Friday, May 17, 2024

Denouement

denouement
noun C ]
US 
 
/deɪˈnuː.mɑ̃ː/
 UK 
 
/deɪˈnuː.mɒ̃/
the end of a story, in which everything is explained, or the end result of a situation

Also, a wingback for the French national team...

We approach the final weekend of EPL action with the title and some European berths still up for grabs.  Not a particularly satisfying set of results for Newcastle or the Union.


Whither Europe?

Looks like Amrabat got Gordon's achilles heel; he had a torn sock as
 proof.  Not called on field and VAR didn't intervene.  Looks
 questionable but ESPN didn't even include it their list of this week's
 controversial VAR decisions
I guess Brighton felt they still had something to play for and gave Newcastle all they could handle at home.  Damn them.  That one was a 1-1 draw, or two dropped points the Magpies really couldn't afford.  They followed that with a 3-2 loss at Old Trafford, with Man United looking a little more lively with Bruno Fernandes back in the lineup.  Newcastle had the better xG in both matches, which is another way of saying their finishing let them down a little.  

They go into the final weekend down three points to Chelsea but with a better goal differential and level with Man United but with a much better goal differential.  To get 6th, Chelsea would have to lose at home to Bournemouth while Newcastle would need to win at Brentford.  In other words, Europa League is a real long shot now.  For 7th, the Magpies need only match Man United's result on the road against Brighton.   But wait, 7th doesn't guarantee a spot in the Europa Conference League because Man United could still win the FA Cup.  That would mean 7th isn't enough for Europe this year.

Dennis asks if I even want them to qualify for Europa Conference League.  I think I do as long as Newcastle use it to mix in the younger guys.


Closure on Some Fronts

A brace for Haaland vs Spurs sews up scoring title
for Haaland (photo AP)
Man City's win over Fulham ended Liverpool's slim shot at the EPL title.  Aston Villa's stirring
comeback draw against Liverpool (see below) paired with Spurs' loss to Man City means the Villans will be in the Champions League for the first time.   The title chase is not settled as Arsenal beat Man United 1-0 and Man City racked up two wins - 4-0 over Fulham and 2-0 over Spurs.  A curious aspect of the Spurs-City contest was the apparent reluctance of Tottenham fans to support their side out of fear that a win would improve Arsenal's chances of winning the title.  Really?  

At the other end of the table, Burnley's loss to Spurs sealed the Clarets' fate; they are returning to the Championship division.  Luton Town lost to West Ham, which in all likelihood means they are going down as well.

Chelsea won twice, one of those wins a come-from-behind 3-2 victory over Nottingham Forest.  Jackson's late goal meant Forest didn't clinch safety from relegation and Newcastle dropped to seventh. Thanks.  It did boost Chelsea's chances for Europa League.


Duran Duran or There Is No Crying In Football

Though there would be other ways to clinch the Champions League berth, a result for Aston Villa at home to Liverpool was the quickest and safest.  The day did not start well as Martinez gave up an own goal in the second minute.  Tielemans leveled it quickly but Liverpool got two more and took a 3-1 lead into the late stages.  Enter Jhon Duran in the 79th minute.  He scores in the 83rd minute and again in the 85th minute.  The video is here as this week's YouTubeableMoments.  Note the celebration by Tom Hanks, Villa's most famous fan second most famous fan (after Dennis) third most famous fan (after Dennis and Prince William).  Certainly there is no crying after a comeback like that, which puts Aston Villa into the Champions League for the first time (they did play in some of the predecessor competitions).  


VAR Under Review

Certainly VAR has gotten its share of attention this year.  Now, Wolves have introduced a motion to scrap it in the EPL.  The story is here.  Probably won't pass as it will need 14 votes to be adopted.

I"ve been looking at some of the data and I'm not sure exactly what the definitions are about benefiting or being victimized by VAR.  For example, is the data based only on situations where VAR overruled the onfield official?  Or does it also include mistakes where VAR should have overruled the onfield referee but didn't.  There could be big differences in who gained or lost from VAR based on those distinctions.  Until I get those kinds of questions straightened out, I'm going to hold off posting a table I've been working on.  Stay tuned.  


Union Drop Six at Home and Suffer Pitch Invasion

MoM - Mammal of the Match
Topps wasted no time in pouncing on this
No good news from Subaru Park as the Union lost 2-3 on Saturday to Orlando and NYCFC 1-2 on Wednesday.  They are now a shocking 1-1-4 at home and have lost four consecutive at the once friendly confines along the Delaware.  I didn't see or follow Saturday night's match and Wednesday I listened on WPEN so I don't have a lot to work with.  I will say it sounded like the Union just didn't convert their chances on Tuesday.  

Perhaps it's a touch indicative of the situation but the biggest news from Subaru Park was the pitch invasion by a wayward raccoon.  The uncut version is here.  Dave Leno on the radio described it with the same energy as he calls a game - that is full tilt (that audio is (here).  Everyone looked to be having a good time with it, except Jim Curtin and the Union players.  Down 0-1 at the time, that's understandable.

They are now 9th in the table.  


What's Left?

Well the title is still on the line, though there are only two scenarios in which Arsenal win.  The Gunners have to beat Everton at home while City must lose or draw at home against West Ham.  Man City have not been a juggernaut lately so maybe a draw in David Moyes' final match with West Ham is not impossible.  

Fifth through seventh are still unsettled.  A Spurs' win or draw at Sheffield United is enough for them to take 5th and sure spot in the Europe League.  A Spurs' loss coupled with a Chelsea win would give the spot to the Blues.  Sixth isn't out of the question for Newcastle but it requires a Chelsea loss and a Magpie win.  Practically speaking, Man United have no shot at 6th because their goal differential sucks but they could grab 7th from Newcastle with a better result against Brighton than Newcastle get at Brentford.

For the last relegation spot, Luton Town 1) need to beat Fulham 2) need Nottingham Forest to lose at Burnley 3) need to erase a 12 goal deficit in their goal differential compared to Nottingham Forest.  The first two aren't out of the question but the last one looks insurmountable.  

As a reminder, all the matches are Sunday at 11 am.  NBC will have City v West Ham, USA got Arsenal v Everton.  CNBC got Brighton - Man United while the Golf Channel will air Chelsea - Bournemouth.  The rest are on Peacock.

The Union are in New England Saturday night at 7:30 on "free" Apple.  Actually we'll probably miss that one too as Dennis and his Sportif Allentown will be defending their title in the Canadian American Friendship tournament.  

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