Put Away Those Passports

Thanks to Man United's unlikely but deserved 2-1 win over Man City in the FA Cup Final, Newcastle will not be playing in Europe next year.  Given that they are losing out on a third tier competition - the Europa Conference League - this is not a disaster.  Spending Thursdays in Gdansk or Salzburg, then playing Sunday matches isn't all that glamorous or lucrative.  It would have been a chance to give younger players some experience but otherwise, not a big loss.  

Actually, Chelsea are likely more ticked about this result than Newcastle.  The FA Cup winner gets a Europa League berth, so Chelsea are kicked down to the Europa Conference League.  Surely not the European experience they were hoping for.

D'oh: Gvardiol heads the ball perfectly over his own
 keeper for Garnacho to run onto for a 1-0 for United

That final featured one of the better defensive howlers of the year, this miscommunication between keeper Ortega and defender Gvardiol.  That was the first goal and United added another before halftime.  City didn't score until the 87th minute and looked totally lifeless and perplexed the whole match.  Well, maybe that's an exaggeration as the match stats are pretty close.  But that certainly wasn't a City side that would scare anybody.

180 Minutes Later...

We are still waiting for a goal.  Wow, two straight 0-0 draws for the Union.  I was keeping track of Saturday night's 0-0 draw with Charlotte on-line so I can't really comment on how they looked.  All I know is that the score never changed.  The stats say they had 11 shots, five on target and expected goals of 1.0.  I was at Subaru Park for Wednesday's "contest" with Toronto, in which they managed just one shot on target.  I'm not sure how they managed even .8 expected goals based on the shots they took.  Toronto had one shot off the crossbar and managed to sky a shot from the six over the bar so 0-2 would have been a fair result here.  

A Geordie in Philly; Matty Longstaff
made a nuisance of himself
Photo: Steven Falk

The match did provide a chance to see former Magpie Matty Longstaff in action.  He certainly looked to cover a lot of ground, though I haven't found a stat on distance covered.  He also looks very grabby and eventually did earn a yellow card late in the match.  Though tempted, I did resist yelling out "your brother is a much better player."  

The Union last scored with the opposition at full strength in the 47th minute against NYCFC; that's 223 minutes ago; 237 if we add the 14 minutes they were at equal strength versus New England.  They didn't generate any serious chances against Toronto and appeared content to have toothless possession in the middle third of the pitch.  Most of the attacking was misplaced passes either right to the defense or harmlessly over the defenders.  

For the glass is half full crowd, this was the third straight clean sheet for the Union and the back duo of Elliot and Glesnes look to have sorted some things out.  Also, with Blake out 4-6 weeks after meniscus surgery, seeing Semmle's strong performances in goal is comforting.  And as noted last week, while these maybe weren't must-win matches, they were must-not-lose contests so they didn't drop any further behind other playoff contenders.  

At some point though, these draws have to turn into wins or the U will be sitting out this post season.

WARNING: WONKINESS AHEAD

The Laws of the Game Under A Microscope: Part I - VAR

Thanks to Wolverhampton, VAR will be getting a thorough going over this summer.  I think we've been clear about our bias here at BFS; it needs some tweaking like better communication, more transparency and improved efficiency but we think it should stay.  Part of the problem in the debate is that people don't follow through on the implications of eliminating VAR and that either question is framed incorrectly or they use the wrong data to answer the question.

Let us start with this list compiled by ESPN showing every call that was overturned based on the use  of VAR of which there were 110.  Note that if your position is that VAR should be eliminated, these are the only calls the matter.  The cases in which VAR (correctly or incorrectly) did not intervene are irrelevant to your argument because in those circumstances you got exactly what you wanted - the call on the field stood.

Clearly, there was an impact in many of those 110 cases; the table below from the ESPN article shows the net gain or loss in goals as result of overturned calls: 

VAR - NET SCORE

Fulham +5

Nottm Forest +5

Aston Villa +4

Manchester City +4

Everton +2

Brentford +1

Brighton & Hove Albion +1

Burnley +1

Arsenal 0

Liverpool 0

Newcastle 0

AFC Bournemouth -1

Luton -1

Tottenham -1

Chelsea -2

Crystal Palace -2

Manchester United -2

Sheff United -3

West Ham -4

Wolves -7

We can see why Wolves might be upset.  Not sure why Nottingham Forest are so quick to join with them in the push to eliminate VAR though.  

But this isn't an indication of whether VAR is working or not.  The whole point was to make sure egregious mistakes did get overturned.  Realizing it's a subjective question, don't we want to know how many of those calls should have stood?  Fortunately, there is a group called the Key Match Incidents (KMI) panel that does just that.  The KMI panel is made up of former players, coaches and referees and was formed to assess key decisions in Premier League matches. 

So what did they find?  The KMI panel determined that there were 31 errors related to VAR in the 23-24 season; they are listed here, again courtesy of ESPN.  A careful read of that list reveals that 26 of the errors were cases in which VAR should have intervened but didn't and just five incidences where VAR incorrectly overturned the call on the field.  In other words, VAR intervention was correctly applied over 95% of the time (105/110).   Being more blunt and graphic, VAR prevented teams from being screwed by 105 shitty calls.

Again, the 26 errors in which VAR should have overturned calls are not relevant to the argument that the system needs to be scrapped.  We can't even be sure they are an indication that the system sucks because we don't know what percentage this represents.  VAR is supposed to look at every goal plus a ton of other key moments (possible fouls in the box, potential red cards, etc.)  We do know there were 1,246 goals scored this year but the number of potential PKs and red cards that weren't given is unknowable.  But it sure seems that 26 errors is going to be a very small miniscule percentage of potential calls (like under 1%?).  

A table in the second ESPN article shows the league table corrected for the VAR errors.  We have three problems here.  First, it is not the same as what the table would have looked like without VAR; it's what the table would look like with a "flawless" VAR system.  Second, unless it was the last play of the match, it's hard to say the match would have played out the same the rest of the way had the error not been made.  Lastly, the methodology looks a bit dodgy to me.  Take the error in the Nottingham Forest - Newcastle match.  With the score 2-2, Forest "should have been" awarded a PK in the 62nd minute.  VAR declined to overturn and Newcastle went on to win 3-2.  I could see a draw would be a fair result but ESPN says Newcastle would have lost that match if the PK had been awarded and puts the Magpies at a -3 if VAR was working right.  That is an incredible leap.  The PK conversion is not 100% and then you're saying that Newcastle would not have scored in remaining 28+ minutes. 

Going against my own advice, I used the ESPN articles and match data to construct my assessment of what the table would have looked like without VAR.  Many times it was clear cut - just add or subtract the goals and recalculate the final score.  Sometimes the call had no impact on a match (e.g. Chelsea would have only beaten West Ham 4-0 instead of 5-0).  Sometimes it did (Nottingham Forest would have drawn Burnley 1-1 instead of winning 2-1).  The hairiest ones involve red cards.  For example, on 12/17, Ben Mee got a red card late due to VAR intervention with Brentford up 1-0 on Aston Villa, who scored twice in the final 10 minutes to take a 2-1 win.  Rightly or wrongly, for purposes of this analysis, I assumed any goals scored after a VAR-induced red card, would not have happened so I have this as a -3 for Villa and plus 3 for Brentford.  Here's the table:

Note that it is ordered by the adjusted finish, not actual finish (which is the number the first column).  Biggest change is that Aston Villa would not have made Champions League.  Yes, Wolves would have gained the most points and the most places if the system were scrapped.  

I suppose you could argue, if it doesn't make that difference, why y'all even bother as Ted Lasso would ask?  Aston Villa probably will say it makes a difference.  Plus, isn't it fairer that 105 bad calls were addressed.  You could argue that it disrupts the flow of the game but I suggest a better target if you're worred about that is to deal with players rolling around in agony on the pitch for non-existent injuries.

A final point here.  The poster child for VAR mistakes was the Luis Diaz goal ruled out for offside and the VAR mistakenly thinking the call on the field was goal so he didn't intervene.  Imagine had that happened with no VAR.  The clamor for instituting some kind of system to allow for correction of egregious errors would have been deafening.  We're all for improvements but calling for trashing the whole thing is just sour grapes.  Your motto can be "We know they were shitty calls but they were shitty calls in our favor."

Next week in Laws Under the Microscope: Blue Cards (aka Sin Bins).

Better Than the Real Forest Green

Forest Green celebrate goal in season finale vs Brighton

Finally caught up in Football Manager.  After a dreadful eight-game spell in which we managed just two wins and two draws, we closed the season with a solid nine game stretch of seven wins and two draws.  Frankly, both were driven by the strength of schedule.  We had Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham in the slump.  Anyway, like last season, we ended up sixth in the Premier League.  However, we did it with 75 points as opposed to just 62 last season so we don't see it has failure to progress.  The bad news is that, also like last year, because winners of the Carabao Cup and the FA Cup didn't finish in the top seven, we will again miss out on any of the European competitions.  Some consolation in that I was selected as Manager of the Year, likely because the preseason predictions had us finishing 17th.  

We did much better than the real Forest Green, who finished last in League Two and now find themselves where Wrexham were two years ago - in fifth tier non-league football.

Champions League Final

The season winds down with the last of the European competition finals - the Champions League final between Dortmund and Real Madrid.  That's 3 pm on Saturday on CBS.  Can't say we're ginned up for this but we will likely watch.

Then it will be back to Subaru Park to hear the Canadian National Anthem for the second time this week as the Union take on Montreal.  That's at 7:30 on double pay walled MLS Season Pass.  Only 15 matches into the season, this is still pretty much in the must-win category.  

Anti-climax

Isak ready to crown Bruno with bucket hat after his
goal seals the 4-2 over Brentford

Feels like the season deserved a better final Sunday.  Just not much drama.  Man City scored in the second minute and again at 18 minutes so the title race was over by 11:20.  Likewise, Nottingham Forest got one at two minutes and another at 14 minutes, ending much chance they would lose, and certainly not by six goals.  The only thing that got close was the "race" for 7th place.  Newcastle looked safe at 3-0 but not so much at 3-2.  With Man United up by two at Brighton, the Magpies' only chance for Europe looked a little iffy.  But even that drama didn't last long as Newcastle restored a two goal lead within minutes. That last goal was originally supposed to be a PK but VAR downgraded to a free kick from just outside the box.  The free kick was saved but Guimaraes knocked in the rebound for the clinching goal, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.

Could Have Been Worse

Though I'll admit disappointment that Newcastle finished behind Chelsea, the season has to be viewed as relatively successful.  Recall that the big summer acquisition - Sandro Tonali - showed up under a cloud of suspicion of illegal betting, with the cloud turning into a downpour as he got an eight month suspension.  Injuries were legion, a particular problem given they had a Champions League fixture set thrown into the mix.  They deserve credit for not panicking and making costly short term moves while still finishing a respectable seventh.  This doesn't feel like a team that needs to be ripped apart and rebuilt - well, except maybe the physio and training staff.  Here's hoping they continue their measured approach for improvement.

State of the Game

BFS Track and Field Correspondent Jack W sends along this article from Rory Smith and Tariq Panja of the NYT,  noting there is no lack of drama off the pitch for the EPL.  Among the topics covered:

- teams getting points deductions
- teams not getting points deductions (looking at you Man City, who's "alleged" infractions are far more egregious than anything Everton or Nottingham Forest did)
- threatened legal actions
- development of cliques (which used to just be two - the Big Six and everybody else)
- the possibility of government regulation or oversight

I did enjoy the reference to Voltaire when they were discussing the EPL's apparent willingness to use the sanctions available to them:

"it is good to kill an admiral from time to time, to encourage the others.”

The problem though is that they seem to be willing to kill Chief Petty Officers, not the admirals.  

Despite these travails, so far the league's appeal doesn't seem to be suffering.  

Poch Out; ten Hag Next?

Pochettino say buh-bye to Chelsea

Maurico Pochettino and Chelsea have agreed, by mutual consent, to part ways.  If it was a marriage they would say the divorce was due to "irreconcilable differences."  BFS La Liga Correspondent Michael B sends along this article from The Guardian analyzing why things didn't work out.  Basically, the issue is that ownership wants to control more and Poch was not into that.  I wonder what managers would be.  Is Chelsea trying to move away from the more traditional model where the manager pretty much runs the show?  Credit to Poch that despite being saddled with questionable acquisitions and key injuries, he still made something of the team.  They were 11th with 25 points at the halfway mark but finished 6th after taking 38 points in the second half.  

You wonder if Erik ten Hag survives if Man United don't win the FA Cup on Saturday.  Actually, you wonder if he will survive even if they do.  Unlike the Chelsea, this team did not progress.  They were 7th with 31 points halfway through and ended up 8th after adding only 29 more points in the second half.  Before closing with two wins, they had an 11-game stretch in which they went 2-4-5 which included loses to Fulham and Crystal Palace and draws with Burnley, Bournemouth and Brentford. 

I hear Pochettino might be available.  Also, so might Roberto De Zerbi, who announced that he would not be returning to Brighton next year.  

What Goes Up...

All three of last year's promoted sides - Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United - are heading right back down.  The last time this happened in the EPL was the 1997-98 season, when Barnsley, Bolton and Crystal Palace were sent down after just one season in the top tier.  As you'll see below, the Luton Town and Sheffield departures weren't surprises but many thought Burnley would survive.

Points Deductions

There had been concern that the points deductions (eight from Everton and four from Nottingham Forest) were going to wreak havoc in the relegation battle.  That did not happen.  In fact, add the four points back to Nottingham Forest and they still finish 17th.  The impact on Everton was somewhat more pronounced, as an extra eight points would have put them 12th instead of 15th.

  

Grading the Prognisticators

Recall at the beginning of the season, I compiled the predictions of several sources to get a sense of where people thought teams would finish.  The table is republished with a few additions below.

The sum of squared errors (SSE - actual minus projected squared) shows us a couple of things.  First, 442 had the lowest SSE of the forecasters, indicating they did the "best;"  The Guardian and The Supercomputer were not far behind.  Actually, the average of the seven was the second best.  Second, by looking at the SSE for each team, we can see which clubs "surprised" the pundits the most.  At 224, Brentford's 16th place finish was the biggest miss, with most seeing the Bees at 10th or 11th.  Bournemouth was the reverse, not only not getting relegated but finishing a respectable 12th.  Lastly we note Man United was a consensus Champions League qualifier but ended up only 8th.  

We also may have a new version of Capital One credit card commercials.  As in choosing Capital One is even easier than picking Man City to win the EPL title.  

New England Revolution: The Sheffield United of the MLS?

The Philadelphia Union arrived in Foxborough slumping badly.  This was an really good time to have the Revolution on the schedule.  With just two wins and a draw to their name, New England did look like a chance for the Union, even on the road, to grab some points.  Those odds went up dramatically when Spaulding got sent off for DOGSO in just the 14th minute.  Though they took their time about it, the Union slowly added goals to take 3-0 win.  That  actually might be a bit flattering to them as the stats aren't as dominant as you would expect in this situation; for example, xG was only 2.5 to 1.6.   Better to not think about how the match would have played out at even strength and be happy to come home with three points.  They are still only in 8th, with a host of teams on their tail.  I don't think we can say they are cured, just better than they were a week ago.

Unfinished Business

The EPL season is over but there's a few items of unfinished business.  The FA Cup Final is Saturday morning at 10 am.  That the final is only available on ESPN+ is a bit of a reveal as to the competition's status.  If I understand the odds right, the betting line has City at 77% to win.  That would be fine with me as Newcastle would then get the Europa Conference League berth.  Yes, I realize that it is one step above a participation trophy but I think it could be a useful competition to develop some of the youth talent.  Or just another match in which someone gets hurt.   

Sunday has the Championship Division Promotional Playoff.  This article explains why it's often called the Richest Match in English Football. This year's edition features Leeds United vs Southampton at 10 am on Sunday on ESPN+.

The Union are still on the road, this time at Charlotte for a 7:30 match on Saturday.  My streak of seeing Union matches will end at one as this one is behind the MLS Season Pass paywall.  I will get to see them live on Wednesday at Subaru Park vs Toronto.  These are two teams just above the Union in the standings.  Draws are pretty much musts.

Denouement

denouement

noun [ C ]

US 

 /deɪˈnuː.mɑ̃ː/ UK 

 /deɪˈnuː.mɒ̃/

Add to word list 

the end of a story, in which everything is explained, or the end result of a situation

Also, a wingback for the French national team...

We approach the final weekend of EPL action with the title and some European berths still up for grabs.  Not a particularly satisfying set of results for Newcastle or the Union.

Whither Europe?

Looks like Amrabat got Gordon's achilles heel; he had a torn sock as
 proof.  Not called on field and VAR didn't intervene.  Looks
 questionable but ESPN didn't even include it their list of this week's
 controversial VAR decisions

I guess Brighton felt they still had something to play for and gave Newcastle all they could handle at home.  Damn them.  That one was a 1-1 draw, or two dropped points the Magpies really couldn't afford.  They followed that with a 3-2 loss at Old Trafford, with Man United looking a little more lively with Bruno Fernandes back in the lineup.  Newcastle had the better xG in both matches, which is another way of saying their finishing let them down a little.  

They go into the final weekend down three points to Chelsea but with a better goal differential and level with Man United but with a much better goal differential.  To get 6th, Chelsea would have to lose at home to Bournemouth while Newcastle would need to win at Brentford.  In other words, Europa League is a real long shot now.  For 7th, the Magpies need only match Man United's result on the road against Brighton.   But wait, 7th doesn't guarantee a spot in the Europa Conference League because Man United could still win the FA Cup.  That would mean 7th isn't enough for Europe this year.

Dennis asks if I even want them to qualify for Europa Conference League.  I think I do as long as Newcastle use it to mix in the younger guys.

Closure on Some Fronts

A brace for Haaland vs Spurs sews up scoring title
for Haaland (photo AP)

Man City's win over Fulham ended Liverpool's slim shot at the EPL title.  Aston Villa's stirring
comeback draw against Liverpool (see below) paired with Spurs' loss to Man City means the Villans will be in the Champions League for the first time.   The title chase is not settled as Arsenal beat Man United 1-0 and Man City racked up two wins - 4-0 over Fulham and 2-0 over Spurs.  A curious aspect of the Spurs-City contest was the apparent reluctance of Tottenham fans to support their side out of fear that a win would improve Arsenal's chances of winning the title.  Really?  

At the other end of the table, Burnley's loss to Spurs sealed the Clarets' fate; they are returning to the Championship division.  Luton Town lost to West Ham, which in all likelihood means they are going down as well.

Chelsea won twice, one of those wins a come-from-behind 3-2 victory over Nottingham Forest.  Jackson's late goal meant Forest didn't clinch safety from relegation and Newcastle dropped to seventh. Thanks.  It did boost Chelsea's chances for Europa League.

Duran Duran or There Is No Crying In Football

Though there would be other ways to clinch the Champions League berth, a result for Aston Villa at home to Liverpool was the quickest and safest.  The day did not start well as Martinez gave up an own goal in the second minute.  Tielemans leveled it quickly but Liverpool got two more and took a 3-1 lead into the late stages.  Enter Jhon Duran in the 79th minute.  He scores in the 83rd minute and again in the 85th minute.  The video is here as this week's YouTubeableMoments.  Note the celebration by Tom Hanks, Villa's most famous fan second most famous fan (after Dennis) third most famous fan (after Dennis and Prince William).  Certainly there is no crying after a comeback like that, which puts Aston Villa into the Champions League for the first time (they did play in some of the predecessor competitions).  

VAR Under Review

Certainly VAR has gotten its share of attention this year.  Now, Wolves have introduced a motion to scrap it in the EPL.  The story is here.  Probably won't pass as it will need 14 votes to be adopted.

I"ve been looking at some of the data and I'm not sure exactly what the definitions are about benefiting or being victimized by VAR.  For example, is the data based only on situations where VAR overruled the onfield official?  Or does it also include mistakes where VAR should have overruled the onfield referee but didn't.  There could be big differences in who gained or lost from VAR based on those distinctions.  Until I get those kinds of questions straightened out, I'm going to hold off posting a table I've been working on.  Stay tuned.  

Union Drop Six at Home and Suffer Pitch Invasion

MoM - Mammal of the Match
Topps wasted no time in pouncing on this

No good news from Subaru Park as the Union lost 2-3 on Saturday to Orlando and NYCFC 1-2 on Wednesday.  They are now a shocking 1-1-4 at home and have lost four consecutive at the once friendly confines along the Delaware.  I didn't see or follow Saturday night's match and Wednesday I listened on WPEN so I don't have a lot to work with.  I will say it sounded like the Union just didn't convert their chances on Tuesday.  

Perhaps it's a touch indicative of the situation but the biggest news from Subaru Park was the pitch invasion by a wayward raccoon.  The uncut version is here.  Dave Leno on the radio described it with the same energy as he calls a game - that is full tilt (that audio is (here).  Everyone looked to be having a good time with it, except Jim Curtin and the Union players.  Down 0-1 at the time, that's understandable.

They are now 9th in the table.  

What's Left?

Well the title is still on the line, though there are only two scenarios in which Arsenal win.  The Gunners have to beat Everton at home while City must lose or draw at home against West Ham.  Man City have not been a juggernaut lately so maybe a draw in David Moyes' final match with West Ham is not impossible.  

Fifth through seventh are still unsettled.  A Spurs' win or draw at Sheffield United is enough for them to take 5th and sure spot in the Europe League.  A Spurs' loss coupled with a Chelsea win would give the spot to the Blues.  Sixth isn't out of the question for Newcastle but it requires a Chelsea loss and a Magpie win.  Practically speaking, Man United have no shot at 6th because their goal differential sucks but they could grab 7th from Newcastle with a better result against Brighton than Newcastle get at Brentford.

For the last relegation spot, Luton Town 1) need to beat Fulham 2) need Nottingham Forest to lose at Burnley 3) need to erase a 12 goal deficit in their goal differential compared to Nottingham Forest.  The first two aren't out of the question but the last one looks insurmountable.  

As a reminder, all the matches are Sunday at 11 am.  NBC will have City v West Ham, USA got Arsenal v Everton.  CNBC got Brighton - Man United while the Golf Channel will air Chelsea - Bournemouth.  The rest are on Peacock.

The Union are in New England Saturday night at 7:30 on "free" Apple.  Actually we'll probably miss that one too as Dennis and his Sportif Allentown will be defending their title in the Canadian American Friendship tournament.  

Distracted Viewing

Caught a surprising number of matches despite a busy weekend.  In truth, much of it was distracted viewing.  For example, I watched the end of Liverpool-Spurs while doing initial set up for the concert.

Routs

Distracted viewing works better when the match is a blowout and you'd have to say that seven of the ten matches were not close.  Happily, one of those was Newcastle's 4-1 win over Burnley.  It all seemed pretty easy.  Heck, even Sean Longstaff scored.  The window is slowing closing on Burnley's time in the top tier.

Actually it was four; Haaland had a good day
Photo: Richard Sellers/PA via AP

Chelsea flattened West Ham 5-0, ending the latter's hopes for Europe next year and probably ensuring that David Moyes will not be managing the Hammers next year.  In fact, later in the week, West Ham announced that Moyes will "leaving next year."  I guess technically that's not an in-season sack but it's sure close.    Crystal Palace put a dent in Man United's plans for Europe with a 4-0 win at Selhurst Park.  At this point you have to wonder if even winning the FA Cup will save ten Hag.  Liverpool made hash of Tottenham in a 4-2 win that was nowhere near as tight as that scoreline suggests.  Not a surprise but Man City blew past Wolves in a 5-1 final.  Haaland had four in that one, likely sealing another scoring title for him.   At a measly 3-0, we can't call Arsenal's win over Bournemouth a blow out.  It was more of slow and steady outing in which the Gunners did just what they needed to.

Relegation Watch

Down at the bottom, Nottingham Forest had their turn with Sheffield United and got a 3-1 win.  Luton Town managed just one point against Everton and as we noted above, Burnley took it on the chin.  Forest are now up three on Luton Town and five on Burnley.  Big advantage with just two to play.

What If They Had A Match and No One Played?

As we mentioned last week, nothing was at stake in the Brentford - Fulham match and both sides played like it.  This was a 0-0 draw with a total of six shots on goal.  

Tired Legs?

Injuries and a deep run into the Europa Conference League looked to have finally taken a toll on Aston Villa.  They fell at home last week to Olympiacos, then struggled at Brighton on Sunday, losing 1-0.  They managed just two shots and just one on goal.  The sting of that one was probably lessened a touch when Tottenham lost later in the day, meaning they maintained their seven point lead over Spurs.  The Villans looked a bit more lively against Olympiacos in the second leg of that semi-final on Thursday but fell 2-0 in that one too, losing the tie 6-2 in aggregate.  Though they haven't clinched it yet, they do still look like a good bet for fourth and the Champions League spot for next year.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Steve: Is one of the Olympiacos defenders named Marinara?

Dennis: No, it's Retsos.

Now You Raise the Flag?

We have written in the past about the directive to assistant referees to keep the flag down for offside if they feel it is a close call.  Let the play continue and if a goal results, the VAR can always review.  We are generally okay with this policy but feel that there are times when the ARs are too cautious.

Given the directive, we were stunned by two aspects of the offside call against Bayern Munich in stoppage time of their semi-final against Real Madrid.  Bayern had appeared to score the equalizing goal but the play was called offside.  You can see the play here.  First, have you seen a play that better fits the situation where the AR should keep the flag down and let the play run?  Textbook tight call in a crucial situation.  But second, and more importantly, referee Marciniak blew the whistle when he saw the AR's flag go up.  That meant that VAR could not intervene.  ESPN provides a good break down of the issues here.  As noted in the article, we will never know whether he was offside.  Several sources are trotting out pictures that claim one or the other but those are not reliable compared to the semi-automated process used in CL matches.

So Real Madrid advance after scoring two late goals to come from behind.  They will face Dortmund, who moved past PSG 2-0 on aggregate, in the final.

A Closet Full of Ties

Missed another Union match, this one a 2-2 draw away to DC United.  On the one hand, it's another two points dropped.  On the other, they rallied once again from a 0-2 deficit with goals from Bedoya and McGlynn.  The latter's laser strike in the 79th minutes is this week's YouTubeableMoment.

While we were keeping DC United at bay, Charlotte were slipping past us with a 2-0 win over Portland.  The bigger issues may be social media posts by Blake and Martinez.  Blake's comment was "When you are no longer happy it's time."  Kind of vague but when coupled with earlier comments about ownership's lack of ambition, somewhat unsettling.  Martinez made a post that suggested he was less than pleased about being subbed off in the Seattle match.  He took down the post but not before people noticed it.  

Football Manager/Peacock Crossover Event?

Forest Green defender Football Manager
Charlton defender in real life

While rewatching Parks and Rec on Peacock we caught the trailer for a new show Love Undercover.  The show's premise:

In the hot new Peacock Original dating show Love Undercover, five international soccer superstars come to L.A. on a secret quest for the one. The men take on fake, everyday identities and try to win over a group of unsuspecting women who have no knowledge of their outrageous fame and wealth, with finding true love as their #1 goal. So who are these men, really? Take a look!

Sounds like a can't miss hit.  Sure.  We mention it only because one of the five players is Lloyd Jones, who has been an incredibly reliable center back for my Football Manager Forest Green side.  He's in his fifth season with Forest Green, one of the few who's been on the roster all through our journey from League Two to the Premier League.  His ratings are consistently over 7.0.  His career in reality hasn't been quite as successful and I'm not sure I would call him an "international superstar."  He currently plays in League One.  

 

Not Much Time Left

More matches with no implications this weekend and not all the ones that matter are intriguing.  Choose wisely.

Arsenal will be hoping the same Man United that showed up for the 0-4 pasting against Crystal Palace is on the pitch at Old Trafford on Sunday at 11:30.  Man City have a much easier task, taking on Fulham at Craven Cottage.  Note that although Arsenal still lead by a point, Man City have a game in hand.  City have Spurs on Tuesday and West Ham on the final Sunday.  Arsenal will face Everton on the final Sunday.

We are interested in the Aston Villa Liverpool contest on Monday at 3 pm.  A Villa win would clinch 4th place and the CL berth while simultaneously ending Liverpool's title chances.  Newcastle cannot clinch a spot in Europe this weekend but a win at home versus Brighton would be a big help.

The right (or wrong depending on your perspective) set of results could end the relegation battle.  Should Nottingham Forest beat Chelsea they will essentially be safe from relegation given their massive goal differential advantage over Luton Town.  The same holds true for Luton Town - a loss against West Ham will all but confirm their ticket back to the Championship.  As for Burnley, even an unlikely win at Spurs is probably not going to be enough to save them either.

You can skip Bournemouth - Brentford and Wolves - Crystal Palace and Everton - Sheffield United.

Besides the City-Spurs contest, there are two other midweek fixtures involving teams still in the hunt for Europe.  On Wednesday, Newcastle will face Man United at Old Trafford and Chelsea travel to Brighton to face the Seagulls. 

We will miss yet another Union match as they will take on Orlando at 7:30 at Subaru Park.  It's on MLS Season Pass.

Better Than Last Week

Except for the Union, a pretty good set of results for the weekend.

The Magic Elixir

There truly is no better medicine for what ails an EPL team than playing Sheffield United.  Poor sequence of results?  Front line in a scoring drought?  Get yourself a fixture with the Blades and soon you'll be feeling like a million bucks or pounds or euros or whatever currency they use in England.

Isak got two more at home and is just two behind Haaland
in the race for the Golden Boot (Photo:Getty Images)

Newcastle were the latest to benefit from that gift of the schedule makers.  Yeah, they gave up the first goal, still looked a bit listless and the score was 1-1 at halftime.  For some unknown reason, I remained optimistic, thinkin they were going to be just fine.  And indeed they were, scoring four second half goals for an easy 5-1 win.  That gives them 13-1 aggregate score over the two contests with Sheffield United this year.  

Results elsewhere were uniformly helpful.  Man United could only draw 1-1 with Burnley, at home no less, so we gained two points on them.  West Ham surprising grabbed a point against Liverpool but it still means they dropped two on Newcastle.  Chelsea also drew so we put another two points between the Blues and us.  Brighton lost and are now nine points back.  The flip side of that is Bournemouth are now just five points back.  Still, after the loss to Palace, this week put Europe back on the agenda.

Fates Were Sealed

The weekend's results also settled some things, mostly in the relegation battle.  Sheffield United's loss to Newcastle means they are going back down to the Championship Division.  Everyone above Nottingman Forest are now guaranteed to stay up (looking mostly at you Everton).  So the relegation fight is now between Nottingham Forest, Luton Town and Burnley.  

Aston Villa cannot win the title but can also finish no worse than fifth.  Sunday was St. Totteringham's Day, as for the second straight year, Tottenham will finish behind Arsenal.  In other news, Michael B announced he no longer follows the EPL.  Man United will finish no higher than 5th.  Everyone from 13th on down is out of Europe, as we now know that Italy and Germany will get the additional Champions League berths for next year.

[Post publication I watched Chelsea's 2-0 win over Tottenham.  That helped Villa's chances for fourth but did put the Blues just two points behind Newcastle.]

VAR Fainting Couch Is Getting Crowded Again

Oh FFS. In the 95th minute against Aston Villa, Chelsea had looked to score the game winner, completing an improbable comeback from 0-2 down.   You can see the play here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The announcers knew it was a foul.  I think everybody not connected with Chelsea knew it was a foul.  Apparently referee Craig Pawson did not.  VAR Chris Cavanaugh sent Pawson to the monitor, who needed little time to see his error.  No goal and the match ends in a draw.

Cue the outrage.  Check out this from Pochettino:

"Me and you and everyone in the stadium watching the game, they didn't see a foul on the pitch and then VAR changed the decision of the referee. For me that was a normal challenge. The decision was there and that's it," Pochettino told broadcaster TNT following the 2-2 draw.

"For me, it damaged a little bit the Premier League and English [football]. If we want to be the best league in the world it should be protecting the spectacle and the decision ... [it] damaged myself, damaged my team, my players, the fans," he added.

Uh, Poch, your argument is damaged somewhat by the fact that both announcers called it a foul the moment it happened.  In their weekly review of VAR decisions (available here), ESPN sees it as pretty cut and dried too; 

Yet it's hard to see how the VAR could ignore this level of contact, and it should have been given on field by referee Craig Pawson. Even though he had a clear view of the incident, his judgement was still incorrect -- so this isn't re-refereeing the game.

Chelsea would not have been in that situation in the first place had they taken advantage of their scoring opportunities (looking at you Nicholas Jackson).  For the year, Chelsea have the 5th highest negative differential between actual goals and xG.  Work on finishing not whining.

Nottingham Forest Complain Again

After their 0-2 loss at home to Man City, Forest management noted that they had warned PGMOL, that the fourth official assigned to the match - Tom Bramall - had once visited Manchester and said "he had a real good time."  In comments after the match on X, Forest officials said "we warned you this was a problem", noting the Bramall had caused Forest striker Chris Wood to miss two clear cut scoring chances. 

Some or all of the above may not be true.

Union No Longer Unbeaten

So apparently my not watching the Union has nothing to do with their performance.  I missed both Saturday and Tuesday and they lost both.  Saturday was a 1-2 loss to Real Salt Lake in which the U surrendered the winning goal in the 89th minute.  On Tuesday, they fell behind Seattle 0-3 in the first half.  They rallied with two in the second half but could not get the equalizer.  

 So now the U sit seventh, although they do have a game in hand.  

Limited Viewing

Going to be a tough weekend as I will be in Lewisburg for a track team reunion Thursday through Saturday, then recording a concert in Aston on Sunday. Hoping I can get to see one or two matches on replay after everybody's gone to bed.

Not that the fixtures are all that enticing but there is some good stuff.  Liverpool vs Tottenham at 11:30 on Sunday looks to be the best.  Nottingham Forest get to play Sheffield United, a great chance for three points; that's Saturday at 10 am on USA.  Chelsea -West Ham at 9 on Sunday has implications for the European spots.

The title contenders have what look like winnable matches - Arsenal host Bournemouth (7:30 Saturday on USA) and Man City have Wolves at home (the NBC feature match at 12:30 on Saturday).

Newcastle have a great chance to solidify their hopes for Europe as they play Burnley (10 am Saturday on Peacock).  Similarly, Aston Villa can tighten their hold on 4th as they travel to face Brighton on Sunday at 9.

The weekend is bookended with a Friday match between Luton and Everton and a Monday contest between Crystal Palace and Man United.  In the one match with no implications, Brentford play Fulham at 10 am Saturday.

Champions League semi-final second legs are mid-week with all to play for.  PSG host Dortmund on Tuesday, trailing 0-1.  Bayern are at Real Madrid on Wednesday with the score all even at 2-2.  Aston Villa, after a poor effort on Thursday against Olympiacos, are looking at 4-2 deficit for the second leg of that Europa Conference League semi. 

The Union have an early six-pointer against 8th place DC United.  That's at 7:30 Saturday on "free" Apple.

Sigh, all this soccer but limited opportunities to watch.