Long List of Co-conspirators

Many sets of fingerprints were lifted from the scene of the crime - Saint James' Park, where Newcastle lost 1-2 to Liverpool despite playing a man up for over an hour.  The Union played well in DC on Saturday but then committed many of the same crimes Newcastle did Wednesday in Toronto.

Indictments Unsealed in Newcastle Case

Bailiff, read the charges.

On the afternoon of 8/27/23, in the course of losing 1-2 to Liverpool, Newcastle players, individually or collectively, committed the following offenses:

- failure to protect a 1-0 lead despite having a man advantage starting in the 28th minute

- after coughing up the lead in the 81st minute, failure to protect the 1-1 draw despite still having the man advantage

- two counts of defensive malfeasance that led directly to Liverpool goals by co-conspirators Nos. 4 and 33 [Botman and Burn]

- one count recklessly endangering a teammate with an ill-advised back pass by co-conspirator No. 39 [Guimaraes]

- two counts of failure to put a wide open shot on frame by co-conspirator No. 24 [Almiron]

- one count accessory to squandering a lead by failing to find the right mix of tactics, personnel and mentality by co-conspirator unnumbered [Eddie Howe]

Darwin Nunez ensures survival of the fittest
Photo: Ian MacNicol/Getty Images

The facts of the case:

1. Newcastle were playing well and had built a 1-0 lead on a good finish by Anthony Gordon

2. At 28 minutes, Newcastle were the beneficiary of a red card for DOGSO by Virgil van Dijk.  (That case will be adjudicated in a different court.)

3. In the following minutes, Newcastle were the better side and only a great save by Alisson on an Almiron rocket kept the score 1-0.

4. At or around 40 minutes, Newcastle attacking diminished

5. In the second half, Newcastle were tentative and at times outplayed.  They did manage some shots but they went into the stands or Alisson's midsection

6. Eventually, a defensive miscue by Botman sprung Darwin Nunez in on Nick Pope and he found the corner of the net in the 81st minute.

7.  Liverpool continued to press their disadvantage and a second error, this time by Burn, allowed Nunez to repeat his earlier effort for a second goal.

Good luck finding an impartial jury in Newcastle.  Seriously this was awful.  The only good thing about it is...nothing.  

What's the Point?

As you know, we are thrilled with the new EPL policy of yellows for being a dick.  John Brooks appropriately applied it to Trent Alexander-Arnold early in the match for a petulant toss of the ball at Gordon.  Except, minutes later, when Alexander-Arnold committed a tactical foul on a breakaway, he didn't show a second yellow.  Well, if you're going to use the yellow for time wasting or whatever as an excuse to "raise the standard" for the second yellow, you've defeated the purpose.  Jim Beglin's attempted lame defense that it wasn't serious enough to warrant a yellow fell apart when, on cross examination, he readily conceded that Alexander-Arnold would have been shown a yellow for the offense if it didn't already have a yellow.

Any One of Them Would Have Been Fine

We made a big deal about how Everton - Wolves was the clear choice for 10 am viewing last Saturday.  We were right that it was an excellent match, as good a 1-0 game as you'll see.  Wolves came away with all three points courtesy of a late goal but the Player of the Match had to be "No Way" Jose Sa, who had several fine saves, including this YouTubeableMoment of a stop.  It's just that every other match in that time slot - all of which we had pre-panned - was also good, perhaps better.  

Man United spotted Nottingham Forest two goals in the first five mintues and spent the rest of the afternoon catching up.  Which they did, eventually winning the match 3-2.  They were undoubtedly aided by Worrall's red card in the 67th minute.  In one London Derby, Brentford and Crystal Palace battled to a 1-1 draw, with Palace scoring late to grab a point.  In the other, Arsenal spent much of the match down 0-1 to Fulham, then scored twice in the span of two minutes to take the lead, only to cough it up on corner in the 87th minute.  This with Fulham a man down no less.  Yes, it was all good.

Two goals from Matty - A stash of Cash?
Photo: Getty Images

Elsewhere, results went largely to form.  Chelsea handled Luton Town 3-0, Spurs beat Bournemouth 2-0.  Man City had a scare against Sheffield United.  Surprisingly this was 0-0 until Haaland scored in the 63rd minute.  More surprising was Bogle's equalizer at 85 minutes.  City did have the last laugh though as Rodri got the game winner at 88 minutes.  Maybe West Ham 3-1 over Brighton is a bit of an upset. Check out the Hammers' goals here; that's some fine finishing by Ward-Prowse, Bowen and Antonio.  Lastly, Aston Villa did just fine at Turf Moor, besting Burnley 3-1 without anyone getting hurt.  At least during the match.  Martinez hurt himself in practice but fortunately, Olsen is a decent back up.  Matty Cash had two for the Villans

Get the Eff Up

Fulham were furious that Arsenal's second goal came with one of the players down on the end line near their goal.  They were clearly expecting Arsenal to kick the ball out.  Except, it was obviouly not a head injury so there was absolutely no obligation on the part of the Gunners to do so.  Here's the best part.  The player had hurt his hand.  Your team is under pressure and you can't get your butt up to help defend.  Maybe if he'd broken his hand or wrist I could dredge up some sympathy but he remained in the game.  The thought that it is "good sportsmanship" to kick the ball out when an opponent is down with an injury has long gone out the window with the overreaction and even feigning of injuries.  Players, you have made your own bed so you can lie it in now.  

The Kompany You Keep

I couldn't pull this look off in a million years

Burnley are off to a shaky start and may be heading for a long relegation battle.  If the Clarets do go back down, the league will lose perhaps its best fashion plate in Vincent Kompany.  The picture shows how, even in a white tee shirt, baseball cap and sneakers, he is the model of sartorial excellence.  Of course, we are free to try this but Will Smith explains here why it won't work for us.

The Company You Keep

Through 12/31/22, the top five most expensive transfers in EPL history were:

Grealish $146m

Lukaku $124 m

Pogba $116 m

Antony $100 m

Maguire $97 m

Now, you could have a reasonable debate about how these worked out but it's hard to conclude that any of these five played up to the expectations that accompanied their transfer fees.  Since January, the list has been amended to add:

Caicedo $146 m

Rice $138m

Fernandez $136 m

 The track record is not good.  On the other hand, the bar is low.  

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve: Did you say Aston Villa were facing financial difficulties?

Dennis: No I said they need to find some reserves for Cash to add depth to the squad

Seeing Red But Still Getting Points

Three more red cards this week, with the receiving teams going 1-1-1.  For the season, there have been nine sendings off sending offs red cards with the supposedly disadvantaged sides getting four wins and a draw.  

Lousy Draws

Just not a good week for Newcastle as their Carabao Cup third round fixture and Champions League group assignment are tall orders.   We've spoken many times of the quaint tradition in English football of not seeding teams in cup competitions but instead letting teams from the higher tiers enter the competition later.  For the Carabao Cup, the Premier League sides enter in the second round while any team involved in the European competitions (eight this year - Man City, Arsenal, Man United, Newcastle, Brighton, Aston Villa, Liverpool and West Ham) come in for the third round.  So guess who Newcastle get in the third round.  Right, Man City.  Teams get a bye just so they can face each other in their opening round.  This is even richer.  Remember last year's Carabao Cup finalists?  Right, Man City and Newcastle.  Arte Johnson offers his opinion on this approach here.

We knew the Champions League would be difficult.  The reigning champions go into one pot, meaning there's no way they'll be in the same group.  The rest of the clubs are divided into the other three pots, based on their club coefficient ranking.  The Magpies, who haven't played in Europe since 2012, had the fourth worst ranking and were in the last pot.  They were virtually assured of at least two difficult opponents.  As it was, they got three, ending up in the group with PSG, Borussia Dortmund and AC Milan.  The draw was so bad for Newcastle, you could hear the crowd gasp.  Reaching the knockout stage will be a long shot. I understate.

The Costanza Defense

I had stayed out the cess pool that is the management and administration of the Spanish women's national team, preferring to focus on the fine work of the players.   However, the kiss that the head of the Spanish federation, Luis Rubiales planted on lips of Jenni Hermoso (details here) won't go away, especially after Rubiales offered up his first apology:

However, criticism continued to mount, and Rubiales acknowledged in Monday's statement -- according to a Pro Soccer Wire translation -- that "on the outside it has caused a stir, because people have felt hurt by it, so I have to apologize; there’s no alternative."  He characterized his interaction with Hermoso as "something natural and normal," but as president of the national federation he conceded he must be held to a higher standard. “I made a mistake, for sure,” Rubiales said. “I have to accept it. In a moment of such emotion, without any bad intention or bad faith, what happened, happened, in a very spontaneous way. [There was] no bad faith from either side."

Okay, maybe it's not as bad as the George Costanza defense but it is the classic "I don't think it's wrong but if you are offended by it, then I apologize."  Things deteriorated from there.  He has refused calls to resign and claims the kiss was consensual, which Hermoso categorically denies.  The whole team says they will not play for Spain unless he steps down. 

 

Foiled By the New Manager Bounce?

Things went well for the Union down in DC as they handed United a 3-1 defeat.  Uhre and McGlynn had them up 2-0 within 13 minutes and Gazdag added a PK late in the first half.  DC got a consolation goal late.  The stats, especially xG (1.96-1.63), suggest a closer match but I don't recall feeling like this one was in jeopardy.  I was watching on my phone so maybe I didn't see everything.

The trip to Toronto was not so nice.  This club had lost eight straight (10 if you count League Cup) and hadn't won since May 27th.  On Monday, the club announced that John Herdman, who has had some success with the Canadian national team, would be taking over as manager formally on October 1.  He was in the stands for Wednesday's match and presumably has had some contact with the team already.  Does that qualify for a new manager bounce?

Not sure who makes that call but it doesn't matter.  The Union were behind the eight ball for this match, looking slow on defense (and it wasn't just the crappy Apple streaming feed) and generally outplayed.  Possession was 42% and they only had two shots on target (but 17 total shots).  Somehow, xG is 2.2 -1.7 favor the Union.  Guess those missed shots were high percentage.  It certainly didn't feel that close.  The loss takes the U from second to fourth.      

First place was really already gone anyway.  But home field advantage for the playoffs is a reason to want 2nd or at worst 4th in the standings.  Certainly not out of range.  

Don't Look at Your Shadow, It's Behind You (apologies to Stephen Stills and Manassas)

Last week, we highlighted the steep hill Inter Miami will need to climb to make the MLS playoffs. Well, off the two games this week, Chicago better not look behind them.  Miami got four points from a 2-0 win over Red Bulls in Harrison (which featured the YouTubeableMoment East of the Atlantic Division, with Messi getting the secondary assist on his own goal) and followed it with a 0-0 draw at home to Nashville.  Chicago meanwhile dropped six points, losing to LAFC and Vancouver.  So, Miami is now 10 points back of Chicago with two games in hand.  Reworking last week's math,  Miami can reach 50 points by winning out from here.  Chicago would need to get 19 points from eight matches if that were to happen.  They are currently average 1.23 points per game so that would get them only another 10 points.  At that rate, this ain't over.

Rinse and Repeat

Another busy weekend ahead of the international break. Opta's predictions for the week are here.

We start on Friday again with Luton Town (again) hosting West Ham at 3 pm on USA.

Might be worth getting up at 7:30 for Sheffield and Everton.  Both teams need to get points off of teams like each other if they want to avoid relegation.  Opta has it as the most competitive match of the weekend.  This one is on USA so we can sleep a little later and catch up on DVR.  

Four 10 am choices - none look all that competitive with the options being Brentford - Bournemouth, Burnley-Tottenham, Chelsea-Nottingham Forest or Man City - Fulham.  Hard pressed to pick one out of that bunch.  Chelsea - Forest is the USA match.   We'll probably go with Burnley-Spurs to see what Kompany is wearing and to see if Spurs can maintain their exciting level of play.  Probably the least likely of the four to be a rout.  

Newcastle again get the spotlight, this time on the NBC feature match at 12:30 as they face Brighton down the shore as we say in Philly.  Both sides are coming off of somewhat unexpected losses.  Brighton are favored at home but the Magpies snatching a point doesn't seem out of the question.  

Sunday has the best match of the weekend with Arsenal hosting Man United at 11:30 on USA.  Two choices for your 9 am warm-up.  We'll go with Liverpool - Aston Villa, even if we fear a tough day for the visitors; that's on USA.  Crystal Palace - Wolves, on Peacock, might be a close one.

We get the tickets for Sunday night at Subaru Park as the Union face Red Bulls.  Recall that Jim Curtin threw out some lockerroom bulletin board quotes after the last time the Jersey Boys were in town.  Should add to the atmosphere.  It's never pretty when these two play.  

In the playoff saga, Inter Miami travel to California to face the always tough LAFC.  An early challenge to winning out the season.  Chicago are at DC.

European Championship Qualifiers run from Thursday to Tuesday.  We might get to look in on France-Ireland Thursday at 2:45.

Busy but manageable.  Uh oh, refereeing starts 9/9.

Little Crumbs of Comfort

 I think it was Jim Proudfoot's explanation of the positives that Aston Villa took away from their opening day loss to Newcastle but it works well this week too for Newcastle and the Union.  Women's World Cup wrapped up with a decent if not scintillating final.

The Reign of Spain

The Spain-England final featured some good back-and-forth football, just not much scoring.  Olga Carmona got the only goal at 29 minutes; you can see the video here.  My take was that Spain were marginally the better side.  The stats bear that out.  Possession was 56/44, shots were 12/8, shots on target were 4/3 and expected goals were 2.2/.5.  Remember that 2.2 includes .8 for the late PK awarded to Spain.  I begrudgingly agreed with the handling call but was happy that Earps (who won the keepers award for the tournament) stopped it.  At least it gave us the possibility of an England equalizer in the closing minutes.  Alas, it never came.  

I didn't get to see the third place match in which Sweden got bronze with a 2-0 win over Australia.  Good tournaments for both of those sides.

Aside from the disappointment that the USWNT didn't go make a deep run, this was an entertaining tournment.  The expanded field resulted in an interesting group stage, even if there were a few overmatched squads.  The knockout stages weren't quite as exciting but still mostly offered close contests.  With more countries taking an interest in their women's program, this looks to be a very competitive tournament going forward.

Women's World Cup Final - Director's "Cut"

Because of a DVR malfunction, I had to watch the final on a replay offered later in the day on Sunday.  Full disclosure - by malfunction I mean I forgot to set the DVR.  A busy weekend so cut me some slack.  Anyway, as I'm watching the replay, Spain are about to take a throw-in on their half of the field at 25:08.  Next thing I see is England taking a goal kick at 27:05.  WTF?  It happened at least two other times during the replay.  One was okay, as Spain are taking a throw-in and the time advances only 15 seconds and they are still taking the throw-in; I do that all the time watching replays.  But the other one cut out more than a minute and a change of possession.  Obviously nothing of consequence happened but those edits were incredibly jarring.  And unnecessary.  There are plenty of ways to cut 3-5 minutes off the viewing time in ways that would be essentially imperceptible to all but the most eagle-eyed viewers.  Fox remains ahead of Apple as a soccer TV provider but they are still way behind Peacock, ESPN and even Paramount.

Small Consolation

Newcastle give Alvarez a little too much space

What to say about Newcastle's 1-0 loss to Man City at the Etihad?  There's no shame in a narrow defeat to the best club side in the world.  City did not run roughshod over the Magpies, who did not bunker in or seem intimidated by their hosts.  There were about 15 minutes late in the match when a Newcastle equalizer didn't seem out of the question.  The xG was 1.23 - .26, supporting the view that this was not a blow out.

On the other hand, the .26 xG shows how little offense Newcastle generated.  Close or not, the result was still disappointing.  We are better but the gap is still there.  

$145 m per PK Conceded

Chelsea do not seem to have righted their ship yet.  They did manage a draw versus Liverpool last week but fell 1-3 to West Ham on Sunday, despite being a man up for the last 23+ minutes.  They were down 1-2 at the time, didn't look all that threatening even with the advantage, and eventually conceded a third goal.  That was courtesy of a foul in the box by Caicedo, their expensive midfield acquisition from Brighton.  Mildly defensive here but I will not be putting up with complaints about Newcastle spending money in the transfer market when Chelsea shell out $145 million for this guy.  He's not a bad player but how is he possibly worth anything close to that?  I was mildly dismayed when Newcastle paid over $40 million each on Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes but this is a whole 'nother level of overspending.    

Also, Pochettino's lament about the better side losing rings a touch hollow.  The xG was 1.71 - 1.61 so you didn't dominate.  Yes, .76 of West Ham's number is because of the PK, but so was Chelsea's; the difference was they missed theirs.  Only two weeks in but this still looks like last year's model.

Addition By Subtraction

A side definitely not driving last year's model is Tottenham.  Despite (because of?) the departure of Harry (He's not one of us anymore), new manager Postalcode Postcolonial Ange has Spurs playing some attractive, flowing football.  I can't be much of neutral with respect to Spurs now as they likely be vying with Newcastle for a Champions League spot but damn they are enjoyable to watch. Spurs benefitted from some United misses (looking at you Fernandes and Rashford) and the final probably should have been closer.  Also, I expect some United fans will squawk about Romero not getting called for handling.  For me it was the right call; his hands were not above his shoulders, they were that far from his body and the arms were arguably in a natural position given that he was lunging with one leg.  Personally, a draw might have been a better result for Newcastle but I can't deny it was fun to watch.

Seeing Red

Five sides saw red cards in Matchweek 2 contests.  Three of them still won.  Two even scored after going down a man. Mac Allister exited with a straight red in the 58th minute with Liverpool up on Bournemouth 2-1.  Minutes later it was 3-1 and that was the final.  At West Ham, Aguerd made a stupid challenge already carrying a yellow and was given his marching orders in the 67th minute against Chelsea.  They managed just fine, adding a PK late to make the final 3-1.  Arsenal, playing Crystal Palace saw Tomiyasu sent out off in the 67th minute after he got one yellow for time wasting and a second for a marginal foul.  The Gunners were up 1-0 at the time, spent the rest of the match bunkered in and held on for the win.  Actually, Palace looked like they could have played another 45 minutes up a man and still not scored.

Fulham were not so fortunate against Brentford.  Already down 0-1, they saw Tim Ream sent off at 64 minutes.  The Bees added two more with their advantage for a 3-0 win.  The red card in the Wolves 1-4 loss to Brighton was actually a footnote.  Their fate was already sealed when Nunes got a second yellow in the 95th minute. 

That'll Leave A Mark

Sheffield United were seconds away from taking home a point from Nottingham Forest.  Then Chris Wood  scored a header goal in the 90th minute to steal the win for Forest.  It really was a quality header as seen in this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Doesn't seem like much in August but come May, lost points like that could really matter for Sheffield United.  Also, nice to see Chris Wood find that scoring touch.  He was much maligned during his time at Newcastle but he didn't have the supporting cast that plays at St. James' Park now.

That's More Like It

Aston Villa rebounded quickly from the loss to Newcastle with a 4-0 thumping of Everton.  All the stats say this was about the right score.  Only negative was that Coutinho went down with what looked like a serious injury.  Later reports suggest it wasn't so bad and he might only miss weeks not months.  But there are reports that he's heading to Qatar soon anyway.  They also got a 5-0 win versus Hibernia, virtually locking up their advancement to the group stage of the Europa Conference League.

Silverware for Miami

Messi is 1-0 in cup competition at Miami

They are dead last in the East with 18 points but Miami got to lift the Leagues Cup trophy after outlasting Nashville in a 22-kick shootout.  The Cup came down to the two keepers taking PKs against each other in the 11th round of kicks.  Miami's Callander converted his, Panicco did not.  

Miami ran the table, winning both their group stage fixtures, then five straight knockout matches.  Note that two of those were draws decided by PKs but still an impressive run. 

So now what for this club?  They are currently 14 points out of a playoff position with 12 regular season matches to go.  If they won all 12, clubs like Montreal or Chicago would have to get 22 points from 10 matches, which doesn't sound all that easy.  Of course, neither does winning 12 straight, especially when you realize that they won't go to PKs if there's a draw.  I will say that Miami is the Philadelphia Phillies of the MLS; they may not make the playoffs but if they do, this is one club you would prefer not to face.

Um, don't look now but Miami just advanced to another Cup final.  They beat Cincinnati (on PKs, how about that) to gain a spot in the US Open Cup final.  Should you find yourself with 15 minutes of spare time, check out the highlights of that match; stuff like this might actually boost the interest in the MLS.  The final against Houston Dynamo is 9/27.

Some Consolation

The Union closed out their run in the  Leagues Cup competition smartly with a 3-0 win over Monterrey.  Sure it's only a third place trophy but they 1)didn't mail in their performance and 2) come away with a spot in next year's CONCACAF Champions League.  Actually, that's more than just crumbs.  They got deep in the competition without playing their best and came away with something useful.  Hopefully, this strong ending leaves them with a positive feeling about the team as they head into the last 11 games with lots of work to do.

Wait, I forgot to mention the best part.  The two Jeffs report that the substitute sausage vendor on Saturday put two sausages in each roll.

Simplification

Wow, just EPL and MLS this weekend.

Opta's predictions for this week are here.

Premier (so to speak) match of the weekend looks like Newcastle - Liverpool at 11:30 on Sunday (USA).  This is a more important test for the Magpies than last week versus Man City.  Losing at Man City is almost expected but Liverpool are not Man City and this one is at Saint James' Park.  Opta doesn't think much of our chances (27/28/45).  Hmm, I was thinking anything less than a draw would be a failing grade; I guess maybe Opta doesn't see Newcastle as a top six squad.

Things get started on Friday with Chelsea hosting Luton Town at 3 pm on Peacock.  Hmm, probably wouldn't watch otherwise but it's the only game in town.  Saturday starts too early with Bournemouth vs Spurs at 7:30 on USA; should not be trouble for Tottenham.

Four matches at 10 am.  If you're looking for the most competitive, I'd go with Everton - Wolves on Peacock.  If you like London Derbies (of which there are only 42 this year) you can do Arsenal - Fulham (USA) or Brentford - Crystal Palace (Peacock).  Man United - Nottingham Forest (Peacock) doesn't look all that attractive.  The NBC feature match at 12:30 with Brighton - West Ham is probably worth checking out.

On Sunday, we have two 9 am matches to warm up for the Newcastle - Liverpool contest.  I wasn't thinking Burnley would be a severe test for Aston Villa but Opta thinks otherwise.  Villa are favored but not by as much as I expected.  Probably should choose this one over Man City - Sheffield United.

The Union play on the road after a long string of home matches in the Leagues Cup.  They'll face DC United at 7:30 Saturday night.  Hey, it's on "free" Apple.  We'll also keep on eye on Red Bulls - Miami to see how the Herons fare in regular league play.

Those in need of mid-week football can take comfort in a complete MLS set of fixtures on Wednesday.  The Union go to Toronto.  Also, Miami host Nashville.  We may get a quick sense of how Miami will do in league play.  Right now all matches look to be on Mighty Lame Soccer Season Pass, not "free" Apple.

Fewer competitions maybe but still much to watch.

Messy

Not much normal about Tuesday night's Leagues Cup semi at Subaru Park.

 - Despite getting there a half hour earlier than usual, we were lucky to get the last parking spot in our favored church lot

- Messi jerseys of all types were almost as prevalent as Union attire

- The Union lost at home

- The Union gave up four goals at home

The only thing not out of whack was the sausage sandwich.  Wait, come to think of it, the roll crumbled as I ate it, leaving peppers and onions all over the place.  Bad omen.

But the weirdest part is how I'm going to try to explain that the final score of 1-4 was deceptive.  Start with expected goals.  According to The Athletic, the margin was 2.56 - .60 favor the Union.  Corners were 8-0, shots 16-5 and shots on target 4-4.  Yep, Miami scored on every shot on target.  We've known for a long time how much the U depend on Andre Blake and it was incredibly clear Tuesday night.  The Martinez goal at 3 minutes (I had barely finished cleaning up the peppers and onions) was simply a fabulous shot but also worth about .04 xG.  The Messi goal?  Still trying to figure out how Blake didn't stop that one, a change up from 30 yards (36.3 to be exact) with a .01 xG; seen here, I'll grant it was perfect placement but it was also clocked with a sundial.  The other two were breakaways resulting from defensive failures but Blake looked to have a decent chance to stop both.  On the other side of the pitch, the Union were generating much higher percent opportunities but they were either stopped by Drake Callender or flat out missed by the Union.  And that is a text book example of how xG will vary from the actual score.

Martinez negotiates with Messi to be in his next Lay's ad

Note I said deceptive, not unfair.  The U made a living eking wins out of their Leagues Cup matches and finally got caught.  Just too many things not working.  Some bright spots were Jose Martinez (did his normal defensive work, helped on the attacking side, didn't get a yellow card, wasn't taking crap from Messi), Damian Lowe (actually dispossessed Messi on a few occasions) and Bedoya (team played a bit better after he entered the match and he got the U's only goal).

They get to play in the third place match, which is not exactly a Miss Congeniality Award.  A win in that contest would get them a spot in next year's CONCACAF League of Champions, something their regular season performance seems unlikely to yield.  So, we hope they don't play like it's a consolation match.

Do You Want That In A Cup Or Are You Gonna Drink It Out Of The Can?

Figuring out the beer dispensing policies at Subaru Park has been difficult this year.  For MLS matches, they just give you the can and say enjoy.  For at least one of the CONCACAF Champions League matches, I know they poured it into a plastic cup.  But it might have only been for the game against the Mexican side Atlas.  For the Leagues Cup, they were just giving us the cans, even if the opponent was from Liga MX.  But for Tuesday night, they were pouring it again.

Our vendor said it was because of Messi.  Jeff H said he doubted that Messi fans would be throwing cans at their idol.  The vendor shrugged, suggesting maybe they were worried about disgruntled French fans, upset that Messi had abandoned PSG for Miami.

Spain vs England for the WWC

Decent semi-final matches on Tuesday and Wednesday with Spain edging Sweden 2-1 and England handling Australia 3-1.  Both matches were pretty close but the final results looked about right to me.

Although the Spain - Sweden match featured good back-and-forth action and plenty of tension, you could have also fast forwarded to the 80th minute to get to the important stuff.  Spain scored in the 81st minute but with time running out, Sweden levelled things at 88 minutes, making extra time seem inevitable.  Not so fast as seconds later, Olga Carmona received a corner and fired this shot past Swedish keeper Musovic.  That would be the game winner, sparing us extra time or PKs.

Australia gave Hemp too much rope and she scored the 
game winner (Reuters)

In the other match, I would have said England had the run of play but things were still level at 1-1 going into the 71st minute.  Part of the reason it was even was Sam Kerr, in her first start, firing a rocket in the 63rd minute.  People didn't get to see much of her in this tournament because of her injury and she didn't have a great game against England, missing some chances.  Still, I am making it this week's YouTubeableMoment just to remind us how good she is.  Alas, it was not the game winner as England scored in 71st and then again at 86 minutes to salt away the match. 

We Rant, You Decide

Oy, plenty of right wing trashing of the USWNT in the wake of their loss to Sweden.  And Alexi Lalas' fingerprints are all over it.  From The Washington Post:

Also following the loss, Alexi Lalas, a former men’s national team player, a current Fox analyst and a well-known provocateur, called the team “polarizing” and “unlikeable to a portion of America.” Though Lalas’s comments ring with truth — because, yes, extreme right-wingers despise these women — they seem strange coming from a person who is being paid to elevate soccer knowledge for Americans, not to Hannity-ize the game.

Ot take this post from vox.  Money paragraph for me:

The same kind of “woke = failure” rhetoric was implied in Fox commentator Alexi Lalas’s tweet about the game. (Fox happened to be the network broadcasting the Women’s World Cup.) Lalas wrote, “This USWNT is polarizing. Politics, causes, stances, & behavior have made this team unlikeable to a portion of America. This team has built its brand and has derived its power from being the best/winning. If that goes away they risk becoming irrelevant.” Despite playing on the US men’s national soccer team, Lalas never came close to winning a World Cup. As his critics point out, in his own terms, this would make Lalas irrelevant.

While, I don't necessarily steer clear of politics here it's not a regular feature of the blog.  Sometimes it can't be ignored.  This team already had some element of the country actively rooting against it because of the audacity to support equal rights or even worse, engage in collective bargaining to increase their pay.  The trend was accelerated when some of the team did not sing the national anthem or put their hand over their heart.  That's a pretty lame litmus test.  

Wanna know why the US dominated the international soccer scene for so long?  It was the f**king "woke" policy that the US had of insisting that schools set athletic budgets equally for men and women.  While the rest of the world didn't give a crap about their women's teams, we were developing excellent athletes.  The rest of world is starting to put the resources into the women's programs and has caught up; I doubt you'll see anybody dominate women's soccer the way the US did for 20 years.

Aside from the competition being better, there are plenty of other reasons they lost.  Many players had sub-par performances,  They had injuries.  The coach made questionable decisions on strategy, tactics and personnel.  The US player development system looks to be in chaos.  These are all fair game.  The other stuff?  That's just haters hating.

Still Crowded

And me with family travel obligations Friday and Saturday.

The WWC Final is at the awkward hour of 6 am Sunday morning.  Just early enough to tempt one into early rising.  Especially with two EPL matches to follow.  Probably not for me.  This has been the World Cup of DVRing so might as well continue right through the final.  The betting odds suggest a virtual toss up with a very slight edge to Spain.  

Nashville will host Inter Miami at 9 pm for the Leagues Cup final.  The Union will play Monterrey earlier at 6 pm.  Both matches are on Apple though I can't tell if they are behind the MLS Season Pass. 

The EPL fixtures are nicely spread out over four days so you can catch a lot of the action.  We'll be using projections from Opta, replacing 538, to assess the quality of the match-ups; their projections for this week can be found here.   If we trust those numbers, we have a bunch of interesting fixtures this weekend.

One of those is not Man City - Newcastle in a special time at 3 pm on Saturday on Peacock.  Are the Magpies ready to challenge for the top?  I don't think so but am interested to see if they are any closer.  The folks at Opta have it 69/11/20, suggesting it best to keep my hopes in check.  The fact that they've never won in 18 tries at the Etihad also dampens the enthusiasm.

One that is intriguing fixture is Spurs - Man United, the feature match at 12:30 Saturday on NBC.  Opta has that very close at 39/28/32 for Spurs.  This is an early test for both sides.

A test of a different nature is on view Friday at 2:45 when Nottingham Forest host Sheffield United (USA).  Yes, it's only Week 2 but both of these sides must be eyeing this fixture as an early assessment of their relegation threat.  Forest are favored but not by a lot.

No early Saturday game, then three at 10 am.  We would skip Liverpool - Bournemouth (the one on USA) in favor of either Fulham-Brentford or Wolves-Brighton.  The former is a derby and looks close on paper so that would probably be our choice.  

Two more on Sunday.  Aston Villa host Everton at 9 on USA; this will be an important bounce-back game for the Villans.  The second is another derby featuring West Ham and Chelsea (11:30 USA).  Interestingly, Opta has this very close - 34/29/37 - giving the slightest of edges to Chelsea.  Part of that no doubt is that West Ham are at home but it also reflects Chelsea's uncertain status as a top six club.  The match week concludes with yet another derby - Crystal Palace vs Arsenal - at 3 pm on USA.  The Gunners are comfortable favorites here.

Full slate of MLS games on Sunday if the evening rolls around and you still haven't gotten enough soccer.  Most are on MLS Season Pass but there's are few on "free" Apple.

 

 

What Day Is It?

 Frankly, it's all starting to run together at this point.  Yes on Union, yes on Newcastle, decent WWC quarter finals.  Messi is coming to Philly.  I should just leave it at that.  But I won't.

The Issue of Handling Raises Its Ugly Head

Two of the WWC quarterfinals were affected by handball calls.  One led me to question whether the wording of the law could be tightened up, the other showed the problems with interpreting the language as it currently reads.

Exhibit A for the prosecution is the handling call in 78th minute of Netherlands - Spain, which you can see here.  No disagreement that her arm is in an unnatural position.  But was she really trying to make herself bigger?  Me and Aly Wagner thought no, Dennis yes.  The law however doesn't require the referee to make the distinction.  It just says it's handling when a player "touches the ball with hand/arm when it has made their body unnaturally bigger."  Doesn't say "in an attempt to make the body bigger."  That made me wonder if maybe it should say that so we get back to the deliberate handball concept.  Except that would probably lead to more variability in handling calls.  One objective of the laws is to ensure that similar actions are penalized consistently.  My change would probably make it worse.  I'll withdraw the objection.

IFAB Handbook depicts proper arm
position when playing a back three

We are however still stuck with the issue of what is an unnatural position.  We present Exhibit A for the defense - the handling call against Japan in the 48th minute against Sweden, seen here.  I thought this was incredibly harsh.  She was jumping in attempt to play a ball that was deflected in close proximity. I have said this before, but unless we want all defenders to play like Raquel Welch dances, we need to recognize that the arms have to move when the body does.  It's bad enough watching defenders put their arms behind their backs to ensure that some overzealous official doesn't whistle them for handling.  Exactly how is that a natural position for anything?

Japan were hard done by that call but they lost for host of other reasons, including missing the (incredibly soft) PK that was called in their favor and generally not finding their game until way too late in the match.  

The other two quarterfinals were entertaining, and tense.  Australia and France played to a 0-0 draw through 120 minutes, then needed 10 rounds of PKs before the Matildas prevailed. A bit of keeper story lines there.  France tried to duplicate the 2014 Dutch team by substituting keepers, presumably because Durand was better at PKs than Peyraud Magnin at stopping PKs; Durand did save two of 10, with a third hitting the post.  The one that hit the post?  That was Australia's keeper Mackenzie Arnold.  No worries as she earned her keep (so to speak) with three saves in the shootout.  Dennis asks what's the fascination with keepers taking PKs?  Just a rare bird I guess; you don't see it that often.

Colombia once again killed any rooting interest for me with their "physical" play so I was more than happy to see England advance 2-1.  How is it possible that Ekaterina Koroleva only whistled Colombia for eight fouls and no yellows?  

And You May Tell Yourself This Is Not My Beautiful Game (apologies to the Talking Heads)

I was not expecting a pretty game Friday night when the Union took on Queretaro.  I was not disappointed.  Things got off to a great start when the lights went out minutes before the scheduled start of the match.  Power was restored in about 20 minutes but the start was delayed for almost 75 minutes as the players needed to warm up again. 

Jesus saves us again
Photo:Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

When they did get going, the U played some wonderful attacking football for the first 10+ minutes and the goal from Bueno was fully deserved, if a touch sloppy.  Not long after that, the U clearly kicked the ball out to allow for an injured player to be treated.  Queretaro, in one of the most shithouseriest breaches of protocol, did not throw it back to the Union when play restarted.  Things were pretty much awful from there on out.   There was an immediate scuffle over that incident but the shithousery tone was set - pushing, delaying, overacting, all of it.  A player who had already been ejected with his second yellow mockingly waving to the referee as he slowly departed the pitch.  The entire Queretaro bench swarming Harriel as the final whistle blew.   

Wait, the worst part was that not only couldn't the Union put this team away, the visitors leveled things in the 65th minute.  As play dragged on into 10 minutes of stoppage time (shithousery takes time), the threat of this match going to PKs became very real.  Fortunately in that last minute of stoppage time, Torres played a good ball ahead to Wagner, who sent a cross right onto the feet of Donovan which he buried for the game winner.  An easy call for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  We did have a scary moment waiting out the VAR review of offside; close but Donovan was on.  As Jeff H would say, bring on Miamessi.

Meanwhile, Across the Pond...

This cheeky chip from Isak made it 3-1

Newcastle had pretty close to a dream start.  Unfortunately for Dennis, that means Aston Villa's opening was a bit of a nightmare.  The 5-1 final isn't an accurate reflection of how the game played out.  With the score 2-1 at the half, the studio people were talking about what a great match it was, totally entertaining.  Even when Esock's second made it 3-1 at 58 minutes, the game didn't feel out of reach.  Then Newcastle made subs (Wilson and Barnes) and just kept going while Villa looked slow and tired.  The Magpies could have actually added more than the two they did.  Expected goals (according to Understat.com, the new official source for BFS xG numbers) were 4.32 - 1.49.  So the final isn't misleading in that way, just that it was competitive for 70 or so minutes before things fell apart for Villa.

New acquisition Sandro Tonali displayed an excellent work rate and contributed more to the offense than I expected; in fact he score the first goal a mere six minutes in.  Totally unexpected performance on the left wing from Anthony Gordon, who beat Matty Cash fairly regularly.  And when Harvey Barnes came in at 68 minutes, Cash's bad awful day got even worse.  Esock got a brace and just missed out on a hat trick.  The glass is 1/8th empty view is that the defense was cut open a few times and they were lucky not to have given up at least two.  

On the Villa side, at least Diaby looked like a quality addition, especially with Buendia gone for 6-8 months after a knee injury in practice.  Tyrone Mings went down in the first half with what is likely a season ending knee injury as well.  Pau Torres was probably going to eventually take his position anyway but with a European campaign to manage as well as an EPL season, they'll need somebody.  

Saw a few other matches.  Man City looked workmanlike in beating Burnley 3-0.  With two goals, Haaland is on pace to score 76.  Brentford were tough at home and held Spurs to a 2-2 draw.  That would be the Kaneless Spurs, who finally completed a transaction to sell Harry to Bayern Munich for £120 million. And Chelsea - Liverpool drew for the 20th 7th straight time.  Interesting to watch Mo Salah exit the pitch in the 77th, pulling off pieces of tape, littering the field and vacillating between pouting and being angry; Klopp has so far brushed it off.  His pass (Salah not Klopp) to Luis Diaz for the Liverpool goal - seen here - was awesome.

Haven't looked at highlights from other matches but Everton can't be happy with an 0-1 loss at Goodison Park to Fulham.  Brighton "welcomed" Luton to the top tier with a 4-1 thumping.  

Just Pay the Damn Utility Bill

First we had the lights go out at Subaru Park on Friday.  On Sunday, the start of the Brentford - Spurs match was delayed for seven minutes because there was no water coming into the stadium.  Play was allowed to commence once the Brentford CFO convinced the water company that the check was in the mail.  

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis: Did you say Chelsea are pouring it on in the second half?

Steve: No, I said they were now playing with Gusto

Maybe They Were Listening

Check out this list of new directives to EPL referees from Howard Webb.  Wow, this is close to a laundry list of items we've complained about here.  And they do appear to be serious about this.  I  got to see "only" four EPL matches this weekend but saw two yellows for waving the imaginary yellow card, one for kicking the ball away and one for a keeper delaying the taking of a PK.  Still waiting for one for swarming the referee but so far so good.  We are thrilled.

Burnley Fans

At the referee's whistle to start the match, the players took a knee, continuing the practice to protest racism.  A section of fans booed, though others did cheer. Then, early in the match, someone threw a lighter and hit Rico Lewis.  Recall that  three years ago, Burnley fans were responsible for a "white lives matter" banner flown over The Etihad, as detailed here.  Fortunately, Burnley management has taken these issues seriously.  So, for the moment, we will not put them in the category with Leeds, a side we actively root against.  In Leeds' case, management is a part of the problem.

Slowing Down

These mutli-post weeks are draining.  Increases my appreciation for people who have daily columns to put out.  The volume of matches is slowing and this is probably the last multi-post week for awhile.

We have mid-week semi-final action for the WWC and the Leagues Cup.  Spain and Sweden kick off at 4 pm on Tuesday while Australia and England start at 6 am on Wednesday.  Our preferences are Sweden and Australia.  Dennis notes that we will have a first-time winner this year.

For the Leagues Cup we have the Union - Inter Miami at 7 on Tuesday and Monterrey - Nashville at 9:30.  I am happy to report that I will be in attendance at Subaru Park.   The Leagues Cup matches have seen less than full capacity thus far but somehow I don't think that will be the case Tuesday.  The Union will have to play better than any of their recent outings if they want to make it to the finals.  Note that regardless of the outcome, they will play again Saturday.  Third place in the Leagues Cup doesn't sound all that great except you get a spot in CONCACAF Champions League.  Given the U's MLS season, it's not clear they were going to get a berth through that route.

We'll be back Friday to look at the finals and to review the EPL schedule.  

It Was Not A False Alarm

Fears about the ability of the USWNT to go deep in this World Cup proved to be well-founded.  Though they put up a better performance, they failed to advance against Sweden on penalty kicks.  The Union did better on the PK thing and are onto the Leagues Cup quarters.  The Premier League starts Friday.  Overwhelmed by the material, we will do the best we can.

Better But Not Enough

Musovic was player of the match vs US.
Stats say she only had 3 saves but seemed like more
Creator: Robin Alam/USSF | Credit: Getty Images for USSF

The US basically pushed Sweden all over the place but could not score in 120 minutes of open play.  To wit, possession was 58/42, shots 22/9, shots on target 11/1 and xG 2.64 - .67.  So how much of the expected goal versus actual goal differential was bad finishing versus excellent keeping by Zecira Musovic?  Some of both I think.  But whatever, the failure to put the ball into the net meant it came down to penalty kicks.  And both Rapinoe and O'Hara missed.  

Not a shock that they didn't advance, though it is jolting that a team that you could historically pencil in for at least the semis in every international tournament.  The inquest is in full swing.  I must admit to surprise that as of this writing, Andonovski is still the manager.  ESPN has thoughts here and clearly put a big chunk of the blame on him.  But what about more systemic issues with US women's soccer?  A long read from Henry Bushnell here - written before the WWC started by the way- looks at why the USWNT might not be getting the best players.

Is Japan Having Fun Because They Are Winning?

Or winning because they are having fun?  Whichever, they are an enjoyable watch and my new preference to win the whole thing.  Well, them or maybe Australia.

No One Expects the Spanish Demolition (apologies to Monty Python)

Compare and contrast Spanish and US manager.  After the 0-4 pasting by Japan, he made five personnel changes and only three players were in the same position.   Fewer passes, more shots.  26 with 10 on goal.  They even shot - successfully- on their own goal, giving the Swiss their only tally of the night.

Definition of a Rout

After the 23rd minute of France's 4-0 defeat over Morocco, I went to 2x fast forward on the DVR.  After halftime I went to 4x.  And there was no reason to stop using fast forward.

  

A Half-hearted Defense of Kicks From the Spot

Two of the Round of 16 matches played extra time and went to PKs.  As noted above, Sweden advanced over the US 5-4.  England dispatched Nigeria 4-2.  

Before the England - Nigeria shootout, Aly Wagner registered her preference that they play until the there's a winner on the field.  Before the US -Sweden festivities, Alexi Lalas said essentially "it's not a coin flip, penalty kicks are a skill, some are good at it, others aren't."  Well, the same could be said of axe throwing but we don't use that to decide soccer matches that are level after extra time.  I guess at least PKs are a soccer skill.

I've come to accept that kicks from the spot are probably the best way to decide knockout matches, with the critical exception of the final in a competition.  Teams that are forced to play more than 30 minutes of extra time to get a winner are at a distinct disadvantage in subsequent rounds of the competition, which usually only have four days between matches.  Also, the extra extra time creates the likelihood of more yellow cards, which can mean that key players may be suspended for subsequent games.  I realize the argument against this is, well, just play harder and win quickly; if it took you 150 minutes to defeat somebody, you deserve to be tired for the next match.  They do it in hockey.  Yeah, except your next match is usually against the team you just played overtime against so there's no disadvantage; if it was the final match of a series, you probably have a few days before the next series starts.  I guess I feel like a long overtime match is an unlucky break and I'd rather see it not affect subsequent games.

But, all bets are off for the final.  My points don't hold up for the final match of a competition and I'd be happy to see them play as many minutes as it takes to get a winner.  

Women Behaving Badly

As we have noted, the level of s**thousery at this tournament is well below what we see in the men's game.  There are, however, exceptions.

I began the Colombia - Jamaica match as a neutral but by 20 minutes in, the Neymarish antics of the Colombians had me rooting for the ReggaeGirlz.  Every touch foul turned into minutes of writhing on the ground and requisite calls for yellow cards.  Not saying Jamaica wasn't fouling a lot, just that Colombia were looking for assault and battery charges every time.

We also had the heroine of England's big win over China, Lauren James, get a straight red for stomping on the back of a prone Nigerian player.  She was having a frustrating day no doubt but this was not a good look.  She spent a year's worth of good will in one rash moment.  The red card carries with it an automatic one-match ban but one could easily see it being increased to two or three matches.  

The good news is still that in large part this tournament has been refreshingly short on this kind of stuff.

Thank the Lord Jesus

Muy Bueno; Jesus got the winning PK

In their Round of 16 match, the Union spotted the Red Bulls an early goal (in the 4th minute) and gave up another excellent chance shortly thereafter.  I couldn't tell in the stadium but BFS Project Director Bob K reports that "it was bad enough that the crowd started yelling "hey Union, wake up, with an expletive in the middle."  Fortunately, they did and the U pretty much dominated the rest of the way.  Unfortunately, that didn't translate into shots on target right away or a goal until the 68th minute (a nice header from Harriel).  Changes to bring in Uhre and Buena energized the team and we saw a lot of McGlynn long passes to Uhre creating some great scoring chances.  We thought maybe it would translate into a game winner in regulation but they kind of lost the plot after the goal so regulation ended 1-1.

So we're on to another shoot out.  Blake had a good save on the first shot.  Tied at 3-3, it came down to Jesus Bueno to move the Union to the quarterfinals.  He buried it.  And there was much rejoicing.  This is becoming like the Carabao Cup.  I make fun of it until my team goes deep, then I start to care about it.

Stop Me If You've Heard Seen This One

So Messi was at it again, this time down in Dallas.  Scored the opener.  Helped set up another.  Then, with time running out, scored another postage stamp free kick goal - seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment - to send the match to PKs.  Miami, of course, won the shoot out and advance to the quarters.   For those keeping score at home, Messi has seven goals in his first four games for Miami.  

The Cupertino Overlords

I wish I had seen this marvelously cynical article about the Leagues Cup from Matthew DeGeorge at The Delco Times earlier.  Shockingly, it appears it's all about the money.  My favorite paragraph:

So the big question – Who cares? Well, anyone with a financial stake in MLS or Liga MX. Mexican clubs want to connect with their fans in the diaspora, hence the regular border crossings for friendlies. MLS would like to convert those fans, who love soccer but may not be attached to MLS, into supporters of their local outfits. The tournament gives Apple TV, in its first season as MLS’s broadcast partner, more games to stock its app, solidifying MLS’s role as content creator for its Cupertino overlords. And in an orgiastic instance of corporate synergy, Lionel Messi will make his debut in Leagues Cup when last-placed Inter Miami get trampled by Cruz Azul Saturday, further conning the world into paying attention. (In less cynical terms, it tightens the working bond between the three countries who will co-host the 2026 World Cup, an important accelerant for soccer in this hemisphere.)

Okay, he gets Messi and Inter Miami wrong but calling Apple the MLS's Cupertino overlords is brilliant.  

WARNING: RANT AHEAD

DeGeorge reminds us of another way the evil Apple empire has insidiously worked its way into the MLS - the three game first round playoff format coming to MLS stadiums in October.  Surely this is simply about having more product to peddle on MLS Season Pass.  Right but please don't call me Shirley.  I almost convinced myself that the three game format might not be awful because in theory it could reduce the number of upsets in the first round.  The weaker teams have to beat the better teams twice to advance, so one lucky performance will not be enough anymore.  But then I realized that in a best-of-three format you can't have draws and they won't play extra time but will go straight to penalty kicks.  So we're right back to luck, not quality, being a key factor in who advances.  Just another example of the American sports marketing philosophy:  It might be a pile of fresh cow manure but if we call it THE PLAYOFFS,  it becomes must-see sports TV.

RIP 538 Sports Forecasting

I thought they were just taking a summer break.  Nope, in June, Disney announced that they were shutting down 538 sports forecasting activities as part of the larger downsizing at the network.  This is incredibly disappointing.  They were my reliable go-to for nuanced expected goals numbers, match outcome probabilities and the projected league table.  At this point I don't see an obvious replacement.

Prognostidictions

I searched for anyone willing to project the EPL table from top to bottom.  Many give you their top four and bottom three but not too many do the whole table.  I've compiled the ones I could find to see if there's any consensus about the coming season.  Here's the spreadsheet:

Well, there certainly is consensus about the title.  And the top four too, apart from some minor shuffling of the order.  Also, not much variation through the ninth spot.  When we get below that, we start to see some wide swings.  Everton and Nottingham Forest look to be the hardest to pin down.  The seers don't show much love for newly-promoted Sheffield United and Luton Town but are optimistic that Vincent Kompany will keep Burnley in the  top flight.  

Prophylactic Sacking

On Tuesday, Wolves announced that Julen Lopetegui had been sacked left the club by mutual consent parted ways with the club reached an agreement with the club to end his nine-month tenure.  Whatever.  He is an ex-manager.  Lopetegui was clearly frustrated by the financial constraints, watching the club lose key personnel.  Guess this was a way of beating the Christmas rush.  Gary O'Neil, who was sacked at Bournemouth in June, is the new guy.  

Frankly, this is helpful to me because I always had to look up the spelling of his name.  Now, if Spurs can get a new guy, life will be much easier.

Schedulers Show No Quarter

Fox and Apple TV do.  Here's the line up for the WWC quarterfinals:

Thursday 9 pm - Spain v Netherlands

Friday 3:30 am - Japan v Sweden

Saturday 3 am - Australia v France

Saturday 6:30 am - England v Colombia

The Leagues Cup quarterfinals will also run on Friday; you'll have to make some choices there:

Friday 8 pm - Union v Queretaro

Friday 8:30 pm - Inter Miami v Charlotte

Friday 8:30 pm - Nashville v Minnesota

Friday 10:30 - LAFC v Monterey

Originally they were supposed to have some on Saturday but I think with the semis scheduled for Tuesday, they realized that a three-day turnaround was too tight.  Viewing for me will depend on which are not behind the paywall.

And of course, we have the kick off of the EPL.  Right now it looks like heavy use of Peacock.  Two best matches for my money are the BFS Derby between Newcastle and Aston Villa on Saturday at 12:30 on NBC and Chelsea - Liverpool at 11:30 Sunday on Peacock.

Things start Friday afternoon with Burnley - Man City at 3 pm on USA.  You can get up early Saturday morning to see Arsenal - Nottingham Forest on Peacock.  Four choices at 10, all on Peacock, none that tantalizing.  Everton - Fulham is probably the most competitive of the lot; Bournemouth - West Ham, Brighton - Luton Town and Sheffield United - Crystal Palace are the other options.

Add an early game Sunday at 9 on Peacock between Brentford and Tottenham, plus a Monday afternoon match at 3 on USA featuring Man United and Wolves and there's your Week 1 viewing. 

So, if you were so inclined, on Saturday you could do WWC matches at  3 am and 6:30 am, join the 7:30 am EPL match in progress, pick one of the four choices at 10 am and finish with Newcastle - Aston Villa at 12:30.  Even I'm not feeling inclined to do that.  Well, I say that now...

Hold On To Your Butts

With many of the knockout round spots hanging in the balance until the final whistle,  Samuel L Jackson's admonition was sage advice.  Certainly many disappointed with USWNT performance but they fared better than some of the other favorites who didn't even make it out of the group stage (looking at you Brazil and Germany).

Slow and Telegraphed

See the ball at the base of the post?  That's how close the 
USWNT came to losing (Robin Alam/USSF/Getty Images)

Aly Wagner succintly described the US play in the 0-0 draw with Portugal.  This felt like the first half of the Netherlands game, except it was that way for the whole match.  It never seemed like there was any space on the field for the players to move and the scoring chances were minimal.  They were lucky that a Portugese scoring attempt in stoppage time hit the post or the next plane ticket would have been for home.  

The post-match inquisition was full of theories.  Passing accuracy was an abysmal 63% but was that due to technical skills or poor tactics?  Both is a possible answer.  Does Andonovski have the skills to manage this team or is the talent not enough?  Again, both is a possible answer.  Were they too satisfied with doing enough just to advance.   More on that below. Yahoo's (and Chestnut Hill's) Henry Bushnell takes deeper dive here; the point about the troubles starting well before the World Cup is particularly apt.  

Of course, they could rally and still go deep into the tournament but that doesn't seem like the obvious path at this point.  Unlike the sirens that went off in the stadium during the Portugal, this may not be a false alarm.  

So Much Noise

One advantage of viewing these matches on DVR is that I have spent virtually no time listening to the talking heads in the studio.  Supposedly, because they are former players, they can offer insights as to what the players are thinking and how they can prepare for the match.  To that point, Carli Lloyd unloaded on the team for essentially acting too happy after the Portugal match.  

Steph Yang did a great piece in The Athletic about the issue of what do we really know about a team's mental state from the limited observations we get to make.  They acted happy on the field but were they really?  And, if they were, what's wrong with that?  She was especially pointed about how much do former players really know.  

They have their own valid experiences, true.  But personnel change, dynamics change, and players know better than anyone that the people commenting from the outside can only guess at the feelings inside.

Farther down in the article, former players, Tobin Heath and Christen Press basically dumped on the whole commentary scene because "they both knew from experience that external opinions were ultimately so much noise." 

I agree.  I do not need to hear Lalas, Lloyd and other players comment on team dynamics.  They don't know anymore than you or I about what's going on inside the minds of the players.  

Best Use of Drama in a Group Stage Match

There were five groups where the final placing was not settled until the final whistle.  By that I mean, one goal would have changed who advanced out of the group.  We mentioned the US-Portugal situation above.  Similarly, a goal by New Zealand against Switzerland would have been enough to send them on but it was not forthcoming and the 0-0 draw meant they were out.  Brazil was in the same place as well; the 0-0 draw with Jamaica meant the Reggae Girlz got second in Group F.  Both games in Group H were in play.  Morocco upset Colombia to earn the second spot, but a late goal by the South Americans would have given the slot to Germany.  Same thing with the Korea - Germany draw; a late tally would have also sent the Germans on.  

But for us, the winner in this category was South Africa - Italy, possibly the best game of the tournament so far.  A draw would have been enough for Italy and they took a 1-0 lead just 11 minutes in.  They ceded the advantage with one of the worst own goals on record, a no-look back pass to the keeper who had no chance to stop it.  South Africa took the lead at 67 minutes but Italy drew level at 74 minutes and looked to have the spot heading into stoppage time.  Then, at 92 minutes, Magaia made a nifty move into the box before sending a soft pass to Kgatlana, who slotted the ball into the net.  Seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment, it was a worthy game winner.  Well, it would be the game winner after another 13 minutes of stoppage time which included a check for a possible handball in the box against South Africa.  

Death By A Thousand 894 Passes

The DNA of Spanish teams apparently requires them to play with lovely passing and high possession but limited scoring.  Against Japan they had 78% possession and 895 passes while being overrun 0-4 as the Japanese counterattack, using just 265 passes, had no trouble opening up the Spanish defense.  The loss meant they finished second in the group so they may yet go deep in the tournament but that is not the recent history of Spanish national teams.

By way of comparison, the Spanish men's team also faced Japan in the group stage in the 2022 World Cup.  In that match, Spain outpossessed Japan 83/17 and made 1058 passes to Japan's meager 225.  They also lost, though it was not a blowout at 1-2.  Like I said, it's in the DNA.

Missed It By That Much

The difference between advancing and going home:
Wilkinson is barely offside (from SkySports)

New Zealand certainly had an up and down competition.  The opening match upset of Norway was negated by the unexpected 0-1 loss to Philippines.  As mentioned above, the 0-0 draw in the final contest with Switzerland was not enough.  But how close they came to advancing may not be obvious.  In the Philippines match, they had seemingly leveled the match in the 68th minute but the goal was chalked off by a VAR revew for offside.  You can see how close the call was in the picture left.  A 1-1 result there and it's New Zealand, not Norway who go on to the knockout rounds.

  

Now I Know

Late in England's 6-1 rout of China, referee Casey Reibelt was hit by a Chinese shot on goal while standing in the penalty area.   As I watched her prepare for a dropped ball to China just outside the penalty area, my brain was telling me that was not the correct restart; because the contact was in the penalty area, the restart is a dropped ball to the goalkeeper.  Apparently somebody was saying the same thing to Reibelt, as she realized her mistake in time.  The relevant language is:

The ball is dropped for the defending team goalkeeper in their penalty area if, when play was stopped:

• the ball was in the penalty area or

• the last touch of the ball was in the penalty area

In all other cases, the referee drops the ball for one player of the team that last touched the ball at the position where it last touched a player, an outside agent or, as outlined in Law 9.1, a match official

Seems a bit unfair that I take a shot on goal, it hits the referee in the penalty area and the restart is a dropped ball to their goalkeeper.  

Speaking of unfair, in checking on the rule, I found something that I did not know.  If the ball hits a match official and goes into touch or across a goal line, the restart is not a dropped ball but whatever the restart would have been had the ball not hit the referee.  The rule is very clear:

The ball is out of play when:

• - it has wholly passed over the goal line or touchline on the ground or in the air

• - play has been stopped by the referee

• - it touches a match official, remains on the field of play and:

  • a team starts a promising attack or

  • the ball goes directly into the goal or

  • the team in possession of the ball changes

      In all these cases, play is restarted with a dropped ball.

Note the phrase "remains on the field of play."  This seems odd to me that if a player on Team A kicks the ball and it hits the referee crosses into touch that the restart is a throw-in for Team B.  How is that not a change in possession due to the ball hitting a match official?  I went back to the explanation of the rule change in 2019 and there is nothing to indicate why it has to remain on the field for this provision to apply.  Seems like it leads to a change in possession because it hit the referee.  Fortunately, my job is just to apply the rules, not explain the logic.  

BTW, in the match, Lauren James had two goals, three assists and one goal ruled out for offside in the match.

The Round of 16

Here's the full schedule for the next round:

August 5 (1 a.m. ET): Switzerland v. Spain

August 5 (4 a.m. ET): Japan v. Norway

August 5 (10 p.m. ET): Netherlands v. South Africa

August 6 (5 a.m. ET): United States v. Sweden

August 7 (6:30 a.m. ET): Australia v. Denmark

August 7 (3:30 a.m. ET): England v. Nigeria

August 8 (4 a.m. ET): Colombia v. Jamaica

August 8 (7 a.m. ET): France v. Morocco

Every continent, well, except Antarctica, is represented.  

As you set your DVRs for these matches, don't forget to add 90 minutes to the end to allow for extra time and kicks from the spot as all these contests cannot end in a draw.  Nicely spaced out over four days, this shouldn't be too taxing; i.e., watching them all is nowhere near as hard as getting through the group stage.  

Match the Gaffer

The EPL kicks off next weekend (first game Friday at 3 pm featuring Man City and Burnley).  We are busy creating a compilation of predictions of the table.  In the meantime, here's an exercise to get you familiar with the managers in the top division.  See if you can match the gaffer with his club.

Union Advance

I only caught the end of the League's Cup match against DC Unitedmatch on WPEN.  This one was 0-0 in regulation and the format for this competition is that they directly to kicks from the spot.  The Union outlasted DC United 5-4 in six rounds of kicks.  Ironically, the only miss for the Union was by Daniel Gazdag.  With the win they advance to the Round of 16 and face the Red Bulls at Subaru Park on Monday.

Live or DVR?

Clearly the bracket makers had penciled in the US for first place in their group, which would have put them in the Saturday 10 pm time slot.  Instead, we get the 5 am kickoff time.  That is just late enough to make live viewing a possibility, even if it is several hours before my normal wake-up time.  This may depend on when I fall asleep Saturday night (cough cough Sunday morning).

We already know of one line-up change because Rose Lavelle is suspended for the match due to yellow card accumulation.  I read one suggestion of returning Ertz to the defensive midfield spot and use Kelley O'Hara on the back line.  This might be too much tinkering for Andonovski.

I'm going in with the view that Sweden are the favorite here but the betting odds have the US as a slim favorite.  I would be happy to be pleasantly surprised.