Getting A Handle On Handling

Some excellent viewing.  Some sketchy refereeing.  Expect some revised language on what constitutes handling.

Woke Up, It Was Not A Chelsea Morning (apologies to Joni Mitchell)

Lewis Miley is about to deliver a precise pass in the box to
Alexander Isak (yeah, the guy surrounded by 5 Chelsea defenders)

I was not looking forward to the Newcastle match with Chelsea given our depleted squad but Dennis counseled optimism - "they're not very good."  Sure enough, he was right.  An early goal from Isak on a pass by a different teenager named Lewis (17-year-old Miley as opposed to 19-year-old Hall) got things moving in the right direction.  Though Chelsea levelled fairly quickly, the Magpies looked solid through  a 1-1 first half.  Then it got better.  They were on the front foot from the second half whistle and got goals in quick succession from Lascelles and Joelinton.  A second yellow for Reece James at 73 minutes meant this one was over.  The stats say the 4-1 final overstates the margin but it sure looked like the right score watching.

Even with the injuries, Newcastle still put out a decent line up.  The replacements have come up big too.  Lascelles has been solid for Botman.  Hall and Livramento have contributed defensively and now Miley looks like he can help in the middle.  Still going to be short probably through January so we hope these guys keep it up.

It's Not A Bug, It's A Feature

The announcers for the Aston Villa - Tottenham match were seemingly shocked that several Spurs' goals were called back for offside, as if this was a random coincidence.  Uh, no.  Villa employ a well-executed offside trap. Next time you watch Villa, check out how well-drilled that back line is.  

I'm pleased to say this turned out to be an excellent contest and even more pleased for the confirmation that my suspicions that Villa were in no way overmatched, contrary to what Opta had us thinking.  Spurs did have a slight statistical edge and a draw probably would have been a fair result here.

Pantomime Villan: This challenge by Cash had Spurs
fans seeing red and booing him for the whole match

A talking point was the challenge Matty Cash made on Bentancur in the first half (see left).  Unfortunately, Bentancur had to leave the pitch a few minutes after the tackle; the worse news was that Bentancur, who was just coming back from knee injury, sustained an ankle injury and will be out for over two months.  It was a reckless challenge and Cash was shown a yellow.  Every time he touched the ball after that, Spurs fans booed him.  Postgame social media was full of calls for Cash to be retroactively suspended.  I understand the sentiment but fouls, cards and suspensions aren't based on injuries, they're based on severity of the infraction.

Other Pleasant Surprises

The Man City - Liverpool contest turned out to be a good watch rather than a blowout for the home team.  City were the better side but Liverpool hung tough all game and were rewarded with a late goal from Alexander-Arnold to grab a 1-1 draw. 

As we hoped, Brentford were solid at home and made their contest with Arsenal a contest.   Only an 89th minute goal from Kai Havertz kept the Bees from walking away with a draw.  With the City - Liverpool draw, the Gunners' win moves them to the top of the table.

Okay, Everton - Man United wasn't close but it did have this week's YouTubeableMoment, a stunning bicycle kick by Alejandro Garnacho.  Hmm, that may partly explain why the final was 3-0 favor Man United but the xG was 2.38 - 1.92 for the Toffees.  The xG for Garnacho's shot? 0.03!

The matchweek concluded with a fun 3-2 win for Fulham over Wolves.  Well, fun if you're a Cottager fan.  Wolves came back twice but were undone by a penalty in stoppage time.  It was the correct call (at least IMHO) but Wolves manager Gary O'Neil must feel snakebit by now as this was the third late PK to cost them a draw.

We'll Always Have Paris

Newcastle and their fans were in Paris for a key Champions League clash against PSG.  On Monday night, fans were attacked by PSG Ultras.  Details are here; looks like there were no serious injuries.  As for the match, Newcastle got a first half goal from Isak, then spent most of the rest of the match pakring the bus.  They were minutes away from pulling off an amazing upset until a questionable handling call gave PSG a PK which they converted for a 1-1 draw.

Before launching into a rant about how the handling call against Livramento was one of the worst VAR decisions this year, I will note that call was not why Newcastle could only manage a 1-1 draw.  No, the issue was that the ball spent about 90% of its time in the second half in Newcastle's final third, much of it in the penalty area.  The stats were incredibly lopsided; possession was 73/27, shots 31/5, shots on target 7/2 and xG 4.47/1.48.  With no bench, they had exhausted defenders on the pitch who could only hack the ball away for the last 20 minutes or so of the match.  Something bad was bound to happen. Only PSG's terrible shooting kept the score at 1-0 going into stoppage time.

As for the play, you can see it here.  Referee Szymon Marciniak did not signal for a handball.  The VAR directed him to the monitor, at which point he changed his mind.  What I thought was the relevant section of the law says it is handling if:

• touches the ball with their hand/arm when it has made their body unnaturally bigger. A player is considered to have made their body unnaturally bigger when the position of their hand/arm is not a consequence of, or justifiable by, the player’s body movement for that specific situation. By having their hand/arm in such a position, the player takes a risk of their hand/arm being hit by the ball and being penalised

Does anybody disagree that Livramento's arm is exactly where you would expect it to be for a player who is running?  Livramento's elbow isn't even that far away from this body, though his forearm is.  A ridiculous call for me, especially given the on-field ruling was no penalty.  We'll add inconsistency to the list of charges as well.  A mere 20 minutes earlier in the match, the ball hit Lewis Miley in the arm in the box; Marciniak did not call that one either and the VAR was satisified that this was not handling and did not direct Marciniak to the monitor.  I didn't think that was a foul either but his arm was arguably in a more unnatural position that Livramento's was.  

That the VAR official was dropped from his next game suggests that UEFA officials agree that this was a bad call.   He was also criticized for not offering enough different replay angles to the referee.  As far as I can tell, Marciniak was not also "stood down" because he did not have another Champions League match this week. Check out the contrasting responses to the UEFA "apology" from Dennis and Steve.  I would note that Paramount might want to consider dropping their supposed referee expert Christina Unkel for a game or two as well.  Here was her explanation as to why it was a penalty:

“What’s getting everyone lost because it’s in the law is the word ‘natural,’" Unkel explains. "This is a natural running motion, however the interpretation and application is trying to get less subjective and more objective, which is coming out with these harsh decisions that people in the football community do not like. It’s not on the referees, they are required to apply it like this at this point.”

Excuse me but WTF is she saying?  Have referees been instructed to ignore the "natural position" exemption written in the law?  UEFA's action suggests no.  

The draw does keep open a change for Newcastle to advance; the Magpies must be AC Milan while PSG has to lose to Dortmund.  Neither result is impossible but they are long odds.

Deja Vu All Over Again

Well, actually reverse deja vu.  Bayern and Copenagen were level at 0-0 in second half stoppage time in their Champions League match. A ball bounced up and hit a Copenhagen defender's arm and the referee signalled for a penalty.  You can see the play here.  As you'll note, the VAR sent the referee to the monitor, where she reversed herself and signalled no penalty.  I think they got this one right, even if it was closer to a penalty than the Newcastle play.  Copenhagen definitely benefited from the shit storm generated by the Livramento handball.  They hung on for the 0-0 away draw and slip into second place in the group.  This was not good news for Man United, who played Galatasaray to an exciting and bizarre 3-3 draw.  They now have to win against Bayern while hoping that Copenhagen and Galatasaray play to a draw in the final group stage matches in two weeks.

Man City and Arsenal are through to the knock out phase of the Champions League.  Brighton and Liverpool will advance out of the group stage of Europa League, and Aston Villa will move onto the knock out phase of Europa Conference League.

There Are No Replays in Jet Landings

Speaking of VAR, did you see that Howard Webb has sought the help of British Airways pilots to improve the communication process between the VARs and the center referees.  Details are here.  Actually, I've heard of worse ideas.  When was the last time you had a landing called back for offside?

Ending With A Whimper

How much parallax error?

The Union's conference semi-final with Cincinnati Saturday night played out largely as we expected it would.  Chippy but maybe not as bad as we feared; 31 fouls and four yellow cards.  Maybe a missed red card late?  There were some shots on goal.  Not surprisingly the match dragged into second half stoppage time 0-0.  On a free kick in the 94th minute, the U's marking went to the sleep and Mosquera put away the game winner.  Except wait, there may have been offside on the header to Mosquera.  The still picture sure makes it look like it is offside.  But, the camera angle is biased towards an offside call and we all know about parallax error at this point.  MLS doesn't use lines like EPL and Apple doesn't deploy as many cameras for their broadcasts as they do for EPL matches so there was no clear and obvious picture to overturn the call.  I have no issue with the call but that the MLS hasn't put the resources into a better process.  

Definitely an up-and-down season for the Union.  There were moments that felt like last year but they were never sustained.  Clearly there will be some changes next year.  Wagner is almost certainly gone.  Carranza may not be back.  Same with Mbaizo.  What is Bedoya's future?  Plenty to ponder this winter.

Two Matchweeks In One

EPL fits two match weeks in six days and there are even some interesting fixtures.  Among our recommendations:

Burnley vs Sheffield United - Saturday 10 am on USA - 20th place takes on 18th in an early relegation contest

Newcastle vs Man United - Saturday 3 pm on USA (a special late Saturday match!) - two teams close in the standings (7th and 6th); Newcastle won with their second team in Carabao Cup a few weeks ago and that might have Man United primed for this one.  This is Opta's closest match of the weekend with the Magpies the slightest of favorites at 37/29/34.

Man City vs Spurs - Sunday at 11:30 on Peacock (yep, they are figuring out which fixtures to put behind the paywall) - Yeah, Spurs have lost three in a row and Opta doesn't think much of their chances here.  But, City are coming off two draws so we keep our hopes up

Aston Villa vs Man City - Wednesday at 3:15, TV not known yet - Villa (4th heading into the weekend) are playing attractive football so we have modest hopes for a good one

Man United vs Chelsea - Wednesday at 3:15, TV not known yet - Chelsea's recent form almost made me not list this one but you never know

Happy to see that there is no Saturday match at 7:30.  The NBC feature match at 12:30 on Saturday between Nottingham Forest and Everton may not jump out you but it does figure to be quite competitive.  You have four choices at 9 am on Sunday.  For the neutral we recommend the TV choice, Chelsea - Brighton.  Here we will be watching Bournemouth - Aston Villa.  

Only two choices on Tuesday - Wolves vs Burnley or Luton Town vs Arsenal.  Oh well.  For Thursday we will go with Newcastles at Everton but neutrals could easily be persuaded to take in the London derby between Spurs and West Ham.  

With matches against Wolves and Luton Town, Arsenal have every prospect of staying a top the table through the week.  Liverpool's week doesn't look all that tough either with away matches at Fulham and Sheffield United.  

If They Have MLS Conference Finals and Nobody Watches Does It Make A Sound?

I don't mean that because the Union are out.  I would gladly watch both Cincinnati - Columbus and LAFC - Houston.  There's every reason to believe they could be interesting matches.  However, they are both behind the MLS Season (Thou Shalt Not) Pass paywall so we won't get to see them.  

I have no idea of the bigger picture but certainly for me the MLS has done serious damage to its brand between the TV deal, the mid-season league play interruption and the playoff format and scheduling.  It's late so I'll skip the rant for another day.

Plenty of EPL to keep us occupied.

Back to Business

As Garrison Keillor used to say, it's been a quiet week in Lake Wobegon. Other than a few European Championship qualifiers and refereeing some CHYSC games, we didn't do much soccer related stuff.  A good break but time to get back to the serious business at hand.  Between Saturday 11/25 and Tuesday 1/2, there will be just seven days without English football. 

What Happened To My Points?  They Were Right Here A Minute Ago?

We have chronicled Everton's struggle to break free of the gravititational pull of the relegation zone.  At last look they had done a good job to put nine points between them and 18th place.  Last Friday they were hit with the largest penalty in EPL history - a 10 point deduction - for violating profit and sustainability rules.  The details are here.  The deduction dropped them from 14th down to 19th place, level on points with last place Burnley.  Note that Everton have appealed so it's not clear that this is over.

There doesn't seem to be much dispute over whether there was a violation but there is disagreement over how big the overspending was and what the appropriate sanction is.  That discussion gets interesting real fast when you compare Everton's treatment to that of Man City.  I'll admit my first reaction was Man City gets away with it while Everton are hammered.  As the article points out, there really are some important differences between the two cases.  However, my guess is that after reading about the differences you'll still conclude that the big guys got away with it and the little guys got nailed.  Everton admitted their mistake, though they disagree as to the severity of the violation.  City didn't admit to anything, lied about what they did and escaped punishment because an appeals body felt that the EPL didn't prove their case or that some of the violations were time limited by UEFA rules.  That does not bode well for Everton's appeal as some level of violation has already been admitted to and the UEFA time limitations do not apply here.

I heartily recommend a full read of the article as it goes into some thorny sub-issues, like what about the teams that Everton beat out for relegation the last two years?  Don't they have a case for damages now?

'Tis the Season

Baby face Lewis Hall could be a
big factor in how Newcastle survive injuries

Thanksgiving to New Years Day is a congested time for English football.  The Premier League likes to cram in extra games around Christmas so Newcastle have eight EPL contests between now and January 1.  They also have the last two group stage matches for Champions League.  Throw in the Carabao Cup quarter final and you get 11 matches in 38 days.  The EPL schedule includes fixtures against Chelsea, Man United, Tottenham and Liverpool.  The best part is that this comes at a time when Newcastle have a league high 15 players out.  Almiron and Isak might make it back by Saturday.  Botman might be back by 12/12 while Wilson and Anderson could return as soon as 12/26.  Lewis Hall, the 1219 year -old who has done an admirable job filling in at left back we got on loan from Chelsea, is ineligible to play this Saturday against his parent club.  At least Guimaraes will be back from suspension.   

This could some tough viewing for a while.

MLS (Mighty Lame Scheduling)

So the MLS (remember them, 18 teams make the playoffs, best of three first round playoffs with shootouts?) will return for the conference semi-finals on Saturday and Sunday.  The average break for the teams between their last first round match and this weekend's fixtures is 16.6 days.  Really helpful for building interest in the games.  Plus they are all on MLS Season Pass ( well, one, Houston - Sporting KC, is also on FS1.

So maybe the next three weekends will be action packed and they'll get away with this.  But was this really necessary?  I know the international break was a given.  Except it was known a long time ago; my 2020 edition of Football Manager had it.  They could have done one of two things.  Probably very difficult to do but they could have worked the schedule out to be done on 11/12 before the break.  Or, more reasonably, they could have gotten through the conference finals by 11/12, then had a two-week break like they do for the Super Bowl, then played the final.  

I will be interested to hear how they do on the ratings given that all but one match will be behind a pay wall.  Briefly considered a short-term subscription but decided against it.  I will listen to the U on 97.5 this weekend and then see what pickins we get for the conference final and MLS Cup Final.  Would they really have the final behind a paywall?

Oh yeah, the Union play Cincinnati away at 8 pm on Saturday night.  They are clearly underdogs here, their odds further reduced by the absences of Glesnes and Wagner.  Carranza might actually be available (as The Inquirer's Tannenwald pointed out, possibly the only good thing about the long layoff).  FCC will be missing key defender Miazga due to suspension for yellow card accumulation in the playoffs so there is that.  A Union win would look something like we're under the gun the whole night, Blake makes some spectacular saves and we get a set piece goal or win on PKs.  Stranger things have happened.

Turkey to Peacock

Three top ten clashes in the EPL this weekend but the most interesting match might be a 16 vs 18 matchup.  NBC/USA looks to be fine-tuning their strategy to put the better matches on Peacock.

We start early (7:30) on Saturday with what on paper should be the top match of the weekend -  1st place Man City vs 2nd place Liverpool.  Except the analysts don't see this as a close match.  Opta has it 52/26/22 favor City; this is by far the widest spread (30 points) for any match this weekend.  Betting odds also heavily favor Man City.  Is the gap between first and second really this big?  Home field advantage is clearly playing into this but the spread still seems wide.  This one is on Peacock, which means early to rise as you can't DVR it.

The 10 am slot is crowded with five contests.  The TV match is arguably the least interesting of the bunch - Nottingham Forest hosting Brighton.  Our choice is easy as we will be going with Newcastle - Chelsea (arguably best game on Peacock, not USA).  I am astonished at the Opta numbers which slightly favor the Magpies 37/29/34; with Newcastle's injury list I expected Chelsea to be a solid favorite here.  They're banged up a bit too but won't be missing as many key players.  I'll take a draw in a heartbeat.  

Two other choices better than the TV game are Sheffield United - Bournemouth or Luton Town - Crystal Palace.  Both look real close on paper.  Bournemouth, coming off the win over Newcastle, could make a further jump away from the relegation zone.  Last choice would be Burnley - West Ham.

The feature TV game at 12:30 (USA not NBC) doesn't look all that great though it is a London Derby between Brentford and Arsenal.  Maybe in their friendly environs, the Bees will make a contest of it.

I'm looking forward to Sunday's 9 am match between Spurs and Aston Villa (USA).  I had fancied the Villans as a serious challenger here but Opta, at 48/27/25, doesn't think so.  Maybe that's just home field advantage again but I would have expected this to be closer.  At 11 am, also on USA, we have Everton - Man United.  Sure United have been piling up the points but they've been doing so with slim victories over mediocre opposition; still, this is a tough fixture for the Toffees to start digging out from the point deduction.  Monday's 3 pm match on USA - Fulham vs Wolves - is probably worth a look; what else you going to do late on a Monday afternoon.

Don't forget the European competitions have fixtures Tuesday - Thursday.  Newcastle are at PSG Tuesday at 3 pm; a loss there will mean they can't advance to the knockout round and even a draw leaves them in a desperate spot.  Arsenal and Man City are looking pretty good for advancement while Man United are fourth in their group but still in the hunt.  Their match versus Galatasaray (12:30 Wednesday) is pretty much a must win as they have to face Bayern in their last group stage fixture.

In Europa Conference League, Aston Villa can clinch advancement to the knockout stage with a win or draw versus Legia Warszawa (3 pm on Thursday).  In Europa League, Liverpool and West Ham have already locked up spots in the knockout rounds; Brighton could grab a spot as well with a win on Thursday versus AEK Athens.

Not going to be a lot of days off between now and January 2.  Best bet is to schedule meetings for Mondays and Fridays as there are no open Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays until 2024.

Is There A Doctor In The House?

A special Tuesday edition of BFS given the international break and we'll be back on Black Friday.

Dominic Solanke beats Pope for a second time. 
Photograph: Graham Hunt/ProSports/Shutterstock

Newcastle are certainly not the only team dealing with injuries and absences.  However, according
to this table, they do have the most of any EPL side, by some margin.  They looked tired and overmatched in a 2-0 loss to 17th place Bournemouth.  The stats match what I saw - shots were 19/8, shots on target 10/5 and xG 2.53/.66.  And, they added Almiron to the injury list; I didn't see a timeframe for his return.  Looking at the expected return dates provided in that table, we could be looking at a thin squad through the end of the year.

Better Weather Elsewhere

The skies were clearer, at least metaphorically, in Birmingham as Aston Villa did a thorough job on Fulham.  The first half was about as close to a perfect half for the Villans as they built a 2-0 lead.  Sure, the first was an OG by Robinson but deserved based on the pressure.  The second was a laser from McGinn, who displayed his characteristic high energy football despite by persistent fouling by different Fulham players.  The third goal was a three-man effort started by a defensive header from Watkins followed by some back and forth work from Bailey and McGinn ending with a pass from Bailey to Watkins for the finish.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment; check out the ground covered by Watkins between the header inside the Villa six to the finish inside the Fulham six.  Apparently the Nottingham Forest result was a hiccup.

A Decent Game of Football

We hope John Champion was pleased that he got to cover the 4-4 draw between Chelsea and Man City.  Certainly not perfection but most entertaining.  Each side rallied from deficits - City once and Chelsea three times, the last coming in stoppage.  The best part was how we had such low expectations for what used to be a feature match and got this see-saw affair instead.  Watching the match I would say Chelsea was the side that was always battling to keep up but the stats say it was basically even.  

The Ghost of Conte?

Until Saturday, we would have said that even though Tottenham weren't always dominant, they never looked timid.  Even down two players to Chelsea, they attacked.  Not this time.  Wolves at Molineux is no picnic but Spurs just looked tepid in a 2-1 loss.   A goal just three minutes in augured well except that was it.  They kept Wolves at bay so to speak but never really had control of the match.  They paid dearly when Wolves scored not once, but twice in stoppage time.  Like Newcastle, Spurs have a long list of injuries - notably van de Ven and Maddison (both until January) - so that certainly didn't help.  Spurs fans will hope this was just a glitch.  

Doing Better at Identifying the Best Option

Happy to say that for the second straight week, we recommended the best of the bunch for the 10 am slot.  And again, we didn't get to watch it because of refereeing.  Those who went with Crystal Palace - Everton were rewarded with an excellent back and forth contest that wasn't decided until late.  Palace rallied from one-goal deficits twice only to be sunk by a goal from Idrissa Gueye in the 86th minute.  The Toffees have seven points in the last three games and after a poor start are eight points clear of the drop zone.

Two more red cards and two more results for the red carded sides.  Arsenal were already up 3-1 on Burnley when Vieira saw straight red in the 83rd minute and the score didn't change.  Brighton were up 1-0 when Dahoud also got a straight red in teh 69th minute.  The Seagulls were not so fortunate, although they did hang on for a 1-1 draw.  Totals for the year are 8-5-11.

Erik ten Hang In There saw his Man United team squeak by another less than difficult opponent, shading 18th place Luton Town 1-0.  They are getting results, at least in the EPL, but they are certainly not impressing anybody right now.  

The score line shows 3-0 Liverpool over Brentford but xG was just 1.61-1.50.  Since I didn't see it, I don't know who was lucky or unlucky or who had great shooting/great goalkeeping.  Any which way it's three for Liverpool and they are second in the table.  With a 3-2 final and a late deciding goal, West Ham - Nottingham Forest was probably a fun watch.  Refereeing is done for the year so maybe I'll see some of these games going forward.

We Saw What You Did There, Raheem

I can't find video but in the dying moments of Chelsea - Man City, Sterling felt that he was fouled in getting dispossessed.  He thrashed a bit.  Then he realized that a) Man City were on the counter for perhaps a winning goal in the final seconds and b) Anthony Taylor had no intention of calling a foul or stopping play.  So naturally he started writhing histronically.  I mean even Neymar would have been embarrassed.  

Dodging the Bullet

The first round of the MLS playoffs are done and seven of eight top seeds are through, with only St. Louis failing to make it through.  That's an 88% success rate.  BFS Ultra Guy Jeff H sent us this article from Forbes that said the first round average for 2019-2022 was 77%.  The problem is that this is not an apples to apples comparison.  In those years the top seed got a bye so there were only three match ups in each conference - 2-7, 3-6 and 4-5.  With this new format they added a 1-8 game to the mix so you would expect the percentage to be higher. 

However, there are still some comparisons that can be made, recognizing that we're dealing with small numbers here.  In 2023, the 2-7, 3-6 and 4-5 seeds were 6-0.  Between 2019-2022, they were 19-5.  For this limited data set, the three-game format got more of the top seeds through.  The cost was a number one seed.  

I'm sticking with the opinion that the format so cheapens the regular season as to render it close to meaningless.  Undoubtedly, its supporters will point out there were fewer upsets and lots of exciting football.  Somebody made money too I'm sure.

Cup action will resume after Thanksgiving.

$peaking of Bad Ideas

Fake money litters the pitch 

During their Champions League match with Newcastle, Dortmund fans were throwing fake money and gold coins on the pitch. One might have assumed this was directed at the PIF, money bag owners of Newcastle but one would be wrong.  They are protesting upcoming changes to the Champions League format.  The new format, explained in this article, looks worse than the MLS playoffs.  Instead of eight groups of four, there will be one table of 36 teams.  But, there will still be four groups of nine inside that huge table and each team would play two teams from each of the four pots.  First through eight go to the knockout round while teams 9-24 do a one-game playoff  (9-24, 10-23, etc.) to determine the other eight teams.

So eight instead of six group stage games to fit into the schedule, an extra playoff game for teams that finish 9-24.  Presumably the pots will have some basis in strength but it still seems like there could be massive differences in difficulty of schedule.  Just can't help themselves.  

"A scorpion asks a frog to carry him over a river. The frog is afraid of being stung, but the scorpion argues that if it did so, both would sink and the scorpion would drown. The frog then agrees, but midway across the river the scorpion does indeed sting the frog, dooming them both. When asked why, the scorpion points out that this is its nature."

Spot On

BFS Artistic Director Laura O sends us this compilation of spot-on imitations.  It's a tie (draw?) for me between the first Haaland impression or the Maguire folly.  

Enjoy your Thanksgiving 

Get Off the Fainting Couch

Players whining.  Managers ranting.  Announcers complaining.  So much nonsense about refereeing for one weekend.  VAR did this.  VAR didn't do that.  What's a blogger to do?  By Monday evening, the announcer and pundits were claiming that COVID started in the VAR facilities at Stockley Park.  I kid but barely.  We'll try to unpack it with a minimum of ranting from me but no guarantees.

Magpies Undo Arsenal

The goal that launched a thousand rants
IMAGO/Sportimage/Nigel Roddis

The final was 1-0 Newcastle but you may have missed that in all the commotion.  This was by no means a pretty game to watch.  No flow, lots of hard challenges, three total shots on goal.  Havertz made an "orange" card challenge on Longstaff and three Newcastle players got yellows for dissent on the play.  Guimaraes probably should have been sent off for an arm to the head of Jorginho.  Chippy all day.

And then there was the goal.  You can see it here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  It's a long one because the VAR review took four minutes.  During that review they checked whether the ball had crossed the end line, whether Joelinton had fouled Gabriel and whether Gordon was offside.  The answers were eventually no, maybe but it's not an obvious error and there's no way we can know. So under the rules of the game, the goal stood and the final was 1-0.

The win was an unexpected three points but it came with some negatives.  Dan Burn and Jacob Murphy picked up injuries to add to the long list already out.  And there is Guimaraes's increasingly concerning behavior.  He did pick up his 5th yellow (ironically on a play where he arguably did little or nothing wrong) and will serve a one-game suspension.  But the bigger issue is stuff like the arm to the head of Jorginho.  He puts the team in jeopardy with actions like that and Newcastle were lucky not to have spent a big part of that game a man down.  

Afterwards, Mikel Arteta was surprisingly gracious in his comments about the referees:

At some point as well we need to give support and understand that mistakes happen. We’ve made mistakes as well and if the pressure is so much then it’s very difficult to manage."

Oh wait, that was Arteta after VAR mix-up in the Liverpool - Tottenham match a few weeks ago.  Arteta's comments after Saturday's match were:

Praising my players for the way we played, we didn't deserve to lose the match playing in their ground and we lose because of clear and obvious decisions. It is embarrassing, it is a disgrace, that's what it is, a disgrace.

Conclusive proof that ball was out? Only if you don't
know the rule about the ball being completely over the line...
and parallax error (see photo below right)

Of course, in his rant he did not specifically point out what was wrong with the decisions.  Was the ball out?  The picture we saw on TV did show green space between the ball and the line but as we all know, the ball has to be completely over line to be out so that tells us nothing.  Also, the angle of the picture was not straight down the line.  A picture found later showed that the ball was in fact in the whole time.  

Close, but not out.  In other words, they got it right.

As for the offside, there was no video  - none - to show conclusively whether Gordon was off.  Maybe he was, maybe he wasn't.  But declaring it was obvious that he was offside is putting you in close company with 2020 election deniers.  As to the foul, that's highly subjective.  The fact that many pundits argued that it wasn't sugguests there was no clear and obvious error.

Also try this thought experiment.  Imagine that this was Arsenal's goal to level the match at 1-1 and it was ruled out by VAR for any of the reasons Arteta claimed were obvious. Cue the exploding head.

Nice to see many publications call Arteta out on his rant.  I liked this one from ESPN: 

It was a remarkable reaction and completely removed from the reality of the situation. You could understand Liverpool's anger when Luiz Diaz's goal wasn't allowed against Tottenham, but this isn't remotely close to that. It's a series of situations that are fully explainable. There's no smoking gun over a VAR error. Arsenal's reaction was over the top and unnecessary, creating added pressure when unwarranted.

The five-person panel that reviews these things voted 4-1 in favor of Atwell's decision not to change his on field calls on the goal.  Note however that the panel voted unaminously that Havertz should have been shown red for his challenge on Longstaff and 3-2 that Guimaraes should have gotten a red card for his elbow on Jorginho.  Details can be had here.  For the record, I was okay with Havertz getting yellow and the Newcastle players getting yellows too.  Didn't see much physical gesturing but if Atwell told them enough and they kept yapping, the yellows are justified.  I was leaning towards a red for Guimaraes.  I feel like VAR can be a big help on these off the ball, behind the play incidents and I'd be fine if referees were really tough on those calls.  Players do respond to how the games are officiated (how often have you seen a player wave the imaginary yellow card lately?) so if they get the message that there's a crackdown on this type of shithousery, we might see less of it.

Not Always Good To Be King

Four of the five top sides dropped points over the weekend, with only Man City getting a win (6-1 over Bournemouth - yawn).  We already discussed Arsenal.  On Sunday Aston Villa put up a real clunker against Nottingham Forest, falling 2-0 on the road.  I remember not being too worried when the Villans gave up a goal at five minutes but becoming increasingly concerned as the match dragged on.  A second goal to start the second half didn't help.  Reviewing my conversation with Dennis during the match, the single word text "Embarrassing" from him likely says it best.  

Then we had Liverpool at Kenilworth Road, the home of Luton Town.  The announcer said it had "the feel of a 3rd Round FA Cup in January."  Translating that, he's saying we've got a lower tier team facing one of the top teams and the underdog home fans are cheering wildly like they have a chance.  In other words, he was basically insulting Luton Town.  They almost had the last laugh and definitely got the next-to-last chuckle.  After holding Liverpool scoreless for most of the match, Luton Town grabbed a 1-0 lead in the 80th minute.  They were denied the win by a Luis Diaz goal in the 5th of eight stoppage time minutes.  Still the point against Liverpool had to be satisfying

Tottenham's run as the last undefeated side ended on Monday.  Kulusevski got Spurs up quickly but things went south pretty much after that.  This was curious stuff no doubt.  Udogie got a yellow for an "orange" card challenge on Sterling.  Chelsea had a goal ruled out only to have it replaced with a penalty kick for a straight red on Romero in the box.  That could have been his second red as earlier he had petulantly kicked out at Colwill but somehow escaped sanction.  That made it hard to have much sympathy as to whether this challenge was red or not.  

So Chelsea level the match with the PK and now have a man advantage.  Which they proceeded to do not much with.  Spurs tried to make it even easier as Udogie (whoa doggie?) got his second yellow at 55 minutes.  Still no response from Chelsea.  Finally in the 75th minute, Nicholas Jackson at last got one of his shots on target and put the Blues up.  Amazingly the Spurs responded and looked to have leveled it with Dier's goal a few minutes later but that was ruled offside.  Chelsea added two in stoppage time to post a 4-1 final that is completely flattering to them.  Other fun items for Spurs were that Van de Ver and Maddison both had to leave with injuries.

Oh, and we had John Champion whining for most of the game about VAR, noting at one point "all we've come for is a decent game of football."  His concluding remarks referenced something like "a VAR-scarred match."  I've always liked Champion but not if he's going to whine like this.  You know that without VAR, Champion would be the first to highlight the controversial nature of a play if there was a hint of uncertainty.  You're talking out of both sides of your mouth John.  As Dennis put it "they act like they want to go back to the days when you could get away with anything."  

That said, I wouldn't mind if the ARs were told that they can raise the flag right away if there's space between the attacker and the last defender.  Dennis is willing to go with half a yard as being far enough offside.  The point is, these guys are pretty good - how often do you see false positives? - so the definition of what's close can probably be narrowed.

The Manager Who Cried Wolves

If there's anybody who maybe has some legitimate bones to pick with the refereeing this year, it's Wolves manager Gary O' Neil.  Thus far, three referees who made controversial decisions in Wolves' matches have been "dropped" from Premier League assignments the following week.  In week 1 Simon Hooper didn't call a PK against Man United and refereed a Championship Division game the following week.  In week 6 Josh Smith made a questionable handling call in favor of Luton Town and found himself doing lower level games since.  Two weeks ago we noted that Anthony Taylor's call in the box on Hwang might have been soft.  Howard Webb thought so and gave Taylor a week in the Championship Division.

It was deja vu all over again on Saturday as Robert Jones (with no apparent dissent from VAR Chris Kavanagh) decided to award Sheffield United a PK for this play in the 10th minute of stoppage time.  That looks softer than the foul called on Hwang last week.  The PK was converted and Sheffield United got all three points with a 2-1 win.  As of publication, Jones is set to be the 4th official for West Ham - Nottingham Forest while Kavanagh will be in the center for Bournemouth - Newcastle.  

Around the League

Man United's last second 1-0 win over Fulham probably didn't do a whole lot for ten Hag's long term prospects.  On the other hand, a 0-0 draw would have been worse.  Everton got another point with a 1-1 draw at home to Brighton.  Burnley's struggles continue as they dropped another one, 0-2 this time to Crystal Palace.  The match to watch was probably Brentford's see-saw 3-2 win over West Ham.  

After 11 weeks, Man City has worked their way back to the top, with Tottenham, Liverpool and Arsenal close behind.  The biggest gap right now is the five point spread between 16th and 17th.  Everton have slowly forged this gap, leaving Luton Town, Bournemouth, Burnley and Sheffield United all tightly packed in the bottom four spots.

Europe Stuff

Newcastle weren't awful in a 2-0 loss to Dortmund away.  Well, not in the second half anyway.  After a moribund first half, they did manage a few scoring chances after the break.  The starting XI included Livramento, a fullback, as right forward, such is the depth of injuries right now.  AC Milan's win over PSG does mean the group is still up for grabs but with a depleted squad, I"m not seeing Newcastle take advantage of that.  

Yeah I know it's a freeze frame but that's not a good look

Oh look, there's another manager saying the officiating cost his team the match.  Erik ten Hag felt that it wasn't a red card on Rashford, there was offside on one of the Copenhagen goals and the handling call on Maguire was incorrect.  Not going to get much sympathy from me on the red card.  The offside question was not about whether the player was in an offside position but whether he was screening Onana; I thought it was a possibility but apparently VAR did not.  On the handling call, it was consistent with what we've seen all year - get your arms up and extended at shoulder level or higher and there's a good chance they'll call it.  

More Ugly

The pitch at our "favorite" venue - Gillette Stadium - was not looking as white as the last time the Union played there and you had to look real hard to see the NFL lines.  You also had to look hard for some attractive football.  The U were clearly caught on the back foot for the opening 20 minutes or so but then managed to make things a bit more even.  They got a big break when Kaye stomped on Gazdag's chest to earn himself a red card just before half time.  Didn't seem to give the U much of an advantage and it felt like New England were as, or even more, likely to score.  A set piece late from McGlynn to Donovan in the 79th minute broke the deadlock.  You can see that goal here.  That would be it for the scoring.

McGlynn: Creating chances

Not the greatest of games but when you break some things down there were some positives.  They were without Glesnes (injury), Carranza (injury) and Wagner (three game suspension for racial slur at Bobby Wood in the first game) but got solid performances from Lowe, Sullivan and Harriel to cover.  And Jack McGlynn played one of his best matches this season.  

And so it's on to the conference semi-final against Cincinnati sometime after Thanksgiving?  WTF?  MLS goofball playoffs are only part of the problem; there's an international break that takes the weekend of 11/18-19 off the table.

A Break?

Well, sort of.  There's a full slate of EPL matches crammed into Saturday and Sunday.  On paper, not looking like a set of highly competitive fixtures.  Hmm, no derbies for the first time in awhile as well.

Back to the old 7:30 start with Wolves hosting Spurs on USA.  Figure Tottenham bounces back here.  Three choices at 10.  I'm going with what should be a highly competitive contest between Crystal Palace and Everton.  TV chose Man United vs Luton Town; figure ten Hag still on the hot seat so they must win.  Or you can go with Arsenal - Burnley, which also doesn't look too close.  We finish Saturday with Newcastle remaining in the limelight, getting the 12:30 NBC feature match as they travel to Bournemouth.  They'll be depleted - even more so without Guimaraes - but they are still solid favorites.

We have that Sunday 9 am logjam again, with four to choose from.  No choice for us as Aston Villa is hosting Fulham; we actually recommend that one to the neutral as well because it looks like the most competitive.  TV went with West Ham - Nottingham Forest.  Brighton - Sheffield United or Liverpool - Brentford are the other two choices.  The matchweek concludes at 11:30 with what we would usually expect to be a decent match up between Chelsea and Man City.   Maybe not so much any more.  Even at Stamford Bridge, Opta has City at 50% to win and 27% to draw.  

Three MLS matches to wrap up the first round, one each day, all on MLS Season Pass.  Friday is Seattle - Dallas, Saturday has Houston - Real Salt Lake and Sunday is Columbus - Atlanta.  So far just one favorite (St. Louis) has gone down but these last matches offer three more chances for upsets.

Euro qualifiers starting Wednesday and running through Monday.  A quick check on FS1 and FS2 shows some interesting matches will be available on TV.

Yeah, I know I missed a lot of stuff.  Ranting takes up a lot of space.    

Keep 'Em Coming

Decent, if not perfect weeks for the home sides.  The matches just keep piling up.

Wolves in Wolves Clothing

Hwang with the boot in the box

Newcastle headed to Molineux to face Wolves with a massive hangover (Newcastle not Wolves).  They had dropped a Champions League match 0-1 to Dortmund, added several to the injured list and saw their most expensive off-season acquisition suspended for 10 months.  So I am not overly exercised by Saturday's 2-2 final.  The Magpies did huff and puff and fashioned a couple of one-goal leads that they could not hold.  Right afterwards, I thought the draw seemed about right.  Seeing the xG of 2.02-1.04 almost got me to change my mind until I remembered that one of the Newcastle goals was a PK worth about .8.  Oh yeah, the PK.  In first half stoppage time, Hwang kicked Shar Schar in the schin shin (actually the heel).  Anthony Taylor called it a foul on the field.  A lengthy VAR review ensued but the call stood.  Wolves manager Gary O'Neil was outraged.  Wolves Sporting Director Matt Hooper has been charged with abusive behavior towards Taylor in the tunnel.  Maybe on the soft side but I've seen many softer so live with it.

We Could Have Been Watching the End of Aston Villa - Luton Town

More meh derbies this weekend.  Tottenham managed to win their London derby against Crystal Palace 2-1 despite getting just one shot on target.  Spurs are grateful to Joel Ward for the OG.  They dominated possession 76/24 and certainly looked in control despite being outshot 13/10.  Palace didn't score until the 94th on a nice volley by Ayew just after the ball may or may not have hit his arm (lengthy review was inconclusive so goal stood).  Yet another win for Spurs in which they didn't seem to play that well but also didn't really seem to be in danger of losing.

The other London derby was exciting in that it was another upset as Brentford beat Chelsea 2-0 at Stamford Bridge, no less.  We can only conclude that Chelsea's rehabilitation is still a work in progress.  The xG for the Blues was 1.72, suggesting that finishing is still an issue for this team.

We concluded the derbies with a snoozer of a Manchester derby Sunday morning.  We were pleased that Aston Villa had done a good enough job with Luton Town that we could leave that telecast and get to the derby.  What a waste.  This was so bad that both Dennis and I could only mutter "we missed the end of the Aston Villa - Luton Town match for this?"  Yes, that's how lopsided the 3-0 City win was.  Right now, these two teams aren't even in the same league.  Turned out this match was the highlight of ten Hag's week (see below).

Results Elsewhere

Arsenal stayed undefeated with an easy 5-0 over relegation certainty candidate Sheffield United.  Aston Villa kept pace up top with a 3-1 win over Luton Town.  I thought the score flattered Luton Town but xG says it's about right.  Liverpool also matched the other top sides with a 3-0 win over Nottingham Forest.  Down at the other end of the table, Bournemouth snatched a big three points from relegation rival Burnley with a come-from-behind 2-1 win.  Everton made a big step to break away from the relegation zone's gravity with a 1-0 upset of West Ham.  Rounding out the fixtures, Brighton and Fulham played to a 1-1 draw that likely pleased or offended no one.

You Think You Had A Bad Week

The teenager Hall doubles the Newcastle lead
Photo: AP Photo/Dave Thompson

Not only did Man United go down badly in the derby, they lost their Carabao Cup tie at Old Trafford to a Newcastle side that featured a back line of Tino Livramento, Paul Dummett, Emil Krafth and Lewis Hall.  The final was 3-0.  Lewis Hall (19 year-old transfer from Chelsea) was one of the goalscorers.  I am not making this up.  It is fair to note that Man United also held a few first teamers out as well but take a hard look at the Newcastle line up.  Gordon at center forward, Targett at defensive mid (though he got hurt early), Joe L. Linton at left forward?  The Magpies thoroughly dominated in the first half and deserved the 2-0 lead.  Man United had the run of play for much of the second half but Willock's 60th minute goal put this thing to rest. 

Before the match I would have said I had no regrets playing a heavily rotated side for a Carabao Cup match with Arsenal and Dortmund coming in the next week.  Not fair to ask afterwards.  Sure, I have no regrets we sent out the B team and won.  As for Man United, I'm not sure what's up.  By the end of the week, ten Hag had moved into second behind Sheffield United's Paul Heckingbottom in the EPL sack race.

"Ugly But Good"

That is Chris Gibbons of the Philly Soccer Page describing the Union's performance Saturday night against New England.  The full article is here.  They dodged a bullet early with a shot off the cross bar then a block off the line by Lowe.  Things improved rapidly as Carranza was fouled in the box (well eventually the ref got to the decision with the help of VAR - real time I thought it was a foul) and automatic Gazdag buried the PK.  Uhre followed shortly thereafter with an ugly goal.  The third was actually pretty nice with Harriel converting a Wagner cross for a 3-0 lead.  I had the second half on my phone so I can't say I was following closely; didn't look like they were that pressed to bring home a 3-1 win.  

There are uglier parts though.  Glesnes didn't dress for the match and is done for the year with a sports hernia.  He hasn't been 100% for a while so it must have gotten really bad for him to shut down.  Uglier still is the allegation that Kai Wagner directed an anti-Asian slur at Bobby Wood.  As of press time all we know is that the incident is being investigated.  I don't mean to make too much light of this but  I find it ironic that Wagner is alleged to have delivered the slur in German while Bobby Wood, having played in Germany, speaks the language. 

No Trainwreck Yet

Through the first set of playoff matches, MLS has so far avoided the spate of upsets that made hash of the MLB playoffs.  Seven of eight favorites won, with only St. Louis losing.  Of course, that was just game one so MLS is not safe from this folly just yet.  

More Hardware

I see a banner but no silverware

Or at least a banner.  Dennis's co-ed indoor version of Sportif Allentown won their league title.  I could not find a write- up of the match but reliable sources tell me that Dennis scored the winning goal seconds before the final whistle.  Would have been this week's YouTubeableMoment if we had the video.  

About That Second Yellow

More than once this weekend I heard commentators express the opinion that not all cautionable offenses are worthy of a second yellow and sending off.  As in, it's got to be a manly foul.  I pored over Law XII and have found no such qualifying language.  The law does not say the referee must show a yellow card to a player who: 

• commits in a reckless manner a direct free kick offence unless the player is already on a yellow card, in which case the foul must be really reckless

Same thing for other cautionable offenses.  After getting the first yellow, it's still a yellow for persistent infringement, simulation, waving an imaginary yellow in the referee's face, kicking the ball away to delay the game, etc.  I checked all of them and it says nothing about leniency if you're already on a yellow.  Yes, I'm being facetious.  

Yellow Balls Are Back

In case you missed it, last week saw the introduction of the 23/24 high visibility ball.  

Ich Bin Ein Magpie

All my friends who support other teams have been wishing my Magpies good luck on Saturday.  Then I realized it's because we're playing Arsenal and everybody else in the top five will be rooting for the Gunners to drop some points.  I suggest you keep your hopes in check.  In the last 20 years of Premier League action, Newcastle are 4-7-25 vs Arsenal.  Looking just at the matches at St. James' Park, we take comfort that the record is 3-5-10.  (Advanced mathmeticians will figure out that we are 1-2-15 away.)  The folks at Opta offer a glimmer of hope for Newcastle, with the percentages at 32/28/40; a 60% of grabbing a result is something to cling to.  The match is the NBC feature contest but note the start time of 1:30 as they moved the clocks back last week.  I've lost track already but Newcastle is definitely getting love from the TV schedulers.

Hey, with the clocks moved back, the early Saturday match is at a more civilized 8:30.  Probably worth watching too as we get to see how/if Man United rebound from their bad awful week as they take on Fulham at Craven Cottage.  MUN are still favored but not overwhelmingly so.  You would think anything less than a win leaves ten Hag hanging by a thread.

The 10 11 am slot has five fixtures.  USA gets Man City vs Bournemouth but there are much better choices.  Mid-table London derby anyone?  Brentford - West Ham should be close.  The tightest match of the week according to Opta is Burnley - Crystal Palace at 33/31/36; that seems a bit surprising, although Palace haven't exactly sparkled so far this year.  Everton - Brighton could be good too.  Sheffield United - Wolves doesn't exactly get the juices flowing.

Sunday's matches don't stand out either, though you can count on us to be live for Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa (9 am USA - don't forget to turn the clocks back).  Luton Town hosting Liverpool sounds routish.  Fortunately the matchweek concludes Monday with another London Derby as Spurs host Chelsea.  Tottenham haven't really put it together but haven't lost; Chelsea haven't put it together and have struggled.  Important test for both.

There's a full week of European action with Champions League on Tuesday and Wednesday and the less competitions on Thursday.  We can probably fit two in on Tuesday since Newcastle play at Dortmund at 12:45.  Surveying the menu at 3 pm, we'll probably go with PSG-Milan, the other two sides in Newcastle's group.  Last time out Arsenal - Sevilla was a good watch so we might do that on Wednesday; Copenhagen-Man United might slip ahead depending on the situation at MUN.  Thursday will be Aston Villa hosting AZ Alkmaar.

All of the MLS first round second matches will be held between Friday and Wednesday.  In classic Apple fashion, whereas many of the first set were on "free" Apple, these all look to be on MLS Season Pass.  A noteable exception is that the Union match at New England will be on FS1 at 7pm.  We'll see how the favorites do on the road.

In short, another busy week.