Even with the postponements, there was still plenty to watch over the holiday week. Newcastle grabbed an unexpected but costly point, then got a postponement that they badly needed.
Pyrrhic Draw
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| Wilson down - a distressing and too frequent occurrence Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images |
The price however was steep. Wilson left with a calf injury that looks to have him out for four top six weeks. Saint-Maximin - who had the Newcastle goal on a sweet individual effort (this week's YouTubeableMoment) - departed with a calf injury. Ryan Fraser picked up a hamstring injury and Manquillo got his fifth yellow of the season, earning him a one game suspension. The good news is that all of this seemed much worse right after the match, with Wilson and ASM originally expected to miss much more time. Also not as frightening when we heard that Thursday's match with Everton was postponed.
Newcastle will start the new year in 19th, surprisingly just two points from safety - though they have played more games than those immediately above them. Bring on the January transfer window!
Boxing Day
COVID wiped out the two 7:30 games so we slept late. We started with Tottenham - Crystal Palace but when Spurs put up two quick ones from Kane and Lucas, we made an executive decision to switch over to West Ham - Southampton, where the Saints had an early 1-0 lead. The wisdom of that move was confirmed when minutes after changing over, Zaha got a second yellow and was sent off, dooming any chance of a Palace comeback. Dennis was disappointed that he missed Zaha's sending off but there was no doubt that WHU-SOU turned out to be the more interesting contest. Antonio came on to start the second half and quickly leveled things for the Hammers. Southampton went back up with a Ward-Prowse PK but West Ham leveled things again within minutes. Bednarek's header in the the 70th minute proved to be the game winner in a highly watchable match.
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| Ruh roh - Lukaku's coming in, bad news for Villa |
could give the Blues a run for their money, even if they took no points from the match. Though the 1-3 final and some of the stats suggest otherwise, this was a close contest on the field. First, Villa had the lead for a while - well six minutes anyway. Yeah, it was an own goal off Reece James' head but we'll argue it wasn't completely against the run of play. The bad news is that within minutes, Matty Cash made an unnecessary challenge on Hudson-Odoi and Jorginho's PK tied it up. Romelu Lukaku came on to start the second half and within about 10 minutes had Chelsea on top. They later added a meaningless PK in stoppage time. Despite getting only one shot on target, Villa did not seem totally outplayed. To sum up, since December 1st Aston Villa have played all three top sides, coming away with respectable 1-2, 0-1 and 1-3 losses, at no point looking like they didn't belong. They are on target for a 6-10 place finish.
The day finished with reasonably entertaining 2-0 win for Brighton over Brentford that on TV and statistically looked like a dead heat. So even with some holes due to postponements, all in all a satisfying Boxing Day.
A League of Their Own One
Don't look now but the biggest gap in the league table is between 1st and 2nd, with eight points separating Man City and Chelsea. The second biggest gap is between 3rd and 4th, with six points separating Liverpool and Arsenal. This is all slightly misleading due to the unequal number of games played but the basic point still stands. Man City have won ten straight while Chelsea and Liverpool have been dropping points here and there.
City made mince meat of Leicester on Boxing Day, going up 4-0, before allowing the Foxes to creep within one before adding two more to seal a 6-3 final. The 1-0 win over Brentford on Wednesday was much more work but they earned all three there too. Meanwhile, Liverpool had their Boxing Day match postponed, then proceeded to lose to Leicester 1-0 on Tuesday. Under the transitive property, that means that City will beat Liverpool 7-3. Chelsea did get a win over Aston Villa but dropped points again in a 1-1 draw to Brighton. Sure, the Brighton goal came in stoppage time on a Welbeck header seen here (cool when you do it right in front of your travelling fans). However, a draw was no less than the Seagulls deserved; they had the better of possession, outshot the Blues and even had a slight edge on expected goals. Have I mentioned lately that Brighton still have fewer losses than anyone except Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool?
Arsenal joined Man City as the only other top seven side that didn't drop points in the last week. that's enough to keep them in fourth right now. In theory, Spurs could be there given they have two games in hand. However, their argument is weakened by the Tuesday's 1-1 draw with Southampton. This was the first match under Conte in which they looked flat. After dropping points to the Saints on Boxing Day, West Ham did "hammer" Watford 4-1 and remain in the mix for fourth. Man United also rebounded after the draw to Newcastle with a 3-1 win over Burnley so they are right there too.
Life at the Bottom
More than Newcastle, Norwich could use some postponements. They got plastered 5-0 by Arsenal on Boxing Day then fell to Crystal Palace 0-3 on Tuesday. They've suffered five straight scoreless defeats, have a goal differential of -34 and were not recently bought by a filthy rich owner. As of 12/30, 538 has their chances of relegation at 91%. Burnley are still languishing in 18th but have one to three games in hand compared to others around them. The list of their postponed matches includes Watford, Everton, Aston Villa and Tottenham, so there might be a point or two coming their way. Watford and Leeds round out the list of most likely relegation candidates. The wild card here is obviously how much and how well Newcastle spend during the January transfer window.
So Many Names
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| Boubacar Kamara would look good in black and white Photo:Getty Images |
Early hopes for Bruce Tarkowski are fading. Burnley don't seem interested in letting him move in the January window and will let his contract run out in June. Frankly, can you see Sean Dyche letting his key center defender leave for a relegation rival? Me neither. No solid leads, just a list of names, for help up top. And, if Newcastle pay £42 million for Aaron Ramsey, just shoot me.
Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did
Dennis: Newcastle match postponed because they do not have enough "recognized first team players?"
Steve: That's not the EPL criteria for postponing matches. If it was, all Newcastle fixtures this season would have been cancelled
Football Math
My holiday experience with Forest Green reminded me of an important formula in football:
LW>DD
That is, three points is greater than two. We lost our Boxing Day match to Birmingham. Most annoying, we were solid favorites yet surrendered a late goal to fall 0-1. Prospects for points from a trip to Swansea just two days later were slim; maybe we would nick a point. Instead, we played really well, maybe got a little lucky too and came away with a 2-1 win. Our key rivals were both dropping points in draws with lesser teams. So we actually added a point to our lead and sit atop the table by three points on 1/1/22.
The January transfer window is open and we are making inquiries. I always shoot too high at the start so up to this point I have been flooded with one of two types of rejections:
1) Why would I want to sign with a Championship Division side?
2) Your initial offer is so far below our expectations we are ending negotiations
Eventually I'll find the right targets.
Football on New Year's Day!
Love the American tradition of football on New Year's Day. As of now, there's a full slate of games covering Saturday - Monday.
In case you hadn't heard, NBCSN is going away tomorrow but USA will be picking up the games, supposedly without missing a beat. Before they depart, join me in raising a glass to the fine work NBCSN did in making the EPL so accessible. And for Ted Lasso.
Long before the Mummers begin their strut down Broad St, we'll be watching a marquee match up pitting first versus fourth in the form of Arsenal -Man City. That will kick-off at 7:30 on USA. The second half of that top four action comes Sunday at 11:30 when Chelsea host Liverpool, also on USA.
Two choices Saturday at 10, both of interest to relegation threatened Newcastle. You can go with Watford - Tottenham on USA or Leicester - Norwich on Peacock (oops, scratch that second one - Norwich finally get the postponement they badly need). Neither match looks particularly competitive and we prefer it that way. The 12:30 match looks more interesting, a London Derby from our favorite Selhurst Park, where Crystal Palace will host West Ham. The Hammers are favored but not by a lot and this could be a competitive match.
Sunday we have to choose between four matches at 9. Well, we don't have to choose because Southampton - Newcastle on Peacock is one of them, if it isn't postponed. This is a chance for points, though the Saints have been in better form recently. Dennis will be going with Brentford - Aston Villa, also on Peacock; this is an important match for the Villans to solidify their top half status. Neutrals might do well to go with Everton - Brighton on USA, which looks like the most competitive match of the weekend. Have I mentioned...oh never mind. Relegation threatened Leeds and Burnley round out your choices; that's likely of interest only to friends and families of the two teams, and to Newcastle fans.
The holiday seasons ends with a good looking match on Monday at 12:30 between Man United and Wolves, who somehow managed to go through the congested holiday fixture list without any matches - they last played on 12/19.
The following weekend starts the EPL teams participation in the FA Cup so league play will take a week off.
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