Plenty of Disappointment to Go Around

Biggest disappointment was Newcastle's 3-1 loss at West Ham but there were others too.  At least the Union advanced.

Now You Get the New Manager Bounce?

West Ham had shown no signs of a new manager bounce since Nuno's arrival. They picked a lousy time to find it, handing Newcastle a 3-1 loss.  We can ask how much to attribute to the new manager bounce versus lousy play from the Magpies.

Botman after the own goal - you can read the f-bomb in his head

About four minutes in West Ham hit the post.  Seconds later, Jacob Murphy gave Newcastle an early lead with another of his patented shots from the right side of the box.  The announcers were quick to frame this as a microcosm of the Hammers' season to date and were even quicker to talk like Newcastle would surely add to West Ham's misery.  Seems like the Newcastle players were listening because from that point on, they played like the three points were their birth right.  With the Magpies easily tackled off the ball and misplacing passes, momentum swung quickly.  Paqueta got the equalizer on a decent shot that Pope might have done better with.  Then, Botman surrendered an own goal in first half stoppage time; yeah it was a bit of bad luck but it was the result of West Ham pressure.

Some halftime changes didn't really affect things much as West Ham continued to tackle and Newcastle continued to make errant passes.  Unlike at Fulham, a comeback, far from seeming inevitable, looked unlikely.  It never materialized.  West Ham added a third in stoppage time and the 3-1 final looked fully deserved.  

Hard to move up the table if you don't get points on the road.  Put it down to a hangover from the mid-week win over Spurs in the Carabao Cup?

Disappointment Elsewhere

Certainly can't be too optimistic about playing Liverpool at Anfield but I did have some hope for Villa; they are usually competitive regardless of opponent or venue.  Though they weren't awful, the 2-0 final was disappointing.  Stats clearly tilted in Liverpool's favor; the xG of .42 for Villa stands out.  

Also had some hope for Spurs taking on Chelsea at home.  Nope, Spurs looked like they suffering from the same hangover as Newcastle.  They were never in the match.  The final was only 0-1 but xG at .13-3.50 was how the game looked on TV.  

And there was some thought that maybe Bournemouth's recent form was going to hold up at Man City but the 3-1 final favor the Citizens suggests maybe Bournemouth aren't really top six yet.  The Cherries didn't go quietly into the night, rallying from an 0-1 deficit to briefly level things before Haaland's second of the night put Man City up for good.

Stop Questioning Opta

Last week we noted our disbelief that Opta had Nottingham Forest as a slight favorite against Man United.  The 2-2 draw there should be a reminder that maybe these guys do know what they are doing.

Arsenal continued to set the pace with a 2-0 win at Burnley.  Sunderland grabbed another point with a 1-1 draw against Everton to stay in the top four.  Fulham bounced back as expected and kept Wolves winless and Leed's 3-0 loss at Brighton ensured that they stayed close in the relegation race.

A Header That Will Curl Your Hair

Burn launches the header to give Newcastle an early lead

So maybe Newcastle are just a cup team this year.  After their stinker at West Ham, they easily handled The Athletic Club 2-0 in Champions League action.  Check out the "aesthetically pleasing header" from Dan Burn that put the Mapgies up 1-0.  An easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment; I don't recall ever seeing a header with quite that much curl.  

Who's in Charge: Part I

Dennis alerted me to the fact that there will be just one EPL match on Boxing Day this year -  Man United vs Newcastle.   It used to be everybody played, then they started spreading the games over 2-3 days but you could count on three or four matches on Boxing Day proper.  The simple reason for this year's dearth is that contractual obligations to broadcasters require 33 weekends of fixtures; too many matches on Friday would violate those terms.  The EPL spin keeps referencing the expanded European competitions (eight instead of six mid-week fixtures); I haven't figured out exactly how that took away an EPL weekend.  There's also reference to player burnout.  A fair concern but again not clear how playing more games on a Friday versus Saturday or Sunday is going to help that.  The NYT has a useful history behind Boxing Day fixtures here.  It does make it clear who really runs things though doesn't it?

Keeper Howlers the Day After Halloween

Kai (27) set up Tai for the Union's 2nd

The Union had a much easier time of it in Chicago than they did at Subaru Park the previous Sunday.  Chicago's regular keeper Chris Brady was out with injury and his replacement Jeffrey Gal gifted a goal to Baribo in the 8th minute.  Doing the gifting for a second goal was Kai Wagner, who put a cross right onto Baribo's head for a quick second goal and a 2-0 lead after just 16 minutes.  We'll make this Kai to Tai hook-up this week's YouTubeableMoment - US Version.

In an alternate universe (glass half empty), the match could have taken a distressingly different path from here.  In the 32nd minute, the U were called for a foul in the box but Blake saved the PK. Minutes later, Gal made his second howler of the night, which Damiani was more than happy to convert into a 3-0 lead.  About five minutes after that, Iloski committed a foul that bordered between reckless and excessive force; fortunately the call was yellow.  So instead of being up just 2-1 and down a man, they were up 3-0 and full strength.  There was a piece of luck in the second half too when a deflected goal of a Blake clearance was waved off because it hit Guitterez's arm.  

The Union's reward for this win is three weeks off - see below.

Who's in Charge: Part II

As noted above, the Union beat Chicago on 11/1 to win their best of three first round series.  They advance to the Conference Semi-finals which will be held - wait for it (literally) - the weekend of 11/22-23.  So the Union (and Vancouver and LAFC) will have three weeks off.  This is because some of the nutty best-of-three series won't wrap up until this weekend and the following weekend is an international break.  Brilliant.  Yes, the international break isn't down to the MLS but they could have easily worked around it without leaving some teams stranded for three weeks.  For example, a two-round home and away aggregate would have allowed them to get the conference semis in before the break and then all teams would have the same two week break.  Instead, we get playoffs interruptus.  All hail our Cupertino overlords.

Weird Stat of the Week

Man City's second leading scorer in EPL action is Maxime Esteve of Burnley, who was unlucky enough to be credited with two own goals in the Clarets 1-5 loss to City.  Deductive reasoning tells us therefore  that City has no one with more than one EPL goal.  But, I guess it doesn't matter if Haaland has 13.

Another Weird Stat of the Week

BFS Goalkeeper Consultant Graham R reports that during the Brighton - Leeds match it was pointed out that Fabian Hurzeler has never named the same starting XI two games in a row during his 58-match tenure at Brighton.  I tried to check that on the internet and got a partial confirmation here; I love how he cites starting the same XI as a goal of his.

Does the NFL Need Yellow Cards?

Check out this embarrassing footage of Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen attempting to draw an unnecessary roughness penalty on a KC defender Nick Bolton.  Seriously, that is some Neymar-level embellishment there.  Jim Nantz and Tony Romo made fun of Allen but frankly they should have roasted him for that crap.  Makes it harder to take the true hits seriously.

Now That's Playing Advantage

BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W sends along this example of determination.  I count four possible fouls on the way to putting the ball in the net.  I'm also amazed that the referee didn't blow the whistle for one of them.  He was trailing the play by a bit but we'll give him credit for playing advantage until the sequence was done.

Are You Ready for Yellow Balls?

The yellow winter ball makes its debut Saturday

A decent slate of EPL fixtures which will feature the new "high visibility" Puma ball.  Also, some UEFA World Cup qualifiers if you're into that kind of thing.

Ooh, even I'll get up at 7:30 Saturday for Spurs - Man Unite (wait, only on Peacock, guess I have no choice but to get up early).  Spurs are solid favorites here but they can be inconsistent.  So are Man United so this one seems up in the air.

Just two 10 am matches.  You can do  Everton - Fulham on USA or West Ham - Burnley on Peacock. Everton are favored but Fulham have had their moments.  The latter has relegation consequences written all over it, which often leads to an interesting match.

The 12:30 feature NBC is Sunderland Arsenal on NBC; will the Gunners do what most have failed to do this year, namely suggest that the Black Cats are punching above their weight so far?   This is followed by the now regular 3 pm feature match that on paper doesn't look that enticing; Chelsea - Wolverhampton sounds like a mismatch to me.

Oh bollocks, there are four at 9 am on Sunday and all look pretty good.  We obviously will go with Brentford - Newcastle (Peacock).  This will be a very tricky test for Newcastle since we haven't done well on the road; Opta agrees and has Newcastle at 38, Brentford 36 and draw at 26.  Aston Villa vs Bournemouth is the USA game.  Though Villa are favored, this should still be a highly watchable contest.  Then there's Crystal Palace - Brighton (Peacock) who sit 9th and 10th in the table respectively, separated by just a point.  Other choice is Nottingham Forest - Leeds (Peacock), which could be an interesting early look at relegation candidates.

The matchweek closes with a heavyweight matchup at 11:30 between Man City and Liverpool on USA. Recent form and home field advantage make City the prohibitive favorite here.

Then, we have an international break.  They are down to serious stuff in UEFA WC qualifying with the final two matchdays of group play.  First place gets you in, second place gets you into a playoff for four more spots.  There are several 1-2 matchups.  We defiinitely recommend France - Ukraine on Thursday and Poland - Netherlands on Friday.  Which matchday 10 fixtures will be critical can change based on matchday 9 results.  Picking based on current standings, we go with Italy - Norway on Sunday, Germany - Slovakia on Monday and either Denmark - Scotland or Spain - Turkiye on Tuesday.  All matches are at 2:45.  Should be some good viewing.

The USMNT has two friendlies - Paraguay 5 pm on Saturday (11/15) and Uruguay on Tuesday (11/18) at 7 pm.  Paraguay are ranked just  39th but Uruguay are 15th, one spot ahead of the USA.  We'll be looking to see if they can build on positives from last international window - mostly a more connected style of play.

A little slower than recent weeks but plenty to do.

We Live in Interesting Times

Well, what would you call it when a quarter of the way through the season, Bournemouth and Sunderland are in the top four?  

A Must Win Match in October?

 Murphy's strike gets Newcastle an early lead

Newcastle's home fixture with Fulham sure felt like it.  We expected a tough fight from the Cottagers and we got one.  The Magpies started well and got a goal from Jacob Murphy at 18 minutes.  Alas, a second proved elusive and they paid for it when Fulham levelled things at 56 minutes.  Newcastle did not lack for chances to go ahead but with full time looming the score remained 1-1.  Finally, Bruno pounced on a rebound in the 90th minute for the game winner.  Great work from Osula to generate the initial shot that set up Guimaraes, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.

I only half kid that this was a must win match.  A loss would have left the Magpies in 17th and a draw just 16th.  As it is, the win only lifted them to 12th.  Yes, it's early in the season but at some point, the hole was going to be too deep to be relevant this season.  

A Slew of Upsets

We will not lose faith in Opta after one weekend but there were a bunch of results that went against their forecasts:

- Aston Villa managed a 1-0 win over Man City.  The stats say maybe the Villans were lucky to get the win but they sure played tough.  Bad news is that the rejuvenated Buendia suffered some type of foot injury and details about his expected return aren't available yet.

- Sunderland scored late to take all three points at Stamford Bridge in a 2-1 win over Chelsea; you can see Talbi's dramatic late winner here.

- Liverpool continued to stumble, suffering their fourth straight league defeat at the hands of Brentford; my own viewing and the stats suggests this was the correct result.

- Spurs crushed Everton at their new digs 3-0; I wouldn't have counted this as an upset except that Opta had the Toffees as decent favorites.  

Results Elsewhere

- Arsenal slipped past Crystal Palace 1-0 to stay in first.

- Despite hopes for a more competitive fixture, Man United were clearly the stronger side in a 4-2 win over Brighton.

- Bournemouth cut off any thought of a new manager bounce for Sean Dyche and Nottingham Forest with a 2-0 win that put them in second place.

- Burnley heaped more misery on Vitor Pereira and Wolves as the Clarets grabbed a goal at 90+5 to take get a 3-2 win; here is Foster's game winner.

- Likewise, Leeds made things worse for West Ham with a 2-1 win.

Those last three results put Forest, West Ham and Wolves solidly in the bottom three.

Sunderland in Fourth?

Roger Le Bris has Sunderland in fourth
Photo by HENRY NICHOLLS/AFP via Getty Images

Most prognostics protagonists people who do EPL predictions saw the Black Cats as a relegation favorite.  Instead, through nine matches they have 17 points and sit fourth in the table.  Only Arsenal have allowed fewer goals than the seven conceded by Sunderland. 

Two things though.  The win at Chelsea aside, Sunderland's schedule to date has not been the most rigorous.  They haven't played any top five sides and the average position of their opponents is 13.  Second, the expected goals stats suggest they may be on a lucky streak.  They've scored 11 with an xG of 9.4 and conceded 7 with an xGC of 10.8.  Putting them together, xgscore.io calculates that, based on expected goals, Sunderland would have 11.4 points rather than 17.  Ranking on adjusted points, Sunderland are 13th.  The xG differences may not be just luck but it will be interesting to see how they fare going forward.

The Kiss of Death?

Reports say that the West Ham board is backing Nuno Espirito Santo "for the foreseeable future" and sound prepared to be active in the January transfer window.  That's really sweet of the board not to fire him after four matches in charge.  More ominously though, how often have we heard ownership voice support for a manager and sack him shortly thereafter?  If I were Nuno, I would not answer my phone or check emails for a while. 

 

We Are Obligated To Carabao It

As defending champions, Newcastle are sort of required to be serious about the EFL Cup.  Not like, say Liverpool, who trotted out basically a full second team lineup against Crystal Palace and unsurprisingly lost 0-3.  Eddie Howe did make some concessions to the congested schedule with a slightly rotated lineup against Spurs.  This is where the depth of the squad may be working out.  Barnes, Elango, Krafth, Willock and Ramsdale all got starts but there wasn't a noticeable drop off in quality.  The Magpies dominated early and were rewarded with a Fabian Schar header goal off a corner in the 24th minute.  Spurs seemed to wake up and the rest of the half was pretty even.  

Newcastle added to the lead early in the second half when Woltemade got another header goal.  Spurs did not go quietly into the night so the two goal cushion was much appreciated.  The stats are pretty close, suggesting the 2-0 final is a bit flattering to the Magpies.  They'll face Fulham in the quarters in December and thanks to the draw, that one is also at SJP.  

Letting the Goals Go By or This Is Not My Beautiful Game (apologies to The Talking Heads)

The first half of the Union - Chicago match at Subaru Park on Sunday might have been the most shithouseryest 45 minutes of soccer I've ever seen.  When the Fire's keeper lingered over the first goal kick less than a minute into the game, you could see where this was going.  They deployed all the classics - respotting the ball on free kicks, preparing to take a throw-in only to hand it to a teammate who would take another 30 seconds off the clock, cynically fouling Union players, and writhing on the ground after being fouled.  Two parties aided Chicago in executing the plan - the Union and the referees.  The Union looked like a U12 side with every player packed into one sixth of the field at any given time.  The refs merely offered hand gestures in an attempt to get the Fire to stop stalling rather than flashing a yellow once the strategy was evident.  The worst part was that Chicago generated the better chances too.

The Union goal scorers Iloski and Vassilev
Photo by Carl Gulbish

Fortunately, the U did get smarter in the second half and eventually put up two nice goals at 70 and 75 minutes courtesy of Vassilev and Iloski.  Just when we were starting to feel comfortable, the Union conceded a goal on a corner in the 84th minute.  Great, squeaky bum time.  And sure enough, our old pal Jack Elliott did the deed with a shot from the outside the box at 90+3.  Elliott provided perhaps the night's only moment of class as he declined to celebrate the clutch goal out of respect for his time here.  It's a shame the fans could not reciprocate, as he was booed several times during the match.

So, onto PKs we went, since they don't do extra time in the first round matches.  The critical miss came when Waterman  hit the cross bar on Chicago's fourth attempt.  Bueno "buried" the fifth take (actually it was a cheeky ball on the ground) and the Union escaped with a win.  This game was so ugly, there was nearly a fight during the shootout between Blake, Chicago keeper Brady and I forget who between one of the kicks.You can see the whole PK shootout - including a little bit of the dust up - here.

Aside from the aestethics, the statistics suggest some real issues.  Though the U had more shots (16/13), shots on target were 5/2 and xG was 1.9/.9, both favor Chicago.  In other words, we dodged the bullet here.  Also, for all my bitching about the best of three format, the U really lucked out here; in the old format, they'd be heading to Chicago 2-2 and the Fire with two away goals, i.e. in big trouble.

Just Keep Going

Another busy week.  No early game Saturday, which is always a major disappointment here.  Right.

It does mean a crowded 11 am time slot (clocks turned back in England, remember?) with five matches.  USA chose Burnley - Arsenal.  I might have gone with Crystal Palace - Brentford, two mid-table teams who will probably actually play.  With our faith in Opta a little shaken, we don't understand how Nottingham Forest are slight favorites at home versus Man United; talk about no respect.  The other choices are Brighton - Leeds or Fulham - Wolves.  In the latter, we'd look for Fulham to establish that they are not relegation candidates.

The 1:30 feature match looks good with Spurs hosting Chelsea, except it will only be "featured" on Peacock.  Guess the Rutgers Illinois football game is more important.  They try to make up for that with Liverpool - Aston Villa at 4 pm on USA; despite their recent form, the Reds are pretty big favorites over the Villan.  We'll see about that.

Sunday's fare has West Ham- Newcastle at 9 am (turn our clocks back) and Man City vs Bournemouth.  Really looking for Newcastle to build on recent momentum against a struggling West Ham side; we like Nuno but not enough to not want all three points.  On paper City are big favorites over the Cherries.  Don't look now but by the end of the weekend, the Manchester clubs could be 2-3 in the table.

The matchweek concludes with Sunderland vs Everton at 3 pm on USA.  This is a good test for the Black Cats.

Midweek action is Matchweek 4 of Champions League, Europa Cup and Europa Conference League.  Some classic and not-so classic fixtures.  In the former category we have Liverpool - Real Madrid, Man City -Dortmund and maybe Spurs - Copenhagen.  In the latter we have Arsenal - Slavia Praha, Grab Bag Qarabag FK - Chelsea and Newcastle - Athletic Club (better known as Athletic Bilbao).

Thursday's Europa Cup fixture between Aston Villa and Maccabi Tel-aviv in Birmingham has drawn more than its share of attention for unfortunate reasons.    Local law enforce sought to prevent ticket sales to M. Tel-aviv supporters based on fears of violence.  The club then decided not to accept any ticket allocation from Aston Villa.  The initial attempt to ban supporters has drawn attention/criticism from many quarters, including the British government.  Though M. Tel-aviv does have a record of hoolaganism, this seems more about political tensions than just unruly fans.  

MLS playoffs continue with the second matches in all of the best-of-three series.  The Union will be in Chicago on Saturday at 5:30.  Note that except for Charlotte losing to NYCFC, all the favorites came through "unscathed."

Just keep plugging away, an international break is coming shortly.

The Dropped Points Are Adding Up

Hmm, Newcastle's Champions League performances have been better than their EPL results.

Shoulda Watched Crystal Palace - Bournemouth

For nearly forty minutes, the Brighton - Newcastle contest offered little in the way of interest.  Competitive does not equal compelling.  Dennis was bored enough that he texted me at about 35 minutes to say he didn't have the attention span for this and headed off to run errands.  So of course, Danny Welbeck scored shortly thereafter and I texted Dennis that the goal was on him.

The ageless Danny Welback sank Newcastle with a brace
Photo:Gareth Fuller

The second half was a better watch, with the Magpies finally on the front foot.  They were rewarded with this "cheeky" goal from Voldemort.  Ironically, earlier in the match, I had texted that he'll never beat with your feet and he then pulls off that goal.  Okay, with the momentum, the draw looked good and a game winner was not out of the question.  Not so fast Sparky.  Welbeck struck with his second of the match at 84 minutes, completely against the run of play.  Dan Burn had made a solid tackle but the ball went right to Welbeck, who did not miss.

Small No consolation that xG was 1.35 - .91 favor the Magpies and/or that the other stats suggest a draw would have been a fair result.  Newcastle now sit in 14th, just four points above the relegation zone.  Not really fearing that fate but we are now at least three points short of a low expectation prediction through eight matches.  

Speaking of Crystal Palace - Bournemouth

I was only half joking about how I would have been happier watching this one.  I did note last week this looked really good on paper and it turned out even better in real life.  If you have the time, check out the full match highlights here. This had everything, lots of attacking, plenty of goals, tough refereeing decisions, and - most dramatically - last minute fireworks.  Maybe the best match of the season so far.  Would have been a great day to be at Selhurst Park.

A Greek Tragedy (hat tip Charlie O)

Nottingham Forest gave a good account of themselves in a scoreless first half against Chelsea.  Too bad for them that they had to play the second half, during which they conceded three. Rebecca Lowe had barely begun the post game highlights when word came down that Ange Postecoglou had been sacked.

Postecoglou: Remind me again why I took this job
Photo:Mike Egerton/PA

This is a sad story, a Greek tragedy if you will, that has its roots, IMHO, in the personality of their
owner, Evangelos Marinakis.  Recall, late last season as then manager Nuno Espirito Santo was leading the team to a top 10 finish and a spot in the Conference League, Marinakis stormed onto the field and berated Santo in front of his players after a 2-2 draw with Leicester. This summer, after signing Nuno to a new three-year deal in June, Marinakis brought in Edu to oversee football operations.  Santo and Edu did not get along and Santo said publically that the new hire had damaged his already fragile relationship with Marinakis.  We can argue whether Nuno should have aired that dirty laundry (probably not) but it created the situation wherein a bad start to Forest's season gave Marinakis the opening to sack Santo three matches in.  So in comes Postecoglou, who proceeds to go winless over eight matches across three competitions, notching two draws and six losses.  Okay, not a great start.  Still, eight matches was enough for Marinakis to know that Postecoglou's not his man?

I have rooted for Nottingham Forest in the past but now won't mind seeing them free fall back into the Championship Division.

The Rodney Dangerfield of Managers

Readers may detect a pro-Nuno bias in my reporting of the above story and you would be correct.  This guy has gotten so little credit for the work he's done at Wolves, Spurs and Nottingham Forest.  Check out the table below on how teams fared with Nuno and after his departure:

You hear crap like we need someone other than Santo to take us to the next level.  Exactly what is this next level they reference?  Certainly doesn't look like a higher level.

But Wait...

There may be a happier ending to the Nottingham Forest tale. BFS all-time favorite Sean Dyche has been hired as the new manager.  We look forward to awesome press conferences like this going forward.

"Conversation" That Definitely Took Place

Dennis (at 36 minutes of Spurs - Aston Villa): Morgan Rogers has been actively bad this season.  He's really got to figure his shit out.

Dennis (at 37 minutes, after Morgan's goal): I made that happen.

This is what Dennis "made happen."  This was a great match for Villa fans and for neutrals; for Spurs fans, not so much.

Quick Tour of Results Elsewhere

- Liverpool lost its third straight league match, falling to Man United 1-2 on an 84th minute goal from Harry Maguire

- Arsenal (1-0 over Fulham) and Man City (2-0 over Everton) are 1-2 in the table

- Leeds, West Ham and Wolves all lost, suggesting they are definitely relegation candidates

Keeper Assist

As referenced at the top, Newcaste are having better luck in the Champions League.  Though it took a while to register on the scoreboard, the Magpies were clearly the dominant side here, putting up a 3-0 win over Benfica.  The goal that pretty much sealed things was a simple breakaway triggered by a Nick Pope pass that ended with a fine finish by Harvey Barnes; you can see the keeper assisted goal pretty much from Nick Pope's perspective in this week's YouTubeableMoment.

A solid match week for the EPL as the six sides outscored their opponents 19-2.  All but Spurs (0-0 draw with Monaco) came away with three points.

The Come From Behind Eagles

Nottingham Forest had "help" in 2-0 win over Porto

Belying their name, the Go Ahead Eagles fell behind very quickly to Aston Villa in their Europa Cup match.  But the Villans fell victim to the old bugaboo of not putting up a second goal.  They proceeded to give up the equalizer on a defensive miscue aided by a deflection, then conceded the game winner in the 61st minute; both were against the run of play.  Particularly galling about this loss was that Emi Buendia soared a 79th minute PK over the cross bar.  With the expanded group stage schedule, this 1-2 loss is probably not a killer, just really annoying.

Sean Dyche had a better time of things in his debut with Nottingham Forest, notching a 2-0 win over Porto.  Does look like he had some divine intervention, as I see Jesus got one of the goals.

Messing with Wordle Is One Thing

The global outage that disrupted internet functions shut down the semi-automated offside  technology for much of the West Ham - Brentford.  Like it wasn't bad enough that all our NY Times games were messed up.

Fall Back But No Yellow Balls Yet

DST ends in England but you'll have to wait 2 weeks
for the appearance of yellow balls

This being the last Sunday in October, England ends daylight savings time this weekend and the Sunday kickoff times reflect that.  I was mistaken though in that I thought the change meant the premier of the yellow balls.   As detailed here, we won't see them until 11/8.

If I am to believe Opta, which I swore a few weeks ago that I would, the best match of the weekend is Man United hosting Brighton; well, it is the Saturday 12:30 feature match. The Red Devils, even at Old Trafford, are only marginal favorites here.  

I want to believe Opta as they have Newcastle at 61% for the win and 21% for a draw hosting Fulham at 10 am Saturday on USA.  These are two sides that have somewhat disappointed so far this year.  Your other option at 10 am is Chelsea - Sunderland (that's 7th place Sunderland to you) on Peacock.  There is no 7:30 match (oh darn) but there is a special 3 pm fixture between Brentford and Liverpool on USA.  

Sunday is a bit crowded thanks to Thursday matches in Europa Cup and Conference League.  There are four choices at 10 (clocks back in England, remember).  Easy pick for us is Aston Villa hosting Man City on USA; this is an in-form City side right now but until their stumble against the Go Ahead Eagles, so were Aston Villa.  Other options (all on Peacock) are a London derby featuring Arsenal - Crystal Palace, Bournemouth hosting Nottingham Forestat and a relegation special between Wolves and Burnley.  The 12:30 match on NBC is Everton - Spurs; Opta is really testing me this week as I try to figure out how Everton are at 41% and Spurs just 32% (27% chance of draw).  Just reporting the numbers folks.

Almost forgot, you can get an early start to the weekend with a relegation-relevant contest between Leeds and West Ham Friday at 3 pm on USA.

This week's midweek stuff is Carabao Cup round of 16 on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Here are the fixtures:

Most intriguing match is defending champion Newcastle (I love saying that) versus Spurs.  Arsenal -Brighton looks like a tough fixture too.  Note the appearance of Wrexham on Tuesday.  The Championship season isn't going great for them but they did get this far in the Carabao Cup.

Sunday the Union start what we hope is a lengthy run in the MLS playoffs with a home match against Chicago at 5:30; we will be at Subaru Park for this one. The format is explained here.  We're not a big fan of soccer playoffs anyway and the first round seems goofy to us.  It's a best of three with the higher seed getting two home matches.  There are no ties; if level at full time, they go straight to PKs.  The argument is that with two home matches, the higher seed has a better chance of advancing than if they did a home and away aggregate setup.  That is probably true but soccer playoffs are such a crapshoot, how much help is it really?  I am mildly comforted that Opta has the Union at 55% for the win, though they do have the chance of a shootout at 23%.

I think you can take next Thursday and Friday off.

Signs of Life for USMNT

Light viewing but did see both USMNT friendlies and a handful of UEFA WC qualifiers.

Two Wrights

Recognizing that friendlies can be highly misleading based on the opponent and how strong a team that opponent fields, the consensus is that the performances against Ecuador and Australia were a step forward for the team.  Though they only earned a 1-1 draw against Ecuador, I thought the US looked better here than in the 2-1 win over Australia.  The passing and overall play was more connected than I remember from the Gold Cup performances.  Folarin Balogun certainly cemented his position on the roster with a goal and generally dangerous attacking play.  

Haji Wright had a brace vs Australia
(Jamie Schwaberow/ISI Photos/USSF via Getty Images)

The opening minutes versus Australia were chaotic and disappointing after the performance against Ecuador.  The good news is that they rallied behind two goals from Haji Wright.  Check out the pass from Cristian Roldan that send Wright through for the first goal, this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Both Wright and Roldan saw their stock rise based on their play versus Australia.  The Aussie match was surprisingly chippy and saw Christian Pulisic leave with some type of hamstring injury.  The extent as of publication was unknown.

So we see it as progress for the team and the first hopeful signs in awhile that the team might not totally flame out in the 2026 World Cup.  A low bar I grant but it's what we got right now.

Check out this NYT's  summary of the potential make-up of the US World Cup roster, including the opinions of CHYSC alum Henry Bushnell.

We Knew Them When

No current Union players were in action in the friendlies but we did see some familiar faces.  Keeper Matt Freese featured in goal for both matches. His player ratings were in the high 6's; decent enough and the position is probably his for the time being.  Mark McKenzie got a cameo versus Ecuador and started in the Australia match; he looked okay out there.  Brendan Aaronson came on in the second half versus Australia; his ratings were mid 6's but he looked better than that to me, creating some decent scoring chances.  Freese is maybe a lock to make the WC squad, McKenzie and Aaronson may be in the mix but with nothing assured for either of them.

Magpies in Action

Woltemade (#11) watches his shoulder goal go in

It was a good international window for Woltemade and Gordon but not so much for Elanga.  The
German got a header (actually it was off his shoulder) in the 1-0 win over Northern Ireland.  Gordon got England off and running with the opening goal in the Three Lions 5-0 romp over Latvia.

Anthony Elanga did not feature in Sweden's 0-2 loss to Switzerland and only came on in the second half in the 0-1 loss to Kosovo.  His frustration boiled over in the tunnel as he was overheard to say:

"The f****** system has to go."

Not sure if he meant he was questioning the choice of an out-of-form Alexander Isak in both matches or the two striker system employed by Jon Dahl Tomasson.  He tried to be a bit more measured talking directly to the press.  In a related story, Tomasson was sacked after the Kosovo loss, with Sweden's chances of making the 2026 WC hanging by a thread.

Busy Again

Hope you enjoyed the down time because the schedule is crowded again.

The EPL has some tasty stuff and one of the better fixtures features Newcastle away to Brighton (10 am Saturday on USA).  Opta sees this as highly competitive and I agree; the two sides are 11/12 in the table with identical 2/3/2 records and 9 points.  I can easily see a draw here and would not be disappointed.

Sunday has two good fixtures with Spurs - Aston Villa at 9 and Liverpool - Man United at 11:30; both are on USA.  The former looks exactly like Brighton - Newcastle; Opta has it as very competitive.  Opta sees the latter as a blowout for Liverpool but recall the Reds are on a three match losing streak.

Like London derbies?  We have two, with Fulham hosting Arsenal (the feature 12:30 on NBC) and West Ham versus Brentford at 3 pm on Monday (USA).  Like relegation battle previews?  Based on preseason predictions, there are two relegation specials, though Sunderland might beg to differ.  Sunderland, currently in 9th but tagged to be in a relegation battle, host winless Wolves at 10 on Saturday (Peacock) while Burnley and Leeds square off at the same time, also on Peacock.

Rounding out the match week are Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea for the early birds (7:30 Saturday on USA), Crystal Palace - Bournemouth (Saturday at 10 on Peacock - this is probably a good watch) and Man City hosting Everton, also at 10 am on Peacock.

Saturday is the final match day of the MLS season, also known as "Decision Day."  For the Union the only two decisions are:

- who to play and who to rest in advance of the playoffs

- where to display the Supporters Shield

Okay, kind of cocky and snotty on my part but I don't want to undersell this trophy.  Especially after looking at team payrolls, which show the Union as the third lowest in MLS, ahead of only CF Montreal and Real Salt Lake.  Anyway, the U end the season at Charlotte, then await their playoff opponent.

There's also a full Champions League schedule on Tuesday and Wednesday followed by Europa Cup and Conference League action on Thursday.  For BFS staff this means Newcastle hosting Benfica on Tuesday at 3 pm and Aston Villa traveling to face the Go Ahead Eagles.  Though that last team sounds like a U-12 travel squad, they are actually in the first tier of Dutch football.  

It's going to be crowded like this for several weeks.

Hardware!

The Union collected their second MLS trophy with a 1-0 win over NYCFC and a good weekend for BFS sides.

Doop!

NYCFC came to town on Saturday, presenting the Union with a chance to clinch the Eastern Conference and the Supporters Shield (best record in MLS).  The evening got off to an auspicious start as our usual parking lot was filled 45 minutes before kickoff: and we were lucky the back up lot could fit us in but only because we were in a small car.  Once inside we decided to go for the traditional sausage sandwich only to be shocked to see that the sausages had shrunk to the size of hot dogs, making the bun to meat ratio disturbingly low.

Fortunately, things improved from there.  The Union were definitely the more adventurous side, generating several dangerous looking chances in front of the NYCFC goal.  We were lucky that the visitors fortuitously skyed a shot over a virtually wide open net early.  Finally, one of the Union plays paid off as a Mikael Uhre shot on goal deflected off a defender and found the back of the net.  Uhre's shot was going to be on target so he still got credit for the goal, which you can see here.

Alas, that was to be the only goal, which meant 50+ minutes of "squeaky bum" time as the Union defended their slim lead.  Both sides saw goals chalked off for offside.  NYCFC had another golden opportunity late but failed to capitalize.  This one was tight right up to the final whistle.  The U did have the better of shots and shots on target but, likely reflecting those two great chances, NYCFC had the higher xG at 1.3-1.1.

And this time they had the real Shield

The final whistle triggered some serious celebrating, with the players taking a victory lap amidst fireworks, some victory speeches and the lifting of the real Supporters Shield (not the fake one they had in 2020).  In true Philly fashion, owner Jay Sugarman got more than just a smattering of boos from the stands based on his tight wallet approach to running the team.  Fans were more magnanimous in recognizing the work of Sporting Director Ernst Tanner and Manager Bradley Carnell.  

This is a big deal and I'll be the first to jump on those who might say all that matters is the playoffs.  That's not how soccer works in almost any other country and it's gratifying to see that even in playoff crazy USA, the MLS awards a trophy for the best record. 

Good Enough

Newcastle certainly controlled things at home versus Nottingham Forest but took their time securing the three points.  After a scoreless first half, Bruno Guimaraes finally got the Magpies on the board with a sweet curling shot from just outside the box; we make his goal in the 58th minute this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Though Forest never really threatened (.3 xG), neither could Newcastle put the game to bed.  Finally, former Magpie Elliot Anderson fouled Guimaraes in the box and Voldemort Woltemade cheekily dispatched the PK.  Case closed.  

He who must not be named doubled Newcastle's lead with this PK
Photo: Getty Images

Certainly the defense is well-organized at this point but the offense is still struggling to convert the chances, as witnessed by the xG of 3.45 yet only two goals on the scoreboard.  I'm taking comfort that this is a revamped attack so we might not see great results right away.

Newcastle home fans and Forest traveling supporters were both incorrect in chanting "you're getting sacked in the morning" at Ange Postecoglu in the closing minutes of the match.  As of publication, he is still the manager and will likely still be in charge for next week's match versus Chelsea.  But maybe not after that.

And Then There Were None

Crystal Palace tasted defeat for the first time this season at the hands of Everton courtesy of a stoppage time goal by Jack Grealish.  Based on the highlight reel, that 2-1 contest was probably the best choice of the four Sunday 9 am matches.  Aston Villa did get all three points at home versus Burnley as expected; the 2-1 final suggests that it might not have been as convincing as they would like.

Liverpool lost for the third time in eight days, falling to Chelsea 2-1 in a feature match that lived up to its billing.  Dennis and I agree that Garnacho is just as annoying in Chelsea blue as he was in Man United red.  

Spurs came away with a 2-1 win at Leeds but my eyes and the stats suggest that this was a draw at best.  Leeds were better at shots (16/9), shots on target (4/3) and xG (1.68/.53).  Despite that, the win is still worth three points and Spurs are second in the table.  They sit one point behind Arsenal, who were 2-0 winners over West Ham.  Man City, despite being singularly unimpressive in a 1-0 win over Brentford, did keep pace with the top five, as did Bournemouth, who scored three goals after the 77th minute to beat Fulham 3-1.

Throwing in the Towel

Excuse me sir, you are not allowed to use that towel
Getty Images

I had meant to comment on this issue last week but ran out of time.  In the Newcastle - Arsenal match, the Gunners Riccardo Calafiori was stopped by referee Jarred Gillett from using a towel to dry the ball prior to a throw-in.  At the time, I thought it was because Calafiori had "stolen" it from Newcastle keeper Nick Pope.  Turns out that wasn't it.  As discussed here, in the Premier League, players may use towels to dry the ball only if both teams agree to it prior to the match.  In the lower tiers, towels are banned completely.  The main reason cited is to eliminate drying as a means of wasting time but there was also some concern that the home teams likely had better access to towels than the away side.

International Break

Even the Chestnut Hill Youth Sports Club is observing the break so no games to watch or to referee.  Well, except for UEFA World Cup qualifers and some friendlies.  I believe the CHYSC hiatus is driven by the national holiday and historical experience that too many players are out of town.

The USMNT does have a friendly Friday night at 8:30 versus Ecuador and another on Tuesday at 9 pm versus Australia; both are on TNT.  Not always a big viewer of friendlies but feeling like it's time to check in on the US personnel.

Just Like Old Times

Hmm, Arsenal rains on Newcastle's parade, spoiling a weekend filled with mostly favorable results.  The Union win big but lose big.

Hard to Complain

When you lose on a late goal sometimes perspective gets lost because you were so close. Yes, we did feel like a draw against Arsenal was within our grasp until Gabriel's 96 minute winner.  But a clear-eyed look at the whole match suggests that would have been stealing a point. The stats certainly suggest a 2-1 Arsenal win was the right outcome.  Possession was 63/37, shots 20/8, shots on target 7/3 and most importantly xG was 2.04/.61.  Certainly it felt like the Magpies were hanging on for dear life most of the second half and especially in the closing minutes.  

VAR has a busy day here.  A PK call against Pope was overturned.  Real time it looked like a foul but after looking at the replay I'd argue that it wasn't.  Was it a clear and obvious error or a case of re-refereeing?  ESPN argues here that it wasn't the latter because Gillet hadn't seen the touch on the ball by Pope.  There was a check on Voldemart's goal for a "push" against Gabriel, which was so soft that the commentator suggested the Arsenal player should be embarrassed.  Then, late in the match, the ball clearly strikes Gabriel's upraised arm in the box.  He was sliding at the time but the arm was still pretty high.  It deflected off his leg before hitting his arm though which was probably enough to save him.  That play is also discussed in the ESPN article.

Oh, and to add to the good news, Livramento suffered a knee injury and will miss six to eight weeks.

Sigh, just like the bad old days.

New-no Manager Bounce?

Sort of.  Nuno Espirito Santo did not spend much time unemployed as he was snapped up by West Ham upon the sacking of Graham Potter.  The Hammers did manage a 1-1 draw with Everton in his first match in charge.  

You Think You Had A Bad Day?

Maxime Esteve, on his knees as you would be too if 
you gave up two own goals in one match

Burnley had a tall enough task facing Man City at the Etihad.  Maxime Esteve made it a little harder when he gave up an own goal in the 12th minute.  The Clarets soldiered on and were surprisingly level at 1-1 until Nunes put City ahead in the 61st minute.  Then Esteve finished the task with his second own goal of the day.  Haaland added two meaningless goals late to make the final 5-1.  Esteve is the 6th player in EPL history to get a brace of own goals in a game, joining the likes of Craig Dawson and Jamie Carragher.

Don't Disrespect Opta

Last week I questioned how Opta could have Brentford as the favorite against Man United.  My bad.  The Bees were 3-1 winners thanks to a brace from Thiago with an insurance goal from Jensen.  I will not question their predictions again.

Better Late

Aside from Gabriel's killer goal at Newcastle, four other squads snatched points on late goals and by late I mean in stoppage time.

- Eddie Nketiah's 93rd minute tally gave Crystal Palace a surprise 2-1 win over Liverpool.  Would have been a fun day to be at Selhurst Park.  Palace are now the only undefeated side in the EPL.  Nketiah's goal can be seen here.

- Joao Palhinha helped Spurs grab a 1-1 draw against Wolves with his 94th minute strike.  Wolves are no longer pointless. The goal can be seen here.

- Eli Kroupi did basically the same thing for Bournemouth at Leeds, rescuing a 2-2 draw for the Cherries

- Brighton actually got two stoppage time goals (Maxim DeCuyper and Danny Welbeck) to take the measure of Chelsea 3-1.  The Blues played the last 40+ minutes a man down thanks to Chalobah's straight red.

Champions League

Bodo Fet? Bodo Fet? Where?

The key thing I remember is that Bodo Glimt has a player named Fet.  I'll have to explain that later to Michael B, who has never seen any of the Star Wars movies.

A true mixed bag of results for Matchday 2 for the EPL.  Newcastle did well with a 4-0 win over Union Saint-Gilloise and Arsenal were 2-0 over Olympiakos.  Chelsea did squeak out a 1-0 win over Benfica.   Spurs were drawn 2-2 by Bodo Glimt on artificial turf above the Arctic Circle and were in some ways lucky to come away with that.  Man City could do no better than 2-2 against Monaco and Liverpool lost to Galatasaray. 

A Quinn-tessential Pyrrhic Victory

We won't be seeing the Mighty Quinn for a bit

The Union's easy and emphatic 6-0 win over DC United comes at great cost.  Quinn Sullivan suffered an ACL injury and will miss the rest of the season (and maybe the start of next?).  On the positive side, the U wasted no time in taking it to DC and were up 3-0 by halftime and did not take the pedal off the gas.  Goal scorers included Damiani, Vassilev (2!), Iloski and Uhre.

The Union's Eastern Conference position had been bolstered by Miami's 1-1 draw earlier in the day and Cincinnati's draw on Sunday.  Things got even better as Miami lost to Chicago on Tuesday.  Their Supporters Shield chances were also buoyed by a Vancouver draw and San Diego loss.  Another three points gets them both the conference title and the Supporters Shield.

Three Day Weekend

For some reason (midweek Champions League and Europa Cup?), Sunday is the crowded match day.  Things kick off Friday with a 3 pm match on USA featuring Bournmouth vs .Fulham.  Saturday dawns bright and early with Leeds hosting Spurs at 7:30 on USA.  Only two choices at 10, neither all that enticing; you can do Arsenal - West Ham on Peacock or Man United - Sunderland on USA.  Or go referee some games.

The feature match is worthy of the label as we have Chelsea hosting Liverpool at 12:30 on NBC.  Opta has the Reds as slight favorites over the Blues, even at Stamford Bridge.

The Sunday 9 am slot is packed and of course has Newcastle and Aston Villa playing at the same time.  Newcastle will host Nottingham Forest (that's the USA game) while Aston Villa are home to Burnley.  Both sides will be thinking three points, especially at home.  Your other choices are Everton - Crystal Palace, which should be a decent watch, or Wolves vs Brighton.  There's also the 11:30 match with Brentford - Man City.

Big time doings at Subaru Park as the Union host NYCFC with a chance to clinch everything with a win.  Opta likes their chances, with the Union at 51% to win, 25% to draw.  The problem is that a draw means we need some help on the out-of-town scoreboard.

Next week is the fall international break,  which means a pile of UEFA World Cup Qualifiers running from Thursday to Tuesday.

Not All Draws Are Created Equal

 I did get to see three of the five draws this weekend.  And a few of the mid-week matches.

A Good Draw

There were no illusions about how difficult Bournemouth would be at home.  Even Opta saw the Cherries as a slight favorite.  So, the 0-0 draw isn't a bad thing.  Especially since Howe went with a heavily rotated line up.  He's not taking flak for that but he is getting some pushback for a conservative game plan that included a back three.  The argument is that regardless of their good start, this is still Bournemouth and a club like Newcastle should aggressively be seeking the win.  I was fine with it as I think people are underestimating Bournemouth and the wrong approach could have landed the Magpies with a 1-3 or worse defeat.

Sometimes When You Tie, You Actually Lose

That would be Aston Villa.  The good news is that did manage to score against Sunderland.  But that's about all the good news there is.  This was a 10-man Sunderland and the one goal was all Villa could manage.  Worse, Sunderland got a late goal and came away with a 1-1 draw.  Yikes, Villa would have been thinking three points even full strength so against the shorthanded side, this is a terrible result.  Emery, perhaps unfairly, has moved into third or fourth place in the sack race.  

Random Observations Based on Little Observation

- Crystal Palace are still undefeated with two wins and three draws

- Man United got a big win over Chelsea in a monsoon, helped by an early red card to keeper Sanchez

- Spurs displayed some grit as they rallied from 0-2 to get a draw with Brighton (actually saw that one)

- Arsenal snatched a draw from the jaws of defeat in a lively 1-1 draw with Man City (saw that one too)

- Wolves are still pointless through five matches after a 1-3 loss at home to Leeds

As Defending Champions, Newcastle Are Obligated to Carabao the EFL Cup

Osula netted two vs Bradford City
Getty Images

The Magpies entered the Carabao Cup this week with a 4-1 thumping of League One Bradford City at St. James' Park. Though the visitors put up a good fight, Newcastle were never really threatened here after getting two quick goals.  Good to see some scoring regardless of the opponent, especially from Osula.

Ten Premier League sides are still in the hunt as we are down to the last 16.  Newcastle's opponent in the fourth round will be Spurs

Europa Cup Action

G-O-A-L for McGinn 
Reuters/Andrew Boyers

Against Bologna, Aston Villa did this thing where one of their players kicked the ball past the goal keeper and it went into the net. Dennis wasn't sure what that is called.  It's called a goal. They also ended the match with more goals than the other team and Dennis asked what is that called.  That is a win.  But even in victory this team remains a puzzle.  They had many more chances and Watkins missed a PK. In short, this should have been an easy win but instead was a nailbiter. 

You Say You Want the Revolution? (apologies to The Beatles)

With the Union struggling of late, 11th place New England rolled into town at the perfect time. Though they struggled to take advantage of the situation, Damiani's 70th minute goal was just enough to come away with a 1-0 win. Set up by a great pass from Westfield, we make it this week's  YouTubeableMoment.  I only saw the highlights but the stats - especially xG of 1.9-.8 - do suggest that the U were better than 1-0.

The win keeps the Union on top of the East and first in the Supporters Shield standings.  However, with three to go, they haven't even locked up a top four finish yet.  

No Time To Rest

We have another busy week on tap.  

Well this has to be a typo.  For the 7:30 am Saturday match (USA), Opta has Brentford as a solid favorite over Man United at 48%-26% (26% draw).  Sure it's home match for the Bees but really?

Four choices at 10 am.  TV wants you to watch Man City host Burnley but that looks like a massacre.  I'd be inclined to go with...oh never mind, there's no good option as you can pick from Chelsea - Brighton, Crystal Palace - Liverpool or Leeds - Bournemouth.  Then we move to the "feature" 12:30 match with Nottingham Forest v Sunderland on USA (lemme guess, Ryder Cup gets the NBC slot?).  And there's the no longer special but regular 3 pm Peacock match between Spurs and Wolves.

It's an all BFS Sunday with Aston Villa hosting Fulham and Newcastle against Arsenal at St. James' Park at 9 and 11:30 on USA.  This is usually an unhappy match up for the Magpies, no matter where they play.  The good news is that things have been more even in recent times than, say, the 2012-2021 era where Newcastle lost 17 of 18.  Still, we are solid underdogs here.  Dennis may have a better time with Fulham.

There is a Monday match too, with Everton facing off against West Ham at 3 pm on USA.

Tuesday and Wednesday are match day 2 of Champions League  league play.  Six EPL sides are in action, including Newcastle at Union Saint-Gilloise; I will confess to not knowing that club but I see they are top of the Belgian Pro League ahead of more well-known clubs like Anderlecht and Club Brugge.

The Union need to make hay while the sun shines as they face DC United away at 7:30 on Saturday.  No disrespect intended but this is the easiest match of the Union's closing contests.  With so many teams on their heels, it is basically a must-win game.

Busy times

So Much To Do

Yikes, where'd the time go?  Late Thursday night and the deadline approaches and I'm in Virginia playing in a member-guest golf tournament with BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W, trying to keep up the track and field world championships, catching Champions League matches where I can and handling referee assignment duties.  Plus, my dog ate my homework.  Will get to what I can.

Immediate Dividends

That was fast.  In his first start for Newcastle, Voldemort Wortleman Woltemade delivered the winning goal in the Magpies narrow 1-0 win over Wolves. We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment. The announcers had been saying that despite his 6'5" frame, Woltemade did not score a lot of headers.  So of course, he promptly scored a header goal. 

 Wolves threatened in the opening minutes and I thought they had some good chances but the xG is only .5 so maybe they looked scarier than they were.   After that rough start, the defense was pretty good.  This was not a particularly appetizing game to watch but Newcastle did get all three points so it was good enough for the moment.  On the other hand, this is the last place side in the league so 1-0 win at home isn't anything to brag about.

Don't They Know These Games Count?

Emery: Am I predictiable?
(Bradley Collyer/PA) (PA Wire)

Apparently no one in Birmingham set an alarm to let Aston Villa know that the EPL season has started.  They have two draws, two losses and no goals in EPL play.  Their latest let down was 0-0 draw with Everton.  I only saw the highlights that made it look like the Toffees were the better side.  The stats back up that impression with shots at 20/7, shots on target 2/1 and xG at 2.08/.54, all favor of Everton.  Dennis noted that by Sunday, Villa were the only side in the top seven tiers of English football without a goal.

Why the poor start?  They did lose a few players when their loans expired (Rashford, Asensio, and Disasi), Jacob Ramsey on transfer to Newcastle and Leon Bailey out on loan to AS Roma but those don't seem like decimating losses.   They have added Harvey Elliott and Jadon Sancho.  I am reading articles that suggest that the team has become too predictable.  They have been hindered by the PSR which have limited their ability to spend.  

Though they did score in their Carabao Cup match with Brentford, Villa lost on PKs.  Maybe for the best.

Burnley Have A Type?

And it's not a good one.  For the second straight matchweek, the Clarets played one of the big boys tough for 90 minutes only to concede a PK in second half stoppage time.  This time it was Liverpool.  Scott Parker's game plan (Parker the bus?) worked pretty much to perfection and despite allowing the Reds 27 shots, only four were on target and they only managed one big chance.

Back in the studio, Tim Howard pointed out a big risk in the bunkering strategy - you can't make even one mistake if you don't generate any shots on target and post an xG of .13.  There was absolutely no controversy in the PK call - stone cold handling in the box by Hannibal Mejbri.

What's A Matter U?

We expected a tough match for the Union in Vancouver.  The task was made even more daunting by Carnell's decision to rotate the line up in advance of Tuesday's US Open Cup match at Nashville.  The U were down 3-0 within 29 minutes and it basically never got better as the Whitecaps rolled to a 7-0 win.  Bedoya sort of worked at right back in a game earlier this season but not tonight.  That said, this looked like a team fail.  Even the stats say 7-0 was about right.  Vancouver had 20 shots, 12 on target and an xG of 5.6.

Tuesday was only marginally better as they fell 1-3 to Nashville in the US Open Cup semi-final.  Granted it was no blowout but they still looked pretty weak.  And chippy.  Damiani dodged a red card early on for a straight leg challenge.  He avoided a red card a second time when, while already on a yellow, he attempted to deny a goal with his arm.  Since he failed to stop the goal, it wasn't DOGSO but had the referee noticed that he did touch the ball, it would still have been yellow.  Since that was not reviewable by VAR, he managed to stick around.

Champions League

There were matchday one games. I saw Spurs underwhelm against Villareal but still come away with a 1-0 win.  I saw Newcastle play Barcelona tough for the first half but fail to convert their chances.  This was a problem as Marcus Rashford put in two quality goals in the second half.  A late tally by Anthony Gordon made the score a more respectable 1-2 but it was still a loss.

Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City all came away with first day wins while Chelsea joined Newcastle in losing their opener.

He Might Walk Alone

Patel leaves no doubt which football team he supports
Photo:Reuters

FBI Director Kash Patel wore a Liverpool tie to his Congressional Hearing last week.  Reaction is "mixed." 

Crowded Again

EPL on Saturday and Sunday, Europa Cup on Wednesday and Thursday.  Best match of the weekend looks to be Arsenal - Man City at 11:30 on Sunday on Peacock.  This is an emerging trend - put the best game of the week in this time slot and put it on Peacock.

Newcastle have Bournemouth at 9 am Sunday on USA and Villa are in the same time slot against Sunderland but on Peacock.  Slightly surprised to see Bournemouth as a slight favorite against the Magpies.  For Aston Villa, surely they not only get on the scoreboard but defeat the Black Cats and get their first win of the season.

The Saturday feature match at 12:30 has Man United hosting Chelsea, which sounds tempting but Opta has the Blues as a big favorite even on the road.  Also, this is on USA, not NBC, who has chosen to go with college football (Maryland vs Wisconsin).

There's the Merseyside Derby at 7:30 Saturday on USA.  Four matches at 10.  The USA contest is West Ham - Crystal Palace.  I'd be more interested in Brighton - Spurs on Peacock; not sure why Spurs are heavy underdogs here (27% vs 47% with 26% chance of a draw).  You could also do Burnley - Nottingham Forest or Wolves - Leeds; the latter has relelgation battle written all over it.  There's also a "special" 3 pm match on Saturday with Fulham facing Brentford; if they keep doing this, it won't be a special Saturday afternoon match anymore.

There's a full matchday one schedule for Europa Cup on Wednesday and Thursday.  We hope to check out Aston Villa vs Bologna at 3 pm on Thursday.

The Union look to protect their lead in the conference and the Supporters Shield race as they face New England at Subaru Park on Saturday at 2:30.  The Revolution are languishing in 11th place so this would be the time and place to get things right.

I'm still in Virginia through Sunday so not sure how much I'll get to see.