Once-Upon-A-Tyne

Schar gets a foot in to save the day

A late Christmas present from Newcastle as they grab an unlikely 0-0 from Liverpool.  Expectations
here were for an outing similar to Saturday's 0-2 loss to Man City (see below).  Indeed, the Magpies came out in the 5-4-1 formation that screams "we're parking the bus."  However, from the opening, Newcastle did manage to generate some decent counterattacks.  In all, a much more positive feel.  Except later on, there was that old sinking feeling that we were running out of gas and this was going to end 0-1 or 0-2.  And it would have if not for the heroics of Karl Darlow and Fabian Schar.  Darlow added four more to his league leading save total; several are on display in this game highlight package (also this week's YouTubeableMoments) which shows mostly saves by the two keepers.  Schar's extended leg (photo right) was the only thing keeping Mane' from tapping in the likely game winner.  Yeah, Darlow might have committed a foul there. 

The effort was probably more important than the point.  Still dealing with injuries and covid side effects, they earned a draw against the league leaders.  If they play like this against lesser lights, they should be fine.  Some interesting decisions coming up for Bruce.  Dubravka is healthy and ready for selection; does Bruce restore him to this starting role or continue with the hot keeper? I tend to be in the camp of when a starter is healthy again, he gets his position back; keeper is one position where I might go against that rule.  DeAndre Yedlin was pretty much set to be gone in the January transfer window but has made the most of the chances he's been given.  All in all, things may not be so bad Tyneside as I feared.

 

Boxing Day

Beer was flowing by 11:10 am at 6911

Got off to a great start with the 2-2 back-and-forth draw between Leicester and Man United, with both scoring late.  Onto a strange 3-0 win for Aston Villa over Crystal Palace.  Villa grabbed an early goal and were looking pretty good until Mings got goaded into two quick yellows from the infernally annoying Wilfried Zaha.  That slowed Aston Villa not a wit and they added shorthanded goals at 66 and 76 minutes.  Our transitive property calculation had forecast a 14-2 win and that well might have been the score with a full strength squad.  The really good news is that because of this match, we did not have to watch what reads like a less than scintillating 0-0 draw between Fulham and Southampton.  Expected goals were .9 to .35; I guess the Saints really do miss Danny Ings.

Steve: Open a beer, Aston Villa score

Dennis: That leads to alcoholism

Next was Mikel Arteta's possible swan song with Arsenal hosting Chelsea.  The Gunners reacted well to the pressure and put a 3-1 hurting on the Blues.  Though the visitors had plenty of chances, somehow this seemed like a blowout, with Chelsea only getting a consolation goal late.  With an easier set of fixtures on the horizon, this is probably enough to get Arteta through January.

Saving the worst for last, we then tuned in for Newcastle at Man City.  Interesting pre-match news that Jesus had been stricken with covid-19, proving again how pervasive this virus is.  The Magpies plan to bunker in got derailed when Gundogan scored a mere 14 minutes in.  Still, the lads did play good defense and didn't surrender a second until 55 minutes.  Of course, at that point the match was over and with sleet falling the best thing would have been for the 4th official to signal that there would be negative 30 minutes of stoppage time.  That would have been a great holiday gift to everyone.  Is there any better indication of how bad things are that an 0-2 loss at home feels like a draw?

Your alternative to the Newcastle nonsense would have been to switch over to Peacock to watch Sheffield United cough up points after the 80th minute again.  Sigurdsson's goal gave Everton a 1-0 win and, for the moment, second in the table.  Chris Wilder's position keeps getting more tenuous.

Except for struggling through a Newcastle match in which it was clear they had no chance, the Boxing Day viewing on balance was first rate.

A bad omen for West Ham? Moyes casts a wary eye

Sunday's fixtures didn't offer much hope for interesting contests but ended up being entertaining.  I only saw the end of Leeds 1-0 win over Burnley that looked tense if not filled with goals.  West Ham - Brighton featured the Hammers twice rallying from a goal down to get a 2-2 draw.  Liverpool never got untracked and coughed up a late goal at home for a 1-1 draw versus West Brom.  Is Sam Allardyce going to burnish his reputation - detailed here - as a relegation fighter?  The weekend finished with another 1-1 draw, this time a highly entertaining contest between Spurs and Wolves, though Tottenham supporters probably see it as two more points lost.

Forever Afternoon (Tuesday?) (apologies to the Moody Blues)

A treat for fans but a major pain for the players was the mid-week matchweek 16.  Some played with just one day rest.  Monday was excellent with  two more 1-1 draws.  Palace caused Leicester all kinds of headaches but Harvey Barnes rescued a point for the Foxes with an 83rd minute goal.  Aston Villa did the same to Chelsea. Suddenly a prolific goal scorer, Anwar El Ghazi got a second half tally to earn the Villan a 1-1 draw.  The Blues have just 4 points in last five matches.  Aston Villa, on two days rest, missing Mings with red card suspension, looked solid.  Could they be top six material this year?

There were four contests at 1 pm on Tuesday.  None involved any of the top eight teams.  Five of the six clubs below Newcastle (at least going into the matches) in the table were in action.  Hard to complain about having a choice of four different matches on a Tuesday afternoon but this did not look like an appetizing menu.  In fact, it was not.  Five teams failed to score a goal.  There was a 0-0 draw (Southampton - West Ham) and a 5-0 blowout (Leeds over West Brom, definitely not burnishing Big Sam's credentials as a relegation fighter).  Dennis went with the Burnley - Sheffield United match that ended 1-0 in favor of the Clarets,  adding to Chris Wilder's misery.  He's still on the job as we speak but has the highest odds of being the next to go.  I went the easy route with the Brighton - Arsenal match on NBCSN.  Not much to talk about there either.  Lacazette scored the match's only goal 29 seconds after entering the contest.  Some praise was heard for Arteta's decision to put him in but Dennis asks how much credit can you give a manager for bringing on the team's leading scorer in a scoreless match?  Kind of obvious n'est-ce pas?

Tuesday afternoon was not a total loss as Man United and Wolves were evenly matched in the 3 pm contest that was settled with a stoppage time goal from Marcus Rashford.

Wednesday ended up being an abbreviated schedule with just the Liverpool Newcastle contest discussed above.  That was due to postponement of the Fulham - Tottenham match due to covid issues at Fulham.  That was the second post- Christmas match lost to the virus - Monday's Everton Man City fixture had to be rescheduled.  There were 18 positive tests last week, the highest of the season.  The lower leagues are really struggling with the virus as nearly 50 matches had to be postponed in the last week.  Rumors of a two-week break after the FA Cup weekend (1/8-11) briefly surfaced but were quickly dispelled by league officials.  With all the problems in the lower tiers, one wonders if that will actually (or even should) happen.

The Continuing Saga of VAR

1) A developing trend I'm noticing is a reluctance to overturn calls on the field unless it's a clear mistake.  This leads to a the next point, namely that:

2) The goal of VAR is not "to get the call right" but to eliminate egregious errors.  I saw several examples this weekend of calls that looked wrong to me that weren't overturned because it wasn't a clear and obvious error by the referee.  I am fine with that.

3) During last week's Carabao League Cup matches, I saw several incidents where the first instinct of the players and coaches was that VAR would correct the referee's mistake.  Except they don't use VAR in the League Cup.  Everybody hates VAR until it's not around.

You Didn't Ask But We Researched It Anyway

After last week's research on Steve Bruce, Sam Allardyce and David Moyes, I came up with the question:

How many managers have had:

- at least 10 gigs

- at least one in the Premier League  but not with a top six club (Liverpool, Chelsea, Man United, Man City, Arsenal, Tottenham)

- never managed a national team

For the purposes of this count, we are excluding caretaker roles.  So far, Jeff H and I have identified three - Steve Bruce, Tony Pulis and Neal Warnock.  Tested and rejected include Mark Hughes, Alan Pardew, Harry Redknapp (Tottenham but also Jordan!) Nigel Pearson, Ron Koeman, Claude Puel, Roy Hodgson (Liverpool plus England), Paul Lambert (only 9 gigs), Claudio Ranieri (Chelsea and Greece) Steve McClaren (England) and Slaven Bilic.  We'll continue to survey the field.

The Home Stretch

Assuming no more matches get postponed by covid, Matchweek 17 will unfold over 1/1-1/4.  Best of the bunch is Chelsea - Man City on Sunday at 11:30 (all games on NBCSN unless otherwise noted).  I read that it is a go despite City's recent covid troubles.  The Cityzens (don't know when they started using the alternative spelling) haven't exactly been overwhelming, with some puzzling draws and narrow wins over lesser opponents; still, they haven't lost since late November.  Chelsea on the other hand, are clearly struggling.  A key contest for both.

We'll look in with great interest at the 3 pm New Year's Day contest between Man United and Aston Villa, two of the more in-form sides right now.  The Red Devils are clear favorites (unbeaten in their last eight, second in the table) but Aston Villa haven't been too troubled by the odds lately.   Mings will be back to bolster the defense.  Big test, but almost a no lose situation for Aston Villa.  The other New Year's Day clash (12:30) is Everton - West Ham.  The Toffees will be favored at home.

Newcastle face what on paper is another unwinnable fixture versus Leicester on Sunday at 9:15.  Probably will have to bunker in a bit for that one too.  Hayden is out with a suspension due to accumulated yellow cards.  Fortunately Shelvey should be ready so we might see him paired with Matty Longstaff in the defensive midfield.  

For those looking for an EPL Sack race match up, Saturday's 10 am Crystal Palace vs Sheffield United will do well.  Eagles' Roy Hodgson has seen his odds rise to third highest, behind only Arteta and Chris Wilder.  Sitting on just two points through 16 matches, you wonder if Wilder survives a loss here.  Mikel Arteta, in contrast, may see continued improvement if the Gunners can take care of West Brom Saturday ( 2pm on Peacock).  

Spurs better have their guard up against Leeds (Saturday 7:30). Only Liverpool, Man United and Chelsea have scored more.  The good news is that only West Brom have conceded more.  Will be interesting to see if Mourinho loosen the reins at all for this one.  Given Leeds scoring prowess, probably not.

Rounding out the schedule, we have Brighton - Wolves as the Saturday 12:30 feature fixture on NBC (could be surprisingly competitive), Burnley - Fulham (maybe) Sunday at 7 am (you don't need a note from your doctor to skip this one) and Southampton - Liverpool Monday at 3 pm.

We'll be back next week with the BFS exclusive Santa ratings for the 40 38 (37?) holiday fixture period.  

Another One Santa Christmas

Newcastle opened the 17-day 4-match Holiday fixture period with a disappointing draw home to a shorthanded Fulham.  The worst part is that this will likely be the high point of the "festive" season for the Magpies.  With matches still to go versus Man City, Liverpool and Leicester, the holiday point gathering may be done for Newcastle.  In other words, Newcastle are heading for another one Santa (out of five) rating for the holidays.

The own goal off Ritchie was not wholly undeserved for Fulham

The Cottagers clearly had the run of play in the first half and though the own goal off Matt Ritchie was unlucky, the 1-0 halftime lead for Fulham was deserved.  Not much better in the second half until a beautiful pass from Almiron sprung Wilson in on goal.  Fulham defender Joachim Andersen fouled him.  VAR was necessary to determine whether 1) the foul was inside the 18 and 2) whether this was DOGSO.  The answer to both questions was it is a close call but yes.  Wilson dispatched the PK and for a few minutes hopes of snatching all three points here seemed realistic.  But the Magpies never really pressed their advantage and even had some scary moments around their own goal.  In fact, the 1-1 result is a lucky one for Newcastle.  

Frustration was tempered a little by the club's struggles with covid.  Tuesday brought news that those challenges were greater than I had realized.  I thought that Lascelles and Saint Maximin had been missing due to nagging injuries.  This article says the issue is lingering effects of the virus.  At least five players were sick at some point, which has to have taken a physical and mental toll on the team.  Of course, in some ways, the frustration turns to how/why was the outbreak so bad.  

Naughty or Nice

Referees were busy sorting out the naughty and nice this weekend, giving out 30 yellows and three reds to the naughty. Besides the red card for Fulham, Graham Scott also showed four yellows in that one.  Highest output for cards was Brighton - Sheffield United, where Peter Bankes gave the Blades' John Lundstram a red but also showed six yellows.  Brighton took 47 minutes to score against shorthanded Sheffield and the 1-1 draw didn't help either side.  Chris Wilder once again saw points slip away in the closing stages.

Another cardfest was the Aston Villa 3-0 win over West Brom, in which the Baggies Jake Livermore was sent off at 37 minutes and three others got yellows.  The Villans were kind to the home side, content with their 1-0 lead for much of the match, only adding two very late.  Dennis didn't think much of the strategy and would have preferred an insurance goal much earlier than 84 minutes.

There were four yellows each in the Man City - Southampton, Tottenham - Leicester, and Everton-Arsenal contests. Man City scored early but the Saints stayed in the contest the whole way and the 1-0 final is reflective of how tight the match was.  The bad news for Southampton was Danny Ings coming off with a hamstring injury.  I couldn't find a timeline for his return but he's a big miss for them.  Spurs - Leicester was a bit tepid for the neutral, who might have expected a more wide open, high scoring affair.  The Foxes managed a PK from Vardy and an own goal from Alderweireld in a 2-0 win in a match that never seemed to get going.

At Everton, Arsenal's 1-2 loss did nothing for Mikel Arteta's prospects of making it to the new year as manager.  With the score 2-1 at halftime, I speculated that a clerk in Arsenal's home office was already working on a draft press release of Arteta's sacking.  Dennis suggested that, given how far the Gunners have fallen, this needed to go to Monty Python levels, and that the clerk should be sacked, the person who announced that the clerk was sacked should be sacked, etc.  Offering an opposing view, Jamie Garragher suggests here that Arteta deserves more time:

But they need a few more players in the January transfer window. If Arteta can get six or seven players in then he can be judged on the job that he's doing.

What, only six or seven new players?  Why not the whole team?  That's some awesome analysis.  On the other hand, both Dennis and Jamie may have a larger point here.  The depth of this dip is so large can it really be pinned on Arteta?  Maybe this is indeed an organizational problem.

In contrast to other contests, there were no cards in Chelsea's convincing 3-0 win over West Ham.  That was a step in the right direction for the Blues.  Wolves do seem to really miss Jimenez and stumbled to a 1-2 loss at Burnley, who were probably never as bad as they seemed earlier this season.

Transitive Property

1) Liverpool beat Crystal Palace 7-0.  Aston Villa beat Liverpool 7-2.  Therefore, Aston Villa will beat Palace 14-2

2) Leeds beat Newcastle 5-2.  Man United beat Leeds 6-2.  Therefore, Man United will beat Newcastle 11-4

Not so sure about the former but the latter does seem a real possibility.  Well, except for Newcastle scoring 4.

The highlight of the Liverpool match was the Reds taking the "foot off the gas" by replacing Sadio Mane' with Salah at 57 minutes with the score 4-0.  The Egyptian proceeded to get an assist, then two goals of his own to complete the rout.  Also, the rout wiped out Palace's six-goal differential advantage over Newcastle and dropped them below the Magpies in the table.

In the Man United match, I was struck by the total inability of Leeds to do anything but attack, regardless of the score.  Game highlights can be seen here.  They simply don't know any other way.  As for Man United, we note the trend of their first goal coming earlier and earlier  (65th minute vs Southampton, 26th minute vs Sheffield United, 2nd minute vs Leeds); we project that they will have a 1-0 lead before their Boxing Day match with Leicester even kicks off.  Kind of like when Sir Alex was in charge.

This Isn't a Body Building Competition

Baby oil: better than tear-away jerseys

Ever noticed how Adama Traore's arms seem to glisten, like they've been oiled?  Well, that's because they have been.  Traore has suffered from shoulder problems and defenders grabbing at his arms to deal with his pace hasn't helped.  They got him a shoulder brace but found that lubricating his arms with baby oil makes it harder for opponents to grab him.  I am not making this up.   He may need to consider changing brands though.  After last year's incredible season, he has yet to record an assist or goal.

Because You Asked

To prove that we do read the comments section, we did look at the managerial careers of Sam Allardyce, Steve Bruce and David Moyes.  Bruce has had 11 posts with 10 different teams (twice at Wigan!?) while Allardyce has managed 11 different squads.  Neither have ever led a "top six" side. Both have managed Sunderland, Newcastle and Crystal Palace.  Both have numerous instances of tenures that didn't last 100 games (Bruce 7, Allardyce 6).  We have to give a slight edge to Allardyce, whose career has lately seen more Premier League positions, while Bruce seems to shuffle back and forth between the first and second tier.  

Moyes doesn't really belong in this group as he's only had seven gigs with six clubs (in his second spell at West Ham).  Plus, he had one with a top six (Man United) side and he's managed outside England (Real Sociedad).  Therefore, we're reluctant to put him in the journeyman manager category just yet.  

Meanwhile at the North Pole

BFS Travel Coordinator Jeff K sends us this story about a team in Norway.  Bodo/Glimt (not a character in Star Wars spin-off The Mandalorian) recently won its first Norwegian championship.  Pretty cool for a team located just north of the Arctic Circle.  Gotta love a team that has fans willing to rent cherry pickers just so they could watch their side play during the pandemic restrictions.  As Jeff notes, a feel good soccer story.

On Your Marks, Get Set, Watch

Twenty matches in five days starting Saturday.  Frankly, not every one is a classic and there are some concurrent matches so you may be forgiven if you skip a few.

Saturday is packed from beginning to end, if only because both BFS sides are in action.  The whole thing opens with the best match of the 20 - Leicester vs Man United at 7:30 on NBCSN.  Despite looking like two different teams the whole season, there is Man United sitting third in the table, with a game in hand no less.  Leicester have had some slips but have worked their way to second place.  At 538 they give a slight edge to Man United.  This one looks good and hope it doesn't disappoint.

We'll move right on to Aston Villa - Crystal Palace at 10 am on NBCSN; this looks like a good chance for the Villans to establish their upper mid-table credentials.  Just keep going as the NBC feature match is Arsenal hosting Chelsea on NBC.  After Arsenal's League Cup embarrassment against Man City, this may be Arteta's last chance; Chelsea have slipped occasionally but look pretty solid.

Saturday ends with an expected slaughter of Magpies (similar to a murder of crows?) as Newcastle travel to the Etihad to face Man City (3 pm on NBCSN); 538 has this as 89/2/9, meaning Newcastle have a 2% chance of winning but a solid 9% of getting a draw.

Can't say the next four days are quite as packed.  We'll definitely take in Aston Villa as they travel to Chelsea (Monday at 12:30 on NBCSN) and Newcastle's second projected beat down as they host Liverpool on Wednesday (3 pm on NBCSN); that one's only 66/14/19 in favor of the Reds.

A few others that catch our eye include:

Wolves - Tottenham Sunday at 2:15 pm on NBCSN

Everton - Man City Monday at 3 pm on Peacock

Brighton - Arsenal Tuesday at 1 pm on NBCSN (projected closest match of week plus maybe Arteta's last gasp or new manager's first outing)

The whole schedule is here if none of these float your boat.  Watch, but do so with proper social distancing.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.

Let It Snow

Thoughtful of the EPL to have Matchweek 13 coincide with a major snow event in the Northeast.  Great set of fixtures as the flakes were falling.  Coming on the heels of an interesting weekend, a good seven days of football.

Covid-19 Blowback

Recall that Newcastle's training ground was shut down for over a week and their match with Aston Villa postponed after a serious outbreak of covid-19 in the ranks.  Frankly, in their latest two games, it showed as there were missing players and fitness issues.  Home against West Brom, they managed two moments of quality and 90 minutes of mediocrity to escape with a 2-1 win.  An early (23 seconds) goal from Almiron offered hope of an easy day but for the next 60 minutes they were awful.  They did get better after the Baggies leveled things at 50 minutes.  Finally sub Jacob Murphy fed a beautiful cross to sub Dwight Gayle for the game winner at 82 minutes.  Gayle's entry into the match had changed the dynamic so it wasn't a total surprise and was good enough to be this week's YouTubeableMoment.

Picture says it all - Newcastle ran out of gas at Leeds

Wednesday they were close with Leeds until they weren't in a 2-5 loss.  They did score first again, clearly against the run of play.  Leeds pressure was too much and they drew even within 10 minutes.  At 60 minutes (1-1 at the time) I texted Dennis that you could see that Leeds were going to blow the Magpies doors in based on the difference in fitness levels.  They scored within a minute.  Ciaran Clark got that one back pretty quickly.  Didn't change my forecast and sure enough, Leeds poured in three goals between 77 and 88 minutes.  Leeds are known for their fitness levels and their constant attack.  It was just too much for that group of Magpies.  Hadn't really hoped for more than a draw here anyway, though the final margin was a bit upsetting.

Dropped Points

The top ten sides took a bit of a beating in Matchweeks 12 and 13, resulting in some reshuffling in the table.  No one took a bigger hit than Chelsea, who dropped six points in falling 0-1 to Everton and 1-2 to Wolves. In the second match, Chelsea looked in trouble with a late PK call for fouling Neto in the box until VAR saved them.  Turns out they were still in trouble as Neto made a great run to score the game winner in the 95th minute.  The Blues tumble to 7th as a result.

Not a great set for Spurs either.  They ran into an incredibly hot keeper in Vicente Guaita, who helped Crystal Palace steal a 1-1 draw.  Next was Liverpool and again Spurs had their chances that went unfinished.  Firmino made them pay with a late goal for a 2-1 victory.  That's five points dropped for those keeping track at home.  At least they hold onto second for the moment.

Man City is next on the list as the Citizens dropped four points in draws with Man United and West Brom.  The derby was a 0-0 bust and you sense that United was the happier crew with that result.  I figured the Baggies were toast after that.  Instead City struggled to finish and all they got for their domination of play was a 1-1 draw.  They now sit 9th in the table.  Unfortunately for Simon Bilic, this draw was not enough to save his job (see below).

Well somebody had to be getting points, right?  Everton were as they beat Chelsea and followed it up with a 2-0, on the road, against Leicester. After a bumpy stretch, the Toffees are back up to 5th.  Man United only dropped two points (draw with Man City) and may have figured out that it's better to start playing before the second half whistle.  They fell behind early to Sheffield United on a horrible blunder by Henderson (who started in place of DeGea); however, this time they responded much earlier and were in front by the 33rd minute on their way to a sort of easy 3-2 win.  Southampton were another side to drop only two, thumping Sheffield United and drawing with Arsenal.  Yes, that is Southampton in 3rd place right now.

Firmino had most important goal of the week,
 a 90th minute winner against Spurs

Liverpool did drop points in a 1-1 draw with Fulham. Maybe they were looking ahead to the marquee match up with Spurs.  They did see a couple of VAR calls go their way so maybe those things even out.  And the win over Tottenham puts them top of the table.

We can't forget Aston Villa here.  They kinda stole one from Wolves on a PK in stoppage time.  Probably deserved a draw instead of a 1-0 win.  On the other hand, they probably played well enough to win against Burnley but had to settle for a 0-0 draw.  Wait, 27 shots and no goals?  El Ghazi did a great Joelinton impression - worked his ass off, creating chances and taking eight shots with nothing to show for it.  The four points seem about right and the Villans sit in 11th.  

Sack Race

We have been remiss in not discussing the prospects of managers being fired.  I had Mikel Arteta at the top of the list but he was beaten out by Simon Bilic, who got sacked even after grabbing a draw with Man City.  The EPL Managers Revolving Door continues as Sam Allardyce was named as Bilic's replacement. Recall that Bilic replaced Allardyce at West Ham.  

Gunners fan demonstrates 

After a loss to Burnley and a draw with Southampton, you figure Arteta's still on thin ice.  They are 15th in the table, just five points above the relegation zone.  Only Fulham, West Brom and Sheffield United have more losses.  Next two matches are Everton and Chelsea.  Does Arteta make it to the New Year without results in both?

Chris Wilder is also on the hot seat with Sheffield United stuck in last with just one point (a draw with Fulham).  I didn't think they had massive personnel turnover, though they did lose keeper Dean Henderson as Man United weren't willing to send him out on loan again.  

Others near the top include Ol Gunner (will the real Man United please stand up), Scott Parker (he has reworked Fulham's lineup with some apparent success), Sean Dyche (eight points from last five matches may signal improvements at Burnley) and Steve Bruce (Newcastle managers, by rule, must be in the top six).  

Text Conversations That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: I thought you said Leeds key defender was hurt

Steve: No, I said he was Ayling

and

Dennis: Did you just call Aguero the Anti-christ

Steve: No, I said Aguero will probably replace Jesus

Text Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Jeff H: What would you rather have on your team shirt: Ideal Boilers [West Brom] or Bimbo [Union]?

Steve: Why not Killian's Hardware [local but legendary store in Chestnut Hill]

Jeff H: I mean Man United have Kohler on their shirts but it doesn't say Kohler Toilets

Goodbye Columbus Seattle

A very respectable MLS Cup Final with the Columbus Crew taking the measure of the Seattle Sounders 3-0.  The game was quite watchable and didn't feel like a blowout. This was the last match to be played in Mapfre Stadium, one of the first soccer-specific venues in the US.  

MLS did a decent job of getting this season in despite the pandemic.  Sure, it wasn't quite as tidy as the EPL given the shortened season and not everybody played the same number of matches.  However, the fact that most of the action was intra-conference lends an air of legitimacy to the title races in each conference.  We say that not just because the Union won the Eastern Conference.  Put us down for a "no" on the expanded playoffs though.

No More Doops in the Old Onion Bag

Tommy Smyth won't be returning to the Union broadcast booth.  Mixed feelings there as he could be colorful but was turning into a bit of a homer.  The excellent news is that he'll be replaced by Danny Higginbotham, who currently works as an analyst for NBCSN.  We've enjoyed his insightful comments there and are thrilled to have him on board.  Apparently his wife is from the area so that's how we got him.

Correction: 17 Days of Football

Either we didn't read the calendar correctly or there were last minute scheduling changes.  Anyway, we will be treated to four match weeks over the next 17 days running from 12/19 to 1/4.  Everybody gets four matches in this stretch, including one with a nasty turnaround of two days for most clubs.  First is this weekend (Saturday - Monday).  Then there is the Boxing Day set (Saturday 12/26 or Sunday 12/27).  This is followed quickly by the late December midweek set (Monday 12/28, Tuesday 12/29 and Wednesday 12/30).  We finish with the New Year's set running from 1/1 to 1/4.  Football on New Year's Day, woo woo.

This weekend returns to the no concurrent match format and with this set of fixtures, that is a good thing.  All 10 have importance in one way or another.

From the BFS perspective, both Newcastle home against Fulham on Saturday at 3 pm on Peacock and Aston Villa traveling to West Brom on Sunday at 2:15 on NBCSN really need to be wins.  Pretty comfortable about the latter but if the Magpies continue their covid hangover, Fulham could surprise them.

Two top table matchups include Southampton hosting Man City at 10 am on Saturday (NBCSN) and Tottenham vs Leicester at 9:15 on Sunday (NBCSN).  In the former, the Saints credentials as a top six side will be under review; City are big favorites even on the road but their recent scoring difficulties make me wonder.  Spurs and Foxes is a 2-4 matchup.  Liverpool have Crystal Palace on the road at 7:30 on Saturday on NBCSN; the Reds are likely to take of business there.

Among the more competitive fixtures we have Everton hosting Arsenal as the NBC feature match Saturday at 12:30.  At 538, Everton is 41/33 favorite (with 26% chance of a draw).  The Toffees may have found their mojo while Arteta may be fighting for his job.  Even tighter is the Burnley Wolves match on Monday at 12:30 on NBCSN; 538 has that one at 31/36/31 favoring Wolves.  Burnley don't yield much at home and Wolves scoring punch is diminished so this might be a tight, low-scoring affair.

Chelsea and Man United have similar fixtures.  The Blues face West Ham at home (Monday at 3 pm on NBCSN) and really should be okay here but recent form has been shaky.  Man United get Leeds at home  (11:30 on Sunday on NBSCN); like Chelsea, this really shouldn't be a difficult win but the Red Devils penchant for showing up late coupled with Leeds' attacking leaves some room for doubt.

Even Brighton - Sheffield United (stuck with the 7 am Sunday start on Peacock) has some drama.  Chris Wilder is hanging on as the Blades manager and this might be one of the chances to grab a lifeline.  

Sounds like we need more snow...

You Cannot Lose If You Do Not Play

The good news is that neither Newcastle nor Aston Villa dropped any points this weekend.  Of course the bad news that neither played because of the covid outbreak inside the Newcastle team.  Looks like up to five players or employees tested positive at some point and the training ground was closed through Monday.  Saturday's fixture with West Brom was also apparently in doubt.  Fortunately, they were able to open the facilities on Tuesday and the match is still on.  Leaguewide, the number of positive tests for the last five weeks are 4, 16, 8, 10,and 14; these are out of approximately 1,500 tests per week so the positivity rate is actually pretty low.  This has been a BFS coronavirus special update and we now return you to your regular blog.

Jose doesn't need a license to park the bus

We'll start with the North London derby, which we have to classify as disappointing for the neutral. Spurs fans don't care and will no doubt be thrilled with the 2-0 win over Arsenal.  The first half was actually pretty good. Mourinho's side was more than happy to concede possession to the Gunners but Spurs generated enough solid counterattacks to keep things interesting.  Well, more than interesting in that they got two goals from those counters.  Check out this shot from Son, this week's YouTubeableMoment.  When Kane added a second in first half stoppage time, you knew Arsenal were in trouble.  Indeed, Mourinho reined in the troops and though Arsenal's possession and position advantage would improve, no goals were forthcoming.  BFS Tactics Consultant Alex S sent us the picture(left) which aptly describes the second half tactic known colloquially as "parking the bus."  Of course the stats look ridiculous - possession 30/70, shots 5/11, shots on target 3/2, and expected goals .3/1.5.  Here's the thing though, most of that expected goal difference is based on Non-shot expected goals, which means that while Arsenal got the ball into dangerous locations, they just couldn't generate good shots.  So we're left with the thought that while maybe Tottenham were a little lucky in that Son hit that incredible shot, this result was exactly how Mourinho had mapped it out.  Damn, it hurts to give him credit.

You Can't Go Home Again

But you can return with a different team and score. Patrick Bamford was on the Chelsea roster for a while but spent most of his time on loan and never featured for the club.  That probably made his goal at Stamford Bridge in the 4th minute all that much sweeter.  You just have to love a team like this that plays attacking football regardless of the odds.  And Leeds gave the Blues all they could want for the full 90 minutes. But quality will out as they say and Chelsea ground out a 3-1 win that took them to the top of the table on Saturday.  Man City also ground out a 2-0 win against Fulham that wasn't actually as close as the score suggests.  They are slowly creeping their way back up the standings.  Liverpool finally got a VAR decision to go their way and pretty much steamrollered Wolves on the way to a 4-0 lead.  

Maybe underdogs giving the favored sides a tough time was the weekend's theme.  We warned Everton about playing at Turf Moor but did they listen? No, and they failed their second straight pop quiz as Burnley held them to a 1-1 draw.  Sheffield United looked set to grab a desperately needed point against Leicester until Jamie Vardy destroyed that idea with a 90th minute goal.  West Ham led Man United into the 65th minute before Paul Pogba's laser shot leveled things.  Greenwood added a second three minutes later and Rashford capped the scoring with another 10 minutes after that.  So what is it with the Red Devils and the first half?  They got away with it twice in EPL action but when they let RB Leipzig get up 3-0 in Champions League action, no amount of furious comeback could save them. PS - they finished 3rd in the group and are dropping back into Europa League.  In the non-derby derby, Brighton played well enough to earn a draw against Southampton, except for the little matter of the late foul in the box.  Danny Ings coolly converted that for a 2-1 win for the Saints.

He Would Look Good in Forest Green 

Two goals in two games for Gallagher

Conor Gallagher, on loan from Chelsea, scored for the second consecutive week for West Brom.  I tried to get him on loan for my FM Forest Green side but Chelsea basically said we were not good enough.  Playing in League One, I'm used to that.  We are on track for promotion to the Championship Division and will try again next year.  Gallagher's goal was about the only good thing that happened to West Brom in their 1-5 thrashing at the hands of Crystal Palace.  Playing short a man for more than half the match didn't help.  

One Out of Two Ain't Bad

Ain't great either but at least one of the MLS conference finals was exciting.  That would not be the Columbus 1-0 win over New England.  Can't really remember much about that except wishing the Carlos Gil played for somebody else so I could root for him more fully.

The Western final was much more interesting.  Minnesota played Seattle surprisingly tough, especially in the Sounders home venue.  A free kick from Reynoso gave the Loons a 1-0 first half lead.  Dibassy's header at 67 minutes doubled the lead and Minnesota looked good for the upset.  Enter substitute Will Bruin.  The boxscore says he entered the match at the 75th minute and scored in the 75th minute.  Talk about an impact sub.  So that set up a barnburner finish.  When Ruidiax leveled things in the 89th minute, I headed to the stove to make some tea to drink during the extra time and possible penalty shootout.  I never even got the water started as Gustav Svensson (also a late sub) slipped a header past the Minnesota keeper in stoppage time.  You can see that goal here.  I feel a little bad for Minnesota but have to say Seattle are probably the better team.  Definitely a welcome view after some of the second and third round boredom.

The 12 14 Days of Christmas

With Boxing Day falling on a Saturday (a regular match day), the holiday period will not be as congested as in previous years.  Our designated 14 Days of Christmas will run from December 19 to January 2, during which time, coronavirus willing, each team will play three matches.  Usually they'd have four matches in that time frame.  We thought about including the upcoming mid-week matches in the mix but then it would be the 19 Days of Christmas and that was getting unwieldy.  We will of course provide our exclusive holiday ratings to assess how your team did.

Extended Weekend

EPL will cram in an extra match week here, with one set of matches Friday-Sunday and a second set Tuesday-Thursday.  Remind me to clear my work calendar.  The bad news is that with such a tight schedule, there will be some concurrent matches.  As of this writing, I didn't see network assignments for the week day games so you'll have to check your local listings.

We of course will be taking in Newcastle-West Brom Saturday at 10 am on Peacock and Leeds-Newcastle on Wednesday at 1 pm.  I'd like to think there's at least four points there.  Anything other than a win hosting the Baggies is a problem.  Leeds away could be difficult so I'm keeping expectations down there; a draw would be great.  We'll also be looking in on Aston Villa when they travel to Wolves on Saturday at 7:30 on Peacock and when they host Burnley at 1 pm on Thursday.  A point for the Villans at Molineux would be great and they'll be thinking all three at home to the Clarets.  

The two top matches on the list look to be the Manchester derby at 12:30 on Saturday on NBC and Liverpool - Tottenham at 3 pm on Wednesday.  Pending the weekend's results, the latter could be for undisputed possession of first place.  Other matches to consider include Everton - Chelsea at 3 pm on Saturday on Peacock, Wolves - Chelsea at 1 pm on Tuesday, and Arsenal - Southampton at 1 pm on Wednesday.  We mention the latter as that is one of those reality check type fixtures.  The Saints will want to prove their 5th place standing is no fluke and the Gunners will be looking to show they aren't as bad as they've played so far this year (15th place?).  And I'll recommend Friday's 3 pm contest between Leeds and West Ham on NBCSN for two reasons.  First, it looks to be a very competitive contest.  Second, what else are you going to be doing late on a December Friday afternoon?

Don't forget the MLS title match with Columbus - Seattle at 8:30 on Saturday night on Fox.  Notably, 538 has this at 50/50.  Have reasonably high expectations for a good contest here.

Only two footballless days in the next 11 days.  This is a good thing as the days get shorter.

When Your Team Wins on Friday

The whole weekend is better.   You watch the other matches less concerned about how the results might affect your team.  The beer is colder.  Etc.

Recall that my wish for the match with Crystal Palace wasn't a result but simply that the Magpies be competitive.  And they were.  They gave as good as they got throughout the match.  The problem was  that all the best chances kept falling to Joe L Linton, who was not making the most of them.  So the match proceeded into the late stages at 0-0.  Finally one of scoring opportunities came to Callum Wilson and he sweetly nutmegged the keeper for the lead in the 88th minute.  An easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  We should be fair to Mr. Linton - it was his pass that sprung Wilson.  Also, he ended up scoring an insurance goal a few minutes later.  Yeah it was deflected but it was still credited to him as opposed to an own goal. 

Aside from getting Wilson back, the Magpies benefited from the return of Jonjo Shelvey and his ability to pick out the long pass.  Matt Ritchie also made his return.  Darlow had a few more saves, adding to his league-leading total; good that he's making them, bad that he's faced so many shots.  They did manage to win without Saint-Maximin and Lascelles.  A statistical mixed bag - worse possession, more shots, equal expected goals.  I saw this as a smash-and-grab win from a match that was probably a draw.  Love the three points stashed away for a rainy day.

Sunday's Test Results

We'll go with a friendlier pass/fail grading system given the pandemic.

Man United's answer man Edinson Cavani

Manchester United - Pass  They were heading towards fail until they starting cheating off of Edinson Cavani, who seemed to have all the answers.  The Uruguayan came on to start the second half with the Red Devils down 0-2 and not looking good at all.  All he did was get the assist for Bruno Fernandes at 60 minutes, the equalizer at 74 and the game winner two minutes into stoppage time.  You can fault them for having to pull the 3-2 win out of the fire but the bottom line is they did get the three points.

Spurs - Pass  They are Newcastle with talent.  By that I mean they are more than willing to cede possession to their opponent, confident that the defense will yield few serious goal scoring opportunities while their counterattacking prowess will give them sufficient scoring opportunities.  The 0-0 draw with Chelsea was not beautiful, other than the fact that they went into Stamford Bridge against a strong, in-form team and came away with a point.  

Wolves - Pass  Despite losing key players from last year (Jota, Doherty), this is a squad that looks determined to hang around the edge of European qualification anyway.  Their key test with Arsenal was made all the more difficult when Raul Jiminez was literally knocked out of the match with a head injury after a nasty collision with David Luiz.  They soldiered on and came away with a 2-1 win against the struggling Gunners.

Southampton - depends on the question  Taking Man United to stoppage time before falling 2-3 is not an awful result.  Probably doesn't feel that way after coughing up a 2-0 lead.  Holding on could have elevated their status.  Still, this looks like a good team that could compete for European qualification. 

Chelsea - Pass  Maybe lenient but hard to say a 0-0 draw versus a well-organized, disciplined Tottenham side is a failure.  There were a couple of chances after errors by Spurs' debuting defender Rodon that the Blues might have capitalized on and they did have the possession advantage.  Still, when two good sides battle to a draw like that, hard to say it was a failure.

Arsenal - Fail  No such leniency here.  Wolves are not a bad team but this was Arsenal at home and they managed just two shots on target.  Aubameyang had a couple of chances late but couldn't convert.  Expected goals say this was a Wolves win.  Also, kind of an ugly match with seven yellow cards.  So the Gunners sit 14th in the table, a point behind Newcastle.

Everton probably didn't realize there was a test this weekend so they failed the pop quiz, losing 0-1 to Leeds on a late goal.  They continue their slide down the table after a hot start.  They weren't the only ones to stumble.  Leicester somehow managed to lose at home 1-2 to Fulham, coughing up a chance to rise to second place. That upset vaulted the Cottagers back ahead of West Brom and out of the relegation zone. The Baggies had temporarily left that space after an important but not particularly scintillating 1-0 over hapless Sheffield United.  The Blades now have one point from 10 matches, the worst start in EPL history.  Man City had no trouble disposing of Burnley 5-0, which was nice in that I didn't have to spend much time with the dvr of that one.

Dennis and I were relatively confident of an Aston Villa result at West Ham and feel the manner of the 1-2 defeat confirms we were not far off.  Villa managed to allow a goal right at the start of each half.  They got one of them back on a nice shot from Jack Grealish (yeah, it was deflected but ever so slightly).  Watkins had a chance to level it in the 74th minute but crashed the bar with his PK attempt.  He also scored in stoppage time only to have it called back - correctly - for offside.  Aston Villa had all the stats in their favor, with possession at 66/34, shots at 16/6, shots on target 6/2 and expected goals 2.15/.65.  Of course, it's still a loss but this was eminently winnable. 

LiVARpool

Their fun with VAR continues.  In the 1-1 draw with Brighton, the Reds had two goals called back for offside after review and saw a stoppage time PK awarded to the Seagulls after the VAR spotted an foul on Andy Robertson.  We stress that we believe all three calls were correct.  Just that it seems like VAR has not been Liverpool's friend this year.

MLLess

So the conference finals didn't have quite the same intrigue.  New England did pull off another upset, sending Orlando home with a 3-1 win in a chippy, not very pretty match that at times looked ready to disintegrate into a hockey match.  Nashville played Columbus tough for over 100 minutes, offering us the tantalizing possibility of a Eastern Conference final between the 7th and 8th seeds.  But Columbus prevailed in extra time so at least we'll have the 3rd seed in the conference final.

In the West, underdog FC Dallas battled gamely but the Seattle Sounders beat them again in the playoffs, this time 1-0.  Dallas did have a couple of close calls mid-way through the second half, including one shot cleared off the line, so it was not one-sided.  The MLS website refers to Seattle grinding out this win and that sounds about right.  The second semi was another upset, though not on the scale we've been seeing in these playoffs.  Fourth seed Minnesota jumped on Sporting KC for three goals in 12 minutes in the first half and never looked back.  Didn't see the match but the 0-3 final looks a little harsh based on the stats.  Sounds a little like the Union loss to NE; SKC missed some chances early and it cost them.

So we have 3 v 8 in the East and 2 v 4 in the West.  Top seeds missing all over the place yet surprisingly better than we might have expected after the first round.

Derby Delayed

Dennis and I were psyched for virtual viewing together of the BFS derby Friday afternoon.  Alas, covid, has run amok at the Newcastle training ground so the Aston Villa-Newcastle match has been postponed.  Dennis notes the possible incongruity of the league opening up the venues for limited fan attendance at the same moment the league is faced with its first postponement due to the virus.

Besides a Footballess Friday, we also have a Sunday full of Peacock telecasts.  Not funny guys.  

Feature match of the weekend is the North London Derby between Tottenham and Arsenal Sunday at 11:30.  BFS London Football Tour Guide Simon notes "Arsenal next?  It'll be good to play a team in the bottom half of the table😆😂."  Yikes, in the wrong hands, that could be bulletin board material. But Spurs heavy favorites here - 54/22/24 at 538. 

The weekend kicks off with Burnley-Everton Saturday at 7:30 on NBCSN; though it sounds tepid, this might actually be pretty competitive.  Everton have come back to Earth and Burnley don't concede too many goals at home.  At 10 am, we would expect that Man City are going to harsh Fulham's mellow.  The NBC feature match at 12:30 is West Ham - Man United. Doesn't sound all that great but they have identical records over the last five matches so maybe it will be close.  Nah, I think the Hammers are a bit overrated at this point.  Doesn't mean I won't watch.  Saturday closes with the underdogs who refuse to play like underdogs - Leeds - taking on Chelsea at Stamford Bridge (3 pm on NBCSN).  I love watching these guys but up against the Blues at home is going to be tough.

I'll be sure to be up at 7 am on Sunday for West Brom hosting Crystal Palace.  Actually, like the Burnley-Everton contest, this is likely to be quite close and maybe a good watch for anyone up at that hour.  This is followed by Sheffield - Leicester at 9:15.  Will the Foxes stumble two weeks in a row?  I doubt it.  Next is the London Derby and Sunday concludes with Liverpool - Wolves at 2:15.  The odds are stacked against Wolves, especially without Jiminez, but still might be worth watching.  

The EPL matchweek finishes on Monday at 3 pm (NBCSN) with a South Coast Derby (we like the term though fans of both sides don't view it as a derby) between Brighton and Southampton.  The Seagulls are not as bad as their record suggests and may give the Saints a tough time here.

MLS playoffs are again overlaid on top of the EPL action.  The Eastern Conference final is Sunday at 3 pm on ABC featuring Columbus hosting New England.  Not a big fan of either of those.  The Western Conference final is December 7th (a date which will live in infamy) with Minnesota heading to Seattle.  The Eastern final could be very tight, with the improved and in-form Revolution likely to give Columbus a good battle.  I suspect Seattle is a big favorite taking on Minnesota in the comforts of their home Lumen Field.

Didn't even get to the Champions and Europa League stuff - group stage play ends with matches Tuesday-Thursday.  If you can't find something to watch, you're not trying hard enough.