Better Than A Lump of Coal

 Even with the postponements, there was still plenty to watch over the holiday week.  Newcastle grabbed an unexpected but costly point, then got a postponement that they badly needed.

Pyrrhic Draw

Wilson down - a distressing and too frequent occurrence
Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images

I know I've used that header before but it applies again.  Newcastle played Man United very tough and not just on the defensive end.  The 1-1 draw is a very fair result.  Some argue that this should have been three for the Magpies and in some ways it did feel winnable.  Stats, especially expected goals, suggest the draw was about right.  Given that we our best case was an 0-2 loss, this was definitely better than expectations.

The price however was steep.  Wilson left with a calf injury that looks to have him out for four top six weeks.  Saint-Maximin - who had the Newcastle goal on a sweet individual effort (this week's YouTubeableMoment) - departed with a calf injury.  Ryan Fraser picked up a hamstring injury and Manquillo got his fifth yellow of the season, earning him a one game suspension.  The good news is that all of this seemed much worse right after the match, with Wilson and ASM originally expected to miss much more time.  Also not as frightening when we heard that Thursday's match with Everton was postponed.  

Newcastle will start the new year in 19th, surprisingly just two points from safety - though they have played more games than those immediately above them.  Bring on the January transfer window!

Boxing Day

COVID wiped out the two 7:30 games so we slept late.  We started with Tottenham - Crystal Palace but when Spurs put up two quick ones from Kane and Lucas, we made an executive decision to switch over to West Ham - Southampton, where the Saints had an early 1-0 lead.  The wisdom of that move was confirmed when minutes after changing over, Zaha got a second yellow and was sent off, dooming any chance of a Palace comeback.  Dennis was disappointed that he missed Zaha's sending off but there was no doubt that WHU-SOU turned out to be the more interesting contest.  Antonio came on to start the second half and quickly leveled things for the Hammers.  Southampton went back up with a Ward-Prowse PK but West Ham leveled things again within minutes.  Bednarek's header in the the 70th minute proved to be the game winner in a highly watchable match.

Ruh roh - Lukaku's coming in, bad news for Villa

Next up was Aston Villa - Chelsea.  As I mentioned last week, we were mildly optimistic that Villa
could give the Blues a run for their money, even if they took no points from the match.  Though the 1-3 final and some of the stats suggest otherwise, this was a close contest on the field.  First, Villa had the lead for a while - well six minutes anyway.  Yeah, it was an own goal off  Reece James' head but we'll argue it wasn't completely against the run of play.  The bad news is that within minutes, Matty Cash made an unnecessary challenge on Hudson-Odoi and Jorginho's PK tied it up.  Romelu Lukaku came on to start the second half and within about 10 minutes had Chelsea on top.  They later added a meaningless PK in stoppage time.  Despite getting only one shot on target, Villa did not seem totally outplayed.  To sum up, since December 1st Aston Villa have played all three top sides, coming away with respectable 1-2, 0-1 and 1-3 losses, at no point looking like they didn't belong.  They are on target for a 6-10 place finish.

The day finished with reasonably entertaining 2-0 win for Brighton over Brentford that on TV and statistically looked like a dead heat.  So even with some holes due to postponements, all in all a satisfying Boxing Day.

A League of Their Own One

Don't look now but the biggest gap in the league table is between 1st and 2nd, with eight points separating Man City and Chelsea.  The second biggest gap is between 3rd and 4th, with six points separating Liverpool and Arsenal.  This is all slightly misleading due to the unequal number of games played but the basic point still stands.  Man City have won ten straight while Chelsea and Liverpool have been dropping points here and there.  

City made mince meat of Leicester on Boxing Day, going up 4-0, before allowing the Foxes to creep within one before adding two more to seal a 6-3 final.  The 1-0 win over Brentford on Wednesday was much more work but they earned all three there too.  Meanwhile, Liverpool had their Boxing Day match postponed, then proceeded to lose to Leicester 1-0 on Tuesday.  Under the transitive property, that means that City will beat Liverpool 7-3.  Chelsea did get a win over Aston Villa but dropped points again in a 1-1 draw to Brighton.  Sure, the Brighton goal came in stoppage time on a Welbeck header seen here (cool when you do it right in front of your travelling fans).  However, a draw was no less than the Seagulls deserved; they had the better of possession, outshot the Blues and even had a slight edge on expected goals.  Have I mentioned lately that Brighton still have fewer losses than anyone except Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool?  

Arsenal joined Man City as the only other top seven side that didn't drop points in the last week.  that's enough to keep them in fourth right now.  In theory, Spurs could be there given they have two games in hand.  However, their argument is weakened by the Tuesday's 1-1 draw with Southampton.  This was the first match under Conte in which they looked flat.  After dropping points to the Saints on Boxing Day, West Ham did "hammer" Watford 4-1 and remain in the mix for fourth.  Man United also rebounded after the draw to Newcastle with a 3-1 win over Burnley so they are right there too.

Life at the Bottom

More than Newcastle, Norwich could use some postponements.  They got plastered 5-0 by Arsenal on Boxing Day then fell to Crystal Palace 0-3 on Tuesday.  They've suffered five straight scoreless defeats, have a goal differential of -34 and were not recently bought by a filthy rich owner.  As of 12/30, 538 has their chances of relegation at 91%.  Burnley are still languishing in 18th but have one to three games in hand compared to others around them.  The list of their postponed matches includes Watford, Everton, Aston Villa and Tottenham, so there might be a point or two coming their way.   Watford and Leeds round out the list of most likely relegation candidates.  The wild card here is obviously how much and how well Newcastle spend during the January transfer window.

So Many Names

Boubacar Kamara would look good in black and white
Photo:Getty Images

Speaking of expected transfer activity by Newcastle in the January window, mostly we are still just have speculation and rumor. BFS can confirm that Dennis has not been contacted. One thread that does have traction is Kieran Trippier coming Tyneside.  Atletico seem willing to let him leave and Trippier has expressed interest; very possibly this will be the first signing announced.  On balance this would be a good move.  He is 31 but would be a definite improvement at right back for us.  A name that intrigues me is Boubacar Kamara, a defensive midfielder currently at Marseille. I like his ratings on GenieScout, he's just 22 and does look likely to leave his current club.  Of course, all of those things make him attractive to other clubs.  For example, Dennis notes he'd solve a big issue for Aston Villa.

Early hopes for Bruce Tarkowski are fading.  Burnley don't seem interested in letting him move in the January window and will let his contract run out in June.  Frankly, can you see Sean Dyche letting his key center defender leave for a relegation rival?  Me neither.  No solid leads, just a list of names, for help up top.  And, if Newcastle pay £42 million for Aaron Ramsey, just shoot me.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis: Newcastle match postponed because they do not have enough "recognized first team players?"

Steve: That's not the EPL criteria for postponing matches.  If it was, all Newcastle fixtures this season would have been cancelled

Football Math

My holiday experience with Forest Green reminded me of an important formula in football:

LW>DD

That is, three points is greater than two.  We lost our Boxing Day match to Birmingham.  Most annoying, we were solid favorites yet surrendered a late goal to fall 0-1.  Prospects for points from a trip to Swansea just two days later were slim; maybe we would nick a point.  Instead, we played really well, maybe got a little lucky too and came away with a 2-1 win.  Our key rivals were both dropping points in draws with lesser teams.  So we actually added a point to our lead and sit atop the table by three points on 1/1/22.

The January transfer window is open and we are making inquiries.  I always shoot too high at the start so up to this point I have been flooded with one of two types of rejections:

1) Why would I want to sign with a Championship Division side?

2) Your initial offer is so far below our expectations we are ending negotiations

Eventually I'll find the right targets. 

 

Football on New Year's Day!

Love the American tradition of football on New Year's Day.  As of now, there's a full slate of games covering Saturday - Monday.

In case you hadn't heard, NBCSN is going away tomorrow but USA will be picking up the games, supposedly without missing a beat.  Before they depart, join me in raising a glass to the fine work NBCSN did in making the EPL so accessible.  And for Ted Lasso.

Long before the Mummers begin their strut down Broad St, we'll be watching a marquee match up pitting first versus fourth in the form of Arsenal -Man City.  That will kick-off at 7:30 on USA.  The second half of that top four action comes Sunday at 11:30 when Chelsea host Liverpool, also on USA.

Two choices Saturday at 10, both of interest to relegation threatened Newcastle.  You can go with Watford - Tottenham on USA or Leicester - Norwich on Peacock (oops, scratch that second one - Norwich finally get the postponement they badly need).  Neither match looks particularly competitive and we prefer it that way.  The 12:30 match looks more interesting, a London Derby from our favorite Selhurst Park, where Crystal Palace will host West Ham.  The Hammers are favored but not by a lot and this could be a competitive match.

Sunday we have to choose between four matches at 9.  Well, we don't have to choose because Southampton - Newcastle on Peacock is one of them, if it isn't postponed.  This is a chance for points, though the Saints have been in better form recently.  Dennis will be going with Brentford - Aston Villa, also on Peacock; this is an important match for the Villans to solidify their top half status.  Neutrals might do well to go with Everton - Brighton on USA, which looks like the most competitive match of the weekend.  Have I mentioned...oh never mind.  Relegation threatened Leeds and Burnley round out your choices; that's likely of interest only to friends and families of the two teams, and to Newcastle fans.

The holiday seasons ends with a good looking match on Monday at 12:30 between Man United and Wolves, who somehow managed to go through the congested holiday fixture list without any matches - they last played on 12/19.

The following weekend starts the EPL teams participation in the FA Cup so league play will take a week off.

Desperate Enough to Watch Carabao Cup Quarterfinals

Undernourished after COVID reduced the weekend's fixture list to a mere four contests, suddenly even the Carabao Cup matches looked appetizing despite our history of trashing that competition.  Speaking of postponed matches, wouldn't the world have been better off if one of them had been Newcastle - Man City?

A December to Forget

Last week I wrote that Newcastle offense was Shelvey taking long shots and Saint-Maximin making futile runs.  Neither was in the starting line up Sunday.  Things went downhill from there.  We don't like to speak ill of Ciaran Clark but he's had a bad December.  He didn't move to cut out the cross from Cancelo, thinking that Dubravka had it.  He didn't and Ruben Dias was more than happy to score the opening goal in just the 5th minute.  Cancelo added on of his own later in the half.  Two more in the second half and there's your 0-4 final.

Can't say I'm shocked, only mildly disappointed that we didn't keep the final to maybe 0-2 or 0-3.  Not sure if that was a 4-3-2-1, a 4-5-1 or a 10-0-1 that Howe put out there.  They managed only five shots with just one on target. We've lost three matches in eight days by a combined 1-11 score. 

A Day of Their  Own

Son's goal got Spurs a draw with Liverpool

The three clubs in A League of Their Own had Sunday to themselves.  We've already discussed Man City's easy win over Newcastle.  While that was going on, Chelsea were struggling to a 0-0 draw with Wolves.  The Blues have dropped seven points so far in December and I hear their membership in A League of Their Own is under review.

The late match between Tottenham and Liverpool was a corker.  Back and forth, lead changes, yellow, orange and red challenges, VAR being tested left and right.  Kane's early goal was covered by Jota and Robertson's late goal was countered by Son.  There were two PK shouts that I think VAR properly let go.  Kane's challenge on Robertson was probably orange, which means VAR was correct to leave that one alone too.  And Robertson's challenge on Royal was also orange in my book so I think the VAR re-refereed that one instead of correcting an obvious error.  Three out of four ain't bad I guess.

There are now three points between each of the clubs, with Man City on top, Liverpool second and Chelsea third.  And, even with the recent slippage, there's still a six point gap between third and fourth - which is still the biggest between any two places in the table.  Sharp-eyed analysts may be quick to point out the asterisk here.  Spurs have three games in hand (Brighton, Leicester and Burnley) and could in theory be within three points of Chelsea were they to win them all.  

Martinelli doubles Arsenal's lead over Leeds

The only other match of the weekend was Arsenal making hash of Leeds 4-1.  Rising star Gabriel Martinelli had two goals by the 28th minute.  The win solidified the Gunners hold on fourth place, giving them a four point cushion over West Ham.  Again, most of the teams right below them have games in hand so that may be a bit illusory.  But no doubt Arsenal have rebounded after slow start.  And I had Arteta high up in the Sack Race earlier this year.  My apologies.

So What About Those Carabao Cup Matches?

Tuesday we were bored enough that we tuned in for the second half of Arsenal-Sunderland (the only non-top tier side left in the competition).  It was only 2-1 at that point so why not?  Soon it was 4-1 heading to a 5-1 win for the Gunners.  Wednesday was better as the first half of Tottenham - West Ham was a treat.  Great end-to-end action that included three goals in five minutes. The second half wasn't as exciting but with Tottenham holding just the 2-1 advantage it was still interesting.  Spurs held on to claim their berth in the semis.

If I had chosen Liverpool-Leicester that might have been just as good.  The Reds fell behind 0-2 quickly on a brace from Jamie Vardy.  Oxlade-Chamberlain got one back but Maddison restored the Foxes' two goal lead.  Jota got one back but Liverpool went into stoppage time still trailing.  Check out the 95th minute equalizer from Minamino here.  Wow, the fans seem to think this was important.  With no extra time in the League Cup until the semis, this went straight to kicks from the spot, which Liverpool won 5-4.  Chelsea claimed the last spot with a 2-0 win over Brentford.

That'll Leave A Mark

Chelsea were missing several players for the  Wolves match due to COVID.   As pointed out in this article, even with the absences, not only did Ross Barkley still not get a start, he didn't even get in as a substitute.  Decent article suggesting winners and losers over the weekend.  The Premier League comes in for some tongue lashing.

Your Reputation Proceeds You

Alexander Lacazette felt he was hard done by a foul in the Arsenal-Leeds contest.  When no cards were forthcoming the announcer suggested that Lacazette's "history of theater" may have worked against him in this case.  

Forest Greening Sighting

Hoever, playing for Wolves here,also looks good
 in a Forest Green kit (Photo by Naomi Baker/Getty Images)

Though I missed it, Ki-Jana Hoever - one of my Football Manager Forest Green players - played ninety minutes for Wolves against Chelsea.  According to whoscored.com, he played well, getting a 7.32 rating.  In FM, I have him on loan from Liverpool; he's doing well, with an average rating of 7.08 over 12 appearances.  

We have regrouped from an inconsistent start that saw us bouncing around the 4th to 8th spots.  We're unbeaten in the last nine with seven wins and two draws and hold a two point lead over Fulham at the top of the table.  

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve: If you get a yellow card for a dive, does that mean you were booked for descent?

Dennis: I'm disappointed that it took 8 years to realize this.

Boxing Day and More

As of this writing, only two matches have been postponed so Sunday looks like a full day.  You have a choice of five at 10 am.  We are most likely to go with the London derby featuring Spurs and Crystal Palace (USA).  The percentages at 538 suggest that the most competitive match will be Burnley - Everton (NBCSN).  Other options are Man City - Leicester, Norwich - Arsenal and West Ham- Southampton, all on Peacock. 

At 12:30 you get Aston Villa - Chelsea on NBCSN.  Villa are of course underdogs here and they did lose to Chelsea 0-3 in the reverse fixture.  However, more recently they played both Liverpool (0-1 loss) and Man City (1-2 loss) very tough so we are optimistically hoping for a decent contest.

The 3 pm match is Brighton - Brentford, two sides that have arguably overperformed to this point and who are tied on points at 20.  Everybody is probably tired of me pointing this out but it is still true that only Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea have fewer losses than Brighton.  All I'm saying is that this might be a better match than you think.

That is probably not the case with Monday's match between Newcastle and Man United.  No, it looks like the Magpies "How the Grinch Stole Christmas" December will continue.  I mean, even a lump of coal in the stocking would be an improvement at this point.

Match week 20 will unfold over Tuesday through Thursday.  Tuesday's scheduling is odd in that the start times look like a busy Saturday instead of a weekday.   Who doesn't like a Saturday on a Tuesday? Things start early with a 7:30 matchup between Arsenal and Wolves.  Probably a win for Arsenal but Wolves aren't pushovers.  Three to choose from at 10.  We're likely to tune in to Southampton-Spurs (NBCSN); alternatives are Crystal Palace - Norwich or Watford - West Ham, both on Peacock.  Not saying they are great choices but Newcastle fans have definite favorites in those two contests.

We'll be most interested in the Leeds - Aston Villa match at 12:30 on NBCSN.  Home field may give Leeds a slight advantage here but Villa have played with renewed spirit under Gerrard.  This is exactly the type of close contest that we think Villa should be able to win.  The day closes with Leicester - Liverpool at 3 pm on NBCSN; in past years we might have been all over this one but the Foxes just haven't been all that good (except when they play Newcastle, but then, who doesn't get better when they play Newcastle, am I right?).

Two more on Wednesday but a more normal week day schedule.  Chelsea - Brighton kick off at 2:30 (Peacock) while Brenford - Man City starts at 3:15 pm on NBCSN.  Then two more on Thursday with Everton - Newcastle at 2:30 (Peacock) and Man United - Burnley at 3:15 (NBCSN).  We have every reason to think that Everton will complete Newcastle's wretched December but this one might be a little closer.

Of course, this is all assuming no more postponements.  But even if a few get dropped, this should be more than enough to satisfy even the most rabid fan.   

 

PKs and VAR

Another week with too many results and not enough time.  We'll do what we can.

"Quite Good Considering"

I forget which announcer said it as the telecast of Newcastle's 1-3 loss to Liverpool was winding down.  Quite good considering what? Considering that Newcastle suck?  Considering after being humbled 4-0 by Leicester on Sunday, a real thrashing at Anfield was a possibility?  Fair enough.  

The Magpies actually had an early lead thanks to a quality strike from Jonjo Shelvey.  Liverpool rallied and were on top 2-1 by half time.  One of the goals was set up nicely by an ill-advised back pass from Shelvey, undoing his earlier good deed.  Newcastle defended reasonably well but a late strike from Alexander Arnold made the score look a little worse.  So the week ended with two losses and an aggregate 1-7 scoreline.  

The January transfer window cannot get here soon enough.  Very tough watching an offense that largely consists of Shelvey taking shots from 20 yards out and Saint-Maximin making 30 yard runs in which he eventually draws three defenders and loses the ball before he can get a pass or shot away.  

Villa Climbing

Dennis had a better time watching Villa play Liverpool very tough before losing on a PK by Mings on Salah (correctly called we believe) and then seeing them handle Norwich with relative ease.  They are back in the top ten and playing close to where we expected based on the new personnel.  

Still A League of Even Their Own

Maybe not as dominating a set of matches (with one notable exception) from the top three but they still grabbed 15 of 18 points on offer.  Over the weekend, each needed late PKs to get their wins.  More on that below.  Their aggregate score was a whimpy 5-2.  Man City even had a man advantage over Wolves for the second half and still limped away with a 1-0 win.  As we mentioned, Aston Villa made Liverpool work for their 1-0 win.   Chelsea fell behind Leeds, rallied to go up 2-1, partly aided by a legit PK, then allowed a late equalizer; the Blues were able to walk away with all three after another foul in the box in the 94th minute gave them the game winner.

Midweek, Man City made hash of Leeds with a 7-0 thrashing. As noted Liverpool were not seriously tested in their 3-1 win over Newcastle.  Chelsea were the only side to drop points as they only managed a 1-1 draw at home to Everton; the Blues may have been unlucky there as the stats say they ran all over the Toffees.  So, 11-2 aggregate for the midweek and 16-4 over the two match weeks.  The gap between Chelsea in third and Arsenal in 4th (uh oh, two more wins for the Gunners) is eight, still the largest by far anywhere in the table. 

Saiss Matters

Saiss Does Make the Difference

Wolves played Man City tough on Saturday but came away with nothing.  Wednesday they played a tight match away at Brighton and got a 1-0 win thanks to a timely goal from Romain Saiss.  Like Aston Villa, Wolves have worked their way back up the table and currently reside in the 8th.

Bees Playing Hornets in Front of WASPs

Friday's match between Brentford and Watford was highly watchable.  Watford, despite being outplayed, were up 1-0 until late.  An 84th minute goal leveled things and a 96th minute PK gave Brentford the 2-1 come-from-behind win.

PKs and VAR

Six of game winners in the weekend contests came on PK calls, most really late.  The fun started on Friday with Brentford's PK in the 96th minute to steal all three points from Watford.  Newcastle fans were okay with that.  Man City benefited from a PK in the 66th minute for their slim victory over Wolves; we thought the handling call was incorrect.  We mentioned the Liverpool PK.  Chelsea needed two PKs, including a very soft call against Rudiger in the 94th minute to eventually tame Leeds.  Man United slipped past last place Norwich 1-0 after Ronaldo was sort of fouled in the box in the 75th minute. Lastly, we didn't mention this but the Leicester's first goal against Newcastle - and therefore technically the game winner - came on a PK after Lascelles sort of fouled Maddison.  

Don't agree with several of these calls, and not happy about their implications.  The good news though is that I think in all cases the VAR did the right thing.  Lascelles stuck his leg out but was withdrawing it - Maddison just aimed for it to make sure there was contact.  I thought it was exactly the kind of play the early season directive told referees to ignore.  But to have overturned would have been re-refereeing as opposed to correcting an obvious error.  Same for the handling in the Man City - Wolves match.  I thought the ball hit the side of the chest and the upper arm on the sleeve. Replays didn't prove that point one way or the other and Moss was right there for the call so it was good that the VAR left it alone. Ronaldo won a PK after the defender put his arms around him and Ronaldo went to ground.  I didn't think the contact was enough to make Ronaldo go down (ooh, how many times have people said that?); on the other hand, put your arms on the attacker like that, you take the risk and VAR stayed away again.  Lastly, Rudiger might have been pushed but he went down awfully fast for a big man.  However, there was a push and in no way could it be considered a clear and obvious error.

In many of these cases, I don't think they got the call "right" but they did use VAR correctly.

Ruh Roh

Positive tests for COVID are on the rise.   Here's the graph of weekly testing.  

One of last weekend's games was postponed.  Three of the midweek matches were called off.  Now, half of this weekend's matches are postponed.  Dennis sends along this article in which some are suggesting a shut down until the weekend of 1/8-9.  With ad hoc postponements like we've seen so far, some teams are going to be left cramming in matches later in the season, giving them a congested schedule that others will not face.  Also, a minor point I know, but it's hard to make sense of the table when some teams have played three less matches than others.

As of this moment, the team that most needs a postponement - Newcastle, who face Man City on Sunday - will not get one.  They need the services of Crash Davis.

Does This Make Them Lumberjacks?

Johnson after big save on Valeri

NYCFC needed another penalty shootout to fell the Timbers and capture the MLS Cup.  They had led
since a late first half goal by Castellanos but looked to be stunned by a last second, stoppage time goal from Portland that sent the match into extra time.  Neither managed to score so it was on to kicks from the spot.  Here, Sean Johnson was the star as NYCFC outshot the Timbers 4-2.  Highlights of the match here - it should open to about 4:00, the point where Sean Johnson made an excellent save in the shootout that solidified his pick as MVP of the match.  We also make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  We note with sadness that this particular save meant there would be no Valeri Tale ending for the Portland.

A Leaderboard You Won't Find on ESPN

    Goals by RP Management Clients

    Guiseppe Rossi -1 

Rossi (r) the client

We previously highlighted that Guiseppe Rossi is a valued client of RP Management.  See the picture (left) of him with RP Management Director of Investor Relations Michael B.  As detailed here, Rossi recently signed with Serie B club SPAL.  Turns out, it did not take him long to get back on the scoresheet. In his second appearance for the club, he bagged the game winner against Cosenza in the 58th minute.

Rossi the goal scorer

Easy Week (Unless You Carabao the League Cup)

Just Saturday and Sunday matches for Match Week 18.  (Ed. Note: the header was written before we heard about the weekend cancellations.)  On the 538 match prediction site, the colors range from light orange for close matches to dark orange for blowouts.  You can see an example here.  The bad news for this week is that I see a lot of dark orange.  The worse news is the darkest orange is reserved for Newcastle, who are given just a 6% change of winning and 12% of getting a draw.  That's 9:15 on Sunday on NBCSN.  I have no reason to doubt their numbers.

Arguably the most prestigious contest is Tottenham - Liverpool 11:30 Sunday on Peacock.  We can hope that 1) Spurs are healthy enough to field a team and 2) offer the Reds a serious contest.

Saturday's early risers can take in would have taken in Man United vs Brighton at 7:30 on NBCSN but that one is off.  Note that even with the recent loss to Wolves, Brighton still have fewer losses (4) than any clubs besides Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea.  The 10 am matches don't really stir the blood.  We'll go with Aston Villa Burnley to support Dennis and to keep an eye on a key relegation rival on NBCSN because now it's the only option.  Your other choices would have been Southampton - Brentford (Peacock), Watford - Crystal Palace (Peacock) and West Ham - Norwich (Peacock).  The Watford - Crystal Palace fixture might have actually been a good watch.  The "feature" 12:30 match on NBC is Leeds - Arsenal; probably worth checking out if only because Leeds just don't know when to quit.

Really early risers on Sunday can get up at 7 am for Everton - Leicester on NBCSN.  The Foxes thrashing of Newcastle notwithstanding, both of these sides have disappointed this year - a close contest is possible.  will have to find alternative programming.  For those wishing to skip the Newcastle car crash, Wolves - Chelsea at 9 am on USA is a good alternative.  

For those still following, the League Cup quarterfinals are Tuesday and Wednesday next week.  Tuesday is Arsenal - Sunderland and Wednesday has Brentford - Chelsea, Liverpool - Leicester and Tottenham - West Ham.  Note that one of these eight sides is really not like the others.  All matches are at 2:45 and available only on ESPN+ as far as I know.

Of course, by the time you read this, they may have shut down the league for a few weeks.  That would put a damper on the holiday season.

So Near and Yet So Far

 Certainly one of the stranger weeks in MLS history in the run up to the Union-NYCFC conference final.  Good results for Newcastle and Aston Villa.

Woulda Coulda Shoulda

A team purporting to be the Union and wearing Union jerseys took the field on Sunday to face NYCFC for the Eastern Conference title.  The problem was they were missing 4/5ths of the defense, a couple of strikers and their captain.  In total, 11 players were unavailable due to COVID protocols (see below).  The good news is that the makeshift line up made a go of it. The bad news is, they still lost 2-1.  

Aurelien Collin: The French defender made
in his only MLS appearance this season since 2019

With a back line of  Findlay, Collin and Harriel in place of Elliott, Glesnes and Wagner, fronting third string keeper Matt Freese, we might have expected the defense to be the problem.  They actually played pretty well as a unit.  In fact it was the only regular - Mbaizo - who ended up being the weak link, somewhat culpable on the first goal and definitely exposed on the second.  A minute on Aurelien Collin.  He had played one minute this year, late in a CONCACAF Champions League match.  He did not play at all in 2020.  His last MLS match was September 29, 2019.  By rights, he should have been subbed out by 65-70 minutes but there weren't really any good options.  Unfortunately, if you look at the winning goal, it's possible that even after Mbaizo's mistake, Collin could have denied the cross to Magno.  Not quite the fairy tale ending.  Just like for the team as a whole.

That we had trouble scoring wasn't a surprise.  Our offense has been pryzt for awhile.  The scoreless first half was a relief and better than we might have expected.  The Union took the lead on an own goal in the 63rd minute.  In reality, that was one of those own goals, where if the defender hadn't put it in, the attacker would have.  Probably.  It was shuhBILLkoh who was right there and he has been spotty lately but we think he puts that one away.  Unfortunately the lead did even outlast the blue smoke released by the Sons of Ben from the river end.  Maxi Moralez leveled things less than two minutes later.

It was at this point that, IMHO, the COVID shortened roster made the difference.  NYCFC could make subs while our options were severely limited.  This would have been when Curtin changed things up by putting Santos on for shuhBILLkoh to make NY deal with a faster, more wide open game.  Second, fatigue was becoming an issue and there weren't really any good choices.  This was a real problem given that NYCFC put a pile of fresh players on at 58 minutes.  The Union seemed hamstrung and a late goal from NYCFC inevitable.

Note I am not saying the Union would definitely have won without the COVID quarantine.  I am saying the last 30 minutes would have played out differently.  Not disparaging the effort the squad put up, just wishing that we could have seen how it would have played out with the regulars.

For me, viewing the playoffs as a quaint American tradition, I still rank last year's Supporters Shield season as the best in Union history.  On balance though, a deep run into CONCACAF Champions League, second in the Eastern Conference, a good run towards the MLS Cup, this was a good season as well, especially given the personnel changes that had to be addressed.  Here's hoping this off season is not about replacing losses but adding to what we have.

How Did This Happen?

Aside from the result on the pitch, we are still left with the question of how did 11 Union players find themselves sidelined for the final.  The MLS covid protocols are provided here.  Note that aside from testing positive for COVID, you can find yourself quarantined for five days for high-risk behavior (defined in Slide 16) and high-risk close contact.  Also note that you can get an exception to the quarantine for high-risk close contact if you are 1) vaccinated, 2) asymptomatic and 3) continuing to test negative.  

BFS Travel Consultant Jeff K circulated this article about the situation.  Though it leaves many questions unanswered, I took away two things - every player was vaccinated and that "no players broke the rules."  Given the exemption for vaccination, we are left with conclusion that players were either not asymptomatic or were testing positive or violated some aspect of the high-risk behavior provisions.  Technically, you could read the statement that "no player broke the rules" as ruling out high-risk behavior.  

In short, we really don't know what happened and may never know.  

In the Neighborhood

Neumann: A stone's throw from Subaru Park

So near and yet so far also applied to my situation as a fan on Sunday.  As I pulled into the parking lot
at Neumann for the recording gig, I realized how close I was to Subaru Park (see picture).  You can actually see stadium tucked in right next to the bridge.  Dennis pointed out the potential visual and audio spoiler alerts given that they set off fireworks for Union goals.  Didn't hear or see anything while recording the likes of Grieg and Strauss so I made it home to take in the match on dvr a few hours later.

Things Get Real for Salt Lake

In the Western Conference final, Portland finally put an end to the great playoff run from Real Salt Lake.  The Timber struck gold in the 5th minute and pretty much controlled the match.  A second goal in the 61st minute meant that another improbable finish from RSL was not in the cards.  That became even clearer when Herrera picked up a second yellow in the 79th minute.  Except for expected goals, the stats aren't as lopsided as I thought they would be, but the match did not feel close.

Last Points in 2021?

Though not on the scoresheet,
 Almiron was a force against Burnley

Newcastle managed to eke a 1-0 win at home over Burnley.  On the one hand, how excited can you get about barely beating the second or third worst team in the EPL at home?  On the other, if it's your first win of the season, turns out it's still a good feeling.  Neither side distinguished itself in the offensive department.  The game's only goal came when Burnley keeper Nick Pope spilled a rebound which fell to the feet of Callum Wilson.  The Magpie striker made the most of the gift as you can see in this week's YouTubeableMoment. Sweet fan cam experience there at SJP, as the crowd knew how important that goal was.

We shouldn't dismiss the defensive effort that held Burnley to one shot on target.  Also, Miguel Almiron got a start and made the most of it, earning high ratings even without getting on the scoresheet.  The Magpies have six points from their last five games and the effort on the pitch has been  admirable.  However, the next four fixtures are Leicester, Liverpool, Man City and Man United so points might be pretty scarce in these parts for awhile.  Maybe they can nick a point at Goodison Park on 12/30 but we need to face up to the possibility that the Magpies will end 2021 with the same 10 points they have now.

Love That New Manager Smell

Somehow Konsa's header is going to find it's
 way into the goal for the game winner

For Aston Villa at least, the new manager bounce is real and it's spectacular.  Under Steven Gerrard, the Villans have wins over Brighton, Crystal Palace and Leicester plus a narrow defeat to Man City.  The latest result was a solid comeback 2-1 win over Leicester, featuring two goals from defender Ezri Konsa.  Hold for a second while we confirm that.  Yes, it's correct.   That stats say maybe a draw was the fairer result here but at the same time this doesn't feel like an underserved three points.  The best part is despite the 3-1 record under Gerrard, I feel like this team can play even better.  

League of Their Own Part III

Maybe not as dominating a week as we've seen but the biggest gap in the table ( six points) remains between third and fourth.  Man City had an easy time beating Watford 3-1 and Liverpool scratched out a 1-0 win over Wolves.  Chelsea were not so fortunate, dropping all three points against West Ham in a 2-3 loss.  That was a great back and forth match that once again highlighted how the Hammers (and their maligned venue) have been totally rehabilitated since their near relegation two years ago.  To Michael B's delight, we note that Spurs 3-0 win over Norwich brings them two points of West Ham with a game in hand (vs Burnley.)

Leaving It Late

By my count, four matches were decided in stoppage time, another in the 87th minute and another in the 77th minute.  Liverpool got their game winner against Wolves in stoppage time, as did Everton in their entertaining contest with Arsenal.  Leeds (against Brentford) and Brighton (against Southampton) got the equalizers after the 90th minute.  Both of those were probably helpful to Newcastle's cause.  West Ham's unlikely winner came in the 87th minute while Man United were able to edge past Crystal Palace with a 77th minute tally from Fred.

RTFM

Schmeichel clearly has his hand on the ball

The incident with Ramsey's disallowed goal against Leicester put the general ignorance of FIFA Laws by people who should know better on display once again.  You can see the play here (should open to the spot but if it doesn't scroll to 6:00).  I was pretty sure the goal was going to be disallowed by VAR.  The rule is very clear, except somehow many, including ex-keeper Tim Howard, didn't really understand it.  The language is here:

A goalkeeper is considered to be in control of the ball with the hand(s) when:

• the ball is between the hands or between the hand and any surface (e.g. ground, own body) or by touching it with any part of the hands or arms, except if the ball rebounds from the goalkeeper or the goalkeeper has made a save

First, many didn't even know this was the definition.  Then, people got thrown off track by the exception at the end.  But that applies to the last phrase of the rule (or by touching it...), not the part about the ball between the keeper's hand and the ground.  Absolutely the correct call here.  Maybe you don't like the rule but take that up with the IFAB.  And before you lead the charge to change it, ask yourself how much do we want attackers hacking away at keepers?  

By the way, this mini-vent is not aimed at most fans.  The Laws of the Game are detailed and some of the finer points are not common knowledge.  But players and pundits have no excuse.  This is your job, learn the rules dammit.

Enter at Your Own Risk

BFS Scandinavian Consult Philip S sends along this clip from a recent women's UEFA Champions League match in which Sam Kerr "decleats" a pitch invader.  The article says she got a yellow card for the challenge.  I might argue it was shoulder-to-shoulder.  In any case, I'm happy to pay any fine she incurred.  On a more serious note, I don't think a yellow card is an option in this situation.  I couldn't find anything regarding a "reckless" challenge to a spectator.  However, the list of sending off offenses includes:

• physical or aggressive behaviour (including spitting or biting) towards an opposing player, substitute, team official, match official, spectator or any other person (e.g. ball boy/girl, security or competition official etc.)

Seems like it's a red card or nothing.

Busy Week Ahead

We have the MLS final Saturday at 3 pm on ABC; not sure if that is kickoff time or when the broadcast starts.  Usually I am in the school of root for the team that beat you.  However, I can't see myself cheering for a team that 1)plays in Yankee Stadium  and 2) is affiliated with Man City.  Not a big fan of artificial turf but I hear the Portland stadium is great otherwise.  So, go Timbers.  Or as Dennis noted, "10000% for Portland."  The projection at 538 is NYCFC 57/43.

In the EPL we have another week with two match weeks, one running from Friday-Sunday, the other Tuesday-Thursday.  Frankly, Matchweek 16 mostly offers a series of mismatches.  Newcastle at Leicester (Sunday at 9 on Peacock) may be one of the more competitive contests, which is saying something.  Certainly we will be tuning in for that one but with limited expectations.

On paper, the closest match is Crystal Palace - Everton Sunday at 11:30 on NBCSN.  We will also check in on Liverpool - Aston Villa (Saturday at 10 on USA) to see 1) if Villa can match their performance against Man City and 2) how the Liverpool crowd responds to the return of Steven Gerrard to Anfield. 

I think the schedulers might have the right idea putting Brentford - Watford on Friday at 3 pm (NBCSN)).  Hell, we'll watch anybody on a Friday afternoon.  You can rise early on Saturday to see Man City possibly lead the Wolves to slaughter (7:30 NBCSN). Your 10 am choices besides Liverpool - Aston Villa are Arsenal - Southampton or Chelsea - Leeds.  The "feature" 12:30 match is Norwich hosting Man United.  Going against the Leicester  - Newcastle Sunday 9 am fixture is Brighton - Spurs  (not so fast Sparky, just read that match is postponed due to COVID outbreak at Tottenham) or Burley - West Ham.  Just not a match week to get the blood flowing.

Matchweek 17 is a little better.  May we recommend something in a London derby?  Arsenal host West Ham Wednesday at 3 pm, wisely scheduled for NBCSN.

Tuesday we'll go with Norwich - Aston Villa in the hopes that Dennis's team helps us out.  Your alternates are Brentford - Man United or Man City Leeds.

Wednesday our choice as mentioned is Arsenal - West Ham.  But if, lower table is your style, Crystal Palace hosting Southampton should be a close match as well.  Your other choices are Brighton - Wolves and Burnley - Watford.  

Depending on whether the COVID issues get sorted out, for Thursday we would recommend Leicester - Tottenham.  That is partly based on one of your other choices being Liverpool - Newcastle.  Car crash anyone?  Or you could go with Chelsea - Everton, which might be okay

I did say a little better, not great.  

Shoot Out the Lights

 apologies to Richard and Linda Thompson

Hmm, maybe we can drop the word "dreaded" from the phrase "kicks from the spot."  The Union advance to the Eastern Conference Final with a shootout win over Nashville.  Also, a pile of results from the EPL, which may force us to the old habit of random observations rather than careful analysis of the contests.

We Love Kicks From the Spot

The Union's quest for their first conference final ever did not start well.  Nashville's pressure meant all we got was toothless possession.  Mukhtar got separation from Powell and put Nashville up at 38 minutes.  Only a scruffy-looking stoppage time goal from Gazdag (video here) allowed the Union to go in level at halftime despite being generally outplayed.

In the second half,  Curtin decided the "Christmas tree" 4-3-2-1 formation wasn't working and put Sergio Santos in and moved to a 4-4-2.  The good news is that the Union started generating chances.  The bad news is that Santos missed them, including an easy one, then committed a foul that took a go-ahead goal by Gazdag off the board.  Neither side could find the game winner in regulation or in added extra time.  On to the dreaded shootout.

Ice water in his veins - Jack McGlynn puts
 Union up 2-0 in shootout

Except it wasn't even close.  Blake made decent stop on Mukhtar, while Elliott buried his attempt.  Blake then made a fantastic full extension fantastic full-extension save on Godoy. Sergio Santos continued his bad awful night when Willis saved his mediocre attempt.  Muyl couldn't even get his shot on target.  Jack McGlynn then coolly stepped up to give the Union a 2-0 lead.  When Zimmerman missed the net, the Union were conference champions.  Jeff K speculates that Blake was so deep into the Nashville heads after the first two saves that in trying to be perfect on the subsequent two kicks, they couldn't even get their takes on target.  Full video of the shoot out is here, offered as this week's YouTubeableMoment,.  A more talented blogger or one with maybe more time would do some compilation of Blake's distraction dance before each kick.

In terms of stature, this win will have to rank above last week's win over the Red Bulls since it advances them to the conference final.  And it certainly didn't lack for drama.  Doesn't mean that Glesnes goal won't remain the highlight for all time.

Favorites Are Falling All Over the Place

What was Ted Lasso's line?  "Agin, my job just got easier."  In the other Eastern Conference final, New England and NYCFC traded goals in added extra time to finish at 2-2.  NYCFC prevailed in the shootout 5-3.  Once again, the Supporters Shield winner bails out early.  Not to minimize the opponent but playing NYCFC at home seems highly preferable to facing New England in Foxboro.  Especially with top scorer Castellanos suspended for the match after picking up two yellows against New England.

In the West, Real Salt Lake nipped Sporting KC with an improbably goal in stoppage time by Bobby Wood.  Colorado was ousted last week so the Western Conference final will feature the 4th seed against the seventh seed.

Not that I have a solution, but the MLS playoffs are developing a rich history of the leaving the top teams out of the picture.

Almost Up the Tyne Without A Paddle

We said anything less than 3-0 defeat at the Emirates would be a good day so the 2-0 loss to Arsenal wasn't unexpected.  Newcastle's offense consisted of long shots by Shelvey.  Lascelles and Ritchie both picked up their fifth yellow cards and got suspended the mid-week match.  No more need be said.

Three points were a long shot after Clark got
sent off for pulling down Pukki

A lively start against Norwich on Tuesday was ruined by Ciaran Clark's red card for DOGSO in trying to stop Pukki from a breakaway on goal in the ninth minute.  We are Clark fans generally but this was a screw up on the micro and macro level.  On the micro level, it's not clear that a teammate (Willock?) couldn't have gotten there to help out.  On the macro level, this was Norwich, so the possibility of going a goal down shouldn't have been all that frightening. 

The good news is that despite being behind the eight ball, Newcastle played really well.  Billy Gilmour was called for handling in the box and Callum Wilson converted Newcastle's first PK of the year.  The Magpies continued to defend well  but eventually Pukki, who always scores against the Magpies, leveled things in the 79th minute.  Though not helpful to get a draw against a key relegation rival at home, this was a great effort from the lads to  get a point despite playing down a man for over 80 minutes.

A League of Their Own - Continued

Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool were a collective 15-5 against their opponents, garnering 16 of 18 possible points (Chelsea draw with Man United was the only dropped points).  The gap between 3rd and 4th is now seven points.  The biggest gap anywhere else in the table is just three points.

Elsewhere, Villa were indeed good enough to turn away Palace 2-1 and played Man City tough in a 1-2 loss.  There were plenty of unhelpful results over the two match days with respect to Newcastle's relegation prospects including:

Brighton 0 0 Leeds

Brentford 1 0 Everton

Norwich  0 0 Wolves

Wolves 0 0 Burnley

Southampton 2 2 Leicester

Leeds 1 0 Crystal Palace 

At least Watford lost twice.  Somehow after losing to Man City and drawing Brighton, West Ham still retain fourth in the table.  The race for that spot is tight, with West Ham, Arsenal, Tottenham, Man United and Wolves (one of these is not like the others) separated by just three points. 

David De Gea in the News - Part I

Here's a statement no one could have foreseen in August:

Man United have struggled but would be a lot worse off if not for the inspired play of David De Gea.

David De Gea in the News - Part II

Maybe there is a way to stop players from the overacting after picking up a minor knock.  De Gea was stepped on during an Arsenal kick.  He promptly went into the fetal position, with his back to the play.  Problem was that the ball was still in play.  Arsenal kept playing and Smith-Rowe sent a shot from the top of the box past the prone De Gea for the opening goal.  Of course the Man United players erupted.  Inexplicably Martin Atkinson, despite not having called a foul on the play, signalled no goal.  Turns out, he was absolutely correct in not calling a foul because De Gea was stepped on by his own man (the soccer equivalent of the horror movie line "the calls are coming from inside the house").  Eventually common sense prevailed and the goal was allowed.  You can see the whole incident here.  Okay, he was stepped on.  I don't doubt that it hurt.  But as Lee Dixon pointed out, as a defender, unless your leg is falling off, you better get up and defend until the play is over.  

Poor Planning

Not thinking that the Union would be in the Eastern Conference final, a few months ago I recklessly agreed to record a concert for a friend this Sunday at 3 pm.  Won't be going to Subaru Park, won't be watching live.  Will be dvring and hoping I can get to about 9 pm without hearing the result.  Certainly, this will not be a walk in the park.  On the other hand, this is not a long shot either.  At 538 they have it 53/47 in favor of the Union.  That seems right to me.  The match will be on ABC.

The Western Conference final features favored Portland hosting Real Salt Lake Saturday at 6:30 on FS1.  We freely admit to a preference for RSL, as, should the Union win, they get to host the final.

Of course, there's also a full slate of EPL fixtures as well.  Some look mildly interesting.  Newcastle have a critical home date with Burnley; this might be the last chance for the Magpies to grab points in 2021.  The schedulers must have a good sense of potentially close, relegation-relevant contests as they put this one on NBCSN at 10 on Saturday.  It does have every appearance of being a fierce, low-scoring match.

Normally we would be all over the Aston Villa - Leicester clash Sunday at 11:30 (NBCSN) except we probably have to leave at half time to get to the concert.  This is a great test to see if  the Villans have figured things out; Leicester are struggling but will still be a challenge.

The League of Their Own threesome look like good bets to keep their distance despite all being on the road.  Chelsea have a London derby at West Ham (Saturday 7:30 on NBCSN), Liverpool are at Wolves (Saturday 10 am on USA) and Man City are the Saturday feature match on NBC, taking on Watford.

We would be happy to see Spurs handle Norwich (Sunday at 9 am on Peacock).  Same for Brighton taking the measure of Southampton (Saturday 10 am on Peacock); that would help Newcastle.  By the way, note though they have slipped a bit, only the top three have fewer losses (3) than the Seagulls.  

Leeds are favored over Brentford (Sunday at 9 on Peacock).  Ralf Rangnick appears to have cleared up his work permit issues and will be in the dugout as Man United host Crystal Palace, also Sunday at 9 on NBCSN.  And there's a Monday match (3pm on NBCSN) with struggling Everton (14th in the table, a mere eight points ahead of Newcastle) hosting Arsenal.  

Radio silence for me from 3 pm to 9 pm on Sunday.