A Bump in the Road

 A pair of 1-0 losses slowed Newcastle's momentum, although their chance of staying up is largely unchanged.  The Union were a tad better and got another three points.

A Better Quality Bus

Havertz bursts Newcastle's bubble in the 89th minute

I was dismayed to see Newcastle come out in a 5-4-1 against Chelsea.  Parking the bus against the superior team.  And to be clear, defense was the Magpies' top priority here and it shows in the possession stats (27/73).  But there were two important differences from the Newcastle of a few months ago.  First, the defending was solid; Chelsea only took eight shots and didn't get one on target until very late in the match.  Second, Newcastle actually mounted some serious attacking threats.  Enough that Michael B kept texting me that he predicted a smash and grab win for the Magpies.  Unfortunately there was no fairy tale ending here, at least for Newcastle.  In the 89th minute, with a point in sight, Kai Havertz took a perfect pass from Jorginho, controlled it brilliantly with a single touch and flicked the ball past Dubravka for the game's only goal.  

Though they brought home no points, there were still positives to take away from the 0-1 loss.  They were minutes away from a draw on the road to third place Chelsea.  This with Eddie Howe somewhat shorthanded due to illness (Shelvey and Willock) and injuries (Joe L Linton out and Allan Saint-Maximin only available as a late substitute).  Matt Targett had another excellent performance and was probably the Magpies player; Dan Burn, though beaten by Havertz on the game winner was also solid in the back again.  Though a loss on the scoresheet, this was not a step in the wrong direction.  

We Didn't Deserve to Win Anyway

"I got the near post"

Maybe the 1-0 loss to Everton wasn't a step in the wrong direction but it felt like it.  After a wildly
entertaining first half that somehow ended 0-0, the second half became mostly a slugfest.  Newcastle got a pretty clear break when Allan was sent off for a yellow card challenge that Pawson decided was a red card.  The Magpies had some okay chances but it wasn't like they were knocking on the door. As the match proceeded into 14 minutes of stoppage time (a protestor zip tied himself to the goalpost to call attention to Britain's terrible energy policies - see picture right), I was very much feeling like let's call this a draw and go home.  But then Everton executed an excellent counter. leaving Newcastle to rue the missed chances.  I soon realized that I wasn't annoyed that they had lost but that they didn't deserve to win in the first place.  Not a devastating loss but a missed chance to end the relegation threat.  For Everton on the other hand, the three points were critical.  So important that Frank Lampard broke his hand celebrating the goal.  I am not making this up.  

When Do We Get Our Apology from PGMOL?

Other than the shirt pull and the trip, Chalobah's tackle was clean
Photo: BBC Match of the Day

You may recall a few weeks ago the outrage sparked when Rodri of Man City was not called for handling in the box.  In that one, PGMOL felt compelled to make an apology to Everton management. Well check out this play (should open to 4:03) in the Newcastle - Chelsea match.  Chalobah could have been called for tripping or holding Jacob Murphy but instead we got a corner kick.  Hmm, I guess two wrongs don't make a PK.  Real time I was skeptical about a foul but the replay was pretty clear.  Readers know that I don't pin results on referees' decisions.  Who knows, maybe Wood or whoever misses the PK.  Still, this looks at least as egregious as the Rodri non-call and I eagerly await the PGMOL phone call apologizing.  

Mixed Results

We are not quite done with scoreboard watching.  Newcastle did get some help from other clubs, although some of the "help" came from teams below us in the table.  For example, Brentford stung Burnley 2-0, a result that nearly has the Bees clear while putting the Clarets in more jeopardy.  Likewise, Leeds grabbed all three points at home with a stoppage time goal against Norwich; the Canaries had just leveled things in the 91st minute but were denied a result with Gelhardt's late goal.  Wolves also aided our cause with a 1-0 win over Everton.  Aside from the Leeds and Brentford wins, Watford also pinned back Southampton 2-1; 

The Title Race Tightens

Crystal Palace put up a brave effort against Man City at Selhurst Park and were rewarded with a 0-0 draw.  City might be said to have a type; there are certain sides they just seem to have trouble with.  They lost twice to Tottenham, drew twice with Southampton, drew once and lost once to Palace and drew with Liverpool.  No other teams have taken points from them.  

Liverpool took advantage with a workmanlike 2-0 win over Brighton on Saturday and a 2-0 win on Wednesday against Arsenal, closing the gap to just a single point.  The two sides have now played the same number of games played; Liverpool have a slight advantage on goal differential.  They meet on 4/10 at The Etihad.  At 538, City are slight favorites in that contest and are projected at 66% to win the title versus 34% for Liverpool.  Note however that this is the lowest that number has been since it was 56% back on 12/15/21.

Despite the loss to Liverpool, Arsenal hold onto the fourth spot thanks to a solid 2-0 win over Leicester on Sunday..  They remain a strong favorite to keep that spot even though they lead Man United by just one point.   Man United may have put an end to Tottenham's CL hopes with 3-2 win over Spurs.  That was a good watch for the neutrals, with Tottenham rallying twice from a goal behind.  Ultimately they were done in by the third of Ronaldo's hat trick.  Ouch.  West Ham kept their slim hopes alive with a 2-1 win over Aston Villa.  That one was also pretty good entertainment.  I thought maybe a draw was a fairer result; Dennis wasn't as sure.  Villa look to be the best "non-Europe" side in the league right now.  Given the rigors of playing in either the Europa League or the Europa Conference League, Dennis prefers it that way for this year.

A Different Kind of Visa Problem

We are used to football clubs (especially the Union) having trouble with visas, the immigration approval that allows players from one country to play in another country.  Chelsea have a slightly different issue, as detailed in this ESPN article.  Yes, their credit cards are frozen.  Cash reserves are sufficient right now to allow them to meet expenses but as the article notes, the situation is complicated.    

Hard to Be Mad

Sometimes a player does something that hurts your team but you look at the player and the situation and smile because it's okay.  I saw it twice this weekend.  First, we can't help but be happy to see Christian Eriksen's comeback continue as evidenced in this letter perfect cross to Ivan Toney to set up the go ahead goal late in Brentford's win over Burnley.  That result may be enough to ensure that the Bees will stay up in the Premier League. The second one is more geopolitical as Ukrainian Andriy Yarmolenko put West Ham up on Aston Villa with this marvelous touch and finish.  Would have preferred he do it against someone other than Villa but what an emotional moment.

A Half Step Up

Slight improvement for Union on a frozen night at Subaru Park.  Our new striker duo was not dressed with Carranza suspended and Uhre out with a quad injury.  Overall, the performance was a little better than what we saw against Montreal, especially on the passing and possession.  The good news is that they are still creating chances.  The bad news is that we are still having trouble finishing.  Fortunately San Jose are not one of the better sides but 2-0 is good enough right now.  

Cory Burke got the Union on the board in the 23rd minute, burying a pinpoint pass from Santos.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment, not so much as a stunning goal but more of example of how simple the game can be at times.  Great run from Santos to get deep in the box, and pass on the ground in front of the goal to the properly positioned Burke.  Easy peasy.  Wish there had been more of them.  The U did add a second in the 58th minute to make things less stressful when Gazdag cheekily converted a PK.  The defense was pretty close to airtight, as San Jose had but one shot on goal and an xG of .3.  

FA Cup and International Break

The breakneck pace of fixtures finally slows as the FA Cup quarterfinals truncate the weekend schedule and the international break shuts down domestic competition for two weeks.  Not that there still isn't plenty to watch.

The FA Cup quarters feature six Premier League and two Championship Division sides.  No true minnows left at this point.  The schedule:

Middlesbrough - Chelsea Saturday at 1:15
Crystal Palace - Everton Sunday at 8:30
Southampton - Man City Sunday 11:00
Nottingham Forest - Liverpool Sunday 2:00

Three of these teams are not like the others.  Didn't spend a lot of time digging but I think you need ESPN+ to watch.

Just four EPL contests but most are important in one way or another and on USA.  Friday afternoon football, our favorite, is back with Wolves hosting Leeds at 4 pm.  Wolves probably don't have shot at Champions League but are in the mix for other European leagues; Leeds are still perilously close to relegation.  Saturday has Aston Villa vs Arsenal at 8:30; the Gunners will be looking to solidify their hold on 4th but Villa have shown they can play with anyone even if they don't get a result.  Actually, Leicester - Brentford is dangerously close to both teams not having much to play for; that's at 10 on Sunday.  The weekend wraps up Tottenham hosting West Ham at 12:30, two teams whose Champions League hopes are hanging by a thread.

The Union get to play NYCFC in my least favorite venue - Yankee Stadium.  That's 1 pm on Saturday on ABC.  Figure this will be a tough one for the U.

And we have the final three matches of the CONCACAF World Cup qualifying.  For the US, this means Mexico Thursday night, Panama Sunday and Costa Rica on Wednesday.  A win over Panama is probably enough to send the US, although there are some ugly scenarios that might require a win plus at least a draw against Costa Rica.  Of course, we're assuming we get nothing from the trip to Mexico.  Recent history says nothing is easy here.

The games have been fast and furious so we will use the international break to give BFS staff some well-deserved time off.  We'll be back for the EPL run-in.

 

Love the South Coast

Well that went well.  Newcastle get a pair of 2-1 wins against Brighton and Southampton.  Who doesn't love the South Coast of England this time of year?  Plenty of help elsewhere.  An ugly but effective 2-1 win for the Union as well.

Who Are Those Guys?

With Newcastle up quickly on Brighton, that was Dennis's text to me.  Right, a 2-0 lead after 14 minutes isn't something you expect from the Magpies.  However, they didn't play so well after that being far too content to clear the ball with no intent of possession and careless with their passing.  Brighton got one back at 55 minutes and the rest of the match was difficult to watch.  Somehow, they closed it out for the win.  Almost everything on the stat sheet says this should have been a loss.

How many goals would Wood score if Wood would head
 like this all the time  Photo:Getty Images

At Southampton, Newcastle fell behind early and were committing many of the same mistakes again.  Fortunately, out of the blue, Shelvey lifted a perfect cross into the box that Chris Wood headed in for the equalizer and his first goal as a Magpie.  Then, more mistakes, which had me hoping we could just get to halftime 1-1.  The second half didn't start out much better. Somewhat against the run of play, Bruno G put Newcastle up with a goal that defies explanation; watch it for yourself to see what he did in this week's  YouTubeableMoment.  Better game management to the finish meant this wasn't quite as scary as the Brighton game to watch.  However, once again the stats say Newcastle might have been lucky to walk away with all three points here.

Except how much of this is luck?  Certainly, we have seen some let offs where the opposition didn't finish well or hit the woodwork.  Dubravka did come up big late in Thursday's match.  Some of the xG advantage is what 538 calls non-shot based, driven by where the ball was as opposed to actual shots; well, how much of the failure of the opposition to get shots away is due to the back line of Targett, Schar, Burn and Krafth?  Newcastle goals don't feel all that lucky, except maybe Bruno G's today.  In the end, does it matter?  No and yes.  For avoiding relegation this year, it's a clear no; it simply doesn't matter how we get points.  Longer term, probably yes as you could confuse luck for quality and not improve the team as necessary.  Speaking of improvement, how likely is it that this team wins these two matches three months ago?  Zero percent right?

The Bear Has Easier Prey Than Us Now

Of the six sides below Newcastle, only Brentford picked up points this week, and those were at Norwich's expense.  Leeds fell twice; first Leicester squeezed out a 1-0 win over the Whites, then Aston Villa pounded them on 3-0 on Thursday.  After the loss to Leicester my thought was they did not look like relegation fodder in their first match under American Jesse Marsch.  They were much tighter on defense without sacrificing too much of their preference for attack.  Didn't see the match with Villa but it sounds like Leeds will be Leeds.  Their goal differential is -35.  Burnley were hammered 0-4 by Chelsea and Everton suffered an even worse 5-0 defeat at Tottenham.  Watford did offer some resistance to the Arsenal but also fell, 2-3, then got pasted 0-4 by Wolves.  The match with Arsenal included this incredible goal from Cucho Hernandez, which would have been this week's YouTubeableMoment until Bruno G did his thing.  Besides losing to Brentford, Norwich also fell to Chelsea 1-3.

By Thursday evening, Newcastle were 10 points clear of 18th and were showing just a 2% chance of relegation at 538.  It would seem highly likely that the bear will not be coming for us any more.  

Derby in Name Only

DeBruyne had two in less than 30 minutes vs United

Despite how long it took for the dominance to show on the scoreboard, Man City fairly well dismantled Man United in a derby that mostly revealed the vast gap between the two sides.  The 2-1 City lead at halftime felt pretty secure.  Another goal in the 68th minute effectively put it out of reach and the stoppage time goal made the final 4-1, which seemed about right.  The stats are totally one-sided - possession 69/31, shots 24/5, shots on target 10/2 and xG 2.9-.7. 

In the other important match at the top, Liverpool eased past West Ham 1-0.  Though not as dominant, the win was deserved and the Reds kept pace with City.  As mentioned above, Chelsea fattened up on the bottom of the table and bought themselves a bit of space in third place.  Arsenal's win over Watford moved them into fourth; though the margin is just a point, they have games in hand on all the close competitors.

Things Almost Went South Up North

Once again, the Union surrendered the opening goal.  Plus, they were not playing all that well.  They looked to be in big trouble after Montreal scored a second early in the second half.  VAR saved the Union's butts here; Mihalovic  was called for a foul in setting up the breakaway..  Real time I thought it was a foul and the replay did nothing to dissuade me.  However, I wouldn't put Fischer's call in the category of a clear and obvious error.  Also not cool was how several Union players let up for a few seconds expecting the foul to be called.  Play to the whistle, right?

The play turned out to be the turning point when minutes later Bedoya scored a scruffy looking goal after a scramble in the box.  The U-turn was completed three minutes after that when Carranza put a nice pass right onto Gazdag's foot for what would be the game winner.  You can see it here.  

The night wasn't over yet because Carranza went on to pick up two yellows in the space of seven minutes, meaning the U had to play the final 20+ minutes a man down.  Several have commented whether the cards, especially the second were warranted.  The first was a rash decision to get grabby from behind as a Montreal player broke away from him; that's going to be yellow 90+% of the time.  The second might not have qualified as reckless but probably qualified as a tactical foul; in any case, it's a challenge somebody with a yellow shouldn't be making.  The good news is they survived to bring home all three points.  On the screen, it felt more like a draw, although xG says the Union did enough.

Curtin started Nathan Harriel over Mbaizo and made no secret that it was based on his dissatisfaction with Olivier's performance last week.  Though the Montreal goal was a deflection off Harriel, I thought he did well.  We also got to see Uhre late and he generated two good chances.  Unfortunately, he didn't convert either.  Overall, this continues to feel like a work in progress.  The best news is they got the win after falling behind on the road without their best performance.

New Worst Venue - Stade Olympique

CF Montreal's second home moves past Gillette Stadium in BFS rankings of bad MLS venues.  The facility, which hosted the 1976 Summer Olympic Games starts with two immediate strikes against it - an indoor facility with artificial turf.  Worse, it's a piece of crap artificial turf.  Inconsistent and strange bounces?  That's supposed to be the big advantage of ersatz grass.  Also, the seating is about 100 miles from the pitch.  The inadequacies were no doubt further exposed by the sparse crowd.

Football Manager Imitates Life

The real Harvey Elliott missed several months due to an ankle injury.  My FM version is now out for 2-3 months with a torn thigh muscle.  Fortunately, there are only six matches left in our season and promotion to the Premiership is assured so it's not the devastating blow it could have been.  He missed a few weeks with a different injury earlier this season.  Looking at his attributes on Genie Scout, injury proneness doesn't stand out as a weakness (6 out of 20, with 20 being worst).  No, his achilles heel, so to speak, is his jumping reach/heading.

More of the Same

Another busy seven days ahead, with mid-week EPL and Champions League fixtures.  We move our clocks forward on Sunday so everything's going to be an hour later than normal for a few weeks.

Because of last week's Thursday matches, Saturday's schedule is very light, with just three matches, though all have implications at the top or bottom.  Most important of the three is Man United - Tottenham at 12:30 on Peacock.  Both teams' Champions League hopes are hanging by a thread and both have put up some strange results in 2022.  At 538, they have this as extremely close, with Man United at 39%, Spurs at 37% and a 24% chance of a draw.  A lot at stake here.

Down at the other end we have Brentford - Burnley (10 am USA).  The Bees stopped their awful slide with a win over even more hapless Norwich; they are six above the drop zone but have played more than everyone below them.  Burnley had been looking better until two straight shut out losses.   A lot at stake here, too, just in a different way.

Saturday morning opens with Brighton hosting Liverpool.  The Reds are expected to take care of business here and hand Brighton their fifth straight loss.  Yeah, that talking point disintegrated and the Seagulls have slipped to 13th.

For some reason, the schedule makers have decided to cram five matches in at 10 am on Sunday with all but one on Peacock.  Our choice is easy and unfortunate; we'll watch Newcastle take on Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. No expectations for anything out of that one.    The morbid choice is Leeds - Norwich, a chance to watch two sides fighting for their Premier League lives.  Leeds have good chance to end their five game losing streak and maybe get some distance from the drop zone.  Norwich have lost four straight and look ready for the drop.

Villa have been doing a lot of celebrating lately;
will there be more at West Ham? Photo:Reuters

The neutral might do well to consider West Ham vs Aston Villa.  The Hammers are decent favorites but Villa may have figured some things out in the last few weeks.  We are looking for a good match here.  Fortunately, this is the one on USA so we have a chance of watching it after Newcastle's fun times at Chelsea.  Your other two choices are Everton-Wolves or Southampton - Watford.

Sunday afternoon has Arsenal - Leicester at 12:30 on USA; the Gunners are solid favorites looking to consolidate their hold on fourth.  Monday afternoon has Crystal Palace - Man City, also on USA at 4 pm. City will know the Liverpool result from Sunday; Palace are in that mid-table space with virtually no chance of relegation and no chance of qualifying for Europe next year.

Mid-week matches are sprinkled over Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Again, all have relevance in their own way.  Tuesday sees a clash at the top with Arsenal hosting Liverpool.  This is one of those games in hand for both these clubs. Depending on weekend results, this could put Liverpool level with Man City on points and possibly ahead on goal differential.  Likewise, depending on how they do against Man United and how Arsenal fare against Liverpool, Spurs may be looking close in on 4th place as they take on Brighton on Tuesday. 

Wednesday is a chance for Newcastle to really put this relegation nonsense to bed when they take on Everton.  Even at home, the Toffees are only slight favorites.  On Thursday, we could also get some help from Wolves if they were to see their way clear to beat Leeds. 

Don't forget Champions League action (2nd legs of Round of 16 knockout stage) on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Matches are listed here.  Note that three matches are level after the first leg.  Yeah, I know I didn't write about this week's CL results - click on any of the scores on that link and you can get the details.  

And of course, there's the Union.  Jeff K. and Graham will be at Subaru Park to welcome Jaime Monteiro back to town as the Union host San Jose at 7:30 Saturday evening. Hopefully, he will get a better reception than Ben Simmons.  You can watch the match on ESPN+ or PHL-17.  Still early in the season and we're sorting out who's who but we should be looking to take all three in this one.

Though we are loving all these games, the upcoming international break will be welcome.  Michael B and I have decided that the EPL "run-in" begins with the games after that break.  

More Teams Between Us and the Bear

Newcastle's chances of staying up brightened considerably after a 2-0 win over Brentford lifted them to 14th in the table.  Results elsewhere were mostly helpful.  The Union open with a draw at cold and windy Subaru Park.

Howe's He Doing It?

Pictured here with Ryan Fraser, Eddie Howe has reasons to smile

Newcastle's task got a lot easier when Brentford saw Josh Dasilva sent off with a straight red only 11 minutes in for a dangerous challenge on Matt Targett.  We know that the man advantage doesn't always pay off but the Magpies were very patient and pretty much put Brentford under siege for the rest of the half, finishing with a 2-0 lead.  Very encouraging that the scorers were Joe L. Linton and Willock.  The second half was about game management, as in not a whole lot happened.  Which was fine given the situation.  The score did allow Howe to put in Bruno G for a good 30+ minute run; don't want to read too much into a performance in those circumstances (up two goals and up a man) but the guy does seem to have an incredible work rate and shows up all over the place.  Many very encouraging signs.  

So the unbeaten streak goes to seven; the last loss was the 0-4 drubbing from Man City on December 19th. Over the last five, only Liverpool (15) have more points than Newcastle's 13.  So many things are working now and you can't say it's all down to the January transfer window.  Sure, Trippier (before he was hurt), Targett and Burns have shored up the defense.  However, much of the resurgence is due to re-energized performances from guys like Fraser, Joe L. Linton and Willock who were already here.  Some Howe, Eddie is getting way more out of these guys than his predecessor.

Who Wasn't Happy to See This?

Eriksen prepares to come on against Newcastle
Photo:IMAGO/Aaron Chown

Not completely correct that nothing happened in the second half of the Brentford - Newcastle.  In the 52nd minute, Christen Eriksen returned to competitive football 259 days after suffering cardiac arrest during a match in the European Championship. He looked fine out there, though I confess I was happy he didn't spoil things for Newcastle. He's able to play, at least in part, because he has an implantable cardioverter defibrillator.  Italian rules do not allow players in contact sports to use such a device out of concern that a hit could break the device.  So his contract with Inter Milan was mutually terminated and Eriksen signed a short-term deal with Brentford.  The good news is that he's back and we'll be be interested to see where he ends up next season.

Improved Odds But...

Mixed results elsewhere again demonstrate that the best approach is to take care of your own business.  A different result against Brentford might have meant more consternation that Man United struggled to a 0-0 draw with Watford (at home for chrissake) and that Crystal Palace and Burnley played to a 1-1 draw.  At least Southampton (2-0 over Norwich), Spurs (4-0 over Leeds) and Man City (1-0 over Everton) contributed to the cause.  

On the one hand, 538 now projects Newcastle in 14th with 39 points.  On the other, they also predict a blanket finish from 14th to 18th, with Leeds losing out at 36 points.  In other words, not much room for error for any of Newcastle, Everton, Brentford, Burnley and Leeds.  Did I mention that Newcastle play at Burnley on the last day of the season?

Tuesday Afternoon (apologies to The Moody Blues)

Tuesday turned out to be a particularly good day for the Magpies with their relegations odds improving, as The Chronicle notes here, without kicking a ball.  First, Burnley lost at home 0-2 to Leicester.  This was a match in which the Clarets might well have been expected to take all three points and they got none.  Plus, it was the last of Burnley's games in hand, so they sit four behind Newcastle after the same number of matches.  The other boost was a little more subtle.  Crystal Palace won their fifth round FA Cup match against Stoke City.  So what you might ask.  But now the Eagles have a quarterfinal match which means their 3/20 game with Newcastle will be postponed.  Now instead of four matches in 10 days, the Magpies will have three in seven.  Still not great but every little bit might help, especially as we wait for players to return from injury.

Truncated Action at the Top

Man City were in action (1-0 over Everton) but Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal were idle due to the Carabao Cup Final.  West Ham did slip past Wolves 1-0 and Spurs got all three with an easy win over Leeds.  As mentioned above, Man United only got a draw against Watford.  As the match weekend ended, Man United occupied the 4th but given all the unplayed matches, this is one tenuous hold on the last Champions League spot.   Arsenal have three games in hand and trail Man United by just two points. Except, wait a minute.  If I read this right, the three matches in hand are Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham.  Doesn't sound anything like a guaranteed nine points.  Plus they have to play Man United.  The Gunners may be the favorite but they have work to do.

We Can Retire That Talking Point

Aston Villa came out of their mini-funk to take a 2-0 win over Brighton.  This was the third straight loss for the Seagulls and we can no longer say that only Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea have fewer losses.  Good to see Ollie Watkins back on the scoresheet for Villa.

Handling and VAR: Part LXXII

Man City had just taken a hard-earned 1-0 lead late on Everton.  Minutes later, Rodri then suffers a massive brain cramp that you can hopefully see here.  Paul Tierney did not call handling on the field.  VAR Chris Kavanagh did not feel it was a clear and obvious error.  Cue the outrage.  Nearly everybody thinks this was handling.  Frank Lampard said even his three year old daughter could have made the call.  The EPL statement afterwards was pretty straightforward - the VAR didn't see sufficient evidence that the contact extended below the shirt sleeve.  That wasn't going to be the end of it and the PGMOL made sure of it by supposedly calling Everton to apologize.

Conclusive evidence that the contact was below the shirt sleeve?

Decidedly mixed feelings about this, especially from a process standpoint.  Given that contact with the ball is probably not a pinpoint event, one would say that it was very likely that the ball made contact both above and below the shirt sleeve line.  That would mean it was handling.  Arguing on behalf of Paul Tierney, I note that though he was in pretty good position (just inside the corner of the box) Rodri was between him and the ball plus there are two other players that might have affected his ability to see the play.  Okay, so what about the VAR?  Some angles seem more conclusive than others.  Is there clear and obvious evidence that the call was wrong?  I tend to consider that more strictly than others; I thought Kavanagh had fair reason to not re-referee.

The apology from PGMOL bugs me.  First, it wasn't clear what particular aspect of the call they were apologizing for.  The non-call on the field?  That VAR didn't overrule?  That Tierney didn't go to the monitor?  Second, it doesn't seem like much support for the refereeing crew.  Third, even if you think the whole thing sucked, exactly what does an apology accomplish?  But they are the supposed pros here so who am I to disagree?  To me, this feels like another case of everybody seems to just "know" what's handling and what's not even if the rules don't exactly conform.  Probably lead to another rule change and an incident in the future that will outrage everybody.

I Think That Went Rather Well Don't You

With the clock winding down on extra time in the Carabao Cup Final between Chelsea and Liverpool, Blues manager Thomas Tuchel decided he wanted Kepa Arrizabalaga to be in the net for the shootout.  Other than the fact that Kepa stopped none of the 11 Liverpool shots he faced and missed his kick, the decision worked out really well.  You can see Kepa's miss here.  The Liverpool fans aren't cheering Kepa's miss per se but the fact that the miss meant that Liverpool were League Cup Champion.  (Dennis on the other hand, might have been cheering the miss itself.)  To be completely fair, we are having fun here at Tuchel's expense.  The data pretty much back up his decision.  It just didn't work out this time.

The game itself was pretty good for a 0-0 draw.  Plenty of decent chances for both, several goals called back for offside, etc.  There was only one poor take in 22 during the shootout - Kepa's.  The loss means there will be no quintuple for Chelsea.  Liverpool however are still very much alive for the traditional quad - they won the League Cup and are still very much alive for the EPL title, Champions League and FA Cup.

Speaking of the FA Cup, 5th round matches were this week.  Most notable result was Middlesbrough tipping Tottenham 1-0 even though Spurs put pretty much the first team out there.  The season continues to be one step up one step back for them.  Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea are through to the quarters; the Blues didn't exactly blow Luton Town out of the water, needing two late goals to rally from 1-2.  Crystal Palace, Southampton, and Everton round out the EPL advancers.  The Championship Division will have the other two quarterfinalists - Middlesbrough and the winner of Monday's contest between Nottingham Forest and Huddersfield.  The quarterfinal matches, set for March 19th, are here.

Cold and Rusty

The only thing that was in mid-season form at Subaru Park was the sausage sandwich with onions and peppers.  Everything else was pretty much a work in progress.  Start with the fact that our marquee signing - Mikael Uhre - was in street clothes banging the ceremonial drum before the match, having arrived in Philly the night before.  Early on, Minnesota had little trouble making frequent forays down the left, getting the ball into dangerous positions with relative ease.  Eventually, that cost us.  Though Mbaizo's mistake was obvious there were multiple sets of fingerprints at the crime scene; Tannenwald  at the Inquirer points out in this article out how Elliott, Glesnes, Wagner, Martinez and Flach all contributed to the goal.  

Andre Blake - 5 saves vs Minn and not all were routine
Photo: Carl Gulbish

Fortunately, the Union did not seem flummoxed by the goal and started creating chances of their own.  The pressure paid off on a pinpoint cross from Glesnes that Burke absolutely buried for the equalizer.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Though there was no more scoring, the Union did generate some quality chances.  I'm thinking especially of the ball that Gazdag sent untouched through the six-yard box begging for someone to put it away.  Walking to the car I felt like maybe we were the better side; most of the stats, including xG, say a draw was a fair result.

A mixed outing, perhaps best typified by the performance of Jose Martinez.  He was beast on defense, dispossessing Loons seemingly at will.  However, he frequently returned the ball to the opposition with many an errant pass.  Newcomer Julian Carranza looks like he'll need some time to fit in.  The defense did look a little shaky early on but got better.  Gazdag worked himself into the game and probably should have been rewarded with an assist.  Looking ahead though, there were many hopeful signs, none more than the tactical choices Curtin will have this year.  For example, you could see how the balance tilted to much more attacking when Curtin switched Flach for McGlynn late in the second half going for the win.  Adding Uhre to the mix will increase the options too.  So, a disappointing opener but reasons to think it will get bettter.

Packed Again

Get ready for another full week.  Right now it's hard to find a match that isn't relevant to either the race at the top or the race to avoid the drop.  Also, some semblance of a return to normalcy with more games back on USA, which makes viewer's life so much easier.

For example, the Leicester - Leeds match at 7:30 Saturday morning.  I can sleep until 8 or even later and still get through that match in time to be ready for the 10 am fixtures because it's on USA. There's a full slate at 10 am.  We'll be going with Newcastle - Brighton on Peacock.  This looks really close on paper and I would be happy with a point here.  Although I do think that one is competitive, for the neutral I might suggest Aston Villa - Southampton, also on Peacock; that should be a good watch.  The other choices at 10 are a relegation match up between Norwich and Brentford (pulling for Norwich win but draw would be okay too), Burnley - Chelsea (gotta pull for the Blues even though it makes me a little ashamed) or Wolves - Crystal Palace (not much on the line there).  The 12:30 NBC featured contest is Liverpool - West Ham; though its 2nd vs 5th, the odds say the Reds will run rampant over the Hammers.

Two meaningful matches on Sunday, both on USA.  At 9 we have Watford-Arsenal; sorry but the Magpies are not in the clear yet so I'll be pulling for the Gunners.  At 11:30 I can just be neutral and take in the Manchester Derby.  If we trust recent form, City is going to take all three here.  Bonus game on Monday afternoon on USA is Tottenham - Everton.  Which Spurs team shows up?  I would prefer the one that can beat the Toffees.

Thursday make up games this week as well.  Key for me will be Southampton - Newcastle.  The Saints recent form is scary; this might be the biggest test for the Magpies since December.  There's also Wolves-Watford and Leeds-Aston Villa.  Villa should hope that Leeds new manager - Jesse Marsch - does not go with this (warning - language) halftime talk.

Don't forget Champions League second leg round of 16 ties on Tuesday and Wednesday at 3 pm.  Regular old CBS has Liverpool Inter on Tuesday and Real Madrid-PSG on Wednesday.  If you DVR, don't forget to extend the recording because those matches can go to extra time.  On Tuesday you might choose Bayern - RB Salzburg as it 1) might be a closer match and 2) should feature former Union star Brendan Aaronson.  

Last but not least, we have the Union in Montreal Saturday at 4 pm.  We are hoping this is Uhre's debut.

March Madness indeed.