Get Your World Cup Match 3 Scenarios Right Here

We continue to watch way too much of this event.  The matches (32 so far) are starting to run together.  

How Many Countries in This Country Are We Going to Get Draws With?

Wales and England done, still need Scotland and Northern Ireland.  Oh well, maybe some other World Cup.

We'd have no points at this point without Matt Turner
Julio Cortez / Associated Press

Never has a team played so well to get a result that was so meaningless.  I know that sounds harsh and I don't mean to diminish the effort.  The 0-0 draw with England was one of the best performances we've seen from the USMNT at this level in a long time (WC quarterfinal vs Germany in 2002?).  The bad news is that with Iran beating Wales earlier in the day, the draw changed nothing; we still need to win on Tuesday or go home.

The match looked like a draw on TV and the stat sheet too.  This was a much better outing than we saw against Wales, although we have to say England didn't look like world beaters.

Head Butt Maneuvers

Frequent 6911 viewing guest Kathy S provided us with simplified language for the beautiful game.  Clarifying the strategic value of a corner kick she said, "so the key is that they get to execute one of those head butt maneuvers."  We all knew exactly what she meant.

Manic Monday (apologies to The Bangles)

Monday's results weren't necessarily according to form and have exponentially complicated the advancement scenarios for Groups E and F.  Japan fell to Costa Rica 0-1, washing out the easy road to the knockout rounds that they had seemingly laid out after the win over Germany.  Likewise, Belgium were upset by Morocco 0-2 (looking old and tired in the process) and instead of relaxing for the third match now see their odds of advancing down to 33%.   A goal by Germany in the 83 minute rescued a 1-1 draw with Spain and boosted their chances from 33% to 67%.  Even Canada got us excited, if only for a little while, with an early goal against Croatia; that didn't last and our northern neighbors got bounced out of the tournament with a 1-4 loss.

It's Over (apologies to Boz Scaggs)

Anthony Taylor is getting reamed on the internet for allegedly cheating South Korea out of a corner at the end of their match with Ghana.  He had called for a minimum of 10 minutes of stoppage time.  At about 10:50, South Korea took a shot that deflected off a Ghanaian and went over the goal line.  Rather than awarding a corner, Taylor blew the whistle for full time.  Cue the outrage.  Even Landon Donovan spoke about the unwritten rule that you allow the team to take that corner.

Except that's not how it works.  It is true that often you'll see the referee allow a corner after the minimum amount of stoppage time has elapsed.  But that's a situation where the referee has added time to the minimum amount to account for additional time wasting that may have occurred in stoppage time.  For example, if a referee says there's a minimum of five minutes stoppage time but has added another 30 seconds, a corner that occurs at 5:15 is before the game is over and will be allowed, even if if that will take the game past 5:30.  A ball that goes across the goal line at 5:31 is after the match is over and the corner shouldn't be given.  This article seemed like one of the more measured assessments of the incident.  The money quote from Dean Ashton:

“Ultimately, you’ve had 12 corners! You’ve had about 55 crosses, if you haven’t scored by that point, I’m sorry the time had elapsed, it was up to the referee and that’s just the way it goes.”

Exactly, the manager goes ballistic and gets himself a suspension for third match over that call?  BFS Officiating Rule #1 - The referee did not cost you the game.

So Many Highlights

Lots of great viewing so far and we could pick any number of goals to highlight.  One is standing out right now, more for its context than anything else, though it was a good strike on its own.  Recall that Argentina lost their opener and faced Mexico in the second game.  That match was scoreless well into the second half and a draw would have left them last in the group and likely needing a win over Poland in the final match to advance.  Enter Lionel Messi.  We make his goal in the 64th minute this week's YouTubeableMoment. It almost looks like he scuffed it just a touch but the placement is perfect.  The tally sent Argentina on their way to a 2-0 win and made their path to the knockout stage less treacherous.

That Is A Violation

You can see the matches from these seats

Speaking of 6911, we continue to flaunt the rules by consuming alcohol - ONSITE - during the contests.  See the photo (right) that somehow eluded the Supreme Committee's censors.  Also note that the viewing audience includes a cat (Ollie) and a dog (Kaya).  No animals were harmed in the viewing of these matches.

Last Day of Group Stage Play

So we are onto the final matches in the group stage. Match 3 scheduling is different in that both matches within a group are at the same time to minimize tomfoolery.  We go back to a 2018 BFS post to explain what happens:

Maybe you can have it all

After 11 days of absolutely no overlap in any of the matches, we now may be faced with some hard choices about what to watch.  That's because the final matches for each group are played simultaneously.  Why?  If matches are not at the same time, teams playing later may know exactly what result would allow both to advance.   But surely pride, etc., etc., would keep teams from doing this.  Except maybe not; I give you Germany and Austria in 1982.

 In some cases the choices won't be too difficult but not always.  And, of course, there's always the Michael B dual screen technology approach, demonstrated in the photo at left.  If that's not an option, we offer our opinion on each group stage finale below.

Okay, so let's dive into the 2022 situation.  The scenarios of who needs what to advance can get quite complicated, sometimes involving goal differentials or even the number of yellow cards a team got in group stage.  ESPN has the very detailed explanation here.  We offer highlights and match recommendations below. 

Group A

Netherlands - in with a win or draw versus Qatar or with a Senegal loss to Ecuador

Ecuador - in with a win or draw over Senegal

Senegal - in with win over Ecuador

Qatar - buh-bye

Recommendation:  Ecuador - Senegal at 10 am on Tuesday

Group B

England - in unless they lose to Wales by more than six goals

Iran - in with win over US; draw is good enough if Wales don't beat England

US - in with win over Iran

Wales - in with miracle six goal win over England AND US-Iran draw

Recommendation: Iran - US at 2 pm on Tuesday

Group C

Not enough space to fully review the scenarios.

Poland - in with win or draw versus Argentina; could advance with a loss but complicated

Argentina - in with win over Poland; could advance with draw if Mexico win or draw but tiebreakers could be involved

Saudi Arabia - in with win over Mexico; could advance with draw but complicated

Mexico - in with four-goal win over Saudi Arabia; anything else is complicated

Recommendation: Set up two TV or computer screens at 2 pm on Wednesday

Group D

France - already in

Australia - in with win over Denmark; also in with draw IF Tunisia don't beat France

Denmark - must beat Australia and hope Tunisia lose or draw with France; could still advance even if Tunisia win but would depend on tiebreakers

Tunisia - must beat France and have Australia/Denmark draw; could advance even if Denmark win but  it's complicated

Note that the sixth tiebreaker - fair play points - could come into play in this group.  

Recommendation: Australia - Denmark Wednesday at 10 am

Group E

Spain - in with win or draw over Japan; could advance with loss but it's complicated

Japan - in with win over Spain; can advance with draw but it's complicated

Costa Rica - in with win over Germany; can advance with draw but it's complicated

Germany - must beat Costa Rica AND have Japan lose to Spain; there are some additional possibilities but they are complicated

Recommendation: Costa Rica - Germany Thursday at 2 pm (warning: could be a blow-out)

Group F

Croatia - in with win or draw over Belgium; can advance with loss with certain tie breakers

Morocco -  in with win or draw over Canada; can even advance with loss but it's complicated

Belgium - in with win over Croatia; can advance with draw if Canada beat Morocco but it's complicated

Canada - heading north for the winter

Recommendation: Croatia - Belgium Thursday at 10 am

Group G

Brazil - in

Switzerland - in with win over Serbia; in with draw and Cameroon loss or draw; still could advance with loss and Cameroon win but it's complicated 

Cameroon - in with win over Brazil AND Switzerland loss and some other stuff too

Serbia - in with win over Switzerland AND Brazil win; could advance with win and Cameroon win but requires other stuff too

Recommendation: Serbia - Switzerland Friday at 2 pm

Group H

Portugal - in 

Ghana - in with win over Uruguay; draw and Portugal win or draw also good enough; draw and South Korea win requires a bunch of other things

Uruguay - in with win over Ghana

South Korea - in with win over Portugal AND Uruguay win/draw AND a bunch of other things

Recommendation:  Ghana - Uruguay Friday at 10 am

At least there are no more 5 am matches.

We Are Entertained

Sixteen matches played.  One quarter of the tournament is in the books.  A little overwhelmed here at BFS so we'll revert to our old standby - lots of random observations.

Gareth Bane Bale Again

Not him again

Twice this month the Welshman has messed with this soccer fan's rooting interest.  Less than three weeks ago he was scoring the tying goal late in stoppage time to foil the Union's hopes of winning the MLS Cup.  On Monday, there he was again, drawing a foul in the box and converting the subsequent PK to help Wales grab a draw with the US.  To be honest, a draw probably was a fair result here.  Don't be fooled by the US possession advantage of 59/41.  Shots were 4/3 and shots on target were 1/3.  Expected goals was 1.05 -1.28; the PK is worth .79 so xG from open play was 1.05 - .49.  

The US did move the ball well in the first half and generated a couple of good scoring chances.  But a lot of the possession was wasted on crosses that were blocked or intercepted; Dennis notes we are not exactly the tallest team up front.  The goal was awesome link up play between Sargent, Pulisic and Weah.  Check out Pulisic's through ball on this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Unfortunately they needed more moments like that; they played okay, but certainly not great.  

The gnashing of teeth that the US didn't get the win is likely because we had the lead.  Looking at 538, the US chances of making it out of the group stage did fall a little, from 53 to 45.  Yes, life would be easier if they had won.  But they were only slight favorites going in.  For me the key here was to not lose this match to keep the other matches meaningful.  Was there a scenario that got them through that didn't involve beating Iran?  I'll admit that the bad news here is that the draw with Wales means they could get tripped up by the various tiebreakers.  That is, we could both lose to England and both beat Iran, which would mean advancement would come down to goal differentials.

Broken Promises

This has been a World Cup of controversy.  Plenty of issues to discuss.  I'm not interested in defending Qatar for a host of bad things they've done.  But there is a bit of throwing stones by people who live in glass houses.  Seems like a significant portion of the US population would be more than happy to impose Qatari-like prohibitions on the LGBTQ population here.  France bans the full Islamic veil in public places.  Not saying we shouldn't press Qatar but maybe save some of the outrage to make things better on the home front.

Supreme Committee Chairman?

That said, FIFA is caving in with regularity to the Qatar Supreme Committee for Legacy and Delivery, the organization responsible for World Cup preparations.  After more than a decade of promises that alcohol would be available in the stadiums, there was a last minute reversal on that.  Infantino (FIFA head) offered a defense along the lines of you can't drink beer at your seat in England (true, but you can drink it in the concourses) and maybe going three hours without beer at your seat isn't awful.  He of course misses the point that it's not either of those things but reneging on agreements that were presumably part of why Qatar was allowed to host the event in the first place.  Same for allowing Jews to pray in public and threatening to issue yellow cards to players wearing rainbow armbands.

For the record, there has been drinking during the matches here at 6911.  I had pictures to post but some guy from FIFA confiscated my phone.

DVR Alert

One of the directives from FIFA to referees for this tournament was for them to be sticklers about stoppage time to make sure we're getting a full 90 minutes of soccer.  This has led to some big numbers, often exceeding five minutes in the second half.  There were a few telecasts that went over two hours.  So, if you are DVRing this stuff, remember to add at least 15 minutes to the ending time for group stage matches.  When we get to the knockout phase, 90 minutes may be the recommended dosage.

I would be thrilled to see the FA include a similar instruction for EPL matches.  I suspect the numbers would be even larger than we're seeing at the World Cup because there's more shithousery.  It would be good for people to see just how much time wasting is really going on.

Data.  We Want More Data

We are seeing a new possession stat that includes "in contest" as a third option.  Courtesy of The Athletic, here's what "in contest" includes:  

Firstly and pretty obviously, when two players are competing for the ball, whether in the air or on the ground, that is considered in-contest.

Secondly, when a defender clears a ball from its intended target. It will not be considered in possession of either team until it has been retrieved by the opposing defence or by an attacker.

Similarly, if a defender makes a block or interception but is not in total control of the ball, it will be considered in-contest.

A goalkeeper parrying the ball away from goal when making a save will also be considered in-contest until it is recovered by either of the teams, at which point a player will have to make a second touch, a pass or any other ‘in-control’ action for the ball to be considered in the possession of their team.

Maybe after the group stage, when we have 48 games to work with, I'll see what the differences are between the two metrics.

Second, the World Cup sees the introduction of the most technologically advanced ball ever.  Details are here.  In short, we could be looking at an explosion in the data available to analyze the game.

Biggest Upset

So you didn't get up at 5 am to see Argentina - Saudi Arabia, thinking you'd see the score when you got up and realize you didn't miss anything.  Wrong offside trap breath.  The Saudis kept an incredibly disciplined back line that led to Argentina being flagged for offsides 10 times, including three that chalked off goals at 22, 28 and 34 minutes.  The Saudis grabbed two early second half goals and held on for an incredible 2-1 upset.  

Martinez offside by inches

Some of the offside calls were incredibly tight.  The semi-automated technology that is now in use provides pretty cool pictures.  Check out the picture (left) on the Martinez call at 34 minutes.  I found the picture for the disallowed goal at 22 minutes and that one was very clear.  I can't find the shot for the call at 28 minutes.  Whoops, and there's some controversy about that one.  There's a story and a picture making the rounds that purport to show that the technology looked at the wrong defender.  This article includes the point I want to make.  You can see the lines drawn on the two different defenders and you can see the VAR picture.  The initial conclusion would be that maybe this wasn't offside.  Here's the problem though.  The VAR picture they show is the play at 34 minutes, not 28 minutes.  Maybe there was a mistake here but until I see the VAR picture from the call at 28 minutes, I'm skeptical that this was a huge error. 

You Can Lead a Ref to VAR But You Can't Make Him Use It

Before delving into the controversial calls in the Belgium Canada match, recall that the BFS's first rule of officiating is that the referee never costs you a match.  If you look carefully, you'll find enough failures of your own that explain the result.  No doubt Canada feel hard done by two calls in the 0-1 loss.  But they missed the PK that was called, took 22 shots but only three were on target and had expected goals of 2.45.  Sounds like somebody needs finishing school.

Of course, that doesn't mean there weren't refereeing mistakes.  We'll take the "easier" one first. At 38 minutes, Laren fell under pressure from Witsel.  I could not find a good video of the incident.  Notably, the Fox highlights package doesn't include either of the calls.  Real time I didn't think it was a foul.  That opinion held through the first look on replay - it didn't look like a push to me.  But then I did notice that Witsel might have actually tripped Laryea.  Hard to say for sure.  Sikazwe didn't call it, and VAR did not instruct him to take another look.  Sounds like proper procedure was followed; that this was not a clear and obvious error does not seem like, well, a clear and obvious error.  Finding some measure of support for that view on the web.

The second incident has more moving parts and some possible procedural issues.  At 13 minutes, Buchanan received the ball in an offside position.  The AR raised the flag but before Sikazwe blew his whistle, Vertonghen nicked the ball away and  caught Buchanan on the foot as he landed.   You can see the play here. That there was at least one error here is clear - Buchanan received the ball on a back pass from Hazard, not from a teammate.  Therefore, there can be no offside infraction.  What transpires from there is not clear.  Did the VAR crew believe that the whistle was blown before the foul?  If yes, then they would think that VAR cannot intervene.  Problem is that video/audio shows the whistle came afterward.  A second possibility is that they reviewed it and concluded the offside call was correct.  That seems impossible.  The third possibility is that they reviewed it and concluded that not calling a foul on Vertonghen was not a clear and obvious error.  Possible but the video leaves little doubt that Vertonghen tripped Buchanan.  I went back to the DVR to see that the restart was a free kick for Belgium.  But Sikawze did not have his arm in the air signifying an indirect free kick, which is the proper restart after an offside call.  Probably just another error in this whole sequence.  I still think option one is what played out.  In short, a clusterf big screw up that hasn't really been cleared up as of Thursday night.

Uh, Maybe Use a Different Metaphor

Nice hair

As Hannibal Mejbri came on for Tunisia, the Fox announcer said he's the kind of player who wears his heart on his sleeve.  Dennis suggested that with the name Hannibal, that was probably an inappropriate metaphor.  Also, Hannibal is an early contender for Best Hair of the Tournament.

Job Security

Ferran Torres of Spain is dating Sira Martinez, daughter of Spanish manager Luis Enrique. 

Other Random Stuff

- Sure Argentina lost and Germany fell 1-2 to Japan.  Many of other favorites cruised, with England besting Iran 6-2, France beating Australia 4-1, Spain pasting Costa Rica 7-0 and Brazil eventually taking care of Serbia 2-0.

- Very happy to see Olivier Giroud score two for France, tying him with Thierry Henry for most goals scored for France; check out this article in The Athletic asking why is he still underappreciated

- Four 0-0 draws so far but they were still entertaining

- Though the BFS Match 1 recommendations were decent matches, you might have done better with other choices.  The US-Wales contest was good and I'll stand by the Uruguay - South Korea choice (fierce like a derby) but Argentina - Saudi Arabia was clearly your best choice for Tuesday and Germany-Japan for Wednesday

Shameless Cross Promotion

In my second job, moonlighting for FanHubTF, I did this piece on the similarities between false starts and offside.

Something to be Thankful For

Newcastle announced that they are not interested in signing Ronaldo, who's contract with Man United was mutually terminated this week.  There had been some articles linking him with Newcastle and I was getting nervous we would do something stupid.  As Dennis put it, "let's take a 3rd place team that has no problem scoring even with two of it's best attackers out injured and has great chemistry, and introduce an aging spectacle who will destroy the locker room."  What he said. 

Group Stage Match 2 Picks

Friday - England US at 2 pm

Saturday - Argentina Mexico at 2 pm

Sunday - Spain Germany at 2 pm

Monday - Portugal Uruguay at 2 pm

It's mere coincidence they are all at 2 pm.  I might have recommended France - Denmark on Friday but Germany's loss to Japan means that the Spain-Germany match isn't merely about who will be 1-2 in group.  Same for Croatia -Canada on Saturday; Argentina's loss makes the match with Mexico more interesting

I was going to do Match 3 recommendations but that's really hard to do without knowing the Match 2 results.  Hoping I can do at least a short post for Tuesday morning to discuss scenarios for advancement to the knockout rounds.

It's Show Time

EPL is done until after Christmas but World Cup starts Sunday.  

We'll Be Third For Christmas

Newcastle - Chelsea seemed like such a promising match up but in practice was mostly a bore.  In fact, some Magpie shithousery at the end took a bit of luster off Newcastle's 1-0 win.  Well, maybe only a little as the win put Chelsea nine points in the rear view mirror.  

Not a miracle but this Pope is about to make a key save

Not much offense on display as Newcastle had three shots on target, Chelsea just two; xG was 1.4 -.45 in favor of the Magpies.  The only goal came on a rocket by Joe Willock from the top of the box.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment; check out the "heady" play by Almiron to set it up.  If I remember right, Pope had made a big save on Gallagher just minutes before the goal but for the most part, Newcastle kept Chelsea in check.  

As I mentioned, there was shithousery at the end that was not pretty, including three yellows in stoppage time.  Pope's was run-of-the-mill keeper delay on a goal kick, pretty standard game management stuff late in a 1-0 match.  Longstaff's for kicking the ball away was less cool.  Easily the most shithouseryest was Lascelles interfering with a throw-in as he was warming up on the touch line. Not pleased to see the latter two, especially Lascelles, and hope it doesn't become a permanent feature of the team.

Certainly too soon to be dreaming of Champions League but certainly happy with the performance so far - especially considering they've been without their two supposedly key offensive players Saint-Maximin and Isak.  

Wrong (Again)

So there was no Saturday morning massacre as Man City took on Brentford.  Far from it.  Even though City played the match with the full 11 - one of them being Haaland - they struggled with the visiting Bees.  An early goal by Toney was matched by a first half stoppage time score from Foden.  It stayed 1-1 until the 98th minute when Toney got his second.  Brentford almost added a third after that but they came away with the 2-1 win.  For Newcastle fans, it means that we go into the World Cup break just one point behind City.

We also missed the boat on Tottenham-Leeds, which we dismissed in favor of two other choices but turned out to be the best match of the weekend.  Spurs rallied from a goal deficit three times before finally taking a 4-3 lead in the 83rd minute.  Highlights can be had here.  The win means that Spurs sit 4th in the table despite never seeming to be able to put 90 minutes together.  

My impression about Spurs being a second half team is backed by the numbers.  They have just 10 first half goals compared to 21 in the second half.  Defensively, they've allowed 12 in the first half but just 9 in the second.  Their point total at half time would be a mediocre 20 compared to the 29 at fulltime.  Seems like more than dumb luck; Conte is able to do something at half time - tactical adjustments, subs, team talk.   To be in fourth while not really looking all that great might be comforting and frustrating at the same time.

Amtrak Wifi Sucks

Facing a 6 hour train ride to NH on Sunday I took comfort that I'd be able to stream the end of the Brighton - Aston Villa match, then take in all of the Fulham - Man United fixture.  Wrong buffering breath.  The coverage was choppy and I kept losing the connection.  I made it through the first one to see Villa grab a scrappy and important 2-1 win over Brighton on two goals by Danny Ings.  I gave up the second match so I didn't see Man United's stoppage time goal that denied Fulham a draw against a giant for the second week in a row.  

Pedigree in the Relegation Zone

Going into the World Cup break, the bottom of the table looks like this:

16 - West Ham (14 pts)

17 - Everton (14 pts)

18 - Nottingham Forest (13 pts)

19 - Southampton (12 pts)

20 - Wolves (10 pts)

There are some blue bloods on that list.  Southampton have only spent 5 of the last 50 seasons outside the top tier, West Ham just three.  Everton haven't been outside the first division since the 1953-54 season.  Going back to their start in 1887, I found they've only spent four seasons (1930-31, 1951-52, 52-53 and 53 54) in the second tier.  Certainly there's a long way to go but it would be a relegation of epic proportions. 

Football for Thanksgiving

Just not the kind Americans are used to.  Start at 5 am with Switzerland - Cameroon, 8 am Uruguay - South Korea (this critic's choice), 11 am Portugal - Ghana and closing at 2 pm with Brazil - Serbia. Of course, the whole things starts this Sunday at 11 am with host nation Qatar playing Ecuador.  I haven't checked it all yet but looks like every match will be on Fox or FS1.

The USMNT have their first match at 2 pm on Monday versus Wales.  I was a little surprised to see that 538 has us at 45/26/29 - a 45% chance of win and 29% chance of a draw.  

Speaking of 538, you can see their entire set of predictions here.  Again, a bit surprised to see the USA with a 53% chance of making it out of group stage.  Clearly, I must think more of the Wales side than they do.  

Every World Cup has been won by a European or South American country.  Looking at the 538 numbers, there doesn't seem to be much chance that will change.  The only countries not from those two continents given a measurable chance of winning at 538 are US, Mexico, Morocco and Senegal and those countries are given all of a 1% chance.

After further review, I'm letting my recommendations for the first group stage matches from last week stand:

11/20  Qatar - Ecuador 11 am (it's your only choice)

11/21 US - Wales 2 pm

11/22 Mexico - Poland 11 pm

11/23 Morocco - Croatia 5 am

11/24 Uruguay - South Korea 8 am  (gotta be better than any parade)

Hope to make a post on Black Friday to review the first group stage matches. 

Missed It By That Much

Apologies to Maxwell Smart 

via GIPHY

Late in the MLS Cup final (100 minutes maybe?) with the score 2-2, BFS Keeper Consultant Graham R and I agreed that regardless of the result, the Union had acquitted themselves well. They had rallied from 0-1 and 1-2 to take the match into extra time.  The second time was a clutch header from Jack Elliott, seen here, in the 85th minute.

Extra time was crazy.  In the 110th minute, LAFC keeper Maxime Crepeau made challenge on Cory Burke that left both players down.  Crepeau suffered a serious injury and had to be stretchered off the field with a broken leg.  Burke continued on but later had to be subbed out.  At first referee Ismail Elfath initially showed Crepeau a yellow card (a breach of referee etiquette there as he flashed yellow at Crepeau while he was frantically signaling for the physio).  There was no way this wasn't red for DOGSO and eventually Elfath got it right.  Ironically, the LAFC replacement was John McCarthy, the LaSalle grad who had been Blake's back up for several years.

Ruing what could have been (photo Stephen Speer)

Things got crazier in the 124th minute (9 minutes of stoppage time because of the injury) when Jack Elliot put the Union up 3-2.  This was not a pretty play but we still make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The Union are up 3-2 with about five minutes of stoppage time left.  The bad news was that all earlier statements about just being happy that we made it a real contest became null and void.  Thus, it was daggers when Gareth Bale leveled things again at 120+8 minutes.  Sure we were going to kicks from the spot but somehow the moment seemed like it was gone.  And it was.  The U missed three consecutive so when Sanchez buried his kick in the fourth round, LAFC won.  Try as I might, I can't go back to the feeling I had at 100 minutes.  We were champions for five minutes and then it was gone.  Damn, it is the hope that kills you.

To be sure, the Union had played tough, but not great.  Give aways and sloppy fouls were an issue again.  There is a silver lining though.  This is not a team that needs to be torn apart and rebuilt to win a championship.  Further good news is that except for Blake and Bedoya, they are all under 30.  That doesn't mean there won't be replacements.  We'll probably read soon that both Wagner and Mbaizo have left for Europe.  Paxten Aaronson is also set to follow in his brother's footsteps; though he didn't feature as much as we might have expected, he was likely to play a key role going forward. 

There is also some measure of satisfaction in reading that many feel it was the best MLS Cup Final of all time and that it was the most watched final in 20+ years.  Small consolation but it is something.

Does This Say Philly Sports or What?

In the space of 7 hours and 13 minutes on Saturday night, Philadelphia lost two championships - the MLS Cup and the World Series.

Fine Side Tyneside

Joe Willock slips the third goal past Gavin Bazunu

I forget which Peacock announcer coined that phrase as Newcastle were heading towards their fourth straight win, a seemingly easy 4-1 win over Southampton.  Certainly the finishing was high quality with four different Magpies - Almiron (again!), Wood (finally!) , Willock and Guimaraes - getting on the board.  But Newcastle also benefitted from the Saints not taking advantage of their opportunities; I recall Southampton missing several wide open chances.  The stats reveal how deceptive the margin of victory was.  Newcastle were outpossessed 45-55, outshot 7-16, and had fewer shots on target (4-5).  Most telling was xG, with Southampton taking a 1.6-1.1 edge there too.  Of course, you could just say Newcastle were simply more clinical in their finishing and deserved the win.  And mostly I believe that but they also need to be careful not to read their press clippings too closely.

Third in the table?  That can't be right.

Like Good Vinyl?

The highest compliment you could make about an LP (go ask your parents) was that you could drop the needle anywhere on the record and you'd like what you heard.  We can say the same about the five matches in Saturday's 11 am time slot.  You could have picked any one of them and seen an interesting contest.  I was going to say you wouldn't be disappointed but that might depend on your rooting interests.  All five were in doubt until late and in four, the decisive goal came at 83, 84, 95 and 96 minutes.  We discuss Man City - Fulham below.  Nottingham Forest were the beneficiaries of an own goal in the the 96th minute to snatch a 2-2 draw with Brentford.  Leeds finished off an unlikely comeback from a 1-3 deficit to Bournemouth with a goal in the 84th minute to grab a 4-3 win.  Given how tight the standings are Leeds get to 12th while consigning Bournemouth to 17th.  Wolves and Brighton had a fun back and forth contest but the Seagulls prevailed 3-2 on a goal at 83 minutes from Pascal Gross; Brighton's run continues while Wolves are stuck in 19th.  

Speaking of how compressed the table is, Everton had a chance to put some distance between them and the relegation zone but were outplayed by Leicester in a 0-2 loss.  So now both sides are at 14 points -  with Leicester slipping ahead on goal differential - just two points outside the relegation zone.

 

Playing With One Haaland Tied Behind Their Back

Man City started the match against Fulham with scoring phenom Erling Haaland on the bench.  Then Cancelo got sent off for DOGSO.  Perfect.  PK converted and it's 1-1.  Now we can have an even match.  Except even down a man this was one-sided in just about every respect but the score.  Even the eventual appearance of Haaland didn't tip the balance and we rolled into stoppage time level.  Then DeBruyne made an absolute meal of the slightest of touches by Antonee Robinson in the box.  You can see the play here; we are largely KDB fans but that performance is Oscar-worthy.  Of course Haaland converted the PK for a 2-1 final.  

A Second New Manager Bounce

Apparently you get an interim manager bounce and a permanent manager bounce.  In his first match in charge, Unai Emery saw Aston Villa dispatch Man United 3-1.  The match looks closer on the stat sheet but Man United's only tally was an own goal from Ramsey.  Note, that he corrected his mistake with one for the proper side a few minutes later.  There must be a name for a brace that includes one for each side.  

The contest turned a MMA demonstration when Lisandro Martinez took two bites at the cherry, as they say over there, elbowing Leon Bailey twice in the same play.  You can see the incident here. The first contact was clearly the more forceful one and probably a foul but how do you let a deliberate elbow like the second one go?  Martinez somewhat despairs that his nickname is the "Butcher of Amsterdam."  Others point out he only had four yellows last year at Ajax.  Well, with refereeing that lenient, of course he'll only get four yellows in a season.  Also, note the rematch between the two (Villa and Man United played each other in Carabao Cup action on Thursday) was more of a professional wresting contest.  Hysterically, only Bailey got a yellow in the rematch.

Selective Memory?

I remember very little from the feature match of the week, the London derby that saw Arsenal best Chelsea 1-0.  The 7 am start may be partly to blame.  The stat sheet offers another clue - Arsenal had all of two shots on target, Chelsea just one.  

In the other big match, I remember Spurs falling behind Liverpool distressingly easy - again - before staging a furious second half comeback that barely fell short.  The final was 2-1 in favor of Liverpool but a draw would have been a fair result here.  Actually xG suggests Tottenham might have been the better side.  

I have no memory of Crystal Palace beating West Ham 2-1 but that's because I didn't see it.  Too bad, because that was another decided late in stoppage time.   

A Brief Note About the Carabao Cup

Newcastle are still in it. They play Bournemouth in the next round.

Old Business

Football is life and it's the lack of hope that kills you

I neglected to post my favorite Halloween costumes of 2022.  Michael B and Susan C went to a Halloween party as Dani Rojas and Ted Lasso.  

Last Gasp Before World Cup

This weekend is the last EPL match week until after Christmas.  Feature match of the weekend, wait this can't be right, is Newcastle hosting Chelsea Saturday at 12:30 on NBC.  Looking at 538, wait this can't be right either, they have the match at 41/34/25.  So the Magpies are prohibitive favorites?  I do expect an interesting match as Newcastle have seemingly discarded their old practice of parking the bus against powerhouses.  A win?  Not so sure about that.

Back to a crowded 10 am Saturday fixture list.  USA grabbed Liverpool - Southampton but that doesn't look too competitive.  I'd be more likely to go with Bournemouth vs Everton - two teams closely matched that are way closer to the relegation zone than they would like.  Or, maybe go with West Ham- Leicester for basically the same reason.  Your other choices are Nottingham Forest - Crystal Palace or Spurs hosting Leeds.  Crystal Palace have been tough this year.  Despite Tottenham's inconsistent form, hard to see them struggling against Leeds.  

For those who like their massacres early, you can get up to see Man City host Brentford Saturday at 7:30 on USA; 538 has that one at 85/5/11.  Yikes. There's also a bonus Saturday game on USA at 2:45 with Arsenal on the road to face Wolves; given that is 1st vs 19th, not holding my breath for a tight one there.

The Sunday schedule is light as we have Brighton - Aston Villa at 9 and Fulham - Man United at 11:30.  Both are on USA.  Enjoy them as that will be your last taste of EPL until Boxing Day.  

Speaking of the World Cup

Of course, the lack of EPL football will be more than made up for by a crowded World Cup schedule.  The group stage features 48 matches between 11/20 and 12/2, with four on most days at 5 am, 8 am, 11 am and 2 pm.  Aware of the growing US market and taking advantage of the time differential,  all the USMNT group stage matches are  at 2 pm.  They include Wales (11/21), England (11/25) and Iran (11/29).

There is no lack of preview material on the web.  I liked this one from Yahoo because of its format and the fact that it's written by Chestnut Hill YSC graduate Henry Bushnell.  This one from SBNation

was a good read as well.  We'll turn to Henry again for his thoughts on the USMNT roster.  

I humbly offer my recommendations for Match Day 1 matches of the group stage for those with limited viewing windows: 

11/20  Qatar - Ecuador 11 am (it's your only choice)

11/21 US - Wales 2 pm

11/22 Mexico - Poland 11 pm

11/23 Morocco - Croatia 5 am

11/24 Uruguay - South Korea 8 am  (gotta be better than any parade)

I was going to do all the group stage days but upsets can change which are the key contests so we'll add those in subsequent posts.

The World Cup does give a different look to the holiday season.  

Wow

Must be an awesome weekend when a 4-0 Newcastle win is the second best result.  Indeed it was, as the Union roared back from 0-1 to send NYCFC up the turnpike with a 3-1 win for the Eastern Conference title.

Not Even Our Best?

There was an early tell in the Eastern Conference final.  NYCFC keeper Seth Johnson dawdled over the first goal kick in the opening minutes.  Really?  This was not an isolated incident.  They were playing for a penalty shoot out from the start? Maybe not, but they clearly wanted to slow the match down.  And it worked for a while but it was not a winning strategy.   The first half was choppy with maybe just a slight advantage to the Union, which didn't even show up in the stats.  The U seemed to lose the plot in the opening minutes of the second half.  Worse, they fell behind at 57 minutes when Maxi Moralez snuck one past several defenders and Blake.  

Three minutes later, Blake made his most MVPest save of the year, stopping Alex Callens' shot from close range; 0-2 at that point would have been a long way back.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment (should open to the right spot but go to 3:26 if it doesn't); sure the goals were important but they probably don't happen with out this save.

A Cory Burke ending

The introduction of Cory Burke at 62 minutes proved to be the other key moment of the game.  He changed the dynamic and shortly thereafter the U broke through on a quick free kick from Glesnes over the NYCFC defense that Carranza ran onto and put past Johnson for the equalizer.  Open the floodgates.  Two short minutes later Carranza headed a long cross from McGlynn to the breaking (and barely onside) Gazdag, who headed it in for the lead.  Feeling much better but not home yet, we were more than thrilled when Burke, largely on individual effort put one into the roof of the net at 76 minutes.  Blake took a page from Seth Johnson's playbook in the final 15 or so minutes, taking his sweet time over every goal kick and the Union managed the clock well to bring home the win.

Several notable things about the 3-1 final.  First, this reminded me and Dennis of the old Union, where we would be outpossessed (35/65 this time) and would score on blistering counters as opposed to incredible work in the final third by Gazdag/Carranza/Uhre.  Second, Uhre wasn't much of a factor.  Third, our passing percentage was a distressing 67.6%.  Fourth, Bedoya did start but only made it through the first half.  He spent most of the time behind Mbaizo on the right wing.  (An interesting sight was seeing him limp up the stage to raise the trophy in the post-game celebration - he is questionable for the final.)   In other words, this was not the Union's best.  On the flip side, xG was 1.7 - .6 in favor of the Union; that means NYCFC could not convert that possession into dangerous shots.    

In the other conference final, LAFC was never really at risk of not advancing as they rolled past Austin 3-0.  The U are decided underdogs for this final; 538 has this 64/36 for LA. That seems a bit harsh but the match is at Banc of California Stadium.  They were 13-2-2 during the regular season and have added two post-season wins as well.  

No Parking for You

LAFC may have home field advantage but it won't translate into an easier trip to the stadium for their fans.  Because USC has a home football match, there will be no parking available for those attending the MLS Cup Final at Banc of California Stadium.  As detailed here, fans will have to take public transit or park at Dodger Stadium and take a shuttle.  

Newcastle Romp

Almiron again - scoring in this third straight

The BFS derby was not the contest we envisioned back in August.  The first half was tight, with
Newcastle only getting the advantage after a tough handling call on Ashley Young in stoppage time.  Things degenerated in the second half.  Goals at 56, 59 and 67 minutes put the game out of reach.  Even allowing that there was a bit of luck on some of those, Newcastle also hit the crossbar and the post so it actually could have been more.  Villa had just three shots, none on target.  

No improvement in the table for the Magpies off the win but it did put some room between them and the middle of the pack.

You Can't Go Home Again

Chelsea outscored Brighton 3-2 at the Amex but the problem for the Blues was that two of them were own goals.  As in, Brighton won, 4-1.  I did speed through this match but the score reflects what I saw; Brighton put Chelsea under pressure for much of the match.  Though there's often bad luck involved in own goals, there were balls that were put in such a dangerous position you felt the only likely result was the somebody from one team or the other would end up putting them in the net.  All in all, a very rude homecoming for Graham Potter.  

Wrong Again

Once again, contrary to our prediction, the top sides mostly did not cruise to victory. Well, Arsenal dispatched Nottingham 5-0.  Man City could only squeeze out a 1-0 win over Leicester.  Of course, they were giving away 1.65 goals as Haaland had to sit out with a foot injury.  Frankly, it didn't look all that close anyway.  Spurs conceded two for Bournemouth and spent the rest of the day overcoming that deficit.  They did, just, with a stoppage goal to rescue the 3-2 win.  As we mentioned above, Chelsea went down at Brighton.  And Liverpool continued to scuffle, falling to Leeds - at Anfield no less - 1-2.  Yikes, consecutive losses to Nottingham Forest and Leeds. What is up with the Reds?  

We didn't put West Ham - Man United in the "easy" category and the 1-0 win for the Red Devils was a pretty good watch.  A nifty heady from Marcus Rashford was the difference there.

Compressed Still

Other resuslts did little to relieve the compression in the table.  Draws in the Fulham - Everton (0-0) and Brentford - Wolves (1-1) matches kept things pretty tight.  Even Crystal Palace's 1-0 win over Southampton didn't give them much space.  Going into the weekend, the spread from 12-18th is just three points.  If not for the fact that Leeds and Bournemouth play, the wrong set of results elsewhere could have put Everton and West Ham in jeopardy of starting the weekend 12th and 13th and waking up in the relegation zone.  Further evidence of the compression?  The spread from 9th to 18th is just five points.  Or the spread from 9th to 20th is just seven points.  

BFS Swag

Be the first on your block to get one

BFS La Liga Correspondent Michael B has found that there is BFS swag to be had (see picture left).  This was news to us.  I had our warehouse guys searching for hours but they couldn't find any of these stickers.  So don't contact us.  Check in with Buckingham Friends School, maybe they have some.

When Reindeer Fly

Santa may have met his match

You've probably seen the Fox promo campaign for the World Cup featuring Jon Hamm as Santa
realizing the international sporting event will overlap the holiday season.  Hmm, so we are turning to the guy who can make reindeer fly to help the USMNT win the World Cup?  Actually, that makes sense.  They do seem like miracles of about the same order.

Fun Stuff

A London derby (one of the more serious ones) leads the fixture list this weekend.  Chelsea will host Arsenal at - wait, what? - 7 am on Sunday on USA.  At least we get an extra hour of sleep but damn that's early.  With the match at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea are probably slight favorites.  They cannot afford to lose this one; a loss would leave them 14 points behind the Gunners.

Despite recent form and their places in the table, we will still tune in with interest to Tottenham - Liverpool at 11:30 on Sunday on Peacock.  At 538, they have the match at 33/45/22.  Ouch, that's a smack at Spurs, especially with the match being in London.  I would not have been surprised with a close prediction but that says Liverpool are solid favorites.  

For intrigue and interest, we recommend Everton - Leicester, the feature match Saturday at 12:30 on NBC.  Both have underperformed so far.  Is Leicester going to make a bigger step away from the the relegation zone, dragging Everton into the mix?  This looks like a draw on paper.

Fulham - that's 7th place Fulham to you - may get a harsh dose of reality as they travel to the Etihad to face Man City.  Especially if as looks likely, Erling Haaland returns to the line up.  That is the USA match at 11 am Saturday.  Your Peacock choices for that time slot are Leeds - Bournemouth, Notthingham Forest - Brentford, or Wolves - Brighton.  I'll be out reffing so I'll probably be stuck with Man City - Fulham but would probably go with Wolves - Brighton if I wasn't stuck using the dvr.

Sunday at 9 am is also crowded with three matches sandwiched between the early London derby and the Spurs - Liverpool fixture.  Our choice is easy as Newcastle will travel to Saint Mary's to face Southampton; trying not to get too cocky but this should be at least a draw and really a win.  I wouldn't mind seeing West Ham vs Crystal Palace (on USA) or Aston Villa - Man United in Unai Emery's debut.

But these will all be overshadowed by the MLS Cup Final at 4 pm on Fox.  Glad to see the Union make it this far.

Doop