Though the holiday fixtures represent less than 10% of the year's matches, we still like to grade each team's performance over the festive period. The chart below provides the basic data - expected points (based on Opta projections), actual points, the difference between actual and expected and the percentage of expected points collected. The teams are ranked by the percentage of expected points achieved.
This couldn't have gone better. They won all three contests by an aggregate score of 9-0. Beating Ipswich wasn't a surprise and they did get a gift when Duran was sent off in the win over Villa. Most surprising was the ease with which they dispatched Man United at Old Trafford. Except for the first 15 minutes of the second half, Newcastle looked the far better side and the 2-0 final feels right. With the turnaround, they have shot up to 5th in the table.
Aston Villa - 
As Dennis put it, with matches against Man City, Newcastle and Brighton, four points was just fine, almost exactly as projected by Opta. The surprise win over City was balanced by the unfortunate call on Duran that pretty much ruined the Newcastle match. The 2-2 draw with Brighton seemed like the new Villa - overall a good squad subject to unfortunate lapses. After falling behind they took a 2-1 lead and seemed poised to put the game away. This was a winnable match yet somehow by the end they were clinging to the draw.
Wolves -
What a great new manager bounce Wolves have gotten from Vitor Pereira. Okay, maybe beating
Leicester in his debut wasn't all that but a 2-0 clean sheet against Man United followed by a 2-2 draw on a late goal against Spurs are. He's 2-1-0 out of the chute and are Wolves are out the relegation zone for the new year.
Ipswich - The Tractor Boys went in with the lowest expected points - just 1.987 - of any team. And they got shut out in the first two matches. Then they pulled off perhaps the biggest upset of the season - a 2-0 win over Chelsea. Possession (75-25) and shots (20-9) suggest they got pushed all over the place and were perhaps a bit lucky, though a draw wouldn't have been ridiculous given xG (1.59-1.78 favor Chelsea) and shots on target (6-5 favor Forest). They are still in the relegation zone but are just one behind Wolves and two behind Everton.
Everton - The Toffees only managed two draws but given their schedule they weren't expecting much to begin with. After draws with Chelsea and Man City, the 0-2 loss at home to Nottingham Forest had to be a bit of a disappointment.
Observations and rankings below.
Newcastle -
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| Tonali, Guimaraes and Joelinton- a daunting Geordie midfield combination Photo by George Wood/Getty Images |
As Dennis put it, with matches against Man City, Newcastle and Brighton, four points was just fine, almost exactly as projected by Opta. The surprise win over City was balanced by the unfortunate call on Duran that pretty much ruined the Newcastle match. The 2-2 draw with Brighton seemed like the new Villa - overall a good squad subject to unfortunate lapses. After falling behind they took a 2-1 lead and seemed poised to put the game away. This was a winnable match yet somehow by the end they were clinging to the draw.
Tottenham -
Well, Liverpool was never going to be easy but just one point out of Nottingham Forest (1-0 loss) and Wolves (2-2 draw after surrendering 87th minute goal) had to be disappointing. To be fair, they are dealing with a Newcastlesque level of injuries and some suspensions, as only Brentford have more players (11) on the unavailable list than Spurs (9). I always thought of Fraser Forster as a capable back up but he's been making some strange choices that have cost Spurs some goals.
Manchester United - no Santas for U
Well, Liverpool was never going to be easy but just one point out of Nottingham Forest (1-0 loss) and Wolves (2-2 draw after surrendering 87th minute goal) had to be disappointing. To be fair, they are dealing with a Newcastlesque level of injuries and some suspensions, as only Brentford have more players (11) on the unavailable list than Spurs (9). I always thought of Fraser Forster as a capable back up but he's been making some strange choices that have cost Spurs some goals.
Manchester United - no Santas for U
Home against Bournemouth and Newcastle and away to Wolves - should have been three to five points (Opta projected 4.7). Nope, shut out by all three in an aggregate 0-7 scoreline. The players are taking heat but so is "new" manager Amirom as seen here.
Wolves -
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| I love this game - Wolves new manager Pereira starts with 3 wins Photo by Naomi Baker/Getty Images |
Leicester in his debut wasn't all that but a 2-0 clean sheet against Man United followed by a 2-2 draw on a late goal against Spurs are. He's 2-1-0 out of the chute and are Wolves are out the relegation zone for the new year.
The Rest
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Liverpool - Granted they did go into holidays with the highest expected total given their schedule but they did win all. Part of winning championships is minimizing stumbles along the way.
Nottingham Forest - Four points would have been a decent haul for them but they took all three, finishing with a 2-0 win over Everton. Remarkably, Forest now sit 3rd in the table.
Arsenal - Same as Liverpool. Swept through Crystal Palace, Ipswich and Brentford. Easy set of fixtures but you can only beat who you play.
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Bournemouth - Probably really should be 3.5 Santas but we don't cut him in half. They got a big win over Man United, then draws of varying degrees of satisfaction against Crystal Palace and Fulham. So they went unbeaten over the busy period.
Crystal Palace - Almost exactly as expected. Lose to Arsenal, draw with Bournemouth, beat Southampton. They are so close to breaking free of the gravity of the relegation zone but haven't quite done it yet.
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Crystal Palace - Almost exactly as expected. Lose to Arsenal, draw with Bournemouth, beat Southampton. They are so close to breaking free of the gravity of the relegation zone but haven't quite done it yet.
West Ham - Basically the same as Palace with a win (Southampton), draw (Brighton) and a loss (Liverpool), exactly as you would have expected. We are almost ready to move them out the relegation threatened category.
Fulham - We could make a case for four Santas here. After all, they didn't lose a match. The win over Chelsea was certainly an upset. The draw against Bournemouth was likely a mild disappointment. But the home draw against Southampton is what puts them in the three Santa category for us.
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Brighton - We could quibble and say it was a one Santa holiday except they didn't lose a match. They got three points with successive draws to West Ham, Brentford and Aston Villa, which doesn't sound all that bad. The problem is they were slight favorites at West Ham and heavy favorites against Brentford at home. You can't live in this league by ties alone.
Chelsea - The Blues had the second highest expectations heading into the holiday and managed just one lousy point - a 0-0 draw with Everton. They followed that with losses to Fulham (ouch) and Ipswich (really ouch).
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Man City - They got four points but given the schedule, it should have been more. They were upset by Aston Villa, drew with Everton before rescuing some dignity with a 2-0 win over Leicester. This is not your father's Man City.
Leicester - The Foxes went in with exceedingly low expectations that were not met, getting no points in the holiday fixtures. To be fair, their schedule included Liverpool and Man City but this is factored into the expectations. They have fallen to 19th in the table and are clearly in a relegation fight.
Southampton - Basically the same as Leicester, though they did manage to grab a point in 0-0 draw with Fulham. This was followed by losses to West Ham and Crystal Palace, not exactly your high-powered sides. They are now eight points adrift of even 19th place, and 10 points from safety. It don't look good as they say.
Brentford - A tough set of fixtures (Forest, Brighton and Arsenal) so maybe this is bit harsh. But just one point so now they're down to 12th in the table.
London Calling (apologies to The Clash)
I posted this before our 9:15 pm departure to London. We arrive at Heathrow 9:20 am Thursday. We'll head to our AirBnB, get settled, make sure Michael gets the best bedroom, then maybe head out for walk in Regents Park. Friday is also footballless but we will tour around the city with a planned visit to the Churchill War Rooms.
Then we get serious. Spurs Newcastle is 12:30 pm Saturday. Since we have hospitality tickets, I can't wear any of my Newcastle gear. Tricky match. Recent form says Magpies have the advantage but both teams have been consistently inconsistent so we could see just about anything. The rest of the day will likely find us taking in the rest of Saturday's action at a pub or pubs. The 3 pm choices (all times are GMT) are Bournemouth - Everton, Aston Villa - Leicester, Chelsea - Crystal Palace, Southampton - Brentford and Man City - West Ham. I would like to see Aston Villa find some form against a struggling Leicester side but since it's London, my guess is we'll watch the Chelsea - Palace derby. The 5:30 match is Brighton - Arsenal.
Sunday we head south from our AirBnB to the venerable Craven Cottage to see Fulham take on Ipswich at 2 pm. Again, with hospitality tickets, we cannot wear Ipswich gear. Though some of us might prefer to see the Tractor Boys win, I don't think any us have a scarf or any similar type of swag. Afterwards, we'll try to find a good pub to see Liverpool - Man United. I rate our chances high.
Monday's EPL game is Wolves - Nottingham Forest, two of the leagues hotter sides. Since this is a London only trip, we're passing on that one but instead heading to another hallowed London venue - Loftus Road. We'll see Queen's Park Rangers host Luton Town. I don't know the restrictions on Luton Town gear for this one but I'm sure we'll survive.
Weather looks a bit dodgy, especially Sunday and Monday. High 30s to low 40s with pretty much a constant chance of rain or snow showers. As shown below, we are ready. If you watch, look for the guys with the Elmer Fudd type hats.
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