Not Our Best

A less-than-stellar BFS derby, a not-too-competitive London derby and an unnecessarily close Union result.  Sigh.

One Moment of Quality

The BFS derby had been largely devoid of anything resembling good football and the uneventful first half was set to quietly expire at 0-0.  The problem is that Matty Cash has such a long throw-in that any ball into touch in the final, say, 20-25 yards is basically the equivalent of a corner for Aston Villa.  In the first half's final play, Cash lofted a throw into the box that Tyrone Mings flicked further into the box to the waiting foot of Danny Ings.  Well, "waiting foot" kind of understates what Ings did.  Check out his spectacular bicycle kick which we must reluctantly make this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Could be the goal of the year.  We also note the alliterative scoring combination here of Mings to Ings. The second goal came on PK after VAR suggested Lascelles had handled the ball in the box.  The new guidance for handling is more subjective than in the past:

  "A player is considered to have made their body unnaturally bigger when the position of their hand/arm is not a consequence of, or justifiable by, the player's body movement for that specific situation. By having their hand/arm in such a position, the player takes a risk of their hand/arm being hit by the ball and being penalised."" 

Close, but even thicker lines couldn't save the Magpies

Hard to argue the call.  While it was somewhat unlucky for Newcastle, it would have been equally
unlucky for Aston Villa not to get a goal out of that opportunity.  Newcastle didn't fold up shop and even looked to be poised to cut the deficit in half with plenty of time to go when Callum Wilson was fouled in the box by keeper Martinez.  Except VAR correctly identified that Wilson was offside in the buildup so no PK. 

Since we had no expectations of a result here, we were mildly encouraged by some of the things we saw.  The defense was basically solid; the two goals were an incredible bicycle kick and sort of unlucky PK.  The Magpies did generate a few decent chances as well and actually had more possession.  The problem is that of the nine shots, only one was on target, a very weak header just as the final whistle was blowing.  Realistically, we might have been tapped for two points after the first two matches so this is not a disaster of a start.  On the other hand, two points here and there is the difference between an excruciating season spent near the drop zone and a comfortable run through the lower mid table.

Side note: Did you see that Bruce started the exact line up I recommended in last week's blog?  I don't know if that's a good or bad thing.

Second side note: Dennis was generally pleased with the result. He felt a 2-1 final would have been a better reflection of the match.

Not Your Father's Arsenal-Chelsea

Romelu; It's good to be back

The final was only 0-2 but that score might flatter Arsenal.  Possession was 35/65, shots were 6/22 and xG was .8-3.0.  Welcome back Romelu Lukaku; he had a goal and an 8.2 rating in his return to the EPL.  On the EPL site, he got Player of the Match but as good as he was, we would have gone with Reece James for his goal and assist and a 9.0 rating.  

Mikel Arteta rockets to the top of the Sack Race, well ahead of Hasenhuttl, Munoz, Vieira, Bruce and Dyche.

Spoke Too Soon?

Because we were watching the BFS Derby, we couldn't take in what might have been the best match of the week, the 2-2 draw between Leeds - Everton.  Slightly embarrassed after singing the praises of Benitez in last week's post.  Twice the Toffees were up and twice Leeds came back.  I take a little comfort that 538 did have Leeds as slight favorite here.  Also, there is this glass is 7/8ths full analysis that notes the defense is shorthanded and that Benitez has only been there six weeks.

Blowouts Realized and Unrealized

We labeled three matches as potential blowouts. We'd have to say that prediction had mixed results, at best.  Man City did make short work of Norwich with a 5-0 win; at 538 they have Norwich with .05 expected goals.  Liverpool were clearly the better side in a 2-0 win and weren't all that pressed by Burnley.  Except, the game was still just 1-0 until late.  A second goal in the 69th minute allowed the Anfield faithful to take a deep breath.  Harvey Elliott played all 90 minutes and had a 6.9 rating.  

Man United didn't even get the W.  I did not see the match but the stats suggest they might have been a bit unlucky. 

West Ham - Leicester was not scheduled to be a blowout but a red card for Ayoze Perez meant the Hammers got to play 50 minutes with a man advantage.  The 4-1 final tells us they used it wisely.  

Atwell Must Not Have Gotten the Memo

Cool jerseys guys

Before the season, we heard about new instructions to referees related to offsides, handballs and
penalties.  The "memo" is here.  Proceed to the Wolves - Spurs match on Sunday. In the 8th minute, Alli runs onto a through ball from Regulon and ends up with "contacting" keeper Sa.  You can see the play here.  First of all, the contact is Alli dragging his leg over Sa.  Second, note the different directions of the ball and Alli.  Third, didn't we just read a memo about how "It's not sufficient to just say there was contact."  Also too, anytime the announcer says "the attacker was very clever there" in reference to a PK,  your antenna should go up.  Apparently between the time this happened and a shoulder-to-shoulder challenge minutes later in the Spurs box, Atwell did get the memo, correctly letting the play go.  

Wolves did not make Nuno's homecoming comfortable, but they just didn't have quality finishing to get even a draw, as Alli's PK was the only goal of the match.  Spurs have matching 1-0 wins and have yet to concede a goal.  Nuno must be doing something right.  Also, maybe Spurs deserve the win for the new away kit alone.

The week got even better for Spurs with news that Harry Kane would be staying in London in this year.

Elsewhere

The 0-0 draw between Crystal Palace and Brentford does sound like two sides that may be in for a long season.  Yeah, I know Brentford have four points and Newcastle none so I probably shouldn't be poking fun.  The Brighton Watford contest wasn't as bad as we expected but we still fault the schedulers for going with that one over Leeds Everton.  

Now I Really Don't Carabao It Cup

Newcastle had the run of play over Burnley but again could not score.  In the League Cup, they right to kicks from the spot.  Marksmen Almiron and St. Maximin both missed and the Magpies went down 3-4.  Newcastle join Crystal Palace has the only EPL teams already gone; the Eagles also lost to an top division side - Brentford.   

I do care about Champions League, Europa Cup and Europa Conference League (in that order) but don't have time to go through all of that right now.  Basically each has completed their earlier qualification rounds and are proceeding to group stage play.  

 No, I Mentioned the Bisque

For 86 minutes on Saturday, it looked like the best part of the trip to Subaru Park was going to be the sausage sandwich and Sterling Pig pilsner.  Despite having the lion's share of possession, the Union were down 0-1 late thanks to a well-timed Montreal counterattack in first half stoppage time (second time today for that crap).  Despite getting the ball into dangerous positions, they weren't getting shots on target; some were blocked but sometimes an appetizing cross was left, well, uneaten.  For at least the second time this season, Jim Curtin determined that 0-2 was only marginally worse than 0-1 so he subbed out defender Olivier Mbaizo for midfielder Quinn O'Sullivan.  And it worked again. Jack Elliott, who's ball skills and passing bely his status as a center defender, found O'Sullivan at the top of the box (you never score from there) and the youngster buried the shot.  We make it this week's Runnerup YoutubeableMoment.

The advanced stats say the 1-1 draw was fair result here and that's probably right.  Not a great result as the Union were strong favorites for this one and the three points would have put some distance between the Union and the playoff hopefuls.  It's true that Montreal not getting all three points was helpful in that they didn't gain any ground.  On the other hand, the result demonstrates that this year the Union's focus will be on making the playoffs and getting as good a seed as possible, not winning the Supporters Shield.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve:  What do you call an attempted Union through ball?

Jeff K:  A goal kick for the opposition

Does This Say Union or What?

Somethings are difficult for a franchise that has only been around for 12 years.  Like the Ring of Honor has one name - Sebastien LeToux.  More like a Dot of Honor. Last Saturday the Union had Alumni Night.  Ray Gaddis was there.  Fred was there.  Ryan Richter was there.  Wait, Ryan Richter?  Jeff K and I were stumped.  Turns out Richter was with the Union in 2011 but he never appeared in an MLS game.  Richter did go on to play for Toronto FC and also played for several USL clubs.  So, we're not questioning his soccer chops, we just thought the Union alumni tag was a bit thin.  Like maybe get people that actually appeared in a game.

Another Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve (late in first half with Union and Montreal level at 0-0): At 45 minutes I said to Jeff K, I just hope they don't do what Newcastle did.  A minute later...

Dennis: So you take full responsibility for the goal.  Got it.

The Coming Weeks - CONCACAF World Cup Qualifiers Alert

Not sure I'll be able to post next week so we'll take a look out for the next few weeks.

All the EPL matches are crammed into Saturday and Sunday.  Some good stuff but we are squarely focused on Newcastle - Southampton.  Silly to think that a Week 3 match is critical except this is the type of fixture from which the Magpies need at least a point.  On Peacock Saturday at 10 with me on the road so not sure if I'll get to see it live.  

As to the good stuff, Man City host Arsenal at 7:30 on Saturday morning (Peacock).  Not a great place for Arteta to go to right the ship; 538 has that at 69% for City, 12% for Arsenal, 19% draw.  The feature match at 12:30 on NBC looks like a feature match this week - Liverpool vs Chelsea.  The Reds are slight favorite over the Blues, probably because it's at Anfield.  

The other undefeated sides have a good chance to stay that way.  Spurs host Watford on Sunday at 9 (Peacock) while West Ham have a home match against Crystal Palace Saturday at 10 (Peacock).  Oh, sorry Brighton, didn't even notice you there sitting undefeated.  Still, facing Everton at home (Saturday at 10 on NBCSN), a win is not out of the question.

Wolves have (out) played Leicester and Tottenham so far and all they have to show for it is a pair of 0-1 losses.  Doesn't get any easier either as they host Man United on Sunday at 11:30 on NBCSN.  Every reason to think this will be a good watch for the neutral.  Aston Villa continue their relatively easy opening with a home match against Brentford (Saturday at 10 on CNBC).   Rounding out the schedule is Norwich-Leicester (Saturday at 10 on Peacock) and Burnley-Leeds (Sunday at 9 on NBCSN).

In a perfect world, we'd watch Man City-Arsenal, Newcastle-Southampton, Liverpool-Chelsea on Saturday, then Tottenham-Watford and Wolves-Man United on Sunday.  Neutrals might want to sub out Newcastle for Brighton-Everton.

Saturday night is another six-pointer for the Union as they travel south to face DC United (8 pm on PHL-17).  We may have to be satisfied with a draw here.

The Hexagon Is Now An Octagon

The last step of CONCACAF used to be a six-team round robin affair.  Now there are eight.  You play each country - home and away - and the top three go to Qatar, while fourth place has a play-in opportunity.  Details can be had here.  Because BFS might not post next week, we draw your attention to the fact that the USMNT will have three matches during the upcoming international break.  They face El Salvador away next Thursday (9/2), Canada at home on Sunday (9/5) and head back south to face Honduras on Wednesday (9/8).  That seems like a brutal schedule - three matches in seven days with significant travel.  Depth might be important.  Not sure about TV coverage but Paramount+ will definitely have the games.  A quick search yielded disappointingly little in the way of predictions but I did find this.

Forecast calls for soccer, lots of it.

Oh To Be A Neutral

What a great weekend to be an unaffiliated fan of the EPL, for whom a match is judged by entertainment value rather than a specific result.  Some of us were not so lucky.  Still, there are probably some happy faces among our readers.  And the Union got a tasty win as well.

'Tis Better to Have Led and Lost Than Never to Have Led at All

Joe can't save us this time - Author of many of last year's
 late game heroics - Joe Willock - was not in uniform
 because the transfer was completed so late

Eff Shakespeare. And the horse he rode in on.  The fact that Newcastle were up - twice in fact - on West Ham does nothing to make the 2-4 final feel any better than an 0-2 loss.  An early goal, some excellent counterattacking and great crosses from Allan Saint-Maximin and Matt Ritchie gave the Magpies a 2-1 halftime lead.  It was fun while it lasted.  The Hammers got the equalizer by the 53rd minute, then added two more in the 63rd and 66th minutes.  The first of those was particularly galling in that it was the result of a soft PK call, which PK was saved by Freddie Woodman but the rebound was put away by Tomas Soucek.  No, the second half was not pretty at all.

Many jumped immediately on Emil Krafth's performance at center back, with some reason.  Not sure what the thinking was to start him there anyway, he's a wing back.  But it's not like Fernandez and Clark were that much better.  I never found out why Lascelles didn't start; Schar wasn't in because he's not fit yet.  Matt Ritchie contributed to the goal but he failed to go with Soucek on the PK rebound and was beaten other times as well.  Shelvey wasn't good either.  This was a team suck.  

Last spring Newcastle's resurgence at least partly coincided with Jacob Murphy and Matt Ritchie getting regular time in the wingback slots.  But if the defense is this leaky, their attacking focus may be a luxury we can't afford.  I won't wimp out here - I would start a back three of Lascelles, Fernandez and Schar (if fit, Clark if not), Murphy and Ritchie at wingbacks, midfield of Almiron, Hayden (or S Longstaff?) and Willock, with ASM and Wilson up top.  If we get ripped up again, we'll have to go back to more defensive wingbacks.  

Louise Taylor of The Guardian offered a succinct and accurate summary of last year, noting that Newcastle: 

were often excruciating to watch as they ground their way to a slightly flattering 12th."

I know it's only one match and West Ham are projected to be a top ten side but it already feels like deja vu all over again.

Snatching A Close One from the Jaws of a Blowout

For about 70 minutes, Aston Villa's performance at Watford was a massive let-down. The scoreline (0-3) was bad enough but worse was how easily they were getting chewed up and how out-of-sync everything looked.  That Grealish was gone and Watkins was out with an injury could explain some of it.  More generously, maybe Dean Smith hadn't quite figured out how to put the new pieces together.  Certainly Matt Targett was exposed on the left side; wonder how much of that was lack of help from Nakamba and Ashley "No Longer" Young.  Buendia didn't add much (anything?) to the attack.  Things got better with Leon Bailey's entrance at 60 minutes.  The Villans got one back in the 70th minute and were on the front foot the rest of the way.  A stoppage time PK made the final 2-3; arguably a draw was probably a fair result here.  On balance, I think once Dean Smith gets the balance right, this will be a fun team to watch.

Who Needed Harry More?

Turns out it was Man City.  Various developments meant that Harry Kane dressed for neither Tottenham or Man City on Sunday.  And what a match it was.  City had a clear possession edge which didn't translate into any goals.  Spurs were lively in the counterattack so this was not one way traffic.  Early in the second half, Bergwijn started one of those counters, then fed Son Heung-min down the right hand side.  Son's finish was sublime.  You can see the whole play as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  In some ways though, the YouTubeableMoment was the rest of the match.  Unlike with Mourinho, Spurs kept attacking.  And also unlike with the Special One, the team played with heart and soul that's been missing.  They deserved the 1-0 and all three points.

Now, what happens with Harry?  Some update here.  

A Moment 74 Years in the Making

You would cry too if this happened to you: a win in your
team's first appearance in the top division in 74 years

Gunner fans will be forgiven for not sharing in the excitement, but the return of first division football to Brentford went like dream.  Recall that this is a club that last appeared in the top division in 1946-47.  The stadium was rocking, even more so when Sergi Canos put the Bees up in the 22nd minute.  Arsenal had some chances but could not break through.  When Christian Norgaard doubled the lead at 73 minutes, a win first time out looked real.  At full time, it was a tear-stained lovefest.  The players and manager Thomas Frank took a victory lap, occasionally heading to the stands to shake hands.    For me the moment is captured by the image on the right - a long-time fan with tears streaming down his face.  Think about the loyalty of  the fans who stayed with Brentford, located in West London. All these years they rooted for a lower division club when there were any number of Premier League teams basically just around the corner.  Hell, Chelsea is only seven miles away. The powers-that-be should pay attention to this stuff.  It's why the reaction to the proposed Super League was so swift and intense.   

Uh Oh, Again

Last year we maybe got ahead of ourselves with early season excitement about a revamped Everton side.  After a hot start, they slid steadily down the table, ending up 10th.  Never one to learn from my mistakes, I will again suggest we pay attention to the Toffees.  This is based mostly on my admiration for the work of Rafa Benitez, their new manager.  Following him during his tenure at Newcastle, I can appreciate both his ability to judge talent and his tactical acumen.  He will get the most out of what he has and he has plenty to work with here.  

Elsewhere

Top table denizens Liverpool, Man United and Chelsea got clear wins in their openers, though none faced what would be considered formidable opposition.  Liverpool took their time but eventually dispatched Norwich 3-0.  Chelsea coasted past Crystal Palace, also 3-0.  Sure it's early but the Canaries and the Eagles are probably in for a relegation fight.  Leeds are like a chicken with its head cut off - they could be down by three or four goals but they still run around like they have a chance.  It does make for entertaining football so even though Man United blew them out 5-1, it was hard to turn away.

Brighton got two goals late to take a 2-1 win over Burnley; yeah, that'll leave a mark.  The stat sheet says maybe Wolves deserve a draw but the scoreline was 1-0 for Leicester.  Best news there was that Raul Jimenez made his first start since fracturing his skull last November.

Conversation That Didn't Take Place But Could Have

Dennis: Did you say Brentford have a Jedi knight at striker?

Steve: No, I said the Forss is with them

Conversation That Didn't Take Place and Did

Dennis: Looking at these full stadiums makes me wonder how dead the south will be once college football starts

Steve: Literally or figuratively?  Too soon?

Dennis: Both and no

Forest Green Sighting!

Liverpool's Harvey Elliott - He looks better in a
Forest Green kit (Photo - Andrew Powell Getty Images)

The Liverpool match gave me a chance to see my latest Forest Green signing Harvey Elliott.  In Football Manager, Liverpool were willing to let me have him on a season-long loan for what seems like an extremely reasonable $300,000.  In real life, he is certainly full of run.  In virtual life through two matches he's had ratings of 8.4 and 7.3 with a goal and numerous chances created.  Making me look good.

So in my virtual world, Forest Green are now in the Championship Division looking at long odds to do well.  Within the game itself, the oddmakers project us to finish 22nd out of 24, meaning we get relegated.  In Genie Scout, a scouting utility created for FM players, we are ranked 19th; at least that would keep us in the division.  In my previous tenure with Chester, I recall that we ended up being a "surprise package," earning promotion to the premier league at the first time of asking.  Maybe we can do it again.

Answer to Last Week's Trivia Question

Start Spreadin' the News

The Union got a much needed 1-0 win over NYCFC at a windy but mostly dry Subaru Park on Wednesday night.  Neither side was big on creating chances, though NY missed a couple of good ones.  The stats say NY was the better side but to my eyes the Union looked in it the whole way.   A solid performance from the back line, an excellent yellow cardless effort from Martinez, and tireless work from Flach. The game winner from Bedoya can be seen here; great cross from Wagner and Bedoya figures out where he needs to be to emphatically put it away.  An aside, WTF is Johnson doing raising his arm calling for offside?  That wasn't even close.  Dude, that's embarrassing.

A peep at the standings shows just how important that win was.  Despite the W, they are 4th in the table, but 5th in points per game.  A loss would have put them more clearly into the group fighting for a playoff berth as opposed to the group with hopes of a second place finish.  I say second because at 46 points, New England are unlikely to be caught at this point.

In Praise of Ted Lasso

BFS Historical Consultant Mackenzie W offers a reason why Ted Lasso is so great:

The antidote to toxic masculinity is empathetic masculinity, which is what Ted Lasso brings to his role as coach

Fillebrown Derby

Some decent matches for Week 2, but here at the offices of BFS, the focus will be on Aston Villa - Newcastle.  All signs point to an AVL win; 538 has it at 49% AVL, 27% NEW, 24% draw.  The good news for the Magpies is we expect to have Joe Willock in the starting eleven.  You can see the match at 10 am Saturday on NBCSN.

There is a London derby too, with Arsenal hosting Chelsea at 11:30 Sunday NBCSN.  These two sides have been heading in opposite directions for a while now.  Also intriguing is Monday's 3 pm game on NBCSN between West Ham and Leicester, two of the sides we might see flirt with a top four finish and definitely looking good for 5th-8th finish.  If I wasn't otherwise occupied with Newcastle - Aston Villa, might be inclined to check out Leeds - Everton - could be a fun match to watch from start to finish. Nuno Espirito Santo will find out if you can go home again as he takes Tottenham on the road to face Wolves (Sunday at 9 on NBCSN).

There's an early relegation showdown Saturday at 10 on Peacock between Crystal Palace and Brentford.  Also some potential blowouts - Liverpool - Burnley (7:30 Saturday on Peacock), Man City - Norwich (10 am Saturday on USA, Southampton - Man United  (Sunday at 9 on Peacock)

No offense intended but in what world would Brighton - Watford be considered the feature match worthy of the Saturday 12:30 slot on NBC?  

I'll be back at Subaru Park Saturday night to see the Union take on Montreal (8pm on PHL-17). The Impact, sorry, CF Montreal, are in the chase pack, just on the good side of the playoff break point.  Three points are important here to keep us in the hunt for second and out of the playoff scramble.

I hate to admit how much other stuff I've been getting done in the absence of mid-week EPL action.

Let the Games Begin

After a few months of "subsisting on scraps" like the Euro Champions, Gold Cup, Tokyo Olympics and the MLS,  we have the EPL back.  The bad news is that they appear to have largely abandoned the mid-week fixtures that we came to rely on in the last year or so.  Meanwhile, the Union had two tough away matches

A Good Loss?

Listening to and reading the pundits, one might conclude that the Union's 1-2 loss to the Revolution was an awesome achievement.  I kid to some extent but there was a lot of gushing about how well things worked out up there.  There was a long list of reasons that this was a tough fixture.  Second match of the week, on the road, on turf, against the first place team, etc.  In addition, Jim Curtin was adamant about rotating the squad in advance of Thursday's CONCACAF Champions League semi-final against Club America.  Thus, we saw a lot of the kids, most of the first teamers played less than 60 minutes.  Oh, and Curtin put them out in an unfamiliar 3-4-2-1.  

High School Yearbook photo for Paxten Aaronson

And in fact, it was a solid performance.  The kids played well and Paxten Aaronson got his first professional goal.  Actually, we can't leave it at that because this was no simple goal.  Check out the settle, the touch to get clear and the scorching finish in this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Nice work; they should show it at his high school graduation next year.  O'Sullivan and McGlynn weren't bad either and Stuart Findlay was okay at the back; all had better ratings than most of the regulars.  New England keeper and USMNT star Matt Turner was put to work several times, enough that he took home Player of the Match.  This was a close contest and a draw would have been a fair reflection of the match.  So, yes, they played the kids, rested the regulars and still nearly came away with a draw.  Yes, it could have been a blow out.  Yes, they did get several good things out of the game.  But one of them wasn't a point.  

A Good Halftime Deficit?

Of course, the whole point of the exercise in New England was to have our best out there for the CONCACAF Champions League match to ensure that the tie wouldn't be out of reach when they play the second leg back in Philly in September.  And it worked, sort of.  The first half was pretty much all Club America and they did get a goal on a deflection off Gazdag.  Second half was much tighter and there were signs that the Union might get an away goal or at least come away with just an 0-1 loss. That hope was ruined by some - IMHO - re-refereeing by Walter Ramirez.  Jose Martinez coughed the ball up deep in Union territory, then compounded his error with a questionable challenge in the box.  Ramirez was right there and emphatically signaled no foul.  Did I mention he emphatically spread his arms like an MLB umpire making the safe sign?  VAR Drew Fisher suggested he look at it again.  Not clear and obvious to me and that it took Ramirez and good minute or two to change his mind suggests it was not clear and obvious to him either.  Except he changed the call.  Spot kick converted and now the deficit is 0-2 heading back to Philly.

At 0-1, I was feeling like the strategy of going with the kids in New England at the risk of getting no points was probably worth it.  Less happy that it's a two goal deficit but with less than our best out there, maybe it would have been 0-3 or worse.   This was a good showing on the national stage and the match is by no means over.  The problem is that a 3-1 win at Subaru Park won't be enough now given the away goal rule.  

A New Hope

Well, for some clubs anyway.  The 2021-22 EPL season kicks off, auspiciously on Friday the 13th.  As things stand, this could be the first "normal" season season since 2018-2019.  The schedule isn't compressed, there'll be fans in the stands, and Jose Mourinho is coaching somewhere other than the EPL.  

We'll review the league more broadly in a minute but first a word about Newcastle.  I see two possibilities this year.  One, they get off to a decent start and stay a step ahead of the relegation battle but don't threaten seriously for a top ten finish.  This is the good scenario.  In the other, they get off to poor start, spend way too much of the season in or close to the relegation zone before making a narrow escape with a decent finish.  So going in, the best thing I can say is that I'm cautiously optimistic they won't get relegated.  What a fricking low bar.  

This outpouring of optimism is only possible because today Newcastle finally got the Joe Willock deal over the line.  Mind you, this does not improve the team over last year, merely keeps them where they were - a solid 12-16th place team.

Elsewhere, the sun is shining.  I need only look at developments in Birmingham, where Aston Villa, despite losing their talisman Jack Grealish, have every reason to think they can improve on last year's 11th place finish.  How is this possible?  Well, basically they replaced Grealish - who you'll recall was out for a chunk of last season anyway - with three players, including Emi Buendia, Leon Bailey and Danny Ings who provide creativity, skills and goal scoring potential.  They added Axel Tuanzebe to shore up the defense as well.  They are the anti-Newcastle, all the ambition that my club fails to show.

I did a survey of table predictions that included The Guardian, CBS, NBC, The Bleacher Report, GiveMeSport, 442, Pundit Arena, The Bank, the Supercomputer, Paddy Power and 538.  The table below summarizes the 11 predictions

Man City haven't landed Harry Kane yet but even without him, people are pretty much handing the Citizens the title.  Not hard to understand that.  Most pundits see Chelsea, Liverpool and Man United fighting for the other top four slots. In fact, in the 11 projections, none had any other sides in the top four.  Leicester, Arsenal and Tottenham get most of the picks for 5th to 7th.

The mid-table could be Everton, Leeds, West Ham and Aston Villa.  The pundits seem quite confused about Brighton, picking them as high as 9th but as low as 19th and relegation; that's the biggest spread by far.  Crystal Palace could be an enigma too, as many see them as a serious relegation candidate while others have them pegged as the Newcastle of London.  Newcastle average out at 14th with a high and low of 12th and 16th.  Didn't need to do the math to see that one coming.

Of the newcomers, Watford look DOA, while Brentford and Norwich have some backers.  Still, they seem likely to struggle to stay up.  I was mildly surprised with Southampton at 15th.  Ings and Bertrand are gone and Vestergaard may be on his way to Leicester.  The Saints were 14th last year and don't seem to have gotten better.

There are of course plenty of articles out there previewing the season.  My favorite series continues to come from The Guardian.  You can see Watford's writeup here; the tab on the left allows you to scroll through all the teams.  The Trending Topics section at the bottom of each article is at once enlightening and hilarious.  A couple of examples:

“If we don’t get another striker in and Wilson gets injured we’ll be relegated.” (Newcastle)

“Can we stop the incessant 9-0 chat?” (Southampton)

 

Who's In Charge Here?

Can you match the manager with the club?  

Answers next week.

Religion Is Dead?

Check out the final line in this article from The Guardian:

There are not currently any suitors for Jesus.

Your DVR Can't Save You Now

As we hinted at the top, the EPL is moving back to concurrent versus sequential scheduling, which means it's much harder to see most/all of the games without spoilers.  Even judicious use of the DVR will require tricks like towels over the corner of the screen if you don't want you to see other scores.  You may have to make choices.  We'll offer what help we can.

Friday is easy.  Stop working - or continue not working - at 3 pm and watch the season opener between Brentford and Arsenal on NBCSN.  Might not be a great match but on a Friday afternoon with temps in the high 90's, what else you gonna too?

Those 7:30 Saturday morning fixtures are back.  This week it's Man United vs Leeds on NBCSN.  At 538, they suggest that Man United is a heavy favorite but last year Leeds generally put up a good effort.  At 10 am, you have five to choose from.  Three are on Peacock - Burnley v Brighton, Chelsea v Crystal Palace and Watford v Aston Villa.  Everton-Southampton is on NBCSN while Leicester - Wolves is on USA.  We'll probably go with check out the Grealishless Aston Villa to see how things go with the new recruits.  If you're looking for a tight contest, Burnley-Brighton might be your best choice.

The NBC feature match at 12:30 is Norwich versus Liverpool.  That doesn't look to be a close one.

Sunday has two of interest to us.  At 9 Newcastle host West Ham on NBCSN and at 11:30 Man City travel to London to face Spurs.  We're expecting a close one at St. James' Park and certainly have some hopes of at least a point.  Tottenham will have their hands full.

The Union have the weekend off but have a tough midweek contest at home vs NYCFC.  Need the points but a draw is probably more realistic.

Good news is you don't have to worry about the weekends anymore.  They are booked solid for the near future.

Hardware of Different Colors

Both the US national teams came away with medals from their recent competition, although the colors might be reversed from earlier expectations.  The Union get four points from two matches.  Man City continue to stockpile talent while Newcastle can't close on their number one priority.

US Beat Mexico While Qatar Gently Weeps (apologies to The Beatles and hat tip to Michael B)

The USMNT adopted a risky formula for the Gold Cup knockout rounds - keep a clean sheet and score late.  But it worked.  Against Qatar in the semi, the strategy meant being outplayed in the first half and relying on a big save from keeper Thomas Middleditch Matt Turner.  Also, meant surviving a PK in the second half - Turner didn't even have to make the save as the ball soared over the crossbar.  A trio of subs combined for the game winner in the 86th minute as passes Eryk Williamson and Nicholas Joe Akini  Gioacchini set up Gyasi Zardes.  

Mostly more of the same in the final, though I would argue that the US weren't outplayed as much as they were in the semi, especially in the second half.  Doesn't mean that Turner wasn't call upon for a key save.  Great entertainment - all the snarl you'd like to see in contest between these two rivals.  Hector Martinez had a busy night, whistling the teams for 51 fouls, 31 by the US.  Don't recall feeling that things were going to boil over though.  Nobody scored in regulation so they went to extra time.  Just as we were ready to accept that this one would be decided by kicks from the spot,  Kellyn Acosta (who had an awesome game/tournament) launched a free kick into the box that defender Miles Robinson deftly headed in for what would be the game winner. 

Separated at birth?
 Middleditch (top) and Turner

We'll make that this week's YouTubeableMoment; key question is whether Robinson intended to take his shirt off but stopped because he didn't want a yellow card or he was mobbed too quickly by his teammates.

We'll discuss competition management theory in more detail below but this was a win-win for Berhalter and the USMNT.  We don't have to call it the JV or the B-team or anything like that but you do have to acknowledge that some of our better players were not rostered for this competition.  And it looks like a brilliant decision.  A new group of younger players got international experience and not just in friendlies, but in nasty, physical contests with hardware on the line.  This has to be a plus when we get to World Cup qualifying in the fall.  Oh, and they got gold anyway.  Winning.

It's Not Superstition If It Works

We were in Bethesda on Thursday and took in the Gold Cup semi vs Qatar in the hotel bar.  When the PK was called, Laura's sister Sandy headed to the bathroom.  I was adamant that she couldn't leave until the kick was taken - bad karma.  She reluctantly agreed to wait.  After the PK was missed and she sped off, the guy sitting behind us who was also watching called out "Thanks, Sandy."  Obviously he appreciated her effort as well.

No, Canada 

Things weren't as great for the USWNT in Japan.  They continued a string of flat performances and fell 0-1 to Canada.  While the PK that decided things was too much re-refereeing for my taste, the US did nothing to deserve the win anyway.  Just not good enough so the US played Australia for the bronze medal.  Here they looked more like the team we remember.  A cheeky goal off a corner by Rapinoe which she followed up with great volley shot 13 minutes later.  Two from Carli Lloyd gave the US a 4-1 lead by the 51st minute.  Things got a touch hairy from there as the Aussies got one back quickly, hit the post shortly after and added one more in stoppage time to keep things in doubt until the final whistle.  More than the score, this was the first time the team looked anything like what we've come to expect.

On the one hand, bronze looks like the appropriate color medal for performance in this tournament.  The problem is the expectation that the only acceptable outcome is gold.  And this team was not of that standard.  Head coach Vlatko Andonovski took the opposite route than Berhalter - sticking with the most veteran team possible.  Hard to criticize him for that - the Olympics are several levels above the Gold Cup in terms of prestige and importance.  He also took pains to rotate players, sometimes making substitutions that didn't make much sense.  Maybe he overthought that aspect.  On the other hand, look at the performance in bronze medal match; would the team have been totally gassed and unable to compete without the rotation throughout the competition?   

What is clear though is that the core of the team we've watched since 2015 probably has played their final international competition.  The World Cup is in just two years but even that is probably too far away.  I would be reluctant to pink slip Andonovski off of this performance but he has serious work to do before 2023.

Four Should Have Been Six

The Union drew 1-1 with Chicago and easily pinned back Toronto 3-0.  Four points sounds good until you note that these were both home games against teams far down in the table.  It gets worse when you hear that the Union were up a man from 34 minutes on against Chicago but could not find a game winner.  Some of that feels unlikely - expected goals were 2.7 - .45.  But they didn't look all that dominant after the sending off.  A frustrating watch.

Things were much better Wednesday night as the boys got busy early.  The back of the neck header from Glesnes was a touch lucky but the goal was certainly deserved.  The pressure continued and a marvelous through ball from Jack Elliott sent Santos in alone on the Toronto keeper, who didn't get ball but did get Santos; Gazdag efficiently dispatched the PK.  Minutes later Santos got one for himself.  The only thing I remember of note from that point on was the ridiculous PK call on Jack Elliott, who never touched the attacker.   The replay here isn't as clear as the one we saw on the stadium screen but it was the attacker who actually kicked Elliott.  In a classic case of "ball don't lie," the take was crappy and Blake saved it to preserve the clean sheet.

Glass half full analysis is that the Union are in third, one point behind second place Orlando.  Glass half empty view is that fourth and fifth place Nashville and New York City have more points per game.  Also, as discussed in more detail here, Jamiro Monteiro is likely heading to Holland or Belgium in an attempt to be closer to his family.  The Gazdag signing takes much of the sting out of this transfer.

Worst Draft Excluder Evah

Even I Almost anybody can be an MLS level draft excluder.  All you have to do is lie down behind the wall on a free kick and be willing to let the ball hit you if the shooter goes low.   I mean, it's just not that hard.  Maybe not.  Check out the Fire's Fabian Herbers on Kai Wagner's free kick here.  I can't tell whether he never stretched out completely, or worse, came up from the prone position before the kick was taken.  In any case, the wall jumped, Wagner shot low and the ball got past Herbers for a goal.  That simply cannot happen.  All you have to do is lie down on the job.  Or as Mackenzie might say, "Dude, you had one job."

Transfer Follies

With the start of the 2021-22 season less than a week away, it's been a quiet summer transfer window to date, with a few notable exceptions.   Grealish to Man City is big.  Villa, anticipating the loss, have been active, adding Buendia, Bailey and Ings.  Man United got Sancho.  Kane may or may not be going to Man City.  Ah, but one thing is constant.  Newcastle hasn't done sh...squat.  The primary target has been getting Joe Willock back, hopefully on a permanent basis.  The reported transfer fee of £22-25 million seems reasonably; the problem may be that Arsenal can't make their mind up.  And Villa look to have taken the lead on another Magpie target, Axel Tuanzebe.  I keep hearing talk of Aaron Ramsey coming to Newcastle but that seems crazy; no way Ashley would agree to pay his wage bill.  

I have begun to survey the EPL predictions and hope to report the results of my research in next Friday's post.  Not optimistic heading into the season.  Maybe only Southampton of the returning sides has fallen below Newcastle at this point.  Even with Willock, we are probably no better than 15th.

Easy Weekend

For BFS I mean.  The Union have to travel to face New England at Gillette Stadium, second only to Yankee Stadium in MLS venues I dislike.  They are the top team in the conference so this will not be easy; 538 has 50% for NE win, 23% for draw so a point would be awesome.  Match is at 6 pm and though Gil Scott Heron said The Revolution Will Not Be Televised, you can catch this one on PHL 17 or ESPN+.