What Break?

Between taking in a bunch of UEFA WC Qualifiers, going to Subaru Park to see the USMNT take on Paraguay and watching the US trounce Uruguay at Subaru Park, I kept busy.

The Luck of the Scottish

McTominay gets Scotland going with a stunning bicycle kick
ROBBIE JAY BARRATT /GETTY IMAGES

After a disappointing loss to Greece, Scotland were left in the difficult position of having to beat Denmark to win their group.  They started out well enough, with this astounding bicycle kick from McTominay.  The Danes equalized at 52 minutes but shortly afterwards had a man sent off.  The Scots took the lead again at 78 minutes and with the man advantage looked good for WC qualifying.  Except they forgot to defend and gave up the equalizer in the 81st minute. Then, in stoppage time, Kieran Tierney launched a rocket that beat Kasper Schmeichel and set off celebrations in every pub in Scotland (sampling here); the shot is presented here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Kenny McLean added an audacious goal to make the final 4-2.  So the Scots are in and now Denmark must get through a two-game playoff in March to get to the WC Finals.

The Luck of the Irish

With Portugal playing Armenia, the Hungary - Ireland match was always about who would get second in the group and at least a second chance to make the WC via the playoff.  Like the Scots, Ireland needed to win to move ahead of Hungary in the standings.  Unlike their neighbors, the Irish made things more difficult by conceding a goal just four minutes in.  Troy Parrott (ex-Spur!) got them back into the match after converting a PK.  A second Hungary goal gave the home side a 2-1 advantage which they carried into the 80th minute. Parrott got things even again but the Irish were still short a goal.  Deep into stoppage time, Parrott completed his hat trick and set off celebrations in every pub in Ireland (extensive sampling here);  you can see Parrott's goal here which was going to be the week's YouTubeableMoment until Tierney made his shot.

Though this by no means sews up a spot for Ireland, without this win they would have definitely been staying home.

Conversation That Should Never Have Taken Place and Fortunately Did Not

Dennis:  I guess Ireland wanted it more.

Steve: So you're saying they were more hungry?

Not Everything Was Dramatic

Norway thrashed Italy 4-1 to take first in their group, consigning the Italians to the playoffs.  Likewise, Germany pummelled Slovakia 6-0 to clinch their berth.  Belgium, after stumbling to a 1-1 draw against Kazakhstan, took it out on overmatched Liechtenstein, winning 7-0 to take their group.  And France took care of business in a 4-0 defeat of Ukraine.

Here's the list of group winners who are in:

Germany

Switzerland

Scotland

France

Spain

Portugal

Netherlands

Austria

Norway

Belgium

England

Croatia

The March playoff brackets to determine the other four qualifiers were annnounced Thursday:

Wales vs Bosnia & Herzegovina with winner to face winner of Italy vs Northern Ireland

Ukraine vs Sweden with winner to face winner of Poland vs Albania

Slovakia vs Kosovo with winner to face winner of Turkiye vs Romania

Czechia vs Ireland with winner to face winner of Denmark vs North Macedonia

With any luck we'll get an Ireland - Denmark match up and maybe Wales - Italy in those second matches.

Not So Friendly?

Paraguay and US mix it up; doubt they were discussing tariffs

The USMNT had a mostly positive showing in two "friendlies" during the international break.  BFS Goalkeeper Consultant Graham R and I made it down to Subaru Park for the match against Paraguay.  We try not to focus on results in these contests so the 2-1 final isn't really the headline here.  What stood out for me was the performances of Sergino Dest and Gio Reyna.  I can't remember when those two last appeared at the same time for the USMNT but it was great to watch them create multiple attacks down the right wing.  Otherwise, I'd say it was a pretty even match.  Graham thought Paraguay's game plan may have been too conservative.  Also, this was a very chippy match with 21 fouls, six yellows and a red.  Things boiled over in stoppage time with a bench clearing scrum.

What to think about the 5-1 thrashing of Uruguay on Tuesday night?  The US raced out to a 3-0 lead by 31st minute.  The half finished 4-1, Uruguay had a man sent off in the 64th minute and the match was never close.  This looks like a fantastic result against a higher rated side and was fully justified by their performance.  Based on what I read, Marcelo Biesla had restored eight regulars to the line-up while the US put out a side heavy with reserves so I don't think they were beating up on Uruguay's second team.

Where There's Fire, There's Fire

Yesterday's news cycle was filled with reports about inappropriate conduct by Union Sporting Director Ernst Tanner.  A very detailed list and accompanying story by The Guardian is available here.  A summary of their findings includes:

  

• - Made multiple misogynistic comments, including saying “women don’t belong in men’s soccer” about a female MLS referee and telling a gathering of academy players that they “should never worry about a referee, unless she’s a woman.”

• - Spoke about Black players “like they were subhuman” and suggested that Black referees “lack intelligence and capability.”

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• - Touched a co-worker inappropriately “numerous times,” an allegation for which he was reported to the Union’s HR department.

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• - Hired an underqualified coach who was allegedly abusive toward players on the Philadelphia Union II, the club’s reserve team that is used as a proving ground for young players from its thriving academy.

According to the article, the MLS investigated the complaints but was "unable to corroborate" the allegations made against Tanner.  Nonetheless, MLS announced yesterday that it is reopening the investigation; we "re-agree" with that action.  Also, Tanner was placed on administrative leave by the Union.

So much more I want to say but I'll leave it at "this is why we can't have nice things."

Back At It

Full slate of EPL, MLS Conference semi-finals and all three Europe competitions means wall-to-wall football Saturday to Thursday.

Action starts early Saturday at 7:30 but I may not get there with you as Chelsea are playing Burnley; I may join that one in progress.  There's an overfull 10 am set covering five matches.  The TV game is Bournemouth - West Ham but I'm more inclined to try Brighton-Brentford or Fulham - Sunderland.  Liverpool - Nottingham Forest looks uncompetitive and Wolves - Crystal Palace doesn't look great either.

Playing an in-form Man City does not sound like the answer to Newcastle's slump but that is the 12:30 NBC feature match.  Mildly surprised that Opta has it as close as 31% Magpies, 44% City, 25% draw; probably not bigger margin because it is at St. James' Park.

The crowded Saturday means a thin, though interesting Sunday. Aston Villa are at Leeds at 9 on USA followed by a North London derby featuring Arsenal - Spurs at 11:30; NBC continues the habit of putting some of the better matches on Peacock for that one.  Wait, this can't be right; Arsenal are at 69% and Spurs 14%  (17% draw).  Ouch.

The matchweek concludes Monday with Man United - Everton at 3 pm on USA

The weekend includes the four MLS Conference Semi-Finals.  Vancouver - LAFC is Saturday at 9:30.  Sunday has Cincinnati- Miami at 5 and Union - NYCFC at 7:45.  San Diego hosts Minnesota on Monday at 10 pm.  All matches on the single paywalled Apple as opposed to the double paywalled MLS Season Pass.  The Cincinnati - Miami contest could be a good watch.  The Union are prohibitive favorites and we are counting on the two Jeffs to bring home the W.

It's a full mid-week of European competition with Champions League on Tuesday/Wednesday and Europa Cup and Europa Conference League on Thursday.  Of course we'll be focused on Marseille - Newcastle on Tuesday at 3 pm but there are other good matchups to check out.  Chelsea host Barcelona and Man City are home to Leverkusen also on Tuesday.  Wednesday has Liverpool - PSV, Arsenal - Bayern and PSG - Spurs, unfortunately all at 3 pm.  Thursday pre meal viewing will be Aston Villa vs Young Boys at 12:45.

We have much to be thankful for.  

The First Thing People Do In This Situation Is Panic

Good, at least I'm doing things in the right order.  Another disastrous road match leaves Newcastle a slim two points above the relegation zone.

A Team From the Northeast Walks Into A London Stadium...

Wily Kayode - His long throw-ins created havoc
 and led to one of Brentford's goals

Wait, I know this one.  They take a 1-0 lead despite not playing well.  Then, the crappy performance catches up with them and the match is level.  Next, there's a self-inflicted wound; this time it was a Dan Burn foul in the box that resulted in his second yellow.  The PK is converted and Newcastle are down 2-1 and down a man.  The home side punches in a meaningless goal in stoppage time to make the final 3-1.  

This was actually much worse than the lose to West Ham.  The Magpies managed just four shots, with only one on target, and an xG of .42.  Guess this means we'll be hearing the phrase "too good to go down."

Now Do You Believe Us?

So after we kinda suggested Sunderland's fast start was in part based on a soft schedule, of course they go out and get a draw with league leader Arsenal.  The stats pile up in the Gunners' favor but the Black Cats did carry a 1-0 lead well into the second half.  Then, after falling behind 1-2, Sunderland rescued a point with a goal at 90+4.  Brian Brobbey's difficult volley with Gabriel pulling at his jersey is this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The point is enough to keep Sunderland in the top four another week.

Don't Look Now...

But Man City are gaining on you.  That was a pretty convincing 3-0 win by City over last year's champions Liverpool.  

This Isn't Supposed To Be the NBA

Spurs fans de ligted by Matthijs late header goal
Action Images via Reuters/Matthew Childs 

However, you could have saved yourself a boatload of time by waiting until about the 80 minute mark to tune into Spurs - Man United.  The visitors were up by a goal thanks to lackluster play from Spurs, though it wasn't like the Red Devils were world beaters either.  Pretty tepid stuff.  Fortunately, they made up for it with an awesome closing segment.  

First, Tel got the equalizer in the 84th minute.  This goal seemed to wake Spurs up and they took the
lead at 90+1 thanks to a Richarlison header (that was probably going in anyway).  Suddenly, all three points were Spurs' for the keeping.  Except Man United struck last with a header from Matthijs de Ligt in the closing seconds. A great 10-15 minutes for the neutral.

Putting the week's results together and looking at the standings heading into the international break, I see a table with five parts:

1) Arsenal with 26 points and a clear gap of four points at the top

2) The cluster of runners up:

Man City 22

Chelsea 20

Sunderland 19

3) The densest mid table I can remember in years with nine sides packed within three points:

Spurs 18

Aston Villa 18

Man United 18

Liverpool 18

Bournemouth 18

Crystal Palace 17

Brighton 16

Brentford 16

Everton 15

4) The relegation threatened group also packed within three points:

Newcastle 12

Fulham 11

Leeds 11

Burnley 10 

West Ham 10

Nottingham Forest 9

5) Wolves (2) seven points adrift of next to last place

A Busy Day for MLS

First we heard that Apple was scrapping MLS Season Pass and won't require a second subscription to see the games.  Details are here.  Surely, the incessant sniping on this blog about the service made the difference.  Maybe, but please don't call me Shirley.  The glass is one-quarter full side of me must point out that 1) we still won't have local broadcasts, 2) the quality of Apple broadcasts (camera work, commentary, graphics, etc.) aren't great and 3) they will probably still include the spoiler score when you try to watch a replay. 

Later, we found out that MLS is switching the schedule to align with the rest of the world.  As described here, the season will start in July, include a winter break (mid-December to mid-February?), then continue until April with playoffs in May.  Even with the winter break, this will probably be a net positive for MLS.

Just Like They Practiced

BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W sends along this gem of free kick.  Right off the training ground no doubt.

Like We Said Last Week

Pressed for time so here's the scoop on the international break as we reported in the last edition of BFS:

They are down to serious stuff in UEFA WC qualifying with the final two matchdays of group play.  First place gets you in, second place gets you into a playoff for four more spots.  There are several 1-2 matchups.  We defiinitely recommend France - Ukraine on Thursday and Poland - Netherlands on Friday.  Which matchday 10 fixtures will be critical can change based on matchday 9 results.  Picking based on current standings, we go with Italy - Norway on Sunday, Germany - Slovakia on Monday and either Denmark - Scotland or Spain - Turkiye on Tuesday.  All matches are at 2:45.  Should be some good viewing.

The USMNT has two friendlies - Paraguay 5 pm on Saturday (11/15) and Uruguay on Tuesday (11/18) at 7 pm.  Paraguay are ranked just  39th but Uruguay are 15th, one spot ahead of the USA.  We'll be looking to see if they can build on positives from last international window - mostly a more connected style of play.

A little slower than recent weeks but plenty to do.

Then back to EPL and MLS playoffs.

Plenty of Disappointment to Go Around

Biggest disappointment was Newcastle's 3-1 loss at West Ham but there were others too.  At least the Union advanced.

Now You Get the New Manager Bounce?

West Ham had shown no signs of a new manager bounce since Nuno's arrival. They picked a lousy time to find it, handing Newcastle a 3-1 loss.  We can ask how much to attribute to the new manager bounce versus lousy play from the Magpies.

Botman after the own goal - you can read the f-bomb in his head

About four minutes in West Ham hit the post.  Seconds later, Jacob Murphy gave Newcastle an early lead with another of his patented shots from the right side of the box.  The announcers were quick to frame this as a microcosm of the Hammers' season to date and were even quicker to talk like Newcastle would surely add to West Ham's misery.  Seems like the Newcastle players were listening because from that point on, they played like the three points were their birth right.  With the Magpies easily tackled off the ball and misplacing passes, momentum swung quickly.  Paqueta got the equalizer on a decent shot that Pope might have done better with.  Then, Botman surrendered an own goal in first half stoppage time; yeah it was a bit of bad luck but it was the result of West Ham pressure.

Some halftime changes didn't really affect things much as West Ham continued to tackle and Newcastle continued to make errant passes.  Unlike at Fulham, a comeback, far from seeming inevitable, looked unlikely.  It never materialized.  West Ham added a third in stoppage time and the 3-1 final looked fully deserved.  

Hard to move up the table if you don't get points on the road.  Put it down to a hangover from the mid-week win over Spurs in the Carabao Cup?

Disappointment Elsewhere

Certainly can't be too optimistic about playing Liverpool at Anfield but I did have some hope for Villa; they are usually competitive regardless of opponent or venue.  Though they weren't awful, the 2-0 final was disappointing.  Stats clearly tilted in Liverpool's favor; the xG of .42 for Villa stands out.  

Also had some hope for Spurs taking on Chelsea at home.  Nope, Spurs looked like they suffering from the same hangover as Newcastle.  They were never in the match.  The final was only 0-1 but xG at .13-3.50 was how the game looked on TV.  

And there was some thought that maybe Bournemouth's recent form was going to hold up at Man City but the 3-1 final favor the Citizens suggests maybe Bournemouth aren't really top six yet.  The Cherries didn't go quietly into the night, rallying from an 0-1 deficit to briefly level things before Haaland's second of the night put Man City up for good.

Stop Questioning Opta

Last week we noted our disbelief that Opta had Nottingham Forest as a slight favorite against Man United.  The 2-2 draw there should be a reminder that maybe these guys do know what they are doing.

Arsenal continued to set the pace with a 2-0 win at Burnley.  Sunderland grabbed another point with a 1-1 draw against Everton to stay in the top four.  Fulham bounced back as expected and kept Wolves winless and Leed's 3-0 loss at Brighton ensured that they stayed close in the relegation race.

A Header That Will Curl Your Hair

Burn launches the header to give Newcastle an early lead

So maybe Newcastle are just a cup team this year.  After their stinker at West Ham, they easily handled The Athletic Club 2-0 in Champions League action.  Check out the "aesthetically pleasing header" from Dan Burn that put the Mapgies up 1-0.  An easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment; I don't recall ever seeing a header with quite that much curl.  

Who's in Charge: Part I

Dennis alerted me to the fact that there will be just one EPL match on Boxing Day this year -  Man United vs Newcastle.   It used to be everybody played, then they started spreading the games over 2-3 days but you could count on three or four matches on Boxing Day proper.  The simple reason for this year's dearth is that contractual obligations to broadcasters require 33 weekends of fixtures; too many matches on Friday would violate those terms.  The EPL spin keeps referencing the expanded European competitions (eight instead of six mid-week fixtures); I haven't figured out exactly how that took away an EPL weekend.  There's also reference to player burnout.  A fair concern but again not clear how playing more games on a Friday versus Saturday or Sunday is going to help that.  The NYT has a useful history behind Boxing Day fixtures here.  It does make it clear who really runs things though doesn't it?

Keeper Howlers the Day After Halloween

Kai (27) set up Tai for the Union's 2nd

The Union had a much easier time of it in Chicago than they did at Subaru Park the previous Sunday.  Chicago's regular keeper Chris Brady was out with injury and his replacement Jeffrey Gal gifted a goal to Baribo in the 8th minute.  Doing the gifting for a second goal was Kai Wagner, who put a cross right onto Baribo's head for a quick second goal and a 2-0 lead after just 16 minutes.  We'll make this Kai to Tai hook-up this week's YouTubeableMoment - US Version.

In an alternate universe (glass half empty), the match could have taken a distressingly different path from here.  In the 32nd minute, the U were called for a foul in the box but Blake saved the PK. Minutes later, Gal made his second howler of the night, which Damiani was more than happy to convert into a 3-0 lead.  About five minutes after that, Iloski committed a foul that bordered between reckless and excessive force; fortunately the call was yellow.  So instead of being up just 2-1 and down a man, they were up 3-0 and full strength.  There was a piece of luck in the second half too when a deflected goal of a Blake clearance was waved off because it hit Guitterez's arm.  

The Union's reward for this win is three weeks off - see below.

Who's in Charge: Part II

As noted above, the Union beat Chicago on 11/1 to win their best of three first round series.  They advance to the Conference Semi-finals which will be held - wait for it (literally) - the weekend of 11/22-23.  So the Union (and Vancouver and LAFC) will have three weeks off.  This is because some of the nutty best-of-three series won't wrap up until this weekend and the following weekend is an international break.  Brilliant.  Yes, the international break isn't down to the MLS but they could have easily worked around it without leaving some teams stranded for three weeks.  For example, a two-round home and away aggregate would have allowed them to get the conference semis in before the break and then all teams would have the same two week break.  Instead, we get playoffs interruptus.  All hail our Cupertino overlords.

Weird Stat of the Week

Man City's second leading scorer in EPL action is Maxime Esteve of Burnley, who was unlucky enough to be credited with two own goals in the Clarets 1-5 loss to City.  Deductive reasoning tells us therefore  that City has no one with more than one EPL goal.  But, I guess it doesn't matter if Haaland has 13.

Another Weird Stat of the Week

BFS Goalkeeper Consultant Graham R reports that during the Brighton - Leeds match it was pointed out that Fabian Hurzeler has never named the same starting XI two games in a row during his 58-match tenure at Brighton.  I tried to check that on the internet and got a partial confirmation here; I love how he cites starting the same XI as a goal of his.

Does the NFL Need Yellow Cards?

Check out this embarrassing footage of Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen attempting to draw an unnecessary roughness penalty on a KC defender Nick Bolton.  Seriously, that is some Neymar-level embellishment there.  Jim Nantz and Tony Romo made fun of Allen but frankly they should have roasted him for that crap.  Makes it harder to take the true hits seriously.

Now That's Playing Advantage

BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W sends along this example of determination.  I count four possible fouls on the way to putting the ball in the net.  I'm also amazed that the referee didn't blow the whistle for one of them.  He was trailing the play by a bit but we'll give him credit for playing advantage until the sequence was done.

Are You Ready for Yellow Balls?

The yellow winter ball makes its debut Saturday

A decent slate of EPL fixtures which will feature the new "high visibility" Puma ball.  Also, some UEFA World Cup qualifiers if you're into that kind of thing.

Ooh, even I'll get up at 7:30 Saturday for Spurs - Man Unite (wait, only on Peacock, guess I have no choice but to get up early).  Spurs are solid favorites here but they can be inconsistent.  So are Man United so this one seems up in the air.

Just two 10 am matches.  You can do  Everton - Fulham on USA or West Ham - Burnley on Peacock. Everton are favored but Fulham have had their moments.  The latter has relegation consequences written all over it, which often leads to an interesting match.

The 12:30 feature NBC is Sunderland Arsenal on NBC; will the Gunners do what most have failed to do this year, namely suggest that the Black Cats are punching above their weight so far?   This is followed by the now regular 3 pm feature match that on paper doesn't look that enticing; Chelsea - Wolverhampton sounds like a mismatch to me.

Oh bollocks, there are four at 9 am on Sunday and all look pretty good.  We obviously will go with Brentford - Newcastle (Peacock).  This will be a very tricky test for Newcastle since we haven't done well on the road; Opta agrees and has Newcastle at 38, Brentford 36 and draw at 26.  Aston Villa vs Bournemouth is the USA game.  Though Villa are favored, this should still be a highly watchable contest.  Then there's Crystal Palace - Brighton (Peacock) who sit 9th and 10th in the table respectively, separated by just a point.  Other choice is Nottingham Forest - Leeds (Peacock), which could be an interesting early look at relegation candidates.

The matchweek closes with a heavyweight matchup at 11:30 between Man City and Liverpool on USA. Recent form and home field advantage make City the prohibitive favorite here.

Then, we have an international break.  They are down to serious stuff in UEFA WC qualifying with the final two matchdays of group play.  First place gets you in, second place gets you into a playoff for four more spots.  There are several 1-2 matchups.  We defiinitely recommend France - Ukraine on Thursday and Poland - Netherlands on Friday.  Which matchday 10 fixtures will be critical can change based on matchday 9 results.  Picking based on current standings, we go with Italy - Norway on Sunday, Germany - Slovakia on Monday and either Denmark - Scotland or Spain - Turkiye on Tuesday.  All matches are at 2:45.  Should be some good viewing.

The USMNT has two friendlies - Paraguay 5 pm on Saturday (11/15) and Uruguay on Tuesday (11/18) at 7 pm.  Paraguay are ranked just  39th but Uruguay are 15th, one spot ahead of the USA.  We'll be looking to see if they can build on positives from last international window - mostly a more connected style of play.

A little slower than recent weeks but plenty to do.

We Live in Interesting Times

Well, what would you call it when a quarter of the way through the season, Bournemouth and Sunderland are in the top four?  

A Must Win Match in October?

 Murphy's strike gets Newcastle an early lead

Newcastle's home fixture with Fulham sure felt like it.  We expected a tough fight from the Cottagers and we got one.  The Magpies started well and got a goal from Jacob Murphy at 18 minutes.  Alas, a second proved elusive and they paid for it when Fulham levelled things at 56 minutes.  Newcastle did not lack for chances to go ahead but with full time looming the score remained 1-1.  Finally, Bruno pounced on a rebound in the 90th minute for the game winner.  Great work from Osula to generate the initial shot that set up Guimaraes, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.

I only half kid that this was a must win match.  A loss would have left the Magpies in 17th and a draw just 16th.  As it is, the win only lifted them to 12th.  Yes, it's early in the season but at some point, the hole was going to be too deep to be relevant this season.  

A Slew of Upsets

We will not lose faith in Opta after one weekend but there were a bunch of results that went against their forecasts:

- Aston Villa managed a 1-0 win over Man City.  The stats say maybe the Villans were lucky to get the win but they sure played tough.  Bad news is that the rejuvenated Buendia suffered some type of foot injury and details about his expected return aren't available yet.

- Sunderland scored late to take all three points at Stamford Bridge in a 2-1 win over Chelsea; you can see Talbi's dramatic late winner here.

- Liverpool continued to stumble, suffering their fourth straight league defeat at the hands of Brentford; my own viewing and the stats suggests this was the correct result.

- Spurs crushed Everton at their new digs 3-0; I wouldn't have counted this as an upset except that Opta had the Toffees as decent favorites.  

Results Elsewhere

- Arsenal slipped past Crystal Palace 1-0 to stay in first.

- Despite hopes for a more competitive fixture, Man United were clearly the stronger side in a 4-2 win over Brighton.

- Bournemouth cut off any thought of a new manager bounce for Sean Dyche and Nottingham Forest with a 2-0 win that put them in second place.

- Burnley heaped more misery on Vitor Pereira and Wolves as the Clarets grabbed a goal at 90+5 to take get a 3-2 win; here is Foster's game winner.

- Likewise, Leeds made things worse for West Ham with a 2-1 win.

Those last three results put Forest, West Ham and Wolves solidly in the bottom three.

Sunderland in Fourth?

Roger Le Bris has Sunderland in fourth
Photo by HENRY NICHOLLS/AFP via Getty Images

Most prognostics protagonists people who do EPL predictions saw the Black Cats as a relegation favorite.  Instead, through nine matches they have 17 points and sit fourth in the table.  Only Arsenal have allowed fewer goals than the seven conceded by Sunderland. 

Two things though.  The win at Chelsea aside, Sunderland's schedule to date has not been the most rigorous.  They haven't played any top five sides and the average position of their opponents is 13.  Second, the expected goals stats suggest they may be on a lucky streak.  They've scored 11 with an xG of 9.4 and conceded 7 with an xGC of 10.8.  Putting them together, xgscore.io calculates that, based on expected goals, Sunderland would have 11.4 points rather than 17.  Ranking on adjusted points, Sunderland are 13th.  The xG differences may not be just luck but it will be interesting to see how they fare going forward.

The Kiss of Death?

Reports say that the West Ham board is backing Nuno Espirito Santo "for the foreseeable future" and sound prepared to be active in the January transfer window.  That's really sweet of the board not to fire him after four matches in charge.  More ominously though, how often have we heard ownership voice support for a manager and sack him shortly thereafter?  If I were Nuno, I would not answer my phone or check emails for a while. 

 

We Are Obligated To Carabao It

As defending champions, Newcastle are sort of required to be serious about the EFL Cup.  Not like, say Liverpool, who trotted out basically a full second team lineup against Crystal Palace and unsurprisingly lost 0-3.  Eddie Howe did make some concessions to the congested schedule with a slightly rotated lineup against Spurs.  This is where the depth of the squad may be working out.  Barnes, Elango, Krafth, Willock and Ramsdale all got starts but there wasn't a noticeable drop off in quality.  The Magpies dominated early and were rewarded with a Fabian Schar header goal off a corner in the 24th minute.  Spurs seemed to wake up and the rest of the half was pretty even.  

Newcastle added to the lead early in the second half when Woltemade got another header goal.  Spurs did not go quietly into the night so the two goal cushion was much appreciated.  The stats are pretty close, suggesting the 2-0 final is a bit flattering to the Magpies.  They'll face Fulham in the quarters in December and thanks to the draw, that one is also at SJP.  

Letting the Goals Go By or This Is Not My Beautiful Game (apologies to The Talking Heads)

The first half of the Union - Chicago match at Subaru Park on Sunday might have been the most shithouseryest 45 minutes of soccer I've ever seen.  When the Fire's keeper lingered over the first goal kick less than a minute into the game, you could see where this was going.  They deployed all the classics - respotting the ball on free kicks, preparing to take a throw-in only to hand it to a teammate who would take another 30 seconds off the clock, cynically fouling Union players, and writhing on the ground after being fouled.  Two parties aided Chicago in executing the plan - the Union and the referees.  The Union looked like a U12 side with every player packed into one sixth of the field at any given time.  The refs merely offered hand gestures in an attempt to get the Fire to stop stalling rather than flashing a yellow once the strategy was evident.  The worst part was that Chicago generated the better chances too.

The Union goal scorers Iloski and Vassilev
Photo by Carl Gulbish

Fortunately, the U did get smarter in the second half and eventually put up two nice goals at 70 and 75 minutes courtesy of Vassilev and Iloski.  Just when we were starting to feel comfortable, the Union conceded a goal on a corner in the 84th minute.  Great, squeaky bum time.  And sure enough, our old pal Jack Elliott did the deed with a shot from the outside the box at 90+3.  Elliott provided perhaps the night's only moment of class as he declined to celebrate the clutch goal out of respect for his time here.  It's a shame the fans could not reciprocate, as he was booed several times during the match.

So, onto PKs we went, since they don't do extra time in the first round matches.  The critical miss came when Waterman  hit the cross bar on Chicago's fourth attempt.  Bueno "buried" the fifth take (actually it was a cheeky ball on the ground) and the Union escaped with a win.  This game was so ugly, there was nearly a fight during the shootout between Blake, Chicago keeper Brady and I forget who between one of the kicks.You can see the whole PK shootout - including a little bit of the dust up - here.

Aside from the aestethics, the statistics suggest some real issues.  Though the U had more shots (16/13), shots on target were 5/2 and xG was 1.9/.9, both favor Chicago.  In other words, we dodged the bullet here.  Also, for all my bitching about the best of three format, the U really lucked out here; in the old format, they'd be heading to Chicago 2-2 and the Fire with two away goals, i.e. in big trouble.

Just Keep Going

Another busy week.  No early game Saturday, which is always a major disappointment here.  Right.

It does mean a crowded 11 am time slot (clocks turned back in England, remember?) with five matches.  USA chose Burnley - Arsenal.  I might have gone with Crystal Palace - Brentford, two mid-table teams who will probably actually play.  With our faith in Opta a little shaken, we don't understand how Nottingham Forest are slight favorites at home versus Man United; talk about no respect.  The other choices are Brighton - Leeds or Fulham - Wolves.  In the latter, we'd look for Fulham to establish that they are not relegation candidates.

The 1:30 feature match looks good with Spurs hosting Chelsea, except it will only be "featured" on Peacock.  Guess the Rutgers Illinois football game is more important.  They try to make up for that with Liverpool - Aston Villa at 4 pm on USA; despite their recent form, the Reds are pretty big favorites over the Villan.  We'll see about that.

Sunday's fare has West Ham- Newcastle at 9 am (turn our clocks back) and Man City vs Bournemouth.  Really looking for Newcastle to build on recent momentum against a struggling West Ham side; we like Nuno but not enough to not want all three points.  On paper City are big favorites over the Cherries.  Don't look now but by the end of the weekend, the Manchester clubs could be 2-3 in the table.

The matchweek concludes with Sunderland vs Everton at 3 pm on USA.  This is a good test for the Black Cats.

Midweek action is Matchweek 4 of Champions League, Europa Cup and Europa Conference League.  Some classic and not-so classic fixtures.  In the former category we have Liverpool - Real Madrid, Man City -Dortmund and maybe Spurs - Copenhagen.  In the latter we have Arsenal - Slavia Praha, Grab Bag Qarabag FK - Chelsea and Newcastle - Athletic Club (better known as Athletic Bilbao).

Thursday's Europa Cup fixture between Aston Villa and Maccabi Tel-aviv in Birmingham has drawn more than its share of attention for unfortunate reasons.    Local law enforce sought to prevent ticket sales to M. Tel-aviv supporters based on fears of violence.  The club then decided not to accept any ticket allocation from Aston Villa.  The initial attempt to ban supporters has drawn attention/criticism from many quarters, including the British government.  Though M. Tel-aviv does have a record of hoolaganism, this seems more about political tensions than just unruly fans.  

MLS playoffs continue with the second matches in all of the best-of-three series.  The Union will be in Chicago on Saturday at 5:30.  Note that except for Charlotte losing to NYCFC, all the favorites came through "unscathed."

Just keep plugging away, an international break is coming shortly.

The Dropped Points Are Adding Up

Hmm, Newcastle's Champions League performances have been better than their EPL results.

Shoulda Watched Crystal Palace - Bournemouth

For nearly forty minutes, the Brighton - Newcastle contest offered little in the way of interest.  Competitive does not equal compelling.  Dennis was bored enough that he texted me at about 35 minutes to say he didn't have the attention span for this and headed off to run errands.  So of course, Danny Welbeck scored shortly thereafter and I texted Dennis that the goal was on him.

The ageless Danny Welback sank Newcastle with a brace
Photo:Gareth Fuller

The second half was a better watch, with the Magpies finally on the front foot.  They were rewarded with this "cheeky" goal from Voldemort.  Ironically, earlier in the match, I had texted that he'll never beat with your feet and he then pulls off that goal.  Okay, with the momentum, the draw looked good and a game winner was not out of the question.  Not so fast Sparky.  Welbeck struck with his second of the match at 84 minutes, completely against the run of play.  Dan Burn had made a solid tackle but the ball went right to Welbeck, who did not miss.

Small No consolation that xG was 1.35 - .91 favor the Magpies and/or that the other stats suggest a draw would have been a fair result.  Newcastle now sit in 14th, just four points above the relegation zone.  Not really fearing that fate but we are now at least three points short of a low expectation prediction through eight matches.  

Speaking of Crystal Palace - Bournemouth

I was only half joking about how I would have been happier watching this one.  I did note last week this looked really good on paper and it turned out even better in real life.  If you have the time, check out the full match highlights here. This had everything, lots of attacking, plenty of goals, tough refereeing decisions, and - most dramatically - last minute fireworks.  Maybe the best match of the season so far.  Would have been a great day to be at Selhurst Park.

A Greek Tragedy (hat tip Charlie O)

Nottingham Forest gave a good account of themselves in a scoreless first half against Chelsea.  Too bad for them that they had to play the second half, during which they conceded three. Rebecca Lowe had barely begun the post game highlights when word came down that Ange Postecoglou had been sacked.

Postecoglou: Remind me again why I took this job
Photo:Mike Egerton/PA

This is a sad story, a Greek tragedy if you will, that has its roots, IMHO, in the personality of their
owner, Evangelos Marinakis.  Recall, late last season as then manager Nuno Espirito Santo was leading the team to a top 10 finish and a spot in the Conference League, Marinakis stormed onto the field and berated Santo in front of his players after a 2-2 draw with Leicester. This summer, after signing Nuno to a new three-year deal in June, Marinakis brought in Edu to oversee football operations.  Santo and Edu did not get along and Santo said publically that the new hire had damaged his already fragile relationship with Marinakis.  We can argue whether Nuno should have aired that dirty laundry (probably not) but it created the situation wherein a bad start to Forest's season gave Marinakis the opening to sack Santo three matches in.  So in comes Postecoglou, who proceeds to go winless over eight matches across three competitions, notching two draws and six losses.  Okay, not a great start.  Still, eight matches was enough for Marinakis to know that Postecoglou's not his man?

I have rooted for Nottingham Forest in the past but now won't mind seeing them free fall back into the Championship Division.

The Rodney Dangerfield of Managers

Readers may detect a pro-Nuno bias in my reporting of the above story and you would be correct.  This guy has gotten so little credit for the work he's done at Wolves, Spurs and Nottingham Forest.  Check out the table below on how teams fared with Nuno and after his departure:

You hear crap like we need someone other than Santo to take us to the next level.  Exactly what is this next level they reference?  Certainly doesn't look like a higher level.

But Wait...

There may be a happier ending to the Nottingham Forest tale. BFS all-time favorite Sean Dyche has been hired as the new manager.  We look forward to awesome press conferences like this going forward.

"Conversation" That Definitely Took Place

Dennis (at 36 minutes of Spurs - Aston Villa): Morgan Rogers has been actively bad this season.  He's really got to figure his shit out.

Dennis (at 37 minutes, after Morgan's goal): I made that happen.

This is what Dennis "made happen."  This was a great match for Villa fans and for neutrals; for Spurs fans, not so much.

Quick Tour of Results Elsewhere

- Liverpool lost its third straight league match, falling to Man United 1-2 on an 84th minute goal from Harry Maguire

- Arsenal (1-0 over Fulham) and Man City (2-0 over Everton) are 1-2 in the table

- Leeds, West Ham and Wolves all lost, suggesting they are definitely relegation candidates

Keeper Assist

As referenced at the top, Newcaste are having better luck in the Champions League.  Though it took a while to register on the scoreboard, the Magpies were clearly the dominant side here, putting up a 3-0 win over Benfica.  The goal that pretty much sealed things was a simple breakaway triggered by a Nick Pope pass that ended with a fine finish by Harvey Barnes; you can see the keeper assisted goal pretty much from Nick Pope's perspective in this week's YouTubeableMoment.

A solid match week for the EPL as the six sides outscored their opponents 19-2.  All but Spurs (0-0 draw with Monaco) came away with three points.

The Come From Behind Eagles

Nottingham Forest had "help" in 2-0 win over Porto

Belying their name, the Go Ahead Eagles fell behind very quickly to Aston Villa in their Europa Cup match.  But the Villans fell victim to the old bugaboo of not putting up a second goal.  They proceeded to give up the equalizer on a defensive miscue aided by a deflection, then conceded the game winner in the 61st minute; both were against the run of play.  Particularly galling about this loss was that Emi Buendia soared a 79th minute PK over the cross bar.  With the expanded group stage schedule, this 1-2 loss is probably not a killer, just really annoying.

Sean Dyche had a better time of things in his debut with Nottingham Forest, notching a 2-0 win over Porto.  Does look like he had some divine intervention, as I see Jesus got one of the goals.

Messing with Wordle Is One Thing

The global outage that disrupted internet functions shut down the semi-automated offside  technology for much of the West Ham - Brentford.  Like it wasn't bad enough that all our NY Times games were messed up.

Fall Back But No Yellow Balls Yet

DST ends in England but you'll have to wait 2 weeks
for the appearance of yellow balls

This being the last Sunday in October, England ends daylight savings time this weekend and the Sunday kickoff times reflect that.  I was mistaken though in that I thought the change meant the premier of the yellow balls.   As detailed here, we won't see them until 11/8.

If I am to believe Opta, which I swore a few weeks ago that I would, the best match of the weekend is Man United hosting Brighton; well, it is the Saturday 12:30 feature match. The Red Devils, even at Old Trafford, are only marginal favorites here.  

I want to believe Opta as they have Newcastle at 61% for the win and 21% for a draw hosting Fulham at 10 am Saturday on USA.  These are two sides that have somewhat disappointed so far this year.  Your other option at 10 am is Chelsea - Sunderland (that's 7th place Sunderland to you) on Peacock.  There is no 7:30 match (oh darn) but there is a special 3 pm fixture between Brentford and Liverpool on USA.  

Sunday is a bit crowded thanks to Thursday matches in Europa Cup and Conference League.  There are four choices at 10 (clocks back in England, remember).  Easy pick for us is Aston Villa hosting Man City on USA; this is an in-form City side right now but until their stumble against the Go Ahead Eagles, so were Aston Villa.  Other options (all on Peacock) are a London derby featuring Arsenal - Crystal Palace, Bournemouth hosting Nottingham Forestat and a relegation special between Wolves and Burnley.  The 12:30 match on NBC is Everton - Spurs; Opta is really testing me this week as I try to figure out how Everton are at 41% and Spurs just 32% (27% chance of draw).  Just reporting the numbers folks.

Almost forgot, you can get an early start to the weekend with a relegation-relevant contest between Leeds and West Ham Friday at 3 pm on USA.

This week's midweek stuff is Carabao Cup round of 16 on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Here are the fixtures:

Most intriguing match is defending champion Newcastle (I love saying that) versus Spurs.  Arsenal -Brighton looks like a tough fixture too.  Note the appearance of Wrexham on Tuesday.  The Championship season isn't going great for them but they did get this far in the Carabao Cup.

Sunday the Union start what we hope is a lengthy run in the MLS playoffs with a home match against Chicago at 5:30; we will be at Subaru Park for this one. The format is explained here.  We're not a big fan of soccer playoffs anyway and the first round seems goofy to us.  It's a best of three with the higher seed getting two home matches.  There are no ties; if level at full time, they go straight to PKs.  The argument is that with two home matches, the higher seed has a better chance of advancing than if they did a home and away aggregate setup.  That is probably true but soccer playoffs are such a crapshoot, how much help is it really?  I am mildly comforted that Opta has the Union at 55% for the win, though they do have the chance of a shootout at 23%.

I think you can take next Thursday and Friday off.

Signs of Life for USMNT

Light viewing but did see both USMNT friendlies and a handful of UEFA WC qualifiers.

Two Wrights

Recognizing that friendlies can be highly misleading based on the opponent and how strong a team that opponent fields, the consensus is that the performances against Ecuador and Australia were a step forward for the team.  Though they only earned a 1-1 draw against Ecuador, I thought the US looked better here than in the 2-1 win over Australia.  The passing and overall play was more connected than I remember from the Gold Cup performances.  Folarin Balogun certainly cemented his position on the roster with a goal and generally dangerous attacking play.  

Haji Wright had a brace vs Australia
(Jamie Schwaberow/ISI Photos/USSF via Getty Images)

The opening minutes versus Australia were chaotic and disappointing after the performance against Ecuador.  The good news is that they rallied behind two goals from Haji Wright.  Check out the pass from Cristian Roldan that send Wright through for the first goal, this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Both Wright and Roldan saw their stock rise based on their play versus Australia.  The Aussie match was surprisingly chippy and saw Christian Pulisic leave with some type of hamstring injury.  The extent as of publication was unknown.

So we see it as progress for the team and the first hopeful signs in awhile that the team might not totally flame out in the 2026 World Cup.  A low bar I grant but it's what we got right now.

Check out this NYT's  summary of the potential make-up of the US World Cup roster, including the opinions of CHYSC alum Henry Bushnell.

We Knew Them When

No current Union players were in action in the friendlies but we did see some familiar faces.  Keeper Matt Freese featured in goal for both matches. His player ratings were in the high 6's; decent enough and the position is probably his for the time being.  Mark McKenzie got a cameo versus Ecuador and started in the Australia match; he looked okay out there.  Brendan Aaronson came on in the second half versus Australia; his ratings were mid 6's but he looked better than that to me, creating some decent scoring chances.  Freese is maybe a lock to make the WC squad, McKenzie and Aaronson may be in the mix but with nothing assured for either of them.

Magpies in Action

Woltemade (#11) watches his shoulder goal go in

It was a good international window for Woltemade and Gordon but not so much for Elanga.  The
German got a header (actually it was off his shoulder) in the 1-0 win over Northern Ireland.  Gordon got England off and running with the opening goal in the Three Lions 5-0 romp over Latvia.

Anthony Elanga did not feature in Sweden's 0-2 loss to Switzerland and only came on in the second half in the 0-1 loss to Kosovo.  His frustration boiled over in the tunnel as he was overheard to say:

"The f****** system has to go."

Not sure if he meant he was questioning the choice of an out-of-form Alexander Isak in both matches or the two striker system employed by Jon Dahl Tomasson.  He tried to be a bit more measured talking directly to the press.  In a related story, Tomasson was sacked after the Kosovo loss, with Sweden's chances of making the 2026 WC hanging by a thread.

Busy Again

Hope you enjoyed the down time because the schedule is crowded again.

The EPL has some tasty stuff and one of the better fixtures features Newcastle away to Brighton (10 am Saturday on USA).  Opta sees this as highly competitive and I agree; the two sides are 11/12 in the table with identical 2/3/2 records and 9 points.  I can easily see a draw here and would not be disappointed.

Sunday has two good fixtures with Spurs - Aston Villa at 9 and Liverpool - Man United at 11:30; both are on USA.  The former looks exactly like Brighton - Newcastle; Opta has it as very competitive.  Opta sees the latter as a blowout for Liverpool but recall the Reds are on a three match losing streak.

Like London derbies?  We have two, with Fulham hosting Arsenal (the feature 12:30 on NBC) and West Ham versus Brentford at 3 pm on Monday (USA).  Like relegation battle previews?  Based on preseason predictions, there are two relegation specials, though Sunderland might beg to differ.  Sunderland, currently in 9th but tagged to be in a relegation battle, host winless Wolves at 10 on Saturday (Peacock) while Burnley and Leeds square off at the same time, also on Peacock.

Rounding out the match week are Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea for the early birds (7:30 Saturday on USA), Crystal Palace - Bournemouth (Saturday at 10 on Peacock - this is probably a good watch) and Man City hosting Everton, also at 10 am on Peacock.

Saturday is the final match day of the MLS season, also known as "Decision Day."  For the Union the only two decisions are:

- who to play and who to rest in advance of the playoffs

- where to display the Supporters Shield

Okay, kind of cocky and snotty on my part but I don't want to undersell this trophy.  Especially after looking at team payrolls, which show the Union as the third lowest in MLS, ahead of only CF Montreal and Real Salt Lake.  Anyway, the U end the season at Charlotte, then await their playoff opponent.

There's also a full Champions League schedule on Tuesday and Wednesday followed by Europa Cup and Conference League action on Thursday.  For BFS staff this means Newcastle hosting Benfica on Tuesday at 3 pm and Aston Villa traveling to face the Go Ahead Eagles.  Though that last team sounds like a U-12 travel squad, they are actually in the first tier of Dutch football.  

It's going to be crowded like this for several weeks.

Hardware!

The Union collected their second MLS trophy with a 1-0 win over NYCFC and a good weekend for BFS sides.

Doop!

NYCFC came to town on Saturday, presenting the Union with a chance to clinch the Eastern Conference and the Supporters Shield (best record in MLS).  The evening got off to an auspicious start as our usual parking lot was filled 45 minutes before kickoff: and we were lucky the back up lot could fit us in but only because we were in a small car.  Once inside we decided to go for the traditional sausage sandwich only to be shocked to see that the sausages had shrunk to the size of hot dogs, making the bun to meat ratio disturbingly low.

Fortunately, things improved from there.  The Union were definitely the more adventurous side, generating several dangerous looking chances in front of the NYCFC goal.  We were lucky that the visitors fortuitously skyed a shot over a virtually wide open net early.  Finally, one of the Union plays paid off as a Mikael Uhre shot on goal deflected off a defender and found the back of the net.  Uhre's shot was going to be on target so he still got credit for the goal, which you can see here.

Alas, that was to be the only goal, which meant 50+ minutes of "squeaky bum" time as the Union defended their slim lead.  Both sides saw goals chalked off for offside.  NYCFC had another golden opportunity late but failed to capitalize.  This one was tight right up to the final whistle.  The U did have the better of shots and shots on target but, likely reflecting those two great chances, NYCFC had the higher xG at 1.3-1.1.

And this time they had the real Shield

The final whistle triggered some serious celebrating, with the players taking a victory lap amidst fireworks, some victory speeches and the lifting of the real Supporters Shield (not the fake one they had in 2020).  In true Philly fashion, owner Jay Sugarman got more than just a smattering of boos from the stands based on his tight wallet approach to running the team.  Fans were more magnanimous in recognizing the work of Sporting Director Ernst Tanner and Manager Bradley Carnell.  

This is a big deal and I'll be the first to jump on those who might say all that matters is the playoffs.  That's not how soccer works in almost any other country and it's gratifying to see that even in playoff crazy USA, the MLS awards a trophy for the best record. 

Good Enough

Newcastle certainly controlled things at home versus Nottingham Forest but took their time securing the three points.  After a scoreless first half, Bruno Guimaraes finally got the Magpies on the board with a sweet curling shot from just outside the box; we make his goal in the 58th minute this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Though Forest never really threatened (.3 xG), neither could Newcastle put the game to bed.  Finally, former Magpie Elliot Anderson fouled Guimaraes in the box and Voldemort Woltemade cheekily dispatched the PK.  Case closed.  

He who must not be named doubled Newcastle's lead with this PK
Photo: Getty Images

Certainly the defense is well-organized at this point but the offense is still struggling to convert the chances, as witnessed by the xG of 3.45 yet only two goals on the scoreboard.  I'm taking comfort that this is a revamped attack so we might not see great results right away.

Newcastle home fans and Forest traveling supporters were both incorrect in chanting "you're getting sacked in the morning" at Ange Postecoglu in the closing minutes of the match.  As of publication, he is still the manager and will likely still be in charge for next week's match versus Chelsea.  But maybe not after that.

And Then There Were None

Crystal Palace tasted defeat for the first time this season at the hands of Everton courtesy of a stoppage time goal by Jack Grealish.  Based on the highlight reel, that 2-1 contest was probably the best choice of the four Sunday 9 am matches.  Aston Villa did get all three points at home versus Burnley as expected; the 2-1 final suggests that it might not have been as convincing as they would like.

Liverpool lost for the third time in eight days, falling to Chelsea 2-1 in a feature match that lived up to its billing.  Dennis and I agree that Garnacho is just as annoying in Chelsea blue as he was in Man United red.  

Spurs came away with a 2-1 win at Leeds but my eyes and the stats suggest that this was a draw at best.  Leeds were better at shots (16/9), shots on target (4/3) and xG (1.68/.53).  Despite that, the win is still worth three points and Spurs are second in the table.  They sit one point behind Arsenal, who were 2-0 winners over West Ham.  Man City, despite being singularly unimpressive in a 1-0 win over Brentford, did keep pace with the top five, as did Bournemouth, who scored three goals after the 77th minute to beat Fulham 3-1.

Throwing in the Towel

Excuse me sir, you are not allowed to use that towel
Getty Images

I had meant to comment on this issue last week but ran out of time.  In the Newcastle - Arsenal match, the Gunners Riccardo Calafiori was stopped by referee Jarred Gillett from using a towel to dry the ball prior to a throw-in.  At the time, I thought it was because Calafiori had "stolen" it from Newcastle keeper Nick Pope.  Turns out that wasn't it.  As discussed here, in the Premier League, players may use towels to dry the ball only if both teams agree to it prior to the match.  In the lower tiers, towels are banned completely.  The main reason cited is to eliminate drying as a means of wasting time but there was also some concern that the home teams likely had better access to towels than the away side.

International Break

Even the Chestnut Hill Youth Sports Club is observing the break so no games to watch or to referee.  Well, except for UEFA World Cup qualifers and some friendlies.  I believe the CHYSC hiatus is driven by the national holiday and historical experience that too many players are out of town.

The USMNT does have a friendly Friday night at 8:30 versus Ecuador and another on Tuesday at 9 pm versus Australia; both are on TNT.  Not always a big viewer of friendlies but feeling like it's time to check in on the US personnel.