Statement Result

Newcastle grab an unlikely point against West Ham, several teams, including Man United, look to be recovering from their cases of Man United Syndrome.  Alas, one of them isn't Aston Villa.

Playing with Purpose

Dan Burn (l) has shored up the back line for the Magpies

Late in the 1-1 draw with West Ham, I asked to Dennis to remind me that if Newcastle were to surrender a goal and lose the point, the effort was more important than the point.  So often we've seen Newcastle slink into these stadiums, park the bus, and look afraid to play football.  Missing Trippier and Saint-Maximin, I feared the worst.  Not so this time.  They made it clear that they were not going quietly in the mist.  Most impressive was that after falling behind 0-1, they didn't melt away like an early snow.  Instead, they kept plugging away and were rewarded with the equalizer just before halftime; we'll make Joe Willock's toe poke this week's YouTubeableMoment; not the most stunning of goals but who cares.  All I remember about the second half was that it was tense and that we gave as good as we got.  Most of the stats say a draw was the right result; xG actually suggests a slight edge for Newcastle.  When was the last time the Magpies had the greater share of possession in an away game?

Not to diminish the importance of the point for the draw, but the bigger news was the performance.  This is simply a different side than we've seen in a long time.  They look ready to fight to stay up.  Which is good, because it will be a fight.

Some are frustrated, including me a little, that Bruno G has hardly featured to date.  He was, after all, the key January acquisition.  Check out this article which lays out all the reasons that Bruno's slow introduction is in the long-term interest of both Bruno and the club.  This makes sense, especially given that we're getting results from the current line up.  They have the luxury of getting him acclimated so he'll be ready when the things are tougher.  And, as we shall see, despite this run of good results, the relegation fight is not over.

With Friends Like These

Less help in the relegation fight this week.  Especially annoyed at Brighton.  Despite all the kind words I've spilled on them the last month or so, they went and lost 0-3 to Burnley.  At home.  One shot on target?  Thanks for nothing.  I begrudgingly note that even after two consecutive defeats, only Man City, Liverpool, and Chelsea have fewer losses than Brighton.

Eff Mee - Defender Ben Mee heads in only goal in Burnley's 1-0
 win over Tottenham, an unfortunate result for Spurs and Newcastle

As annoying as the Brighton result was, Burnley's 1-0 midweek win over Tottenham was much more
harmful.  Though the stats say a draw might have been a fairer result, the Clarets pressed Spurs the whole match and Tottenham had no answer in the final third.

Aston Villa continue to struggle with whatever bug Man United had. The 0-1 loss to Watford was their third straight flat performance.  What's worse, this was the flattest of the three, as in things are not getting better.  The worst thing though is that this was three points for a relegation rival. 

To be fair, others were more than happy to help the Magpies' cause.  Liverpool struggled a bit but eventually put down Norwich 3-1.  Leeds took it on the chin, first from Man United (2-4), then Liverpool (0-6).  The Man United Leeds match was a strange one.   The elements may have been a factor.  Besides torrential rain, the winds regularly pushed the corner flags to a 45 degree angle.   In the first half, MUN built up a  2-0 lead and "looked good value" as they say over there.  That lead got wiped out in two quick minutes early in the second half.  For a while the result looked in doubt.  Then they remembered it was Leeds and scored in the 70th and 88th minute to take the 4-2 win. Southampton put down Everton despite keeper Jordan Pickford's best efforts; the 0-2 loss means the Toffees are level with Newcastle on points.  And Arsenal avenged the season opener loss to Brentford, though the 2-1 win wasn't as dominating as Gunner fans might have wanted.

Up Top

After their wretched performance against Burnley, I'd almost forgotten that Spurs did beat league leader Man City with a masterful performance on Saturday.  At the time, that seemed like a statement win for Tottenham.  Turns out it was just a blip.  The rest of the league appreciated it though. Actually, just about anybody but a Man City fan had to appreciate it.  City had come back twice, the second time on a PK call in stoppage time.  Figure that's that, a draw wouldn't be a terrible result.  Except Tottenham weren't finished as you can see in this game winner from Harry Kane.  Likely to see this one in the top ten matches list at season's end. The significance of the City loss was clearer when Liverpool took care of their game in hand on Wednesday - City's lead was down to just three points.  Their odds at 538 took a hit, dropping from 86% down to 72%.  That still sounds a strong number.  They face each other in Manchester on 4/10.

Gunners huffed and puffed and eventually
 blew the Wolves' house down

With a come-from-behind win over Wolves on Thursday, Arsenal are now the leading candidate for the fourth CL spot.  Wolves had taken an early lead on a shocking mistake by Gabriel.  To their discredit, Wolves looked like they started wasting time from that point on.  Equally to their discredit, Arsenal whined about Wolves wasting time, with Lacazette pointing to his wrist every time Sa dawdled over a goal kick.  The strategy came back to bite the Wolves in the ass, as Pepe slipped one past at 82 minutes and Sa ended up yielding an own goal in stoppage time.  A bit harsh to be tagged with an own goal when you're blocking a shot from close in; how is Sa supposed to know it wasn't on target?  I generally like to cheer on the Wolves but they got what they deserved here.  

So now the biggest gap in the table - 10 points - is between 2nd and 3rd.  At 538, Chelsea still rate highly with a 97% chance of a top four finish.  Arsenal are up to 52%, leaving Man United (22%), Tottenham (13%), West Ham (8%). and Wolves (5%) looking like long shots.  Wait, Brighton show up with a 2% chance, even after the loss to Burnley? 

Outrunning the Bear

Michael B thinks I overestimate Newcastle's danger and end up rooting against underdogs too much.  Maybe, but after years of worshipping at Our Mother of the Perpetually Relegation Threatened, it's hard not to want to see others dragged into the fight.  Retooling the old adage, I realize that we don't have to outrun the bear, just three others.  But I'll feel so much better when Norwich, Watford, and Burnley PLUS Leeds, Everton and Brentford are between us and the bear.  Burnley's consecutive wins make this even more critical.  In fact, both 538 and the SuperComputer now have Newcastle finishing 18th.  So yeah, you will occasionally see me cheering on an Arsenal to beat a Brentford, even though it makes me feel a little dirty.

Somebody Owes Nuno An Apology

If I were a Spurs fan, I would find this article in the Guardian infuriating.  And from wherever he is still cashing Tottenham checks, Nuno Espirito Santo might be permitted a wry smile.  Nuno was supposedly not up to the task of turning Tottenham around so they brought in heavy hitter Antonio Conte.  Now, after a dispiriting loss to Burnley, Conte wonders whether he's up to the task as well?  To borrow one of sportscasting most trivial phrases, are you kidding me?  This one bugs me on so many levels.  That Nuno was sacked so quickly in the first place, that Conte hasn't made the expected difference, that he's whining about it.  The last part is the most galling.

Whither the MLS?

The late start for the World Cup (November 17) led the MLS to push up the start of the 2022 season so things get under way this Saturday.  So what do we think of the Union's chances this year?

Well, we dealt away our leading goal scorer (shuhBILLkoh) and our assist leader (Monteiro).  Is that the best strategy for a side that features excellent attacking but can be lacking on the finishing?  We'll go with this is going to be okay.  Of course, this assumes that Sergio Santos stays healthy, Julian Carranza develops as expected and Mikael Uhre actually gets into the US (another Union player with visa problems - [late update - he's expected in Philly as on 2/25 though not clear he will play this weekend]).  Not trivial assumptions I realize.  As for the midfield,  I thought Gazdag worked well as the number 10 after slowly adapting to MLS; others are less optimistic (see here - also you might want to check out the reason that Charlotte will not win the Supporters Shield).  The back line is solid, especially now that we hear that Wagner is not heading to Europe; Andre Blake will continue to serve us well in goal.  We have a bevy of academy products; hopefully some will move from the prospect category into established regulars, after they get their drivers licenses of course.  Things in the MLS are so fluid predicting a placing is difficult but my guess would be a top four finish.

As for the larger picture, I have no clue.  I offer some articles here, here, and here for your perusal.  Also, the 538 rankings are here; looks like that's a prediction of 5th place in the East for the Union.

The View from Europe

Pretty good results for the EPL sides in the first legs of the Round of 16 matches.  Man City (5-0 over Sporting) and Liverpool (2-0 over Inter) will bring home healthy leads for their second legs.  Chelsea have a 2-0 advantage over Lille as they head to France.  Man United have work to do but at least will bring a 1-1 result against Atletico Madrid home to Old Trafford; that one should be tight.  Other second leg match ups that look great are Real Madrid -PSG (0-1) and Juventus - Villareal (1-1).  Since the away goal rule was scrapped this year, plenty of chances for extra time and maybe kicks from the spot.  Matches are 3/8-9 and 3/15-16.

 

EPL, MLS and Carabao Cup Final

Jeff H and I are more likely to be at Subaru Park
Saturday than our new striker Mikael Uhre
Photo:Kim Ahrens / Philadelphia Union

Yikes, this is a scheduling nightmare.  Union home opener against Minnesota is at 1 pm.  They will likely feel right at home in the 36 degree weather.  The early start time means that Jeff H and I will need to depart East Mt. Airy by about 11:30.  But, but, Newcastle's relegation six-pointer with Brentford won't be over yet.  Maybe the Magpies will have such a big lead it will be okay.  Right, sure.  Given Burnley's resurgence, this is a must-draw fixture.  Sure a win would be best but important not to let the Bees get too far ahead.

Aston Villa play Brighton at the same time as the Newcastle fixture so I won't see that.   At least Everton - MCI  is s the feature 12:30 NBC match so I can watch that on dvr later Saturday night. Wrong.  That's on Peacock.  How about a little help here?  

Wait, Dennis's dog Kaya is spending some time with us and is going to need a good walk Saturday morning.  How do I fit that in around between Tottenham - Leeds at 7:30 Saturday morning and the Newcastle match?  Even though I can dvr the Man United - Watford match (10 am Saturday on USA), I probably won't have a chance to watch it; just as well, as it's another case of rooting for the big bad club over an underdog.  No chance I'll see Crystal Palace - Burnley, also at 10 am on Peacock; I can really use the Eagles slowing down Burnley's charge.  

First world problems, I know.

Sunday will be easier.  A good six-pointer for the Champions League spot between West Ham and Wolves at 9 am (on USA, thank you) and the Carabao Cup final between Chelsea and Liverpool at 11:30 (streaming on ESPN+).  

Just one midweek match up but it's of great importance to Newcastle.  This will be Burnley's other game in hand, a home fixture against Leicester.  Can't really count on the Foxes for much help here.

What's the expression, March comes in like a relegation candidate and leaves like a slightly more likely relegation candidate?  Or something like that.

Another Pyrrhic Victory

Want a second opinion?  It was ugly too.  Newcastle get the win but lose Trippier.   Most of the contenders for the coveted fourth spot in the EPL did little to distinguish themselves.

We've Seen This Before

As in, Newcastle get a great result but lose a key player.  The 1-0 win over Aston Villa was an unexpected two or three points but Kieran Trippier picked up a serious injury.  He was somewhat of a surprise starter after hurting his calf last week.  He looked fine and provided the only goal of the match with Aston Villa, a free kick just outside the box that eluded the wall, deflected off Buendia's leg and past Martinez.  We'll make it another Kieran Trippier YouTubeableMoment; watch Buendia move around (he started in a kneeling position) before the ball hits his leg and deflects into the goal.  The bad news is that in the second half, Trippier got stepped on; he left the stadium on crutches.    A scan the next day revealed a fractured fifth metatarsal.  He's out for two to three months.  I realize that the Magpies already got a pretty good return on that investment - 10 points in four matches - but this is a cruel blow.  We have to hope that his attitude rubs off and shows in everybody else's performances.

Joelinton (c) put up some great defensive stats against
Aston Villa, including a team-high 6 tackles

While the overall assessment was that this was an ugly match, there were many solid performances.  Schar and Burn were steady at center back, Joe L. Linton continues his development as a holding midfielder and Ryan Fraser provided plenty of pace on the right wing.  The Magpies are actually four points above the relegation zone and the 538 percentage, which had gotten as high as 79% in January, is now down to 38%.  Yeah, three straight wins will do that.  Let's see what happens without Trippier on the pitch.

Help From My Friends (apologies to the Beatles)

Unlike last week, results elsewhere were mostly favorable for Newcastle.  Man City beat Norwich, Liverpool dispatched Burnley (though not easily) and Brighton took care of Watford.  Thanks guys.  I might have preferred a draw in the Everton - Leeds contest but the Everton 3-1 win was the second best choice as it keeps both of those sides within whispering distance.   Similarly, a Brentford loss would have been best but their 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace means they are still close.

Whatever Man United Has Is Contagious

Things haven't been too great at Man United.  Hard to figure out how that team continues to struggle.  Now it looks like Tottenham have come down with the same thing.  And West Ham appears to have milder symptoms of the malaise as well.  All three had less than stellar performances in their chase for the fourth Champions League spot.  Only Wolves, who got a 2-0 win over Spurs, and Arsenal, who had the weekend off, didn't drop points.  

Though it wasn't his fault, Ryan Sessegnon found himself yanked
at 30 minutes with Spurs already down 0-2 to Wolves
 Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

Man United continued their unimpressive run in a 1-1 draw to Southampton.  They were equally
unimpressive against Brighton on Tuesday but came away with a 2-0 win anyway, in large part thanks to a red card for DOGSO to Brighton defender Dunk.   West Ham were lucky to come away with a 2-2 draw at Leicester.  They needed a goal in stoppage time from Craig Dawson to get that. Spurs wish they had been unimpressive against Wolves.  They were awful and though it doesn't show on the stat sheet, the 0-2 final looked totally believable while watching.   

Surprisingly lackluster efforts from teams in the thick of a fight for a Champions League spot.  Oh, and Aston Villa may have caught whatever these guys have too.  The 3-3 draw with Leeds was puzzling enough but the performance against Newcastle was nothing like what we expect from them, especially after the addition of Coutinho and Digne.  You can't blame this one on still missing Jack Grealish; it was about multiple players having a bad day.  Gerrard will be earning his money in the next few weeks.  

First of Five for Chelsea?

Probably not, but Chelsea did complete the first step of the mythical quint as they bested the Brazilian club Palmeiras 2-1 in extra time to win the World Club Cup title.  The winning goal came from Kai Havertz on a PK in the 117th minute.  Can't say it was a thrilling match; Palmeiras pretty much went the full Mourinho and was mostly interested in containment and limited counterattacking.

So what about a quintuple for Chelsea?  Well, they are in the League Cup final later this month against Liverpool.  If I understand odds correctly, the bookies are saying they have about a 40% chance of winning that one.  They are still in the FA Cup and their fifth round opponent is Luton Town so they have a good chance to at least get to the quarterfinals there.  In the Champions League, they are paired with Lille in the first knockout round of 16; advancing to the next round is possible.  At 538 they have the Blues with a 10% chance of winning the whole thing.  A long shot for sure but these three seem possible.

But then we get to the biggest stumbling block - the EPL.  They trail Man City by 16 points.  The 538 table shows them with a less than one percent chance of winning the league.  That would be the height of irony - win the other four cups but not the league.  

Do You Know the Way to San Jose?(apologies to Dionne Warwick)

Somewhat out of the blue we read this week that Jamiro Monteiro was sold to the San Jose Earthquakes for various kinds of money that only make sense to MLS accountants.  Except it really wasn't out of the blue.  He was clearly unhappy here.  And, though there were often times when he was the best Union player on the pitch in the last two years, the move makes good sense.  This year it seemed like there was no effective way to have Daniel Gazdag and Monteiro on the pitch at the same time.   Gazdag can go back to playing behind the strikers where his creativity is most useful.  Plus, it probably means more time for academy products Quinn Sullivan and Jack McGlynn.  The financial side of this isn't great as it does not fit the buy low, sell high strategy we've seen recently.  But it was probably the best way to handle a player who didn't want to be here and wasn't the right person for the job anymore.  Excellent additional points about why this move is okay are offered in this article at The Philly Soccer Page.

Age Is Just A Number - No Matter How Big It Is

Nobody picked this winger 
up in the January window?

BFS co-founder Dennis F and his over-30 team -  Sportif Allentown - were in action this weekend at The Proving Grounds taking on an over-40 team from West Chester.  More gray hair and orthopedic devices than you might normally see on the pitch.  Still, highly entertaining soccer - solid skills and tactics.  Yeah, maybe they've lost a step or two but still good pace out there.  Not sure if it was just the age difference but Allentown did look like the better team and advanced metrics at 538 suggest that their 3-1 win was a fair result.  Dennis put in good work on the right wing, recording an assist and creating some scoring opportunities with runs down the right wing.

Sportif Allentown looked solid in win over West Chester

Busy Again

A full weekend slate plus four midweek matches and more Champions League.  Still too much use of Peacock for my liking but better than last week.  

Early to rise for us on Saturday as Newcastle travel to face West Ham at 7:30 on Peacock.  They'll get Matt Targett back but Trippier and Manquillo are out so we're light on right fullback/wingback.  Hard to see the streak continuing but maybe they nick a point given that West Ham can be inconsistent.

The 10 am slot is crowded with five fixtures, none looking all that exciting.  We'll go with Aston Villa hosting Watford and will be expecting that Gerrard will sort out what's wrong and send the Hornets home with no points.  Most competitive match might be Southampton - Everton.  We would expect Liverpool to handle Norwich, Arsenal to avenge their opening day loss to Brentford and Chelsea to take all three at Crystal Palace.  That last one is on USA with the rest on Peacock.

The NBC 12:30 feature is Man City hosting Spurs.  Yikes, that is not the fixture you'd choose to try and sort things out; 538 gives City a 74% chance of winning, Tottenham just 10%.  Ouch.

Two Sunday matches, both on USA, round out the weekend.  At 9 there's Leeds - Man United.  That's more the type of match Man United could use to sort things out.  They did beat Brighton but still didn't look at all that good.  At 11:30 we have Wolves - Leicester; actually this one might be competitive, though Wolves give up goals about once a month so maybe not.

Martinelli will be eligible for rematch with Wolves

Four midweek matches as the league catches up from covid.  Three on Wednesday.  We'll go with Spurs - Burnley, partly out of curiosity to see if Tottenham can improve and partly to hopefully see Burnley drop points.  The other choices are Watford - Crystal Palace (happy to see Palace take all three here) and Liverpool - Leeds.  Thursday has Champions League berth six-pointer between Arsenal - Wolves.  Weird that they face either again so quickly after Arsenal's 1-0 win on 2/10 which featured Martinelli's five second double yellow.

And while all this is going on, there's a full slate of Champions League on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Tuesday we'll check in on Chelsea - Lille.  Wednesday has the interesting match up of Atletico Madrid vs Man United.  Last week some of the CL matches were on CBS so check your local listings.  If you still haven't gotten enough, there are eight second leg fixtures for Europa League and eight second leg fixtures for Europa Conference League on Thursday.

And Union open a week from Saturday.  Current forecast is partly sunny and 40.

Look, we never said this was going to be easy.  

A New Newcastle?

Strange but entertaining midweek results; strangest of all was the Newcastle win.  Lots of interesting stuff, so little time.

Hmm, Toffee Pudding

Though I had low expectations, the Newcastle - Everton match ended up with a tasty finish.  Started the match with a bad feeling.  After a back and forth first half, Lascelles own goal at 36 minutes did nothing for the pit in my stomach.  Fortunately, Newcastle responded well with an own goal of their own, though we would argue that Lascelles header put the ball in the right direction.  Would have been one of the stranger braces of all time if the goal had been credited to Jamaal.  Ryan Fraser's goal in the 56th minute gave the Magpies the lead; this was not a pretty goal but at least it wasn't an own goal (or wasn't it - looks like it might have come off a defender).  Newcastle had been the better side but there was still plenty of time left.  That's why Kieran Trippier's goal was so special; well, that plus it was an awesome strike, an easy choice for this week's YoutubeableMoment (always like the view from the stands at St. James, Park).

Allan Saint-Maximin was at it again
Photograph: Simon Davies/ProSports/Shutterstock

So many positives coming out of this one.  Though it didn't always feel like it while watching, the stats other than possession, say this was clearly a Newcastle win.  Matt Targett put in a great shift as Dummett was unavailable due to injury.  Joe Willock didn't get on the scoresheet but was a force throughout.  Interested to see if Howe drops Willock or Shelvey when Guimaraes starts.  My guess is that it will be Willock but both have strengths and weaknesses.  And of course, there was Allan Saint-Maximin creating havoc all over the place.  Center back remains a vulnerability - Lascelles's lack of speed and inconsistency was on display again.  This is still a work in progress.  Will we see Burn and Guimaraes on Sunday?

How Would We Know?

I've heard people say a two-goal lead is the most dangerous lead.  Opta says it's just not true.  I never bought it.  But then I realized, what would I know about a two-goal lead?  First, it means you have to score at least two goals; Newcastle have done that in just five of 22 games.  Second, you actually have to get ahead by two goals.  Well, until the 80th minute against Everton on Tuesday, Newcastle had not held a two-goal lead at any point in the season.  Anecdotal I realize but Newcastle now are 1-0 in matches in which they had a two-goal lead.  Myth busted.

Just Call Him "Bruno"

Bruno Guimaraes made a brief appearance on Saturday.  The announcers called him something along the lines of gim-MAH-resh.  This clip suggests something different that I can't phoneticize.  But frankly, I could barely understand the accent of the guy who introduced the Portuguese speaker.  Come to think of it, why would I go to a Scotsman with a linguistic question?  Robin Williams (NSFW) knew better.  In any case, we may have to stick with Bruno for the time being.

What Happened to Jack Sparrow?

No more Jack Sparrow for Dele Alli

Dele Alli made his first appearance for Everton on Tuesday. It was not well received by their fans.  On the one hand, it was his first game without his Jack Sparrow locks.  On the other, as suggested in this article in the Guardian, this has been a trend.  Money quote for me is :

And yet somehow every run, every missed link and dead end is shot through with a horrible poignancy, with the sense of something vital mislaid.

I'm not rooting against him, but am convinced that though Newcastle need more pace up front, Dele would not have been a good desperation January signing for us.

I Love a Good Track Meet

Settled in to watch Aston Villa host Leeds on Wednesday with several thoughts.  One, let's see Villa continue to establish themselves as a rising power.  Second, both play attacking football so this could be a track meet.  Third, a Leeds loss would keep them within shouting distance of Newcastle.  As it turns out, only the second one was realized.  

Villa were just missing on some terrific through balls and then found themselves down 0-1 after a nice move by Daniel James.  Mildly disconcerting but I felt like it was a matter of time before the passes clicked and Leeds' defensive vulnerabilities were exposed.  And that's exactly what happened.  Between 30 minutes and 43 minutes, the Villans poured three goals past Meslier.  It was the Coutinho - Ramsey show  Coutinho got the first, then assisted on Ramsey's brace.  Check out Ramsey's first here; not taking anything away from the finish but how about that pass?  Daniel James completed the first half the of race game with his second in stoppage time.

Villa kind of lost the plot in the second half.  They also lost one of their No. 10's - Buendia - to injury after a whack.  Side note, Jared Gillet apparently has a "high" standard for what constitutes a foul.  I won't say it was biased but his conservative use of the whistle seemed to benefit Leeds more than Villa.  And, it was hardly surprising that the hacking got worse and tempers flared near the end.  But I digress.  An equalizer definitely seemed in cards.  Tyrone Mings looked like just a slightly better version of Jamaal Lascelles, first making a critical save off the line to preserve the lead, then minutes later, putting a weak clearance right onto Llorente's foot, who quickly provided Leeds with the tying goal.  Konsa got himself sent off late for stupidly interfering with Meslier distributing the ball.  Fortunately, it did not cost Villa the draw.

So I got my track meet but Villa's performance was definitely a mixed bag and Leeds managed to grab a point.  The good news is that Villa rallied well after going down a goal and showed some incredibly skilled attacking football.  They also continued to be plagued by lapses in the back.  Where have I heard that before?  Moving in the right direction I guess.

The Saints Go Marching

Meanwhile, in London, Tottenham and Southampton were putting on a wild display that likely pleased the neutrals and certainly Southampton fans but left Spurs fans cold.  Tottenham were looking good enough, even if they weren't playing all that great, after Son put them up 2-1 in the 70th minute.  Then, suddenly a pair of crosses by the master, James Ward-Prowse, four minutes apart put Southampton up.  Late game heroics specialist, Steven Bergwijn, looked to have come to the rescue again with a stoppage time goal only to see it ruled out by VAR - correctly - for offside.  The 2-3 final looks a bit harsh on Spurs, but even a draw at home against Southampton would have been an unsatisfactory result.

It's a Good Thing We Won

Results elsewhere would have been massively dismaying had not Newcastle already picked up their three points.  Burnley grabbed a point at home against the completely enigmatic Man United.  I didn't see the match but the stats suggest that Norwich were a bit lucky to come away with a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace.  At least Watford lost, barely (0-1), to West Ham.  Though not officially in a relegation battle yet, Brentford fell 0-2 to Man City.

A League of Their Own

As noted, Man City beat Brentford and Liverpool sputtered a little but bested Leicester 2-0.  Even with wins by Arsenal (1-0 over Wolves) and West Ham, the two biggest gaps in the table remain nine (between first place Man City and second place Liverpool) and seven (between third place Chelsea and fourth place West Ham).  Man United, Tottenham and Wolves all dropped points in their chase for fourth place but it's not like West Ham and Arsenal are pulling away.  All of those five have problems of one sort or another so this probably goes down to the wire.

But, Officer...

I feel a rant coming on.  In the Wolves - Arsenal match Thursday, Gabriel Martinelli managed to get sent off for two yellow card offenses in the space of five seconds.  The play can be seen here.  First, Martinelli clearly interferes with the Wolves player taking the throw-in.  As a reminder, cautionable offenses include:

failing to respect the required distance when play is restarted with a dropped ball, corner kick, free kick or throw-in

You can clearly see Michael Oliver signal advantage after than infraction.  Wolves have an attack going so stopping play to show Martinelli a yellow would be unfair.  Also, very little judgment required here; is there any doubt that Martinelli interfered with the throw-in?  Move to part II, in which Martinelli chases down Chiquinho and pushes him from behind.   As a reminder, cautionable offenses include:

commits any other offence which interferes with or stops a promising attack

Play is stopped and Oliver then issues the two yellows.  The fact that Oliver didn't have the chance to show Martinelli the first yellow before he committed the second is irrelevant.  He committed two yellow card offenses.

The pundits are having a field day and opinion seems to be divided.  Many in the camp who think this was harsh are saying that they would not have a problem if the incidents had been separated and Martinelli had gotten a yellow so he knew he was on a yellow.  So you agree it was two yellow card offenses but don't like that he got two yellows right away.  But officer, you didn't arrest me after I robbed the first person so I didn't know it was a crime so you can't charge me for the first robbery.  The player doesn't know he might get a yellow?  RTFM.  Another said no one from Wolves would have run over to Oliver if he'd only shown one yellow.  That's nuts.  My first reaction was that he's going to get two yellows and if I was a player or manager in that situation, I would have asked the referee which of the two infractions he thought didn't deserve a yellow. I heard the word "foible" bandied about.  Not completely sure what they mean but I think it's something like yeah, it's in the Laws of the Game but Oliver was being pedantic in actually enforcing it.  Um, it's there for a reason.  This was a 1-0 match, Wolves had a chance for a break with a quick throw-in and Martinelli deliberately interfered.  How is that pedantic?  It's a textbook example of why it's in the law.  Here's a thought.  The rules provide sanctions for specifically these kinds of bullsh** actions by players and good on Oliver for enforcing it.   If it deters this kind of behavior going forward, excellent.

BFS Derby

Ruh-roh - Coutinho likely to be healthy for Newcastle match

Not exactly a dream set of fixtures this weekend and all the matches but one on Peacock as opposed to USA - stupid Winter Olympics.  But, it does include a BFS derby with Newcastle hosting Aston Villa Sunday at 9.  A few weeks ago, this looked like a joke.  Now, 538 has it 35% Newcastle, 39% Aston Villa, 26% draw; I would take a draw here in a heartbeat.  Personnel available still very much up in the air.  Trippier is likely out with a calf injury; Matt Targett is ineligible because he can't play against his parent club.  Villa will be without Konsa due to suspension and may be missing Coutinho and Buendia.  Last news I saw made it sound like Coutinho would play and Buendia might be available.  Also sounds like Bailey might be back as well.  

My choice for the neutrals is Tottenham - Wolves, Sunday at 9.  Both are in the hunt for 4th in the table, both are coming off disappointing results. 538 has Spurs as big favorite here but I'm not so sure about that.  Critical game for both, especially Wolves.  Another loss in a six-pointer for them could be the end of their Champions League hopes.

There are two matches of importance in the relegation fight, though some of the participants may think otherwise.  Brentford - Crystal Palace (10 am Saturday) looks like a very competitive match.  After a great start, the Bees are gravitating to the drop zone; they got 12 points in their first seven matches but have just 11 in their last 17, including five straight losses.  They are only six out of 18th and have played more matches than any of the clubs behind them.  Palace are a little better off and a win here would probably separate them from the threatened.  The other contest of note here is Everton - Leeds also at 10 on Saturday.  There is no doubt Everton are at risk; Leeds are too, just six out of the bottom three.

Man City and Liverpool should get easy wins; Newcastle fans certainly hope so as they face Norwich and Burnley respectively.  City has the feature NBC match at 12:30 while Liverpool are Sunday at 9.  We are also looking for Brighton to take all three at Watford (Saturday at 10).  

Logic says Man United should handle Southampton at home (Saturday 7:30) but both of these sides have surprised - United in their continued underperformance and Southampton with schizophrenic form.  538 says Leicester - West Ham (Sunday 11:30) should be close but the Foxes have disappointed all year.   West Ham have been uneven so maybe on the road this one will be close.

Midweek action as Man United host Brighton on Tuesday (3:15 Peacock).  Logic again says Man United should be good here but who knows, plus, all together now, Brighton (regardless of weekend results) will go in with the fewest losses of any but Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea.

Plenty of Europe action during the week too.  Tuesday and Wednesday have two Champions League fixtures each.  Thursday has 8 Europa League and 8 Europa Conference League contests.  Upcoming CL fixtures are here; PSG - Real Madrid is probably the most competitive of this round.  Europa League action is listed here; can't say anything really grabs me, except to ask what the heck are Barcelona doing in Europa?

Geez, bad time to get busy with projects.  Starting to affect my viewing.

Don't Choke on the Minnows

Though not a lot of upsets in the 4th round of the FA Cup, many of the favorites found that the minnows did not go down easy.  For Newcastle fans, the 4th Round was what we've become accustomed to - another weekend off. 

Middlesbrough got the round started with a Friday afternoon upset over Man United, at Old Trafford no less.  The Red Devils of course dominated on the stat sheet with 71% possession, 30 shots to 6, 9 shots on target to 3, etc.  But at the end of full time it was 1-1.  We should mention that Ronaldo missed a PK in the 20th minute and there was "controversy" (see below) on Middlesbrough's goal; it was that kind of day.  No scoring in added extra time so onto kicks from the spot.  Pretty high quality stuff through seven rounds - all well taken.  Lee Peltier converted number 8 for Middlesbrough but Elanga skied his over the cross bar and Man United were out.  Sort of funny to see Middlesbrough keeper Joe Lumley sprint the length of the field in celebration even though he didn't stop any of the kicks.  

No Stairway to Heaven (apologies to Led Zeppelin)

Robert Plant in the stands at Kidderminster watching the Harriers
 seek a stairway to heaven the 5th round of the FA Cup.
 Photo:Kieran McManus/REX/Shutterstock 

Saturday was much more of the same, with three Premier League sides pressed into added extra time to beat lower tier sides.  They all survived but it wasn't pretty.  Closest call of all was West Ham barely squeaking by sixth tier Kidderminster.  The Harriers were no doubt inspired by the presence of Robert Plant in the stands (see left).  The Hammers needed a goal in stoppage time from Declan Rice just to get to added extra time.  You had to figure that the late goal would take the life out of Kidderminster but it didn't; they played another tough 30 minutes and the match looked headed for kicks from the spot until Bowen scored during the added minute of stoppage time in extra time. Cruel, just cruel.  Nice two minute video highlights here.

At the same moment, Chelsea were being taken to extra time by League One's Plymouth Argyle.  Marcos Alonso's goal in the extra period cut down some of the drama there and Chelsea advanced to the 5th round.  Southampton found themselves similarly tested by Championship Division Coventry.  Kyle Walker-Peters saved Southampton's bacon with a goal in the 112th minute.  

So three close calls but no upsets.

Not So Lucky

Others were not so fortunate.  Wolves fell to Norwich 0-1.  Yeah, both are EPL but it's still an upset.  Everton "upset" Brentford 4-1.  That sounds strange but the Bees are ahead of the Toffees in the table.  We have chronicled Leicester's disappointing season so far and the 4-1 pasting by Championship Division Nottingham Forest certainly adds to the list.  Peterborough knocked off QPR 2-0, a mild upset for The Posh (seriously, that's their nickname) over their Championship Division rival.

Boreham Wood also has cool jersey

The stunner of the round though goes to fifth tier Boreham Wood beating second tier Bournemouth 1-0 on the road.  Using our ranking system this is like 23rd best side losing to the 97th ranked club.  The stat sheet is ridiculous; Bournemouth had 83% possession and outshot them 18-3.  Somewhat telling is that the Cherries only managed two shots on target.  Dennis notes that The Wood (that is their nickname) had just 64 completed passes the entire match.

The rest of the matches went basically according to form, including reasonably comfortable wins for Man City (4-1 over Fulham), Liverpool (3-1 over Cardiff) and Tottenham (3-1 over Brighton).  For the fourth round overall, here's how the divisions fared:

Premier League        9-5

Championship          6-6

League One              0-3

League Two              0-1

National League       1-0

National League (N) 0-1

Fifth round matches are set for Wednesday March 2; fixtures are listed here.

Handling - Part LXII

Before we dive into the pseudo-controversy over Middlesbrough's goal against Man United, we need to review the evolution of the handling rule.  A few years ago the rule was tweaked in response to a real or perceived belief that people found goals scored with even the accidental use of the hand unsavory.  In that iteration, accidental handling by the goal scorer or a teammate that created a goal scoring opportunity was an infraction.  What happened of course, after seeing a lot of goals chalked off because of accidental handling by a teammate which created a goal scoring opportunity, was that people decided that maybe that part wasn't so unsavory.  So the rule was tweaked again last July, with the new language limiting the part about accidental handling to the goal scorer only.  To complete the review, we include the language defining handling, which occurs when a player:

deliberately touches the ball with their hand/arm, for example moving the hand/arm towards the ball

touches the ball with their hand/arm when it has made their body unnaturally bigger. A player is considered to have made their body unnaturally bigger when the position of their hand/arm is not a consequence of, or justifiable by, the player’s body movement for that specific situation. By having their hand/arm in such a position, the player takes a risk of their hand/arm being hit by the ball and being penalised

Now, here is the play.  Certainly not a case of moving the arm towards the ball.  So you are left with did he make his body unnaturally bigger?  Wait, that's not the entire question.  Did he make his body unnaturally bigger in a way that was not "a consequence of, or justifiable by, the player's body movement for that specific situation?"  Try to jump - naturally -  without raising your arms, especially in the context of settling a ball as opposed to, say, a defender jumping with arms outstretched to try and block the ball.  Craig Burley back in the studio is cementing his position of my go-to-guy of how not to interpret the rules when he read only the first sentence of the rule.  To his credit, Taylor Twellman said the call was correct given the way the law is written; he did express that he might not be a big fan of the rule.  But people didn't like the old way, didn't like the new old way and appear not to like it the new new way.  Appears there will be no pleasing people on this issue so my advice is ignore them.

Forest Green Sightings

Elliott scores on his return from injury;
he's been a force for Forest Green in FM

I counted five players from my FM Forest Green squad in action during the 4th round games.  Most gratifying was the return of Harvey Elliott for Liverpool after a nasty ankle injury earlier this season.  He came on in the 58th minute and scored on a well-placed volley in the 76th minute (seen here - sorry for the cheesy music). Looking forward to watching him the rest of the season.  In my FM game, he will likely win the MVP in the Championship Division playing for my Forest Green side.   Taylor Harwood-Bellis appeared at center back for Stoke in their 2-0 win over Wigan.  Adam May appeared again for the Cambridge side that frustrated Newcastle in the previous round; not as satisfying this time as they were dumped by Luton 3-0.  Well, you can't play Newcastle all the time.  Leif Davis showed an incredible work rate down the left side for Bournemouth with crosses and overlapping runs but they were all for naught in the defeat to Boreham Wood.  And Perry Ng was back in action for Cardiff as they fell to Liverpool.

Has It Come to This?

There was one EPL match as last place Burnley hosted 19th place Watford.  I'm ashamed to admit this but as a fan of 18th place Newcastle, I was rooting for a 0-0 draw.  I'm not ashamed to say that's exactly what unfolded, though I would say that as 0-0 draws go, this was pretty tepid.  Basically nothing happened.  I wasn't necessarily surprised by the score line but rather how gentle the whole thing seemed; often these relegation-relevant contests are high intensity even if low quality.  

Bonus Post?

Really scary fixture with Everton
this afternoon; I can barely watch

So I did a Tuesday post because the rest of the week looks crowded  with work and I didn't want to have to discuss both the FA Cup matches and the mid-week EPL fixtures in a big post.  We'll be back on Friday to report on league action, assuming I come out from under the covers to actually watch.  What if the transfers weren't enough and Newcastle still suck?  

Canada Is the New US

At least in terms of soccer.  The USMNT took it on the chin in Canada but rebounded with a needed win over Honduras.  A hectic end to the January transfer window.  On Groundhog Day, Michael B emerged from his man cave and saw his shadow so there will be at least six more weeks of football.

The Keeper Wore Sweat Pants

Always the height of fashion, Canadian keeper Milan Borjan
 did enough to keep the US out. Photo:Frank Gunn/CP

The trip to Canada did not end well, with the US falling 2-0.  It wasn't just that they lost, it was how they lost.  An early mistake set the tone for the match.  Feels like they could have played for a few more days and the US still wouldn't have scored.  Oh hell, why write my own account when Parker Cleveland has done a fantastic job in this SB Nation article.  So many great points here.  Dennis and I can't agree on the money quote.  The choices: 

Dennis: Run fast and do teamwork

Steve: Play bad soccer really well

Either one aptly describes how the US used to beat technically superior teams and how the tables have turned   Not sure it was quite the "spectacle de merde" (look it up in your French-English dictionary) that Cleveland called it but it was not pretty.  Not that we really had expectations of a win but we were thinking maybe a draw and certainly a better overall performance.  

In From the Cold and Into the Cold

US Keeper Matt Turner auditioning
for Monty Python remake

If you were seeking warmer climes than Hamilton, Ontario in January, not sure that St. Paul, Minnesota in February was a great option.  The choice of venue was driven by the "politics" and "logistics" of WC qualifying.  The Canada match was originally slated for Vancouver, which would have made a West Coast venue the optimal site for the Honduras match.  Canadian officials realized Vancouver opened up the prospect of a pro-US crowed for one of their own home matches so they switched the venue to Hamilton.  To minimize the travel on the players with the short turnaround, St. Paul ended up as the choice for the Honduras match.  Temperatures in single digits with wind chills below -10 greeted the players, leading to some interesting uniform accessories.

The good news is that the US got on this one early when Weston McKennie converted a Kellyn Acosta free kick in the 8th minute.  McKennie had a great set of games and this goal made the night go a lot better; we make it this week's  YouTubeableMoment.  Note that it was the first goal from a set piece for the US in Octagonal WC qualifying action.  The US continued to create chances and got a second goal from Walker Zimmerman late in the first half that further reduced the tension.  A second half goal from sub (!?) Christian Pulisic made the final 3-0.  They got pretty much what they needed out of this one.  Sure, Honduras were already eliminated and haven't played well at all but you can only beat who you play.

The Other Seven Sides of the Octagon

Honduras and Jamaica are done.  El Salvador could win all three matches in the final window and that will get them no better than 4th - the playoff position.  Costa Rica got seven points in this window but are still five points out of third; they have Canada and US at home and El Salvador on the road in the final window.  The bad news for them is that they could win all three but will still need help from others.

Canada are in the driver's seat.  They only need a win at home against Jamaica to clinch a top three spot.  So the real action is between the US, Mexico and Panama.  Mexico have close to a dream final window - US at home, Honduras away and El Salvador back at home.  Hard to see them getting less than seven out of those.  Panama and the US have much tougher final windows - Panama face Canada at home, US away and Honduras at home while the US take on Mexico away, Panama at home and close with Costa Rica away.  Yeah, put a big circle around March 27 when the US host Panama in Orlando City.  You want to say a US win there should be enough but there is still the possibility of them heading into the final day needing a draw in Costa Rica.  Thinking about that possibility, a Frank Burns line from M*A*S*H comes to mind:

That kind of talk tightens my colon.

In short, this ain't over.

A Nutso End to the January Transfer Window

Speaking of a "spectacle de merde," the last few days of the transfer window were crazy.  Apparently, there was no rumor too ludicrous not to print.  Muller to Newcastle, Suarez to Aston Villa, etc.  If you googled "EPL transfer window," the first thing you had to do was ignore anything that had been posted more than an hour ago; it was simply out of date by then.  Maybe it's like that every year and I only noticed because I spent more time following this window given how critical it was to Newcastle's survival in the EPL.  Dennis felt that the terms "ace" and "star" were thrown around too liberally for his taste.  I'm tired of hearing the phrase "shock move."  

Bruno Guimaraes is going to look good in Newcastle kit
Photo:John Berry/Getty Images

Crazy doesn't mean it went badly.  Newcastle added three players of varying skill at the back (Kevin Trippier, Dan Burn and Matt Targett), a dynamic midfielder in Bruno Guimaraes and a striker in Chris Wood.  Sure, it wasn't perfect.  A pacey attacking midfielder would have been nice.  Burn and Targett weren't necessarily first choices.  And, they clearly overpaid for what they got.  On balance though, this is an A or A- window.  There is some criticism about the lack of a "wow" signing but IMHO that vastly underestimates the possibilities that Guimaraes offers; he plays for the Brazilian national team for crissake (highlights from his performance against Paraguay here).  He might bomb out in the EPL but this signing is a clear indication, as discussed by Louise Taylor in this article in the Guardian, to break away from defensive style the Magpies have been known for recently.  How about his nickname - Piano Carrier - which is apparently a Brazilian term for a player who does the "unseen work."

Newcastle weren't the only busy club in the window.  Aston Villa added Lucas Digne at left back, Philippe Coutinho for attacking midfield, Calum Chambers for defensive depth and Robin Olsen as back up to Martinez in goal.  That's a good window right there. Grabbing Bissouma from Brighton or Bentancur from Juventus (damn you, Spurs) would have made it a home run. 

A link to all the transfers from this window can be had here.  An assessment of winners and losers in the window is offered here.  Somewhat interesting is that despite landing Bentancur, Spurs and Conte are listed among the losers here.  I guess there were higher expectations.

Local Guy Makes Good

Auston Trusty wasn't with the Union that long but he is an academy product.  We read that he has signed with Arsenal in a permanent transfer from the Colorado Rapids.  The good news for us is that due to clauses in the deal that sent him from the Union to Colorado, the Union will receive a nice chunk of whatever transfer fee Colorado get.from Arsenal.

Hold Onto To Your Butts

Sound advice for the coming weeks

We will do well to heed the advice of Samuel L. Jackson's character in Jurassic Park.  Between the EPL (including all the rescheduled matches), the FA Cup, the Carabao Cup, Champions League, Europa League, Europa Conference League, the early opening of the MLS season and the CONCACAF WC qualifiers, the next two months are packed.

This weekend is mostly Round 4 FA Cup action.  The schedule includes a Friday 3 pm match between Man United and Middlesbrough.  We're never ones to pass on Friday afternoon football.  Saturday is crowded, especially the 10 am time slot.  A full list of fixtures is here. Basically you can find anything from classic FA mismatches to clashes between EPL sides.  

Complicating Saturday is a rescheduled Burnley - Watford EPL match at 1 pm on Peacock.  Given the relegation implications, we'll be going with that over any FA Cup action.  The Clarets are favorites at home but this will be the first match for Watford under Roy Hodgson, the club's third manager this season.  

EPL Matchweek 24 will play out over Tuesday - Thursday.  And me with potential jury duty on Thursday. Will the judge accept missing Wolves - Arsenal or Liverpool - Leicester as a hardship or will he say you can watch on DVR or catch the replay on Peacock when you get home?  

Big match on Tuesday for Newcastle's new look line-up as they take on Everton (2:45 on Peacock).  Not a slam dunk and steeling myself for a draw.  The Toffees have been in awful form and the match is home but they have new manager Frank Lampard and did some nice work of their own in the January  window.  Tuesday's other choices are West Ham - Watford (2:45 on Peacock) and Burnley - Man United ( 3 pm on USA); though I wish it weren't so, I'll be rooting for the Hammers and the Red Devils.

Four more on Wednesday.  We'll be going with Aston Villa hosting Leeds at 3 pm on USA.  We like Villa's chances here plus we're hoping they keep Leeds within shouting distance of Newcastle.  Other choices - all on Peacock at 2:45 - are Man City - Brentford, Norwich - Crystal Palace, and Tottenham - Southampton.  Frankly, we recommend the neutrals go with Aston Villa - Leeds as the likely most interesting watch.  

Both Thursday matches look good but we'll probably go with Wolves - Arsenal as they are both in shouting distance of the fourth spot in the table.

Get ready for more crowded weeks like this.