Anti-climax

Isak ready to crown Bruno with bucket hat after his
goal seals the 4-2 over Brentford

Feels like the season deserved a better final Sunday.  Just not much drama.  Man City scored in the second minute and again at 18 minutes so the title race was over by 11:20.  Likewise, Nottingham Forest got one at two minutes and another at 14 minutes, ending much chance they would lose, and certainly not by six goals.  The only thing that got close was the "race" for 7th place.  Newcastle looked safe at 3-0 but not so much at 3-2.  With Man United up by two at Brighton, the Magpies' only chance for Europe looked a little iffy.  But even that drama didn't last long as Newcastle restored a two goal lead within minutes. That last goal was originally supposed to be a PK but VAR downgraded to a free kick from just outside the box.  The free kick was saved but Guimaraes knocked in the rebound for the clinching goal, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.

Could Have Been Worse

Though I'll admit disappointment that Newcastle finished behind Chelsea, the season has to be viewed as relatively successful.  Recall that the big summer acquisition - Sandro Tonali - showed up under a cloud of suspicion of illegal betting, with the cloud turning into a downpour as he got an eight month suspension.  Injuries were legion, a particular problem given they had a Champions League fixture set thrown into the mix.  They deserve credit for not panicking and making costly short term moves while still finishing a respectable seventh.  This doesn't feel like a team that needs to be ripped apart and rebuilt - well, except maybe the physio and training staff.  Here's hoping they continue their measured approach for improvement.

State of the Game

BFS Track and Field Correspondent Jack W sends along this article from Rory Smith and Tariq Panja of the NYT,  noting there is no lack of drama off the pitch for the EPL.  Among the topics covered:

- teams getting points deductions
- teams not getting points deductions (looking at you Man City, who's "alleged" infractions are far more egregious than anything Everton or Nottingham Forest did)
- threatened legal actions
- development of cliques (which used to just be two - the Big Six and everybody else)
- the possibility of government regulation or oversight

I did enjoy the reference to Voltaire when they were discussing the EPL's apparent willingness to use the sanctions available to them:

"it is good to kill an admiral from time to time, to encourage the others.”

The problem though is that they seem to be willing to kill Chief Petty Officers, not the admirals.  

Despite these travails, so far the league's appeal doesn't seem to be suffering.  

Poch Out; ten Hag Next?

Pochettino say buh-bye to Chelsea

Maurico Pochettino and Chelsea have agreed, by mutual consent, to part ways.  If it was a marriage they would say the divorce was due to "irreconcilable differences."  BFS La Liga Correspondent Michael B sends along this article from The Guardian analyzing why things didn't work out.  Basically, the issue is that ownership wants to control more and Poch was not into that.  I wonder what managers would be.  Is Chelsea trying to move away from the more traditional model where the manager pretty much runs the show?  Credit to Poch that despite being saddled with questionable acquisitions and key injuries, he still made something of the team.  They were 11th with 25 points at the halfway mark but finished 6th after taking 38 points in the second half.  

You wonder if Erik ten Hag survives if Man United don't win the FA Cup on Saturday.  Actually, you wonder if he will survive even if they do.  Unlike the Chelsea, this team did not progress.  They were 7th with 31 points halfway through and ended up 8th after adding only 29 more points in the second half.  Before closing with two wins, they had an 11-game stretch in which they went 2-4-5 which included loses to Fulham and Crystal Palace and draws with Burnley, Bournemouth and Brentford. 

I hear Pochettino might be available.  Also, so might Roberto De Zerbi, who announced that he would not be returning to Brighton next year.  

What Goes Up...

All three of last year's promoted sides - Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United - are heading right back down.  The last time this happened in the EPL was the 1997-98 season, when Barnsley, Bolton and Crystal Palace were sent down after just one season in the top tier.  As you'll see below, the Luton Town and Sheffield departures weren't surprises but many thought Burnley would survive.

Points Deductions

There had been concern that the points deductions (eight from Everton and four from Nottingham Forest) were going to wreak havoc in the relegation battle.  That did not happen.  In fact, add the four points back to Nottingham Forest and they still finish 17th.  The impact on Everton was somewhat more pronounced, as an extra eight points would have put them 12th instead of 15th.

  

Grading the Prognisticators

Recall at the beginning of the season, I compiled the predictions of several sources to get a sense of where people thought teams would finish.  The table is republished with a few additions below.

The sum of squared errors (SSE - actual minus projected squared) shows us a couple of things.  First, 442 had the lowest SSE of the forecasters, indicating they did the "best;"  The Guardian and The Supercomputer were not far behind.  Actually, the average of the seven was the second best.  Second, by looking at the SSE for each team, we can see which clubs "surprised" the pundits the most.  At 224, Brentford's 16th place finish was the biggest miss, with most seeing the Bees at 10th or 11th.  Bournemouth was the reverse, not only not getting relegated but finishing a respectable 12th.  Lastly we note Man United was a consensus Champions League qualifier but ended up only 8th.  

We also may have a new version of Capital One credit card commercials.  As in choosing Capital One is even easier than picking Man City to win the EPL title.  

New England Revolution: The Sheffield United of the MLS?

The Philadelphia Union arrived in Foxborough slumping badly.  This was an really good time to have the Revolution on the schedule.  With just two wins and a draw to their name, New England did look like a chance for the Union, even on the road, to grab some points.  Those odds went up dramatically when Spaulding got sent off for DOGSO in just the 14th minute.  Though they took their time about it, the Union slowly added goals to take 3-0 win.  That  actually might be a bit flattering to them as the stats aren't as dominant as you would expect in this situation; for example, xG was only 2.5 to 1.6.   Better to not think about how the match would have played out at even strength and be happy to come home with three points.  They are still only in 8th, with a host of teams on their tail.  I don't think we can say they are cured, just better than they were a week ago.

Unfinished Business

The EPL season is over but there's a few items of unfinished business.  The FA Cup Final is Saturday morning at 10 am.  That the final is only available on ESPN+ is a bit of a reveal as to the competition's status.  If I understand the odds right, the betting line has City at 77% to win.  That would be fine with me as Newcastle would then get the Europa Conference League berth.  Yes, I realize that it is one step above a participation trophy but I think it could be a useful competition to develop some of the youth talent.  Or just another match in which someone gets hurt.   

Sunday has the Championship Division Promotional Playoff.  This article explains why it's often called the Richest Match in English Football. This year's edition features Leeds United vs Southampton at 10 am on Sunday on ESPN+.

The Union are still on the road, this time at Charlotte for a 7:30 match on Saturday.  My streak of seeing Union matches will end at one as this one is behind the MLS Season Pass paywall.  I will get to see them live on Wednesday at Subaru Park vs Toronto.  These are two teams just above the Union in the standings.  Draws are pretty much musts.