man for over 60 minutes.  Watching the game, it seemed like the Blues had the man advantage.  Also, massive amounts of shithousery included 26 fouls, seven yellows, the red card to Caicedo and endless histrionics.  The Gunners did get a 2-0 midweek win over Brentford.  Man City had narrow wins over Leeds and Fulham to close the gap with Arsenal to five points.  Chelsea probably not too upset with the draw to Arsenal but the home loss to Leeds will not go over well.  Five dropped points leave them in fourth, nine back of Arsenal.

Stuff at the "Bottom"

Wolves continued their potential record breaking season with two more shutout losses.  They are a 0-2-12 with seven goals scored in those 14 matches; they haven't scored since before Halloween.  Looking at xgscore.io, we can see that Wolves are the opposite of Aston Villa and Sunderland.  Based on expected goals, that site calculates Wolves should have 14.1 points instead of just two.  Burnley also came away with nothing in these two match weeks to remain in 19th.  A surprise point for West Ham in a 1-1 draw against Man United wasn't enough to move them out of 18th, since both Nottingham Forest and Leeds picked up wins.

Conversation That Didn't Take Place But Might Have

Dennis: Did you say that Arsenal fans are becoming more religious?

Steve: No, I said they are looking forward to the return of Jesus.

Messi vs Muller

I tuned in briefly to the two conference finals on Saturday and found I was overcome with feelings of "I don't give a crap."  That Miami and Vancouver were already up 2-0 on their opponents definitely contributed to that feeling.  Also, the 6 pm start time for Miami - NYCFC didn't help.  To quote Arlo Guthrie "there was a third possibility."  I don't follow the MLS, just the Philadelphia Union and when they are done, so am I.  Not proud of that but it may be a fact.

So the US pro league championship will be a battle between an aging German star (Thomas Muller) and an aging Argentine star (Lionel Messi), which Michael B points out is a replay of the 2014 World Cup Final.  Obviously there will be 20 other players out on the pitch but expect the prematch punditry to focus on those two (see right).  The match is 2:30 on Saturday on Fox and Apple.  Too bad it doesn't overlap the Eagles game; that would give us an excuse to avoid watching another excruciating performance from the Birds.

World Cup Draw on Friday

Tomorrow is the draw for World Cup Finals in whiche we find out who will play whom in the group stage.  Details can be had here.  You can watch live on Fox starting at noon.  The best thing about the draw is that it will begin months of speculation as to which of the 12 is the most difficult, the Group of Death as they call it.  As opposed to the Group of Flesh Wound, Group of Lingering Sinus Infection, Group of Athlete's Foot, etc.  

Busy Again

With Matchweek 15 running from Saturday to Monday and European stuff Tuesday to Thursday, we will have plenty to watch.

We will roust ourselves to get up for Aston Villa -Arsenal at 7:30 on Saturday.  Villa usually play to the level of their opponent so we're going to expect a good contest.  The 10 am slot is crowded (unnecessarily?) with five fixtures.  We will take in Newcastle - Burnley and hope the Magpies take care of business there; anything less than the full three points is a loss.  Other choices include Everton - Nottingham Forest, Man City - Sunderland, Tottenham - Brentford (London derby), and Bournemouth -Chelsea.  Maybe Everton - Forest is the best choice for the neutral as Sean Dyche returns to Merseyside.  We'll see how Sunderland's luck holds out against Man City.  The feature 12:30 match is Leeds - Liverpool.

Just two matches on Sunday (hence our question about why pack the 10 am time slot) with Brighton - West Ham at 9 and Fulham - Crystal Palace (another London derby) at 11:30.  The week concludes wtih Wolves - Man United at 3 on Monday.

Newcastle's opponent for Matchweek 6 of Champions League is Leverkusen away at 3 pm on Wednesday.  Not an issue for me but I suspect more will want to see Real Madrid vs Man City at the same time.  Arsenal get Club Brugge away, also at the same time.  Tuesday has Chelsea traveling to Atalanta, Liverpool away to Inter, and Spurs hosting Slavia Praha.  

Aston Villa travel to Switzerland to face Basal Basil Basel, which looks like another opponent ripe for the taking; probably another 1-0 win knowing Villa.

It's So Hard To Get Good Help

Turns out there is a reason that there are no Europe contests this mid-week - the Premier League has matchweek 14 running from Tuesday to Thursday.

Like Newcastle - Tottenham at 2:30 on Tuesday.  Brighton - Aston Villa Wednesday at 2:30 looks good too.  Thursday has Man United vs West Ham at 3 pm.

So contrary to yesterday's post, there is a full mid-week slate games.

BFS sincerely regrets the oversight.  Heads will roll.

Stuffed

Big win for Newcastle but the Union exit the MLS Cup playoffs. Mixed week in Europe for the EPL.

Somebody Left the Barnes' Door Open

I told Michael B that I anticipate the Newcastle - Man City fixture as much as my annual physical.  I forgot that sometimes the doctor says you're in great health and keep doing what you're doing.

Harvey Barnes Miss of the Year: If at first you don't succeed...

The first half ended 0-0 and the Magpies had given as good as they got.  Both sides had missed some
golden opportunities, none more painful than Harvey Barnes going wide from about two yards out.  Despite the strong performance, there was every reason to expect that Man City would still come away with all the points and that we would rue the missed opportunities.

Thus it was a pleasant surprise when Barnes gave Newcastle the lead at 64 minutes.  Alas, we barely had time to enjoy the lead as Dias responded a few minutes later to level things.  Barnes put them back up at 70 minutes after a scruffy looking play that required three plus minutes of VAR review.  You can see the play here as this week's YouTubeableMomentFiveMinutes.  VAR had to decide whether Guimaraes was off, Barnes was off, and Bananarama was fouled.  The answers were no, no, and no respectively.  More on that below.

City did not go quietly into the night and the visitors missed some pretty good chances of their own (looking at you Phil Foden).  The Magpies did hold on though to record their first league win against Man City since January 2019.  It was also the first time Eddie Howe defeated Pep in 17 league matches.  Newcastle do look a better side with Lewis Hall and Tino Livramento in the lineup.

Conversation That Sorta Did Take Place

Steve: Geez that was a scruffy looking goal by Newcastle.

Dennis: 

Semi-automated Offside Technology: Pseudo-precision and Tin Foil Hats

Who ya gonna believe - your own eyes or
 the comments sections on the internet?

Uh oh, I smell a rant coming on.  So you've seen the non-offside call against Guimaraes.   Though real time Bruno certainly looked offside, the semi-automated offside technology (SAOT) system concluded that Dias kept him on.  You can see the picture (left).  Trigger the outrage.

I will acknowledge there are at least two judgments involved in this snapshot, meaning the precision implied in the picture is overstated.  First, it's only as accurate as the decision as to the exact moment the ball was played; a little variation one way or the other might change the picture.  Second, the rule is that the arm starts at the bottom of the armpit; the line is therefore drawn where the VAR official "thinks" Dias's armpit ends as he obviously cannot see through the shirt.  Fair enough but that's what we have.  

But holy shit the stuff you can find on the internet is nuts and in some cases takes us into tin foil hat
territory.  Much attention was given to apparent differences between the real-time shot shown on TV (right) and the semi-automated picture.  Those focused on the location of Bruno's foot and the fact that in the real shot Dias is not jumping but appears to be in the SAOT picture.  Also, some insisted that the line was drawn off Dias's elbow.  You can do your own comparison but I'd suggest the foot and elbow points are simply wrong.

As for the jumping, I think the issue is those pictures are not taken at exactly the same split second.  Look at the still (left) I made from the video; Dias body looks very much like the image in the SAOT picture.

But what's really nuts is where people took this.  The more reasonable group suggested that maybe it has something to do with how the picture is rendered by the technology.  Maybe, but this system has been used in major tournaments since FIFA World Cup in 2022.  Others believed that the call was driven by "shady altering" of the picture and/or corruption from match officials and the EPL.  Still others suggested that it was evidence that the EPL is more beholden to PIF money that UAE money.  If the EPL was really out to get Man City, there would have been a massive points deduction for the 115 financial violations by the club.  Oh wait, I get it, because the EPL doesn't have the guts to do that, they are going to nickel and dime City with decisions like that.  That's some serious tin foil hat stuff.

A few other thoughts while I'm at it.  Note that the call on the field was not offside so even without the "corrupt" VAR, that would have been a goal.  Second, the result cost City one point, not three, because without the call, the match would have been a draw, not a win.  Third, the call didn't cost City anything anyway; what cost them was the fact that nobody but Haaland is a reliable goal scorer.  To wit, Maxime Esteve of Burnley continues to be City's second leading goal scorer with his two own goals for City.  And lastly, check out the classy behavior of Pep when the match ended.  As can be seen here, he was even giving the camera man shit.  

There, I feel better now.

You Can Only Beat Who You Play

Leeds are a team in disarray at this time, with their manager Daniel Farke under increasing pressure for the team's performance and his personnel decisions.  Aston Villa did not exactly distinguish themselves here but did come away with the win.  They fell behind on a ugly looking play that included poor judgment by keeper Martinez, a possible foul on Martinez, a possible offside in the build up and possible handling for the goal.  VAR ruled out the last three, leaving just the Martinez error and Villa down 0-1.  Fortunately, Villa are pretty good at not getting rattled by that.  Sure enough, Morgan Rogers struck back with a nifty deflection that would have made any NHL forward proud, then a fabulous up and down free kick from about 20 yards.  The 2-1 win moves them up to fourth.

"Has your luck run out? Well, I guess you must have known it would someday." (apologies to Bob Dylan)

Certainly too early to rain on the Sunderland parade but the 1-0 loss at Fulham was the kind of contest they've been getting points from.  Also, Fulham are an opponent that, if Sunderland's resurgence is real, the Black Cats should be beating.  Watching live, the match felt more even than the stats indicate.  Fulham was better on shots (23/4), shots on target (5/2), possession (57/43) and most notably xG (2.43/.19). The Black Cats are still 7th with 19 points but their next four opponents are Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City and Newcastle.  We'll probably know a lot more about them in a month or so.

Too Eze?

Yeah, he would have looked better in a Spurs' kit

Well, three actually.  Though Arsenal fans are delighted with the 4-1 win over Spurs, the rest of us were stuck with a highly disappointing North London derby. Scoreless for the first 35+ minutes, the tone seemed set early on - the Gunners were outplaying Spurs in just about every phase of the game.  Trossard got Arsenal on the board at 36 minutes and Eze added a second before halftime.  He would add two more for a hat trick.  This must have been particularly galling to Spurs fans, who thought Eze was coming to their team last summer.  Richarlison got one back on a half court shot that caught Sanchez too far from home.  The stats confirm the massacre; shots were 17/3, shots on target were 8/2 and xG was 2.35/.05.  Seriously? It's like the SAT, you can get a .05 xG pretty much by showing up.

With Friends Like These...

I always thought the highlighted provision below was in Law 12 mostly as a hypothetical: 

Violent conduct is when a player uses or attempts to use excessive force or brutality against an opponent when not challenging for the ball, or against a team-mate, team official, match official, spectator or any other person, regardless of whether contact is made.

In addition, a player who, when not challenging for the ball, deliberately strikes an opponent or any other person on the head or face with the hand or arm, is guilty of violent conduct unless the force used was negligible.

In Monday's match versus Man United, Everton's Idrissa Gana Gueye (Gana on his shirt back) slapped teammate Keane after the two had exchanged words related to some shaky defense.  Though not violent per se, the tolerance for striking the face is extremely low and Gana was shown the exit.  The last laugh was on Man United, as Everton stole a 1-0 win despite playing most of the match a man short.

Chelsea kept pace with a 2-0 win over Burnley.  Liverpool did not keep pace and fell further down the table after a 0-3 loss to Nottingham Forest, at Anfield no less. Wolves remained winless after a 0-2 loss to Crystal Palace.  Brighton came back from 0-1 to take a 2-1 win from Brentford.  Nuno looked to have West Ham running all cylinders only to see them blow a two-goal lead at Bournemouth and get only a draw.

Pre-Thanksgiving Turkeys

An underwhelming show from EPL clubs in this week's action in Europe. Newcastle weren't awful in Marseille but they weren't good either.  After a decent opening 20 minutes or so in which Barnes gave the Magpies a 1-0 lead, the home side eventually took over and were the better side.  Old "friend" from his Arsenal days, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, netted a brace of early second half goals to give Marseille a 2-1 lead.  Newcastle never really responded and that was the final.  Still hungover from the City win?

Speaking of City, they fell at home 0-2 to Leverkusen.  Liverpool were smashed 1-4 at home by PSV.  Spurs were entertaining but eventually fell 5-3 to PSG.  Chelsea and Arsenal both came through fine, beating worthy opponents Barcelona and Bayern respectively.  Arsenal and Chelsea stay in the top eight so prospects for automatic advancement to the knockout stage are still good for them;  the other four are still in the top 24 which would get them to a playoff for advancement as well.

In Emery Europa Cup action, Aston Villa sort of repeated their performance at Leeds, beating an undermatched Young Boys side 2-1.  Villa did trot out a heavily rotated lineup and the match wasn't as close as the final suggests. They sit third in the league stage and look like good bets for automatic advancement to the knockout phase.

Gone Again

After watching the Sixers lose to Miami and the Eagles cough up a 21-point lead against Dallas, perhaps I should have been ready for the Union's frustrating performance in an 0-1 loss to NYCFC on Sunday.  On the other hand, it wasn't like we hadn't seen the Union have matches like this throughout the season.  NYCFC certainly didn't run over the Union but we were also left with the feeling that they could have played another 90 minutes and the U might still not have scored.  Shots were 20/6, shots on target 5/4 and xG 2.5/1, all favor our side.  

We heard talk about the 22-day layoff between the second Chicago match and this one.  Maybe that was a factor but we've seen the Union put up performances like this on regular or short rest so I'm not putting a lot of weight on that.  We heard talk of the Supporters Shield curse as 14 of the last 17 winners have failed to win the MLS Cup.  I wouldn't call it a curse, just a fact of any playoff system; there is a high probability that results in a small sample (e.g. one game) will differ from a much larger sample (e.g. 34 games).

While it's disappointing, the playoff loss shouldn't take away from the big accomplishment this year - going from 23rd out of 29 in 2024 to 1st out of 30 in 2025.

Leftovers

We get to sleep late on Saturday as they skip the 7:30 match.  Three choices at 10, none exactly intriguing.  USA offers Brentford - Burnley while Peacock has Man City - Leeds and Sunderland - Bournemouth.  I'll probably go with that last one to see how Sunderland handle a decent opponent.

The feature match at 12:30 (on USA, not NBC) has Newcastle at Everton.  That looks like a tricky fixture for the Magpies.  Opta agrees, showing it basically as a draw (37/37/26).  The increasingly frequent 3:00 Saturday special on USA is a London derby between Spurs and Fulham.

They get us back for sleeping in Saturday with a 7 am fixture between Crystal Palace and Man United.  Yikes, Opta has Palace at over 54% for the win there; can Amiron absorb another loss to a supposedly "lesser" team.   Fortunately it's on USA so you can cheat a little on your start time, catch up on DVR and still be ready for Aston Villa - Wolves at 9:05. Anything less than a solid win there and I'll have to check on Dennis.  Two other options at 9 are West Ham - Liverpool or Nottingham Forest - Brighton.  The match week closes with big London Derby between Chelsea and Arsenal at 11:30 on USA. Opta has the Gunners as slight favorites even on the road.

MLS conference finals double header Saturday night with Miami (who crushed Cincinnati 4-0) -NYCFC at 6 and San Diego -Vancouver at 9.  Both are on "free" Apple.  

No Europe stuff so it's a quiet mid week.

What Break?

Between taking in a bunch of UEFA WC Qualifiers, going to Subaru Park to see the USMNT take on Paraguay and watching the US trounce Uruguay at Subaru Park, I kept busy.

The Luck of the Scottish

McTominay gets Scotland going with a stunning bicycle kick
ROBBIE JAY BARRATT /GETTY IMAGES

After a disappointing loss to Greece, Scotland were left in the difficult position of having to beat Denmark to win their group.  They started out well enough, with this astounding bicycle kick from McTominay.  The Danes equalized at 52 minutes but shortly afterwards had a man sent off.  The Scots took the lead again at 78 minutes and with the man advantage looked good for WC qualifying.  Except they forgot to defend and gave up the equalizer in the 81st minute. Then, in stoppage time, Kieran Tierney launched a rocket that beat Kasper Schmeichel and set off celebrations in every pub in Scotland (sampling here); the shot is presented here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Kenny McLean added an audacious goal to make the final 4-2.  So the Scots are in and now Denmark must get through a two-game playoff in March to get to the WC Finals.

The Luck of the Irish

With Portugal playing Armenia, the Hungary - Ireland match was always about who would get second in the group and at least a second chance to make the WC via the playoff.  Like the Scots, Ireland needed to win to move ahead of Hungary in the standings.  Unlike their neighbors, the Irish made things more difficult by conceding a goal just four minutes in.  Troy Parrott (ex-Spur!) got them back into the match after converting a PK.  A second Hungary goal gave the home side a 2-1 advantage which they carried into the 80th minute. Parrott got things even again but the Irish were still short a goal.  Deep into stoppage time, Parrott completed his hat trick and set off celebrations in every pub in Ireland (extensive sampling here);  you can see Parrott's goal here which was going to be the week's YouTubeableMoment until Tierney made his shot.

Though this by no means sews up a spot for Ireland, without this win they would have definitely been staying home.

Conversation That Should Never Have Taken Place and Fortunately Did Not

Dennis:  I guess Ireland wanted it more.

Steve: So you're saying they were more hungry?

Not Everything Was Dramatic

Norway thrashed Italy 4-1 to take first in their group, consigning the Italians to the playoffs.  Likewise, Germany pummelled Slovakia 6-0 to clinch their berth.  Belgium, after stumbling to a 1-1 draw against Kazakhstan, took it out on overmatched Liechtenstein, winning 7-0 to take their group.  And France took care of business in a 4-0 defeat of Ukraine.

Here's the list of group winners who are in:

Germany

Switzerland

Scotland

France

Spain

Portugal

Netherlands

Austria

Norway

Belgium

England

Croatia

The March playoff brackets to determine the other four qualifiers were annnounced Thursday:

Wales vs Bosnia & Herzegovina with winner to face winner of Italy vs Northern Ireland

Ukraine vs Sweden with winner to face winner of Poland vs Albania

Slovakia vs Kosovo with winner to face winner of Turkiye vs Romania

Czechia vs Ireland with winner to face winner of Denmark vs North Macedonia

With any luck we'll get an Ireland - Denmark match up and maybe Wales - Italy in those second matches.

Not So Friendly?

Paraguay and US mix it up; doubt they were discussing tariffs

The USMNT had a mostly positive showing in two "friendlies" during the international break.  BFS Goalkeeper Consultant Graham R and I made it down to Subaru Park for the match against Paraguay.  We try not to focus on results in these contests so the 2-1 final isn't really the headline here.  What stood out for me was the performances of Sergino Dest and Gio Reyna.  I can't remember when those two last appeared at the same time for the USMNT but it was great to watch them create multiple attacks down the right wing.  Otherwise, I'd say it was a pretty even match.  Graham thought Paraguay's game plan may have been too conservative.  Also, this was a very chippy match with 21 fouls, six yellows and a red.  Things boiled over in stoppage time with a bench clearing scrum.

What to think about the 5-1 thrashing of Uruguay on Tuesday night?  The US raced out to a 3-0 lead by 31st minute.  The half finished 4-1, Uruguay had a man sent off in the 64th minute and the match was never close.  This looks like a fantastic result against a higher rated side and was fully justified by their performance.  Based on what I read, Marcelo Biesla had restored eight regulars to the line-up while the US put out a side heavy with reserves so I don't think they were beating up on Uruguay's second team.

Where There's Fire, There's Fire

Yesterday's news cycle was filled with reports about inappropriate conduct by Union Sporting Director Ernst Tanner.  A very detailed list and accompanying story by The Guardian is available here.  A summary of their findings includes:

  

• - Made multiple misogynistic comments, including saying “women don’t belong in men’s soccer” about a female MLS referee and telling a gathering of academy players that they “should never worry about a referee, unless she’s a woman.”

• - Spoke about Black players “like they were subhuman” and suggested that Black referees “lack intelligence and capability.”

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• - Touched a co-worker inappropriately “numerous times,” an allegation for which he was reported to the Union’s HR department.

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• - Hired an underqualified coach who was allegedly abusive toward players on the Philadelphia Union II, the club’s reserve team that is used as a proving ground for young players from its thriving academy.

According to the article, the MLS investigated the complaints but was "unable to corroborate" the allegations made against Tanner.  Nonetheless, MLS announced yesterday that it is reopening the investigation; we "re-agree" with that action.  Also, Tanner was placed on administrative leave by the Union.

So much more I want to say but I'll leave it at "this is why we can't have nice things."

Back At It

Full slate of EPL, MLS Conference semi-finals and all three Europe competitions means wall-to-wall football Saturday to Thursday.

Action starts early Saturday at 7:30 but I may not get there with you as Chelsea are playing Burnley; I may join that one in progress.  There's an overfull 10 am set covering five matches.  The TV game is Bournemouth - West Ham but I'm more inclined to try Brighton-Brentford or Fulham - Sunderland.  Liverpool - Nottingham Forest looks uncompetitive and Wolves - Crystal Palace doesn't look great either.

Playing an in-form Man City does not sound like the answer to Newcastle's slump but that is the 12:30 NBC feature match.  Mildly surprised that Opta has it as close as 31% Magpies, 44% City, 25% draw; probably not bigger margin because it is at St. James' Park.

The crowded Saturday means a thin, though interesting Sunday. Aston Villa are at Leeds at 9 on USA followed by a North London derby featuring Arsenal - Spurs at 11:30; NBC continues the habit of putting some of the better matches on Peacock for that one.  Wait, this can't be right; Arsenal are at 69% and Spurs 14%  (17% draw).  Ouch.

The matchweek concludes Monday with Man United - Everton at 3 pm on USA

The weekend includes the four MLS Conference Semi-Finals.  Vancouver - LAFC is Saturday at 9:30.  Sunday has Cincinnati- Miami at 5 and Union - NYCFC at 7:45.  San Diego hosts Minnesota on Monday at 10 pm.  All matches on the single paywalled Apple as opposed to the double paywalled MLS Season Pass.  The Cincinnati - Miami contest could be a good watch.  The Union are prohibitive favorites and we are counting on the two Jeffs to bring home the W.

It's a full mid-week of European competition with Champions League on Tuesday/Wednesday and Europa Cup and Europa Conference League on Thursday.  Of course we'll be focused on Marseille - Newcastle on Tuesday at 3 pm but there are other good matchups to check out.  Chelsea host Barcelona and Man City are home to Leverkusen also on Tuesday.  Wednesday has Liverpool - PSV, Arsenal - Bayern and PSG - Spurs, unfortunately all at 3 pm.  Thursday pre meal viewing will be Aston Villa vs Young Boys at 12:45.

We have much to be thankful for.  

The First Thing People Do In This Situation Is Panic

Good, at least I'm doing things in the right order.  Another disastrous road match leaves Newcastle a slim two points above the relegation zone.

A Team From the Northeast Walks Into A London Stadium...

Wily Kayode - His long throw-ins created havoc
 and led to one of Brentford's goals

Wait, I know this one.  They take a 1-0 lead despite not playing well.  Then, the crappy performance catches up with them and the match is level.  Next, there's a self-inflicted wound; this time it was a Dan Burn foul in the box that resulted in his second yellow.  The PK is converted and Newcastle are down 2-1 and down a man.  The home side punches in a meaningless goal in stoppage time to make the final 3-1.  

This was actually much worse than the lose to West Ham.  The Magpies managed just four shots, with only one on target, and an xG of .42.  Guess this means we'll be hearing the phrase "too good to go down."

Now Do You Believe Us?

So after we kinda suggested Sunderland's fast start was in part based on a soft schedule, of course they go out and get a draw with league leader Arsenal.  The stats pile up in the Gunners' favor but the Black Cats did carry a 1-0 lead well into the second half.  Then, after falling behind 1-2, Sunderland rescued a point with a goal at 90+4.  Brian Brobbey's difficult volley with Gabriel pulling at his jersey is this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The point is enough to keep Sunderland in the top four another week.

Don't Look Now...

But Man City are gaining on you.  That was a pretty convincing 3-0 win by City over last year's champions Liverpool.  

This Isn't Supposed To Be the NBA

Spurs fans de ligted by Matthijs late header goal
Action Images via Reuters/Matthew Childs 

However, you could have saved yourself a boatload of time by waiting until about the 80 minute mark to tune into Spurs - Man United.  The visitors were up by a goal thanks to lackluster play from Spurs, though it wasn't like the Red Devils were world beaters either.  Pretty tepid stuff.  Fortunately, they made up for it with an awesome closing segment.  

First, Tel got the equalizer in the 84th minute.  This goal seemed to wake Spurs up and they took the
lead at 90+1 thanks to a Richarlison header (that was probably going in anyway).  Suddenly, all three points were Spurs' for the keeping.  Except Man United struck last with a header from Matthijs de Ligt in the closing seconds. A great 10-15 minutes for the neutral.

Putting the week's results together and looking at the standings heading into the international break, I see a table with five parts:

1) Arsenal with 26 points and a clear gap of four points at the top

2) The cluster of runners up:

Man City 22

Chelsea 20

Sunderland 19

3) The densest mid table I can remember in years with nine sides packed within three points:

Spurs 18

Aston Villa 18

Man United 18

Liverpool 18

Bournemouth 18

Crystal Palace 17

Brighton 16

Brentford 16

Everton 15

4) The relegation threatened group also packed within three points:

Newcastle 12

Fulham 11

Leeds 11

Burnley 10 

West Ham 10

Nottingham Forest 9

5) Wolves (2) seven points adrift of next to last place

A Busy Day for MLS

First we heard that Apple was scrapping MLS Season Pass and won't require a second subscription to see the games.  Details are here.  Surely, the incessant sniping on this blog about the service made the difference.  Maybe, but please don't call me Shirley.  The glass is one-quarter full side of me must point out that 1) we still won't have local broadcasts, 2) the quality of Apple broadcasts (camera work, commentary, graphics, etc.) aren't great and 3) they will probably still include the spoiler score when you try to watch a replay. 

Later, we found out that MLS is switching the schedule to align with the rest of the world.  As described here, the season will start in July, include a winter break (mid-December to mid-February?), then continue until April with playoffs in May.  Even with the winter break, this will probably be a net positive for MLS.

Just Like They Practiced

BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W sends along this gem of free kick.  Right off the training ground no doubt.

Like We Said Last Week

Pressed for time so here's the scoop on the international break as we reported in the last edition of BFS:

They are down to serious stuff in UEFA WC qualifying with the final two matchdays of group play.  First place gets you in, second place gets you into a playoff for four more spots.  There are several 1-2 matchups.  We defiinitely recommend France - Ukraine on Thursday and Poland - Netherlands on Friday.  Which matchday 10 fixtures will be critical can change based on matchday 9 results.  Picking based on current standings, we go with Italy - Norway on Sunday, Germany - Slovakia on Monday and either Denmark - Scotland or Spain - Turkiye on Tuesday.  All matches are at 2:45.  Should be some good viewing.

The USMNT has two friendlies - Paraguay 5 pm on Saturday (11/15) and Uruguay on Tuesday (11/18) at 7 pm.  Paraguay are ranked just  39th but Uruguay are 15th, one spot ahead of the USA.  We'll be looking to see if they can build on positives from last international window - mostly a more connected style of play.

A little slower than recent weeks but plenty to do.

Then back to EPL and MLS playoffs.

Plenty of Disappointment to Go Around

Biggest disappointment was Newcastle's 3-1 loss at West Ham but there were others too.  At least the Union advanced.

Now You Get the New Manager Bounce?

West Ham had shown no signs of a new manager bounce since Nuno's arrival. They picked a lousy time to find it, handing Newcastle a 3-1 loss.  We can ask how much to attribute to the new manager bounce versus lousy play from the Magpies.

Botman after the own goal - you can read the f-bomb in his head

About four minutes in West Ham hit the post.  Seconds later, Jacob Murphy gave Newcastle an early lead with another of his patented shots from the right side of the box.  The announcers were quick to frame this as a microcosm of the Hammers' season to date and were even quicker to talk like Newcastle would surely add to West Ham's misery.  Seems like the Newcastle players were listening because from that point on, they played like the three points were their birth right.  With the Magpies easily tackled off the ball and misplacing passes, momentum swung quickly.  Paqueta got the equalizer on a decent shot that Pope might have done better with.  Then, Botman surrendered an own goal in first half stoppage time; yeah it was a bit of bad luck but it was the result of West Ham pressure.

Some halftime changes didn't really affect things much as West Ham continued to tackle and Newcastle continued to make errant passes.  Unlike at Fulham, a comeback, far from seeming inevitable, looked unlikely.  It never materialized.  West Ham added a third in stoppage time and the 3-1 final looked fully deserved.  

Hard to move up the table if you don't get points on the road.  Put it down to a hangover from the mid-week win over Spurs in the Carabao Cup?

Disappointment Elsewhere

Certainly can't be too optimistic about playing Liverpool at Anfield but I did have some hope for Villa; they are usually competitive regardless of opponent or venue.  Though they weren't awful, the 2-0 final was disappointing.  Stats clearly tilted in Liverpool's favor; the xG of .42 for Villa stands out.  

Also had some hope for Spurs taking on Chelsea at home.  Nope, Spurs looked like they suffering from the same hangover as Newcastle.  They were never in the match.  The final was only 0-1 but xG at .13-3.50 was how the game looked on TV.  

And there was some thought that maybe Bournemouth's recent form was going to hold up at Man City but the 3-1 final favor the Citizens suggests maybe Bournemouth aren't really top six yet.  The Cherries didn't go quietly into the night, rallying from an 0-1 deficit to briefly level things before Haaland's second of the night put Man City up for good.

Stop Questioning Opta

Last week we noted our disbelief that Opta had Nottingham Forest as a slight favorite against Man United.  The 2-2 draw there should be a reminder that maybe these guys do know what they are doing.

Arsenal continued to set the pace with a 2-0 win at Burnley.  Sunderland grabbed another point with a 1-1 draw against Everton to stay in the top four.  Fulham bounced back as expected and kept Wolves winless and Leed's 3-0 loss at Brighton ensured that they stayed close in the relegation race.

A Header That Will Curl Your Hair

Burn launches the header to give Newcastle an early lead

So maybe Newcastle are just a cup team this year.  After their stinker at West Ham, they easily handled The Athletic Club 2-0 in Champions League action.  Check out the "aesthetically pleasing header" from Dan Burn that put the Mapgies up 1-0.  An easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment; I don't recall ever seeing a header with quite that much curl.  

Who's in Charge: Part I

Dennis alerted me to the fact that there will be just one EPL match on Boxing Day this year -  Man United vs Newcastle.   It used to be everybody played, then they started spreading the games over 2-3 days but you could count on three or four matches on Boxing Day proper.  The simple reason for this year's dearth is that contractual obligations to broadcasters require 33 weekends of fixtures; too many matches on Friday would violate those terms.  The EPL spin keeps referencing the expanded European competitions (eight instead of six mid-week fixtures); I haven't figured out exactly how that took away an EPL weekend.  There's also reference to player burnout.  A fair concern but again not clear how playing more games on a Friday versus Saturday or Sunday is going to help that.  The NYT has a useful history behind Boxing Day fixtures here.  It does make it clear who really runs things though doesn't it?

Keeper Howlers the Day After Halloween

Kai (27) set up Tai for the Union's 2nd

The Union had a much easier time of it in Chicago than they did at Subaru Park the previous Sunday.  Chicago's regular keeper Chris Brady was out with injury and his replacement Jeffrey Gal gifted a goal to Baribo in the 8th minute.  Doing the gifting for a second goal was Kai Wagner, who put a cross right onto Baribo's head for a quick second goal and a 2-0 lead after just 16 minutes.  We'll make this Kai to Tai hook-up this week's YouTubeableMoment - US Version.

In an alternate universe (glass half empty), the match could have taken a distressingly different path from here.  In the 32nd minute, the U were called for a foul in the box but Blake saved the PK. Minutes later, Gal made his second howler of the night, which Damiani was more than happy to convert into a 3-0 lead.  About five minutes after that, Iloski committed a foul that bordered between reckless and excessive force; fortunately the call was yellow.  So instead of being up just 2-1 and down a man, they were up 3-0 and full strength.  There was a piece of luck in the second half too when a deflected goal of a Blake clearance was waved off because it hit Guitterez's arm.  

The Union's reward for this win is three weeks off - see below.

Who's in Charge: Part II

As noted above, the Union beat Chicago on 11/1 to win their best of three first round series.  They advance to the Conference Semi-finals which will be held - wait for it (literally) - the weekend of 11/22-23.  So the Union (and Vancouver and LAFC) will have three weeks off.  This is because some of the nutty best-of-three series won't wrap up until this weekend and the following weekend is an international break.  Brilliant.  Yes, the international break isn't down to the MLS but they could have easily worked around it without leaving some teams stranded for three weeks.  For example, a two-round home and away aggregate would have allowed them to get the conference semis in before the break and then all teams would have the same two week break.  Instead, we get playoffs interruptus.  All hail our Cupertino overlords.

Weird Stat of the Week

Man City's second leading scorer in EPL action is Maxime Esteve of Burnley, who was unlucky enough to be credited with two own goals in the Clarets 1-5 loss to City.  Deductive reasoning tells us therefore  that City has no one with more than one EPL goal.  But, I guess it doesn't matter if Haaland has 13.

Another Weird Stat of the Week

BFS Goalkeeper Consultant Graham R reports that during the Brighton - Leeds match it was pointed out that Fabian Hurzeler has never named the same starting XI two games in a row during his 58-match tenure at Brighton.  I tried to check that on the internet and got a partial confirmation here; I love how he cites starting the same XI as a goal of his.

Does the NFL Need Yellow Cards?

Check out this embarrassing footage of Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen attempting to draw an unnecessary roughness penalty on a KC defender Nick Bolton.  Seriously, that is some Neymar-level embellishment there.  Jim Nantz and Tony Romo made fun of Allen but frankly they should have roasted him for that crap.  Makes it harder to take the true hits seriously.

Now That's Playing Advantage

BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W sends along this example of determination.  I count four possible fouls on the way to putting the ball in the net.  I'm also amazed that the referee didn't blow the whistle for one of them.  He was trailing the play by a bit but we'll give him credit for playing advantage until the sequence was done.

Are You Ready for Yellow Balls?

The yellow winter ball makes its debut Saturday

A decent slate of EPL fixtures which will feature the new "high visibility" Puma ball.  Also, some UEFA World Cup qualifiers if you're into that kind of thing.

Ooh, even I'll get up at 7:30 Saturday for Spurs - Man Unite (wait, only on Peacock, guess I have no choice but to get up early).  Spurs are solid favorites here but they can be inconsistent.  So are Man United so this one seems up in the air.

Just two 10 am matches.  You can do  Everton - Fulham on USA or West Ham - Burnley on Peacock. Everton are favored but Fulham have had their moments.  The latter has relegation consequences written all over it, which often leads to an interesting match.

The 12:30 feature NBC is Sunderland Arsenal on NBC; will the Gunners do what most have failed to do this year, namely suggest that the Black Cats are punching above their weight so far?   This is followed by the now regular 3 pm feature match that on paper doesn't look that enticing; Chelsea - Wolverhampton sounds like a mismatch to me.

Oh bollocks, there are four at 9 am on Sunday and all look pretty good.  We obviously will go with Brentford - Newcastle (Peacock).  This will be a very tricky test for Newcastle since we haven't done well on the road; Opta agrees and has Newcastle at 38, Brentford 36 and draw at 26.  Aston Villa vs Bournemouth is the USA game.  Though Villa are favored, this should still be a highly watchable contest.  Then there's Crystal Palace - Brighton (Peacock) who sit 9th and 10th in the table respectively, separated by just a point.  Other choice is Nottingham Forest - Leeds (Peacock), which could be an interesting early look at relegation candidates.

The matchweek closes with a heavyweight matchup at 11:30 between Man City and Liverpool on USA. Recent form and home field advantage make City the prohibitive favorite here.

Then, we have an international break.  They are down to serious stuff in UEFA WC qualifying with the final two matchdays of group play.  First place gets you in, second place gets you into a playoff for four more spots.  There are several 1-2 matchups.  We defiinitely recommend France - Ukraine on Thursday and Poland - Netherlands on Friday.  Which matchday 10 fixtures will be critical can change based on matchday 9 results.  Picking based on current standings, we go with Italy - Norway on Sunday, Germany - Slovakia on Monday and either Denmark - Scotland or Spain - Turkiye on Tuesday.  All matches are at 2:45.  Should be some good viewing.

The USMNT has two friendlies - Paraguay 5 pm on Saturday (11/15) and Uruguay on Tuesday (11/18) at 7 pm.  Paraguay are ranked just  39th but Uruguay are 15th, one spot ahead of the USA.  We'll be looking to see if they can build on positives from last international window - mostly a more connected style of play.

A little slower than recent weeks but plenty to do.