A Little Bit of Everything

I will blame any inaccuracies or incompleteness on a busy schedule and poor memory.

On To Wembley

Reports of my demise were exaggerated

The FA Cup quarterfinals yielded four matches of varying degrees of interest.  Crystal Palace were surprisingly easy 3-0 winners over Fulham.  Nottingham Forest and Brighton did little to separate themselves over 120 minutes so that one went to PKs.  Forest prevailed 4-3 and their magic season continues.  Aston Villa dominated Preston but took their sweet time in getting it to show on the scoreboard; three second half goals - two from reclamation project Marcus Rashford - put that one to bed.  Bournemouth had an early lead versus Man City but there would be no cherry on top of this Sunday as the Citizens grabbed two second half goals for the win.

The semis at Wembley on April 26th will see Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace and Man City vs Nottingham Forest.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve: Check out the picture of the last time Aston Villa won the FA Cup (1957)

Dennis:  Here's one from the last time Newcastle won it

Steve: Hey wait, it's only been two years longer for the Magpies. They won it in 1955

Dennis: When were you born?

Steve: 1956

Dennis: If it was before you were born, by definition, it was back in the Stone Age

No Hangover

Isak gets his 20th league goal

Newcastle faced a tricky fixture against Brentford in their return to EPL action after the Caraboa Cup
win.  The good news it that they came out with plenty of confidence and did most of the attacking in the first half.  Looked like it would be for naught until Murphy put a great cross right onto Isak's foot that the Swede converted into a 1-0 lead right before halftime.  Some sloppy work by Pope led to a second half PK that was smartly converted by Mbuemo.  Brentford looked the better side for a time after that, hitting the post and generally having the better of play.  Tonali rescued the Magpies with this most unlikely of goals.  It was not a deflection but there is ongoing debate as to whether it was a cross or a shot.  I think (and Dennis agrees) it was a shot.  Newcastle survived a possible stoppage time foul in the box by Bruno G to hang on to the 2-1 win.  

Not the best of performances, especially the finishing, but good enough.  

The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight

Man United totally dominated Nottingham Forest and were rewarded with an 0-1 loss.  Possession was 68/32, shots were 23/8 and shots on target were 6/2.  The six shots on target seems low as I remember feeling like United blew chance after chance.  The xG - 1.74 to .57 - matches up with that sense.  The Red Devils simply did not take advantage of their opportunities.  Forest meanwhile benefited from an incredible solo effort by Anthony Elanga, an easy choice for this weeks YouTubeableMoment.  He only ran about 85 yards, eluded three defenders and calmly slotted the ball past Onana at the end of his lung-busting run.  Once again, Nottingham Forest have refused to turn into a pumpkin.  Note that they managed this win without top scorer Chris Wood and attacking midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White.

Back Into the Mix

Not that they were really out of it but Aston Villa definitely established themselves as a contender for Champions League with a 3-0 win over Brighton.  I didn't see the game and Dennis didn't see all of it either.  The scoresheet says 3-0 but the stats make it sound like a draw.  

Leaving aside a trip to Southampton, the Villans now start a run of six-point fixtures against many of the other contestants for European slots, including Nottingham Forest, Newcastle (Fillebrown Derby!), Fulham and Bournemouth.  The tricky part will be managing that around this year's Champions League action (PSG is next) and FA Cup semis.  

Other Random Thoughts

The top six sides all got wins so there was no movement there.  Leicester managed a .08 xG in their 0-2 loss to Man City.  Hardly a statement win for City but they are now missing Haaland for about seven weeks.  Ipswich got a win over Bournemouth and Southampton took a point from Crystal Palace but Wolves got a 1-0 win over West Ham so the relegation situation didn't really change.  

A Cameo From the Special One

Jose Mourinho, now managing in the Turkish league, still finds a way to make news.  As seen here, he grabbed the nose of rival manager Okan Buruk after losing in the Turkish Cup quarter-final.  A cheeky moment no doubt but almost as good is how Buruk goes down writhing in pain.  Buruk claims it did leave a slight scratch.  Probably should get a rabies shot.

Bad News, Good News

Oh crap...
Photo: Rebecca Blackwell - AP

So the Union did not come home from Miami with any points.  That's the bad news.  The good news is that if you watched the game (Dennis did but I didn't as I was at the Wells Fargo Center eating a Federal Donuts chicken sandwich with fries) and look at the stats, you conclude that the Union definitely held their own here, despite the 2-1 scoreline.  Possession was 54/46 favor Miami but shots were 20/6 and shots on target were 6/3, both favor the Union.  Most tellingly, xG was 2.5-1.9 in their favor as well.  The killer was clearly Messi scoring a mere two minutes after entering the match to double the lead.  Gazdag got one back they couldn't find an equalizer.  

Their first serious test and you have to say they passed even if they didn't get any points.  If they can go toe-to-toe with Miami down there, they should be competitive.

Back on DST

England caught up to us so the times are back to normal.  Which means I may not be there for the 7:30 kick-off between Everton and Arsenal.  There's a clear choice in my mind for the 10 am matches and that would be Ipswich hosting Wolves.  This is realistically the last chance for the Tractor Boys to make a move to avoid relegation.  They'll start the day nine points short of the 17th place Wolves; even with a win they will still sit six back.  But a loss or a draw means they are 12 or 9 back with seven to play.  Opta sees that one as dead even (36/36/28).  Crystal Palace - Brighton could be an excellent match too since they don't like each other very much. West Ham versus Bournmouth is your third choice.

The feature 12:30 match (on USA, not NBC as they will be covering the Augusta Women's National Amateur golf tournament) looks good as Aston Villa will host Nottingham Forest.  Actually, Villa are solid favorites here, likely due to the home field advantage and the possibility that Chris Wood and Morgan Gibbs-White will still be out with injuries.  But as we've noted, no one has really woken Forest from their dream yet.  

Three Sunday 9 am fixtures but nothing that really stands out - Brentford v Chelsea, Fulham v Liverpool and Spurs v Southampton.  There is the Manchester Derby at 11:30; given how both teams have largely disappointed this season, it could still be interesting.

Newcastle travel to Leicester for a Monday 3pm clash.  Given the Foxes recent form, anything less than three points here is a massive blow to the Magpies Champions League hopes.

I'll be at Subaru Park for the Union match vs Orlando Saturday night at 7:30.  They've done a bit better since losing to the U 2-4 on opening day.  We'll call this a useful test.

And don't forget the big mid-week of European football.  Arsenal host Real Madrid on Tuesday and Aston Villa travel to Paris to face PSG on Wednesday in the first legs of their Champions League quarter-final ties.  Thursday is crowded with Man United facing Lyon away and Spurs hosing Eintracht Frankfurt in their Europa League quarter-final matches, both at 3pm.  At least the Chelsea - Legia Warsazawa Europa Conference League quarter-final is at 12:45 if you're inclined to double dip.  

Eesh, bad week to be traveling so I envision I'll be taking in some by replay on my phone after hours.

Limited Duty

After so many weeks crammed with action, that was like a vacation.  Took in a couple of UEFA World Cup qualifiers and the Union match. It's sheer coincidence that in a weeked with limited viewing, I moved a lot of junk out of the basement to various recycling outlets, took care of some items related to my car and slept in late both Saturday and Sunday.  

Three Points Is Three Points

Glesnes led a resolute defense
Photo: Ron Soliman

The Union slipped by St. Louis 1-0 in a chippy and tense contest at windswept Subaru Park on Saturday night.  The glass half full aspects include things like they were missing five key players, Glesnes had a solid performance with several key interceptions, they generally kept St. Louis away from the goal.  In fact, their expected goals was only slightly better than Graham and Steve (St. Louis was .52, Graham and Steve 0.00).  The U did not have the majority possession but much of St. Louis possession was non-threatening.  Ian Glavinovich's header goal, this week's YouTubeableMoment, was pretty sweet too. It was the first goal St. Louis had allowed this season.

The glass half empty group notes that the result was in doubt until the final whistle; one well-timed ball over the top was all St. Louis needed to get a draw.  Andrew Rick had a clean sheet as Blake's replacement but also made a few questionable choices, getting himself too far out of goal.  One time he made a brilliant but desperate save, and on another the ball was barely over the cross bar.  Particularly annoying was that the U simply could not put the match to bed despite playing up man from 66 minutes on.

Regardless of how it looked, the result still shows up on the standings as three points.

You're Going To Need A Bigger Window

I only saw the score (2-1 favor Canada) but apparently the "wake up call" of the 0-1 loss to Panama went unanswered.  Writing for Yahoo Sports, Chestnut Hill's own Henry Bushnell documents here how poor the performance was.  His account includes one of my favorite words that describes boring soccer - "snoozefest."

Attention now turns to the Concacaf Gold Cup in June and July.  The good news is that this will be a longer window for Poch to work with the team.  The bad news is that they really need it.

We Return to EPL Action...

But first, there are the FA Cup quarter finals on Saturday and Sunday.  Then we get our EPL match week spread over Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  As Michael B as unilaterally decided, this is the beginning of the Here's the FA Cup schedule:

Fulham - Crystal Palace at Craven Cottage  Saturday at 8:15 am

Brighton - Nottingham Forest at American Express Stadium Saturday at 1:15 pm

Preston - Aston Villa at Deepdale Sunday at 8:30 am

Bournemouth - Manchester City at Vitality Stadium Sunday at 11:30 am

Hmm, it's a who's who of the EPL mid-table (3,5,7,8,9,10,12).  Wait, one of these is not like the others.  Preston currently sit 14th in the Championship table.  The matches are only available on ESPN+.

Michael B and I have unilaterally decided that the EPL run-in officially starts after the spring international break.  Others seem to agree, as evidenced by this analysis at soccerstats.com.  Check out the visual table that graphically highlights where the gaps and tight races are in the standings:

The bad part about a full midweek EPL schedule is that you're pretty much limited to one match each day.  Tuesday I probably go with Nottingham Forest hosting Man United to keep following maybe the most interesting story of the year.  I'll let you decide whether that's the surprising performance of Forest or the surprising performance of Man United.  Other choices are Arsenal - Fulham or Wolves - West Ham.  The latter might actually be a good contest.

Wednesday we are locked in with Newcastle vs Brentford at Saint James' Park.  The Magpies will be favored at home and really should handle the Bees but it's probably closer than we'd like.  Neutrals will likely be better off with Brighton - Aston Villa; the Seagulls have taken 13 of the last 15 points on offer but Villa are rarely outplayed regardless of the opponent.  Plus, a win for either significantly boosts their European credentials.  The other four choices don't look particularly appealing - Bournemouth - Ipswich, Man City - Leicester, Southampton - Crystal Palace and Liverpool - Everton.  Okay, that last one is a Merseyside Derby so you don't know for sure but I'm still going with Brighton - Villa as the recommendation.

Thursday's lone fixture is a London derby between Chelsea and Spurs at Stamford Bridge.  Who knows what to expect here, except maybe Chelsea's inconsistency has been less pronounced than Spurs' mediocrity.  

MLS has a tasty matchup with first place Union taking on Miami, Saturday night at 7:30.  This will be the first serious test for the Union, especially on the road.  Alas, it's on MLS Season Pass so unlikely to see any more than just the highlights.  

Looking at the April calendar, between EPL action and the European competitions (quarter finals for all three) I count eight "off days" for the month.  There's a game every day from 4/1-4/21 except for the three Fridays in that period (4th, 11th and 18th). There's actually four straight days late in the month with no action - 4/22 through 4/25 - and you can take the last day of month off.  

Works for me.

We Definitely Carabao It Now

Newcastle get their first major trophy in 70 years and results in the EPL were mostly helpful for the position in the table this year.  The Union were not so lucky.

Hardware!

If you saw Newcastle's 2-1 win over Liverpool in the Carabao Cup Final, you know it didn't feel that close.  Shots were 22-10 and shots on target were 7-3, both in favor of the Magpies.  Surprisingly, xG was only 2.06-1.20; watching the game I would have thought the Newcastle xG was much higher.  Liverpool did have the better of possession at 66-34 but it didn't feel all that threatening.  

Dan Burn scores the opener: You can't teach height.
Action Images via Reuters/Paul Childs 

Dan Burn gave Newcastle a deserved lead right at the end of the first half with a well-placed header. It's an easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment; the shaky quality of the video is offset by the fact that the audio comes from excited Newcastle broadcasters.  Shortly after seeing a goal ruled out - probably correctly for offside - Isak doubled the lead at 52 minutes with a shot from inside the box. Defensively the Magpies looked solid with Burn regularly clearing the box with headers and some timely back tracking by Joelinton.  

Of course, since this is Newcastle, nothing comes easy.  They missed numerous chances to extend the lead to three or four goals so when Liverpool scored in stoppage time, it was squeaky bum time.  They did the end of game management well, getting the ball to the corner and winning throw-ins and corners to keep the ball out of trouble.   

I fully realize this is the least prestigious of the domestic competitions.  On the other hand, they did beat,  among others, Chelsea, Arsenal (over two legs) and Liverpool to win the title so there's nothing cheap about it.  Also, I think it was important to show some progress in transforming the franchise under the new ownership. And, as Dennis noted based off the on-field celebration, the players definitely did Carabao it.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve (after Tonali was kicked in the groin): Wonder if they use magic spray in that situation?

Dennis: He's freezing his nuts off out there!

Good News in EPL

Since they didn't have a league match, Newcastle could have seen their position in table weakened.  Instead, the results were mostly helpful.  Man City could only manage a draw at home against Brighton so the Citizens are only one point up on us.  Kind of reinforces what we said about Brighton last week; they have been tough lately and are level with Newcastle on points.  Chelsea fell to Arsenal; though not a surprise, it was to Newcastle's benefit.  Fulham beat Spurs 2-0 and now the Cottagers are creeping up so that's something to watch.  Bournemouth could have gone level with Newcastle but continued their cool down, falling to Brentford.

Aston Villa, also idle because they played their match with Liverpool a few weeks ago, likely welcomed the results as well.  

Play Likes There's No Midnight (apologies to Cinderella)

Anthony Elanga: I love this game.
 His brace took Forest past Ipswich

Nottingham Forest showed no trace of a hangover from their win over Man City, handling Ipswich at
their place 4-2.  Forest took some time but once they broke through the match was gone.  Goals at 35, 37 and 41 convinced me I could switch over to the Man City - Brighton match.  Coupled with the results elsewhere, Forest are in third with a five point lead over Chelsea and six over Man City.  

Relegation Realities

Is it time to declare that race over?  Wolves beat Southampton, Ipswich lost to Nottingham Forest and Leicester lost to Man United.  The spread from 18th to 17th is now nine points.  Ipswich have lost four straight, Southampton five and Leicester six.  Hard to imagine any of the three will rally at this point.   

Cold Water

Turns out the Union - Nashville match was on Fox so with judicious use of the DVR, I was able to fit the match in between the Newcastle League Cup and the Players Championship.  All good except the Union laid an egg.  Early pressure from Nashville resulted in a totally deserved goal at 15 minutes.  Frankly, the Union defense looked shaky from the get go.  Fortunately Jovan Lukic evened things up with this wonder strike, which is already being touted as a candidate for goal of the year.  The bad news was they couldn't get to halftime with a draw, surrendering a second just before the whistle.  The score stayed 2-1 for most of the second half; I remember some Union chances but also more defensive break downs.  This was not a great day for Westfield or Glesnes.  A late PK for Nashville put the match out of reach.

Somewhat annoying that the Union had been denied a penalty after a visit to the monitor by Pierre-Luc Laauziere for a foul against Sullivan minutes before he awarded Nashville the PK after another trip to the monitor.  For my money, it was inconsistent; I didn't think either were worthy of overturning the on-field decision.  After declining to overturn the Sullivan incident, he has to leave the other one alone as well.

No More Dollar Dog Days?

In case you missed it, as the penalty incident late in the Union match unfolded, fans from the Sons of Ben section began tossing hot dogs onto the field.  Very disappointing behavior from supposedly knowledgeable fans.

Explaining Europeans World Cup Qualifiers

The process of selecting the 16 European countries that will participate in the 2026 World Cup starts Friday.  Back in December, 54 countries were divided into 12 groups - six with four teams each and six with five teams each.  They'll play a traditional home and away series with each team in their group.  The 12 group winners automatically advance to the World Cup.  The 12 runners up and the four best ranked group winners of the UEFA Nations League that didn't finish 1st or 2nd will participate in a playoff.  They'll create four brackets of four teams with each bracket having a single leg semi final and final to get the last four teams.  

The composition of some of the groups is still up in the air as the Nations League is not finished yet.   On the face of it, that competition is just glorified friendlies but it can determine your group placement (easier or harder) and does offer some of the less-skilled teams a sniff at WC qualifying.  The process is explained in detail here.

Relegation Coming To A Town Near You?

Several loyal readers alerted me to the news that the USL is moving towards a three-tiered system with promotion and relegation.  Details can be had here.  Dennis notes that, like England, there's no sense to some of the division names.  Divsion 1 for the top tier is fine but the second tier is the Championship Division and the third tier is called League One.  Sometimes, it's impossible to improve on stupidity.  Uh oh, I smell a Ted Lasso rant coming.

ICYMI

Actually, you didn't "miss" anything.  The USMNT did not distinguish themselves in an 0-1 semi-final loss to Panama in the CONCACAF Nations League.  In truth, they were probably the "better" team but this contest was not much to watch.  You can't put lipstick on a friendly, which is what the Nations League is in the end.  Neither team showed much attacking prowess or even that much interest.  Panama's goal in stoppage time at least saved us from 30 minutes of extra time.  I guess this means they get to keep the canal.

Mexico won the other semi 2-0 over Canada.  They'll play Panama Sunday at 9:30.  The US will play the third place match versus Canada at 6 on Sunday.  Hopefully, they will be better behaved than the hockey teams.  

International Break

Plenty of European World Cup Qualifying matches, some are even on Fox but most look to be on Fubo.

We'll be at Subaru Park Satruday night as the Union take on St. Louis.  Because MLS loves to play through international breaks, we'll be missing Baribo, Blake Bueno, Gazdag, Danley and Westfield. Great.  At least it won't be 30 degrees and windy.  Still early but we note that St. Louis are unbeaten with two wins and two draws.  

Enjoy the quiet time because April's going to be nuts.

It's All A Blur

So many games in six days. 

A Win That Should Have Been A Draw?

Bruno just barely gets to the cross from Barnes
REUTERS/Toby Melville 

You can't get too disappointed with three points on the road but Newcastle did not exactly distinguish themselves against 16th place West Ham in their 1-0 win.  Yes, the Hammers have been somewhat better under Graham Potter.  Yes, the match was in London.  Yes, they were missing Lewis Hall and Anthony Gordon.  Still, the performance highlights why Newcastle's Champions League credentials are so thin regardless of what place they currently hold.  Misplaced passes.  Easily muscled off the ball. Nine total shots, with three on goal compared to West Ham's nine and two.  On the plus side, they did play hard.  Expected goals were 1.49-.76.  Guimaraes got the game winner on a nice cross from Harvey Barnes. Overall it seemed like a razor thin margin against a lower table team.

If The Glass Slipper Fits...

Forest drive Guardiola to drink

We've been waiting for the roof to cave in on Nottingham Forest for several weeks now, dating back to a January 24th post where we noted that Forest have probably been the luckiest team this year.  And there have been a few cracks revealed since that post (5-0 loss to Bournemouth, the ridiculous first half against Newcastle, etc.).  With Saturday's 1-0 win over Man City, we may have to just stop speculating as to when they will crash.  This was a Champions League six-pointer and Forest prevailed.  Resolute defending kept them in the match long enough for Callum Hudson-Odoi to score an interesting goal in the 83rd minute, which we'll make this week's YouTubeableMoment.  There is some discussion as to whether this was a mistake by City's keeper Ederson or a great shot by Hudson-Odoi; certainly getting beaten at the near side is never a good look for a keeper.

Overall, a draw probably would have been the fairest result here. City had the lion's share of possession (70%) and out shot Forest 14-9.  On the other hand, shots on target were 4-3 favor Forest and the xG was close (.7 -.9 favor City).  Maybe Forest were lucky to get all three points but even getting one point here would have been a big result.  Forest are in third, two points up on Chelsea and four points up on Man City and Newcastle.

Who Took My 4-3 Thriller?

I was expecting a goal fest from the Brentford-Aston Villa match and the players started like they had all read the memo.  But after about 25 minutes, everything petered out.  It was like both sides had become scared of the other's attacking prowess.  Brentford had better possession but shots were basically even.  Villa did have the better xG at 1.30-.84.  A good three points for Villa but a disappointing watch for the neutral.

Five EPL Sides Still Alive in Europe

You can tell by the faces that Liverpool are losing the shootout

And Liverpool is not among them.  The Reds could not manage a goal at home against PSG and ended regular time in a 1-1 draw.  They proceeded to lose the penalty shootout 1-4.  Not a pretty exit for a team that not long ago looked to have a claim on the title of best club in Europe.  The FA Cup and Champions League are gone, though they still have the EPL title and the League Cup in play.

Aston Villa got a huge break in the second leg with Club Brugge when the Belgain club got an early red card. Though it took a little while, Villa had a 5-1 aggregate lead by the 57th minute; it would end 6-1.  The blowout did give me a chance to switch over to the El Classico derby that had all the snarl you'd want (though not much scoring).  It ended regular time at 2-2 and eventually went to a penalty shootout, which Real Madrid won, in part because an Atletico attempt was ruled out for a double hit (he slipped and kicked the ball off his other foot).  Arsenal, never in danger, played PSV to a 2-2 draw for a 9-2 aggregate win.

In Europa Cup, Spurs did play better than last week and came away with a 3-2 win on aggregate over AZ Alkmaar.  Even with the better performance, this still felt like a struggle.   They did level things in a tepid first half.  Maddison got them the lead early in the second half but they gave it away on a goofy play in the 63rd minute.  Odobert's second goal at 74 minutes ended up being the difference.  Gotta figure Ange gets to finish the season now.  Meanwhile, Man United kept things interesting at Old Trafford, finally easing into the lead at 50 minutes, then adding to it with two late goals.  The 5-2 aggregate final is misleading.

And in the Europa Conference League, Chelsea bested Copenhagen 1-0 to win their tie 3-1.

Next up:  Arsenal get Real Madrid, Aston Villa face PSG, Spurs get Eintracht Frankfurt, Man United take on Lyon and Chelsea have ALegia Warszawa.

A Lack of Champions League Bona Fides?

So we have a top four and then another five within five points of 4th place.  If we think the EPL is going to get five spots, we'll add 10th place to the list of contenders.  But is the quality there?

Liverpool - EPL numbers say yes but they just got bounced in the round of 16 in this year's CL

Arsenal - They are doing well in the CL right now and look like the second best side in the EPL but they barely managed a draw against struggling Man United

Nottingham Forest - we've been reluctant to see them as a real contender but the win over City changes that

Chelsea - Certainly in the mix but how impressed can you be with a side that barely beats Leicester at home

Man City - Flopped in this year's CL and have no consistency in the EPL

Newcastle - Gritty enough but lots of questionable results

Brighton - Pretty hot right now but will they sustain it?

Aston Villa - Performance in this year's CL says they are legit but they struggle to show it in league play

Bournemouth - hot a while ago but not so much lately

Fulham - see Bournemouth

It's very possible that seven of these teams will be competing in the Europe next fall, with in Champions League, Europa Cup or Europa Conference League.

You Can Only Beat Who You Play

New England is not the best side right now but 2-0 on the road is still a good win.  I only saw the highlights but it looked like the U were the better side.  Took awhile for that to show on the scoreboard.  And it was Baribo, getting his sixth in three matches.  Newcomer Lukic added another in stoppage time. That one was a rocket as you can see here, complete with the call from "the voice of the Union" Dave Leno.  No bandwagon to jump on yet but it is great to see the 3-0-0 start.

Seeing Red?

So our question is whether the Champions League loss will rile Liverpool up for Sunday's Carabao Cup Final with Newcastle or will they be demoralized (and tired)?  They certainly haven't been as dominant lately.  Opta has it 58% Liverpool, 21% Newcastle, 21% draw.  Wait, there has to be a winner.  I guess they're saying 21% chance it goes to a penalty shootout.

The League Cup Final shortens the regular schedule by a two games.  We have four at 11 am on Saturday (daylight saving time, remember).  Each have pros and cons.  Everton - West Ham are close in the standings but the Toffees may be a big favorite at home.  Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest doesn't sound awesome but I'd like to see Forest does after the big win over Man City.  Speaking of City, you can see them host Brighton.  Again, wouldn't expect a close one but this is a chance for Brighton to establish their European credentials.  And there is bottom of table Southampton hosting Wolves.  Actually I can't think of a reason to watch that one.

The feature 1:30 match (on USA, not NBC - they have to cover the Players Championship with the island 17th green) is Bournemouth - Brentford.

Sunday may have the best offering with Arsenal - Chelsea at 9:30.  Of course, this one is on Peacock.  The USA offering at the same time is Fulham - Spurs.  Take a break to watch the Carabao Cup Final at 12:30, then come back for the 3 pm match Leicester - Man United.

The Union host Nashville at Subaru Park on Sunday at 2:25.  That one is double paywalled but with the afternoon start, we may be able to listen in on WPEN.

The spring international break starts on Monday.  Notable matches include the CONCACAF Nations League semi-final between US and Panama (not true that they are playing for possession of the canal) on Thurday at 7 pm.  Europe begins their World Cup qualifying process on Friday.

Gonna miss those Tuesday-Thursday late afternoon matches for a few weeks but they'll be back 4/8-10.

As Michael B points out, the spring break means that the EPL run-in is just about here.  And I trust him on this stuff.

 

In Terrible Peril

apologies to Monty Python

Based on standings in the EFL, there were only two upsets in the fifth round of the FA Cup and neither were all that stunning.  That doesn't mean the favorites didn't face varying degrees of peril along the way to the quarter finals. 

Nottingham Forest - Great peril - Trailed Ipswich through 67 minutes, rallied for a 1-1 draw in regular time, scoreless in extra time before winning on PKs  5-4

Man City - Some peril - Were down 0-1 to Plymouth until first half stoppage time and couldn't put the result away until the 90th minute

Newcastle - see below

Doherty misses the PK that would have won it for Wolves
Note that the steward has made the save, not Kepa

Bournemouth - Terrible peril - If Matt Doherty doesn't pull his PK wide of the post in the shoot out, Wolves, not Bournemouth would be in the quarterfinal

Fulham - Great peril - Escaped by besting Man United in a PK shootout

Aston Villa - Some peril - 0-0 with Cardiff City through 67 minutes, only put the match away in the 80th minute

Crystal Palace - A little peril - Played Millwall with a man advantage for over 80 minutes but weren't safe until the 81st minute

Burnley - Terrible peril - Were in trouble almost from the kickoff and lost 0-3 to Preston

Quarter final match ups (3/29 & 3/30):

Fulham - Crystal Palace

Brighton - Nottingham Forest

Preston - Aston Villa

Bournemouth - Man City

Newcastle Never Really In It

Danny Welbeck slips the game winner past Dubravka
Action Images via Reuters/Craig Brough

Brighton were definitely a tricky opponent, just a few places behind the Magpies in the table so, I was prepared for a difficult match.  They got a PK and did hold the lead for awhile but this was clearly against the run of play.  Brighton's equalizer just before the half was more than deserved.  Mostly amazed that it stayed 1-1 for as long as it did.  Danny Welbeck got the game winner at 114 minutes.  They played 120 minutes, lost Anthony Gordon to a three-match suspension (which will include the Carabao Cup final) on a soft but incredibly stupid two-handed push to the back of a Brighton defender's head) and saw Isak leave with a tight groin.  And they didn't advance to the quarters.  Other than that, I thought it went well.

No Respect

This is what an own goal looks like; Brandon Mechele
 after accidently putting the ball into his own net

The studio crew was quite high on Club Brugge's chances of raining on Aston Villa's parade in the Champions League Round of 16.  Kind of a slap in the face given the respective situations -  Villa an automatic top 16 while Club Brugge had to upset Atlalanta.  Despite Leon Bailey's early goal, unfortunately they looked to be right.  The Belgians leveled quickly and basically dominated play throughout.  Late in the second half, Dennis and I were both thrilled that a 1-1 draw was still possible but wondered if they could hold on.  Next thing we knew, Club Brugge offered up an own goal and sloppy challenge in the box for a PK and Villa were taking a 3-1 lead back to Birmingham.  

Speaking of a result against the run of play, Liverpool were thoroughly overrun by PSG and yet somehow have a 1-0 lead heading to Anfield.  The stats are stunning; possession 71/29, shots 27/2, shots on target 2/1 and xG 2.12/.31 all favor PSG.  Sub Harvey Elliott's 87th minute tally was the only goal.

Arsenal had a much easier time of it, crushing PSV 7-1 on the road.  That one looks over.

Wait, all three EPL teams came away with road wins

You Still Have To Play Them

Spurs draw in the Europa Cup looked like a guaranteed road to the final.  Their Round of 16 tie with AZ Alkmaar surely would be a mere formality.  Except someone forgot to tell the Dutch, who came away with a 1-0 lead after the first leg.  I didn't see the match but the reviews suggest Spurs were less than stellar.  Not that AZ Alkmaar were all that great, as their tally was an own goal from Lucas Bergvall.  This is by no means an insurmountable lead, especially with the second leg being back in London.  But it's yet another below expectations performance.  

Meanwhile, Man United were not exactly knocking 'em dead in Spain.  Certainly the 1-1 draw at Real Sociedad was not a disaster and they are still likely to advance.  But, apparently they could have gotten a much better result and maybe been set up for an easier time in Manchester next week.

The EPL's candidate in the Europa Conference League - Chelsea - had an okay time of it, getting a 2-1 win at Copenhagen.

Is That Michael Oliver?

I have seen it myself and heard a few announcers voice concerns as well - have Michael Oliver lost his mojo since getting death threats in the wake of sending off Arsenal's Lewis-Skelly earlier this year.  I swear there have been a few times when he just didn't look all that decisive.  Then there was incident in the Crystal Palace - Millwall FA Cup match this weekend in which Millwall keeper Liam Roberts took a high boot to Jean-Philippe Mateta.  You can see the video here.  As I understand it, Oliver did not call a foul on the play.  The VAR suggested he go to the monitor for a second look and did show Roberts the red card after that review.   Now, the force of a collision - and any injuries - are not supposed to be a factor in the decision.  However, this looks to be a textbook definition of serious foul play.  Roberts may have gotten the ball first but he then contacted Mateta in the face with his boot.  

Unfortunately, as detailed by the NYT here, the play was part of a generally ugly day in and around Selhurst Park.

Check Out the New Guys

Based on their second straight easy win, I concede that I may have been too hasty in my assessment that the Union's off season moves were insufficient.  Though not perfect - they were chaotic in possession and committed numerous turnovers - the 4-1 win over Cincinnati FC was well-deserved.

Most satisfying for me was the play of newcomer Jovan Lukic.  He could well be the solution to the two-headed monster of Flach-McGlynn in which we compromised defense or offense, depending on which one was out there.  I wasn't aware of him so much in the first half but in the second half with the Union defending the River End, you could see his work.  Where Flach accomplished it with tireless running, Lukic just seems to know where he needs to be.  He's collecting interceptions, tackles and clearances while generating some offense as well.  Olwetu Makhanya was capable as a center back.  Frankie Westfield did okay at right back.  And Bruno Damiani came on late and got a goal set up by a sweet pass from Quinn Sullivan; what the heck, we'll make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.

Baribo: 5 goals in 2 games. Is it really that easy?

The Union's finishing on Saturday was real and it was spectacular. Baribo had a hat trick by 51st
minute, cued by assists from Wagner and Gazdag.  Almost good enough to make one forget it was 32 degrees and windy.  On that point, when the 4th official held up the board to indicate added time, Dennis noted that it now carries the name Celsius, the energy drink sponsor of MLS.  So when he saw the board labeled Celsius showing 4, he thought it was the temperature.  Sounded funnier as a text.

It's only two matches in so the jury is still out but the early evidence is very encouraging.

Facing More Peril

Another week with no days off.until Friday.  

Newcastle head to London to take on West Ham on Monday at 4 pm (oh yeah, spring forward Sunday at 2 am). Opta's projection wasn't available at publication time but I'm guessing the Magpies are slight to moderate favorites.  They will be without Gordon and have lost Lewis Hall for the season with an ankle injury.  I think they will face some peril.

On paper the 7:30 match looks great with 3rd (Nottingham Forest) vs 4th (Man City).  More likely, this is another chance for Cinderella's carriage to be turned back into a pumpkin.  Note, we have said that before and Forest are still riding around in style.  Just three games at 10 am.  We agree with the TV pick - Brighton hosting Fulham.  These are two sides next to each other in the table and both with not unrealistic chances for berths in the minor European competitions.  Liverpool - Southampton and Crystal Palace - Ipswich are the other choices.

The feature 12:30 match at 12:30 on NBC is Brentford - Aston Villa.  Villa are slight underdogs, probably based on their road record.  I'm fine with that as I think they do better when they are not favored.  There's a bonus 3 pm match (Peacock only) with Wolves - Everton. That should be good watch.

Three more on Sunday.  Spurs host Bournemouth at 10 am (the clocks, remember?).  Indicative of their current form, Spurs are slight underdogs even at home.  Ouch.  Despite being the better choice at 10 am, that one is on Peacock.  The USA game is Chelsea  - Leicester, which could be a car crash.  NBC grabbed the 12:30 match between Man United and Arsenal at Old Trafford.  Sounds like a classic except maybe not so much this year.  Opta has Arsenal at 52% for the win and 26% for the draw.

All of the European competitions have the second leg of their Round of 16 ties.  Tuesday we'll go with Liverpool vs PSG; the Reds need to come up with a better effort or their 1-0 lead won't be enough.  Wednesday is Aston Villa hosting Club Brugge; we like their odds with 3-1 lead but they can't be complacent here.  Thursday we'll be focused on Spurs - AZ Alkmaar; down 0-1, Spurs are definitely still in this.

The Philadelphia Union head to New England for a 7:30 Saturday match; I think it's double paywalled behind Apple and MLS Season Pass.  Early reports suggest this is not a great test of whether the U are for real or not, as New England aren't expected to be that tough this year.

The routine of getting work, grading papers, chores, exercise or whatever done by 3 pm so I can settle in and watch one of the European competitions is very addictive.

Journey to the Midlands

Nearly two weeks ago (can't believe it's been that long already), Brenna and I set out for our much anticipated trip to the UK. For me, this was mainly a pilgrimage to Villa Park and whatever else we ended up doing was gravy on top. Brenna had a much more holistic - and probably normal - view of the trip, planning to enjoy both the soccer and non-soccer portions. The travel editions of this blog have consistently been the most popular, so there is a high bar for me to reach with my first meaningful post in many years. Let’s see how I do....  

 

Some Draws Feel Like a Loss 

View from our seats vs Ipswich

First up was the regularly scheduled men’s fixture, Ipswich visiting Villa Park. We chose to go to this particular match for several reasons, one of which was that it was very winnable on paper. Everyone knows by now how that worked out. The weather was dreary, Villa were listless, and the crowd was agitated and/or bored. Ipswich even did us a solid by going down to 10 after 30 minutes, but also took a 1-0 lead on basically their only shot on target. Trying to inject some life into the team, Emery brought on new loanee Marcus Rashford for his first Villa appearance. My feelings on him have been largely negative in the past, but maybe I am being unfair and don't know the whole story. Regardless, he was so obviously the best player on the field for the final 30 minutes, including setting up the equalizer, that I couldn't help but be impressed. My main takeaway from the match was that the home crowd really took this match for granted and did not do enough to help the team get across the line. The pre and post match hospitality did brighten our spirits a little, but it was not the start we expected. 

That night, we were given a lifeline by the FA scheduling gods – the home fixture against Liverpool was rescheduled from mid-March to the upcoming Wednesday. I hopped on my phone, grabbed some tickets, rearranged some other plans, and we had a second chance on our hands! We didn’t have high hopes given the gap in quality between Ipswich and Liverpool, but it was hard to get too much worse than what we had just seen.

 

Some Losses Just Feel Really Bad

Can't beat these seats though

In between the two men’s games, we traveled away to see the Villa women play at Leicester. They play in King Power stadium so we got to cross another EPL stadium off the list as well. The Villa away fan section was small but mighty, partly out of spirit and partly out of necessity to keep warm. On the field, the performance was a bit more lackluster. Villa had plenty of toothless possession and looked vulnerable whenever Leicester had the ball, leading to a deserved opener at 29 minutes. Going in to half down 1-0, I had the following conversation with a Leicester fan while buying hot chocolate (yes, I skipped the halftime beer for something warm).

Me: You should be up 3 nil.

Him: But we aren’t! It’s anyone’s game.

Except the Foxes must have also realized they should be up 3-0, because they scored two in quick succession to start the half and killed the game right then. By the end, the Villa section was reduced to shouts of “Just shoot! We don’t care if it goes in! Just try!” Not their finest performance. Despite the product on the field, we had a fun time traveling on the team sponsored coach and experiencing an away game. 

 

Intermission

Between all the games, we also went on the stadium tour at Villa Park, which I am obliged to mention is fighting for the #1 spot on TripAdvisor for tours in Birmingham. Go give them 5 stars.

You’ve already seen Brenna and I at the press conference table, but we also got to explore the fancy hospitality suites, walk on the sideline, and sit in the home team locker room. Brenna chose Ollie Watkins while I tried my best to fill McGinn’s seat, which is obviously a difficult task given his, ahem, physique.

 

 

The most shocking part was the away locker room. This is a club worth over $1 billion, but their away showers look like something you might find at a random high school, including rusty tubs. Maybe it really gives them that home field advantage. We were told that all away teams don't want anything fancy in their locker rooms because they all bring their own stuff anyway, but I don't think they are traveling with showers.

Some Draws Feel Like a Win

Back to Villa Park for the 4th and final time on Wednesday night. Our seats were at similar vantage, but slightly farther back and to the left. We were just hoping for a good game and to not feel like we incinerated our money with this last minute change. Right from the start, the crowd had a completely different energy compared to Saturday. The team had more energy as well, with some early chances including a goal disallowed for offsides, again involving an energetic Rashford. I didn’t intend to be a curmudgeon about it, but when the ball went in and everyone jumped to their feet, I simply raised my hand to signal offsides. Of course I was right about the offsides, but Brenna will (correctly) argue that I am missing the point.

A hard fought, if maybe not deserved, draw

The start was not all positive as precarious passes and sloppy defense led to a 1-0 deficit. But the response from both the players and the crowd was there and we equalized shortly after with a scrappy goal. Just before halftime, we had the perfect angle to watch - in what seemed like slow motion - as Watkins tucked a header into the side netting. The second half was back and forth with plenty of chances to go around, though Liverpool were the only ones to take advantage and it ended 2-2. This felt like the kind of game that is supposed to be played in the EPL, though maybe a little more quality from both sides could have been expected. 

 

So what did we learn from all this action? A few things:

• Villa can be competitive with any team in any league, for better or worse.
• The home fans really need to come up with some more diverse chants.
• Expectations for Rashford (or Rashy, as he apparently is called) are high among the locals, and it seems to be deserved. 
• Birmingham is not the city for us and we'll probably just stick to London next time around.

Sprinkled in between all the soccer were day trips to Malvern, Oxford, and 2 days in London. Highlights included meeting the weirdest local ever in Malvern, seeing filming locations from Harry Potter in Oxford, and seeing Tom Hiddleston’s abs in Much Ado About Nothing.