PKs and VAR

Another week with too many results and not enough time.  We'll do what we can.

"Quite Good Considering"

I forget which announcer said it as the telecast of Newcastle's 1-3 loss to Liverpool was winding down.  Quite good considering what? Considering that Newcastle suck?  Considering after being humbled 4-0 by Leicester on Sunday, a real thrashing at Anfield was a possibility?  Fair enough.  

The Magpies actually had an early lead thanks to a quality strike from Jonjo Shelvey.  Liverpool rallied and were on top 2-1 by half time.  One of the goals was set up nicely by an ill-advised back pass from Shelvey, undoing his earlier good deed.  Newcastle defended reasonably well but a late strike from Alexander Arnold made the score look a little worse.  So the week ended with two losses and an aggregate 1-7 scoreline.  

The January transfer window cannot get here soon enough.  Very tough watching an offense that largely consists of Shelvey taking shots from 20 yards out and Saint-Maximin making 30 yard runs in which he eventually draws three defenders and loses the ball before he can get a pass or shot away.  

Villa Climbing

Dennis had a better time watching Villa play Liverpool very tough before losing on a PK by Mings on Salah (correctly called we believe) and then seeing them handle Norwich with relative ease.  They are back in the top ten and playing close to where we expected based on the new personnel.  

Still A League of Even Their Own

Maybe not as dominating a set of matches (with one notable exception) from the top three but they still grabbed 15 of 18 points on offer.  Over the weekend, each needed late PKs to get their wins.  More on that below.  Their aggregate score was a whimpy 5-2.  Man City even had a man advantage over Wolves for the second half and still limped away with a 1-0 win.  As we mentioned, Aston Villa made Liverpool work for their 1-0 win.   Chelsea fell behind Leeds, rallied to go up 2-1, partly aided by a legit PK, then allowed a late equalizer; the Blues were able to walk away with all three after another foul in the box in the 94th minute gave them the game winner.

Midweek, Man City made hash of Leeds with a 7-0 thrashing. As noted Liverpool were not seriously tested in their 3-1 win over Newcastle.  Chelsea were the only side to drop points as they only managed a 1-1 draw at home to Everton; the Blues may have been unlucky there as the stats say they ran all over the Toffees.  So, 11-2 aggregate for the midweek and 16-4 over the two match weeks.  The gap between Chelsea in third and Arsenal in 4th (uh oh, two more wins for the Gunners) is eight, still the largest by far anywhere in the table. 

Saiss Matters

Saiss Does Make the Difference

Wolves played Man City tough on Saturday but came away with nothing.  Wednesday they played a tight match away at Brighton and got a 1-0 win thanks to a timely goal from Romain Saiss.  Like Aston Villa, Wolves have worked their way back up the table and currently reside in the 8th.

Bees Playing Hornets in Front of WASPs

Friday's match between Brentford and Watford was highly watchable.  Watford, despite being outplayed, were up 1-0 until late.  An 84th minute goal leveled things and a 96th minute PK gave Brentford the 2-1 come-from-behind win.

PKs and VAR

Six of game winners in the weekend contests came on PK calls, most really late.  The fun started on Friday with Brentford's PK in the 96th minute to steal all three points from Watford.  Newcastle fans were okay with that.  Man City benefited from a PK in the 66th minute for their slim victory over Wolves; we thought the handling call was incorrect.  We mentioned the Liverpool PK.  Chelsea needed two PKs, including a very soft call against Rudiger in the 94th minute to eventually tame Leeds.  Man United slipped past last place Norwich 1-0 after Ronaldo was sort of fouled in the box in the 75th minute. Lastly, we didn't mention this but the Leicester's first goal against Newcastle - and therefore technically the game winner - came on a PK after Lascelles sort of fouled Maddison.  

Don't agree with several of these calls, and not happy about their implications.  The good news though is that I think in all cases the VAR did the right thing.  Lascelles stuck his leg out but was withdrawing it - Maddison just aimed for it to make sure there was contact.  I thought it was exactly the kind of play the early season directive told referees to ignore.  But to have overturned would have been re-refereeing as opposed to correcting an obvious error.  Same for the handling in the Man City - Wolves match.  I thought the ball hit the side of the chest and the upper arm on the sleeve. Replays didn't prove that point one way or the other and Moss was right there for the call so it was good that the VAR left it alone. Ronaldo won a PK after the defender put his arms around him and Ronaldo went to ground.  I didn't think the contact was enough to make Ronaldo go down (ooh, how many times have people said that?); on the other hand, put your arms on the attacker like that, you take the risk and VAR stayed away again.  Lastly, Rudiger might have been pushed but he went down awfully fast for a big man.  However, there was a push and in no way could it be considered a clear and obvious error.

In many of these cases, I don't think they got the call "right" but they did use VAR correctly.

Ruh Roh

Positive tests for COVID are on the rise.   Here's the graph of weekly testing.  

One of last weekend's games was postponed.  Three of the midweek matches were called off.  Now, half of this weekend's matches are postponed.  Dennis sends along this article in which some are suggesting a shut down until the weekend of 1/8-9.  With ad hoc postponements like we've seen so far, some teams are going to be left cramming in matches later in the season, giving them a congested schedule that others will not face.  Also, a minor point I know, but it's hard to make sense of the table when some teams have played three less matches than others.

As of this moment, the team that most needs a postponement - Newcastle, who face Man City on Sunday - will not get one.  They need the services of Crash Davis.

Does This Make Them Lumberjacks?

Johnson after big save on Valeri

NYCFC needed another penalty shootout to fell the Timbers and capture the MLS Cup.  They had led
since a late first half goal by Castellanos but looked to be stunned by a last second, stoppage time goal from Portland that sent the match into extra time.  Neither managed to score so it was on to kicks from the spot.  Here, Sean Johnson was the star as NYCFC outshot the Timbers 4-2.  Highlights of the match here - it should open to about 4:00, the point where Sean Johnson made an excellent save in the shootout that solidified his pick as MVP of the match.  We also make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  We note with sadness that this particular save meant there would be no Valeri Tale ending for the Portland.

A Leaderboard You Won't Find on ESPN

    Goals by RP Management Clients

    Guiseppe Rossi -1 

Rossi (r) the client

We previously highlighted that Guiseppe Rossi is a valued client of RP Management.  See the picture (left) of him with RP Management Director of Investor Relations Michael B.  As detailed here, Rossi recently signed with Serie B club SPAL.  Turns out, it did not take him long to get back on the scoresheet. In his second appearance for the club, he bagged the game winner against Cosenza in the 58th minute.

Rossi the goal scorer

Easy Week (Unless You Carabao the League Cup)

Just Saturday and Sunday matches for Match Week 18.  (Ed. Note: the header was written before we heard about the weekend cancellations.)  On the 538 match prediction site, the colors range from light orange for close matches to dark orange for blowouts.  You can see an example here.  The bad news for this week is that I see a lot of dark orange.  The worse news is the darkest orange is reserved for Newcastle, who are given just a 6% change of winning and 12% of getting a draw.  That's 9:15 on Sunday on NBCSN.  I have no reason to doubt their numbers.

Arguably the most prestigious contest is Tottenham - Liverpool 11:30 Sunday on Peacock.  We can hope that 1) Spurs are healthy enough to field a team and 2) offer the Reds a serious contest.

Saturday's early risers can take in would have taken in Man United vs Brighton at 7:30 on NBCSN but that one is off.  Note that even with the recent loss to Wolves, Brighton still have fewer losses (4) than any clubs besides Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea.  The 10 am matches don't really stir the blood.  We'll go with Aston Villa Burnley to support Dennis and to keep an eye on a key relegation rival on NBCSN because now it's the only option.  Your other choices would have been Southampton - Brentford (Peacock), Watford - Crystal Palace (Peacock) and West Ham - Norwich (Peacock).  The Watford - Crystal Palace fixture might have actually been a good watch.  The "feature" 12:30 match on NBC is Leeds - Arsenal; probably worth checking out if only because Leeds just don't know when to quit.

Really early risers on Sunday can get up at 7 am for Everton - Leicester on NBCSN.  The Foxes thrashing of Newcastle notwithstanding, both of these sides have disappointed this year - a close contest is possible.  will have to find alternative programming.  For those wishing to skip the Newcastle car crash, Wolves - Chelsea at 9 am on USA is a good alternative.  

For those still following, the League Cup quarterfinals are Tuesday and Wednesday next week.  Tuesday is Arsenal - Sunderland and Wednesday has Brentford - Chelsea, Liverpool - Leicester and Tottenham - West Ham.  Note that one of these eight sides is really not like the others.  All matches are at 2:45 and available only on ESPN+ as far as I know.

Of course, by the time you read this, they may have shut down the league for a few weeks.  That would put a damper on the holiday season.